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S&P 500 Stocks with Over 10% Target Price Downgrade in the 3rd Week of May

Strong Sell

UNH

UnitedHealth Group

S&P 500 Stocks with Over 10% Target Price Downgrade in the 3rd Week of May

Over the past one week (from May 9 to May 16, 2025), analyst reports indicate that a number of S&P 500 companies have had their target prices downgraded by more than 10%.This reflects a combination of changes in company fundamentals, macroeconomic variables, and shifts in industry competition. From a sell-side perspective, such target price downgrades can signal short-term downside pressure on stock prices, meaning investors should consider appropriate risk management or sell strategies.Below is a summary of stocks whose target prices have been revised down by more than 10% compared to one week ago. For each company, the target prices as of May 9 and May 16, 2025 are provided along with the percentage decline.UnitedHealth Group (UNH-US)Target Price (Mar 28, 2025): $ 450Target Price (Feb 28, 2025): $ 550Change: -18.2%Key Issue: A decline in credibility driven by the abrupt resignation of the CEO and a criminal investigation tied to Medicare fraud.While the reasons and extent of target price downgrades vary by company, overall, these revisions reflect common macroeconomic risks, such as economic recession fears, supply chain uncertainties, rising costs, intensifying competition.Additionally, some companies are affected by structural industry changes, such as fluctuations in EV battery demand and semiconductor industry trends.From a sell-side perspective, stocks experiencing significant target price cuts could face short-term downside pressure. Investors should consider risk management strategies, including portfolio rebalancing, short positions, market-driven adjustments – Stay alert to upcoming earnings reports, interest rate changes, and key economic indicators, as these can significantly impact volatility.By aligning investment decisions with broader market trends, investors can navigate these shifts with greater flexibility and strategic foresight.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Strong Sell

UNH

UnitedHealth Group

Buy the Second-Best Stock (May 14, 2025)

Neutral

TSLA

Tesla

Buy the Second-Best Stock (May 14, 2025)

According to Scott Nations, president of Nations Indexes, investors should consider taking a bullish stance on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) following a series of positive headlines surrounding the stock. Appearing on CNBC’s “Power Lunch” on Wednesday, Nations also discussed two of the day’s biggest stock stories and shared whether investors should consider buying or selling those names.Advanced Micro DevicesShares of the AI chipmaker jumped more than 4% on Wednesday after the company announced that its board had approved a $6 billion share repurchase program.Nations rated AMD a “buy,” pointing out that former President Donald Trump is reportedly planning to roll back restrictions on U.S. chip exports—something he said would be “positive for the entire sector.” He also called AMD the “second-best name” in the space, citing the company’s recent deal with Saudi firm Humain to help build out AI infrastructure, alongside Nvidia.“If you’re looking to invest in AI, this is a chance to buy at a 35% discount from its 52-week high,” Nations said. While AMD has rallied nearly 25% over the past month, it’s still down more than 2% year-to-date.AbbVieBiotech giant AbbVie saw its stock fall over 5% during Wednesday’s session.Citi downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral and lowered its price target by $5 to $205 per share, still implying over 15% upside. Analyst Geoff Meacham noted that despite AbbVie’s track record of “consistent beats and raised guidance,” the company’s late-stage pipeline appears weak relative to peers.“Fundamentals are solid right now,” Meacham wrote in a note to clients, “but as investors increasingly focus on pipeline strength, the impact of quarterly surprises could begin to fade.”Nations disagreed strongly with that take, calling the downgrade “truly foolish” and reiterating his “buy” rating on AbbVie. “Pipeline matters for every pharma company, but AbbVie keeps beating earnings expectations, raising dividends, and offers a solid 3.5% yield. It’s in a good space,” he said. The stock is down 8% over the past three months.TeslaTesla shares climbed 4% on Wednesday after Reuters, citing sources familiar with the matter, reported that the EV maker will begin shipping components for its Cybercab and Semi truck from China to the U.S. later this month. The report came after the U.S. and China agreed earlier this week to temporarily suspend certain tariffs for 90 days.The development comes as Tesla grapples with declining sales in China and intensifying competition from local automakers. “I see Tesla as a hold right now,” Nations said. “It’s good that they’re resuming imports from China, but don’t forget: there are still some hefty tariffs on Chinese goods. In about 85 days, those could jump again—maybe even triple.”Tesla shares surged nearly 26% last week but remain down about 14% during that same period, leaving the stock still in negative territory for the year.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Neutral

TSLA

Tesla

Toyota Hit Hardest by Trump Tariffs Among Global Carmakers (May 11, 2025)

Sell

Toyota Motor ADR Rep 10

Toyota Hit Hardest by Trump Tariffs Among Global Carmakers (May 11, 2025)

Toyota Motor Corp. (TM), the world’s largest automaker, is also the biggest casualty of Donald Trump’s auto-related trade war.Tariffs on imported cars and parts forced General Motors Co. to cut annual earnings guidance by up to $5 billion, while Ford Motor Co. faces a $1.5 billion hit. Toyota alone reported a $1.2 billion profit drop in just two months. The Japanese automaker now expects operating profit of 3.8 trillion yen ($26.1 billion) for the fiscal year ending March 2026, well below the 4.7 trillion yen analysts had forecast.Although Toyota has increased its U.S. production to cover over half of its sales in the country, it still depends heavily on imported models and components—about 1.2 million units annually. The White House has taken notice, and Trump named Toyota specifically in his controversial "Liberation Day" speech on April 2."Tariff-related details are still extremely fluid," said Toyota CEO Koji Sato last week. "It’s difficult to take concrete action or assess the impact right now."Japan’s chief trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa noted on April 30 that one Japanese automaker is losing about $1 million per hour due to current tariffs. That estimate aligns with Toyota’s expected $1.2 billion loss over a standard 730-hour month.Most imported vehicles became subject to a 25% U.S. tariff starting April 3, and most auto parts followed under the new duties as of May 3. Given that the U.S. remains the largest market for Japan’s top five carmakers, even modest tariff hikes could have oversized impacts on profitability.On May 8, the Trump administration reached its first trade agreement with the UK. In contrast, the U.S. posted a $68.5 billion goods trade deficit with Japan last year, compared to an $11.9 billion surplus with the UK.Some Japanese automakers are already repositioning global production to adjust. Nissan has halted U.S. orders for SUVs made in Mexico. Honda is shifting production of its hybrid Civic from Japan to the U.S.Toyota has made significant investments to expand its U.S. operations, including $13.9 billion for a new battery plant in North Carolina. However, the company is also committed to maintaining a robust domestic production base, with Chairman Akio Toyoda pledging to keep annual production in Japan at 3 million units.Globally, Toyota sold 10.8 million vehicles in 2024, with the U.S. accounting for just under one-quarter of the total. About half were produced locally, another 30% came from Canada and Mexico, and 281,000 units were imported directly from Japan.Toyota’s best-selling U.S. models—the RAV4 hybrid crossover and the Corolla sedan—are assembled in Kentucky and Mississippi, respectively. But the gasoline-only RAV4 is imported from Canada, and the plug-in hybrid version comes from Japan.This exposure has made Toyota a target of Trump’s policies, and the automaker’s fortunes are now closely tied to the outcome of U.S.–Japan trade talks.One major issue Toyota faces is limited production flexibility within the U.S. Its Kentucky Georgetown plant is already running at nearly full capacity as of late April, leaving little room to shift additional vehicle output from overseas.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Sell

Toyota Motor ADR Rep 10

AI-Driven Rally? Analysts See Up to 73% Upside in Key AI Stocks (May 11, 2025)

Neutral

AAPL

Apple

AI-Driven Rally? Analysts See Up to 73% Upside in Key AI Stocks (May 11, 2025)

The Big Picture: AI as the Fourth Industrial RevolutionAI has been dubbed the Fourth Industrial Revolution, expected to impact society as deeply as steam engines, electricity, and the internet once did.Daniel Ives, Senior Equity Analyst at Wedbush Securities, sees AI as the biggest tech shift in four decades. He estimates the global AI market will reach $407 billion by 2027 and $1.81 trillion by 2030, with a 36% CAGR.While AI isn't entirely new, the mainstream adoption of tools like ChatGPT sparked a wave of public and corporate interest. The development cycle of AI now includes infrastructure buildout (data centers, power systems), training on hyperscaler cloud platforms, cybersecurity, and finally, delivery to end users via software and apps.Wedbush's AI Winners: Sector Breakdown1. Semiconductors & HardwareThese companies build the computing infrastructure that supports AI data centers.Nvidia leads in supplying GPUs for both gaming and data centers, and is a key player in autonomous vehicles.AMD provides CPUs for gaming and computing and is another critical supplier.2. HyperscalersThese cloud giants provide the backbone for AI development and deployment.Microsoft: Its Office suite is integrating AI tools, while Azure is a favorite among enterprise clients.Alphabet (Google): Despite facing competition in AI search and advertising, its growing cloud segment remains under scrutiny from investors.3. Consumer InternetThese firms monetize AI through tools, automation, search optimization, and AI integration in hardware.Apple is building “Apple Intelligence” with a focus on privacy and ecosystem loyalty, though tariff concerns have weighed on its stock.Meta Platforms is improving ad targeting and developing large language models to rival ChatGPT and Gemini.4. CybersecurityCyberattacks are expected to cost companies $23 trillion by 2027.Palo Alto Networks is a prime beneficiary, with a unified platform that Wedbush sees as a key to growing market share.5. SoftwareSoftware bridges AI technology and business adoption.Palantir combines AI and big data analytics for enterprise and government clients. After a strong April, it's trading above consensus target prices.Salesforce is favored for its Agentforce platform enabling autonomous enterprise tools.IBM continues heavy AI investment to drive productivity improvements.6. Autonomous & RoboticsAI is transforming robotics and self-driving vehicles from fiction to reality.Tesla remains a high-profile name in autonomy through its Optimus robot and self-driving systems. However, its near-term EV sales outlook is weak.ConclusionAI is powering a multi-industry transformation, and leading companies are strategically positioned across the value chain—from chips and cloud to software and security. While the long-term growth potential remains massive, investors should be mindful that near-term price surges in certain names reflect high expectations. Selective, fundamentals-based exposure is essential in navigating the next phase of the AI revolution.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Neutral

AAPL

Apple

S&P 500 Stocks with Over 10% Target Price Downgrade in the 1st Week of May

Strong Sell

TSLA

Tesla

S&P 500 Stocks with Over 10% Target Price Downgrade in the 1st Week of May

Strong Sell

TSLA

Tesla

Tesla Board Begins Search for Elon Musk's Successor (Apr 30, 2025)

Sell

TSLA

Tesla

Tesla Board Begins Search for Elon Musk's Successor (Apr 30, 2025)

Tesla Board Quietly Exploring Leadership SuccessionRoughly a month ago, with Tesla’s stock sliding and investor concerns growing over Musk’s attention to Washington politics, the company’s board began actively exploring CEO succession.Board members have contacted multiple executive search firms as Tesla continues to face sliding sales and profits, while Musk spends much of his time in political and advisory roles in Washington.In a recent meeting, the board pressed Musk to commit more time to Tesla and to do so publicly. Musk didn’t resist the request. After announcing a 71% decline in Q1 profit last week, Musk told investors he would “spend significantly more time at Tesla starting next month.”While the board has reportedly focused on top-tier search firms, it’s unclear how advanced the succession planning process is — or whether Musk himself is fully aware of it. In a Wednesday cabinet meeting, Trump thanked Musk for his public service and commented that he "seems ready to return to his cars."Tesla’s 8-member board is also considering adding new independent directors and has been engaging with major shareholders to reassure them of the company’s direction.Brand Pressure Mounts Amid Political FalloutMusk’s deeper involvement in politics comes at a difficult time for Tesla. For the first time in over a decade, EV sales declined in 2024. Aggressive price cuts have squeezed margins. Meanwhile, Musk’s growing association with Trump has damaged the Tesla brand among environmentally conscious consumers, and Trump’s new tariff measures are complicating Tesla’s supply chain and China strategy.Though Tesla shares initially rallied after Trump’s election win, the stock has since fallen from its $1.5 trillion peak to a $900 billion valuation.Musk reportedly told a close contact early last year that he wanted to step away from the CEO role but struggled to identify a successor who could carry his long-term vision forward.Internal Strains & Employee ReactionsDespite owning 13% of Tesla, Musk has repeatedly complained about not drawing a salary for over seven years. The board recently formed a special committee to evaluate executive compensation.Tesla is only one of five companies Musk actively leads. Over 20 senior executives across these businesses report directly to him.Some Tesla employees have actually welcomed Musk’s absence from day-to-day operations. But his political pivot has raised new concerns — particularly among staff committed to Tesla’s mission on climate action and sustainable energy.His alignment with Trump has begun to hurt Tesla in progressive markets like California and Germany, while ceding share to Chinese rivals like BYD. One Tesla executive who privately suggested Musk’s departure might benefit the company was reportedly dismissed.Core Business Weakens as AI Ambitions GrowTesla is at a transitional moment. While its ambitions in AI and robotics grow, its core EV business is struggling. The Cybertruck has missed its first-year sales targets, and the company is focusing on improving its existing product line rather than launching a low-cost model in 2025.In last week’s earnings report, Tesla posted a 9% drop in total revenue and a 20% plunge in automotive revenue. Musk responded to concerns by downplaying the severity of Tesla’s situation, saying, “We are not at the edge of death — not even close.”[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Sell

TSLA

Tesla

AMD Faces $800M Hit as U.S. Tightens Export Controls on AI Chips (Apr 17, 2025)

Strong Sell

AMD

Advanced Micro Devices

AMD Faces $800M Hit as U.S. Tightens Export Controls on AI Chips (Apr 17, 2025)

AMD has warned of a potential $800 million loss in its Q1 2025 results due to new export restrictions imposed by the U.S. government. The move targets its MI308 AI chip, now subject to a newly enforced export license requirement as part of Washington’s tightening policy on advanced semiconductor shipments to China.The projected loss includes provisions for inventory, supplier agreements, and related reserves—and could widen further if restrictions remain in place or expand.China accounted for approximately 24% of AMD’s 2024 revenue, or $6.2 billion, making it one of the company’s most critical markets. However, U.S. authorities have never granted licenses for GPU exports to China, and this latest directive appears to carry no defined expiration period. Although AMD plans to apply for a license, approval remains uncertain.The market responded swiftly. AMD shares fell more than 5% following the announcement, and other chipmakers with significant China exposure saw similar pressure. With escalating trade tensions and policy unpredictability, AMD faces risks that extend well beyond one quarter.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Strong Sell

AMD

Advanced Micro Devices

Nvidia Faces $5.5B Hit as U.S. Blocks AI Chip Exports to China (Apr 16, 2025)

Sell

NVDA

NVIDIA

Nvidia Faces $5.5B Hit as U.S. Blocks AI Chip Exports to China (Apr 16, 2025)

The U.S. government has officially barred Nvidia from exporting its H20 AI chips to China, a move that could wipe out $5.5 billion in expected revenue for the company. The impact—equivalent to approximately KRW 7.5 trillion—will be reflected in Nvidia’s Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings, as confirmed in a recent SEC filing.The H20 was specifically engineered with performance adjustments to avoid existing export restrictions. However, the U.S. Department of Commerce issued new directives on April 9, requiring an indefinite export license for any China-bound shipments of the H20, effectively blocking sales to Chinese supercomputing customers.The new restriction signals a renewed escalation in the U.S.-China semiconductor trade war. Nvidia’s China exposure has already declined from 20% to about 10% of revenue, and Morningstar now warns that this could drop to zero. The stock dropped 6.5% intraday following the announcement.The restrictions are not limited to Nvidia. The U.S. is also targeting AMD’s MI308 chips, extending the crackdown across leading U.S. suppliers of AI hardware to China.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Sell

NVDA

NVIDIA

Is Your Stock at Risk? Top 10 U.S. Companies Most Exposed to the China Slowdown (Apr 13, 2025)

Strong Sell

NVDA

NVIDIA

Is Your Stock at Risk? Top 10 U.S. Companies Most Exposed to the China Slowdown (Apr 13, 2025)

As U.S.–China trade tensions escalate, a select group of U.S.-listed companies with significant revenue exposure to China may be facing heightened earnings risk.According to Goldman Sachs and CarbonFinance, these companies span various industries, yet share a common vulnerability: China accounts for a substantial portion of their total sales.Las Vegas Sands (LVS, 63%) and Wynn Resorts (WYNN, 47%) generate a majority of revenue from Macau-based casino operations, effectively tying performance to the Chinese consumer economy.Qualcomm (QCOM, 62%) and Intel (INTC, 40%) rely heavily on Chinese handset and electronics clients for chip sales.Even Nvidia (NVDA, 39%), despite its AI and datacenter-driven growth, remains exposed to export risks should high-performance chip restrictions broaden.Other notable names include:KLA Corp (KLAC, 51%) – semiconductor inspection toolsCorning (GLW, 39%) – display glassBroadcom (AVGO, 32%) – networking chipsAptiv (APTV, 28%) – auto electronics & wiringTeradyne (TER, 26%) – semiconductor test equipmentIf tariffs increase or export controls are expanded, these companies could see near-term volatility in earnings, paired with declining investor sentiment tied to geopolitical uncertainty.Source: https://t.me/insidertracking/8975[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Strong Sell

NVDA

NVIDIA

Tesla Soars, but UBS Says “No Fundamental Justification” (Apr 10, 2025)

Sell

TSLA

Tesla

Tesla Soars, but UBS Says “No Fundamental Justification” (Apr 10, 2025)

Tesla (TSLA) shares surged ahead of its upcoming Q1 earnings report on April 22, but UBS remains skeptical.UBS analyst Joseph Spak stated that Tesla’s 22% rally on April 9—following the reciprocal tariff suspension announcement—is not supported by fundamentals.UBS believes market expectations remain overly optimistic, and sees a high likelihood that Tesla will lower its forward guidance during the Q1 earnings call.Of particular concern is the energy storage segment, which has seen recent growth but now faces supply chain risks due to the new 125% tariff on Chinese imports—a key source of materials.Reflecting these risks, UBS maintained its “Sell” rating on Tesla and cut its price target from $225 to $190, citing continued uncertainty in earnings visibility and supply stability.UBS recommends caution in interpreting the recent rally as sustainable.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Sell

TSLA

Tesla

GM Faces $5 Billion in Annual Tariff Costs — UBS Cuts Price Target by 20% (Apr 10, 2025)

Strong Sell

General Motors

GM Faces $5 Billion in Annual Tariff Costs — UBS Cuts Price Target by 20% (Apr 10, 2025)

UBS has downgraded its rating on General Motors (GM) from Buy to Neutral, citing mounting cost pressure under the Trump administration’s new high-tariff policy. The bank also cut its price target from $64 to $51, a reduction of roughly 20%.UBS analysts noted that many GM vehicles are assembled in Canada and Mexico, with an estimated $35,000 worth of components per vehicle. Assuming 50% of those parts are foreign-sourced and applying a 25% tariff rate on imported parts, GM's annual tariff burden could reach approximately $5 billion.UBS also warned that domestic auto demand may soften, further weighing on GM’s earnings outlook. With GM’s Q1 2025 earnings report due on April 29, this downgrade could heighten market sensitivity ahead of the results.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Strong Sell

General Motors

셀포터즈 박소연

In the Age of AI, Why Has AMD Failed to Rebound? (Apr 9, 2025)

Neutral

AMD

Advanced Micro Devices

셀포터즈 박소연

In the Age of AI, Why Has AMD Failed to Rebound? (Apr 9, 2025)

The semiconductor industry in 2025 is at a turning point—AI presents a massive opportunity, but also sharpens the risks tied to technological disparity, demand imbalances, and geopolitical volatility. While Nvidia maintains its dominance and Intel accelerates strategic changes, AMD once again finds itself caught between market skepticism and latent expectations.Its technological prowess is unquestioned, but in today’s market, potential is no longer enough. AMD must deliver measurable results.The Fall Behind the NumbersAMD (Advanced Micro Devices) has long stood as a key player between Intel and Nvidia, bolstered by its innovation in high-performance CPUs and GPUs under the leadership of CEO Lisa Su. The company enjoyed significant gains in both product leadership and investor sentiment.But since late 2024, its stock has told a different story. In 2025 alone, AMD shares are down over 20%, diverging sharply from Nvidia’s strong upward trajectory. The decline reflects several compounding factors: relative underperformance in AI semiconductors, a slowdown in server demand, and weaker consumer product sales.The immediate catalyst was AMD’s Q4 2024 earnings, which, despite year-over-year revenue growth, fell short of market expectations—particularly in the data center segment, where slower-than-anticipated growth led to broad disappointment.Entering AI—But Not Yet DeliveringAMD has staked its future AI ambitions on the MI300 series, targeting cloud service providers and AI workloads with high-performance GPUs. The company has signaled an expansion in partnerships and product deployments.However, these developments have yet to translate into meaningful revenue. AMD has stated that MI300-related sales will begin contributing in earnest from mid-2025, but for now, investors remain on hold.Meanwhile, Intel is reasserting itself with next-gen CPU launches and a revitalized foundry business, and Nvidia’s dominance in AI chips remains unshaken. In such a competitive environment, AMD’s performance suggests that technical merit alone is no longer enough to drive a stock recovery.Conclusion: It Comes Down to ExecutionAMD is at another crossroads. Its AI roadmap via the MI300, potential recovery in the server and PC markets, and growing partnerships all present legitimate upside. But markets now demand execution over narrative.In the past, AMD has navigated similar inflection points by proving both its innovation and operational discipline. This time, however, the company must move faster—and with greater clarity.The mission for 2025 is simple: turn technology into results. If AMD succeeds, the current downturn may well prove to be a long-term buying opportunity. That’s why its next steps matter more than ever.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Neutral

AMD

Advanced Micro Devices

셀포터즈 강성주

SK Innovation Tops Short-Selling List — Why Are Foreign Investors Targeting This Stock First? (Apr 9, 2025)

Sell

096770

SK Innovation

셀포터즈 강성주

SK Innovation Tops Short-Selling List — Why Are Foreign Investors Targeting This Stock First? (Apr 9, 2025)

On March 31, 2025, South Korea fully resumed short-selling after a 17-month suspension. Expectations for foreign capital inflows were unmet—instead, the market was met with a wave of aggressive selling.At the center of that wave is SK Innovation (096770).According to data from the Korea Exchange as of April 9, foreign investors have offloaded a net KRW 9.67 trillion (approx. USD 6.7 billion) in Korean equities between March 31 and April 8. During that same period, total short-selling turnover amounted to KRW 8.26 trillion (approx. USD 5.7 billion)—with foreigners accounting for a staggering 87.8% (KRW 7.26 trillion (approx. USD 5.0 billion)).Amid this selloff, SK Innovation stood out as the most heavily targeted stock.As of April 9, short-selling made up 48.19% of total trading volume in SK Innovation—ranking No. 1 on the KOSPI. That means nearly one out of every two shares traded was a short sale. On March 31, the first day short-selling resumed, SK Innovation ranked among the top 50 shorted stocks. By April 3, its short-sell ratio had soared to 52.31%, again taking the top spot.In short, SK Innovation has become the first and most concentrated large-cap short target in this new market environment.The stock’s price action reflects this pressure.From KRW 122,000 (approx. USD 90) at the end of March, SK Innovation’s stock fell to KRW 92,700 (approx. USD 68) by April 9, dropping 24% in just seven trading days. Compared to its recent peak of KRW 140,200 (approx. USD 104) on March 13, the decline is even steeper at 34%. While some suggest the sharp pullback may offer a technical rebound, the market is focused on a more fundamental question:Why did foreign investors choose SK Innovation first?The answer lies in one phrase: structural uncertainty.SK Innovation’s business is built on two pillars: oil refining (SK Energy) and EV batteries (SK On). Right now, both pillars are under strain.The refining division is facing dual headwinds—declining oil prices and falling refining margins. As fears of a global recession deepen amid escalating trade tensions, international oil prices dropped to their lowest level in four years on April 8, eroding the segment’s profitability outlook.But the more serious concern is the battery division.SK Innovation operates its EV battery business through SK On, and the first quarter of 2025 shows no signs of improvement. In an April 3 report, Samsung Securities projected SK Innovation’s Q1 operating profit at KRW 29.1 billion (approx. USD 20 million), a massive 93% below the market consensus of KRW 417.4 billion (approx. USD 305 million).This underscores a broader issue: the combined structure of refining and battery operations may be fundamentally incapable of generating profit under current conditions.Add to this a layer of policy risk. Recent tariff shocks from the U.S. have hit Korean markets hard, particularly in high-growth sectors like batteries, electrical equipment, and shipbuilding. SK Innovation sits at the intersection of these sectors, making it a prime short-selling target.As of April 8, short-selling still accounted for 38.04% of total trading volume in SK Innovation. On the same day, major peers like LG Energy Solution, SK Ecoplant Materials, and POSCO Future M also ranked high on short-interest lists.In short, SK Innovation is currently surrounded by a confluence of risks—earnings weakness, industry headwinds, policy uncertainty, and negative sentiment.Still, it may be premature to adopt a purely bearish view. Short-selling is often followed by overreaction and eventual reversal. If the company reaches break-even in key areas sooner than expected, a re-rating could follow.Ultimately, what SK Innovation needs now is not sentiment—but numbers and results to support a turnaround.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Sell

096770

SK Innovation

S&P 500 Stocks with Over 10% Target Price Downgrade in the 5th Week of March 📉 (DAY, BF.B, HPE, TER, TFX, ULTA)

Strong Sell

HPE

Hewlett Packard Enterprise

S&P 500 Stocks with Over 10% Target Price Downgrade in the 5th Week of March 📉 (DAY, BF.B, HPE, TER, TFX, ULTA)

Over the past four weeks (from Feb 28 to Mar 28, 2025), analyst reports indicate that a number of S&P 500 companies have had their target prices downgraded by more than 10%.This reflects a combination of changes in company fundamentals, macroeconomic variables, and shifts in industry competition. From a sell-side perspective, such target price downgrades can signal short-term downside pressure on stock prices, meaning investors should consider appropriate risk management or sell strategies.Below is a summary of stocks whose target prices have been revised down by more than 10% compared to four weeks ago. For each company, the target prices as of Feb 28 and Mar 28, 2025 are provided along with the percentage decline.1. Brown Forman Class B (BF.B-US)Target Price (Mar 28, 2025): $40Target Price (Feb 28, 2025): $45Change: -11.1%Key Issue: Weak consumer demand and rising raw material costs are squeezing margins, while intensified global competition in the alcohol market is limiting growth prospects.2. Dayforce (DAY-US)Target Price (Mar 28, 2025): $80Target Price (Feb 28, 2025): $64Change: -20.0%Key Issue: Slower-than-expected client onboarding and increasing competition in the human capital management (HCM) software space are raising concerns about the company's near-term growth momentum and margin sustainability.3. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE-US)Target Price (Mar 28, 2025): $20Target Price (Feb 28, 2025): $24Change: -16.7%Key Issue: Weakened demand for enterprise IT infrastructure and intensified competition in the cloud market are seen as weighing on the company’s growth outlook.4. Teradyne (TER-US)Target Price (Mar 28, 2025): $116Target Price (Feb 28, 2025): $136Change: -14.7%Key Issue: Slowing demand and heightened competition in the semiconductor and automated test equipment markets are weighing on the company’s growth outlook.5. Teleflex (TFX-US)Target Price (Mar 28, 2025): $165Target Price (Feb 28, 2025): $185Change: -10.8%Key Issue: Weak demand in the medical device market and global economic uncertainty are driving negative revisions to earnings expectations.6. Ulta Beauty (ULTA-US)Target Price (Mar 28, 2025): $411Target Price (Feb 28, 2025): $461Change: -10.6%Key Issue: Macroeconomic concerns about consumer spending and increasing competition are constraining growth prospects. Uncertainty about evolving beauty trends is also impacting revenue expectations.While the reasons and extent of target price downgrades vary by company, overall, these revisions reflect common macroeconomic risks, such as economic recession fears, supply chain uncertainties, rising costs, intensifying competition.Additionally, some companies are affected by structural industry changes, such as fluctuations in EV battery demand and semiconductor industry trends.From a sell-side perspective, stocks experiencing significant target price cuts could face short-term downside pressure. Investors should consider risk management strategies, including portfolio rebalancing, short positions, market-driven adjustments – Stay alert to upcoming earnings reports, interest rate changes, and key economic indicators, as these can significantly impact volatility.By aligning investment decisions with broader market trends, investors can navigate these shifts with greater flexibility and strategic foresight.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Strong Sell

HPE

Hewlett Packard Enterprise

📉 S&P 500 Stocks with Over 10% Target Price Downgrade in the 4th Week of March (WSD, WST, CAT)

Strong Sell

CAT

Caterpillar

📉 S&P 500 Stocks with Over 10% Target Price Downgrade in the 4th Week of March (WSD, WST, CAT)

Over the past 8 weeks (from Jan 24 to Mar 21, 2025), analyst reports covering major S&P 500 companies revealed several stocks whose target prices were revised downward by more than 10%.This is interpreted as a reflection of changes in company fundamentals, macroeconomic factors, and shifts in industry competition. From a sell-side perspective, such target price cuts may indicate short-term downside pressure, suggesting that investors should consider proper risk management and exit strategies.Below are details of companies with target prices lowered by more than 10% compared to 8 weeks ago. Each company's target price as of Jan 24 and Mar 21, 2025, is provided, along with the percentage decrease.1. Western Digital (WDC-US)Target Price (Mar 21, 2025): $76Target Price (Jan 24, 2025): $88Change: -13.6%Key Issue: Short-term demand weakness and falling prices in the memory semiconductor market are pressuring the company’s revenue and profitability.2. West Pharmaceutical Services (WST-US)Target Price (Mar 21, 2025): $281Target Price (Jan 24, 2025): $377Change: -25.5%Key Issue: Rising raw material costs in the pharmaceutical and medical device sectors, combined with weakening competitiveness of its product portfolio, are weighing on the company’s earnings outlook.3. Caterpillar (CAT-US)Target Price (Mar 21, 2025): $195Target Price (Jan 24, 2025): $390Change: -50.0%Key Issue: Mounting concerns over a global economic slowdown are significantly affecting demand in the construction and mining equipment sectors. Delays in infrastructure investment and supply chain uncertainties are major contributors to the substantial target price cut.While the reasons and extent of the target price downgrades vary by company, they broadly reflect macro-level risks such as recession concerns, supply chain issues, cost inflation, and intensifying industry competition. In some cases, structural changes in the respective industries (e.g., EV battery demand volatility, semiconductor market conditions) played a significant role.From a sell-side strategy perspective, these stocks are likely to face near-term downward momentum. Investors should consider adjusting their portfolio exposures or evaluating short-position strategies. Volatility could also increase depending on upcoming earnings announcements, interest rate movements, and macroeconomic indicators, so a flexible approach aligned with market trends is essential.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Strong Sell

CAT

Caterpillar

📉 S&P 500 Stocks with Over 10% Target Price Downgrade in the 4th Week of March (FIS, FMC, FSLR, HPE, KHC, MCHP)

Strong Sell

FIS

Fidelity National Information Services

📉 S&P 500 Stocks with Over 10% Target Price Downgrade in the 4th Week of March (FIS, FMC, FSLR, HPE, KHC, MCHP)

Over the past 8 weeks (from Jan 24 to Mar 21, 2025), analyst reports covering major S&P 500 companies revealed several stocks whose target prices were revised downward by more than 10%.This is interpreted as a reflection of changes in company fundamentals, macroeconomic factors, and shifts in industry competition. From a sell-side perspective, such target price cuts may indicate short-term downside pressure, suggesting that investors should consider proper risk management and exit strategies.Below are details of companies with target prices lowered by more than 10% compared to 8 weeks ago. Each company's target price as of Jan 24 and Mar 21, 2025, is provided, along with the percentage decrease.1. Fidelity National Information Services (FIS-US)Target Price (Mar 21, 2025): $83Target Price (Jan 24, 2025): $93Change: -10.8%Key Issue: Intensifying competition in the financial services and payment systems market is pressuring the company’s profitability.2. FMC (FMC-US)Target Price (Mar 21, 2025): $49Target Price (Jan 24, 2025): $67Change: -26.9%Key Issue: Weakened demand in the agricultural chemicals market and rising raw material costs are weighing heavily on earnings.3. First Solar (FSLR-US)Target Price (Mar 21, 2025): $242Target Price (Jan 24, 2025): $270Change: -10.4%Key Issue: Volatility in raw material prices and potential subsidy reductions are negatively affecting profitability outlooks in the solar sector.4. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE-US)Target Price (Mar 21, 2025): $20Target Price (Jan 24, 2025): $24Change: -16.7%Key Issue: Sluggish demand in enterprise IT infrastructure and heightened competition in the cloud market are impacting the company’s growth potential.5. Kraft Heinz (KHC-US)Target Price (Mar 21, 2025): $32Target Price (Jan 24, 2025): $36Change: -11.1%Key Issue: Rising raw material costs and evolving consumer behavior are pressuring margins, making brand competitiveness a top strategic priority.6. Microchip Technology (MCHP-US)Target Price (Mar 21, 2025): $66Target Price (Jan 24, 2025): $79Change: -16.5%Key Issue: Short-term uncertainty in the semiconductor sector and ongoing inventory corrections are negatively affecting earnings momentum.While the reasons and extent of the target price downgrades vary by company, they broadly reflect macro-level risks such as recession concerns, supply chain issues, cost inflation, and intensifying industry competition. In some cases, structural changes in the respective industries (e.g., EV battery demand volatility, semiconductor market conditions) played a significant role.From a sell-side strategy perspective, these stocks are likely to face near-term downward momentum. Investors should consider adjusting their portfolio exposures or evaluating short-position strategies. Volatility could also increase depending on upcoming earnings announcements, interest rate movements, and macroeconomic indicators, so a flexible approach aligned with market trends is essential.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Strong Sell

FIS

Fidelity National Information Services

📉 S&P 500 Stocks with Over 10% Target Price Downgrade in the 4th Week of March (SWKS, TER, TFX, ULTA, UPS)

Strong Sell

UPS

United Parcel Service Class B

📉 S&P 500 Stocks with Over 10% Target Price Downgrade in the 4th Week of March (SWKS, TER, TFX, ULTA, UPS)

Over the past 8 weeks (from Jan 24 to Mar 21, 2025), analyst reports covering major S&P 500 companies revealed several stocks whose target prices were revised downward by more than 10%.This is interpreted as a reflection of changes in company fundamentals, macroeconomic factors, and shifts in industry competition. From a sell-side perspective, such target price cuts may indicate short-term downside pressure, suggesting that investors should consider proper risk management and exit strategies.Below are details of companies with target prices lowered by more than 10% compared to 8 weeks ago. Each company's target price as of Jan 24 and Mar 21, 2025, is provided, along with the percentage decrease.1. Skyworks Solutions (SWKS-US)Target Price (Mar 21, 2025): $71Target Price (Jan 24, 2025): $97Change: -26.8%Key Issue: A slowdown in 5G component demand and intensifying competition in the smartphone market are negatively impacting the company’s performance.2. Teradyne (TER-US)Target Price (Mar 21, 2025): $116Target Price (Jan 24, 2025): $140Change: -17.1%Key Issue: Slowing demand and heightened competition in the semiconductor and automated test equipment markets are weighing on the company’s growth outlook.3. Teleflex (TFX-US)Target Price (Mar 21, 2025): $165Target Price (Jan 24, 2025): $240Change: -31.3%Key Issue: Weak demand in the medical device market and global economic uncertainty are driving negative revisions to earnings expectations.4. Ulta Beauty (ULTA-US)Target Price (Mar 21, 2025): $412Target Price (Jan 24, 2025): $461Change: -10.6%Key Issue: Macroeconomic concerns about consumer spending and increasing competition are constraining growth prospects. Uncertainty about evolving beauty trends is also impacting revenue expectations.5. United Parcel Service Class B (UPS-US)Target Price (Mar 21, 2025): $132Target Price (Jan 24, 2025): $148Change: -10.8%Key Issue: Slowing growth in the global logistics market and rising costs are putting pressure on the company’s margins.While the reasons and extent of the target price downgrades vary by company, they broadly reflect macro-level risks such as recession concerns, supply chain issues, cost inflation, and intensifying industry competition. In some cases, structural changes in the respective industries (e.g., EV battery demand volatility, semiconductor market conditions) played a significant role.From a sell-side strategy perspective, these stocks are likely to face near-term downward momentum. Investors should consider adjusting their portfolio exposures or evaluating short-position strategies. Volatility could also increase depending on upcoming earnings announcements, interest rate movements, and macroeconomic indicators, so a flexible approach aligned with market trends is essential.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Strong Sell

UPS

United Parcel Service Class B

📉 S&P 500 Stocks with Over 10% Target Price Downgrade in the 4th Week of March (AES, ALB, AMD, BF.B, BIIB)

Strong Sell

AMD

Advanced Micro Devices

📉 S&P 500 Stocks with Over 10% Target Price Downgrade in the 4th Week of March (AES, ALB, AMD, BF.B, BIIB)

Over the past 8 weeks (from Jan 24 to Mar 21, 2025), analyst reports covering major S&P 500 companies revealed several stocks whose target prices were revised downward by more than 10%.This is interpreted as a reflection of changes in company fundamentals, macroeconomic factors, and shifts in industry competition. From a sell-side perspective, such target price cuts may indicate short-term downside pressure, suggesting that investors should consider proper risk management and exit strategies.Below are details of companies with target prices lowered by more than 10% compared to 8 weeks ago. Each company's target price as of Jan 24 and Mar 21, 2025, is provided, along with the percentage decrease.1. AES (AES-US)Target Price (Mar 21, 2025): $15Target Price (Jan 24, 2025): $17Change: -11.8%Key Issue: Slowing growth in the power and utility sectors and rising energy costs are putting pressure on profitability.2. Albemarle (ALB-US)Target Price (Mar 21, 2025): $98Target Price (Jan 24, 2025): $112Change: -12.5%Key Issue: Volatility in the lithium market—a key material for EV batteries—and concerns over economic slowdown have led to lowered sales growth expectations.3. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD-US)Target Price (Mar 21, 2025): $145Target Price (Jan 24, 2025): $171Change: -15.2%Key Issue: Ongoing concerns around weakening demand in the PC and data center markets, along with intensified competition and macroeconomic uncertainty, are undermining short-term earnings momentum.4. Brown Forman Class B (BF.B-US)Target Price (Mar 21, 2025): $40Target Price (Jan 24, 2025): $46Change: -13.0%Key Issue: Weak consumer demand and rising raw material costs are squeezing margins, while intensified global competition in the alcohol market is limiting growth prospects.5. Biogen (BIIB-US)Target Price (Mar 21, 2025): $198Target Price (Jan 24, 2025): $228Change: -13.2%Key Issue: Uncertainty around the clinical results of new drugs and increased competition have led to lower sales estimates. Regulatory risks are also being cited as a potential concern.While the reasons and extent of the target price downgrades vary by company, they broadly reflect macro-level risks such as recession concerns, supply chain issues, cost inflation, and intensifying industry competition. In some cases, structural changes in the respective industries (e.g., EV battery demand volatility, semiconductor market conditions) played a significant role.From a sell-side strategy perspective, these stocks are likely to face near-term downward momentum. Investors should consider adjusting their portfolio exposures or evaluating short-position strategies. Volatility could also increase depending on upcoming earnings announcements, interest rate movements, and macroeconomic indicators, so a flexible approach aligned with market trends is essential.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Strong Sell

AMD

Advanced Micro Devices

📉 S&P 500 Stocks with Over 10% Target Price Downgrade in the 4th Week of March (BF.B, SRE, TER, TFX, ULTA)

Strong Sell

SRE

Sempra

📉 S&P 500 Stocks with Over 10% Target Price Downgrade in the 4th Week of March (BF.B, SRE, TER, TFX, ULTA)

Over the past four weeks (from Feb 21 to Mar 21, 2025), analyst reports indicate that several major S&P 500 companies have had their target prices downgraded by more than 10%.This reflects a combination of changes in company fundamentals, macroeconomic conditions, and shifts in industry competitiveness. From a sell-side perspective, these downward revisions may imply short-term price pressure, making it important for investors to consider appropriate risk management and sell strategies.Below is a summary of companies whose target prices were revised down by more than 10% over the past four weeks. For each company, we include the target price as of Feb 21 and Mar 21, 2025, along with the percentage decrease.1. Brown Forman Class B (BF.B-US)Target Price (Mar 21, 2025): $40Target Price (Feb 21, 2025): $46Change: -13.0%Key Issue: Consumer spending slowdown and rising raw material costs are squeezing margins. Heightened competition in the global alcoholic beverage market is also limiting growth prospects.2. Sempra (SRE-US)Target Price (Mar 21, 2025): $83Target Price (Feb 21, 2025): $94Change: -11.7%Key Issue: Volatility in the energy and utility markets, along with regulatory shifts, are weighing on the company’s earnings outlook.3. Teradyne (TER-US)Target Price (Mar 21, 2025): $116Target Price (Feb 21, 2025): $136Change: -14.7%Key Issue: Softening demand and rising competition in the semiconductor and automation test equipment markets are dampening growth potential.4. Teleflex (TFX-US)Target Price (Mar 21, 2025): $165Target Price (Feb 21, 2025): $240Change: -31.3%Key Issue: Weaker demand in the medical device market and global economic uncertainty are dragging down performance expectations.5. Ulta Beauty (ULTA-US)Target Price (Mar 21, 2025): $412Target Price (Feb 21, 2025): $461Change: -10.6%Key Issue: Concerns over consumer demand and increased competition are constraining growth, while shifting beauty trends are creating uncertainty in sales projections.While the reasons and degrees of target price revisions vary by company, most reflect common macroeconomic risks such as recession concerns, supply chain issues, rising costs, and intensified competition. In some cases, industry-specific structural changes (e.g., EV battery demand, semiconductor cycles) have also played a significant role.From a sell-side strategy perspective, these downgraded stocks are likely to experience near-term downward momentum. Investors may consider reducing portfolio exposure or adopting short strategies for risk control. Notably, upcoming earnings reports, interest rate changes, and macroeconomic data could significantly heighten volatility, so a flexible and responsive approach is essential.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Strong Sell

SRE

Sempra

📉 S&P 500 Stocks with Over 10% Target Price Downgrade in the 4th Week of March (HPE, MRNA, FSLR, CPB, NTAP, CAT)

Strong Sell

CAT

Caterpillar

📉 S&P 500 Stocks with Over 10% Target Price Downgrade in the 4th Week of March (HPE, MRNA, FSLR, CPB, NTAP, CAT)

Over the past four weeks (from Feb 21 to Mar 21, 2025), analyst reports indicate that a number of S&P 500 companies have had their target prices downgraded by more than 10%.This reflects a combination of changes in company fundamentals, macroeconomic variables, and shifts in industry competition. From a sell-side perspective, such target price downgrades can signal short-term downside pressure on stock prices, meaning investors should consider appropriate risk management or sell strategies.Below is a summary of stocks whose target prices have been revised down by more than 10% compared to four weeks ago. For each company, the target prices as of Feb 21 and Mar 21, 2025 are provided along with the percentage decline.1. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE-US)Target Price (Mar 21, 2025): $20Target Price (Feb 21, 2025): $24Change: -16.7%Key Issue: Weakened demand for enterprise IT infrastructure and intensified competition in the cloud market are seen as weighing on the company’s growth outlook.2. Moderna (MRNA-US)Target Price (Mar 21, 2025): $52Target Price (Feb 21, 2025): $59Change: -11.9%Key Issue: Declining demand for COVID-19 vaccines and uncertainty surrounding new drug pipeline developments are affecting investor sentiment.3. First Solar (FSLR-US)Target Price (Mar 21, 2025): $242Target Price (Feb 21, 2025): $269Change: -10.0%Key Issue: Fluctuations in raw material prices within the solar industry and potential subsidy cuts are seen weakening the company's profitability outlook.4. The Campbell’s Company (CPB-US)Target Price (Mar 21, 2025): $48Target Price (Feb 21, 2025): $43Change: -10.4%Key Issue: Slowing consumer demand and rising food input costs are pressuring profitability, while intensifying competition is adding to margin compression.5. NetApp (NTAP-US)Target Price (Mar 21, 2025): $121Target Price (Feb 21, 2025): $137Change: -11.7%Key Issue: Growing competition in the data storage and cloud solutions market is seen as a key factor limiting growth prospects.6. Caterpillar (CAT-US)Target Price (Mar 21, 2025): $195Target Price (Feb 21, 2025): $386Change: -49.5%Key Issue: Concerns over a global economic slowdown are strongly reflected here. Delays in infrastructure investment and ongoing supply chain uncertainty are major reasons behind the substantial downgrade.While the reasons and extent of target price downgrades vary by company, overall, these revisions reflect common macroeconomic risks, such as economic recession fears, supply chain uncertainties, rising costs, intensifying competition.Additionally, some companies are affected by structural industry changes, such as fluctuations in EV battery demand and semiconductor industry trends.From a sell-side perspective, stocks experiencing significant target price cuts could face short-term downside pressure. Investors should consider risk management strategies, including portfolio rebalancing, short positions, market-driven adjustments – Stay alert to upcoming earnings reports, interest rate changes, and key economic indicators, as these can significantly impact volatility.By aligning investment decisions with broader market trends, investors can navigate these shifts with greater flexibility and strategic foresight.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Strong Sell

CAT

Caterpillar

"Spring Is Coming"... Morgan Stanley Raises Target Prices for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix (Mar 19, 2025)

Neutral

005930

Samsung Electronics

"Spring Is Coming"... Morgan Stanley Raises Target Prices for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix (Mar 19, 2025)

Morgan Stanley, which had maintained a conservative outlook on the semiconductor market, has now raised its target prices for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. With DRAM and NAND flash prices rebounding and production cuts by major players taking effect, expectations for gradual market recovery are growing.In a report, 'DRAM-Looking beyond the valley' released on March 18, Morgan Stanley increased its target price for Samsung Electronics from 65,000 KRW to 70,000 KRW and for SK Hynix from 150,000 KRW to 230,000 KRW. While Samsung retained its "Overweight" rating, SK Hynix’s rating was upgraded from "Underweight" to "Neutral".The semiconductor market is seeing the full impact of NAND flash production cuts, with prices expected to rise by up to 10% in Q2. Additionally, China’s AI investment and economic stimulus policies are expected to positively impact DRAM supply and demand. However, weak consumer sentiment and intensifying price competition from Chinese semiconductor firms could challenge the sustainability of the current uptrend.Morgan Stanley sees greater upside potential in Samsung Electronics compared to SK Hynix. While HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) market growth is already priced in, Samsung is expected to benefit more from NAND production cuts and a slower decline in DRAM prices, leading to a clearer earnings recovery.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Neutral

005930

Samsung Electronics

Analysts' Estimates Tend to Be Conservative (Oct 14, 2024)

Neutral

NONE

No Relevant Stock

Analysts' Estimates Tend to Be Conservative (Oct 14, 2024)

"Valuation Fundamentals"Key Insights:The Role of Growth Expectations and Subjective Discount RatesTraditional valuation models emphasize cash flow projections, but subjective discount rates play a critical role in analysts' estimates.Analysts adjust discount rates based on risk, market conditions, and company-specific factors, influencing valuation outcomes.Contribution to valuation variance: Growth expectations (72%), discount rates (28%).Risk-Free Rates and Subjective BetaDiscount rate fluctuations are driven by risk-free rates and analysts' subjective beta adjustments.Analysts do not apply market interest rates indiscriminately but adjust them to reflect long-term economic conditions and company sustainability.Predictive Power of Subjective Discount RatesAnalysts' discount rate adjustments align with future returns, implying that these estimates provide useful market insights.This challenges the assumption of market efficiency, suggesting analysts' insights are valuable.Subjective Beta and Risk PremiumsThe Security Market Line (SML) exhibits a steeper slope, meaning analysts demand higher risk premiums than traditional CAPM estimates.Investors expect greater compensation for risk, reinforcing the importance of analyst judgment.Bayesian Updating in Forecast RevisionsAnalysts refine their valuations incrementally rather than reacting immediately to new information.This minimizes estimation errors and reduces unnecessary volatility in stock price targets.Tracking Long-Term Growth RatesAnalysts’ long-term growth projections align with real GDP growth, rather than inflation.Despite using nominal valuation models, analysts' forecasts emphasize real economic expansion.Conclusion:Analysts’ valuation methodologies incorporate both growth projections and subjective discount rates, with risk adjustments aligning more closely with CAPM assumptions. Their incremental approach to revising estimates reflects a preference for stability over market reactivity, reinforcing the idea that market efficiency is not absolute.

Neutral

NONE

No Relevant Stock

Fail-Proof Investing: The Answer Lies in Guardrails (Nov 18, 2024)

Neutral

NONE

No Relevant Stock

Fail-Proof Investing: The Answer Lies in Guardrails (Nov 18, 2024)

Self-Control and Self-Awareness in InvestingPeople often fail to accurately assess their own actions, whether in daily life or investing. A study at an Italian restaurant revealed that one-third of diners couldn’t recall how much bread they had eaten, while 12% outright denied eating any. Additionally, those with average body weight underestimated their intake by 20%, while overweight individuals underestimated by 30–50%. This highlights a fundamental human limitation in objectively perceiving our own behavior.The same applies to investing.In bear markets, investors feel it's too early to buy and too late to sell.In bull markets, it feels too late to buy and too early to sell.Holding too much cash leaves investors paralyzed, unsure of when to invest.Large losses create confusion about when to cut losses.Holding investments for too long can lead to Enron or Lehman Brothers-like collapses.Why Investing Is DifficultNo one can predict the market with absolute certainty. Market tops and bottoms are impossible to time perfectly. If someone claims otherwise, they are either lucky or lying. So, what’s the solution?Investors Should Think Like Security GuardsWith more investment options than ever, filtering bad choices is crucial—just like a bouncer controlling entry at a club. Investors need to set clear criteria to eliminate distractions.Musician Jack White called this “freedom through restriction”. To maintain creativity, his band The White Stripes set strict limitations:No blues, no guitar solos, no slide guitar, no cover songs, and no bass.This forced creativity, leading to some of the best albums of the 2000s.The same principle applies to investing. Too many choices lead to confusion and wasted time. Defining clear investment rules and eliminating unnecessary decisions leads to better outcomes.Make Decisions in AdvanceMoney triggers fear, greed, and stress, clouding judgment. That’s why investment rules must be set in advance, ensuring decisions aren’t driven by emotions.Examples:What’s your plan if the market crashes?At what profit level will you sell a stock?What percentage of your portfolio should be in cash, stocks, and bonds?Focus on Process Over OutcomeSuccess in investing isn’t determined by short-term results but by following a consistent investment process.The market appears like a scoreboard, but short-term performance is misleading.Even the best investors make mistakes—nobody times the market perfectly.The key is to trust a reliable investment framework and stick to it.Set Up GuardrailsThe simplest guardrail in investing is asset allocation.If unsure when to invest cash, predefine stock, bond, and cash allocation targets.If unsure when to buy or sell, set minimum and maximum position sizes.Such rules reduce emotional decision-making and enable rational investing despite market volatility.Restrictions Create FreedomToday, a smartphone gives more communication power than a U.S. president had 25 years ago and more information than a president had 15 years ago. But more information isn’t always helpful—it increases the challenge of filtering out noise.The same is true for investing. Chasing every opportunity is counterproductive. Instead, define clear investment areas and strategies, and ignore distractions.Ultimately, investment success isn’t about market predictions—it’s about sticking to pre-established principles, avoiding emotional decisions, and maintaining a long-term perspective.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Neutral

NONE

No Relevant Stock

Tesla Offers Free FSD Trial in China, Shares Drop 4.8% (Mar 18, 2025)

Sell

TSLA

Tesla

Tesla Offers Free FSD Trial in China, Shares Drop 4.8% (Mar 18, 2025)

Tesla has announced a one-month free trial of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software in China. Unlike in the U.S., where FSD requires driver intervention, Tesla aims to launch it as a fully autonomous system in China. However, China’s strict data regulations prevent Tesla from using local driving data for AI training, creating challenges in improving FSD functionality.To overcome this, Tesla plans to use mapping data from Baidu, a leading Chinese tech firm. Still, concerns persist that Tesla’s FSD may lag behind local competitors such as BYD, XPeng, and Xiaomi. The announcement of free FSD trials has also sparked investor concerns about Tesla’s profitability and competitive edge in China.Meanwhile, Wall Street analysts have lowered their Tesla price targets.JPMorgan predicts Q1 deliveries will drop 8% YoY, slashing its price target from $135 → $120—the lowest among major Wall Street banks.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Sell

TSLA

Tesla

Gold Prices Surge with Strong Outlook (Mar 18, 2025)

Neutral

411060

ACE KRX Physical Gold

Gold Prices Surge with Strong Outlook (Mar 18, 2025)

1. Gold Rally and Economic UncertaintyBank of America (BofA), Citigroup, and Macquarie Group have issued bullish forecasts on gold as it surpasses $3,000 per ounce. Central banks' large-scale purchases, combined with strong buying from China, have nearly doubled gold prices over two years. Rising demand for safe-haven assets has further increased investor interest.Economic instability driven by Donald Trump’s trade policies has led to a decline in consumer confidence and rising inflation, further fueling the rally. Macquarie has raised its gold price target to $3,500.2. Gold ETF Inflows SurgeAfter four years of net outflows, gold-backed ETFs have turned positive in 2024. February’s inflows into North American gold ETFs reached the highest level since July 2020.Citigroup attributes this shift to economic slowdown concerns, prompting U.S. households to diversify their portfolios with gold ETFs. While retail investor participation remains limited, further inflows could drive prices even higher.3. Stock Market Risks and Short-Term Volatility in GoldHistorically, gold rises during economic uncertainty. However, if equity markets crash, investors may sell gold holdings to cover losses, leading to short-term corrections.TD Securities warns that, similar to the 2008-09 financial crisis and 2020 pandemic, a sharp risk-off event could temporarily push gold prices lower. Nevertheless, BofA remains bullish, expecting gold to reach $3,500 in the long run.4. Rising Real Interest Rates Fail to Dampen Gold DemandTypically, rising real interest rates reduce gold demand. However, in this rally, gold prices have surged despite higher rates.Macquarie attributes this anomaly to growing government debt and fiscal deficits, which are boosting gold’s appeal as a hedge against sovereign credit risks. Some investors are shifting funds from developed market bonds to gold, viewing it as a safer alternative.5. Central Bank Gold Buying ContinuesThe primary driver of gold’s 2024 rally has been central bank purchases. According to the World Gold Council, central banks added 18 tons of gold in January alone.China’s central bank has increased its holdings for four consecutive months, reaching 73.61 million ounces. Goldman Sachs expects strong central bank demand and rising investor inflows to push gold to $3,100 by year-end.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Neutral

411060

ACE KRX Physical Gold

Goldman Sachs Report: Magnificent 7 Decline and 2025 S&P 500 Target Cut (Mar 11, 2025)

Neutral

AAPL

Apple

Goldman Sachs Report: Magnificent 7 Decline and 2025 S&P 500 Target Cut (Mar 11, 2025)

Goldman Sachs has revised its 2025 S&P 500 target downward, citing weakness in the Magnificent 7 (Mag 7), economic uncertainty, and policy risks.1. Magnificent 7: From Dominance to Decline?Past Performance (2023):Mag 7 contributed to over half of the S&P 500’s 25% annual return, driving market gains.Current Crisis (March 2025):Mag 7 plunged 14% in three weeks, triggering a broader S&P 500 decline.Some analysts have started calling them the "Maleficent 7."Key Factors Behind the Decline:Policy Uncertainty: Potential tariff hikes are dampening investor confidence.Economic Slowdown Concerns: Growth forecasts are weakening, adding to investor anxiety.Hedge Fund Unwinding: Heavy long positions in Mag 7 are being liquidated, accelerating the sell-off.Market Implications:A market heavily reliant on a few large-cap tech stocks is vulnerable to volatility.Investors may need to diversify away from Mag 7 to reduce risk exposure.2. S&P 500 2025 Target CutGoldman Sachs now targets 6,200 for year-end 2025, down from 6,500 (-4%).Reasons for the Revision:Lower P/E Ratio Assumption:Cut from 21.5x to 20.6x amid heightened risk.Reduced EPS Growth Forecast:2025 EPS growth outlook cut from 9% to 7% (2026 remains at 7%).Macroeconomic Backdrop:U.S. GDP Growth Slowing: Goldman’s economic team revised growth projections downward.Tariff Increases Expected: Rising tariffs could erode corporate earnings.Higher Uncertainty: Political and economic risks are raising the equity risk premium.Supporting Data:Despite the cut, the new target still suggests an 11% upside from current levels.Goldman now forecasts 2025 EPS at $262 and 2026 EPS at $280, below consensus estimates.3. Additional ConsiderationsImpact of Tariffs:A 5% tariff increase could reduce S&P 500 EPS by 1-2%, assuming firms pass most costs to consumers.Market Risk Indicators:The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has surged.The spread between S&P 500 earnings yield and real 10-year Treasury yield has widened.ConclusionThe decline of Mag 7 and the S&P 500 target cut reflect Goldman Sachs' cautious stance on U.S. equities.Rising policy risks, slowing growth, and increased volatility signal a more uncertain market environment.Investors should focus on risk management and portfolio diversification in response to these shifts.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Neutral

AAPL

Apple

Samsung Targets AI-Optimized SSD Market with ‘Titan’ to Unlock New Memory Revenue Streams (Mar 14, 2025)

Neutral

005930

Samsung Electronics

Samsung Targets AI-Optimized SSD Market with ‘Titan’ to Unlock New Memory Revenue Streams (Mar 14, 2025)

Samsung Electronics is accelerating its push into the enterprise SSD market, leveraging the rapid adoption of generative AI technologies. Through its ‘Titan’ project, the company aims to integrate AI-optimized controllers into its SSDs, offering them as a subscription-based service to enhance AI processing efficiency in data centers. This strategy is designed to create new revenue streams amid a sluggish rebound in the DRAM and NAND flash markets.The Titan project involves long-term subscription contracts with major global server providers, ensuring seamless AI integration into enterprise storage solutions. Samsung’s ultra-high-capacity SSDs, built on proprietary technology, focus on maintaining a competitive edge over rivals, while also strengthening customer retention (lock-in effect).The global SSD market is experiencing rapid expansion. Market research projects growth from KRW 95 trillion (USD 72 billion) in 2024 to KRW 213 trillion (USD 162 billion) by 2029. Samsung retained its leading position in the enterprise SSD segment with a 39.5% market share in Q4 2024, but faces intensifying competition from SK Hynix and other industry players.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Neutral

005930

Samsung Electronics

Morgan Stanley Lowers Apple Price Target Amid AI Delays & Tariff Concerns (Mar 12, 2025)

Neutral

AAPL

Apple

Morgan Stanley Lowers Apple Price Target Amid AI Delays & Tariff Concerns (Mar 12, 2025)

Apple (AAPL) shares have come under pressure recently due to AI feature delays and tariff burdens. Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring maintained an Overweight (Buy) rating on Apple but lowered the price target from $275 to $252.Key Reasons for Target CutAI-Enhanced Siri Delayed:Woodring highlighted that delays in the AI-upgraded Siri could negatively impact iPhone sales, as AI improvements are among the most anticipated upgrades.Apple’s stock declined for three consecutive sessions following news of the Siri delay.Lower iPhone Shipment Estimates:Woodring trimmed 2025 and 2026 iPhone shipment forecasts by 1-5%,Predicting iPhone shipments will reach approximately 230 million units in 2025.Tariff Concerns:U.S. import tariffs are another headwind for Apple, potentially impacting profitability.Despite these short-term challenges, Woodring maintained a Buy rating, citing Apple’s long-term strengths. However, he acknowledged that the AI delay and trade issues justify a price target reduction to $252.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Neutral

AAPL

Apple

"Analysts Afraid to Issue 'Sell' Ratings While Korean Market Weakens" (Oct 30, 2024)

Sell

005930

Samsung Electronics

"Analysts Afraid to Issue 'Sell' Ratings While Korean Market Weakens" (Oct 30, 2024)

The influence of global investment banks (IBs) on Korean stocks has never been stronger. On September 15, Morgan Stanley slashed SK Hynix's target price from 260,000 KRW to 120,000 KRW, downgrading its rating from "Buy" to "Sell." When trading resumed after the Chuseok holiday on September 19, SK Hynix shares plummeted 6.14%. Similarly, Macquarie recently cut Samsung Electronics' target price from 125,000 KRW to 64,000 KRW, downgrading it from "Buy" to "Neutral." As a result, Samsung’s stock fell below 60,000 KRW, marking a new 52-week low.Why Are Korea’s Leading Stocks Collapsing?There are two key reasons for this:1. Korean Analysts’ Reluctance to Issue ‘Sell’ RatingsDomestic analysts almost never publish ‘Sell’ reports, making foreign IB research seem more credible to investors. With Korean securities firms consistently issuing "Buy" ratings, investors turn to foreign reports for more objective insights—which has triggered massive sell-offs in stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.The issue stems from the conflict of interest between brokerage firms and the companies they cover. Since securities firms earn fees from these companies, issuing negative reports risks upsetting corporate clients. As a result, even when companies underperform, analysts continue to recommend buying.One notable example occurred in April 2023, when an analyst issued the first "Sell" rating on EcoPro. The Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) launched an investigation, suspecting collusion with short-sellers. While the FSS later justified its actions as a response to investor complaints, the incident demonstrated the risks analysts face when issuing negative ratings.2. Weak Market Structure & Investor SentimentThe second issue is the fragility of the Korean stock market itself. The impact of foreign reports is so severe because domestic investors lack the buying power to counteract foreign sell-offs.Even when global semiconductor companies received similar downgrades, Korean firms suffered disproportionately larger stock declines, exposing the weakness of Korea’s capital markets. This issue is further compounded by:Heavy reliance on foreign investment, making local stocks vulnerable to external shocks.Lack of domestic institutional support, meaning retail investors often bear the brunt of market volatility.Conspiracy Theories & Market Manipulation ConcernsWhenever major stocks collapse, conspiracy theories about market manipulation arise. Some suspect coordination between short-sellers and foreign IBs, particularly after Morgan Stanley’s Seoul branch sold 1.01 million SK Hynix shares just before issuing its bearish report on October 13.However, there’s no clear evidence of illegal activity. Foreign ownership of SK Hynix still remains at 54%, and accusations of front-running would require proof that these banks intentionally manipulated the market—an unlikely scenario given the regulatory risks.The Need for Reform: Strengthening Korea’s Capital MarketsInstead of chasing conspiracy theories, Korea must address the root causes of the problem:Enhancing Analyst Independence: Analysts must be able to issue objective research without corporate or regulatory pressure.Strengthening Domestic Institutional Support: Korea must build a more resilient market structure to absorb external shocks.Ending ‘Buy-Only’ Research Culture: Securities firms must prioritize credibility over client relationships to rebuild investor trust.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Sell

005930

Samsung Electronics

"Buy" Ratings Despite Samsung's Earnings Shock: Are Local Brokerages Ignoring Reality?" (Oct 14, 2024)

Neutral

005930

Samsung Electronics

"Buy" Ratings Despite Samsung's Earnings Shock: Are Local Brokerages Ignoring Reality?" (Oct 14, 2024)

"Even after Samsung's stock dropped more than 30%, local brokerages kept shouting 'buy.' I followed their recommendations and now I'm stuck."Even as Samsung Electronics' stock price plunged to the "₩50,000 range" after a disastrous Q3 earnings report, domestic securities firms continued issuing "buy" recommendations without exception.Earnings Shock & Stock DeclineOn October 8, Samsung Electronics reported Q3 operating profit of ₩9.1 trillion, down 12.8% from Q2. The company issued a rare apology statement acknowledging the weak results. Despite this, from October 8–10, not a single local brokerage issued a "sell" rating. Instead, 14 securities firms—including KB Securities, NH Investment & Securities, and Kiwoom Securities—maintained "buy" ratings.Meanwhile, Samsung’s stock fell 31.32% from ₩87,800 on July 10 to October 8, breaking the ₩60,000 level three times. Despite this, local brokerages did not issue a single "sell" report, unlike foreign investment banks (IBs).Morgan Stanley (Sep 15):Report: "Winter Looms"Cut Samsung’s target price from ₩105,000 → ₩76,000 (-27.6%)Reasons: HBM oversupply, declining DRAM prices, and weak smartphone/PC demand.Macquarie (Late Sep):Cut target price from ₩125,000 → ₩64,000 (-48.8%)Reasons: Memory price declines & oversupply.In contrast, domestic brokerages dismissed these concerns, arguing that "negative factors were already priced in." However, Samsung’s Q3 earnings shock ultimately validated the foreign IBs’ warnings.Delayed Target Price Cuts: Too Little, Too LateAfter the Q3 earnings report, domestic brokerages finally lowered their target prices—but only after the damage was done:Target Price Downgrades (After Q3 Earnings Report):iM Securities: ₩77,000 → ₩76,000DB Financial: ₩100,000 → ₩90,000KB Securities: ₩95,000 → ₩80,000NH Investment: ₩92,000 → ₩90,000Eugene Investment: ₩91,000 → ₩82,000Hyundai Motor Securities: ₩104,000 → ₩86,000Heungkuk Securities: ₩110,000 → ₩88,000At the same time, seven brokerages left their target prices unchanged, reinforcing suspicions of biased analysis.Retail Investors Take the HitForeign Investors Sold ₩8.2 Trillion of Samsung Stock (Sep 8 – Oct 8)Retail Investors Bought ₩7 Trillion Worth of Samsung StockSamsung’s Margin Debt (Leverage Trading) Surged 49.4% to ₩923.6 BillionRetail investors, influenced by domestic brokerages' optimistic reports, heavily bought Samsung shares, even increasing margin debt to its highest level in three years. This suggests that brokerage firms' misleading optimism led retail investors into leveraged losses.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Neutral

005930

Samsung Electronics

Morgan Stanley Downgrade Sends SK Hynix Down 7%, Samsung Hits 1-Year Low (Sep 19, 2024)

Sell

005930

Samsung Electronics

Morgan Stanley Downgrade Sends SK Hynix Down 7%, Samsung Hits 1-Year Low (Sep 19, 2024)

Shares of SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics plunged in early trading on September 19, following a sharp target price cut by Morgan Stanley. The report, released during the Korean Chuseok holiday, significantly lowered its valuation for both chipmakers, triggering investor concerns.Market ReactionAs of 9:25 AM KST:SK Hynix fell 7.00% (-₩11,400) to ₩151,400.Samsung Electronics dropped 1.71% (-₩1,100) to ₩63,300, hitting an intraday low of ₩62,700—its lowest in a year.Morgan Stanley's Downgrade: "Winter Looms"New Target Prices:SK Hynix: ₩260,000 → ₩120,000 (-54%)Samsung Electronics: ₩105,000 → ₩76,000 (-27%)Key Reasons for Downgrade:DRAM Cycle Peaking in Q4 → Downturn expected through 2026.HBM Oversupply Risk → Rising production may push prices down.Chinese Chipmakers Expanding Aggressively → Increased competition may erode Korean firms’ dominance.Morgan Stanley's pessimistic outlook follows its August warning—"Prepare for the semiconductor cycle peak"—which questioned whether the industry could sustain its 2025 growth expectations.The "Winter Looms" title echoes its 2021 report, "Memory Winter is Coming," which accurately predicted the last downturn. This historical accuracy may explain the market's strong reaction.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Sell

005930

Samsung Electronics

Samsung Hits New Lows: Where Is the Bottom? (Sep 11, 2024)

Sell

005930

Samsung Electronics

Samsung Hits New Lows: Where Is the Bottom? (Sep 11, 2024)

Samsung Electronics extended its losing streak to seven consecutive sessions, hitting its lowest level of the year amid growing concerns over Q3 earnings and U.S. recession fears.Market Reaction & Foreign Selling PressureOn September 11, Samsung closed at ₩64,900 (-1.96%), marking another 52-week low after hitting ₩66,000 the previous day.Meanwhile, in the U.S. stock market (Sept 10 ET):NVIDIA gained +1.53% to $108.10, reflecting continued strength in AI stocks.However, Samsung failed to benefit, suggesting that investors remain skeptical of its AI positioning.Foreign investors sold ₩2.69 trillion worth of Samsung shares over six trading days (Sept 3–10), exacerbating downward pressure.Brokerage Downgrades on Q3 Earnings ConcernsTarget Price Cuts:Korea Investment & Securities: ₩120,000 → ₩96,000KB Securities: ₩130,000 → ₩95,000Hyundai Motor Securities: ₩110,000 → ₩104,000DB Financial Investment: ₩110,000 → ₩100,000Meritz Securities: ₩108,000 → ₩95,000Key Drivers of Downgrades:Weak B2C Demand → Sluggish consumer demand affecting memory shipments.Inventory Concerns → Smartphone memory inventory rising to 13–14 weeks, pressuring DRAM/NAND shipments.One-Time Costs → Semiconductor bonus provisions & lower inventory valuation gains impacting Q3 earnings.Korea Investment & Securities Q3 Forecast:Revenue: ₩79.3 trillion (-5% vs. consensus ₩83.3 trillion)Operating Profit: ₩10.3 trillion (-23% vs. consensus ₩13 trillion, below Q2’s ₩10.4 trillion)Chae Min-sook (Korea Investment & Securities):"Both DRAM and NAND shipments will decline QoQ.""ASP (Average Selling Price) gains will remain single-digit, limiting upside.""Q3 earnings are expected to miss estimates."Will HBM Expansion in Q4 Be a Turning Point?Despite Q3 concerns, analysts highlight Samsung’s plan to expand High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) sales in Q4.Kim Ji-won (KB Securities):"Samsung plans to significantly increase HBM shipments in Q4.""If premium product sales rise, Q4 earnings should improve QoQ."However, market skepticism remains high regarding Samsung’s ability to catch up in AI-driven semiconductor demand.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Sell

005930

Samsung Electronics

Conflicting Views on Samsung: What’s Next for Investors? (Aug 9, 2024)

Sell

005930

Samsung Electronics

Conflicting Views on Samsung: What’s Next for Investors? (Aug 9, 2024)

Analysts remain deeply divided on Samsung Electronics, with some raising target prices to ₩130,000, while others cut them below ₩100,000.The key debate centers around Samsung’s position in the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market. While some see a turnaround with HBM3E mass production, others fear oversupply risks.For now, the market leans bullish, citing rising CAPEX guidance from Big Tech companies as a key tailwind for AI infrastructure investments.Brokerage Target Price RevisionsBullish: KB Securities (₩120,000 → ₩130,000)Justification: HBM3E supply ramp-up.Kim Dong-won (Head of Research, KB Securities):"Samsung is entering a phase where concerns are rapidly turning into optimism.""With HBM3E mass production expected in Q4, we see Samsung as the top KOSPI pick for H2."Samsung lags SK Hynix in HBM3E adoption:SK Hynix began HBM3E 8-layer supply to NVIDIA in March and will start HBM3E 12-layer shipments in Q4.Samsung is still undergoing NVIDIA’s quality testing and plans Q3 mass production for HBM3E 8-layer, with HBM3E 12-layer shipments later this year.Bearish: iM Securities (formerly Hi Investment & Securities) (₩101,000 → ₩97,000)Concerns:HBM oversupply risk in 2025.Samsung’s HBM3E supply ramp-up may intensify competition, leading to pricing pressure.AI investment bubble concerns.Song Myung-seop (iM Securities):"This year, HBM demand is expected to reach 880 million GB, but production plans total 1.38 billion GB.""If NVIDIA begins purchasing Samsung’s HBM3E, we could see oversupply and margin compression in the HBM sector."Additionally, NVIDIA’s Blackwell AI accelerator delay could further impact Samsung’s HBM3E adoption.The Information (U.S. tech media):Blackwell production was postponed from late 2024 to Q1 2025.Since HBM3E is a core component of Blackwell, delays could push back Samsung’s shipments.However, KB Securities argues this could work in Samsung’s favor, allowing it more time for mass production preparation.Big Tech CAPEX: The AI Investment Cycle ContinuesDespite AI bubble concerns, Big Tech companies continue to raise AI-related infrastructure spending.Meta increased 2024 CAPEX guidance from $35B → $37B.H1 CAPEX: $15.2BH2 projected CAPEX: $21.8BMicrosoft and Amazon have also signaled higher H2 spending.Shin Ji-hyun (Shinhan Investment & Securities):"Meta’s CAPEX revision reaffirms strong confidence in AI investment."If quarter-over-quarter CAPEX increases, this could fuel further AI value chain growth, benefiting Samsung’s AI-related semiconductor sales.Legacy DRAM & NAND: Supply Shortages Emerging?While HBM faces supply concerns, legacy DRAM and NAND markets are tightening.Morgan Stanley:"The shift toward HBM has created investment gaps in traditional DRAM, leading to potential shortages."Predicts a 23% demand-supply gap in DRAM for 2024, driving price increases.DRAM Pricing:PC DRAM (DDR4 8Gb 1Gx8): $2.10 (as of July 31, stable for 3 months).Shinhan Investment:"Stronger-than-expected memory price growth could offset some of the bearish pressures on Samsung’s stock."Samsung plans to mass-produce QLC-based 64TB and 128TB eSSD products in H2 2024, aiming to capitalize on NAND pricing recovery.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Sell

005930

Samsung Electronics

"₩120,000 Samsung?"—Brokerages Cheer Surprise Earnings (Jul 13, 2024)

Sell

005930

Samsung Electronics

"₩120,000 Samsung?"—Brokerages Cheer Surprise Earnings (Jul 13, 2024)

This week, brokerages turned bullish on Samsung Electronics, driven by a strong Q2 earnings beat and expectations of a memory market recovery.In contrast, battery stocks like LG Energy Solution and Samsung SDI faced target price cuts due to weak EV demand in Europe. Retail and gaming sectors also received pessimistic outlooks.Between July 8–12 (10 AM KST), analysts raised target prices for 153 stocks while lowering them for 104.Samsung Electronics: Target Price UpgradesSamsung was the main focus for brokerage firms this week, with 9 firms raising their target prices. Some even revived hopes of "₩120,000 Samsung."Kiwoom Securities: ₩110,000 → ₩120,000Samsung’s Q2 earnings significantly exceeded expectations:Revenue: ₩74 trillion (+23.31% YoY)Operating profit: ₩10.4 trillion (+1,452% YoY, 25% above consensus ₩8.3 trillion)What Drove the Earnings Surprise?Memory Price Increases → Higher ASP (Average Selling Price) drove profitability.OLED Shipments Surge → Increased adoption in tablet displays.Foldable Smartphone Early Launch → Boosted display division earnings.Chae Min-sook (Korea Investment & Securities):"The earnings beat was driven by price increases rather than volume growth in memory."Sustained Recovery or Temporary Boost?While Samsung lags in AI-related semiconductors, some analysts remain optimistic:Lee Min-hee (BNK Securities):"Samsung has been slow to compete in HBM and AI chips, limiting its exposure to the AI boom.""However, the general memory market recovery and non-memory profit improvements are driving a steady rise in earnings."LG Electronics: Another Earnings SurpriseLG Electronics also reported a strong Q2 performance, attracting positive revisions:NH Investment & Securities:Target price raised from ₩130,000 → ₩150,000.Q2 operating profit: ₩1.2 trillion (+61.2% YoY, above ₩1 trillion consensus).Key driver: Improved home appliance profitability.Market dominance remains intact, and AI-integrated appliances could boost demand.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Sell

005930

Samsung Electronics

"Samsung Target Price Slashed from ₩125,000 to ₩64,000"—Inside Macquarie’s Report (Oct 1, 2024)

Sell

005930

Samsung Electronics

"Samsung Target Price Slashed from ₩125,000 to ₩64,000"—Inside Macquarie’s Report (Oct 1, 2024)

Global brokerage Macquarie has cut its target price for Samsung Electronics by 50%, citing deteriorating memory market conditions. This follows a similarly bearish outlook from Morgan Stanley, marking another harsh assessment of the Korean semiconductor industry from foreign investment banks.Macquarie’s Key TakeawaysAccording to the financial investment industry, Macquarie downgraded Samsung from "Buy" to "Neutral" in a late-September report and cut its target price from ₩125,000 to ₩64,000 (-48.8%).Reasons for the Downgrade:Memory Market Downcycle → Declining profitability.DRAM Oversupply → ASP (Average Selling Price) is reversing downward.Weak Demand from Downstream Industries → Pressuring earnings.HBM Supply Delays to NVIDIA → Weakening stock momentum.Macquarie even raised the possibility that Samsung could lose its status as the world’s No.1 DRAM supplier.Additionally, Samsung’s HBM revenue forecast for 2026 is only $13 billion, compared to SK Hynix’s $30 billion—just 43% of its competitor’s projected sales.How Does This Compare to Korean Brokerages?While domestic securities firms have also been lowering Samsung’s target price, none have made a cut as drastic as Macquarie’s.Park Yoo-jin (Kiwoom Securities) argues that DRAM investment is not excessive and believes the market will shift from oversupply (2024) to undersupply (2025).This contrast suggests that Korean analysts may still be overly optimistic, underestimating the depth of the structural challenges Samsung faces.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Sell

005930

Samsung Electronics

Samsung’s Semiconductor Profit Could Again Fall Behind SK Hynix (Oct 6, 2024)

Sell

005930

Samsung Electronics

Samsung’s Semiconductor Profit Could Again Fall Behind SK Hynix (Oct 6, 2024)

Samsung Electronics’ semiconductor (DS) division may report lower Q3 earnings than SK Hynix, as the latter continues to dominate the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market.Concerns over a prolonged semiconductor downturn are now compounded by fears that Samsung could lose its position as the world’s top DRAM supplier. Reflecting this uncertainty, Samsung’s market cap share on the KOSPI has dropped to a two-year low.Q3 Earnings Forecast: Samsung vs. SK HynixSamsung Electronics is set to release its Q3 preliminary results on October 8. While detailed segment earnings will not be disclosed, the DS division is expected to contribute over 50% of total operating profit.According to FnGuide, Samsung’s Q3 projections are:Revenue: ₩80.9 trillionOperating profit: ₩10.77 trillionDS division operating profit: ₩5 trillion rangeMemory business profit estimate: ₩5.2 trillion – ₩6.3 trillionSince Samsung’s foundry and system LSI segments remain weak, most of the DS division’s earnings will come from memory chips.In contrast, SK Hynix is expected to report:Revenue: ₩18.1 trillionOperating profit: ₩6.77 trillionIf these forecasts hold, SK Hynix’s memory business could surpass Samsung’s DS division by ₩400 billion to ₩1.5 trillion.This would mark another quarter where SK Hynix outperforms Samsung’s semiconductor division, after having done so for five consecutive quarters from Q1 2022 to Q1 2024. Samsung briefly regained its lead in Q2 2024, but its position is once again at risk.Analysts now speculate that SK Hynix could overtake Samsung in full-year semiconductor operating profit, something previously unimaginable.HBM: The Market Shift Driving SK Hynix’s EdgeThe HBM segment is a key driver of this shift. HBM chips are 3 to 5 times more expensive than standard DRAM, and SK Hynix currently leads this market, securing lucrative contracts with major AI players like NVIDIA.Reflecting these concerns, Macquarie recently downgraded Samsung’s investment rating from "Buy" to "Neutral" and slashed its target price by 50%, from ₩125,000 → ₩64,000.Following Macquarie’s report, domestic securities firms also lowered their price targets, further pressuring Samsung’s stock.On October 2, Samsung hit a 52-week low of ₩59,900 intraday. As of last month, Samsung’s common stock market cap share on the KOSPI fell to 18.61%, its lowest level since October 2022 (18.05%).Samsung’s Response: AI Vision Amid Competitive ChallengesOn October 4, Samsung hosted its 2024 Tech Forum in Silicon Valley, gathering global industry leaders to discuss AI and future business strategies.At the event, Han Jong-hee, CEO of Samsung DX (Device eXperience) division, emphasized:“Samsung is committed to developing AI that enhances daily life.”“Through 'AI for All,' we envision another technological transformation for the future.”However, Samsung’s AI ambitions contrast sharply with its current market challenges. The company’s lagging position in the HBM market suggests that it is struggling to translate its AI vision into real technological leadership.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Sell

005930

Samsung Electronics

Buy or Escape? Samsung’s ‘₩100,000 Dream’ Faces Harsh Reality (Sep 11, 2024)

Sell

005930

Samsung Electronics

Buy or Escape? Samsung’s ‘₩100,000 Dream’ Faces Harsh Reality (Sep 11, 2024)

Samsung Electronics, the largest stock on the KOSPI, continues its relentless decline. Amid growing fears of a U.S. recession and weaker-than-expected Q3 earnings, the stock hit a new 52-week low, sparking a debate between bulls and bears over its recovery prospects.According to the Korea Exchange on September 11, Samsung Electronics closed at ₩64,900, down 1.96% from the previous session. During the session, the stock plunged over 3% to ₩64,200, marking a new 52-week low. This level was last seen in May 2023.Samsung Electronics has lost 18.5% year-to-date and has dropped 14% in just the past month (Aug 12 – Sep 11).With the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision set for September 17–18 (U.S. time), market caution is rising, exacerbating risk-off sentiment in large-cap stocks.Additionally, skepticism about AI-driven growth sustainability is fueling concerns over the overvaluation of major tech stocks.Diverging Views on Semiconductor OutlookSecurities firms are sharply divided on the semiconductor industry’s prospects.Bearish Case: Earnings Decline and Target CutsSome analysts remain pessimistic, forecasting disappointing Q3 earnings and cutting their price targets.Chae Min-sook (Korea Investment & Securities): Lowered Q3 operating profit forecast to ₩10.3 trillion (vs. consensus of ₩13.3 trillion).Reasons for the downgrade:Rising memory inventories at smartphone makers are weighing on DRAM and NAND shipments.ASP (Average Selling Price) growth is expected to be in the low single digits.One-off costs related to performance-based bonuses (PS) in the semiconductor division.Price target cut from ₩120,000 → ₩96,000.Noh Geun-chang (Hyundai Motor Securities): Cited ongoing weakness in smartphone and PC demand due to high interest rates and inflation.Lowered price target from ₩110,000 → ₩104,000.Other recent target cuts include:KB Securities: ₩130,000 → ₩95,000DB Financial Investment: ₩110,000 → ₩100,000Bullish Case: DRAM Price Rebound & AI GrowthOptimists argue that memory chip price recovery could extend Samsung's growth cycle.Park Yoo-ak (Kiwoom Securities):Acknowledges NAND market slowdown and a weaker Korean won as headwinds.However, believes that DRAM’s supply-driven upcycle is still intact.Recommends a buy strategy, given the sharp price correction.Baek Gil-hyun (Yuanta Securities):Forecasts DRAM and NAND prices to rise 11% QoQ in Q3.Highlights potential AI-driven demand from device makers in Q4 and Q1 2025.Some analysts maintain that long-term bottom-fishing strategies remain viable.Noh Geun-chang (Hyundai Motor Securities):Despite near-term risks, expects earnings momentum to continue.Suggests buying on dips for long-term demand recovery.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Samsung Electronics

Falling Price Targets… Only False Hope Remains for Semiconductors (Sep 23, 2024)

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Samsung Electronics

Falling Price Targets… Only False Hope Remains for Semiconductors (Sep 23, 2024)

Concerns over a deteriorating semiconductor outlook continue to grow, weighing heavily on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Once flooded with bullish forecasts, securities firms are now rapidly slashing their price targets.On September 19, Samsung Electronics hit a new 52-week low of ₩62,200, while SK Hynix briefly fell to the ₩150,000 range, returning to levels seen at the beginning of the year.According to FnGuide on September 23, the average price targets for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, as of September 22, stood at:Samsung Electronics: ₩101,958SK Hynix: ₩262,280This represents a 7.97% drop for Samsung Electronics from ₩110,783 on August 22, and a 4.51% decline for SK Hynix from ₩274,667 over the past month.Ironically, securities firms were raising price targets for both companies as recently as July and August, even as AI investment concerns started to weigh on semiconductor stocks. Now, they have reversed their forecasts.Securities Firms’ Shifting Price TargetsAn analysis of this year’s price target trends shows that July and August saw the highest projections, only for them to be cut sharply in September:Samsung Electronics’ average price target (by month):January: ₩94,621April: ₩104,647June: ₩109,071July: ₩110,692August: ₩113,462 → 80% above the current price (₩62,600)September: ₩97,750 (14% decline from August)Some firms have lowered targets below their January estimates:BNK Securities: ₩86,000 → ₩81,000NH Investment & Securities: ₩95,000 → ₩92,000Korea Investment & Securities: ₩99,000 → ₩96,000SK Hynix’s price target trend:January: ₩169,000July: ₩277,655 (+64% from January)September: ₩253,750 (-8% from July)Global Analysts Turn Bearish on SemiconductorsThe bearish sentiment isn’t limited to South Korea. Morgan Stanley, which recently slashed its price targets for Samsung and SK Hynix, also downgraded ASML, a key semiconductor equipment supplier, from "Overweight" to "Neutral".According to FnGuide, analysts from at least three institutions have cut their estimates for Samsung Electronics' Q3 earnings:Operating profit estimate: ₩11.70 trillion (14.3% lower than a month ago)Revenue estimate: ₩81.89 trillion (down 2.6%)SK Hynix’s Q3 forecasts have also been trimmed:Revenue: ₩18.20 trillion (-0.9%)Operating profit: ₩6.94 trillion (-2.0%)Contradictions in Securities Firms’ RatingsDespite the sharp price target cuts, no securities firm has downgraded its investment rating on either Samsung or SK Hynix. In fact, some analysts have even raised their ratings:Kiwoom Securities upgraded SK Hynix from "Market Perform" to "Buy" in August.Yuanta Securities’ Baek Gil-hyun, who cut his Samsung Electronics price target from ₩110,000 to ₩90,000 and SK Hynix from ₩270,000 to ₩220,000, still maintains a "Buy" recommendation.He argues that the semiconductor industry remains a "sector to overweight," predicting a rebound in 2025 as inventory adjustments end and AI-driven IT demand returns.However, most analysts agree that semiconductor stocks will remain volatile in the near term.Q4 Guidance Will Be a Key Market CatalystKB Securities’ Lee Eun-taek emphasized that upcoming earnings releases from Micron and Samsung Electronics will be crucial.“Unless we see a major upside surprise, volatility will persist.”“The most important factor will be guidance for mid-Q4.Depending on the outlook, the market may either fully price in negative factors or immediately rebound.”[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Samsung Electronics

End of Tightening Cycle: Rate Cuts Begin, but Market Cautious (Sep 19, 2024)

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Samsung Electronics

End of Tightening Cycle: Rate Cuts Begin, but Market Cautious (Sep 19, 2024)

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has officially ended its four-and-a-half-year tightening cycle by cutting interest rates at the September FOMC meeting. The 50 basis point (bp) cut ("big cut") has sparked uncertainty in global markets, with increased volatility expected in the near term.As concerns about an economic slowdown persist, investors are likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach until key economic indicators are released at the end of the month.According to the Korea Exchange on September 19, the KOSPI closed at 2,580.80, up 5.39 points (0.21%) from the previous session.Although the Fed’s rate cut met market expectations, foreign investors were net sellers, dragging down the KOSPI. Foreign investors offloaded ₩1.1765 trillion worth of shares, marking the largest sell-off since "Black Monday" on August 5.Semiconductor Stocks Drag Down the MarketSemiconductor stocks, which dominate the Korean stock market, failed to rally. Morgan Stanley sharply cut its price targets for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix during the Chuseok holiday, further weakening investor sentiment.SK Hynix’s price target: Slashed from ₩260,000 to ₩120,000 → Stock plunged 6.14%.Samsung Electronics’ price target: Cut from ₩105,000 to ₩76,000 → Stock fell over 2%.The KOSDAQ index also saw a rollercoaster session, opening higher, dropping 0.45% intraday, before rebounding 0.86% to close at 739.51.U.S. Markets React Volatilely to Rate CutOn September 18 (U.S. time), Wall Street experienced significant swings following the Fed’s rate cut.Dow Jones: +375.79 points intraday → Closed -103 points (-0.25%) at 41,503.10.S&P 500 and Nasdaq: Hit new all-time highs intraday → Closed lower.Investors initially cheered the large rate cut, but sentiment deteriorated on concerns that the Fed was preemptively responding to a potential economic downturn.Fed Chair Jerome Powell attempted to downplay recession fears, stating that there was no clear evidence of a heightened risk of recession. However, his remarks failed to ease market concerns.Key Economic Data to WatchMarket participants await key U.S. economic indicators at the end of September, which could determine the market's next direction. If economic slowdown fears resurface, a deeper market decline is possible.September 23: U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMIAugust PMI: 47.2 (up from 46.8 in July but still below the expansion threshold of 50).September 26: U.S. Q2 GDPFed revised 2024 GDP growth forecast from 2.1% → 2.0%.September 27: U.S. August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index (Fed’s preferred inflation measure).Diverging Views: Caution vs. Rebound PotentialChoi Sung-rak, Head of Stock Analysis at the International Finance Center, highlighted recession risks:"The biggest risk for equity markets is economic slowdown.""This year’s stock market rally was driven by corporate earnings, making markets more sensitive to recession fears.""AI and semiconductor stocks have already corrected about 15% from their July highs. If there is no sector rotation into other industries, the broader market could see an extended correction."Some analysts argue that foreign capital inflows could trigger a sharp rebound.Cho Joon-ki, SK Securities:"If the right reversal trigger emerges, the market could bounce back strongly.""This rate cut cycle is likely to be a soft landing rather than a response to a recession.""If risk appetite returns, a massive foreign capital inflow could fuel an explosive rally."Bank of America Global Research expects further aggressive rate cuts:Q4 2024: 75 bp cuts.2025: 125 bp additional cuts.The Fed has two more FOMC meetings scheduled for November and December.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Samsung Electronics

Why Is ‘₩50,000 Samsung’ Struggling While Global Semiconductor Stocks Soar? (Oct 11, 2024)

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Samsung Electronics

Why Is ‘₩50,000 Samsung’ Struggling While Global Semiconductor Stocks Soar? (Oct 11, 2024)

Samsung Electronics' stock price has fallen below ₩60,000 for the first time in 17 months, despite the strong performance of U.S. semiconductor stocks. As South Korea’s largest market-cap stock struggles, the KOSPI index failed to break above 2,600, closing in the 2,500 range. Meanwhile, the U.S. stock market hit record highs, boosted by tech stock gains and falling oil prices.According to the Korea Exchange on October 10, Samsung Electronics closed at ₩58,900, down 2.32%, marking its lowest level since March 16, 2023 (₩59,900) and setting a new 52-week low. The ongoing impact of weak earnings has driven the stock down by over 11% in the past month. Analysts expect continued poor performance in Q4, leading to a wave of target price downgrades.Samsung’s decline also weighed on the broader market, limiting the KOSPI’s gains. While other semiconductor stocks like SK Hynix (+4.89%) and Hanmi Semiconductor (+3.07%) surged, the KOSPI managed only a 0.19% increase, closing at 2,599.16.The Korean stock market has remained sluggish since the global sell-off on August 5. According to the Bank of Korea’s latest international finance and foreign exchange report, foreign investors sold $5.57 billion worth of South Korean stocks in September, marking the largest outflow since May 2021 (-$8.23 billion). The sharp increase in stock outflows also turned South Korea’s overall securities investment (stocks + bonds) into net outflows for the first time since October 2023.U.S. Stocks Hit New Highs as Semiconductor Sector StrengthensIn contrast, the New York Stock Exchange set new record highs:Dow Jones: +1.03% to 42,512.00S&P 500: +0.71% to 5,792.04 (44th all-time high this year)Nasdaq: +0.60% to 18,291.62The semiconductor sector soared, fueled by TSMC’s stronger-than-expected September sales.ASML: +2.63%ARM: +3.36%Qualcomm: +2.33%Falling oil prices also boosted market sentiment. WTI crude oil for November delivery fell 0.45% to $73.24 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.Meanwhile, the release of the September U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes introduced some uncertainty regarding future interest rate cuts, but the market largely shrugged it off. The minutes revealed that several Fed officials supported a ‘small cut’ (0.25 percentage points), contradicting earlier reports that only one official, Michelle Bowman, had backed a cut.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Samsung Electronics

Samsung Electronics Continues Downward Trend as Q3 Earnings Concerns Grow (Sep 11, 2024)

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Samsung Electronics

Samsung Electronics Continues Downward Trend as Q3 Earnings Concerns Grow (Sep 11, 2024)

Samsung Electronics' stock extended its losing streak for the seventh consecutive session, hitting a new year-to-date low during early trading on September 11.The stock closed at ₩64,900, down 1.96%, marking its seventh straight day of losses since September 3. During the session, it dropped as low as ₩64,200, setting a new 52-week low.Despite NVIDIA’s stock rising 1.53% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gaining 1% on September 10 (U.S. time), investor sentiment toward Samsung Electronics remained weak, failing to stage a rebound.Q3 Earnings Expectations Fall Below Market ConsensusOn the same day, Korea Investment & Securities slashed Samsung Electronics' target price by 20%, citing expectations that Q3 results will fall short of market consensus.Chae Min-sook, an analyst at Korea Investment & Securities, forecasted:Revenue: ₩79.3 trillion (5% below consensus)Operating profit: ₩10.3 trillion (23% below consensus)Chae noted:Samsung has been cutting production since 2023, with a strong focus on HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) production capacity.Due to these factors, supply growth will remain constrained even in 2025.If average selling prices (ASPs) begin to decline, the supply-demand balance will likely persist longer than in previous downturns, leading to a more gradual ASP decline.Daishin Securities analyst Park Kang-ho pointed out that in the first half of the year, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix benefited from:Rising DRAM and NAND prices, which improved profitability.Expansion of HBM supply, a high-margin product.However, in Q3, IT demand remains sluggish, leading to concerns that the pace of DRAM price increases is slowing, which is weighing on investor sentiment.HBM Supply Expansion Becomes a Critical FactorWith growing concerns over Q3 earnings, analysts stress that Samsung Electronics must secure growth momentum through HBM expansion.An industry insider stated:“As DRAM prices begin to decline, expectations for Samsung, which has a higher exposure to legacy memory, have weakened.”“Expanding HBM supply will be a key turning point for a potential recovery in the second half.”[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Samsung Electronics

"Flagship Retail Stock" Samsung Electronics Sees Market Cap Share Plunge (Oct 6, 2024)

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Samsung Electronics

"Flagship Retail Stock" Samsung Electronics Sees Market Cap Share Plunge (Oct 6, 2024)

As Samsung Electronics' stock price continues its downward trend, its market capitalization share in the Korean stock market fell to a two-year low last month.According to the Korea Financial Investment Association on October 6, Samsung Electronics' common stock accounted for 18.61% of the total market capitalization on the KOSPI exchange in September. When preferred shares are included, its market cap share stood at 20.72%, marking the lowest level since October 2022.At that time, Samsung’s market cap share was 18.05% for common stock and 20.32% including preferred shares.The market capitalization share is calculated as the monthly average of the total market value of Samsung Electronics' stock relative to the total market value of all KOSPI-listed stocks, based on daily closing prices.Why Is Samsung's Market Cap Share Falling?The decline is attributed to Samsung's sluggish stock performance, driven by:The worst semiconductor downturn in history last year, followed by a slower-than-expected recovery compared to competitors.Losing market leadership in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to SK Hynix, despite HBM’s rapid growth in the AI sector.Delayed supply agreements with NVIDIA, a key AI chip customer.Due to these concerns, both domestic and global brokerage firms have been lowering their price targets for Samsung Electronics since September.Brokerage Firms Slash Samsung's Price TargetOn September 25, Macquarie Securities released a report stating that:Samsung's memory division is entering a down cycle, leading to deteriorating profitability.Oversupply in DRAM and NAND memory will put downward pressure on ASPs (average selling prices), negatively impacting demand and earnings.Target price cut from ₩125,000 → ₩64,000, with investment rating downgraded to "Neutral."Similarly, most domestic securities firms have also lowered their price targets below ₩100,000.Samsung's Continued Weak Stock Performance in OctoberSamsung Electronics' stock slump has persisted into October:On October 4, the stock closed at ₩60,600, down 1.14% from the previous session.Market capitalization stood at ₩361.77 trillion.On October 2, the stock hit an intraday low of ₩59,900, marking a new 52-week low.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Samsung Electronics

Samsung Electronics Investors Are Bleeding: 81% in Losses Over 3 Years (Oct 2, 2024)

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Samsung Electronics

Samsung Electronics Investors Are Bleeding: 81% in Losses Over 3 Years (Oct 2, 2024)

Over the past three years, 8 out of 10 investors who purchased Samsung Electronics shares have suffered losses. Many investors bought shares above ₩80,000 this year, but as domestic and international securities firms continue to slash their target prices, concerns are mounting.Key DevelopmentsSamsung Electronics Hits 52-Week LowOn October 2, Samsung Electronics closed at ₩61,300, down 0.33% from the previous trading day, marking a new 52-week low. During the day, the stock dipped to ₩59,900, falling below ₩60,000 for the first time since March 16, 2023—a 17-month low.81.59% of Investors Are in the RedAs the stock continues its downward trend, a staggering 81.59% of investors who bought Samsung Electronics shares in the past three years (Oct 1, 2021 – Oct 2, 2024) are now in negative territory, according to Koscom data. The largest concentration of purchases (43.29%) occurred in the ₩70,000–₩79,000 range, making these investors particularly vulnerable.For those who bought shares this year, the losses are even more severe. Among 2024 buyers:31.39% purchased at ₩75,000–₩79,90027.36% bought above ₩80,00028.51% acquired shares at ₩70,000–₩74,900Only 12.76% bought at ₩60,000–₩69,900This indicates that nearly 60% of this year’s buyers are deep underwater, as they expected a rebound to ₩100,000 ("Tenbagger Samsung").Why Is Sentiment Crumbling?Foreign Investors & Analysts Cut ExpectationsForeign investors and brokerage firms have downgraded their outlook, further dampening sentiment:Macquarie downgraded Samsung Electronics from "Buy" to "Neutral"Slashed its target price from ₩125,000 → ₩64,000 (a 49% cut)Cited oversupply in memory chips, declining ASPs (average selling prices), and weak demand from downstream industriesHighlighted delayed HBM shipments to NVIDIA, reducing AI-related growth potentialEstimated Samsung’s HBM revenue for 2026 at $13 billion—only 43% of SK Hynix’s projected $30 billionShinhan Investment Corp. lowered its target price from ₩110,000 → ₩95,000, citing:Weaker-than-expected smartphone demandSlowdown in legacy memory salesReduced Q3–Q4 operating profit estimates (from ₩10.2 trillion)However, Shinhan believes the stock is nearing its PBR (price-to-book ratio) bottom, reducing downside risk. Analyst Kim Hyung-tae noted that most of the bad news is priced in, suggesting a long-term buying opportunity as the memory supply-demand balance stabilizes in 2025.Retail Investors Are Betting on a BottomDespite the grim outlook, retail investors are aggressively buying the dip:In September alone, retail investors net bought ₩8.08 trillion ($6 billion) worth of Samsung shares.Many believe the worst is over and that Samsung is undervalued at current levels.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Samsung Electronics

Even a ₩12 Billion Buyback Can't Save ‘₩60,000 Samsung Electronics’ (Oct 2, 2024)

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Samsung Electronics

Even a ₩12 Billion Buyback Can't Save ‘₩60,000 Samsung Electronics’ (Oct 2, 2024)

Despite Samsung Electronics executives actively purchasing company shares, the stock price continues to struggle, with the critical ₩60,000 level under threat. While concerns over the semiconductor industry downturn have eased somewhat, downward revisions in third-quarter earnings forecasts have led securities firms to lower their target prices for Samsung Electronics.So far this year, 48 Samsung Electronics executives have purchased a total of 168,831 shares. However, given the company’s massive market capitalization, such insider buying is not substantial enough to significantly influence the stock price. That said, when executives with deep insight into the company’s operations buy shares, it can be interpreted as a positive signal, suggesting confidence in the stock’s potential for recovery. Despite this, the market reaction has been muted, and a similar trend is seen in major IT firms like Naver and Kakao, where top executives have also been purchasing shares in an attempt to prop up their struggling stock prices.Meanwhile, expectations for Samsung Electronics’ third-quarter earnings are being revised downward ahead of its preliminary earnings release in early October. According to financial data provider FnGuide, Korean securities firms now forecast Samsung’s consolidated revenue for Q3 at ₩81.45 trillion and operating profit at ₩11.23 trillion. These figures reflect a decline in expectations, fueling concerns that Samsung’s recovery may be slower than anticipated.Ultimately, while executive share purchases can be perceived as a positive signal, they have failed to restore investor confidence in the current environment. The fact that similar patterns are emerging in other IT giants like Naver and Kakao suggests broader structural challenges within Korea’s tech sector. With earnings forecasts continuing to decline, insider buying may not be enough to reassure the market and could even amplify investor skepticism. For Samsung Electronics to achieve a sustainable stock price recovery, the company must go beyond share buybacks and present tangible improvements in its financial performance and long-term growth strategy.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Samsung Electronics

General Mills sells North America yogurt operations in $2 billion deal to focus on stronger brands(Sep 12, 2024)

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GIS

General Mills

General Mills sells North America yogurt operations in $2 billion deal to focus on stronger brands(Sep 12, 2024)

General Mills will sell its North American yogurt business to French dairy firms Groupe Lactalis and Sodiaal in a $2.1 billion deal, the Cheerios maker said on Thursday.Lactalis will acquire the U.S. business and Sodiaal will buy the Canadian unit, the company said.Reuters reported in April that General Mills was working with investment bank JPMorgan Chase to attract interest from potential buyers for the business, which houses brands such as Yoplait and Liberté.Packaged food makers are divesting units not delivering high growth to keep a tight leash on costs while expanding their core brands as they respond to consumers seeking cheaper alternatives.The divestiture will help sharpen focus on key brands that have stronger margins, Chief Executive Officer Jeff Harmening said in a statement.Yoplait is facing tough competition in the U.S. from privately held yogurt brand Chobani, as well as Danone’s Dannon brand.The North American yogurt business contributed about $1.5 billion to General Mills’ fiscal 2024 net sales.The Golden Valley, Minnesota-based company expects the deals to close in 2025, and will dilute adjusted earnings per share by about 3% in the first 12 months after the close.Bloomberg News earlier on Thursday reported that General Mills was in talks to sell the North American yogurt operations to Groupe Lactalis and Sodiaal.Yoplait was started by a group of French dairy farmers in 1964. It partnered with General Mills in 1977 through a franchise agreement giving the maker of Bisquick pancake mix exclusive rights to market the brand in the U.S.Then in 2011, General Mills acquired a 51% stake worth $1.2 billion in Yoplait from private equity firm PAI Partners and French dairy cooperative Sodiaal, which retained the remaining stake.In 2021, General Mills sold the European operations of Yoplait to Sodiaal.

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General Mills

This health-care stock is set to complete another spin-off(Sep 8, 2023)

Neutral

DHR

Danaher

This health-care stock is set to complete another spin-off(Sep 8, 2023)

Medical equipment giant Danaher (DHR) will officially spin off its environmental-and-applied solutions segment later this month, and our plan is to remain invested in the soon-to-be standalone company, known as Veralto, which will trade under the ticker symbol VLTO. That expectation was reinforced Wednesday when Veralto management delivered a presentation for investors and Wall Street analysts. Veralto’s attractive characteristics include a history of steady revenue growth and cash generation, combined with the potential benefits typically afforded to spun-out companies – namely, a more focused management team that can invest as it sees fit, unencumbered by a larger corporate structure. Based on our current 520-share stake in Danaher, we’re set to receive 173 shares of Veralto on Sept. 30, the day the separation is officially completed. Our Danaher share count will not change post-spin, but Danaher’s stock price — currently trading around $255 a share — will adjust that day to reflect the departing value of Veralto. DHR YTD mountain Danaher’s stock performance year to date. What is Veralto? Veralto will consist of two primary divisions – water quality and product quality & innovation – which generated nearly $5 billion in combined sales in 2022 under the Danaher roof. The water quality unit contributed about 60% of that figure. Varelto’s various business areas may not have universal name recognition but they provide services and products used in everyday life. During Wednesday’s investor event, Veralto CEO Jennifer Honeycutt demonstrated how a water bottle is “the intersection of all of Veralto’s businesses” — from the water that needs to be treated and then undergo analytical testing, to the packaging and design of the bottle itself. Veralto is also an important player in municipal water supplies, including New York, the most-populous U.S. city. New York City has installed more than 50 custom-designed UV light systems – made by Veralto’s Trojan Technologies – to help disinfect up to 2 billion gallons of water each day, according to Melissa Aquino, senior vice president for the water quality unit. A financial overview Over the two decades ended in 2022, combined sales at Veralto’s businesses had a roughly 9.5% compound annual growth rate – going from about $800 million in 2002 to nearly $5 billion last year. Meanwhile, adjusted operating profit rose at an 11% compound annual growth rate, to $1.1 billion in 2022, compared with $140 million in 2002. On a core-revenue basis – which excludes the impact of currency fluctuations, as well as acquisitions and divestitures – both the water quality and product quality & innovation segments have delivered mid-single-digit growth over the long term, according to CFO Sameer Ralhan. The company’s overall core annual revenue growth rate of 4% over the past 10 years is above the 3% real U.S. GDP growth rate, on average, he said. Still, Ralhan said: “Our businesses have a tremendous track record of financial performance under Danaher’s ownership, and yet there are a number of opportunities to make these businesses even better and create tremendous value.” Veralto’s strategy to deliver those improvements will adhere to a modified version of the highly regarded Danaher Business System – which means not only running its own businesses more efficiently and growing margins, but also looking for strategic takeover targets As an independent entity, Veralto will have greater flexibility to use its cash to buy companies it deems attractive and embark on a value-creating strategy for those acquired entities — just as Danaher has consistently done. Bottom line We expect to stay invested in both Danaher and Veralto once the spin-off is completed and the tax-free share distribution occurs on Sept. 30. That’s a sentiment that’s been further strengthened by Danaher’s stock performance of late . As we noted when the transaction was first announced last year , Danaher has made smart, tax-advantaged divestitures in recent years – benefiting its remaining shareholders over the long term and, at least in the short term, shareholders in the spun-out entities. In July 2016, Danaher completed the separation of its industrial technologies and test-and-measurement businesses into a company called Fortive (FTV) – with DHR investors getting one share of Fortive for every two DHR shares they owned. In December 2019, Danaher finalized the separation of Envista (NVST), its collection of dental businesses. In that transaction, Danaher did a partial initial public offering of Envista stock in September 2019 , then later gave DHR investors the option to exchange some of their DHR shares for Envista stock. Investors can sometimes can be tempted to immediately sell their entitlements of a spun-off company as soon as they’re received. This makes sense to do if it’s a low-quality company with limited prospects for growth. But both Danaher’s recent spins resulted in investors seeing double-digit percentage gains in the new company after one year. Value was created by the separation of the businesses, and we think the same will happen again with Veralto. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long DHR. See here for a full list of the stocks.)

Neutral

DHR

Danaher

Newell expands its divestiture plan and said it plans to sell Waddington for $2.3 billion(May 4, 2018)

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NWL

Newell Brands

Newell expands its divestiture plan and said it plans to sell Waddington for $2.3 billion(May 4, 2018)

Newell Brands said on Friday it would sell its plastics packaging unit Waddington Group for $2.3 billion, and added more brands to a divestiture plan aimed at streamlining its operations and cutting costs.The sale of Waddington, which makes disposable cutlery and drinkware, is the first major divestiture after activist investors Starboard Value and Carl Icahn placed their nominees on the company’s board last month.Newell’s shares were up 6 percent at $28.29 in early trading. The stock took a beating after the company, which sells everything from Sharpie pens to Crock-Pot cookware, first laid out plans in January to explore options for several of its businesses.As part of its agreement with Icahn, Newell said in March its divestitures would bring in about $10 billion, ratcheting it up from its previous estimate of $6 billion.Newell said on Friday it would add Jostens and Pure Fishing to the list of brands it plans to sell, with the expanded divestiture plan ultimately reducing its net sales and workforce by more than a third.The moves come as the company’s retailer customers such as Walmart and Target pare back inventories to cut costs as fewer shoppers visit brick-and-mortar stores.“All of these assets should command competitive multiples ... the sale of Waddington validates that belief,” Chief Executive Officer Michael Polk said during a conference call.Newell said its divestiture process was “well underway” and expects to complete all transactions by the end of 2019 and become a company with net sales of about $9.5 billion in 2020.“Investors never wanted Newell to own Waddington and likely underestimated the multiple a sale could bring,” Renaissance Macro Securities analyst April Scee said.The company also reported first-quarter sales that fell nearly 8 percent and missed analysts’ estimates, mainly due to divestitures in 2017 and the liquidation of Toys ‘R’ Us.But normalized earnings of 34 cents per share beat the average estimate of 26 cents, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.“With continued organic weakness and conflict with Starboard ongoing, there’s enough noise in the stock ... However, intended divestitures improve focus or help odds of successful restructuring,” Scee said.The company also reaffirmed 2018 net sales and earnings forecast.

Sell

NWL

Newell Brands

T-Mobile, Sprint aim to announce merger without asset divestitures(Oct 16, 2017)

Neutral

TMUS

T Mobile US

T-Mobile, Sprint aim to announce merger without asset divestitures(Oct 16, 2017)

T-Mobile U.S. and Sprint plan to announce a merger agreement without any immediate asset sales, as they seek to preserve as much of their spectrum holdings and cost synergies as they can before regulators ask for concessions, according to people familiar with the matter.While it is common for companies not to unveil divestitures during merger announcements, T-Mobile’s and Sprint’s approach shows that the companies plan to enter what could be challenging negotiations with U.S. antitrust and telecommunications regulators without having made prior concessions.Reuters reported last week that some of the U.S. Justice Department’s antitrust staff were skeptical about the deal, which would combine the third and fourth largest U.S. wireless carriers. However, regulators can only begin reviewing a corporate merger once it has been agreed to and announced.T-Mobile and Sprint are preparing a negotiating strategy to tackle demands from regulators regarding asset sales, including the divestment of some of their spectrum licenses after their deal is announced, the sources said.The companies’ announcement of a merger agreement, currently expected to come either in late October or early November, will focus on the potential benefits of the deal for U.S. consumers, including the advancement of next-generation 5G wireless technology, which requires considerable investment, the sources added.The sources asked not to be identified because the deliberations are confidential. T-Mobile and Sprint declined to comment.“It is better for Sprint and T-Mobile to listen and learn the concerns of regulators first, and see whether there is anything that can be done to address those concerns,” MoffettNathanson research analyst Craig Moffett said.A combination of T-mobile and Sprint would create a business with more than 130 million U.S. subscribers, just behind Verizon Communications and AT&T.Companies often chose not to make any pre-emptive announcements on divestitures when they announce mergers. For example, when U.S. health insurers Anthem and Aetna separately announced deals two years ago to acquire peers Cigna and Humana, they did not reveal which assets they would be willing to divest. U.S. federal judges shot down both mergers on antitrust grounds earlier this year.Some media and telecommunications deals in recent years have been announced with divestitures, such as U.S. cable operator Comcast’s proposed takeover of Time Warner Cable in 2014, which was later called off after regulatory pushback. When U.S. TV station owner Sinclair Broadcast Group announced its acquisition of peer Tribune Media in May, it said it might sell certain stations to comply with regulators.Companies often also choose to place caps in their merger agreements on the size of divestitures they would be willing to accept in their negotiations with regulators. T-Mobile and Sprint have not yet agreed to include such a cap in their merger agreement, though it is possible they will do so, one of the sources said.

Neutral

TMUS

T Mobile US

Red Light for Risk Appetite(Feb 25, 2025)

Neutral

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Red Light for Risk Appetite(Feb 25, 2025)

I’ve been thinking a lot about if this could be the end…On the Morning Show today we talked about whether the bull market for stocks could continue if we lost Bitcoin.The answer is it definitely could. But, wouldn’t it be strange? Crypto and stocks have danced together for a long time.However, I think it’s less about crypto and more about the overall risk appetite of the market. Bitcoin is just one part of it. When I think about risk on corners of the market and the kind of things that should be working during a healthy bull cycle I’m thinking of homebuilders, semiconductors, and banks… to name a few groups. But I’m also looking into the relationships between groups. In particular, I’m analyzing the performance of offensive stocks versus defensive stocks. The best ratio for this has always been discretionary vs staples.XLY/XLP ranks second to none when it comes to the assessment of risk appetite.Are investors buying the risky consumer stocks and betting on growth?Or are they favoring the defensive ones and playing it safe?As a bull, you always want new highs in the stock market to be confirmed by the discretionary vs staples ratio. Right now, not only is XLY/XLP not supporting new highs, but it is flashing a dire warning sign.XLY/XLP just printed a nasty failed breakout and sold off to fresh multi-month lows. The ratio has now given back all of its post-election gains and violated its VWAP from the August low. The tactical trend has turned down, and the primary trend is in jeopardy. Momentum just hit its most oversold reading since the bear market lows in 2022. A valid breakdown in this relationship would mean further leadership from defensive stocks in the future. Over any sustained timeframe, this would constitute bear market behavior.I’m not saying it has to happen, but it’s where things are headed right now.And while the discretionary vs staples ratio is only one data point, it’s a pretty damn bearish one.

Neutral

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Dow closes down 260 points at session low as megacap tech stocks turn negative(May 18, 2021)

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Dow closes down 260 points at session low as megacap tech stocks turn negative(May 18, 2021)

Major U.S. stock indexes wiped out earlier gains and closed at their session lows on Tuesday as Big Tech stocks reversed lower, while data showing housing starts dropped sharply last month also weighed on sentiment.The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the session 267.13 points, or 0.8%, to 34,060.66. The S&P 500 fell 0.9% to 4,127.83. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite erased a 0.8% gain and slid 0.6% to 13,303.64 as Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet all rolled over and fell more than 1% on the dayHousing starts tumbled 9.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.569 million units last month, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday. Economists polled by Dow Jones had forecast starts falling to a rate of 1.7 million units in April.Investors also digested better-than-expected earnings from big retailers. Walmart shares jumped more than 2% after reporting strong grocery sales and e-commerce growth for the quarter. Macy’s posted a surprise profit and hiked its full-year outlook, but its shares erased earlier gains and dipped 0.4%.Home Depot reported earnings of $3.86 a share for the previous quarter, much higher than the $3.08 expected by analysts polled by Refinitiv. Net sales surged 32.7%, more than expected. The stock ended the session 1% lower.Growth-heavy stocks have remained under pressure in recent sessions as investors fret over whether a pop in inflation will entrench or blow over as the Federal Reserve expects. Inflation above the Fed’s 2% target for a sustained period could prompt the central bank to tighten monetary policy and dampen stocks that outperform the market when interest rates are low.″Growth may be peaking, but it’s not a bull-market breaker yet,” said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments. “Data can’t stay at peak levels forever, and tailwinds from fiscal stimulus are likely to wind down. This can complicate the environment for investors; history suggests that when the economy starts to slow, market returns tend to slow with it.”Investors blamed that angst for the S&P 500′s dismal performance last week, which saw the broad market index fall 4% through midweek amid heightened inflation fears. The broad equity benchmark eventually rebounded and ended the week down 1.4%. All three benchmarks posted their worst week since February 26.The Fed’s minutes from its last meeting, which will be released Wednesday, could offer some clues on policymakers’ thinking on inflation.Elsewhere, the first-quarter earnings season is wrapping up with more than 90% of the S&P 500 companies having reported their results. So far, 86% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise, which would mark the highest percentage of positive earnings surprises since 2008 when FactSet began tracking this metric.

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

It looks like Santa Claus is on his way to stock investors in the week ahead(Dec 26, 2021)

Sell

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

It looks like Santa Claus is on his way to stock investors in the week ahead(Dec 26, 2021)

After a period of turbulence, the decks may be cleared for a good old-fashioned Santa Claus rally in the week ahead.Stocks were higher in the past week, after a rough stretch that continued into Monday. The S&P 500 recovered and is up about 3.5% for December as of Thursday.“I think all the things we’ve been concerned about for the month of December to a certain extent, are in the rearview mirror,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities. “We know what the [Federal Reserve] is going to do. We know while this new variant spreads faster, it’s not as dangerous, and we know Build Back Better legislation is now 2022′s business... I think the market can find a path of least resistance to the upside as we wrap things up.”The market has a lot of history on its side that trading days before the year-end are positive for stocks. According to the “Stock Trader’s Almanac,” the Santa Claus rally period — the final five trading days of the current year and first two of the new year — is mostly a time when the stock market gains. The S&P 500 has been positive nearly 79% of the time on those days since 1928 and has gained an average of about 1.7% per rally.Add to that the fact that when the market has had a strong year, the momentum historically has carried into the final trading sessions. In that regard, the S&P 500 is up about 25% for the year.According to Bank of America, when the S&P 500 has already seen such solid gains, the final six sessions are positive. Since 1980, there have been 10 instances where the S&P 500 was up 20% or more going into the last stretch of trading and in nine of those years, it ended the final six days higher.A notably rocky DecemberStocks head into the final sessions of the year with a tailwind, after several weeks of choppiness.“This has been the fourth rockiest December since 1987. The average daily move for the S&P 500 has been 1.1%,” said Hogan. “That’s a lot of action.” The most volatile Decembers were in 2000, 2008 and 2018.Hogan said volume in the last week of the year is typically 20% to 30% lower than normal. “In a low-volume environment, when the market picks a direction, it tends to move in that direction in a robust fashion,” he said.Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group, said positive news on the Covid omicron variant this week was the catalyst that reversed the market’s sell-off. There were studies showing omicron to be milder than other variants of the coronavirus. Further, the Food and Drug Administration approved pills from Pfizer and Merck for the treatment of Covid-19.“Whereas the market was focusing on everything that could go wrong since Thanksgiving, people are now just taking a sunnier view,” Hickey said. He expects that view will likely prevail in the coming week.“As we get toward the beginning of January, we’ll see how markets are positioning themselves,” Hickey said. He said investors will start to turn their attention toward the upcoming earnings season; they do not seem to be overly optimistic, which could spell some upside surprises.“Going into the last earnings season, there was a ton of negative sentiment based on supply chains, inflation and labor shortages. We ended up having a decent earnings season. It’s more mixed this time,” Hickey said.High-growth stocks hitThe selling in November and December dented stocks. Some high-growth stocks and ETFs were down sharply as investors moved into safety plays. Funds that took their lumps in December include the Ark Innovation ETF and iShares Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF.“I think some of these growth areas that have gotten hit hard will do a little better. They could see a bounce early in the year,” Hickey said. “They sold off for a number of reasons. One was concerns over the Fed. Also people had made so much money, and the feeling was taxes are going up. People were selling stocks ahead of higher taxes. That’s more of a question now with a divided Congress.”

Sell

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

Netflix’s world has been turned upside down as stock plunges 35%(Apr 20, 2022)

Strong Sell

NFLX

Netflix

Netflix’s world has been turned upside down as stock plunges 35%(Apr 20, 2022)

Call Eleven and Sheriff Hopper of “Stranger Things,” because Netflix’s world has been turned upside down.The company reported Tuesday that it lost subscribers for the first time in more than a decade. The news shocked Wall Street and sent shares plummeting 35% Wednesday morning, wiping out $50 billion in market cap. And this was after the company’s stock had dropped more than 40% year to date.Simply put, Netflix’s terrible 2022 has now become disastrous.Once bullish experts and analysts who viewed Netflix as the linchpin of a transforming entertainment industry are now concerned about its growth going forward. And they’re wondering what the future of the company — and all of streaming — might look like.“What worked until this point may not be working anymore,” Michael Nathanson, a media analyst at MoffettNathanson, told CNN Business. “The world’s changed.”The question for Netflix (NFLX) — once the untouchable king of streaming — has gone from “what’s next?” to “what now?”“How do they turn the ship around?”Netflix said Tuesday that it lost 200,000 subscribers in the first quarter of 2022. Now, 200,000 out of 221 million global subscriptions may seem like little more than a rounding error, but consider that the service was expected to add 2.5 million new users in the first three months of the year — a low bar that had already spooked investors in January.As if that wasn’t bad enough, Netflix said it expects to lose another 2 million in the current quarter.The company blames many factors for its subscriber exodus, including competition and widespread password sharing. In its letter to investors Tuesday, Netflix also pointed fingers at “macro factors” that are affecting many companies right now, such as “sluggish economic growth, increasing inflation, geopolitical events such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and some continued disruption from Covid.”Pulling out of Russia alone cost the company 700,000 subscribers, Netflix said. But even without that, the company still would’ve missed its own expectations by nearly 2 million.Zak Shaikh, vice president of programming at research-based media firm Magid, believes Netflix needs to answer two questions to change its current narrative: “How do they turn the ship around and start increasing subs again, and how do they generate more revenue per sub?”“I think it comes down — as it often does — to content,” Shaikh told CNN Business. “Netflix just has to remember what made it so special was that it had the type of content and volume of content you couldn’t get anywhere else. That’s the value proposition they need to return to.”But it’s not as easy as flipping a switch, no matter how many billions Netflix spends on courting big talent and funding spectacular productions. If making great content was easy, everyone would be doing it.“Spending more doesn’t equal hits,” Nathanson said. “Everyone’s spending more.”Another way Netflix could boost revenue: clamping down on password sharing.The company alluded to that Tuesday, saying it will focus more on “how best to monetize sharing” in terms of passwords. And last month Netflix said that over the last year, it’s been working on ways to “enable members who share outside their household to do so easily and securely, while also paying a bit more.”“While we won’t be able to monetize all of it right now, we believe it’s a large short- to mid-term opportunity,” the company said Tuesday.But making customers pay for the privilege of sharing their passwords could actually have a “negative impact” for the company, according to Nathanson. Netflix already raised prices earlier this year, and any additional costs could alienate its base, which is already strapped for cash because of the economy and a surplus of streaming options.“Is there going to be a spin down to cheaper plans and/or will the goodwill that Netflix has generated just go away?” Nathanson said.Stranger things are happeningAnother area that could help Netflix: advertising. CEO Reed Hastings has historically been strongly averse to adding commercials to the service. Not anymore.“Think of us as quite open to offering even lower prices with advertising,” Hastings said during Tuesday’s post-earnings call.Adding a cheaper advertising tier is already happening across the streaming marketplace. Disney, Hulu and HBO Max, which is owned by CNN’s parent company Warner Bros. Discovery, already offer such options.It makes sense for Netflix to eventually join them, Shaikh said.“We know that consumers don’t have a problem with advertising as long as it is cheaper and that there is a no-commercial option, too,” he said. “That said, with advertising comes certain content restrictions, and that’s something they may want to avoid. Ultimately, they need to ensure they have the content that consumers want, and then ensure they are monetizing that in the best way possible.”Netflix getting its groove back is not just important to the company and its investors, but also for all of streaming.The platform is synonymous with the industry, so if Netflix is struggling, that raises questions about streaming as a solid business model.On Wednesday morning shares for companies that have built much of their businesses around streaming, such as Disney, Roku (ROKU), Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount, were all down alongside Netflix.Netflix said Tuesday that it will continue to improve the service. And it remains at the top of a marketplace that is changing how people consume entertainment, so it still has that going for it.“This is just the reality check that is inevitable for an industry leader facing multiple new entrants to the marketplace,” Shaikh said.

Strong Sell

NFLX

Netflix

Target just went from great to bad to ugly. But the worst may be over(Aug 20, 2022)

Neutral

TGT

Target

Target just went from great to bad to ugly. But the worst may be over(Aug 20, 2022)

Target just demonstrated how quickly things can change in the world of retail, posting a terrible quarter after nearly two years of soaring profits and record revenue growth. But the big box retailer is promising things will change in the other direction just as fast.Target was widely seen as one of the winners of the pandemic, gaining new customers as shoppers not wanting to go into brick-and-mortar stores were drawn to its growing curbside pickup and home delivery.But after a disappointing fiscal first quarter when profits fell 40%, Target just had an even worse second quarter. Profits plunged 90% compared to a year earlier.Inflation-weary shoppers shifted to buying essentials such as food and gas rather than “nonessential” general merchandise that is central to Target’s sales and profits. It was a stark contrast to larger rival Walmart (WMT), which posted only a narrow drop in profits for the quarter.But many analysts believe Target is still in good position going forward, that it’s not at risk of joining some of the other pandemic winners who are now struggling, like online retailer Wayfair (W). Friday it announced it had to cut 5% of the staff due to expanding too fast during the good times.Target’s profit plunge came from the deep discounts it had to offer on much of its general merchandise, such as clothing, electronics and home goods. The hit to earnings from such deep discounting was unavoidable. But company executives insist it was the right choice.“Consider the alternative: we could have held on to excess inventory and attempted to deal with it slowly, over multiple quarters or even years. While that might have reduced the near-term financial impact, it would have held back our business over time,” said CEO Brian Cornell to investors. “The vast majority of the financial impact of these inventory actions is now behind us.” He predicts a meaningful improvement in operating margin rates in the fall season.Many analysts agree that Target did the right thing taking the hit. Several say the sudden shift in consumer buying habits was not the fault of miscalculation by management.“All last year the supply chain was very, very tight. Stores were out of stock of many items. They were ordering for a level of demand that was very reasonable,” said Bobby Griffin, retail analyst at Raymond James. “Then there was a very fast change in consumer behavior.”Discretionary purchases being made by consumers shifted away from goods to things like travel, Griffin said.Other experts say that Target management wasn’t quite blameless for being caught with too much of the wrong inventory.“My sense is that this [problem at Target] was 70% about consumer behavior and 30% miscalculation related to inventory,” said Eric Schiffer, chief investment officer of Los Angeles-based private equity firm, The Patriarch Organization.There is some hope for all retailers that they could benefit from the large, steady decline in gas prices over the last two months.The national average price of gasoline has dropped $1.11, or 22% to $3.91 since hitting a record of $5.02 on June 14. It has fallen every day since. That should save households $100 a month on average. And wholesale gasoline futures point to even lower gas prices ahead in the coming weeks and months.Target was always going to have more problems with a sudden shift in consumer spending than Walmart. Walmart has more than half of its sales from grocery while Target is closer to 20% said Owen Chen, retail analyst at Cowen. Walmart also had to offer sales on its nonessential general merchandise in the quarter.And Walmart has always competed more on low prices, an advantage at a time that even middle and higher income shoppers are concerned about higher prices. Walmart executives reported it saw more business from those upper income households in the most recent quarter, a statement that cheered its investors.But Chen said the numbers indicate that they did not get those higher income shoppers from Target’s traditional customers.“I think that Target’s [store] traffic numbers show it did a good job holding onto their customers,” he said. The number of customers making purchases at Target was up 2.7% compared to a year ago in the just-completed quarter. And that’s more than a 20% increase since the same period of 2019, ahead of the pandemic.Target shares have underperformed some of its rivals, falling 28% so far this year, compared to only a 5% decline at Walmart. Schiffer said he wouldn’t be surprised to see the slide in Target shares continue, as he believes they are overvalued by as much as 30%. But he doesn’t think that means Target is badly positioned for the future.“I would stay the course,” he said. “The pace of growth during the pandemic was never going to be sustainable. They’ll still grow, just not as fast.”

Neutral

TGT

Target

Market Is Punishing Negative EPS Surprises More Than Average for Q2(Aug 12, 2024)

Neutral

Market Is Punishing Negative EPS Surprises More Than Average for Q2(Aug 12, 2024)

To date, 91% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings for the second quarter. Of these companies, 78% have reported actual EPS above the mean EPS estimate, which is above the 5-year average of 77% and above the 10-year average of 74%. In aggregate, earnings have exceeded estimates by 3.5%, which is below the 5-year average of 8.6% and below the 10-year average of 6.8%. Given this mixed performance relative to the averages, how has the market responded to EPS surprises reported by S&P 500 companies during the Q2 earnings season?To date, the market is rewarding positive earnings surprises reported by S&P 500 companies less than average and punishing negative earnings surprises reported by S&P 500 companies more than average.Companies that have reported positive earnings surprises for Q2 2024 have seen an average price increase of 0.8% two days before the earnings release through two days after the earnings release. This percentage increase is below the 5-year average price increase of 1.0% during this same window for companies reporting positive earnings surprises.One example of a company that reported a positive EPS surprise in Q2 and witnessed a decline in stock price is Amazon.com. On August 1, the company reported actual (GAAP) EPS of $1.26 for Q2, which was above the mean (GAAP) EPS estimate of $1.03. However, from July 30 to August 5, the stock price for Amazon.com decreased by 11.4% (to $161.02 from $181.71).Companies that have reported negative earnings surprises for Q2 2024 have seen an average price decrease of 3.8% two days before the earnings release through two days after the earnings release. This percentage decrease is larger than the 5-year average price decrease of 2.3% during this same window for companies reporting negative earnings surprises.One example of a company that reported a negative EPS surprise in Q2 and witnessed a significant decline in stock price is Ford Motor. On July 24, the company reported actual (non-GAAP) EPS of $0.47 for Q2, which was below the mean (non-GAAP) EPS estimate of $0.64. From July 22 to July 26, the stock price for Ford Motor decreased by 20.8% (to $11.19 from $14.12).What is driving the market’s below-average reaction to both positive and negative EPS surprises for Q2? It is likely not due to earnings guidance from companies or estimate revisions by analysts for the third quarter.In terms of EPS guidance, the percentage of S&P 500 companies issuing negative EPS guidance for Q3 is below average. At this point in time, 86 companies in the index have issued EPS guidance for Q3 2024. Of these 86 companies, 47 have issued negative EPS guidance and 39 have issued positive EPS guidance. The percentage of companies issuing negative EPS guidance for Q3 2024 is 55% (47 out of 86), which is below the 5-year average of 59% and below the 10-year average of 63%.In terms of revisions to EPS estimates for S&P 500 companies, analysts lowered EPS estimates for Q3 2024 at average levels during the month of July. The Q3 bottom-up EPS estimate (which is an aggregation of the median EPS estimates for Q3 for all the companies in the index) decreased by 1.8% (to $62.08 from $63.20) from June 30 to July 31. This decline was equal to the 5-year average, the 10-year average, and the 20-year average for the first month of a quarter. For more details, please see this article: Are Analysts Cutting EPS Estimates More Than Average for S&P 500 Companies for Q3?

Neutral

How to Play the Tesla Stock Price Today Following Earnings(Aug 5, 2015)

Sell

TSLA

Tesla

How to Play the Tesla Stock Price Today Following Earnings(Aug 5, 2015)

The Tesla stock price today is down 9% in after-hours trading even after the company reported a Q3 earnings beat.Tesla Motors Inc. (Nasdaq: TSLA) reported a Q3 earnings per share (EPS) loss of $0.48, which comfortably beat the consensus projection of a $0.60 loss. Despite the beat, investors were spooked by the quarterly loss.Revenue for the quarter was $1.2 billion. That beat estimates of $1.17 billion and was a 40% increase from last year.Tesla also reported its highest production and delivery totals in the company's history. In Q2, 11,532 vehicles were delivered while 12,807 were produced. Looking ahead, the company expects to produce and deliver over 12,000 vehicles in Q3 despite the fact that its main facility will be closed for one week.How to collect up to $5,000 per month tax-free [Sponsored by Retirement Watch]The company also said that deliveries for the Model X SUV will begin in September. This is a huge step for the company, which is solely producing Model S sedans right now. Company officials have already said the vehicle will have a 90-kilowatt-hour battery and falcon-wing door.CEO Elon Musk expects production and demand between 1,600 and 1,800 vehicles per week for both the Model S and Model X in 2016.Despite many of these optimistic earnings numbers and sales figures, the Tesla stock price today is falling.Here's how we recommend playing TSLA stock now after earnings...How to Play the Tesla Stock Price TodayRetirement in a box: From zero to $2,500 a month [Sponsored by Retirement Watch]We routinely tell Money Morning readers that TSLA stock is not a perfect fit for every investor. It is not a buy for risk-averse investors.The Tesla stock price is volatile and frequently sees wide price swings. Today's 9% drop after hours is the perfect example. The company beat on both earnings and revenue, yet the stock is still down dramatically.But for investors who can buy and hold the stock for several years, the long-term potential is undeniable."I believe Tesla is one of the best long-term investments an investor can make at the moment," Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald said. "If there is ever a case to buy a few shares and tuck them away, this is it."One reason we're bullish is Tesla's home battery system.Earlier this year, Tesla announced a new line of home units built using the same lithium-ion batteries used in Tesla cars. Different models store either 7 kWh or 10 kWh of solar power. It's a major shift for Tesla, making it more than just a car company."I think Musk is the most innovative CEO on the planet and that he sees value others don't yet recognize," Fitz-Gerald said. "Cars, batteries, innovative business models - nobody knows where it will go but ultimately if you're along for the ride, I think it'd be very hard to go wrong over time."Money Morning Global Energy Strategist Dr. Kent Moors has spoken of the home battery's importance since early 2015.This new currency is making some Texans rich [Sponsored by Stansberry Research]"In everyday use, the unit is expected to allow homeowners to store solar-generated power for use during high-cost periods, giving them the flexibility to use the conventional grid for cheaper, off-peak electricity," Moors said in February.Another reason to be bullish is Tesla's new Gigafactory.Currently under construction in Nevada, the Gigafactory will be the world's largest lithium-ion battery plant upon completion.The factory is expected to take a total of $5 billion to complete. By the time it reaches full production in 2020, it should produce enough batteries to power 500,000 vehicles annually."The Gigafactory is expected to have a dramatic effect on the energy storage market, helping to bring battery costs down by as much as half by 2020," Moors said.The Bottom Line: Tesla beat on earnings and revenue in Q2, but the Tesla stock price today is still down 9% in after-hours trading. Tesla stock is always volatile when news is released, and today is the perfect example. For long-term investors, today's dip is an excellent buying opportunity. This stock has plenty of long-term potential and is great for investors who can take on some short-term risk.

Sell

TSLA

Tesla

After dismal 2014, Samsung Elec charts recovery with new Galaxy phones(Apr 3, 2015)

Sell

005930

Samsung Electronics

After dismal 2014, Samsung Elec charts recovery with new Galaxy phones(Apr 3, 2015)

Tech giant Samsung Electronics Co Ltd <005930.KS> likely saw January-March earnings slip for the sixth straight quarter, but investors are betting on a rebound this year on healthy chip sales and high hopes for its new flagship smartphones. Shares in South Korea-based Samsung hit a more-than 21 month high in mid-March as brokerages raised profit forecasts and target prices on its improving business outlook. The stock rose 8.6 percent in January-March following a 12.1 percent gain in the previous period. Investors believe the Galaxy S6 and its curved-edges variant will sell briskly when they roll out this month following positive reviews, and analysts say new mid-tier phones will boost sales, adding to expectations that the earnings slide in its handset business is ending. The recovery is also expected to be backed by strong semiconductor sales. In addition to healthy memory chip demand, Samsung's system chips business is seen returning to profit this year. Its home-grown Exynos processor will power the new Galaxy phones, and Samsung recently added Nvidia Corp as a contract manufacturing client. "This is a year of recovery for Samsung," said fund manager Park Sung-jae at LS Asset Management, which holds Samsung shares. "The stock price reflects that sentiment." To be sure, recovery is expected to be gradual and well shy of record profits in 2013. The median forecast from a Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S survey of 41 analysts tips first-quarter operating profit at 5.3 trillion won ($4.82 billion), down 38 percent from 8.5 trillion won a year earlier as mobile earnings weakened. The company will release its first-quarter earnings guidance on Tuesday. But analysts say the underlying figures should show meaningful improvements, with momentum to pick up further once the Galaxy S6 and S6 edge roll out globally. BNP Paribas analyst Peter Yu expects Samsung to ship 44 million of the new phones this year, compared with an estimated 38 million units of the disappointing Galaxy S5 last year. For the whole year, a Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S survey of 51 analysts expects profits to rise to 26.5 trillion won from 25 trillion won in 2014 - a reversal from the prevailing consensus early this year for another earnings slide. "We believe Samsung's smartphone operations are in a full recovery phase," Yu said in a note to clients last week, adding that there was an earnings upside of up to $1.5 billion to his 2015 profit forecast of 28.1 trillion won because of the new flagship devices. (Editing by Tony Munroe and Stephen Coates)

Sell

005930

Samsung Electronics

Hewlett-Packard Q1 Revenue Falls Short, Currency Woes Hammer Outlook(Feb 25, 2015)

Strong Sell

HPE

Hewlett Packard Enterprise

Hewlett-Packard Q1 Revenue Falls Short, Currency Woes Hammer Outlook(Feb 25, 2015)

Shares of computing and IT services giant Hewlett-Packard fell by more than 7 percent in after-hours trading after the company lowered its outlook for the coming year.HP posted earnings per share of 92 cents, up 2 percent year-on-year, on revenue of $26.8 billion, which fell 5 percent year-on-year. In a statement, HP said it is experiencing a “significant impact” from the effect of currency exchange rates.Earnings were better than the consensus view of analysts polled by Thomson Reuters: They had called for HP to post per-share earnings of 91 cents. But revenue fell short of the $27.4 billion consensus by about $600 million.HP also said it expects to earn between 84 and 88 cents a share in the second quarter, well below the consensus view. For the year it said it expects to earn between $3.53 and $3.73 per share, where analysts had expected $3.95 per share. It explained much of the lowered expectations on the effect of currencies.HP does about two thirds of its business outside the U.S. That means that when the U.S. dollar is strong relative to other currencies like the Japanese Yen and the Euro, it loses out when it converts those payments into dollars. Typically HP uses hedging strategies to offset the swings in currencies, but sometimes those hedges aren’t enough to make up the difference.HP said it expects the headwinds from currency exchanges to impact revenues by as much as 6 percent in 2015, versus the 2 percent impact it expected at the end of last year. A currency effect of that size would amount to about $3.3 billion in revenue, $1.5 billion in operating profit, about 60 cents in earnings per share. Roughly half of that impact — about 30 cents — to EPS can be managed by adjusting the price on products and other actions, but it will have to take the remaining 30 cents on the chin and thus lowered its profit forecast for the year.In a statement, CEO Meg Whitman laid much of the blame for weak results on the currency effects. “While we were able to manage the impact of currency in the quarter and delivery earnings as expected, we believe the impact on FY15 will be significantly greater than we anticipated in November.” Whitman said that HP will seek to offset the currency impacts by “re-pricing and productivity,” but said more radical action to more fully account for the currency swing would require “reducing investments and mortgaging our future…”We won’t do that.”In its lines of business HP showed some signs of strength in a few places where most businesses showed declines. Personal systems, HPs, personal computing unit, posted flat sales of $8.5 billion, led by notebook sales that grew by 9 percent year-on-year. Sales of consumer PCs rose 2 percent. PC sales to businesses fell slightly.In printing, once HP’s crown jewel, sales fell 5 percent to $5.5 billion. Sales of printers to businesses were flat, while consumer hardware sales fell 6 percent. Supplies revenue also declined by 5 percent. On a conference call CFO Cathie Lesjak says the weakness in the Japanese Yen helps HP when it buys components from Japanese companies, but makes it harder to compete with Japanese printer companies like Toshiba on selling prices.Revenue in the Enterprise Group was flat year-on-year at $7 billion. Server sales rose 7 percent, and sales of storage hardware were also flat. Networking sales declined 9 percent. On the conference call Whitman called out the networking results “disappointing.”The long-troubled Enterprise Services unit saw another decline of 11 percent year-on-year to $5 billion. Software sales fell 5 percent. Customers of that business have been leaving HP, but, Whitman said that its level of profit is in line with expectations. She also called today announcement of a deal with Deutsche Bank, which called “a hard fought win.” On the conference call Lesjak said the services unit has won another significant deal that hasn’t yet been announced.HP exited the quarter with $13.3 billion in combined cash and short-term investments. It spent $1.6 billion buying back shares and $304 million on dividend payments.HP announced last fall that it will break into two companies. One will be called HP Inc. and will be made up of its PC and printing business units. The other will be called Hewlett-Packard Enterprise and will comprise its corporate IT hardware, networking and services business units.Lesjak said that HP expects to take a $1.3 billion charge in 2015 related to the separation and another $500 million fiscal 2016.

Strong Sell

HPE

Hewlett Packard Enterprise

The Flawed Fed Valuation Model(Feb 5, 2008)

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

The Flawed Fed Valuation Model(Feb 5, 2008)

There are lots of things that investors believe which I find perplexing. The Superbowl indicator is one, but the oddest to me is the so-called Fed Model, also known as the IBES Valuation Model.It is not that the Fed model is so terribly wrong — it has been both right and wrong over the years. Rather, it is the way too many people conceptualize it.First, the definition of the Fed Model: Yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bonds should be similar to the S&P 500 earnings yield (forward earnings divided by the S&P price). This, in theory, should inform you of when equities are over-priced or under-priced.Note that the formula contains two variables: While it is commonly described as a way to evaluate when stocks are over- or under-valued, the other variable in the formula above is the forward S&P500 earnings consensus. SPX prices and the 10 year yield are the knowns, while BOTH valuation and forward earnings estimates are the unknowns.Thus, the Fed model today might be telling you either of two things: When equities are undervalued — or when consensus earning estimates are simply too high.Let’s see how that looks on a chart:Looking at the chart above, we can identify some rather odd periods. The model had stocks extremely undervalued in 1979 — just before a major 30% selloff. In 1981, stocks were fairly valued on the eve of the greatest bull market in history. From 1982-85, stocks bounced between slightly overvalued to undervalued, according to the model. In 1987, a very timely crash warning. 1998, an extremely early crash warning, missing a huge 2 year run in the indices. In 2001, it had stocks as undervalued — and they proceeded to get a whole lot cheaper over the next 2 years. Equities have been extremely undervalued ever since.Now, given that rather inconsistent track record, I find it hard to get too excited about this. But the most damning evidence against the Fed model is the period prior to 1960s. Over that entire, the Fed model had no utility whatsoever. “Out of sample” testing — looking at a different set of data than the one proffered — is quite damning to the Fed model.Which brings us back to today. We continue to see the Fed model used to rationalize a bullish stance in equities. However, given that it is based in large part on analysts consensus for future SPX earnings, investors need to be extremely cautious relying solely on the Fed model. Why? Analysts are unflaggingly inaccurate at turning points. Example: Q3 S&P500 earnings consensus were +8% — S&P500 earnings came in at -8%. Q4 has been similarly lowered, undercutting the earlier forecasts of undervaluation.Now let’s look at 2008. S&P 500 forward earnings over the next 4 quarters are as follows: Q1 = 3%; Q2 = 4%; Q3 = 20%; Q4 = 50%, according to UBS.So stocks, so we are confronted with two possibilities. Perhaps, equities are seriously undervalued (that assumes earnings explode in 2H). An alternative explanation, and one I suspect is more likely: Analysts consensus earnings are wildly exuberant for the second half.One last issue: Let’s ignore the analysts, and merely consider mean reversion: As the chart below shows, earnings have been unusually high relative to history. If they merely mean revert, they will come down another 25%. Even worse, most mean reversion blows right past historical averages to opposite extremes.

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

If you think stocks are expensive, you have no idea...(Jun 13, 2015)

Sell

If you think stocks are expensive, you have no idea...(Jun 13, 2015)

Relative to the earnings generated by their underlying companies, stocks are looking pretty expensive.We're talking about the price-to-earnings, or P/E, ratio."The current 12-month forward P/E ratio is 16.8," FactSet's John Butters said on Friday. "This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average (13.8) and the 10-year average (14.1)."But just because stocks are expensive relative to their long-term average is no guarantee that prices are doomed to fall immediately. Indeed, there are many instances in history when stock prices continued to rise and valuations continued to stretch for years before they corrected and reverted to the mean."Market multiples rarely trade at average levels," Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker once said.Citi's Stephen Antczak examined the trajectory of the forward P/E ratio in the current and previous three cycles."The 'recovery' part of the last three business cycles has averaged 7.9 years (trough to peak)," Antczak said. "How far might we be from the peak of the current cycle? A sample of various markets suggest that we are 72% of the way through."The S&P 500 is currently trading right around 2,100. But it would have to surge another 1,000 points for this P/E cycle to be "average."Now, many folks would point out that the last two cycles were full-blown bubbles. But, that doesn't mean it won't happen again.

Sell

FedEx earnings: EPS guidance and conference call to overshadow Q4 results(Jun 25, 2019 )

Sell

FDX

Fedex

FedEx earnings: EPS guidance and conference call to overshadow Q4 results(Jun 25, 2019 )

FedEx Corp. is scheduled to report fiscal fourth-quarter results on Tuesday after the closing bell, but what the package delivery giant says about the future will be of much more interest to Wall Street than what it says about the past three months.Investors have good reason to be worried about what’s coming for them in FedEx’s report.Most analysts remain bullish on FedEx over the longer term, but they have become less so in recent months. Earnings and revenue estimates and stock price targets have been slashed on concerns over a slowdown in the global economy, particularly in China and Europe.Those concerns are being exacerbated by the Trump administration’s contentious trade policy. FedEx has indicated that changes in U.S. policy have resulted in several governments, including China, the European Union and India, imposing retaliatory tariffs, which may reduce demand and hurt global trade and economic activity.And although some analysts believe FedEx’s decision announced on June 7 to end its Express unit’s domestic contract with Amazon.com Inc. could help improve margins, as it allows the company to add higher-margin business-to-business customers, the need to do so is a little worrisome. Especially since FedEx’s declaration on June 10 of a quarterly dividend that was unchanged from a year ago, effectively snapped a 10-year streak of rising dividends.Analyst Patrick Brown at Raymond James said the non-raise “could prove a telling sign,” given mounting macro uncertainty, sluggish volume trends and FedEx’s need to refresh its aircraft fleet and make ongoing e-commerce investments.Brown kept his rating on FedEx at outperform, but lowered his stock price target to $200 from $215, cut his adjusted earnings-per-share estimate for fiscal 2020 to $15.50 from $17.10 and lowered his revenue forecast to $70.76 billion from $72.77 billion.Among other investor concerns, The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the matter, that FedEx was offering big discounts as it tries to get online merchants to switch over from rival United Parcel Service Inc. And late Monday, FedEx filed suit against the U.S. Department of Commerce, saying the Export Administration Regulations (EAR) against FedEx violates common carriers’ rights, as it holds FedEx liable for shipments that violate the EAR without requiring evidence that FedEx had any knowledge of violations.“FedEx is a transportation company, not a law enforcement agency,” the company said in a statement.But perhaps the biggest reason for investors to worry is FedEx’s recent history of disappointing earnings reports. The stock has declined on the day after results were reported the past five quarters, by an average of 5.0% (median of 3.5%). Those disappointments have come despite earnings beats in three of the five quarters and revenue beats in four.J.P. Morgan analyst Brian Ossenbeck suggested that as much as the latest quarter’s results, his key questions regarding the report will include 2020 earnings guidance and management comments on the “much anticipated” post-earnings conference call. He cut his stock price target to $184 from $202 and his 2020 adjusted EPS estimate to $15.32 from $16.79.“Our lowered estimates and target price join the cavalcade of sell-side cuts over the last month that attempt to capture fundamental weakness and a string of strategic decisions within Express and Ground,” Ossenbeck wrote in a note to clients.Don’t miss: FedEx just fired off a warnings investors may not be able to ignore.Here’s what to expect:Earnings: The average analyst EPS estimate for the quarter ended May, as compiled by FactSet, is $4.85, which is down from $5.91 in the same period a year ago. The FactSet consensus has declined steadily this year, from $4.93 at the end of March and $5.32 at the end of December.For fiscal 2020, the FactSet EPS consensus is $16.23. That’s down from $16.82 at the end of March and $17.99 at the end of 2018.Estimize, a crowdsourcing platform that gathers estimates from buy-side analysts, hedge-fund managers, company executives, academics and others, as well as from Wall Street analysts, has a fourth-quarter consensus EPS estimate of $4.85.Revenue: The FactSet revenue consensus is $17.80 billion, up from $17.30 billion a year ago. That includes a $9.46 billion consensus for FedEx Express, a $5.20 billion consensus for FedEx Ground and a $2.01 billion estimate for FedEx Freight.Estimize is projecting revenue of $17.91 billion.For 2020, the FactSet consensus is for revenue of $72.13 billion.Stock price: FedEx’s stock has lost 8.8% over the past three months, and 33.1% the past 12 months. That makes it the worst performing stock in the Dow Jones Transportation Average over the past year.In comparison, shares of rival UPS have lost 11.2% the past 12 months, while the Dow transports have eased 3.8% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 9.9%.Of the 27 analysts surveyed by FactSet, 19 rate the stock the equivalent of overweight, or buy, while 7 rate it the equivalent of hold and 1 rates it the equivalent of sell. That makes the average rating overweight.The average stock price target is $195.79, which is about 25% above current levels, but down from the average target of $210.50 as of the end of March and $229.96 at the end of 2018.

Sell

FDX

Fedex

Caterpillar’s Fortunes Are Tied to Those of the Global Economy(Oct 29, 2019)

Sell

241180

Mirae Asset TIGER NIKKEI225 ETF

Caterpillar’s Fortunes Are Tied to Those of the Global Economy(Oct 29, 2019)

In Caterpillar’s 3Q 2019 earnings call, the company announced a 6% year-over-year drop in sales and revenues for the third quarter, the first quarterly decline in nearly three years. CEO Jim Umpleby attributed the decline to a sharp reduction in dealer inventories in anticipation of lower end-user demand. The company also cut its forecasts for 2019 annual results based on an assumption of continued reductions in dealer inventories and flat customer demand through the fourth quarter.Umpleby cited “uncertainty in the global economic environment” as the primary reason for the increased caution exhibited by both dealers and end-users. Caterpillar breaks down its revenue into four regions: North America, Latin America, EAME, and Asia Pacific. In the third quarter, only Latin America saw an increase in sales and revenues; however, this region accounts for less than 10% of CAT’s total revenues. Sales in the Asia Pacific region shrank by 14% during the quarter, which includes a 29% plummet in sales to construction industries. Umpleby noted that the weakness in the Asia Pacific is outside of their main markets in China and Japan.Caterpillar’s results confirm the most recent global analysis from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF’s October World Economic Outlook shows global GDP growth slowing from 3.6% in 2018 to 3.0% in 2019 and 3.4% in 2020; these projections are significantly lower than the organization’s July’s interim projections. A 3.0% growth rate would be the slowest global growth since the 2008-2009 global economic slowdown. According to the IMF, risks to the global growth outlook skew to the downside as trade barriers and heightened geopolitical tensions disrupt global supply chains and hamper confidence, investment, and growth. This is a negative sign for Caterpillar and other global companies.Persistent alarmist news about tariffs and potential trade wars over the last two years has hurt CAT’s stock. After peaking in early 2018, we have seen a general downward movement in Caterpillar’s stock price (CAT), characterized by dramatic swings in response to news events including the imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports as well as the ups and downs of the U.S.-China trade war. CAT is one of the 30 companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and every time it moves, it brings the entire index with it. As of October 28, CAT is down 18% from its January 22, 2019 peak ($170.89).In 2018, foreign sales accounted for 58.5% of CAT’s total revenue, but this statistic only gives you part of the story. In Q3 2019, 21% of Caterpillar’s revenue was generated in the Asia Pacific region; in fact, FactSet estimates that 5.1% of total revenue is from China. After the United States and Canada, China is the company’s third-biggest market.We can take this global analysis even further. By extracting relationship disclosures from thousands of companies worldwide, FactSet has identified 159 suppliers, 65 customers, and 27 partners that do business with Caterpillar, representing 38 countries around the world. Digging deeper into these numbers, 60.4% of suppliers, 62.5% of customers, and 66.7% of partners are located outside of the United States. Caterpillar has developed a truly global supply chain.In addition, the company employs thousands of people around the world. According to Caterpillar, the company serves 193 countries through its dealer network. The company’s 2018 annual report states that, “we employed about 104,000 full-time persons of whom approximately 59,400 were located outside the United States.”Will Caterpillar Be Able to Weather This Storm?For a company selling large, expensive industrial machinery both domestically and abroad, a global slowdown in industrial activity is a concern. However, Caterpillar and its leadership are well-known for their ability to successfully navigate through troubled economic conditions. Despite the weak third quarter performance and downgrade to the outlook, Caterpillar saw a 1.2% increase in its stock price when it released 3Q earnings on October 23. Analysts appear to have been reassured by the company’s continued strong margins and focus on its cost structure. Undoubtedly, this global powerhouse will find a way to persevere despite growing business obstacles, but the next couple of years are likely to be challenging.

Sell

241180

Mirae Asset TIGER NIKKEI225 ETF

S&P 500 Reporting YoY Decline in Net Profit Margin for 3rd Straight Qtr(Oct 21, 2019)

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

S&P 500 Reporting YoY Decline in Net Profit Margin for 3rd Straight Qtr(Oct 21, 2019)

For the third quarter, the S&P 500 is reporting a year-over-year decline in earnings of -4.7%, but year-over-year growth in revenues of 2.6%. Given the dichotomy in growth between earnings and revenues, there are concerns in the market about net profit margins for S&P 500 companies in the third quarter. Given this concern, what is the S&P 500 reporting for a net profit margin in the third quarter?The blended net profit margin for the S&P 500 for Q3 2019 is 11.3%. If 11.3% is the actual net profit margin for the quarter, it will mark the first time the index has reported three straight quarters of year-over-year declines in net profit margin since Q1 2009 through Q3 2009. Nine of the 11 sectors are reporting a year-over-year decline in their net profit margins in Q3 2019, led by the Energy (5.4% vs. 8.1%) and Information Technology (20.6% vs. 23.0%) sectors.What is driving the year-over-year decrease in the net profit margin?One factor is a difficult year-over-year comparison. In Q3 2018, the S&P 500 reported the highest net profit margin since FactSet began tracking this data in 2008. While nine sectors are reporting a year-over-year decline in net profit margins, only one sector (Health Care) is reporting a net profit margin below its five-year average. Higher costs are likely another factor. Of the first 22 S&P 500 companies to conduct earnings calls for Q3, seven (32%) discussed a negative impact from higher wages and labor costs and five (21%) discussed a negative impact from higher raw material or other input costs. Please see our previous article on this topic.Based on current estimates, the estimated net profit margins for Q4 2019, Q1 2020, and Q2 2020 are 11.1%, 11.3%, and 11.7%. Net profit margins are expected to increase on a year-over-year basis again in Q1 2020.To maintain consistency, the earnings and revenue numbers used to calculate the earnings and revenue growth rates published in this report were also used to calculate the index-level and sector-level net profit margins for this analysis. In addition, all year-over-year comparisons for Q3 2019 to Q3 2018 (and all other year-over-year comparisons for historical quarters) reflect an apples-to-apples comparison of data at the company level.

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Outlook for US corporate profits dims as trade war bites(Aug 28, 2019)

Sell

Outlook for US corporate profits dims as trade war bites(Aug 28, 2019)

Analysts have pared profit expectations for US companies by the most in three years as the trade war with China and a dimming economic outlook weigh on earnings and expansion plans. Companies in the S&P 500 index will increase profits 2.4 per cent on a per-share basis this year, down from the 7.7 per cent growth expected at the start of the year, according to FactSet data. The 5.3 percentage-point drop in full-year earnings expectations marks the largest decline on a year-to-date basis since 2016. “The corporate sector is displaying worrisome symptoms,” Lydia Boussour, senior economist for Oxford Economics, wrote in a note to clients last week. “With global growth slowing sharply, and domestic activity cooling, further profit weakness represents a risk for business investment and hiring — a key support to consumer spending.” Second-quarter profits for companies in the S&P 500 are down 0.4 per cent on a per-share basis with 96 per cent of companies having reported. A contraction would mark an “earnings recession” of two consecutive quarters of negative earnings growth after profits slipped 0.2 per cent in the first quarter, according to FactSet data. Companies that have scaled back profit guidance in the second quarter include Macy’s, Home Depot, Caterpillar and, on Tuesday, pet food company JM Smucker.Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found here. https://www.ft.com/content/aef9b1e2-c90e-11e9-a1f4-3669401ba76fTrade tensions between the US and China escalated last week when Beijing said it was preparing to slap tariffs on $75bn of US imports, and President Donald Trump responded with a plan to increase levies on Chinese goods and what he called an order for US companies to “immediately” find alternatives to China. Shifting US operations out of China would increase costs for companies, said Alicia Levine, chief market strategist for BNY Mellon Investment Management. “Changing supply chains will impact margins,” she said. “Given where the global economy is and the pain points, I expect [corporate profit estimates] will come down.” The lower profit outlook follows anaemic growth in US capital spending this year after a surge in 2018 when lower corporate taxes came into force.

Sell

Industry Analysts Predict the S&P 500 Will Close Above 3400 in CY 2020(Dec 18, 2019)

Sell

Industry Analysts Predict the S&P 500 Will Close Above 3400 in CY 2020(Dec 18, 2019)

For 2019, the S&P 500 has witnessed an increase in value of 26.4% (to 3168.57 from 2506.85) to date. Where do industry analysts believe the price of the index will go from here?Industry analysts in aggregate predict the S&P 500 will see a 7.5% increase in price over the next twelve months. This percentage is based on the difference between the bottom-up target price and the closing price for the index as of yesterday. The bottom-up target price is calculated by aggregating the median target price estimates (based on company-level estimates submitted by industry analysts) for all the companies in the index. On December 12, the bottom-up target price for the S&P 500 was 3407.46, which was 7.5% above the closing price of 3168.57.How accurate have the industry analysts been in predicting the final value of the S&P 500?Over the previous 15 years (2004 – 2018), the average difference between the bottom-up target price estimate at the beginning of the year (December 31) and the final price for the index for that same year has been 9.0%. In other words, industry analysts on average have overestimated the final price of the index by about 9.0% one year in advance during the previous 15 years. Analysts overestimated the final value (i.e. the final value finished below the estimate) in 12 of the 15 years and underestimated the final value (i.e. the final value finished above the estimate) in the other 3 years.However, this 9.0% average includes one year (2008) in which there was a substantial difference between the bottom-up target price estimate at the start of the year and the closing price for the index for that same year (+92%). If the year 2008 were excluded, the average difference between the bottom-up target price estimate one year prior to the end of that year and the closing price of the index for that same year would be 3.1%.If one applies the average overestimation of 9.0% to the current 2020 bottom-up target price estimate (assuming the estimate changes little between now and December 31), the expected closing value for 2020 would be 3100.60. If one applies the average overestimation of 3.1% (excluding 2008) to the current 2020 bottom-up target price estimate, the expected closing value for 2020 would be 3302.46.

Sell

Dax and CAC indexes break new ground before retreating(Dec 14, 1999)

Strong Sell

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

Dax and CAC indexes break new ground before retreating(Dec 14, 1999)

German stocks grabbed the spotlight in Europe Tuesday, powering the benchmark index to a lifetime high in early trade before trimming its gains in the afternoon. A mixed opening on Wall Street had little impact on late European trading. Frankfurt far outstripped lackluster performances from its continental neighbors, with an increase on the Xetra Dax of 1.5 percent, or 94 points, to 6,221.28. The index had peaked at 6,235.22 earlier in the session. London's FTSE 100 scraped into the black, rising just 7 points at 6,710.7. In Paris the CAC 40 gained 25 points to 5,561.49, having earlier set a new record of 5,587.67, while in Zurich the SMI was up 18 points at 7,310.8. The FTSE Eurotop 300, a broader measure of European stocks, gained 0.7 percent, led by transport and electrical stocks. Evidence of tame inflation in the United States in Tuesday�s report on November consumer prices failed to excite European investors. In Frankfurt, electrical giant Siemens (FSIE) drove the Dax higher after it reported improved prospects for chip pricing. The company plans to spin off its semiconductors unit Infineon. Siemens rose 4 percent to 117.35 euros. Other tech stocks rose in sympathy, with French microchip maker STMicroelectronics (PSGS) gaining 4 percent in Paris. Also on the move in Germany were telecom stocks Deutsche Telekom (FDTE), up almost 3 percent, and Mannesmann (FMMN), which rose 2.5 percent. In London the transport and financial sectors caught the eye in an otherwise dull session. Hopes that a much-publicized government plan to revamp the U.K.'s transport system would have little impact on private rail firms� profits brought relief to rail infrastructure operator Railtrack (RTK). Dealers speculated the train regulator's review later this week will not be too onerous for the company's earnings. The stock soared 10 percent, and was pursued higher by shipping and logistics firm P&O (PO-) and British Airways (BAY). National Westminster (NWB), the subject of competing bids from Bank of Scotland (BSCT) and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBOS), rose 3 percent, while the rival bidders were both some 2 percent higher. Speculation about a bid in the retail sector kept supermarket and other retail stocks moving up, with possible target J. Sainsbury (SBRY) jumping 7 percent and fellow struggler Marks & Spencer (MKS) gaining 2 percent. In Paris, pay-TV operator Canal Plus's (PAN) recent sharp gains came to an end. After rising more than a third in the past week the shares slid� 4 percent Tuesday. Going in the opposite direction was hypermarket retailer Carrefour (PCA), which benefited from the positive sentiment among retail stocks across the Channel. In Zurich the focus was on Ciba Specialty Chemicals, which sold a polymers division to a unit of Deutsche Bank (FDBK) for $1.2 billion, sending Ciba stock up 1 percent. Investors were unimpressed by news that UBS plans to increase its share buyback program, and the bank's stock dropped nearly 5 percent

Strong Sell

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

Panicked Chinese mistakenly hoarding iodized salt(March 18, 2011)

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Panicked Chinese mistakenly hoarding iodized salt(March 18, 2011)

China's economic agency told shoppers Thursday to stop panic buying salt, blaming baseless rumors that the iodine in it can stop radiation sickness.The Chinese government has repeatedly said the country's residents will not be exposed to radiation from a nuclear plant in northeastern Japan which engineers are frantically trying to bring under control after it was damaged by last Friday's earthquake and tsunami.But in a sign of increasing public worries about the risks, people across much of China have been buying large amounts of iodized salt, emptying markets of the usually cheap and plentiful product.The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country's economic policy agency, said price regulators could investigate and punish price gouging.Disaster sparks demand for potassium iodide"In recent days, some areas have been affected by rumors that have sparked intensive buying of salt, and some lawless merchants have leapt at the opportunity to raise prices," said the NDRC in an emailed statement."Don't believe rumors, don't spread rumors, and don't panic buy," said the notice.The spike in demand may be born of a misunderstanding of reports noting that the thyroid gland is susceptible to radioactive iodine — just one of several types of radiation that could be produced by the crippled reactors — and that potassium iodide tablets can block the radioactive iodine if taken before exposure. In the U.S., demand for potassium iodide has swamped manufacturers or suppliers approved by the federal Food and Drug Administration.Salt containing iodine, however, would not shield against the radiation, medical experts said in newspaper reports on Thursday, adding there was no reason for alarm in China, which is thousands of kilometers away from the reactors.Still, some Chinese residents formed long lines to buy salt, and the state distribution company has vowed to speed up supply.At a Hua Pu Supermarket in Beijing, shoppers bought salt faster than the staff could stock shelves with it.One woman carrying a package of salt was stopped and asked by others where she got it."This bag of salt was given to me by my friend who bought it this morning," said the woman, who declined to give her name. "I heard they queued for a long time, and each person was only allowed to buy five bags."

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Is Apple Stock (Nasdaq: AAPL) the Short of a Lifetime or the New Widow Maker?(March 27, 2012)

Sell

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

Is Apple Stock (Nasdaq: AAPL) the Short of a Lifetime or the New Widow Maker?(March 27, 2012)

I have a confession to make.I believe Apple stock (Nasdaq: AAPL) is going to be world's first trillion-dollar company yet I want to short the snot out of it.Am I being compulsive?...impulsive?....or foolish?Perhaps it is all three considering that Apple has risen more than 3,000% in the last ten years, turning almost any attempt to go against the grain into a "widow maker" trade.Trump boom awakens “silent” $2 stock [Sponsored by Timothy Sykes]I say almost because I am one of the lucky ones.A few weeks ago I recommended my Strike Force subscribers purchase put options on Apple, effectively shorting the stock. That resulted in a 47% profit in less than 24 hours for anyone who followed along, excluding fees and commissions.I'm not alone in my thinking.Why Buffett, Bezos, & Congress Are Piling Into This One Sector [Sponsored by Investorplace]Uber investor Doug Kass, general partner of Seabreeze Partners Long/Short LP and Seabreeze Partners Long/Short Offshore LP, tweeted recently that he had covered "half his short" on Apple following the announcement of their dividend and buyback plan.Given that the stock had run up to nearly $608 a share before the announcement, presumably Kass had banked some gains, too.7 Reasons to Short Apple Stock(Nasdaq: AAPL)I haven't spoken with Mr. Kass so I can't comment on his current thinking nor the specifics of his trade, but here are mine:The company has single-handedly repeated the bubble curve of the Nasdaq run up. That leaves a lot of empty space to the downside.Apple is a "fad" or a "hit" company, meaning that its price seems to correlate to new product launches rather than the sustainable development of key product lines. Companies that do that tend to fall back from orbit at some point - especially in the tech world. Palm and Research in Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM) are two that come to mind.When great leaders are gone, their legacies can struggle. While Apple has stood up so far following Steve Jobs' unfortunate death, I can only wonder, as many in the tech community are wondering, how deep and how far out his thinking will live on. Is it one product cycle, two cycles? Nobody knows. But we do know that Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) became a very different company after Bill Gates stepped aside. Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) also flatlined three or four cycles after Andy Grove's departure from day-to-day operations.Apple's short interest of only 9.8 million shares is very low considering the company's three-month average daily trading volume is 18.2 million shares and the company's float is 931.8 million shares.The analyst community is almost completely positive. That's usually a sign of two things: a) that they're soft peddling opposing trades from other parts of the "shops" they work for or b) that they want a run up to maximize profits from positions they already hold. Either way, many have been tremendously wrong in their sales projections in recent quarters, understating anticipated results by as much as 30%-40% - a factor also noted by Kass in his trade set up analysis. Therefore, I am skeptical that they are raising numbers again.Apple's profit margins are unbelievably high at a time when the rest of the economy lurches along. While that's not a bad thing in isolation, I have a hard time believing that Apple can remain so far out of line if for no other reason that what goes up must come down eventually. And, since the road higher is far more unlikely for the rest of the markets, it is logical that Apple likely heads lower in the short term.Apple's fundamentals may soften. There are lots of reasons to love Apple but there are just as many reasons things may not be what they seem. If the economy worsens just how many people are going to buy "gee-whiz" technology beyond the hard core Apple-heads? Is there an Apple-killer in somebody's garage right now? Anti-trust investigations and supply problems are also big what ifs at the moment. Even a carrier failure could rock Apple because it may be their subsidies that keep Apple's costs down and profits high.Add it all up and there is enough to make you go hmmm...Of course, there is no doubt I will incur the wrath of Apple fans everywhere and arm chair traders from here to Tibet.Trump’s Shocking Exec Order 001 [Sponsored by Bayan Hill]Get over it guys; please refrain from the snarky e-mails telling me I'm an idiot or out of touch or worse - I believe in Apple. I really do.What I am suggesting is simply the logic behind Apple as a trading opportunity for nimble, aggressive and like minded market mavens.Besides, if I am correct and Apple does trade lower in the weeks ahead, I'm going to be picking up shares as an investment.

Sell

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

Private Company Stock Trading Frenzy: Here's Who's Trading What(Jan 22, 2011)

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Private Company Stock Trading Frenzy: Here's Who's Trading What(Jan 22, 2011)

SecondMarket, the online marketplace for buying private company stock, just released their 2010 data.Naturally, Facebook ranks number 1, making up 39% of all pre-IPO completed transactions.SecondMarket also revealed who's making all the trades, which industries are the most popular to trade, and which private companies are traded most.Want to get buy a piece of Facebook?SecondMarket, the service that lets you buy private company stock, is your way in.But first you must qualify as an "accredited investor."By SEC definition, an accredited investor earns more than $200,000 per year or holds at least $1 million in assets.If you meet those qualifications and you pass SecondMarket's criminal background check, the chances of you getting a chunk of Facebook are still slim.Second Market rep Mark Murphy tells us the average transaction on the service is a whopping $2 million.In addition, most investors are not individuals. They're institutions like hedge funds and VC firms that the private companies choose to let invest in them.If you meet all the requirements to begin trading, the process is relatively simple. You can either purchase stock on SecondMarket's website or through one of their market specialists. Since Facebook makes up 45% of SecondMarket's business, there's a special process for trading its stock.Here's how it works:SecondMarket evaluates seller interest before starting an auction.Next, SecondMarket checks potential buyer interest.Once both parties are set and a share price has been established, the bidding begins. The auction remains open for nine days.At the end of the auction, the highest bidders take the available shares.SecondMarket takes a cut between three and five percent of each transaction. The cost is split evenly between the buyer and seller.The stock is yours. These Facebook auctions take place somewhat regularly, so there's plenty of opportunity.And that's it. If you can afford it, you can own stock in the hottest company everyone wants a piece of.

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

PetroChina worth $1 trillion ... briefly(Nov. 5, 2007)

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

PetroChina worth $1 trillion ... briefly(Nov. 5, 2007)

What the Shanghai stock exchange giveth, Wall Street taketh away.Hours after PetroChina shares almost tripled in value on their first day of trading in Shanghai, they slumped 11 percent in New York after a big investment bank said the stock was overvalued.China’s biggest oil and gas company — the publicly listed unit of state-owned China National Petroleum Corp. — became the world’s first company with a $1 trillion market capitalization after its shares debuted Monday in its homeland.The 4 billion new shares surged to 43.96 yuan ($5.90), nearly triple the IPO price of 16.70 yuan ($2.24). The initial public offering raised 66.8 billion yuan ($8.94 billion) — a record for a mainland exchange.The Shanghai shares are meant for domestic investors and are generally off-limits to would-be foreign buyers. Chinese investors likewise have limited access to overseas-traded shares, crimping the leeway for arbitrage between the markets.The buying frenzy in China, though, didn’t translate to Wall Street.PetroChina’s U.S. shares were off sharply Monday, falling $28.56, or 11.2 percent, to $226.50 in afternoon trading.In a research note, Bear Stearns downgraded the shares to underperform, noting they were trading at a 51 percent premium to the investment bank’s new year-end 2008 fair value and target price.“PetroChina shares have risen 45.6 percent over the past month alone,” Bear Stearns said. “Time to take profit.”Adding the value of PetroChina shares traded in Shanghai, Hong Kong and New York, and the 157.9 billion shares held by CNPC, the company’s total market capitalization rose to just over $1 trillion, far surpassing No. 2 Exxon Mobil Corp.’s $488 billion.However, Bear Stearns noted, based on Wall Street consensus forecasts, PetroChina was trading at a 72 percent premium to Exxon Mobil based on a 2008 price-to-earnings valuation. “From an operational perspective, we see little reason for this disparity,” the investment bank said.Indeed, when measured by earnings, Exxon remains a much larger company. Its $9.41 billion in third-quarter net profit, while down 10 percent from a year earlier, nearly matched PetroChina’s net profit of 81.8 billion yuan ($10.8 billion) for the entire first half of the year.Exxon’s oil and gas reserves — a gauge of future profit potential — stood at 22.7 billion barrels by the end of 2006, compared with PetroChina’s 20.5 billion barrels.The Chinese company has seen revenue soar amid surging oil prices but has struggled to boost production from its aging domestic oil fields. Like rival Sinopec, it’s been squeezed by a widening gap between soaring world crude oil prices and state-controlled prices for oil products in the domestic market.But PetroChina’s strong showing was expected all the same. Chinese investors have shown a huge appetite for elite government giants that are seen as proxies for the country’s economic boom.

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

No Bounds Seen for Investor Frenzy for Funds(2007-10-30)

Strong Sell

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

No Bounds Seen for Investor Frenzy for Funds(2007-10-30)

A paradigm shift is taking place in wealth management as people are pulling money out of bank savings accounts to invest in equity and other types of funds. The asset management industry is set to thrive on the ever-growing demand for these funds.According to a survey of 928 salaried workers by Open Salary, an online salary information provider, the number of those accumulating assets by putting money in savings accounts dropped by 5.2 percentage points from a year ago, while those investing in funds grew by 5.4 percentage points.If the typical Korean middle class used to accumulate money in bank deposits and bought real estate with the money to make their fortune, now the answer is investment in a variety of funds. In the 1980s and 1990s, when interest rates hovered at above 10 percent, one was guaranteed an investment return higher than inflation with safe assets such as bank deposits. Now, however, with the annual interest rate at a mere 4 to 5 percent, the investment return is a de facto minus if one depends solely on savings.While the interest rate for savings accounts is disappointing, some funds have recorded amazing returns during the last few years. Leading the latest boom in fund investment are China funds. Those who put money in China funds at the beginning of this year have reaped over 70 percent in returns so far.Those who have not subscribed to funds yet, regret that they haven't. They envy the high returns the others boast of, but they are also hesitant about subscribing to the funds now. They hesitate over questions like ``Isn't it too late?'' ``What if the stock market collapses?'' And ``Doesn't it seem too complicated?''Various equity funds have produced impressive gains that are far higher than those of savings accounts. Will these funds continue to be a goose laying golden eggs? One thing that is clear is that performances will not be even.On the road toward higher returns, a lot of risks are strewn. Those who are not well aware of, or prepared for those risks might be burned, licking their wounds from investment losses. Here are some useful tips for investment in funds in this era of so-called ``fund capitalism.''Know ThyselfThere are hundreds of fund products prepared when one visits banks or securities firms to start investing. Not a few beginners choose funds by simply seeing a friend enjoying high investment returns, or at the recommendation of banks or securities companies. It isn't that simple. The choice one makes over the short term determines investment returns for years to come.``Investors should think about how much risk they are willing to take, for how long,'' said Hur Jin-young, a fund analyst at Zeroin. She stressed that one should consider risk management first in fund investment.Banks and securities companies offer a number of questions to see how risk-averse a person is. Generally, younger people take more risks. Without spouses or children to support, young people can take a more aggressive strategy. They can take high risks to get higher returns. They have time and strength to start again even if the investment ends in a loss. A high risk, high investment tool would be torture to people with low risk-adaptability as they would be having sleepless nights at the slightest fluctuation in the market.People should also schedule when the money will be needed. If someone plans to get married within a year, for example, putting all their money in funds isn't a good choice as cash will be needed. Fund investment should be a long-term investment.DiversificationOnce one has determined how risk-friendly a person is, there comes portfolio designing. The keyword is diversification: No matter when, don't put all your eggs in one basket. Diversification means less volatility. A part of the money should be kept in stable assets such as savings and bonds, and the rest could seek higher investment returns through equity type funds. The ratio depends on each person.Even within an equity fund, one should diversify region. Analysts advise that investors had better avoid putting over 30 percent of assets in one region, no matter how rosy the outlook is there. The fund portfolio should be diversified to include ones investing in the Seoul bourse, others investing in advanced markets such as the United States, Japan or Europe, and emerging market funds plus those investing in alternatives such as natural resources and crops.The recent recommendation on BRICs funds instead of China only funds shows how diversification matters. China funds have brought joy for many investors, and have been absorbing capital. The high price earnings ratio (PER), however, makes investors fear that it might be overvalued. Some refute this saying that it isn't too high when considering the growth Chinese businesses will achieve in a few years, but investors were uneasy when the Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.8 percent last Thursday, upon the possibility of an interest rate hike on inflation concerns.Analysts say BRICs funds, investing in Brazil, Russia, India and China, can be an alternative to China funds. These funds bet on the high growth potential of emerging markets, including China, while not putting all of their eggs in the China basket. The other three countries' stock markets haven't rallied as much as China recently, but abundant natural resources in Brazil and Russia make their economies go their own way.According to Shinhan BNP Paribas Investment Trust Management, stock markets of advanced countries have an average 0.75 correlation coefficient among themselves. The coefficient among BRICs countries, meanwhile, stands at between 0.2 and 0.5. This means European stock markets are likely to collapse when the U.S. market plunges. Diversifying a portfolio into Europe and the United States only would not help much. By investing in countries that are not much correlated between themselves, meanwhile, one can make up for losses from other solid markets even if one of them goes bad.Long-term InvestmentAnother way to diversify investment is to pay money in installments. Investors don't have to worry about short-term fluctuations if they make investments in installments, over a long period of time. If the market is bullish at the time they put the money in the fund, it lowers the average cost of the investment. Installment investments do not guarantee better returns than a lump-sum investment, but they are safer.Analysts also stress that fund investment should be made over the long-term. Expecting too much in returns, pouring money into a certain fund for a short period of time is not investment but rather speculation and gambling.There are good days and bad days on the market. In the long run, however, the market has been growing. Once the investor makes a decision after thoroughly checking the value and growth potential of a certain fund product, they shouldn't fret about short-term ups and downs. They will gain in the long run if market fundamentals are good. Switching funds too often also results in waste through commissions.VigilanceLong-term investment doesn't mean one shouldn't oversee what is going on with the funds. One should check returns from time to time and gather a comprehensive outlook on the market. The Korean stock market, which had a rally like the Chinese bourse, had a nosedive after the Seoul Olympics in 1988. It lost momentum for a decade after then. Adhering to the Japanese market during the country's lost decade would not be a smart long-term investment. One should know the direction of a graph though short-term fluctuation doesn't matter. One could consider withdrawing part of the money when reaching an investment returns target to also minimize risk.Most funds also send investors reports regularly, which is a good source of information for investors to make decisions. A number of Websites, including www.amak.or.kr, www.funddoctor.co.kr, or www.fundzone.co.kr, provide information on funds.The shift to funds brought a big change to Korean investors. One should keep in mind that funds investment can incur a loss and that the over 100 percent returns of China funds aren't likely to repeat. Funds investment, however, saves time and effort for the investor than direct stock investment, and helps them gain knowledge on the global macro economy.

Strong Sell

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

Dow soars into history(March 16, 2000)

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Dow soars into history(March 16, 2000)

NEW YORK (CNNfn) - The Dow Jones industrial average rose a record 499.19 points Thursday, lifted as money poured into "old economy" stocks out-of-favor for much of the year. The blue-chip euphoria lifted the world's best-known index out of the hole that Wall Street considers a correction, handing the New York Stock Exchange its busiest trading day on record. Investors made heroes out of stocks such as American Express, J.P. Morgan and Minnesota Mining & Manufacturing - all down by double digits in the last three months. The gains came after a batch of tame inflation figures eased Wall Street's worst fears about sharply higher interest rates to come, boosting expectations for strong corporate profits ahead. "The rumors of the Dow's death has been much exaggerated," Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co., told CNN's Street Sweep. Less than two weeks ago a surprise profit warning from Procter & Gamble knocked 375 points off the Dow. That seemed a distant memory Thursday, with the blue chip frenzy lifting 29 of the Dow's 30 stocks and spreading to the Nasdaq composite index, which broke a three-session losing streak. Only Dow member Microsoft, the world's most valuable company, failed to rise. "It's phenomenal," said Charles Payne, head analyst at Wall Street Strategies. "We're breaking all sorts of technical resistance levels like a hot knife through butter." But Goldman Sachs' Abby Joseph Cohen told CNNfn on Moneyline that investors should not look at this phenomenal rise as a trend for the year. (235K WAV or 235K AIFF) The Dow soared 499.19 points, or more than 4.9 percent, to 10,630.60. The gain shattered the previous record, a 380.53-point rise set Sept. 8, 1998. With the day's action, the index is now about 9.3 percent below its all-time high of 11,722 set Jan. 14, pushing it below the 10 percent dip Wall Street deems a correction. Lifted by data The Dow's rise began with the start of trading, when a tame rise in producer price data failed to confirm analysts' worst fears about climbing inflation. Analysts said the news suggests only modest interest rate hikes lie ahead. "I don't see (the economy) overheating," Wall Street Strategies' Payne said. "We've got strong growth and controlled growth. "There still isn't any clear-cut sign of inflation." The Nasdaq, meanwhile, reversed a 127-point loss earlier in the session, rising 134.66, or 2.9 percent, to 4,717.76. That broke three-sessions of double-digit losses.Charles Lemonides, chief investment officer at M&R capital, told CNNfn that the day's action could be the beginning of a broad market advance, countering the narrow gains seen only by the Nasdaq. The day's action supported that. The broader S&P 500 catapulted 64.66, or 4.7 percent, to 1,456.63. And more stocks rose than fell. Advancers on the New York Stock Exchange swamped decliners 2,414 to 410 as trading volume topped 1.48 billion shares, a record. Nasdaq winners beat losers 2,259 to 2,004 with more than 2 billion shares changing hands. In other markets, the dollar fell against the euro and was little changed versus the yen. Treasury securities rose. Dow flexes muscles The Dow's jump of more than 800 points in the last two sessions comes as investors fish for some of the cheapest of blue-chip stocks. Among the big drivers, American Express (AXP: Research, Estimates) rocketed 10-7/8 to 143-3/4, J.P. Morgan (JPM: Research, Estimates) surged 7-1/8 to 124-5/8 and Minnesota Mining & Manufacturing (MMM: Research, Estimates) catapulted 5-9/16 to 88-1/16. "A lot of these stocks were much higher a year ago than they are today," Ned Riley, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors, told CNN's In the Money. "Clearly, the bottom-fishing issue is important and real." Still, Paul Rabbitt, president of Rabbitt Analytics, told CNNfn's Talking Stocks he sees the Nasdaq resuming its lead as investors chase the highest growth tech companies. (408K WAV) (408K AIFF). Even after the day's action, the Dow is still down 7.5 percent this year while the Nasdaq is up 15.9 percent in 2000. But on Thursday, Nasdaq leaders surged alongside old economy stalwarts. Oracle (ORCL: Research, Estimates) jumped 3-5/8 to 81-15/16, Intel (INTC: Research, Estimates) rose 4-7/8 to 125-1/16, and JDS Uniphase (JDSU: Research, Estimates) rocketed 10-11/16 to 129-7/16. But Microsoft (MSFT: Research, Estimates), failed to rise, ending unchanged at 95-3/8. Inflation-friendly data Blue-chip stocks found support after the latest batch of economic indicators suggested inflation remains tame enough to keep the Federal Reserve from aggressively tightening credit, boosting expectations for strong corporate profits. While producer prices posted their biggest monthly jump in more than nine years in February, the core rate, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, advanced at a more moderate pace of rose 0.3 percent. "Inflation appears to be muted," said Alan Ackerman, senior vice president at Fahnestock & Co. Separately, the Commerce Department reported that housing starts rose 1.3 percent to a 1.78 million-unit rate in February, suggesting the housing market remains strong, undeterred by the Fed's four rate hikes since June. Finally, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to 262,000 for the week ended March 11, the Labor Department said.

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Citi downgrades Nike to neutral after disappointing meeting with CEO( Feb 7 2025)

Neutral

NKE

Nike Class B

Citi downgrades Nike to neutral after disappointing meeting with CEO( Feb 7 2025)

A new CEO at the helm hasn’t convinced Citi that Nike can successfully pull off a comeback. Analyst Paul Lejuez downgraded shares of the athletic footwear and apparel retailer to a neutral rating from buy, simultaneously slashing his price target to $72 from $102. This updated forecast is fractionally higher than Nike’s Thursday closing price of $71.74. Shares of Nike have tumbled 31% over the past 12 months. NKE 1Y mountain NKE 1Y chart Citi’s decision followed a sell-side event to meet new Nike CEO Elliott Hill, on whom analysts have pinned hopes of a long turnaround for the brand . But Lejuez came away from the meeting feeling less reassured. “After discussing the key building blocks and challenges to achieve a turnaround, we no longer believe F26 will inflect the way we hoped, either on the sales or EBIT margin line. Topline pressures seem likely to continue as they manage down key franchises further in F26, without enough new product at scale to fill the void,” the analyst wrote. “We believe F26 consensus ests are too high, making the turnaround timing much less visible, and we no longer have the patience or conviction to wait another year,” the analyst added. Besides continuing sales pressures, Lejuez also highlighted margin headwinds resulting from taking product off the marketplace and from newer products as another obstacle for the company. Albeit short term, these pressures will likely persist beyond fiscal 2025, resulting in another down margin year in 2026. Meanwhile, a U.S.-China tariff war could mean market share loss among Chinese customers, while Nike’s attempts to offload current product through off-price deals could hurt the demand of new full-price launches. Lejuez also pointed to smaller competitors such as Hoka, On and Birkenstock as another emerging threat. “Smaller brands like Hoka, On, Birkenstock all have significant momentum, and are looking to expand into products that will compete with NKE in some way; NKE may have a hard time disrupting the momentum, making it difficult to gain back shelf space with wholesale partners,” he wrote.

Neutral

NKE

Nike Class B

Worst Crisis Since '30s, With No End Yet in Sight(Sept. 18, 2008)

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Worst Crisis Since '30s, With No End Yet in Sight(Sept. 18, 2008)

The financial crisis that began 13 months ago has entered a new, far more serious phase.Lingering hopes that the damage could be contained to a handful of financial institutions that made bad bets on mortgages have evaporated. New fault lines are emerging beyond the original problem -- troubled subprime mortgages -- in areas like credit-default swaps, the credit insurance contracts sold by American International Group Inc. and others. There's also a growing sense of wariness about the health of trading partners.The consequences for companies and chief executives who tarry -- hoping for better times in which to raise capital, sell assets or acknowledge losses -- are now clear and brutal, as falling share prices and fearful lenders send troubled companies into ever-deeper holes. This weekend, such a realization led John Thain to sell the century-old Merrill Lynch & Co. to Bank of America Corp. Each episode seems to bring government intervention that is more extensive and expensive than the previous one, and carries greater risk of unintended consequences.Expectations for a quick end to the crisis are fading fast. "I think it's going to last a lot longer than perhaps we would have anticipated," Anne Mulcahy, chief executive of Xerox Corp. , said Wednesday."This has been the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. There is no question about it," said Mark Gertler, a New York University economist who worked with fellow academic Ben Bernanke, now the Federal Reserve chairman, to explain how financial turmoil can infect the overall economy. "But at the same time we have the policy mechanisms in place fighting it, which is something we didn't have during the Great Depression."Spreading DiseaseThe U.S. financial system resembles a patient in intensive care. The body is trying to fight off a disease that is spreading, and as it does so, the body convulses, settles for a time and then convulses again. The illness seems to be overwhelming the self-healing tendencies of markets. The doctors in charge are resorting to ever-more invasive treatment, and are now experimenting with remedies that have never before been applied. Fed Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, walking into a hastily arranged meeting with congressional leaders Tuesday night to brief them on the government's unprecedented rescue of AIG, looked like exhausted surgeons delivering grim news to the family.Fed and Treasury officials have identified the disease. It's called deleveraging, or the unwinding of debt. During the credit boom, financial institutions and American households took on too much debt. Between 2002 and 2006, household borrowing grew at an average annual rate of 11%, far outpacing overall economic growth. Borrowing by financial institutions grew by a 10% annualized rate. Now many of those borrowers can't pay back the loans, a problem that is exacerbated by the collapse in housing prices. They need to reduce their dependence on borrowed money, a painful and drawn-out process that can choke off credit and economic growth.At least three things need to happen to bring the deleveraging process to an end, and they're hard to do at once. Financial institutions and others need to fess up to their mistakes by selling or writing down the value of distressed assets they bought with borrowed money. They need to pay off debt. Finally, they need to rebuild their capital cushions, which have been eroded by losses on those distressed assets.But many of the distressed assets are hard to value and there are few if any buyers. Deleveraging also feeds on itself in a way that can create a downward spiral: Trying to sell assets pushes down the assets' prices, which makes them harder to sell and leads firms to try to sell more assets. That, in turn, suppresses these firms' share prices and makes it harder for them to sell new shares to raise capital. Mr. Bernanke, as an academic, dubbed this self-feeding loop a "financial accelerator.""Many of the CEO types weren't willing...to take these losses, and say, 'I accept the fact that I'm selling these way below fundamental value,'" said Anil Kashyap, a University of Chicago Business School economics professor. "The ones that had the biggest exposure, they've all died."Deleveraging started with securities tied to subprime mortgages, where defaults started rising rapidly in 2006. But the deleveraging process has now spread well beyond, to commercial real estate and auto loans to the short-term commitments on which investment banks rely to fund themselves. In the first quarter, financial-sector borrowing slowed to a 5.1% growth rate, about half of the average from 2002 to 2007. Household borrowing has slowed even more, to a 3.5% pace.Not EnoughGoldman Sachs Group Inc. economist Jan Hatzius estimates that in the past year, financial institutions around the world have already written down $408 billion worth of assets and raised $367 billion worth of capital.But that doesn't appear to be enough. Every time financial firms and investors suggest that they've written assets down enough and raised enough new capital, a new wave of selling triggers a reevaluation, propelling the crisis into new territory. Residential mortgage losses alone could hit $636 billion by 2012, Goldman estimates, triggering widespread retrenchment in bank lending. That could shave 1.8 percentage points a year off economic growth in 2008 and 2009 -- the equivalent of $250 billion in lost goods and services each year."This is a deleveraging like nothing we've ever seen before," said Robert Glauber, now a professor of Harvard's government and law schools who came to Washington in 1989 to help organize the savings and loan cleanup of the early 1990s. "The S&L losses to the government were small compared to this."Hedge funds could be among the next problem areas. Many rely on borrowed money to amplify their returns. With banks under pressure, many hedge funds are less able to borrow this money now, pressuring returns. Meanwhile, there are growing indications that fewer investors are shifting into hedge funds while others are pulling out. Fund investors are dealing with their own problems: Many have taken out loans to make their investments and are finding it more difficult now to borrow.That all makes it likely that more hedge funds will shutter in the months ahead, forcing them to sell their investments, further weighing on the market.Debt-driven financial traumas have a long history, from the Great Depression to the S&L crisis to the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s. Neither economists nor policymakers have easy solutions. Cutting interest rates and writing stimulus checks to families can help -- and may have prevented or delayed a deep recession. But, at least in this instance, they don't suffice.In such circumstances, governments almost invariably experiment with solutions with varying degrees of success. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt unleashed an alphabet soup of new agencies and a host of new regulations in the aftermath of the market crash of 1929. In the 1990s, Japan embarked on a decade of often-wasteful government spending to counter the aftereffects of a bursting bubble. President George H.W. Bush and Congress created the Resolution Trust Corp. to take and sell the assets of failed thrifts. Hong Kong's free-market government went on a massive stock-buying spree in 1998, buying up shares of every company listed in the benchmark Hang Seng index. It ended up packaging them into an exchange-traded fund and making money.Taking Out the PlaybookToday, Mr. Bernanke is taking out his playbook, said NYU economist Mr. Gertler, "and rewriting it as we go."Merrill Lynch & Co.'s emergency sale to Bank of America Corp. last weekend was an example of the perniciousness and unpredictability of deleveraging. In the past year, Merrill had hired a new chief executive, written off $41.4 billion in assets and raised $21 billion in equity capital.But Merrill couldn't keep up. The more it raised, the more it was forced to write off. When Merrill CEO John Thain attended a meeting with the New York Fed and other Wall Street executives last week, he saw that Merrill was the next most vulnerable brokerage firm. "We watched Bear and Lehman. We knew we could be next," said one Merrill executive. Fearful that its lenders would shut the firm off, he sold to Bank of America.This crisis is complicated by innovative financial instruments that Wall Street created and distributed. They're making it harder for officials and Wall Street executives to know where the next set of risks is hiding and also contributing to the crisis's spreading impact.Swaps GameThe latest trouble spot is an area called credit-default swaps, which are private contracts that let firms trade bets on whether a borrower is going to default. When a default occurs, one party pays off the other. The value of the swaps rise and fall as the market reassesses the risk that a company won't be able to honor its obligations. Firms use these instruments both as insurance -- to hedge their exposures to risk -- and to wager on the health of other companies. There are now credit-default swaps on more than $62 trillion in debt, up from about $144 billion a decade ago.One of the big new players in the swaps game was AIG, the world's largest insurer and a major seller of credit-default swaps to financial institutions and companies. When the credit markets were booming, many firms bought these instruments from AIG, believing the insurance giant's strong credit ratings and large balance sheet could provide a shield against bond and loan defaults. AIG believed the risk of default was low on many securities it insured.As of June 30, an AIG unit had written credit-default swaps on more than $446 billion in credit assets, including mortgage securities, corporate loans and complex structured products. Last year, when rising subprime-mortgage delinquencies damaged the value of many securities AIG had insured, the firm was forced to book large write-downs on its derivative positions. That spooked investors, who reacted by dumping its shares, making it harder for AIG to raise the capital it increasingly needed.One pleasant mystery is why the crisis hasn't hit the economy harder -- at least so far. "This financial crisis hasn't yet translated into fewer...companies starting up, less research and development, less marketing," Ivan Seidenberg, chief executive of Verizon Communications, said Wednesday. "We haven't seen that yet. I'm sure every company is keeping their eyes on it."At 6.1%, the unemployment rate remains well below the peak of 7.8% in 1992, amid the S&L crisis.In part, that's because government has reacted aggressively. The Fed's classic mistake that led to the Great Depression was that it tightened monetary policy when it should have eased. Mr. Bernanke didn't repeat that error. And Congress moved more swiftly to approve fiscal stimulus than most Washington veterans thought possible.In part, the broader economy has held mostly steady because exports have been so strong at just the right moment, a reminder of the global economy's importance to the U.S. And in part, it's because the U.S. economy is demonstrating impressive resilience, as information technology allows executives to react more quickly to emerging problems and -- to the discomfort of workers -- companies are quicker to adjust wages, hiring and work hours when the economy softens.But the risk remains that Wall Street's woes will spread to Main Street, as credit tightens for consumers and business. Already, U.S. auto makers have been forced to tighten the terms on their leasing programs, or abandon writing leases themselves altogether, because of problems in their finance units. Goldman Sachs economists' optimistic scenario is a couple years of mild recession or painfully slow economy growth.

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

What's wrong with the debt ceiling deal(August 2, 2011)

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

What's wrong with the debt ceiling deal(August 2, 2011)

The debt ceiling deal President Obama enacted Tuesday cuts deficits and lets the country avert default. But it is getting very muted applause from serious fiscal experts -- the ones who actually understand the federal budget."No one should pretend that they have solved anything other than an artificial political crisis," said Bob Bixby, executive director of the Concord Coalition, a nonpartisan deficit watchdog group.Bixby said he was watching the brokering of the final deal with "fixed horror."Here's what's been most maddening for hawks: For all the energy spent and bad blood created on the road to resolving that artificial crisis there's not nearly enough to show for it.Yes, the final deal may reduce deficits by at least $2.1 trillion over 10 years.But how those savings will be achieved is somewhat misguided, hawks say.The bill relies too heavily on cuts to discretionary spending, which is not the major driver of the country's long-term deficits. And it all but ignores the need to reform entitlements and raise more revenue -- both of which are key ingredients to improving the country's long-term solvency.Debt ceiling: What the deal will doCredit rating agency Fitch underscored that point Tuesday."While the agreement is clearly a step in the right direction, the United States ... must also confront tough choices on tax and spending against a weak economic backdrop if ... government debt is to be cut to safer levels."In theory, the special bipartisan congressional committee that the legislation creates could take up both entitlement and tax reform. But given the partisan bitterness on both those issues, the jury's out on whether the committee -- made up of 12 members from the House and Senate -- can move past that."I'd be surprised if the leadership on either side would appoint anyone who would compromise," said Pete Davis, a longtime Hill staffer who now runs Davis Capital Investment Ideas. "Deadlock is much more likely."But even if the committee surprises the pessimists and delivers a comprehensive debt reduction framework, there's no guarantee Congress will enact it.Lastly, the size of the deal is less than what hawks were pushing for. A $4 trillion "grand bargain" is what budget experts say is the minimum needed to start hitting the brakes on growth in the country's debt.The fact that negotiators were working toward such an agreement only to step back from it makes the final deal all the more frustrating."We have not reached the promised land," Erskine Bowles and Senator Alan Simpson, the co-chairs of President Obama's bipartisan debt commission, said in a statement. "The plan doesn't do enough to stabilize our debt, nor does it make any meaningful structural reforms to address our nation's long-term fiscal problems."That means Congress gets to have this whole rancorous debate all over again -- and again -- until they get it right.

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Global Markets React to the Japanese Yen Carry Trade Unwind(August 12, 2024)

Sell

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

Global Markets React to the Japanese Yen Carry Trade Unwind(August 12, 2024)

Last Monday, global equities and digital assets underwent a dramatic selloff as the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade rattled markets. The S&P Global Broad Market Index (BMI), which measures the performance of more than 14,000 stocks around the world, retreated 3.3%, its worst trading day in over two years. The Tokyo Stock Price Index, or TOPIX, fell 20% in its biggest three-day wipeout ever. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index tumbled as much as 17.5%.As an investor who’s weathered numerous market storms over the decades, I believe it’s important to understand the underlying causes of these movements and the lessons they hold for us.Carry trades, for those less familiar, involve borrowing in a low-interest-rate currency—like the Japanese yen or Swiss franc—and investing the proceeds in higher-yielding assets elsewhere. This strategy has been immensely profitable, given the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) longstanding zero-rate policy.However, the recent rate hike by the BOJ has thrown a wrench into these trades, leading to a rapid appreciation of the yen against the U.S. dollar. As many of you are aware, a strong local currency can put pressure on that country’s stock market because exported goods become less competitive.The yen’s appreciation mirrored past episodes, such as the 1998 Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) hedge fund collapse and the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis, where the yen appreciated 20% from its low. As of early August, the yen had already appreciated over 10% against the U.S. dollar.Following the selloff, the BOJ walked back its hawkish stance, with Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida pledging to refrain from further rate hikes amid market instability. This should provide some relief in the near term, but the broader implications of the yen’s rebound and the carry trade unwind will likely continue to influence markets.Given these developments, I urge caution. History suggests that the unwinding is not yet complete. In a report dated August 9, JPMorgan says it believes the unwind is about halfway done. What’s more, financial markets are pricing in multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, which could further exacerbate the carry trade unwind. In such a scenario, it’s prudent to remain cautious about “buying the dip.”

Sell

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

Trader gets two years for TARP fraud(Jul 23 2014)

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Trader gets two years for TARP fraud(Jul 23 2014)

A former Jefferies Group managing director convicted of defrauding investors who traded mortgage bonds through a government program established after the 2008 financial crisis was sentenced on Wednesday to two years in prison.Jesse Litvak, 39, was convicted on March 7 on all 15 counts, including 10 counts of securities fraud and one count of fraud under the federal bailout known as the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).Litvak was the first person charged under a 2009 law banning major fraud against the United States through TARP.Litvak, a married father of two, was sentenced by Chief Judge Janet Hall of the U.S. District Court in New Haven, Connecticut, who presided over his jury trial. Hall also fined him $1.75 million.“I do not view you as singled out,″ the judge told Litvak before pronouncing sentence. “You lied. Maybe that’s what people do every day on Wall Street, but that still doesn’t make it legal.″⁣Litvak’s conviction was seen as a boost for the U.S. Department of Justice, which has been criticized for not prosecuting enough people on Wall Street over misconduct before, during and after the financial crisis.Prosecutors had accused Litvak of lying to customers such as AllianceBernstein Holding about the prices of mortgage-backed securities from 2009 to 2011, generating more than $2 million for Jefferies and boosting his own pay prospects.Litvak allegedly deceived customers by inflating prices, concealing what Jefferies paid for bonds, and inventing sellers.Prosecutors said cheated investors included participants in the Public-Private Investment Program, a TARP initiative designed to restart the mortgage debt market.Litvak countered that his customers were professional investors who could tell whether prices were fair, and that his activities were commonplace in the industry.Read More Seven arrested in alleged penny stock pump-and-dumpProsecutors asked for a nine-year sentence for Litvak and a $5 million fine. Litvak’s lawyers sought a term of no more than 14 months.Jefferies, a unit of Leucadia National, agreed on March 12 to enter a nonprosecution agreement and pay $25 million to settle criminal and civil probes into its alleged failure to supervise Litvak and other traders.

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Why Is the Stock Market So Volatile in October?( 28 September 2021)

Neutral

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Why Is the Stock Market So Volatile in October?( 28 September 2021)

Over the past twenty years, market experts have observed that October tends to be the month of the year with the greatest volatility. Companies traded on the stock market tend to see the sharpest jumps and steepest drops in share value during the month of October.Some of the global economy’s most traumatic events have occurred during the tenth month of the year; from the Crash of 1929 that ushered in the Great Depression to 1987’s ‘Black Monday’, generation-defining market drops seem to be concentrated in October.When one calculates the standard deviation of daily share price gyrations since the Dow Jones Industrial Index (USA 30 - Wall Street) was created in 1896, it can be shown that volatility for the index is 38% higher than average in October. Another method of calculating monthly ups and downs on the stock market is the VIX Volatility Index (CBOE Volatility Index Futures), often referred to as the ‘Fear Index’. The VIX uses the same method used to calculate options valuations to predict expected market volatility on the S&P 500 (USA 500) for a given month. The VIX hit its record high in October 2008, during the height of the global financial crisis. Furthermore, since 1928, the S&P 500 has seen an average 8.30% difference between its closing high and low in October.In recent years, predictions of market volatility have consistently been borne out. In October of 2020, global tech giants Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) both posted jumps in share value by over 10% while the STOXX Europe 50 index fell by 10%. The preceding October, the price of Natural Gas (NG) rose by over 25% over the course of the month. In October of 2018, both NASDAQ (NDAQ) and Oil (CL) experienced double-digit drops.Market watchers have repeatedly tried to formulate explanations for October’s reliable tumultuousness. Some theorise that the U.S. government could be influencing the market, as its fiscal year ends on October 1st, and the incoming Chairman of the Federal Reserve is announced every four years in October. Others attribute market volatility to traders’ lifestyles, as many return from their summer vacations after Labor Day and begin to make serious trades, leading to a peak in October. Further explanations connect this yearly phenomenon to mutual funds making fiscal year-end trades before Halloween, to third-quarter earnings reports, or to the U.S. election cycle. However, according to some economists, the most likely explanation is more mundane. October’s volatility may simply be the result of an underlying seasonal business cycle that tends to end in the early autumn. According to Prof. Terry Marsh of UC, Berkeley, there is a high probability that the market jumps and falls that tend to characterise the tenth month of the year could just be a data fluke, without any compelling causative factors. In conclusion, although October’s market volatility has come to be an expected seasonal occurrence in stock trading, traders may wish to stay wary of any convenient explanations for the phenomenon when making their buying and selling decisions.

Neutral

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Wall Street’s fear gauge closes at highest level ever, surpassing even financial crisis peak(Mar 16 2020)

Neutral

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Wall Street’s fear gauge closes at highest level ever, surpassing even financial crisis peak(Mar 16 2020)

A measure of fear in stocks just topped the levels during the financial crisis more than a decade ago.The Cboe Volatility Index, known as the VIX, surged nearly 25 points, or almost 43%, to close at a record high of 82.69, surpassing the peak level of 80.74 on Nov. 21 2008. The VIX, which tracks the 30-day implied volatility of the S&P 500, more than doubled in March alone. The index looks at prices of options on the S&P 500 to track the level of fear on Wall Street.“It’s now apparent that we’re in the depths of the Covid-19 financial crisis of 2020, with much left to be written,” Jon Hill, BMO’s rates strategist, said in a note on Monday.Stocks suffered a brutal sell-off Monday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average tanking nearly 3,000 points, posting its worst day since the “Black Monday” market crash in 1987. The S&P 500 dropped 12%, — hitting its lowest level since December 2018.Investors have been dumping stocks amid intensifying fears that the fast-spreading coronavirus would disrupt global supply chains and damage the world economy significantly. The market took a turn for the worse right before Monday’s close after President Donald Trump said the worst of the outbreak could last until August. He also said the U.S. “may be” heading into a recession.Part of the reason for this level of volatility is because there’s so much uncertainty around the length of the outbreak and its economic impact, according to Bill Miller, founder of Miller Value Partners.“It reflects the uncertainty and potential impact of that range of outcomes,” Miller said in a note Monday. “When the market thinks the authorities don’t get it ... the market reflects that immediately. When it believes proactive measures are being taken — Trump’s remarks [Friday] — that is quickly evident in the market’s reaction.”Trump on Friday declared a national emergency and detailed plans to battle the outbreak, including ramped-up testing.Monday’s bloodbath came even after the Federal Reserve’s emergency move to ease lending aggressively. The central bank on Sunday shockingly cut rates by 125 basis points to a target range of 0% to 0.25% and launched a massive $700 billion quantitative easing program to offset the negative impact from the coronavirus.

Neutral

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Fear Gauge Jumps to Highest Level Since Financial Crisis(March 9, 2020)

Neutral

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Fear Gauge Jumps to Highest Level Since Financial Crisis(March 9, 2020)

Investors are gearing up for a prolonged period of volatility after two of the most punishing weeks for U.S. stocks in recent memory.The 11-year bull market is facing one of its biggest tests yet, rocked by the spreading coronavirus and falling oil prices. The market tumult has sent the S&P 500 down 18.9% from its record through Monday.Many investors are expecting the turmoil to continue.The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, jumped to about 62 in trading Monday, its highest intraday level since 2008 during the financial crisis, according to Dow Jones Market Data. It closed a 54.46, its highest settle value since 2009. The gauge is based on options prices on the S&P 500 and tends to rise when markets are falling.The rise in the VIX coincides with heavy selling in the stock market early Monday, continuing a painful stretch on Wall Street as falling oil prices weighed on markets. Trading was halted shortly after the opening bell as the S&P 500 lost 7.6%, its biggest one-day decline since Dec. 1, 2008.The VIX has jumped higher recently after a period of calm that had brought major U.S. indexes to fresh records in February.That changed abruptly, and traders have rapidly rejiggered their outlooks for how long the uncertainty in markets can persist. Futures tracking the VIX from March to September of this year have also lurched higher, FactSet data show. It is a sign that many are bracing for the turbulence to last for months and are trying to hedge for even bigger falls in the stock market.“The volatility market is telling us that investors are panicked and disoriented,” said Matt Rowe, chief investment officer at Headwaters Volatility. “Investors are definitely pricing in a protracted period of high realized volatility.”Prior bursts of market volatility can offer clues.UBS Group AG analyzed 27 cases since 1990 when the VIX jumped above 30 (with at least a one-month gap from the previous case). The data show that those events persist an average of 58 days and can range up to 312 days. The S&P 500 has fallen anywhere from 5% to 20% in those periods, according to UBS.“High volatility markets can linger,” wrote Stuart Kaiser, a strategist at UBS Group in a note to clients on Monday. “The market is preparing for a longer period of uncertainty.”

Neutral

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Goldman Sachs: The economy needs to slow down to avoid a ‘dangerous overheating’ (Nov 5 2018)

Neutral

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Goldman Sachs: The economy needs to slow down to avoid a ‘dangerous overheating’ (Nov 5 2018)

A thriving labor market is part of a continuing economic boom that will have to slow down or it eventually will cause trouble, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis.Nonfarm payrolls rose by 250,000 in October and the unemployment rate held at a 49-year low of 3.7 percent, according to Labor Department data released Friday. On top of that, average hourly earnings rose 3.1 percent from the same period a year ago, the fastest pace during the post-Great Recession recovery.While that’s all good news, concerns are now rising about the pace of gains.The Federal Reserve estimates that the natural rate of unemployment is around 4.5 percent, which Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist, calls “broadly reasonable.” Looking down the road, Goldman sees unemployment falling to 3 percent by early 2020 and wage growth to hit the 3.25 percent to 3.5 percent range over the next year or so.“So the economy really needs to slow to avoid a dangerous overheating,” Hatzius said in a note that pointed out some signs are emerging of a cooling.What matters next is how the data feed into the broader growth picture.Hatzius said inflation “is on track for a meaningful overshoot” of the Fed’s 2 percent mandated target, up to 2.3 percent, which would be “within the Fed’s likely comfort zone. But we see the risks to this forecast as tilted to a bigger increase.”Those higher inflation risks are coming from the gains being documented in the labor market, as well as tariffs that are raising the cost of imports, the note said.“Labor market tightness is moving to levels rarely seen in postwar history at the national level, and our analysis of city-level data suggests that such extreme readings typically push inflation notably, not just slightly, higher,” Hatzius said.The Fed has been responding to the pickup in inflation expectations by raising rates and indicating that it will continue to do so through 2019. In fact, Goldman says the central bank will have to be even more aggressive than the market thinks. The firm is forecasting five more quarter-point rate hikes through early 2020, which would be two more than traders are pricing, and said risks to that forecast also are “a little tilted to the upside.”The Fed meets Wednesday and Thursday and is not expected to take any action on the benchmark funds rate, which is set in a range between 2 percent and 2.25 percent. Markets are currently pricing in a December move, followed by two more in 2019.Policymakers may choose to tip off the next rate and could include language in the post-meeting statement to indicate where they think growth is heading and how that figures into longer-range actions. Central bank officials also may address the recent spate of market volatility.

Neutral

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Wall Street Conflicts Make Analysts' Calls Suspect(2000-06-30)

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Wall Street Conflicts Make Analysts' Calls Suspect(2000-06-30)

Salomon on BoardIn April 1998 San Antonio-based SBC hired Salomon to advise it on its plans to acquire Ameritech Corp., another former Baby Bell, based in Chicago. Kahan says SBC's decision to retain Salomon for the Ameritech acquisition, which it announced that May, was not connected to Grubman's comments. Salomon earned $33 million on the SBC/Ameritech deal, which closed in October 1999.Grubman, who did not return phone calls seeking comment for this story, covers 34 companies. He has ``buy'' recommendations on all but three. Last November, Grubman raised his rating on AT&T Corp. to ``buy'' from ``neutral.'' Rival analysts suggested that Grubman had to be nice to AT&T so that Salomon could win a role in the largest U.S. IPO ever: the $10.6-billion sale in April of a so-called tracking stock in AT&T's wireless unit. AT&T did, in fact, name Salomon, Goldman, Sachs & Co. and Merrill Lynch & Co. to manage the underwriting.In May, Grubman praised WorldCom Inc. for first-quarter results that put the company far and away at the top of the industry. The glowing report came just at the time Salomon was comanaging a $5 billion sale of bonds for the telecommunications company. Asked to comment on these developments, a Salomon spokesperson said, ``We as a firm do objective research.''Analyst MarketersIt can't be easy for analysts with such extensive access to keep their dual duties separate. ``They're trying to be analysts, but at the same time they're marketers for the company,'' says Kent Womack, a finance professor at Dartmouth College. Because of that, opinions generally are more biased than they used to be, Womack says.Meeker made her name with a 300-page report in 1995 that hailed the dawn of the Internet age. She has since turned corporate finance on its head by valuing companies on their potential rather than their past. The upshot: start-ups now routinely seek her backing. Morgan Stanley has underwritten such IPOs as Priceline.com Inc., HomeGrocer.com Inc., Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Inc., Ask Jeeves Inc. and Drugstore.com. Inc.Forever BullishDubbed Queen of the Internet, Meeker has been consistently bullish about her subjects. She has recommendations of ``outperform'' (read ``buy'') on all but two of 20 companies she covers; she's ``neutral'' on VeriSign Inc., a maker of Internet security software, and Electronic Arts Inc., a designer of interactive entertainment software.Morgan Stanley managed underwritings on 14 of the IPOs for these companies and comanaged another. Says a Morgan Stanley spokesperson, ``Long before the IPO boom, we erected a strict system of Chinese wall separations between the research and banking functions, and it still serves us well today.''The schmoozing and selling an analyst must do these days takes time away from doing research. That, in turn, reinforces a researcher's dependence on spoon-fed information from the companies. Junior analysts right out of college or business school often crunch the numbers. ``It's private-label research,'' says Ryan, the former Bear Stearns analyst. ``You just slap your name on it. Even I did that.''Ryan says Bear Stearns expects analysts to make 150 calls per month to clients, mostly institutional investors, to update them on companies they follow and to pitch stocks. A survey of 2,181 analysts at 102 securities firms by Tempest Consultants found analysts spent 40 percent of their time doing fundamental research in 1999. The analysts expect to spend less time this year -- 36 percent -- on research and more time on selling stocks.SEC ConcernAnalysts' conflicts of interest have worried Securities and Exchange Commission chairman Arthur Levitt Jr. for some time. In speeches in April and October of 1999, the stock market's top regulator complained that analysts all seem to have graduated from the Lake Woebegone School of Securities Analysis: the one that boasts that all stocks are above average.Levitt warned that analysts were protecting business relationships at the cost of fair analysis. ``I worry that investors hear from too many analysts who may be just a bit too eager to report that what looks like a frog is really a prince,'' he said in April. ``Sometimes a frog is just a frog.''Analyst conflicts aren't new. Wall Street is for bulls, and nobody in a firm likes to hear an analyst say sell. Investors have learned that a ``hold'' recommendation is really a warning to sell the stock. Still, researchers used to be thought of as people who visited companies, kicked some tires and drew independent conclusions.That started to change after 1975, when brokerage firms could no longer fix commissions and Wall Street started to make more money from new stock and bond sales and mergers. The stakes have soared since: The top 25 investment banks handled $68.9 billion in U.S. initial public offerings during 1999, up from $4.5 billion a decade earlier. The value of mergers and acquisitions stood at $1.6 trillion, 11 times the amount for 1990.CampaigningBig-name analysts always have been a magnet for new business. That's why securities firms campaign each year to get money managers to vote for their analysts when Institutional Investor magazine picks the top research talent. Now the stars are even more important as the returns from investment banking and mergers businesses increase.Consider the case of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc., based in Tarrytown, New York. The company shifted its business to Merrill Lynch, largely because biotechnology analyst Eric Hecht had moved there three years ago from Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. Morgan Stanley handled the company's last stock sale in 1995. Regeneron's chief financial officer, Murray Goldberg, says: ``A bank is basically selling a company's stock to its customers. It can only do that if the analyst supports it. You need an analyst who understands your industry and your company and who has enthusiasm for the company.''Biotech BoosterHecht, 40, filled the bill. A medical doctor who ranked third in his category in Institutional Investor's latest poll published in October, he had long been a biotech booster. Better yet, he liked Regeneron even though it hasn't made a cent in the 12 years it's been developing drugs to treat obesity, arthritis, cancer and other diseases.On Feb. 23, when he recommended Regeneron shares as a ``long-term buy,'' Hecht was the only analyst covering the company. One was enough: Regeneron's stock price, which had crawled along the floor at less than 10 for most of 1999, jumped 75 percent the day Hecht's report came out and reached an all-time high of 57 3/8 six days later.No PreconditionRegeneron moved quickly to take advantage. Goldberg says that a week after the report came out, Regeneron met with underwriters and hired Merrill to lead the deal. On March 6, it registered the sale with the SEC. The company sold 2.6 million shares on March 29 to raise $77.4 million. Goldberg says the bullish coverage was not a precondition for Merrill to win the business.The preponderance of glowing research reports coming from Wall Street has made it increasingly difficult for investors to discern the truth. Stock trader Fiascone, for one, relied on favorable reports on MicroStrategy from firms like Friedman, Billings, Ramsey. That firm had helped take MicroStrategy public in June 1998 and comanaged a $54 million secondary issue in February 1999. FBR was also in on another sale of 4 million shares being planned for March.Michael Saylor, who started MicroStrategy in 1989, was never shy about his company's mission. He boasted that his firm would purge ignorance from the planet with data-mining software that could tell companies who was buying what where. Managerial and personal quirks like a mandatory annual Caribbean cruise for the staff (no spouses allowed) and lavish parties at places like Washington's Corcoran Gallery lifted the company's profile.After MicroStrategy went public at 12, its prospects looked good. The company's client roster included big names like General Electric Co. and Est,e Lauder Cos. Analysts loved the stock, which rose to 150 in late November 1999. If anyone saw trouble, they didn't admit it.

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Wall Street Conflicts Make Analysts' Calls Suspect(Jun.30.2000)

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Wall Street Conflicts Make Analysts' Calls Suspect(Jun.30.2000)

Stock trader Marty Fiascone says he's not normally a sore sport. Yet one trade continues to irk him.In March, he lost $70,000 of his own money when the shares of MicroStrategy Inc., an Internet software company, tanked. Fiascone, a managing director at Stafford Trading in Chicago, insists securities analysts knew MicroStrategy would restate its books to conform with standard accounting practices and that its earnings and stock price would suffer.Rather than alert him, the analysts kept urging him to buy shares, he says. On March 20, MicroStrategy did announce the accounting change. The stock plummeted 62 percent to 86 3/4 that day. Yesterday, it closed at 32 5/8.``They have no credibility,'' Fiascone says, getting angrier at the analyst corps with each breath. ``They should be exposed for what they are. They're used-car salesmen.''Fiascone isn't alone. Many investors these days complain that stocks they own fall precipitously without a warning from the analysts who persuaded them to buy the shares in the first place.Palley-Needelman Asset Management, a San Diego money manager, says it lost almost $10 million on its UnumProvident Corp. shares last year because it believed analysts who kept recommending the company in the face of evidence that its disability insurance business was deteriorating. Palley-Needelman sold the stock in December.P&G FallsMolly Guenther, who oversees $220 million in investments at SunTrust Banks in Atlanta, had about 4 percent of her customers' money in Procter & Gamble Co. stock on March 7. That day, the consumer-products giant said its earnings would fall short of analysts' estimates. The shares tumbled 30 percent.Guenther says she had no idea something was awry. Many of her clients were unaware of P&G's problems until they got their quarterly reports -- and then started calling her. ``It's one thing to lose money in an aggressive, speculative investment, but for a company like P&G to have a drop like that is very upsetting to them,'' she says.Why didn't Wall Street pros issue warnings before the routs? Well, why would they? Analysts are more rainmakers than researchers these days. They're paid to be positive: Their fawning research reports help their firms win and keep investment-banking clients -- and keep the brokerage machine oiled.The Skinny``An analyst is just a banker who writes reports,'' says Stephen Balog, former research director at Lehman Brothers and Furman Selz, who left the latter firm after ING Groep bought it in1997. ``No one makes a pretense that it's independent.''Analysts would sooner stop covering a company than recommend selling its stock. Of 28,000 analyst recommendations on 6,700 companies in the U.S. and Canada, less than 1 percent are ``sells'' or ``strong sells,'' according to First Call/Thomson Financial, which tracks ratings. By contrast, one-third of the ratings are ``strong buys,'' another third are ``buys'' and almost all the rest are ``holds.''The ratio hasn't changed since First Call started to keep count five years ago. It's not likely to change as long as analysts' pay -- $2 million to $3 million annually for the top-ranked names and as much as $15 million for the superstars -- is linked to how much business they bring to their firms.At Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Inc., for instance, analysts get quarterly bonuses from the investment-banking budget. Tom Brown, chief executive of Second Curve Capital, a hedge fund, says that when he was a banking analyst at DLJ, an analyst who brought in, say, a midsize bank with assets of about $10 billion as a potential merger candidate could earn a $250,000 bonus if the merger came about. A DLJ spokesperson says the bank doesn't comment on compensation.Small PrintAnalysts must disclose their firm's relationship with companies covered, and they usually do it at the end of a report, in tiny type that's easily overlooked.The pressure from the top of the firm for buy recommendations can put analysts through the wringer. Sean Ryan, a former banking analyst at Bear Stearns Cos., says he recommended Net.Bank Inc., an Internet bank based in Alpharetta, Ga., even though he thought it was a crummy company. ``I put a `buy' on it because they paid for it,'' says Ryan.Bear Stearns underwrote two stock offerings and one subordinated debt sale for the company in the first half of 1999, helping it raise $307 million. Morgan Keegan, an investment bank in Memphis, Tennessee, that managed the bank's initial public offering in 1997, had downgraded the stock a year earlier.Ryan then called a few customers -- some who paid Bear Stearns a lot in trading commissions -- and told them what he really thought. ``I said, We just launched coverage on Net.Bank because they bought it fair and square with two offerings,''' he says. ``Unless money is burning a hole in your pocket, there isn't any reason to own it.''' Net.Bank traded at 12 3/16 yesterday, down from a high of 83 in April 1999.Censored?The analyst says he left Bear Stearns in January to form Byrne Ryan & Co., a brokerage that promised unbiased research. (It closed in May, and Ryan joined Banc of America Securities in June.) Ryan alleges that Bear Stearns censored his tough reports on First Union Corp., then refused to let him write about the bank.ear Stearns disputes Ryan's version of events. ``Bear Stearns stands by the quality and integrity of our research,'' the firm said in a written statement. ``Our analysts are encouraged and expected to maintain their independence and provide the best possible research product to our clients. Since his departure from Bear Stearns, Sean Ryan has made disparaging comments about the Bear Stearns research department in an effort to generate publicity for his latest business venture. The comments are the same ones he has made before and, as in the past, are totally inaccurate.''Comment, PleaseMany analysts routinely send drafts of their research reports to the companies being covered for comment and tweaking. ``The way the game is played is that we want to make money for our clients,'' Richard Leggett, head of research at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co., a small investment bank in Arlington, Va., said at a conference in late March. ``So if a company guides us lower in our earnings estimates and then the company blows out the estimate, I look good, the company looks good,'' he said. ``We all win.'' Except, of course, for the investors who took the analysts' advice at face value.Headhunters know the game. The first question they ask about an analyst they might hire is whether the analyst is investment-banker friendly, says Balog. That is, does the researcher bring in deals, or if a bank does a mediocre deal, will the researcher look the other way?Today's star analysts are Jack Grubman, 46, of Salomon Smith Barney and Mary Meeker, 40, of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. These people are much more than stock pickers.In February 1998 executives at SBC Communications Inc., pondering an acquisition, invited Grubman to a strategy session in Arizona and asked for his overview of the industry and his opinion of where it was heading.``He confirmed the strategy we were working on,'' says James Kahan, SBC's senior executive vice president of corporate development, who adds that the company didn't specifically discuss possible acquisition targets. ``We valued his judgment because of his experience and knowledge.''

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

S&P 500 Slides Into Death Cross After 13% Drop From January Peak(2022년 3월 15일)

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

S&P 500 Slides Into Death Cross After 13% Drop From January Peak(2022년 3월 15일)

The S&P 500 Index entered a “death cross” technical pattern on Monday for the first time since March 2020, becoming the last major U.S. stock-market index to fall into the bearish formation this year.The chart pattern appears when an index’s short-term 50-day moving average crosses below its longer-term 200-day moving average, and it has at times presaged further near-term weakness. It occurred in November 1999 during the peak of the dot-com era, in October 2000 after that bubble burst and again in December 2007 ahead of the global financial crisis.But historically, the death cross pattern has been a lagging indicator, meaning that by the time it appears the S&P 500 typically is already in or nearing a double-digit decline. Indeed, the S&P entered a death cross on March 30, 2020, when global markets were battered by the pandemic, but it actually bottomed seven days earlier on March 23.“Over the past decade, a death cross certainly hasn’t been ominous,” Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at technical-analysis service All Star Charts, said in a phone interview. “Most corrections since then have been short-lived, so by the time the two moving averages cross over each other, the damage is done. If the bottom isn’t in place, it’s getting close.”The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index entered a death cross last month, while the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average formed one earlier this month.Prior to Monday, the S&P 500 had formed the pattern 25 times since 1970, according Delwiche. The index’s median returns over the next one, three and 12 months were 1.4%, 4.5% and 11.4%, respectively. The S&P 500 averaged a drawdown of 13.6% from its peak in those occurrences. In this case it has already shed 13% since closing at a record on Jan. 3.Still, technical analysts aren’t convinced the equities selloff is over yet. There has been a lack of a “breadth thrust,” where advancing stocks overwhelm declining ones. And then there’s inflation, which keeps rising, and the Fed, which is getting ready to raise interest rates to curb it.“There are reasons to be concerned right now, but a death cross isn’t one of them,” Delwiche added. “Until we see some breadth thrusts, we shouldn’t trust these rally attempts. We’re in one of those periods where stocks need to correct and pullback.”

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Nasdaq reaches new record high, 15 years after dotcom tech surge(Apr.23.2015)

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Nasdaq reaches new record high, 15 years after dotcom tech surge(Apr.23.2015)

The Nasdaq index reached a record high on Thursday, topping a record set 15 years ago during the height of the dotcom tech bubble.The index had risen as much as 25 points, or 0.5%, to 5,060.14 by early afternoon, topping its all-time closing high of 5,048.62 on March 10, 2000. It ended the day at 5,056.06, up 0.41%.The Dow Jones and S&P have recorded dozens of new highs since the end of the recession. While the Nasdaq has come close to topping its former levels until Thursday, it had always fallen short.The index was the world’s first electronic stock exchange and has become the traditional home of many of tech’s biggest companies. Amazon, Apple, Cisco, Facebook, Google, Intel and Microsoft are all traded on the Nasdaq.But in recent years it has diversified its portfolio of companies, and now includes high-flying biotech stocks including Amgen and Gilead Sciences. The shift may have broadened Nasdaq’s appeal, but it is still heavily weighted to the fortunes of the tech sector. Apple, the world’s most valuable company, is Nasdaq’s largest component, and its record-breaking share price run has helped propel Nasdaq’s rise.It has taken Nasdaq 15-years to recover from the last big technology crash. On March 10, 2000, the Nasdaq Composite index closed at a record of 5,048.62, up 24% since the beginning of the year, and capping an amazing decade in which it skyrocketed over 1,300%.Then the dotcom bubble burst. Nasdaq lost half its value in 2001 and reached an all-time low of 1,108.49 in October 2002.This time, it’s different. At least according to some. Brian Jacobsen, chief portfolio strategist at Wells Fargo, predicted last month that the Nasdaq would soon reach 6,000. “Valuations are just very reasonable,” he told CNBC. “I think the big thing that is going to drive the market higher is people buying into the idea that the market isn’t going to fall out from underneath them.”Others are less sure. Stephen Massocca, chief investment officer at Wedbush Equity Management, said the rise was being underpinned by monetary policy rather than fundamental value of the companies in the index. “Ultimately what’s driving this is low interest rates and easy money,” he said.Investors have also bid up social media companies to “1999-2000 level”, he said. Massocca said social media stocks were the “Inner Station” – home to the crazed ivory trader Mr Kurtz in Conrad’s Heart of Darkness – at the centre of the story of Nasdaq’s new rise.“I don’t know when it’s going to end but I know how,” said Massocca. He said that when investors start to believe the end is coming for the easy monetary policies in the US, Europe and Japan then there would be a “swift and violent” reaction in the stock markets.Worries about a tech bubble have been growing as a new generation of tech companies have attracted sky high valuations. Uber, the taxi app comp[any, is now valued at $41bn, Snapchat, the ephemeral messaging service, is valued at $15bn.Many industry leaders have raised concerns about a new asset bubble. Last month billionaire Mark Cuban, who made a fortune in the last tech boom, warned against the current appetite for tech.“If we thought it was stupid to invest in public internet websites that had no chance of succeeding back then, it’s worse today,” he wrote in a blogpost.

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Stocks dive on bail-out rejection(30. Sept.2008)

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Stocks dive on bail-out rejection(30. Sept.2008)

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Credit panic hits historic levels since Pearl Harbor(2008.sept. 18)

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Credit panic hits historic levels since Pearl Harbor(2008.sept. 18)

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Day of reckoning on Wall Street(2008.sept.16)

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Day of reckoning on Wall Street(2008.sept.16)

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

1999 Goes Into the Record Book on Wall Street(Jan. 1, 2000)

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

1999 Goes Into the Record Book on Wall Street(Jan. 1, 2000)

Wall Street ended the millennium with an appropriate flourish on Friday, as major stock indexes closed at record highs amid signs that the feared Y2K bug was a no-show.But investors worldwide had basically been saying as much for months: The spectacular 1999 gains in equity markets from New York to Athens to Singapore were a strong vote not only for a smooth transition to the new millennium, but also for a booming global economy in the new year.Technology stocks, of course, were the driving force in the U.S. market in ’99. Ravenous demand by large and small investors alike for shares of semiconductor, software, Internet and telecommunications issues drove the Nasdaq composite index up 85.6% for the year, the greatest calendar-year advance of any major stock index in U.S. history.The previous record: The Dow Jones industrial average’s 81.7% surge in 1915.In a shortened trading session on Friday, while both the Nasdaq index and the Dow ended at new highs, the 28-year-old Nasdaq again showed the 103-year-old Dow who’s in charge now: Nasdaq jumped 32.44 points, or 0.8%, to 4,069.31, while the Dow rose half as much in percentage terms, adding 44.26 points to 11,497.12.Still, the blue-chip Dow’s 1999 advance of 25.2% beat the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index’s gain of 19.5%, thanks in part to Dow Jones & Co.’s decision to take a page out of Nasdaq’s book and add tech giants Intel Corp. and Microsoft Corp. to the 30-stock index on Nov. 1.Microsoft has since zoomed 26%; Intel has risen 8%.Many smaller technology stocks also have been red-hot in recent months, a factor in pushing the Russell 2,000 small-stock index this week to its first series of record closes since April 1998.On Friday, the Russell jumped 1.6% to a new high of 504.75.Some traders said that suggested bargain-hunters were snapping up depressed smaller stocks, hoping for a “January effect” bounce--a surge in shares that had been beaten down at year-end by tax-related selling.But that kind of bargain-hunting would have to be dramatic to bring many U.S. stocks into the bull market that tech stocks have enjoyed over the last year in particular.Indeed, a question raised over and over on Wall Street in 1999 was: Whose bull market is this, anyway?On Nasdaq, for example, nearly half of that market’s 5,000-some stocks actually declined in price in 1999, even as the Nasdaq composite index zoomed.A major problem for many stocks, though obviously not the tech sector, was the ongoing rise in interest rates. The Federal Reserve raised short-term rates three times during the year (in June, August and November), citing concerns that the U.S. economy’s tremendous growth rate might boost inflationary pressures.That made for sheer misery in the bond market: Bond values plummeted as the yield on the bellwether 30-year Treasury bond soared, closing 1999 at 6.48%, highest since late 1997 and up from 5.09% at the end of 1998.On a total return basis--counting interest earned, then subtracting the net loss in principal value--the Vanguard Long-Term Treasury bond mutual fund lost 8.1% for the year.Who could blame investors who gave up on bonds altogether and joined the tech-stock stampede?Interest rates also rose across Europe and in parts of East Asia as the global economic recovery gained steam.Higher rates, as expected, wreaked havoc with traditionally interest rate-sensitive stock groups, including banks, insurance companies, home builders and utilities.The Dow Jones utility stock index slumped 9.3% for the year. The Nasdaq bank stock index slid 8%.Assuming the Y2K computer bug remains only an annoyance, at worst, to the world economy, many experts believe the Fed is poised to tighten credit further in 2000, probably as early as February.But would that matter to the roaring tech and telecom sectors, even with stock price-to-earnings ratios at levels never before seen in the modern market?Though many investors may have already forgotten, the tech sector last summer demonstrated just how much downside there can be in richly valued stocks.Many Internet-related stocks, after peaking last spring, fell 50% or more by early August, wiping out billions in market value and panicking many investors into selling--at exactly the wrong time, in many cases.The Net sector then turned on a dime and roared again in late summer and into autumn. For the year, the Interactive Week Internet stock index soared 168.3%.With the heated action in many tech issues worldwide over the last two months, analysts have run out of superlatives to describe the phenomenon.The cult stocks of the end of one millennium--and the beginning of another--include wireless technology titan Qualcomm in the United States, consumer electronics giant Sony Corp. in Japan, cellular phone leader Nokia in Finland and Internet content company China.com in Hong Kong.The market’s bulls say there’s a fundamental basis for these stocks’ gains: technology is the future, after all; and many of these companies unquestionably boast the best growth prospects of any businesses on Earth.The market’s bears say this is like any other investment mania in history, only worse. It can only end in a crash of stock values, they say--at least for the tech sector, and possibly for the broader market.If that happens, it will be brought to the world in living color on the largest video screen in the world: Nasdaq’s newly opened MarketSite Tower in the heart of New York’s Times Square.

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Tech Stocks Extend Slide; Nasdaq Ends 3.7% Lower(Sept. 18, 2001)

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Tech Stocks Extend Slide; Nasdaq Ends 3.7% Lower(Sept. 18, 2001)

Technology stocks extended their losses Thursday as investors continued to assess the economic fallout from last week's terrorist attacks.The Nasdaq Composite fell 56.87, or 3.7%, to finish at 1470.93, after losing 1.8% Wednesday. Morgan Stanley's High Tech Index shed 16.57 to 369.01 and the Dow Jones Internet Index lost 2.43 to 40.71.On Capitol Hill, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress the terrorist attacks had disrupted the business activity in a number of ways, including a drop in consumer spending and travel and the stock market's four-day shutdown last week (see article). But Mr. Greenspan also said, "I am confident that we will recover and prosper as we have in the past."Software stocks continued to tumble as investors worried that the terrorist attacks would hamper companies ability to close sales in the final weeks of the September quarter."All software is down. The sector is definitely under pressure," John Rizzuto, software analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston Corp., said.PeopleSoft slipped 75 cents to $19.99, Siebel Systems shares lost $1.01 to $14, and CheckPoint Software fell $1.52 to $25.41, all on the Nasdaq Stock Market.Cadence Design Systems dropped 69 cents to $16.23 on the New York Stock Exchange. John O. Barr, an analyst with Robertson Stephens cut his earnings and revenue estimates for the integrated-circuit design software provider amid continued weakness in information-technology spending. Mr. Barr now expects third-quarter earnings of 19 cents a share on revenue of $347.4 million, below his previous estimates.SAP fell 50 cents to $23 on the Big Board. The German software giant said Thursday it will meet its earnings expectations for the first nine months of 2001, calming investors' jitters, but the German software giant left the door open to revise its full-year targets (see article).EMC added 10 cents to $12.70 on the Big Board. The data-storage giant said Thursday it has acquired closely held Luminate Software for about $50 million in cash. Luminate develops performance-monitoring software for storage-intensive applications and operating environments.Microsoft slid $3.11 to $50.76 on Nasdaq. The software giant called the remedies sought by the Justice Department in its antitrust case "improper" in its latest court filing, as the company prepares for a meeting next week with the new judge in the case (see article).Meanwhile, Applied Materials and 3Com joined the list of companies announcing job cuts this week. Applied Materials fell $1.63 to $29.49, while 3Com gained 10 cents to $3.79, both on Nasdaq.Chip maker Applied Materials said Thursday it plans to reduce its work force by about 2,000 positions, or 10%. It said it will take an undisclosed restructuring charge in the fiscal fourth quarter ending Oct. 28 (see article).Networking-gear maker 3Com late Wednesday reported a wider-than-expected quarterly loss on a steep slide in revenue. The company also announced it will cut 1,000 more jobs than previously planned (see article).Elsewhere, Leap Wireless International climbed $1.06 to $14.01 on Nasdaq after the wireless Internet company gained some flexibility in its financing agreements with vendors Telefon AB L.M. Ericsson, Lucent Technologies and Nortel Networks by amending covenants relating to capital expenditures and gross revenue.Priceline.com rose 26 cents to $2.29 on Nasdaq. Cheung Kong and Hutchison Whampoa, two shareholders with a total stake of 27% in the Internet travel service, withdrew their request to file a shelf registration, which would have let them sell Priceline shares.

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Taking Stock of the Numbers That Shaped Markets in 2001(From the Wall Street Journal Europe) ( Jan. 4, 2002)

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Taking Stock of the Numbers That Shaped Markets in 2001(From the Wall Street Journal Europe) ( Jan. 4, 2002)

Numbers make the markets go 'round. So any conversation about equities is usually peppered with references to the highs, the lows and the ratios that try to make sense of it all.As markets enter a new trading year, here are data points for Europe and the U.S. that will help investors get through any cocktail conversation that revolves around investing and what happened in 2001.Europe17The Dow Jones Stoxx Index of 600 European blue chips fell 17% in 2001, its worst year since 1990. The index ended the year at 298.73, a long way from 359.79 at the start of 2001.The index was rarely in the black and hit its closing high of 362.47 on Jan. 29. The closing low, 235.90, came at the end of a manic week following the resumption of trading in New York Sept. 17. The Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the U.S. shut down the New York Stock Exchange for four days.The bright spot: Those who invested the first day trading resumed earned 26.6% through the end of the year.11Germany's Neuer Markt, the darling of European indexes in 2000, wasn't so cool only a year later. The exchange for small-company stocks couldn't even average one initial public offering per month -compared with one every other working day in 2000, when 133 companies went public. The last of the year's 11 IPOs came July 24, when init innovation in traffic systems AG raised 59.8 million euros ($54 million).It was a dud year all around for IPOs. The total number of offerings in Europe, the Middle East and Africa collapsed 71% to 183 from 639 a year earlier, according to investment-banking research firm Dealogic CommScan.1,442,000,000That is the value in pounds of shares outstanding in Railtrack PLC, the formerly state-owned railway-network operator that the Labor government put in administration Oct. 8. Its shares haven't traded since.Angry shareholders have banded into a handful of groups and continue to threaten lawsuits in an effort to recover their money.FourUnlike the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank was as slow as molasses in cutting interest rates in 2001. Its 18 members agreed to do so just four times. The repo rate ended the year at 3.25%, down from 4.5% at the start of the year.83.48The euro hit its low against the dollar July 6 when it was valued at just 83.48 U.S. cents. Euro bashers can note with glee that it represented an 11.4% drop in purchasing power from the start of the year, when it was valued at 94.24 cents.It has since made up half those losses; it ended the year at 89.15 cents.14,889,900,000While the ECB did little on the interest-rate front, it was busy overseeing the introduction of euro notes and coins. The 12 national central banks cranked out 14.89 billion banknotes -- some of which they will keep for themselves for emergencies. Each country also minted a total of 51,611,000,000 coins. Taken together, that is about 636 billion euros in cash making its way into the hands of 306 million Europeans.674,157,863While most exchanges across Europe reported sizable drops in trading volume, markets listing futures and options contracts were busier than ever. Eurex, the Swiss-German derivatives exchange, retained its title as the world's largest exchange with a 48% jump in the number of contracts traded, to 674,157,863.The U.S.FourWall Street's most harrowing stretch was four days when nothing traded at all.The Sept. 11 terrorist attacks transformed downtown Manhattan into a disaster zone and prompted a four-day halt in U.S. stock trading, the longest such stoppage since the Great Depression. Fearful of a market collapse when trading resumed, Wall Street rushed to set aside many longstanding rules and rivalries -- with mixed success. For example, federal regulators took the unusual step of relaxing nearly 20-year-old restrictions on when and how corporations can repurchase their own stock. The move unleashed share-repurchase announcements from hundreds of companies, but it didn't stop the Dow industrials from staging the biggest one-day point drop ever when trading picked up on Sept. 17.307,509,225,893The New York Stock Exchange certainly had lots of reasons to feel magnanimous.More than a quarter-trillion of them. Despite the historic trading halt in September, not to mention a war and a recession, a record 307.51 billion shares changed hands on the Big Board in 2001. That is well above 2000's total volume of 262.5 billion, itself a record high at the time. Way back in 1991, when a different Bush was waging a different war and we stood at the eve of a different recession, total trading volume on the NYSE was a mere 45.3 billion shares.690While the Big Board boomed, the Nasdaq withered. Hard hit by the decline in stock prices and the dearth of initial public offerings, the Nasdaq Stock Market has lost 690 listed companies since the end of 2000, according to data from the Nasdaq Web site. As of mid-December, the Nasdaq reported having 4,044 stocks listed on its Nasdaq National Market and the Nasdaq SmallCap Market, putting it on track to finish the year with its leanest roster since 1983.Although its cachet soared along with the 1990s tech boom, Nasdaq's ranks have been falling since 1997. That is when Nasdaq tightened its listing requirements to exclude any stock that trades below $1 (1.11 euros) for more than 30 days.92Staging an IPO, a glamour event in 1999, became an arduous challenge in 2001.Only 92 companies managed to reach the public markets, compared with 396 in 2000, according to Dealogic. For most of 2001, tight-fisted institutional investors balked at buying new issues, prompting more than 160 companies to scrap their previously filed IPO applications altogether. But business picked up in the fourth quarter with 31 IPOs, or more than a third of the year's total.3,287.71It is little wonder investors lost their stomach for IPOs, with the Dow industrials lurching 3,287.71 points from peak to trough during the year. A particularly unlucky soul who bought a basket of Dow stocks at the May 21 peak and sold at the Sept. 21 nadir would have seen his or her holdings shrink 29%. (Since the lows in September, however, the major stocks indexes have surged on hopes of an economic recovery.)6,447,893,636Not everyone is toasting the year-end rally, however. Judging from levels of short interest, or the number of open bets that stocks will fall, the recent run-up has brought out the bears as well. As of the last count in mid-December, short interest on NYSE-listed stocks rose 2.8% to more than 6.4 billion shares, notching its 10th monthly record in a row. (Some strategists consider increasing short interest to be a positive indicator, because it represents an obligation to buy stocks later on.)54It required 54 pages to list all the unsecured creditors of Enron and its subsidiaries. That is a list to make a short-seller grin.11Enron's stock wasn't the only thing that cratered in 2001: The federal funds interest rate got sliced 11 times, bringing it to levels not seen since the Berlin Wall was in its glory. Hoping in vain to ward off a recession, the Federal Reserve's policy makers chopped interest-rate targets throughout the year, most recently at their Dec. 11 meeting. But the power of the Fed to stimulate the economy was hampered by a bond market that stubbornly refused to let long-term interest rates fall as fast as the Fed committee might have wished.620So where will stocks be this time next year? Pick a number -- the odds are pretty good that you will land somewhere within the gaping 620-point window of forecasts for the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index.Major stock strategists predict that the S&P could settle anywhere from 950 to 1570 at the end of 2002, reflecting vastly different outlooks on the prospects for a quick rebound in the economy and in corporate profits. From its current level of 1148.08, an S&P of 950 would require a drop of 17%. To reach a target of 1570, the S&P would have to rise by 37%.ZeroReality check: Despite their painstaking prognostications, not one of these strategists correctly predicted the severity of the S&P 500's decline in 2001.Year-end forecasts had ranged from 1225 to 1715, all above the S&P's closing price for year-end 2001 of 1148.08.

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Nasdaq Sinks 3.4% As Market Staggers To Dismal Year End(Jan. 1, 2001)

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Nasdaq Sinks 3.4% As Market Staggers To Dismal Year End(Jan. 1, 2001)

Technology stocks retreated Friday, dragging the Nasdaq Composite Index down 3.4% and cementing 2000 as its worst year on record. Blue chips failed to extend a five-day run of gains, leaving the Dow Jones Industrial Average with its poorest one-year performance since 1981.The Nasdaq composite dropped 87.24 to 2470.52, ending the year down 39%. It was the index's worst year since the market measure was created in 1971, surpassing its 1974 drop of 35%.Meanwhile, the industrial average sank 81.91, or 0.8%, to 10786.85, closing down 6.2% for the year -- its first annual loss since 1990.Other major indexes finished lower. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index fell 13.94, or 1%, to 1320.28. The New York Stock Exchange Composite Index sank 3.03 to 656.87, and the Russell 2000 Index of small-capitalization stocks fell 10.50, or 2.1%, to 483.53.Hopes that the market would finish 2000 on a positive note were dashed. The main indexes showed some early strength, but the Nasdaq composite retreated amid declines by the year's hard-hit tech bellwethers, including Cisco Systems , Microsoft , Intel , Yahoo and Dell Computer . The industrial average exhibited a lack of direction for most of the day before sinking in late trading.Internet stocks led the Nasdaq composite lower, with the Dow Jones Composite Internet Index dropping 6.5%. Most other tech shares were weak. The transportation sector got a boost from airline stocks, and retailers also advanced. The S&P retail index rose 1.1% as Dow components Home Depot and Wal-Mart Stores rose.Many on Wall Street are happy to put this year behind them. Technology stocks have been the biggest losers, dragging down Nasdaq composite in contrast with 1999's record surge of nearly 86%. The industrial average rose 25% last year."You have to remember that in 1999 the Nasdaq went into a manic phase," said Larry Wachtel, market strategist at Prudential Securities. "In the year 2000, we unraveled that manic phase. I have a hard time getting out the crying towels. ... We're back to sobriety here."Financial markets are closed Monday, giving investors another three-day weekend to catch their breath.The bond market closed early Friday ahead of the New Year's holiday, with bonds ending mixed . Bond prices posted solid gains in 2000, mostly due to a late-year rally as it became increasingly evident that the U.S. economy was slowing. Government securities are seen as a safe-haven investment during times of economic uncertainty or a stock-market slump. The 10-year note's yield fell more than a full percentage point in 2000 to 5.11% Friday, from 6.43% a year ago.The dollar was lower Friday. It made sharp gains against the yen this year, and also climbed against the euro. The U.S. currency rose 12% against the yen, while the euro dipped 6.4% against the dollar in 2000.Fears that the economy is slowing too quickly, hurting corporate profits as a result, have driven the market's performance in recent months. The tech sector felt little but pain for most of the year as the Internet bubble burst and investors adopted a more cautious stance. Defensive issues, including tobacco, energy, and health-care and pharmaceutical stocks, outperformed the broader market in 2000 amid the uncertainty.Dow component Philip Morris rose 91% this year. The S&P pharmaceutical index jumped 35% in 2000, and Merck gained 38%. Microsoft finished the year down 63%, and fellow tech bellwether Intel lost 28% this year. AT&T dropped 66%, and Internet stocks took a beating, with Yahoo! down 86%.The Dow Jones Composite Internet Index sank 66% for the year and is off 73% from its high. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index lost 18% and is off 58% from its high.The Nasdaq composite closed Friday off 51% from its March 10 high, while the industrial average lost a milder 8% from its high point on Jan. 14. The S&P 500 finished off 10% for the year and down 14% from its high March 24, but the NYSE Composite managed to finish up 1% for the year and off 3.1% from its record close Sept. 1.Alan Ackerman, executive vice president and market strategist at Fahnestock, said investors are weary after the tumultuous year on Wall Street. He said all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve to pull the economy -- and the stock market -- out of its slump. Hopes that the Fed would cut rates in December weren't realized, sending stocks sliding earlier in the month."The future of the market clearly depends on whether the Fed is going to be friendly to the economy," Mr. Ackerman said. "My outlook is cautiously optimistic until we know what the Fed is going to do. The world is in the midst of an economic slowdown, and it needs a catalyst. That catalyst may be the Fed lowering rates one or more times in the next year."Ricky Harrington, a technical analyst a Wachovia Securities, said the prospect that the Fed may cut rates in January, coupled with a bounce from the tech sector's heavy losses, could lift the market early next year. On Dec. 20, the Nasdaq composite hit its lowest close since March 1999 of 2332.78. But the cloudy economic outlook will continue to loom over the market."As for January and the early part of the year, I think there is likely to be a further recovery in the Nasdaq and many of these depressed areas," Mr. Harrington said. "But the year 2001 I think will still be a second bear market year for the Nasdaq. Stocks are still overvalued, and the economy is clearly heading into a slowdown or something worse."Outside the U.S., European markets closed mixed Friday, with Frankfurt's key index rising 1%. In the Asian-Pacific region, markets finished mixed as Tokyo stocks ended down 27% for the year. Year-end window dressing offered some support in the region.

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Morgan Stanley downgrades U.S. Steel, sees limited growth opportunities ahead(Feb 3 2025)

Neutral

US Steel Corp

Morgan Stanley downgrades U.S. Steel, sees limited growth opportunities ahead(Feb 3 2025)

United States Steel is running out of runway for growth, according to Morgan Stanley. The firm downgraded the steel stock to equal weight from overweight on Monday, alongside a $39 per share price target. Morgan Stanley’s forecast implies nearly 6% upside from Friday’s close. Analyst Carlos De Alba said U.S. Steel stock is currently trading right around its target valuation for the company, which leaves little room to run moving forward. “However, we no longer see meaningful upside to our standalone price target. While a deal with Nippon — or another party — may still happen, which is reflected in our $55/[share] bull case, we continue to set our price target on a standalone basis,” the analyst said. More broadly, De Alba said he expects steel prices to rise due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs, but added that those price rises could be kept in check by sluggish demand. The White House over the weekend announced levies on imports from Mexico, China and Canada. The move sparked a global market sell-off. Analysts are mostly positive on the stock. LSEG data shows eight of 12 analysts who cover the stock rate it as a buy or strong buy. U.S. Steel has slipped nearly 20% over the past year. X 1Y mountain United States Steel stock.

Neutral

US Steel Corp

Another Tech Bubble? Maybe Not (April 16, 2012)

Neutral

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Another Tech Bubble? Maybe Not (April 16, 2012)

It's beginning to feel frothy in Silicon Valley. Here are a few numbers:On the first day of its initial public offering LinkedIn was valued at nearly $9 billion; today the social networking site is worth more than $10 billion. Instagram, a company with no profits, no revenue and no plan to make money, was just bought for a cool billion. The buyer was Facebook, a firm in the process of going public.And those values are nothing compared with what Facebook may be worth itself. That company is expected to be valued at between $80 billion and $100 billion after its IPO later this spring.But is this a bubble? Is the considerable exuberance in this part of the world irrational?Here in Silicon Valley you hear some version of this statement all the time: "This is different. I was here in the 1990s and these companies are not Pets.com."Investors and entrepreneurs have been saying this to each other for years, in part because it is true. Facebook generated $1 billion in profit last year. It's still almost doubling its revenue and profit year to year and it's doing all of that with a relatively small workforce.Instagram created a social network of 30 million people with just over a dozen employees. These companies have created ways to connect millions and build enormous audiences incredibly efficiently. That is worth something. The question is, what?Jean-Paul Rodrigue, a professor at Hofstra University, published an influential chart just before the financial bubble burst in 2008. He broke bubbles down into four stages:Steve Blank is a serial entrepreneur in Silicon Valley and an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School. He says we have sailed through the stealth phase of the current technology investment cycle. We are past the point where big investors are aware of the opportunities in mobile and social companies and we're rapidly entering into a period of manic excitement of the next wave of Internet companies.But Blank says not all bubbles are created equal — not all bubbles are bad. "Bubbles built the railroads," he says. "Bubbles built the steel industry." He believes many of the technologies that are attracting so much excitement right now have the potential to change the way we live and how the economy works.That may be. But prices are high enough now that many wonder whether companies like Facebook can justify their own hype. When investors talk about bubbles, typically they end up comparing a company's profits with its share price. The price-to-earnings ratio is a staple of evaluating a stock. ExxonMobil's P/E ratio hovers around 10. That means the company is valued at something like 10 times its annual profit.Apple has a P/E ratio of 17. That's high compared with historical averages, but Apple's earnings have been growing incredibly fast and the company is sitting on $100 billion in cash. And its stock looks positively cheap in comparison with the latest crop of social media companies that are going public.If after Facebook's initial public offering it's valued at more than $100 billion it will have a P/E ratio of 100 to 1. And that's a bargain compared with LinkedIn, which is trading at a ratio of between 800 and 900 to 1. These are bubblicious prices.To justify its projected IPO price to more conventional investors, Facebook will need to double its earnings every year for the next three or four years. Those who sell now may realize windfalls and those who buy have to hope for years of exceptional growth or they will be left holding the bag.But Blank says this may not be bad news for the economy as a whole."Unlike other bubbles — housing bubbles and financial bubbles — nerds don't buy yachts. They seem to reinvest in their own domain," he says.

Neutral

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Why this Time the Tech Bubble is Different(May 4, 2022)

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Why this Time the Tech Bubble is Different(May 4, 2022)

We are in a stock market carnage. Pandemic darling stocks Zoom, Peloton, Carvana, and many other NASDAQ stocks have tumbled from their highs. FAANG + Microsoft stocks have lost close to $1.4 trillion of value due to the market meltdown in April. We are in a “tech bubble” but this time the bubble is different.Going back to 2001The 2000 and 2001 tech bubble was different than what we are seeing now. The early 2000s tech stock bubble happened mainly due to tech stock speculation mania. This was the time when the internet was created. Many visionaries rightfully saw the internet as the most important innovation since the industrial revolution (similar to how Bitcoin is now). Private (venture capital) and public market money poured into these internet companies. Investment banks paid analysts bonuses for pumping up buy ratings of worthless doc com businesses to get more business from these companies. In 2000, at the height of the tech stock boom, NASDAQ IPOs raised $54 billion. This was an all-time high. Between 1995 and 2001, 439 dot-com businesses went public. During the 4th quarter of 1999, an average of $160 million was invested in private tech companies per day. Of course, all good things must come to an end. As you can see below, the speculation mania ended as the NASDAQ reached new highs on March 10th, 2002 (reaching 5048.62 points). The NASDAQ hits its low on October 9th, 2002. This decimated valuations of so many tech companies and bankrupted so many dot com businesses. But of course, from the crash came some of the most valuable companies in the world like Amazon, Alphabet (Google), and Meta (formerly Facebook), which happen to be technology companies.Now Let’s Come Back to 2022If the early 2000s tech bubble was an investor led mania, the 2010s and early 2020s stock market boom is a monetary policy created mania. Zero % interest rates, cheap money, and money printing has been a boon for assets. Just see below growth of financial asset value relative to US GDP (courtesy: St. Louis Fed FRED).Also, shown below is Federal Reserve M2 Money Printing correlated to the US stock market growth (courtesy: Man Yin To | Seeking Alpha Contributor).Easy money and record low interest rates (while the average joe pay high credit card and student loan interest rates) has inflated asset values. Cheap money and low interest rates have made investors searching high return returns. This has led money to flow into commercial real estate, single family homes, tech startups, mortgage backed securities, commercial mortgage backed securities, and the stock market. Also, the rise of passive investing and ETFs (like Vanguard) have made money from individual investors and retirement accounts to flow into blue chip US stocks.Overall, the Fed is stuck in a rock and a hard place. Years of low interest rates and money printing has created the greatest asset bubble in history. Now the world is seeing unpresented inflation. If the Fed raise rates 8–9 times as the Fed has planned, expect a recession and financial markets to collapse. This was probably tolerable in the 70s, early 2000s, and even 2008. But now the US is heavily financialized. So many retirement accounts are going to lose value by almost half. Wall Street does not want the music to stop and the Fed knows this fact. But the Fed also does not want inflation to run amuck. This is also a crucial year for the US given that the country is having its Midterm elections. Majority of Americans disapprove or President Biden’s actions, which signals bad news for the Democratic Party, which holds majority in both the US House of Representatives and Senate. On a recent podcast, Morgan Creek’s capital Mark Yusko mentioned that the we’ll be lucky to have 3 fed rate hikes. I echo Mark’s sentiment. The fed wants to fight inflation while not rocking the boat. In this case, the Fed is going to tread very carefully.Overall, the decade of the 2010s is going to be mainly defied by money printing and the rise of Web 2.0. But we are already seeing the cracks. Tech stocks, including the FAANGs, are in free fall. One of the most respected tech investors, Chase Coleman of Tiger Global, has lost 44% YTD. Cathie Wood’s signature Ark Invest ETF is down nearly 40% YTD. But the worst is yet to come. Food inflation is at an all-time high. We are also seeing many sovereign nations lose faith in the US Dollar and de-dollarization is accelerating. With more rate hikes by the Fed to control inflation expect a harsher reaction from financial markets. I do not have a crystal ball to predict what will happen in the future. But what is known for sure is that global uncertainty and risk will only increase. We are still in for some pain.But with pain comes opportunity. Now is the time to go bargain hunting on some really good investments (as we have mentioned here, here, here, here, and here). After the tech bubble burst, some of the most valuable and important companies like Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Google came from the tech space. This is while useless “dot-com” companies with no sales went bust. Also similar to the last tech bubble, we are witnessing the birth of the new technology and asset class: Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin and crypto are going to create the next wave of finance and decentralized applications. As investors are seeking places to allocate their capital, expect more money to go into crypto. Same can be true for commodities, climate change technology, and emerging market equities. Useless companies that went up thanks to money printing are just going to collapse and go bankrupt. Strong emerging tech companies are going to be the next billion- and trillion-dollar companies. As this “everything bubble” bursts, expect some gems to rise up from the ashes.

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

3 Photos That Help Explain the Frenzy Over Alibaba's IPO(2014년 9월 18일)

Sell

371160

TIGER China Hang Seng TECH

3 Photos That Help Explain the Frenzy Over Alibaba's IPO(2014년 9월 18일)

If you live in China, or perhaps Russia, or are part of the Chinese diaspora, you already know how big a deal Alibaba Group is. And if you're one of the investors clamoring for a piece — any piece — of the giant e-commerce company, there's no doubt you're sold on its prospects.For others, though, who are still trying to wrap their brains around how a Chinese company founded in an apartment — not a Silicon Valley garage — could pull off the world's largest initial public offering, here's some visual help.No, that's not the control room at NORAD. It's a photo from last year of Alibaba's employees watching a live broadcast of transactions on Singles' Day, which celebrates those without a significant other. The day in November has become a huge occasion for e-commerce companies to deluge the Internet with steep discounts.Last year, Alibaba's two main platforms — Taobao Marketplace and Tmall — had sales of about $5.8 billion during the 24-hour period. For some context, sales on Cyber Monday, the busiest online shopping day in the U.S., hit a record of about $2 billion in 2013.Of course, what would you expect, given that the number of Internet users in China — 632 million, according to government data — is about double the total population of the U.S. Meanwhile, a McKinsey & Co. report sees China's e-tailing market growing to as much as $395 billion next year, which is triple the amount in 2011."Because Chinese retail is coming of age in the midst of the digital revolution, its evolution may follow a different — and faster — trajectory than what has occurred in other countries," the report said.Singles' Day also demonstrated Alibaba's logistical prowess: The company said it processed 254 million orders within 24 hours and handled 156 million packages, compared with its daily average of almost 17 million, according to a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing.Pictured here are workers packaging yarn at an office in Qinghe county, about 230 miles from Beijing. The significance?It's rural regions like this that are playing a big role in the growth of Alibaba's platforms. About 4.5 million sellers, or slightly more than half of those hawking their goods on the company's Chinese retail marketplaces, were located outside of China's major cities (also known as tier 1 and 2 cities), according to Alibaba's filing. About 173 million buyers, or 62 percent of those actively making purchases, also reside outside of the big cities. And as more rural residents go digital thanks to lower-priced smartphones from companies such as Xiaomi, Alibaba stands to benefit.As Bloomberg News reporter Lulu Yilun Chen wrote last year, Alibaba has helped people such as Liu Yuguo rake in more than $1.6 million in just two years by selling yarn on Taobao. That enabled the former farmer with a seventh-grade education to buy a four-story office and a BMW X6 sports utility vehicle.In his letter to investors, Alibaba founder Jack Ma said the company's mission is "to make it easy to do business anywhere." And apparently, selling anything, whether that's an "advanced outdoor energy efficiency hot dog trailer" (pictured here, starting at $1,280), a life-size Vladimir Putin wax figure or cherries harvested in Utah.In its SEC filing, Alibaba said more than 170 tons of cherries grown by farmers in the U.S. were sold to Chinese consumers last year through Tmall, in partnership with the Agricultural Trade Office in Shanghai and the U.S. Department of Agriculture. In boasting about its logistical abilities, the company said the cherries were delivered from the tree to the table within 72 hours. Alibaba also cited Chilean blueberries, Alaskan king crab and lobsters from Canada as examples of overseas perishables it has made available to Chinese consumers.It's this dizzying array of products that helps Alibaba reach users outside of China. And with the company focused on brokering transactions into and out of the country, that promises to "enable a new age of border-hopping commerce that bypasses middlemen," Bloomberg Businessweek's Brad Stone wrote last month. Add to that the $21.8 billion Alibaba raised in its IPO, and you have a company capable of becoming the first truly global online marketplace.

Sell

371160

TIGER China Hang Seng TECH

IPO Frenzy: A bubble or the right strategy to enter a booming market?(7 Oct 2024)

Sell

453870

TIGER India Nifty 50

IPO Frenzy: A bubble or the right strategy to enter a booming market?(7 Oct 2024)

The Indian stock market has been on fire recently, with September emerging as one of the busiest months for initial public offerings (IPOs) in the past 14 years. According to the data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on September 20, IPO activity in the country has reached an all-time high, highlighting a significant resurgence of interest in public listings. This surge is not limited to large companies; it encompasses both the mainboard and the small and medium enterprise (SME) segments, showing a diverse appetite for investment opportunities across different market sectors.September alone witnessed over 28 companies making their debut on Dalal Street, split between the mainboard and the SME segments. This number is remarkable, as such an IPO surge has not been seen in over a decade. The sudden resurgence indicates a renewed sense of confidence and eagerness among both companies and investors to participate in the capital markets. It seems that investors are increasingly seeing IPOs as a strategic entry point into a market that is scaling new highs, despite the risks associated with such investments.On the global front, India’s recent IPO activity stands out impressively. The RBI report highlights that India accounted for the highest number of public listings worldwide, capturing a striking 27% share of all IPOs during the first half of the 2023-24 fiscal year.The Role of SME IPOs in driving the surgeThe surge in IPOs has been significantly fueled by the SME segment. The massive oversubscriptions of SME IPOs have attracted considerable attention, turning them into a focal point of the ongoing IPO frenzy. SMEs are increasingly capitalising on investor enthusiasm, with many small businesses using public listings as a way to secure capital for expansion and growth. The enthusiasm seen in the SME space speaks volumes about the expanding scope of opportunities available to retail and institutional investors alike.However, the enthusiasm is not without its risks. The RBI’s report pointed out a potentially concerning trend wherein promoters, particularly in the SME segment, have been using favourable conditions in the primary market to offload their stakes at inflated prices. While this may represent a smart exit strategy for existing shareholders, it raises questions about the long-term value for new investors, especially when the market is already at elevated levels. The risk of overvaluation looms large, with some IPOs potentially being priced higher than what fundamentals would suggest, leading to an overheated market scenario.IPO Strategy: A Double-Edged Sword for InvestorsThe current IPO frenzy is both an opportunity and a cautionary tale for investors. On one hand, IPOs provide a unique chance to get in on the ground floor of promising companies and participate in the economic growth of the country. On the other hand, the possibility of overvaluation and promoters cashing out at high prices can lead to significant losses for new investors if the broader market experiences a correction.For investors considering entering through IPOs, it is critical to evaluate the fundamentals of the companies going public and not get swept up in the hype. The broader market may be at a high, but a sound strategy—focused on due diligence, risk assessment, and a long-term perspective—can help navigate the opportunities and pitfalls of this burgeoning IPO landscape.

Sell

453870

TIGER India Nifty 50

‘Price bubble’ in A.I. stocks will wreck rally, economist David Rosenberg predicts(May 25 2023)

Neutral

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

‘Price bubble’ in A.I. stocks will wreck rally, economist David Rosenberg predicts(May 25 2023)

Investors piling into stocks with artificial intelligence exposure may pay a hefty price.Economist David Rosenberg, a bear known for his contrarian views, believes enthusiasm surrounding AI has become a major distraction from recession risks.“No question that we have a price bubble,” the Rosenberg Research president told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Thursday.According to Rosenberg, the AI surge has striking similarities to the late 1990s dot-com boom —particularly when it comes to the Nasdaq 100 breakout over the past six months.″[This] looks very weird,” said Rosenberg, who served as Merrill Lynch’s chief North American economist from 2002 to 2009. “It’s way overextended.”This week, Nvidia’s blowout quarter helped drive AI excitement to new levels. The chipmaker boosted its yearly forecast after delivering a strong quarterly earnings beat after Wednesday’s market close. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang cited booming demand for its AI chips.Nvidia stock gained more than 24% after the report and is now up 133% over the last six months. AI competitors Alphabet, Microsoft and Palantir are also seeing a stock surge.In a recent note to clients, Rosenberg warned the rally is on borrowed time.“There are breadth measures for the S&P 500 that are the worst since 1999. Just seven mega-caps have accounted for 90% of this year’s price performance,” Rosenberg wrote. “You look at the tech weighting in the S&P 500 and it is up to 27%, where it was heading into 2000 as the dotcom bubble was peaking out and soon to roll over in spectacular fashion.”While mega cap tech outperforms, Rosenberg sees ominous trading activity in banks, consumer discretionary stocks and transports.“They have the highest torque to GDP. They’re down more than 30% from the cycle highs,” Rosenberg said. “They’re actually behaving in the exact same pattern they have going into the past four recessions.”

Neutral

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Wall Street is getting very bullish as stocks hit records. Here’s why that’s worrisome(Nov 15 2019)

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Wall Street is getting very bullish as stocks hit records. Here’s why that’s worrisome(Nov 15 2019)

As the S&P 500 has broken out of its trading range into record highs, euphoria has been growing — fast.Technicians like Stephen Suttmeier at Bank of America Merrill Lynch have been positively giddy recently, noting a bullish rotation into cyclicals, but also to value from growth, high beta from low volatility, cyclicals from defensives and small caps from large caps.It’s not just technicians. Strategists and retail investors are gaga with enthusiasm:1) Barclays says small caps are at an inflection point and poised to outperform: “Headwinds have subsided,” they declare.2) Bank of America also expects the cyclical rally will continue: “We think the stage is set for a restocking-driven recovery in Spring 2020 to extend the cyclical rally.”3) Morgan Stanley also loves the rotation: “We think a secular rotation from Growth to Value is beginning.”Even the average retail investor is getting bulled up. The American Association of Individual Investors’ weekly sentiment survey showed 40.7% of respondents are bullish, the highest levels since May, while only 23.8% are bearish, also near the lowest levels since May.Why is everyone so excited?The combination of a neutral/accommodative Fed and a better global growth outlook for 2020 are key factors in the euphoria, but the other factors are the seasonal strength and a belief that a China deal on tariffs will eventually be signed.Futures were jumping again on Friday as the White House signaled once again that the signing of the first part of the trade deal was close.“Everybody seems to think that FOMO [Fear of Missing Out] will cause institutional players to buy, buy, buy into the end of the year,” Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, told me. “Everyone is saying that the only thing that can throw a wrench in the works is a breakdown in the Phase One [China] negotiations and nobody thinks that will happen (because both sides need some sort of smaller deal),” he wrote to me.Good or bad news?All this euphoria would be great if we were coming off of a big sell-off — but we’re not. The major indexes are at new highs as is the advance/decline line. Put it all together, and the market is clearly overbought.Tony Dwyer, senior managing director and chief market strategist at Cannacord Genuity, thinks investors should be cautious, citing the extreme overbought conditions, increased optimism, low volatility and a smaller number of stocks above their recent 10- and 50-day moving averages. “All four intermediate-term indicators suggest waiting to add exposure,” Dwyer wrote in a recent note.Some things never changeSome astute market observers are not impressed: They say there is nothing new under the sun. Brian Belski, managing director and chief investment strategist at BMO, noted that many on Wall Street are habitually late to the party.“In my almost 30 years on Wall Street, some things never change, namely, people get bullish after the market rallies,” Belski wrote to me.He does believe there is “some froth” as everyone on Wall Street chases performance going into the end of the year.“This does not mean the rally is over,” Belski said. “It just means they are late and undisciplined.”

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Market Bullishness Reaches Extreme Levels: Are Investors Ignoring Warning Signs?(Feb 15, 2024)

Neutral

Market Bullishness Reaches Extreme Levels: Are Investors Ignoring Warning Signs?(Feb 15, 2024)

“Bullish measures are getting really bullish.”This is an interesting statement, given how “bearish” sentiment was in 2022. As I noted then:“Investor sentiment has become so bearish that it’s bullish.One of the hardest things to do is go “against” the prevailing bias regarding investing. Such is known as contrarian investing. One of the most famous contrarian investors is Howard Marks, who once stated:“Resisting – and thereby achieving success as a contrarian – isn’t easy. Things combine to make it difficult; including natural herd tendencies and the pain imposed by being out of step, particularly when momentum invariably makes pro-cyclical actions look correct for a while.Given the uncertain nature of the future, and thus the difficulty of being confident your position is the right one – especially as price moves against you – it’s challenging to be a lonely contrarian.”Here is that article’s composite index of retail and professional investor sentiment to visualize just how negative sentiment was then. You will note that sentiment was pushing levels of bearishness not seen since the 2008 “Financial Crisis.”When levels of negativity reach very low levels, such historically equates to short- to intermediate-term market bottoms. Such is because excesses get built with everyone on the same side of the trade. At that time, everyone was so bearish it was a bullish measure. As we stated then, “the reflexive trade will be rapid when the shift in sentiment occurs.”Looking back, it is pretty evident such was the case, particularly with the QQQ believed to be dead.Of course, hindsight is always 20/20. Last year there were many reasons to be bearish. Things were seemingly so bad, with everyone expecting a recession, that there was nowhere to go but up. Since October, market participants have been betting on avoiding a recession. Such has led to a sharp reversal in bearish sentiment as the “Fear Of Missing Out,” or FOMO, kicked in.Since the end of January, despite the Fed hiking rates, a bank solvency crisis, and weakening economic data, the market has continued to “climb a wall of worry.” In fact, not only did it climb a wall of worry.

Neutral

Event

S&P 500 Stocks with Over 10% Target Price Downgrades – Part 1 📉 (3rd Week of March)

Strong Sell

SRE

Sempra

S&P 500 Stocks with Over 10% Target Price Downgrades – Part 1 📉 (3rd Week of March)

Over the past four weeks (Feb 24, 2025 – Mar 12, 2025), several major S&P 500 companies have seen their target prices cut by more than 10% in analyst reports.This reflects a combination of fundamental shifts in these companies, macroeconomic factors, and changes in industry competition. From a sell-side perspective, such target price downgrades can signal short-term downward pressure on stock prices, requiring investors to consider appropriate risk management and sell strategies.Below is a list of stocks whose target prices have been cut by more than 10% compared to four weeks ago. For each stock, we provide the target price as of February 24, 2025, and March 12, 2025, along with the percentage decrease.1. Builders FirstSource (BLDR-US)Target Price (Mar 12, 2025): $178Target Price (Feb 14, 2025): $198Decline: -10.1%Key Issue: The construction sector slowdown and rising raw material costs are weighing on the company's profitability.2. Celanese (CE-US)Target Price (Mar 12, 2025): $69Target Price (Feb 14, 2025): $91Decline: -24.2%Key Issue: Weakening demand for chemical products and increased raw material costs are negatively impacting earnings forecasts.3. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE-US)Target Price (Mar 12, 2025): $20Target Price (Feb 14, 2025): $24Decline: -16.7%Key Issue: Slowing demand for IT infrastructure and weaker data center growth are the main reasons for the downward revision.4. Moderna (MRNA-US)Target Price (Mar 12, 2025): $53Target Price (Feb 14, 2025): $63Decline: -15.9%Key Issue: Declining Covid-19 vaccine demand and uncertainty around its drug pipeline have heightened investor concerns.5. Sempra (SRE-US)Target Price (Mar 12, 2025): $83Target Price (Feb 14, 2025): $94Decline: -11.7%Key Issue: Increased volatility in the energy and utilities markets has raised concerns about the company's profitability.6. Teleflex (TFX-US)Target Price (Mar 12, 2025): $165Target Price (Feb 14, 2025): $240Decline: -31.3%Key Issue: Slowing demand in the medical device market and increasing competition are driving lower earnings forecasts.While the reasons and extent of target price downgrades vary by company, overall, these revisions reflect common macroeconomic risks, such as economic recession fears, supply chain uncertainties, rising costs, intensifying competition.Additionally, some companies are affected by structural industry changes, such as fluctuations in EV battery demand and semiconductor industry trends.From a sell-side perspective, stocks experiencing significant target price cuts could face short-term downside pressure. Investors should consider risk management strategies, including portfolio rebalancing, short positions, market-driven adjustments – Stay alert to upcoming earnings reports, interest rate changes, and key economic indicators, as these can significantly impact volatility.By aligning investment decisions with broader market trends, investors can navigate these shifts with greater flexibility and strategic foresight.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Strong Sell

SRE

Sempra

S&P 500 Stocks with Over 10% Target Price Downgrades – Part 2 📉 (3rd Week of March)

Strong Sell

AMD

Advanced Micro Devices

+26

S&P 500 Stocks with Over 10% Target Price Downgrades – Part 2 📉 (3rd Week of March)

Strong Sell

AMD

Advanced Micro Devices

+26

S&P 500 Stocks with Over 10% Target Price Downgrade 📉 (3rd Week of Feb 2025)

Strong Sell

AMD

Advanced Micro Devices

+10

S&P 500 Stocks with Over 10% Target Price Downgrade 📉 (3rd Week of Feb 2025)

Strong Sell

AMD

Advanced Micro Devices

+10

WorldCom's financial bomb(June 26, 2002)

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

WorldCom's financial bomb(June 26, 2002)

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Confidence in Corporate America hit new lows Wednesday as President Bush, Congress and other federal regulators vowed to investigate WorldCom while securities analysts forecast bankruptcy for the latest firm to fool investors with inflated profits. WorldCom, which will downwardly restate financial results in one of the biggest accounting scandals in history, joins Enron, Global Crossing and Tyco International among the tarnished success stories of the 1990s. graphic graphic Save a link to this article and return to it at www.savethis.comSave a link to this article and return to it at www.savethis.com Email a link to this articleEmail a link to this article Printer-friendly version of this articlePrinter-friendly version of this article View a list of the most popular articles on our siteView a list of the most popular articles on our site graphic graphic "No one blow is going to be terminal," said Pete Peterson, the chairman of Blackstone Group "But this is another very serious one. All this does is add to the increasing loss of confidence in our systems." Peterson leads a group of investors that includes the heads of TIAA-CREF, the big pension fund and Vanguard, the mutual fund company, that are drawing up corporate governance recommendations. Bush Wednesday promised a full investigation into WorldCom's accounting problems following word that the No 2 long-distance telephone provider improperly booked $3.8 billion over the past five quarters. The mis-accounting made earnings look better than they really were. "We will fully investigate and hold all people accountable for misleading not only shareholders but employees as well," said Bush, who called the news "outrageous." "Those entrusted with shareholders' money must strive for the highest of standards." Hours later, the SEC filed a civil lawsuit against WorldCom, charging the company with fraud. "We're seeking orders that will prevent any dissipation of assets or payouts to senior corporate officers past or present, and preventing any destruction of documents," SEC chairman Harvey Pitt said in New York. The Federal Communications Commission is also taking some steps in the scandal. FCC Chairman Michael Powell said Wednesday that he was "deeply concerned" by the WorldCom developments and their impact on the telecom industry. Powell said he will travel to New York on Friday and meet with a variety of telephone industry officials, analysts and debt-rating agencies to assess the challenges facing industry. "We are closely monitoring the situation and are doing everything possible to ensure and protect both the stability of the telecommunications network and the quality of service to consumers," Powell said in a statement. Investors Wednesday could not trade WorldCom shares, which were halted after falling more than 98 percent from their all-time high through Tuesday. But the overall stock market ended little changed, recovering from an earlier tumble. The Justice Department is also looking into WorldCom, a spokesman said at a midday briefing, joining a Congressional panel, which vowed an inquiry of its own. Memories of Enron The latest accounting misdeeds unnerved investors leery about the accuracy of corporate profits after the collapse of Enron Corp., which filed the biggest bankruptcy in the United States last December. Arthur Andersen LLP, found guilty earlier this month of obstructing justice in the Enron case, signed off on WorldCom's books. "Our senior management team is shocked by these discoveries," WorldCom CEO John Sidgmore, who was appointed in April, said in a statement. "We are committed to operating WorldCom in accordance with the highest ethical standards." The news late Tuesday from WorldCom prompted industry analysts to say the heavily indebted long-distance provider might file for bankruptcy protection from creditors. WorldCom is looking for about $4 billion in financing but some of its main bank lenders, including Bank of America, J.P. Morgan and Citigroup, are refusing to loan them any more, banking sources told CNN/Money. "They will have to file bankruptcy in a matter of days," a person familiar with the situation said. But other bankers close to the situation said it was too early to say whether WorldCom will file for bankruptcy soon. graphic Related stories The death of confidence The last straw Analysts punish telecoms In addition to describing improper accounting, WorldCom said it would cut 17,000 jobs, about a quarter of its work force, and fired Chief Financial Officer Scott Sullivan. David Myers, senior vice president and controller, resigned. The company, based in Clinton, Miss., said an internal audit showed that expenses of $3.1 billion for 2001 and nearly $800 million for the first quarter of 2002 were improperly accounted for. WorldCom said restating the expenses to account for their true costs would cut reported cash flow -- or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and other items -- for last year and the first quarter of 2002. While CEO Sidgmore said the company remains "viable and committed to a long-term future,"Adam Quinton, who covers WorldCom for Merrill Lynch, said the developments bring the company closer to bankruptcy. "This only adds to investor wariness," said Quinton, who advises investors to sell shares. Nervous times WorldCom's revelations may deter already reluctant customers from buying communications services. And its access to existing lines of credit may also dry up as banks demand repayment. "The development brings into serious question the company's ability to close on a new bank deal and it raises the likelihood the company will file for Chapter 11 [bankruptcy protection]," Marc Crossman, who follows the company for J.P. Morgan, wrote in a note to clients Wednesday morning. But one banker close to the situation said that WorldCom has $2 billion in cash that they have yet to burn through, making bankruptcy unlikely. "This is vastly different from Enron," the person said. "The $2 billion will last them several months." The SEC said WorldCom had committed "accounting improprieties of unprecedented magnitude" -- proof, it said, of the need for reform in the regulation of corporate accounting. To finance that reform, the House voted overwhelmingly Wednesday to authorize a 77 percent boost in the SEC's budget, raising it to $776 million for the fiscal year beginning Oct. 1. Elsewhere, the chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee said he ordered a separate WorldCom probe. "Clearly, it was an orchestrated effort to mislead investors and regulators, and I am determined to get to the bottom of it," said committee chairman Billy Tauzin, R-La. The accounting mishap comes during a tough time for WorldCom, which could face Nasdaq delisting if its share price remains below $1. The company's market value had tumbled to $2.7 billion at the close of trading Tuesday, from about $125 billion in mid-1999. Salomon Smith Barney Telecom Analyst Jack Grubman -- who had been perhaps the most bullish analyst on WorldCom -- cut his rating to "underperform" just a day before the company's announcement Tuesday. WorldCom said it asked its new auditors, KPMG LLP, to undertake a comprehensive audit of the company's financial statements for 2001 and 2002. The company will reissue unaudited financial statements for 2001 and for the first quarter of 2002 as soon as it can. John Hodulik, who covers WorldCom for UBS Warburg, said the restatement should reduce WorldCom Inc.'s reported 2001 "cash flow" by 32.5 percent to $6.3 billion and first quarter results by 36.9 percent to $797 million. "We are unable to provide a realistic price target until we have reliable financials," said Hodulik, who rates the company's stock a "hold." Click here for a look at what other analysts are saying about WorldCom. Selling assets In addition to the 17,000 job cuts, the company said it is selling a series of non-core businesses, part of a plan to save $2 billion. WorldCom stock began falling in late 1999 as businesses slashed spending on telecom services and equipment. A series of debt downgrades this year have raised borrowing costs for WorldCom, which is struggling with about $32 billion in debt. WorldCom said it has no debt maturing during the next two quarters. Former WorldCom CEO Bernie Ebbers resigned in April amid questions about $366 million in personal loans from the company and a federal probe of its accounting practices. WorldCom, whose shares once traded near $64 in 1999, tumbled to 21 cents in before-hours trading, down from Tuesday's regular-hours close of 83 cents. Top of page

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Economy & Strategy

A Spike in the VIX Sometimes Signals a Market Bottom (Apr 22, 2025)

Neutral

SPX

S&P500

A Spike in the VIX Sometimes Signals a Market Bottom (Apr 22, 2025)

In 1926, magician Harry Houdini died from acute appendicitis after a surprise punch to the abdomen by a college student, illustrating how an unprepared blow can prove fatal. The same lesson applies to financial markets: the biggest shocks often come from sudden, unforeseen "punches."In April 2025, the U.S. government's abrupt tariff policy announcement was such a blow. With a 145% tariff slapped on Chinese goods and additional levies on major trading partners during what was branded as "Liberation Day," the S&P 500 plunged 10.5% within just two days, and the VIX spiked to 53. It was one of the sharpest shocks since COVID-era turmoil.Markets tend to lower expectations during periods of instability — and the lower expectations fall, the easier it is for even minor positive surprises to trigger a relief rally. The S&P 500’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has fallen from 22.4 in February to 18.1 today, reflecting much lower growth assumptions.Historically, extreme spikes in the VIX have often coincided with market bottoms. Since 1990, roughly half of the markets that dropped over 10% saw their bear runs end within a week after the VIX peaked, with some cases marking the bottom on the same day. This is why technical analysts often advise: "Buy when the VIX is high."However, this downturn may not be a typical short-term correction. Tariffs, high interest rates, and fiscal tightening are jointly pressuring the real economy, suggesting the potential for a prolonged recession rather than a simple dip. During the 2008 financial crisis, even after the VIX peaked, the S&P 500 fell an additional 10% over the following months.Moreover, some argue that the VIX no longer captures market sentiment as accurately as it once did, due to structural changes in the options market. Nonetheless, the fear itself is very real — and expectations are already historically low.Ultimately, the key lies in how one responds after taking the hit. Houdini’s law suggests that while you can't always anticipate shocks, you can prepare to recover from them. If you have patience and a long-term perspective, this could very well be the window of opportunity you’ve been waiting for.(Source: optimisticallie.com)[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Neutral

SPX

S&P500

Tariffs Stir Fears of Supply Chain Disruption, Vanguard Sees Opportunity in Bonds (Apr 22, 2025)

Neutral

453850

ACE U.S. Long Term T-Bond Active(H)

Tariffs Stir Fears of Supply Chain Disruption, Vanguard Sees Opportunity in Bonds (Apr 22, 2025)

As tariff-driven fears over supply chain disruption escalate, the bond market has been highly volatile throughout April. Yet, Vanguard has found pockets of opportunity. According to Rebecca Venter, Senior Fixed Income Manager at Vanguard, there has been notable demand for not only ultra-short-term Treasuries but also medium-term maturities.Vanguard’s 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), which launched in February and already manages nearly $1 billion in assets, posted a 0.2% total return so far in April. Venter said in an interview Monday that the month's bond flows reflect a clear "flight to safety" amid tariff-related uncertainty.She warned that tariffs represent a "double-edged sword," risking both higher inflation and weaker growth, and noted that the fiscal outlook could deteriorate as a result.Investors heavily exposed to long-term Treasuries are experiencing greater volatility compared to those holding shorter-dated securities. Even before Trump's sweeping tariff announcement on April 2, traders were already concerned that large U.S. deficits would push up long-term yields — and higher yields depress bond prices.While tariffs have worsened concerns over rising term premiums — the extra yield investors demand to hold long-term bonds — Venter maintained that U.S. Treasuries remain a "safe haven."BlackRock, in a Monday report, echoed this view but highlighted that the U.S. bond market remains vulnerable to shifts in confidence. They noted that the recent surge in Treasury yields, even as U.S. stocks and the dollar fall, reflects investors demanding greater compensation for risk — a clear sign of a "fragile equilibrium."Supply Chain RisksBlackRock warned that the Trump administration's trade policies are triggering a broader global realignment.“The final outcome of these transformations is almost impossible to predict, especially now with unpredictable tariff negotiations,” the firm wrote.If trade deficits are quickly targeted for reduction — particularly through erratic tariff actions — it could erode foreign investor confidence, making it harder for the U.S. to fund its debt, BlackRock cautioned. This would push bond yields higher and raise U.S. debt servicing costs.Even with the 90-day tariff reprieve granted to non-China countries after the April 2 announcement, the global supply chain remains vulnerable.“Supply chains can evolve over time, but they cannot be rapidly restructured without causing significant disruption,” BlackRock wrote. Tariffs not only raise costs but can restrict access to critical inputs and potentially halt production — much like during the pandemic — resulting in stagflation risks.Bond PerformanceSince early April, short-term Treasuries have outperformed long-dated U.S. bonds.The iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY) posted a +0.3% return so far this month, whereas the broader U.S. bond market has struggled.On Monday, the 2-year Treasury yield fell 4.3 basis points to 3.751%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.Vanguard, from a duration management perspective, has favored mid-term maturities (around 5-7 years), Venter said.Meanwhile, the Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) has seen net inflows but recorded a slight 0.1% loss on a total return basis so far in April.In contrast, the Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) suffered a steep 4.7% loss through Monday, significantly worse than the broader U.S. investment-grade bond market. For comparison, the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) declined 1.3% over the same period.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Neutral

453850

ACE U.S. Long Term T-Bond Active(H)

Leaving the IMF Would Be an Economic, Financial, and Political Mistake for the U.S.

Neutral

NONE

No Relevant Stock

Leaving the IMF Would Be an Economic, Financial, and Political Mistake for the U.S.

What would happen if the United States withdrew from the International Monetary Fund (IMF)?Experts warn that such a move would severely damage America's global prestige and weaken its privileged role in international finance.Former President Donald Trump previously pulled the U.S. out of the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organization (WHO). Now, he is reportedly targeting the IMF. The Project 2025 policy blueprint, published by the Heritage Foundation, proposes that a future Trump administration should withdraw from the IMF, claiming that the institution supports policies contrary to America's traditional values of free markets and limited government.However, leaving the IMF would almost certainly amount to a self-inflicted wound for the United States.By withdrawing, the U.S. would lose all influence over IMF policies and operations. More critically, it would undermine the global standing of the U.S. dollar.Currently, most IMF operations are conducted in U.S. dollars, and borrowers predominantly request and repay funds in dollars.If the U.S. exits, other countries would assume control of dollar-related operations, pushing the dollar out of IMF transactions.International demand for dollars has already declined by 5.6% over the past four years. A U.S. withdrawal would likely accelerate that trend even further.Although the IMF operates under a multi-currency system, the U.S. dollar remains the dominant currency, comprising 43% of the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket.If the U.S. were to leave, the dollar would have to be removed from the SDR basket, since only currencies from member countries can be included.Relinquishing leadership at the IMF would open the door for China and Europe to expand their influence.China could even push to relocate the IMF headquarters to Asia, marking a symbolic and strategic shift away from U.S. leadership in global finance.Beyond losing a critical channel for international financial assistance, the U.S. would forfeit its ability to influence the very IMF policies it finds problematic.The biggest risk: The dollar could lose its status as the world’s premier reserve currency.Even Trump's former economic adviser, Stephen Moore, emphasized the importance of preserving the dollar’s reserve status. Yet an IMF withdrawal could directly undermine that goal.Leaving the IMF would trigger a realignment where currencies from China, Europe, and smaller nations replace the dollar within the international financial system.U.S. financial institutions would also face reduced preferential access to dollar liquidity through the Federal Reserve, weakening America's leverage globally.This would not simply be a diplomatic misstep.It would represent a rapid erosion of U.S. financial dominance and a crippling blow to the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions as a strategic tool.In short, quitting the IMF would be an economic, financial, and political disaster for the United States.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Neutral

NONE

No Relevant Stock

Trump vs. Powell: A Test of Fed Independence

Neutral

NONE

No Relevant Stock

Trump vs. Powell: A Test of Fed Independence

Former President Donald Trump has escalated his confrontation with the Federal Reserve, pressing for aggressive interest rate cuts and even hinting at removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell. However, legal experts widely agree that a president’s authority to dismiss a sitting Fed Chair mid-term is legally ambiguous and would likely trigger a prolonged Supreme Court battle.In his second term, Trump is actively seeking to reshape the Fed, aiming to install loyalists and assert greater influence over U.S. monetary policy. In contrast, Powell remains cautious, prioritizing inflation risks over immediate economic stimulus, despite mounting concerns over a slowdown triggered by escalating trade tensions.This standoff puts the credibility and independence of U.S. monetary policy to a historic test. Although the 90-day suspension of new tariffs on April 9 provided temporary relief to markets, fundamental frictions between the White House and the Fed remain unresolved.Adding to the tensions, Trump recently declared that Powell’s "term needs to end soon," signaling a more aggressive stance toward reshaping the central bank’s leadership structure.Meanwhile, inflation has already surpassed the Fed's 2% target, and the risk of further price increases due to the trade war complicates the Fed's path forward. Cutting rates now risks fueling inflation, while maintaining current rates could deepen an economic recession, placing the Fed in a precarious policy trap.In Congress, skepticism is growing. Representative Patrick McHenry warned that "any attempt to remove Powell would only inject further instability into an already fragile environment," while Representative Frank Lucas emphasized that Fed independence was established as a foundational principle by Congress.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Neutral

NONE

No Relevant Stock

All That Glitters: Is $3,700 Gold a Reality by Year-End? (Apr 17, 2025)

Sell

GLD

SPDR Gold Trust

All That Glitters: Is $3,700 Gold a Reality by Year-End? (Apr 17, 2025)

Gold futures have once again hit a fresh all-time high, fueling speculation that prices could rally to $3,700 per ounce by year-end. On April 15, June gold futures closed at $3,240.4, marking a 35% increase year-over-year. In response, Goldman Sachs raised its year-end price target from $3,300 to $3,700, citing mounting macro risks and structural tailwinds.What’s Driving the Rally?The current surge in gold is attributed to three overlapping catalysts:Escalating geopolitical and trade uncertainty stemming from the Trump administration’s intensified protectionist stance. Some global banks have reportedly relocated gold holdings from London to New York, underscoring a shift toward physical asset security.A weaker U.S. dollar and growing concerns over fiscal deficits are boosting gold's appeal as a hedge against currency debasement.Sustained demand from central banks—notably China—and strong ETF inflows are reinforcing the structural bull case.The People’s Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for five consecutive months, now holding 2,290 tonnes, while emerging-market central banks such as those in Poland, Turkey, and the Czech Republic have also expanded their holdings. Bloomberg analysts described this as a potential “modern gold standard revival.”While UBS flagged short-term overheating and psychological resistance near current levels, it acknowledged that the combination of falling interest rates, a weakening dollar, and geopolitical risk continues to support a longer-term structural uptrend.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Sell

GLD

SPDR Gold Trust

2025 Gold Rush: Flight to Safety Accelerates

Neutral

GLD

SPDR Gold Trust

2025 Gold Rush: Flight to Safety Accelerates

In 2025, gold-related funds are seeing inflows at a record-breaking pace. According to BofA Global Research, cumulative inflows are expected to reach $80 billion this year, more than double the peak seen in 2020. Gold has once again proven its status as a safe haven, with capital flowing in as market-wide uncertainty continues to rise.Gold prices have surged roughly 22% year-to-date, making it the top-performing major asset class in 2025. In the past year alone, gold has set 52 new all-time highs, marking its strongest rally in over a decade. This consistent upward trend reflects the asset's enduring appeal during risk-off periods.The recent surge in gold demand is driven by a combination of geopolitical instability, concerns over currency depreciation, and global growth slowdown fears. Analysts note that this may represent a structural asset rotation rather than a short-term trend, with gold's investment case remaining strong for the foreseeable future.Source: https://t.me/insidertracking/9121[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Neutral

GLD

SPDR Gold Trust

셀스마트 밴더

Dollar Index Breaks Below 100 — Is a Confidence Crisis Brewing? (Apr 11, 2025)

Sell

NONE

No Relevant Stock

셀스마트 밴더

Dollar Index Breaks Below 100 — Is a Confidence Crisis Brewing? (Apr 11, 2025)

On April 11, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) plunged to 100.05, briefly breaking below the psychological threshold of 100 for the first time since April 2022. The index declined –0.81% intraday, marking a significant loss in momentum. The move reflects growing distrust toward U.S. assets and currency, amplified by ongoing trade disputes and geopolitical instability.This is more than a typical FX adjustment—it signals a "crisis of confidence" in the dollar. Historically seen as a safe-haven asset, the greenback’s weakness amid rising global risk diverges from its traditional role.Markets are now seeing a reversal of the usual "flight to safety" behavior, with investors increasingly cautious about U.S.-driven geopolitical and trade risks.If this trend persists, the weakened dollar could trigger broader risk-off sentiment in U.S. equity and bond markets. Conversely, a dollar rebound would suggest receding systemic risk, making the Dollar Index a critical leading indicator for global investor sentiment.Source: https://t.me/cahier_de_market/5244[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Sell

NONE

No Relevant Stock

Retaliation or Recalibration? Global Markets React to Trump’s Tariff Push

Neutral

168580

ACE CHINA A CSI300

Retaliation or Recalibration? Global Markets React to Trump’s Tariff Push

Global equities have taken a hit over the past five trading days following the Trump administration’s announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs.However, the magnitude of the market pullback varied significantly by region, offering deeper insights into how countries are positioned amid rising trade tensions.One standout observation is that Chinese markets, despite being directly targeted with high reciprocal tariffs and having announced clear retaliatory measures, declined less than their peers. Meanwhile, Japan and the EU, traditionally close U.S. allies with relatively lower tariff exposure, saw steeper declines.Recap of Country Responses to Reciprocal TariffsAs of April 7, 2025Source: Media reports, Mirae Asset Securities, CORE16Interestingly, the EU has issued a retaliatory warning but is taking a two-phase approach, leaving room for negotiation. The bloc plans to impose €26 billion in tariffs by mid-April and stated that further countermeasures would follow a detailed review.China’s relative market resilience likely stems from two key factors: its reduced dependence on U.S. trade compared to Trump’s first term, and its policy commitment to domestic demand stimulation, which has tempered investor anxiety.The core insight here is that market reactions seem more aligned with a country’s domestic stimulus capacity and dependence on U.S. trade rather than the direct tariff rate itself.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Neutral

168580

ACE CHINA A CSI300

Wall Street Firms Slash S&P 500 Targets Amid Tariff Policy Uncertainty (Mar 27, 2025)

Neutral

Wall Street Firms Slash S&P 500 Targets Amid Tariff Policy Uncertainty (Mar 27, 2025)

Amid persisting uncertainty over the Trump administration’s tariff policy, major Wall Street institutions are collectively lowering their year-end forecasts for the U.S. stock market.Barclays cut its S&P 500 year-end target significantly from 6,600 to 5,900, implying the index may not rise much beyond last year’s closing level of 5,881.63. Barclays’ base-case scenario assumes “no recession, but earnings hit by tariffs,” assigning a 60% probability to this outlook. In this scenario, high tariffs on China would remain in place without further escalation, while a 5% reciprocal tariff would be applied to other countries.Goldman Sachs also trimmed its target from 6,500 to 6,200, citing concerns over slower economic growth and weaker corporate earnings due to rising tariffs. RBC Capital Markets followed suit, lowering its target from 6,600 to 6,200, signaling a broader shift toward caution across Wall Street.While a bullish case sees the index reaching 6,700, the likelihood is low at just 25%, given limited prospects for tariff rollbacks. On the downside, a worsening tariff shock could drag the index down to 4,400, reflecting growing anxiety over prolonged policy uncertainty and its impact on investor sentiment.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Neutral

Deepening Decoupling: Why the Korean Stock Market Is Not Keeping Up with Earnings (Mar 21, 2025)

Neutral

NONE

No Relevant Stock

Deepening Decoupling: Why the Korean Stock Market Is Not Keeping Up with Earnings (Mar 21, 2025)

Korean and U.S. Earnings Momentum Breaks from Market TrendsA historically unusual decoupling phenomenon has emerged between corporate earnings and stock market performance in both Korea and the U.S. Unlike in the past, the synchronization between earnings momentum and stock indices has weakened significantly.Since the second half of 2023, Korea’s stock market has remained largely range-bound, while corporate earnings have completed an entire cycle of growth and contraction. A similar disconnect is occurring in the U.S., where stock market gains are not fully aligned with earnings fundamentals, adding to market uncertainty worldwide.Higher Earnings Volatility in KoreaThe volatility of corporate earnings in Korea has been much larger than in the U.S., reflecting the market’s greater sensitivity to global economic uncertainty and political risks.For instance, during Trump’s first term, U.S. corporate profits surged due to large-scale tax cuts, whereas Korean corporate earnings plummeted amid trade tensions with China. However, under the current Trump administration, Korea’s earnings momentum is behaving differently than before, showing resilience despite policy uncertainty.Why Is the Korean Market Stagnating Despite Strong Earnings?Currently, Korea’s earnings momentum is at its highest level of the year, yet the stock market has failed to rise accordingly. This breaks from past patterns, where earnings typically served as a leading indicator for stock prices. The lack of a clear market direction suggests that stock movements may be driven more by investor sentiment than fundamentals.During such periods, irrational behaviors like meme-driven rallies or FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) tend to dominate the market. This increases the risk of stocks rising sharply despite weak fundamentals.source： https://t.me/purequant/12039[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Fed Cites Tariff Uncertainty, Lowers Economic Outlook (Mar 20, 2025)

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Fed Cites Tariff Uncertainty, Lowers Economic Outlook (Mar 20, 2025)

Federal Reserve Maintains Rate Stance, Raises Inflation Forecast, Lowers Growth and Employment OutlookThe Federal Reserve has maintained a wait-and-see stance on interest rates while raising its inflation forecast for the year and lowering growth and employment projections.During its policy meeting, the central bank kept the federal funds rate at around 4.3%, as it assesses how the Trump administration’s sweeping changes in trade, immigration, spending, and tax policies will reshape the economic outlook. Consumer sentiment has declined in recent weeks amid headlines about federal spending cuts and tariff hikes."We believe this is a good time to wait for more clarity," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a press conference on Wednesday.Investors were relieved that Powell did not take a more aggressive stance on potential tariff-driven price increases. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9% (about 380 points), while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite gained more than 1% each. According to the Fed’s latest economic projections, 11 out of 19 policymakers now expect at least two rate cuts this year, compared to 15 officials in December who expected the same.Tariffs to Push Inflation Higher, Fed Sees Delay in Cooling PricesFed officials now expect inflation to rise to 2.7% this year, up from 2.5% in January. "This is actually due to the tariffs," Powell stated. He noted that progress in lowering inflation is likely to be delayed for the time being.Currently, policymakers expect inflation to slow in 2026 and 2027, which suggests they see no reason to adjust rates in response to tariffs alone. "If inflation is something that would fade quickly without our intervention, sometimes it is appropriate to look past it," Powell said. "And that could be the case with tariff-driven inflation."Lower Growth Projections, Policy Uncertainty IntensifiesFed policymakers lowered their GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% (December forecast) to 1.7%. Over the past year, they have aimed for a balanced approach. Inflation had fallen from 5.5% two years ago to 2.5% in January, marking significant progress toward the Fed’s 2% target.Officials have sought to avoid unnecessary economic slowdown while allowing price and wage growth to moderate. Between September and December 2024, the Fed cut rates by a full percentage point. However, they also do not want to reverse recent progress on inflation.The Trump administration’s policy shifts make growth and inflation projections more challenging. Deregulation and measures to lower energy prices could boost growth and help inflation cool further. Meanwhile, recent economic data presents a mixed picture—consumer spending has slowed, but employment remains stable, with the February unemployment rate at 4.1%."The economy is still in pretty good shape, and employment remains stable," said Frank Sorrentino, CEO of ConnectOne Bank, which manages $9.9 billion in assets in Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey. However, he noted that policy-driven uncertainty has caused loan demand to slow."We will find ways to navigate through this, but people are struggling to decide whether to start, stop, slow down, or speed up their plans. This makes it very, very difficult for businesses to operate effectively," Sorrentino added.Tariffs Could Complicate Fed’s Rate DecisionsExcluding food and energy, goods prices declined for most of last year, significantly contributing to slowing inflation. However, prices have recently started rising again.Michael Reid, chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets, warned that the Fed faces a growing challenge."On one hand, there are signs of a slowing labor market, but much of this data does not immediately appear in employment reports. On the other hand, tariffs could push inflation higher throughout the rest of the year," Reid said.A combination of stagnant growth and rising prices—often referred to as stagflation—could make it more difficult for the Fed to preemptively cut rates in response to economic slowdown.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Measuring the Neutral Interest Rate Is a Complex Process (Mar 8, 2023)

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Measuring the Neutral Interest Rate Is a Complex Process (Mar 8, 2023)

What Is R-Star (r)?*R-star (r*, the real neutral rate of interest) is a theoretical rate that allows an economy to grow at its potential without causing inflationary or deflationary pressures.It represents a "neutral" level where monetary policy neither stimulates nor restricts economic activity.R-star is a real interest rate, meaning it accounts for expected inflation.Why R-Star MattersMonetary Policy Benchmark: If the policy rate is above r*, monetary policy is restrictive; if it is below r*, it is expansionary.Long-term Guidance: Central banks use r* to gauge where interest rates should stabilize in the future.Asset Valuation: R-star influences discount rates used in financial models, affecting corporate valuations and asset prices.Challenges in Measuring R-StarUnobservable Variable:R-star is a theoretical construct and cannot be directly observed.It must be estimated using economic models, which yield different results based on assumptions.Structural Economic Changes:Technological progress, demographic shifts, and globalization impact r*, making its estimation highly uncertain.Data Limitations:Economic data reflects past conditions, making forward-looking estimates difficult.Different Models for Estimating R-StarHLW Model (Holston-Laubach-Williams):Uses inflation and unemployment trends to estimate r*.Becomes unreliable when Phillips Curve relationships weaken.UMod Model:Enhances HLW by incorporating labor market variables.Still constrained by data limitations and model complexity.Simplified Approaches:Directly estimate output gaps.Reduce complexity but rely heavily on subjective judgment.Policy ImplicationsOver-reliance on r estimates can misguide policy decisions.*Central banks should use r as a flexible reference rather than an absolute target.*Considering multiple indicators (inflation expectations, labor market conditions, financial stability risks) is crucial for effective policy.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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U.S. Stocks Rise for Second Day on Dip Buying; Tesla Drops 4.8% (Mar 17, 2025)

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U.S. Stocks Rise for Second Day on Dip Buying; Tesla Drops 4.8% (Mar 17, 2025)

U.S. stocks extended their gains for a second consecutive session, supported by dip buying and easing economic concerns. On March 17 (ET), the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.85% to 41,841.63, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 0.64% and 0.31%, respectively.According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, February retail sales increased 0.2% month-over-month, falling short of the 0.6% forecast. However, core retail sales (control group) rose 1%, offering a mildly positive signal for GDP growth expectations. Additionally, reports that former President Donald Trump is engaging in negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss ending the war in Ukraine fueled hopes of geopolitical risk reduction.Stock HighlightsTesla (-4.8%):Investors reacted negatively to China’s announcement of free autonomous driving trials, raising market uncertainty.Mizuho Securities cut Tesla’s price target from $515 to $430, adding to the downward pressure.Intel (+6.8%):Surged after announcing a corporate restructuring strategy.Baidu (+9%):Benefited from expectations of increased consumer spending in China due to new government stimulus measures.Nvidia (-1.8%):Weighed down by ongoing U.S.-China tensions.Quantum Computing Stocks Soar:D-Wave Quantum (+10.15%) and Quantum Corp (+40.1%) surged as investors anticipated AI-related breakthroughs ahead of Nvidia’s upcoming AI conference.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Determining Optimal Trading Rules Without Backtesting (Sep 12, 2015)

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Determining Optimal Trading Rules Without Backtesting (Sep 12, 2015)

A recent study, Determining Optimal Trading Rules Without Backtesting, challenges the conventional reliance on backtesting for optimizing trading strategies. The paper argues that overfitting in backtesting can lead to misleadingly strong performance during testing but poor real-world results. To address this issue, the study proposes a new methodology for determining Optimal Trading Rules (OTR) without backtesting.Instead of using a backtesting engine, the methodology builds on alternative modeling techniques and presents empirical evidence that an optimal solution exists when prices follow a discrete Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (O-U) process. The study then demonstrates how to numerically compute this optimal trading rule.MethodologyThe proposed OTR framework follows these steps:Price Process Modeling: Assumes that asset prices follow a discrete Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (O-U) process, which exhibits mean-reverting properties, meaning prices tend to revert to a long-term average.Model Parameter Estimation: Estimates key parameters of the O-U process (e.g., mean reversion speed, volatility) using historical price data.Profit and Loss Targets: Defines stop-loss and profit-taking levels with various combinations.Monte Carlo Simulation: Simulates price trajectories using the estimated parameters and applies different stop-loss and profit-taking rules to calculate returns.Sharpe Ratio Optimization: Computes the Sharpe ratio for each combination and selects the trading rule that maximizes risk-adjusted returns as the optimal strategy.Key Findings & Case StudiesThe study’s primary contribution is demonstrating that optimal trading rules can be derived without backtesting under certain market conditions. Specifically, when prices follow an O-U process, selecting specific stop-loss and profit-taking levels leads to an optimal strategy.1. Case: Long-Term Equilibrium at Zero (Market Makers)This scenario represents liquidity providers such as market makers.When the half-life of mean reversion is short (i.e., prices revert quickly), the optimal strategy is to use tight profit-taking levels and wider stop-loss levels.This approach secures small but frequent gains while tolerating temporary losses.The model shows that in this case, the Sharpe ratio can reach up to 3.2, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns.2. Case: Long-Term Equilibrium Above Zero (Hedge Funds & Asset Managers)This scenario applies to investors holding long-term positions.Since positions have a higher probability of being profitable, the profit-taking threshold is set higher compared to market makers.3. Case: Long-Term Equilibrium Below Zero (Risk-Averse Traders)This scenario applies to traders aiming to minimize losses and exit positions quickly.The strategy prioritizes early exits on losing trades to protect capital.For each scenario, the study visualizes the Sharpe ratio across different stop-loss and profit-taking levels using heat maps, enabling traders to intuitively identify the optimal trading rule based on market conditions.This research presents a novel approach to avoiding backtesting overfitting and developing more robust trading strategies. While it was previously assumed that backtesting was necessary for optimizing trading rules, this study demonstrates that under certain conditions, an optimal strategy can be determined theoretically.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Analysis of the Roller Conduction Effect in the Chinese Stock Market (Oct 15, 2023)

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Analysis of the Roller Conduction Effect in the Chinese Stock Market (Oct 15, 2023)

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Does Seasonality Exist in Analysts’ Recommendations? (Nov 12, 2010)

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Does Seasonality Exist in Analysts’ Recommendations? (Nov 12, 2010)

SummaryThe paper titled "The Seasonality in Sell-Side Analysts’ Recommendations" investigates whether there is seasonality in investment recommendations issued by star analysts and non-star analysts. The study finds that both star and non-star analysts tend to issue more optimistic recommendations in May, contradicting the well-known market adage, "Sell in May and go away."Non-star analysts were found to be more optimistic in their price targets compared to star analysts. Moreover, the study reveals that the cyclicality in analysts' optimism is more closely linked to corporate earnings announcement schedules rather than overall market trends. Additionally, analysts do not explicitly account for known seasonal effects when setting their recommendations and price targets.Using I/B/E/S data from 2003 to 2014, the researchers analyzed how seasonality influences analysts' optimism cycles and how earnings announcements impact target price forecasts. The study emphasizes that investors should be aware that analysts are most optimistic in May, which could influence investment decisions.Methodology Data Collection➤ Analyst recommendation and price target data were collected from the I/B/E/S database (2003-2014).➤ Star analysts were identified using Institutional Investor, StarMine, and The Wall Street Journal rankings.➤ Compustat data was used to track corporate earnings announcement dates.Market Seasonality Analysis➤ CRSP index data was analyzed to examine seasonal patterns in daily and monthly market returns from 2003 to 2014.Target Price Seasonality Analysis➤ The mean target price expected return (TPER) was calculated separately for star and non-star analysts.➤ Seasonal differences were examined between the summer (May–October) and winter (November–April) periods.➤ The study also assessed how buy, hold, and sell recommendations varied across seasons. Regression Analysis➤ OLS regression was used to analyze factors influencing target price forecasts, with independent variables including:➤ Seasonal dummy variables➤ Past and future market returns➤ Earnings announcement frequency Earnings Announcements & Optimism Cycles➤ Analysts’ average target prices over the year were compared against corporate earnings release schedules to determine the relationship between analyst optimism and earnings cycles.Key FindingsNo Strong Market Seasonality➤ Unlike prior studies, this research did not find a clear seasonal pattern in market returns from 2003 to 2014.➤ The researchers suggest this may be due to the short sample period or increased market awareness of seasonality effects.Target Price Seasonality➤ Both star and non-star analysts issued more optimistic price targets during the summer months, contradicting the "Sell in May" theory.➤ Non-star analysts were consistently more optimistic than star analysts, particularly in buy and hold recommendations.Earnings Announcements & Optimism Cycles➤ Analysts’ optimism was more strongly correlated with earnings announcement schedules than with market returns.➤ As the number of quarterly earnings reports increased, analysts issued more optimistic price targets.➤ However, analyst optimism tended to decline in the month before peak earnings release periods, suggesting that uncertainty leads to excessive optimism during periods of limited information.Star vs. Non-Star Analyst Differences➤ Non-star analysts were significantly more optimistic than star analysts in buy and hold recommendations.➤ In contrast, star analysts were more cautious and less likely to issue overly optimistic forecasts.➤ This implies that star analysts exhibit a more conservative approach compared to non-star analysts.ConclusionThis study provides valuable insights into the seasonal patterns of analysts’ recommendations, challenging the "Sell in May" theory by showing that analysts tend to be most optimistic during the summer months.Additionally, the research highlights that analyst optimism is more influenced by corporate earnings cycles rather than general market trends, suggesting that investors should consider earnings announcement schedules when interpreting analysts' recommendations.Moreover, the study demonstrates clear differences between star and non-star analysts, with star analysts being generally more conservative in their recommendations. This suggests that investors should carefully evaluate analyst reputation and track record when considering investment advice.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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"U.S. Recession Countdown Begins" – BCA Research Predicts Onset Within Three Months (Mar 11, 2025)

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"U.S. Recession Countdown Begins" – BCA Research Predicts Onset Within Three Months (Mar 11, 2025)

According to BCA Research, the U.S. economy is highly likely to enter a full-scale recession within the next three months. The firm had previously raised its 12-month U.S. recession probability from 65% to 75% following the November 2024 presidential election. Recent economic data further reinforces this outlook.While NBER’s key recession indicators remained relatively stable in recent months, latest data suggests the U.S. economy has reached 'stall speed', signaling an imminent downturn. BCA warns that traditional economic models have underestimated the impact of U.S.-China trade tensions, Trump’s tariff policies, and the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts, meaning the growth slowdown could be more severe than expected.One major risk is the rapid depletion of excess consumer savings, which had surged to $2 trillion post-pandemic but has now turned negative at -$1 trillion. This sharp decline could further weaken consumer spending. Additionally, delinquency rates in the commercial real estate market have surged to 19%, raising financial stability concerns. Given these deteriorating economic fundamentals, there is skepticism over Trump’s ability to implement large-scale stimulus or infrastructure spending, as excessive fiscal policies could worsen the severity of the recession.source: https://t.me/HS_academy/8782[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Is the U.S. Market Correction a Bearish Signal or Just Volatility? (Mar 15, 2025)

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Is the U.S. Market Correction a Bearish Signal or Just Volatility? (Mar 15, 2025)

The U.S. stock market has entered a technical correction phase, declining about 10% from its peak this year. Given that the market had surged approximately 60% over the past two years, opinions are divided between those viewing this as a natural correction and those seeing it as the beginning of a major downturn driven by Trump’s tariff policies. However, an examination of market fundamentals suggests that this is more of a short-term volatility spike than a structural decline.First, Trump’s "America First" policies and tariff hikes are not new market threats. These policies were already experienced and priced in during his previous term, making the recent tariffs more of a temporary adjustment factor reflecting political uncertainty rather than the start of a new financial crisis.Second, there are no clear signs of an economic downturn spreading to the real economy. While market volatility indicators like the VIX (Fear Index) have surged, the OAS (Option-Adjusted Spread between high-yield corporate bonds and Treasuries) remains relatively stable. Historically, both VIX and OAS spike simultaneously during a real economic recession, whereas the current situation aligns more with temporary political or external shocks seen in the past.In conclusion, the recent correction in the U.S. stock market appears to be a short-term adjustment driven by political uncertainty rather than a signal of a long-term economic downturn. However, given that a massive rally like the past two years is unlikely in the near term, investors should consider a short-term trading strategy rather than a long-term buy-and-hold approach.source: https://t.me/purequant/12023[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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5 Key Points for Determining the Right Time to Sell Stocks! (Jun 18, 2020)

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5 Key Points for Determining the Right Time to Sell Stocks! (Jun 18, 2020)

n the stock market, there are always ample reasons to sell. When the “March stock market massacre” occurred, investors wondered whether they should sell because the market seemed likely to fall further. Now, however, as the market appears poised to continue rising both more significantly and more rapidly, many are confused about whether to sell.Investors who sold stocks when the market was near its bear market lows a few months ago often suffer more with their positions than those currently contemplating a sale. Every time you need to make a major change in your asset allocation, the decision is difficult—especially as retirement approaches, when your human capital diminishes and you have less time to endure a painful bear market compared to younger investors.According to Fidelity and the Wall Street Journal, older investors tend to sell more during bear markets than younger ones. Fidelity’s data show that nearly one-third of investors aged 65 and above sold most of their holdings between February and May, and 18% of all customers completely liquidated their positions. I have discussed with many investors who wanted to sell in March; many were concerned about how prolonged downturns might affect their retirement plans. I fully understand why these retirees feel that their happiness is closely tied to their portfolios. The U.S. stock market enjoyed gains for 10 out of 11 years until 2020. This crisis was even likened to a second version of the Great Depression of the 1930s.We are indeed living in frightening times.However, fear and panic are not sufficient or valid reasons to sell. Waiting to sell until the market stabilizes can be a disastrous strategy. Even valuation-based market timing indicators have become almost useless—something anyone who has traded based on fundamentals over the past 20–30 years can attest to.A bear market is one of the worst times to completely overturn your asset allocation, because your decision-making ability is often clouded by emotion.So, when should you sell all or part of your stock holdings?When It’s Time for RebalancingGoing all in or completely exiting your position are among the riskiest moves in investing. While you might occasionally be influenced by luck, in reality you tend to sell before a major bull market begins or buy before a significant bear market sets in. Unless you have a rules-based investment strategy that you can stick to for a lifetime, extreme strategies like these are prone to leading to huge mistakes at the worst possible time.The simplest sell strategy is to adjust your portfolio allocation according to predetermined targets or timelines. For example, after the stock market rose by more than 30% in 2019, some investors sold part of their stock holdings to purchase bonds, cash, or other investments—only to see the stock market surge afterward. Then, after the market fell by over 30% this spring and bonds played a key role in a balanced portfolio, they sold bonds to buy more stocks. Today, those stocks are up 40%—a truly remarkable decision.When Diversification Is NeededI have seen many investors who allocated most of their retirement assets to the stock market instead of bonds. This strategy isn’t for the faint of heart—it works for pure savers who can endure short-term financial pain.When your investment period ends and retirement forces you to start drawing down your assets, a new dynamic comes into play. No one wants to be forced to sell stocks in a depressed bear market just to meet expenses. Even the most risk-tolerant investors eventually feel the need to cover expenses with cash or bonds.A severe bear market might not be the ideal time to seize an investment opportunity, but a significant bull market is never a bad time to re-evaluate your diversified portfolio.When You Realize You’ve Misunderstood the Investment ThemeThis is particularly relevant for those holding concentrated positions in individual stocks or niche ETFs. Every investor should regularly check whether their entry and exit points for an unexplained investment idea are still valid.This is more difficult than it seems. Questions like, “What if I wait until I just break even?” or “What if I sell and it immediately soars?” are common pitfalls that can be seen in losing positions.When You’ve Won Big in the GameIf you’ve been fortunate enough to accumulate an enormous sum—say, 20 to 25 times your expected retirement expenses—and have managed your spending habits well, you might eventually ask yourself, “What’s the point of continuing to take risks?”In a world where risk-free returns are available, such decisions would be trivial. However, the environment where you can simply live off interest from high-quality bonds no longer exists.Yet, if you have sufficient surplus funds to defend against inflation for the rest of your life, you might find that it becomes increasingly difficult to bear the myriad market risks in your portfolio.When You Need to Reassess Your Risk Profile or Adjust for a Change in Investment Period or EnvironmentMost investors believe that portfolio changes should be driven solely by market characteristics. Consider factors like the CAPE ratio, interest rates, Tobin’s Q formula, the A/D line, investor sentiment, and short-, medium-, and long-term performance metrics.Understanding the past and present market conditions can help guide your future decisions, though not every portfolio decision needs to be based solely on market fundamentals.Additionally, consider how your current environment affects your risk tolerance. You might need to reduce risk exposure if you find yourself in a better situation than expected—perhaps you’ve received an unexpected windfall or spent less than anticipated.If you don’t have a clear understanding of your investment goals from the start, building a portfolio becomes nearly impossible.While the market is critically important, you must always base your decisions on your own environment and goals.<Source: awealthofcommonsense>

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8 'Secret Principles' for Selling Stocks (Feb 25, 2025)

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8 'Secret Principles' for Selling Stocks (Feb 25, 2025)

This article offers eight pieces of advice on determining when to sell stocks—a decision that is often more psychologically challenging than buying. The key is to make objective decisions that minimize losses and secure profits without being swayed by emotions.Everyone Makes Mistakes. Cut Your Losses:When losses occur, don’t wait for the stock to fall further—exit quickly. Let go of your pride and don’t be attached to your losses.If You Don't Sell Too Early, You'll Sell Too Late:To secure definite profits, you should sell while the stock is on an upward trend. It is advisable to follow a sell rule when a stock gains 20–25% from the entry point.Plan Your Exit Before You Buy:Without predefined sell rules and a clear exit strategy, investors may become blinded by greed during a rapid price surge or hesitate to sell when losses occur. Set a target sell price in advance.Don’t Let Good Profits Turn into Losses:If a stock that has gained 10–15% begins to turn downward, do not let the profit evaporate entirely. Securing even a modest profit of 5–10% is better than risking it all.Don’t Marry Your Stocks—Just Date Them:Blind loyalty to a stock is dangerous. Lock in your gains when the opportunity arises, and if problems occur, be willing to end the relationship without hesitation.Sell Your Losers First:It is a mistake to sell profitable stocks while holding on to those that are underperforming. Sell the losing stocks and reinvest in the winners.When Buying, Look at Both Fundamentals and Charts; When Selling, Focus on Charts:Technical analysis often gives warning signals before fundamental issues become apparent. Use price and volume trends, moving averages, and other technical indicators to decide when to sell.The Most Important Buy Rule is Buying at the Right Time:If you buy at the wrong time, it becomes much harder to determine the proper exit point. Confirm three key factors—market trend, new growth drivers, and institutional investor support—before purchasing.

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Introducing a Step-by-Step Selling Strategy (Jul 22, 2024)

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Introducing a Step-by-Step Selling Strategy (Jul 22, 2024)

It feels great when you pick a stock that performs well. However, you wouldn’t want to miss the ball at the 1-yard line. When you score a touchdown, you want to capture every bit of the associated gains. Today, I want to discuss how to scale back a position that has worked in your favor—a method to lock in the profits you’ve successfully earned. Even when the market is moving perfectly in your favor, you need a clear sell rule.There are three key points at which you should strongly consider selling part of your position after a stock has risen significantly from its initial buying point:When you achieve a 20–25% profit range.When the stock extends 10–15% above its 10-day moving average.When it breaks above the 10-day or 21-day moving average lines.Sell Rule 1After a breakout, once the stock has risen 20%, you might wonder if it could go 50% or even 100% higher—and if there isn’t a sell signal such as a break below the 50-day moving average, why hold it?At first, this may seem counterintuitive. However, experience quickly teaches you that the 20–25% range often represents an ideal point to secure profits and eliminate the risk of losing that initial 20% gain.Studies indicate that most growth stocks tend to establish a new base after rising 20–25% from the entry point. It’s a good rule to secure at least part of your gains. You don’t need to sell your entire position; consider selling as little as 25% or even 20% of your holding.Sell Rule 2When a stock is strongly rising, you may see it extend above its 10-day moving average by 10–15%—in addition to breaking above the 21-day and 50-day moving averages. This is generally an excellent time to sell an additional 25% or 20% of your position. The 50-day moving average is available on all IBD charts on Investors.com.Sell Rule 3It is reasonable to expect a pullback once a stock has extended above its 10-day moving average following an upswing—no stock can keep rising forever. Investors might use the 21-day moving average as a safety line. When a stock falls below either of these moving averages, it is a good time to sell the remaining shares you hold.However, if the stock clearly drops below the 50-day moving average (or the 10-week moving average on weekly charts), it’s time to sell all of your remaining position. A break of these lines on heavy volume adds further reason to sell.Such a break indicates that institutional investors are no longer supporting the stock during a decline. Selling below its previous high will help avoid even greater losses.

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When Should You Sell Dividend Stocks? (Jul 10, 2020)

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When Should You Sell Dividend Stocks? (Jul 10, 2020)

Dividend stock investing offers numerous advantages—it can help protect your principal and boost your income. Well-managed, growing companies generate cash flows that can be distributed to shareholders, but their stock prices do not always rise. This raises an important question: “When should you sell your dividend stocks?”Some investors become so devoted to dividend stocks that they never sell, viewing periodic volatility and even occasional dividend cuts as merely part of the market’s ups and downs. However, for income-focused investors, determining the optimal time to sell can be particularly challenging. Will a decline in a stock’s value recover quickly? Even if dividends are cut, does the stock still have long-term upside potential?As Jim Cramer famously said, “Paper profits are not the same as money in the bank.”Below are five useful warning signals that can help you establish an exit strategy and make rational sell decisions to protect your assets.Warning Signal #1: Deteriorating Cash FlowWhen assessing whether a company can sustain its dividend, the first thing to examine is its cash position. Both the cash on the balance sheet and its ability to generate cash flow are critical. If a company’s cash flow deteriorates or it accumulates an enormous amount of debt, its ability to pay dividends will likewise weaken.Warning Signal #2: Declining Credit RatingsThis signal was particularly evident among energy companies in 2016. Renowned energy stocks such as Chevron Corp. (CVX) and Mobil Corp. (XOM) saw their credit ratings downgraded by agencies like Moody’s. Generally, a decline in credit ratings forewarns of an impending formal downgrade, which indicates higher borrowing costs when issuing new debt. Consequently, companies often resort to significant dividend cuts to preserve cash flow and protect their credit ratings.Warning Signal #3: Weak Fundamental MetricsEarnings seasons reveal which companies can sustain share repurchase programs and dividend payments. Companies with weak fundamentals—unable to boost cash flow through revenue or earnings growth—must find ways to bridge the gap and secure cash. Typically, the first step is to halt share repurchase programs, followed by cutting dividends if necessary.Warning Signal #4: Suspension of Share Repurchase ProgramsAs of July 2020, a low interest rate environment spurred an aggressive wave of share repurchases, as companies issued low-cost bonds to fund buybacks, thereby reducing the number of shares outstanding and boosting the value of the remaining stock. However, when a company scales back or stops its repurchase program, it can be a red flag—often indicating that it either lacks sufficient cash to support the program or has taken on too much debt. Without enough cash to continue repurchases, dividends may become the next target for cuts.Warning Signal #5: Falling Stock Prices and Rising Dividend YieldsWhen a company faces financial stress, it may resort to unsustainable measures to maintain its dividend. For instance, it might cut costs or divert funds originally earmarked for capital expenditures to pay dividends, or it might increase debt or sell shares to secure additional funding for dividend payments. The interesting aspect is that when these measures occur, the dividend yield may appear more attractive to income-hungry investors simply because the stock price has fallen. However, if investors fail to examine the underlying reasons for the rising yield, the company may ultimately be unable to sustain the dividend, leading to severe consequences when a cut eventually occurs.

Neutral

NONE

No Relevant Stock

Germany Finally Commits to Massive Spending—How Is the Market Reacting? (Mar 5, 2025)

Neutral

Deutsche Bank

Germany Finally Commits to Massive Spending—How Is the Market Reacting? (Mar 5, 2025)

By The Wall Street JournalGermany has announced plans for large-scale spending on defense and infrastructure, marking a major shift from its traditionally tight fiscal policy. This move is expected to stimulate the economy and positively impact the European defense industry. The news sent German stock markets soaring. The DAX index rose 3.4%, while the MDAX index, which focuses on mid-sized companies, surged more than 6%, marking its biggest single-day gain in years. Infrastructure and construction-related firms saw notable gains, with Heidelberg Materials and Bilfinger climbing 18%, while Kion, a forklift manufacturer, surged 20%. Defense and aerospace stocks also saw significant gains. Rheinmetall, Germany’s leading defense contractor, jumped 7.2%, while Airbus, the French aircraft manufacturer, rose 2.4%. Expectations of increased European defense budgets further fueled a rally in the sector. The banking sector also surged, with Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank both gaining over 10%, reflecting the market’s positive sentiment.In the foreign exchange market, the euro strengthened by over 1%, approaching $1.10 against the U.S. dollar.However, the bond market reacted sharply. As the German government prepares to issue more bonds to fund its increased spending, bond prices fell and yields spiked. The 10-year German bond yield rose to 2.8%, marking the biggest single-day increase since 1990.The announcement is also politically significant. Friedrich Merz, the frontrunner for Germany’s next chancellor following last month’s election, called the decision a "historic turning point" for the country. He emphasized that with Europe’s freedom and peace under threat, Germany must take necessary action.Merz and his coalition government plan to create a $530 billion (approximately €500 billion) infrastructure fund and exempt defense spending exceeding 1% of GDP from Germany’s constitutional debt limit rules. The proposal will be officially debated in the German Parliament next week.Deutsche Bank described the policy as "one of the most significant shifts in Germany’s post-war economic history." The bank also raised its euro exchange rate target and signaled a potential upward revision of Germany’s economic growth forecast.Germany’s massive fiscal spending is expected to boost economic growth, with defense and infrastructure sectors among the biggest beneficiaries. However, the stronger euro and rising German bond yields are likely to have far-reaching effects on European financial markets in the coming months.

Neutral

Deutsche Bank

As inflation bites and America’s mood darkens, higher-income consumers are cutting back, too(May 16, 2022)

Sell

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

As inflation bites and America’s mood darkens, higher-income consumers are cutting back, too(May 16, 2022)

With as much as 60% of U.S. consumers living paycheck to paycheck, it’s not a surprise to see that the spending cutbacks have started. Even with a strong job market and wage gains, as well as Covid stimulus savings, price spikes in core spending categories including food, gas and shelter are leading more Americans to mind their pocketbooks closely.A new survey from CNBC and Momentive finds rising concerns about inflation and the risk of recession and Americans saying that not only have they started buying less but that they’ll buy less across more categories if inflation persists. But these financial stress points are not limited to lower-income consumers. The survey finds Americans with incomes of at least $100,000 saying they’ve cut back on spending or may soon do so in numbers that are not far off the decisions being made by lower-income groups.The high-income consumer demographic is key to the economy. While it represents only one-third of consumers, it is responsible for up to three-quarters of the spending. “If the high-income consumers are out buying, we won’t see a big impact on raw consumer activity,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.Lower-income households are the most at risk, and they are the ones most likely to be making unwelcome tradeoffs to make their money stretch as far as it did just a few months ago, according to the survey results. They are also clearly experiencing more financial anxiety, according to the survey, with 57% of Americans with income under $50,000 saying they are under more stress than a year ago, versus 45% of those with incomes of $100,000 or more. The 68% of high-income consumers who said they are worried higher prices will force them to rethink financial decisions is significantly lower than the 82% of Americans with income of $50,000 or less who told the survey this, but it is still a majority.More than half of people with household incomes under $50,000 say they have already cut back on multiple expenses due to prices, and for those with income of at least $100,000, the cutback levels are already similar when it comes to dining out, taking vacations, and buying a car.“People making six-figure incomes are almost as worried about inflation as people making half as much —and they are just as likely to be taking steps to mitigate its effect on their lives,” said Laura Wronski, senior manager of research science at Momentive. “Inflation is a problem that compounds over time, and even high-income individuals won’t be insulated from the second- and third-order effects of price increases.”The University of Michigan Survey of Consumers finds more consumers mentioning reduced living standards due to rising inflation than at any other time in the survey’s history except during the two worst recessions in the past 50 years: from March 1979 to April 1981 and from May to October 2008. Notably, the consumer confidence gap between low- and high-income levels always shrinks at cyclical troughs and is always widest at peak, and the gap is narrowing now, according to survey director Richard Curtin. In January, the percentage point gap between the lowest-income group and highest-income group in the survey’s sentiment index was 13.2 points. That was erased in March, with the top-income group sentiment actually dipping below the lowest-income bracket in overall sentiment and future expectations. In January, the higher-income group expectations, specifically, were 18 percentage points higher.Right now, there is a unique set of issues that could be exacerbating this gap narrowing, Curtin said, including the potential for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to do more damage to the global economy than forecast and the fact that the majority of the population has not experienced 10%+ inflation, or 15% mortgage rates, as past generations had.“Even at lower rates they may display behaviors associated with more extreme economic conditions in the past,” Curtin said. “Precautionary motives play a big part in consumption trends for upper income groups.”“The American consumer is in a dark mood,” Zandi said of the CNBC survey data. It’s been more than two years since the pandemic hit, first with millions of lost jobs and high unemployment, and now high inflation, and “fractured politics also weighing heavily on the collective psyche.”All income groups in the survey are equally likely to say the economy will enter a recession this year, at over 80%. But there is a key caveat: Spending actions from the economy don’t yet indicate this prediction will come true.Despite the downbeat feelings about their financial situations, and the cutbacks, consumers are still spending strongly, Zandi emphasized. There are now lots of jobs, unemployment is low, debt loads are light, asset prices are high, and there is a lot of excess saving. Even if people are cutting back, spending less on some items, the mood has not yet taken control of the spending motivation to a degree that amounts to more than a slowdown in economic growth. “I suspect the American consumer will continue spending, regardless of their mood, as long as the job market remains strong,” Zandi said.

Sell

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

5 signs the world is headed for a recession(Oct 2, 2022)

Sell

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

5 signs the world is headed for a recession(Oct 2, 2022)

Around the world, markets are flashing warning signs that the global economy is teetering on a cliff’s edge.The question of a recession is no longer if, but when.Over the past week, the pulse of those flashing red lights quickened as markets grappled with the reality — once speculative, now certain — that the Federal Reserve will press on with its most aggressive monetary tightening campaign in decades to wring inflation from the US economy. Even if that means triggering a recession. And even if it comes at the expense of consumers and businesses far beyond US borders.There’s now a 98% chance of a global recession, according to research firm Ned Davis, which brings some sobering historical credibility to the table. The firm’s recession probability reading has only been this high twice before — in 2008 and 2020.When economists warn of a downturn, they’re typically basing their assessment on a variety of indicators.Let’s unpack five key trends:The mighty US dollarThe US dollar plays an outsized role in the global economy and international finance. And right now, it is stronger than it’s been in two decades.The simplest explanation comes back to the Fed.When the US central bank raises interest rates, as it has been doing since March, it makes the dollar more appealing to investors around the world.In any economic climate, the dollar is seen as a safe place to park your money. In a tumultuous climate — a global pandemic, say, or a war in Eastern Europe — investors have even more incentive to purchase dollars, usually in the form of US government bonds.While a strong dollar is a nice perk for Americans traveling abroad, it creates headaches for just about everyone else.The value of the UK pound, the euro, China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, among many others, has tumbled. That makes it more expensive for those nations to import essential items like food and fuel.In response, central banks that are already fighting pandemic-induced inflation wind up raising rates higher and faster to shore up the value of their own currencies.The dollar’s strength also creates destabilizing effects for Wall Street, as many of the S&P 500 companies do business around the world. By one estimate from Morgan Stanley, each 1% rise in the dollar index has a negative 0.5% impact on S&P 500 earnings.America’s economic engine stallsThe No. 1 driver of the world’s largest economy is shopping. And America’s shoppers are tired.After more than a year of rising prices on just about everything, with wages not keeping up, consumers have pulled back.“The hardship caused by inflation means that consumers are dipping into their savings,” EY Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco said in a note Friday. The personal saving rate in August remained unchanged at only 3.5%, Daco said — near its lowest rate since 2008, and well below its pre-Covid level of around 9%.Once again, the reason behind the pullback has a lot to do with the Fed.Interest rates have risen at a historic pace, pushing mortgage rates to their highest level in more than a decade and making it harder for businesses to grow. Eventually, the Fed’s rate hikes should broadly bring costs down. But in the meantime, consumers are getting a one-two punch of high borrowing rates and high prices, especially when it comes to necessities like food and housing.Americans opened their wallets during the 2020 lockdowns, which powered the economy out of its brief-but-severe pandemic recession. Since then, government aid has evaporated and inflation has taken root, pushing prices up at their fastest rate in 40 years and sapping consumers’ spending power.Corporate America tightens its beltBusiness has been booming across industries for the bulk of the pandemic era, even with historically high inflation eating into profits. That is thanks (once again) to the tenacity of American shoppers, as businesses were largely able to pass on their higher costs to consumers to cushion profit margins.But the earnings bonanza may not last.In mid-September, one company whose fortunes serve as a kind of economic bellwether gave investors a shock.FedEx, which operates in more than 200 countries, unexpectedly revised its outlook, warning that demand was softening, and earnings were likely to plunge more than 40%.In an interview, its CEO was asked whether he believes the slowdown was a sign of a looming global recession.“I think so,” he responded. “These numbers, they don’t portend very well.”FedEx isn’t alone. On Tuesday, Apple’s stock fell after Bloomberg reported the company was scrapping plans to increase iPhone 14 production after demand came in below expectations.And just ahead of the holiday season, when employers would normally ramp up hiring, the mood is now more cautious.“We’ve not seen the normal September uptick in companies posting for temporary help,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter. “Companies are hanging back and waiting to see what conditions hold.”Welcome to bear territoryWall Street has been hit with whiplash, and stocks are now on track for their worst year since 2008 — in case anyone needs yet another scary historical comparison.But last year was a very different story. Equity markets thrived in 2021, with the S&P 500 soaring 27%, thanks to a torrent of cash pumped in by the Federal Reserve, which unleashed a double-barreled monetary-easing policy in the spring of 2020 to keep financial markets from crumbling.The party lasted until early 2022. But as inflation set in, the Fed began to take away the proverbial punch bowl, raising interest rates and unwinding its bond-buying mechanism that had propped up the market.The hangover has been brutal. The S&P 500, the broadest measure of Wall Street — and the index responsible for the bulk of Americans’ 401(k)s — is down nearly 24% for the year. And it’s not alone. All three major US indexes are in bear markets — down at least 20% from their most recent highs.In an unfortunate twist, bond markets, typically a safe haven for investors when stocks and other assets decline, are also in a tailspin.FedEx isn’t alone. On Tuesday, Apple’s stock fell after Bloomberg reported the company was scrapping plans to increase iPhone 14 production after demand came in below expectations.And just ahead of the holiday season, when employers would normally ramp up hiring, the mood is now more cautious.“We’ve not seen the normal September uptick in companies posting for temporary help,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter. “Companies are hanging back and waiting to see what conditions hold.”Welcome to bear territoryWall Street has been hit with whiplash, and stocks are now on track for their worst year since 2008 — in case anyone needs yet another scary historical comparison.But last year was a very different story. Equity markets thrived in 2021, with the S&P 500 soaring 27%, thanks to a torrent of cash pumped in by the Federal Reserve, which unleashed a double-barreled monetary-easing policy in the spring of 2020 to keep financial markets from crumbling.The party lasted until early 2022. But as inflation set in, the Fed began to take away the proverbial punch bowl, raising interest rates and unwinding its bond-buying mechanism that had propped up the market.The hangover has been brutal. The S&P 500, the broadest measure of Wall Street — and the index responsible for the bulk of Americans’ 401(k)s — is down nearly 24% for the year. And it’s not alone. All three major US indexes are in bear markets — down at least 20% from their most recent highs.In an unfortunate twist, bond markets, typically a safe haven for investors when stocks and other assets decline, are also in a tailspin.Once again, blame the Fed.Inflation, along with the steep rise in interest rates by the central bank, has pushed bond prices down, which causes bond yields (aka the return an investor gets for their loan to the government) to go up.On Wednesday, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury briefly surpassed 4%, hitting its highest level in 14 years. That surge was followed by a steep drop in response to the Bank of England’s intervention in its own spiraling bond market — amounting to tectonic moves in a corner of the financial world that is designed to be steady, if not downright boring.European bond yields are also spiking as central banks follow the Fed’s lead in raising rates to shore up their own currencies.Bottom line: There are few safe places for investors to put their money right now, and that’s unlikely to change until global inflation gets under control and central banks loosen their grips.War, soaring prices and radical policies collideNowhere is the collision of economic, financial, and political calamities more painfully visible than in the United Kingdom.Like the rest of the world, the UK has struggled with surging prices that are largely attributable to the colossal shock of Covid-19, followed by the trade disruptions created by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As the West cut off imports of Russian natural gas, energy prices have soared and supplies have dwindled.Those events were bad enough on their own.But then, just over a week ago, the freshly installed government of Prime Minister Liz Truss announced a sweeping tax-cut plan that economists from both ends of the political spectrum have decried as unorthodox at best, diabolical at worst.In short, the Truss administration said it would slash taxes for all Britons to encourage spending and investment and, in theory, soften the blow of a recession. But the tax cuts aren’t funded, which means the government must take on debt to finance them.That decision set off a panic in financial markets and put Downing Street in a standoff with its independent central bank, the Bank of England. Investors around the world sold off UK bonds in droves, plunging the pound to its lowest level against the dollar in nearly 230 years. As in, since 1792, when Congress made the US dollar legal tender.The BOE staged an emergency intervention to buy up UK bonds on Wednesday and restore order in financial markets. It stemmed the bleeding, for now. But the ripple effects of the Trussonomics turmoil is spreading far beyond the offices of bond traders.Britons, who are already in a cost-of-living crisis, with inflation at 10% — the highest of any G7 economy — are now panicking over higher borrowing costs that could force millions of homeowners’ monthly mortgage payments to go up by hundreds or even thousands of pounds.The upshotWhile the consensus is that a global recession is likely sometime in 2023, it’s impossible to predict how severe it will be or how long it will last. Not every recession is as painful as the 2007-09 Great Recession, but every recession is, of course, painful.Some economies, particularly the United States, with its strong labor market and resilient consumers, will be able to withstand the blow better than others.“We are in uncharted waters in the months ahead,” wrote economists at the World Economic Forum in a report this week.“The immediate outlook for the global economy and for much of the world’s population is dark,” they continued, adding that the challenges “will test the resilience of economies and societies and exact a punishing human toll.”But there are some silver linings, they said. Crises force transformations that can ultimately improve standards of living and make economies stronger.“Businesses have to change. This has been the story since the pandemic started,” said Rima Bhatia, an economic adviser for Gulf International Bank. “Businesses no longer can continue on the path that they were at. That’s the opportunity and that’s the silver lining.”

Sell

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

Fed cuts rates for the third time as US economy slows(Oct 30, 2019)

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Fed cuts rates for the third time as US economy slows(Oct 30, 2019)

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time this year as the US economy continued slowing amid ongoing trade disputes and weak global growth.The federal funds rate, which affects the cost of mortgages, credit cards and other borrowing, will now hover between 1.5% and 1.75%.Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell strongly suggested at a press conference Wednesday that the Fed would hold rates steady for the foreseeable future. Powell said the current level is “likely to remain appropriate” given the Fed’s economic outlook of moderate economic growth, a strong labor market and inflation growing at around 2%.“If that changes, the Fed will respond accordingly,” Powell said.Rate cuts during an economic expansion aren’t common, but they aren’t unprecedented either. The Fed similarly made what former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan called “insurance cuts” in 1995 and 1998. The Fed quickly went back to rate hikes after those moves.Yet, despite the fact that there is little wiggle room left to cut rates further should the economy suddenly start shrinking, Powell said he doesn’t believe the Fed is about to start raising rates anytime soon.“We would need to see a really significant move up in inflation … before we would consider raising rates to address inflation concerns,” he said.Two voting members of the policy-setting committee – Kansas City Fed President Esther George and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren – dissented against the decision to lower interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point.Policymakers painted a mostly rosy picture of the US economy in their statement, pointing to “solid” job gains and household spending rising at a”strong pace,” but also noted that business investment and exports continued to “remain weak.”Powell noted that a potential “phase one” trade deal between the United States and China and signs that the UK may be able to orchestrate a smooth exit from the EU may mean that risks are less dire and could boost business confidence.“There’s plenty of risk left, but I have to say the risks seems to have subsided,” he said.Earlier in the day, Chile canceled the upcoming APEC summit in November where President Donald Trump was expected to sign a trade deal with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.Fed officials next meet in six weeks. They left some room open for further rate cuts by omitting certain language in their statement, but left some room for deviation by pointing to remaining “uncertainties” to the country’s economic outlook.“The committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate,” the statement read.The Fed chairman has been under pressure all year by Trump to continue juicing the economy by sharply cutting interest rates, which are already at historically low levels, as he seeks to bolster his chances of winning next year’s election in 2020.Data released earlier on Wednesday, however, showed the economy may be slowing, making Powell’s job even more difficult as he seeks to keep the country’s longest running economic expansion running.In the third quarter, the economy grew 1.9% according to initial data released by the Commerce Department. That was better than what Wall Street had been predicting, but still fell short of the Trump administration’s forecast of hitting 3% economic growth annually. It was also the second back-to-back reading well below this year’s first quarter report of 3.1%.While the fresh data shows the economy isn’t quite going off the road yet, consumers are now spending less than before just as manufacturing continues to contract and investment spending by businesses continues to decline.The US stock market moved higher Wednesday after the rate cut.“The Fed better put another log or two on the fire because the economy isn’t burning as bright as the Trump administration had hoped when they came into office and with an election just over a year away, the economy needs more stimulus if it is going to grow at a moderate pace,” wrote Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Two of the world’s biggest economies are at risk of recession(Nov 10, 2019)

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Two of the world’s biggest economies are at risk of recession(Nov 10, 2019)

Investors have recently put fears about the pace of global growth aside, opting for optimism on a “phase one” US-China trade deal. But muted economic data expected out of Europe this week could change the mood.Germany may post data Thursday indicating that it’s in recession. Economists surveyed by Reuters believe the world’s fourth largest economy shrank 0.1% between July and September — marking two straight quarters of negative growth.It’s possible that Germany — which has been hit by the trade war, as well as falling global demand for autos — just dodged a bullet. Exports unexpectedly rebounded in September, rising 1.5% compared to the previous month. August data was also revised upward.“With today’s data, a technical recession is not yet a done deal,” Carsten Brzeski, ING’s chief German economist, told clients, noting that Germany could have avoided another contraction “at the very last minute.”Recession or not, the reality is that Germany’s economy, the largest in Europe, looks very weak. A reminder of that could give investors a jolt.“The fact remains that the German economy has been in de facto stagnation for more than a year,” Brzeski said. “This is clearly nothing to become too cheerful about.”Not to be missed: Also on the calendar is Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress on the US economy, which takes place Wednesday and Thursday.Expect Powell to get grilled on where the Fed goes after three straight “insurance” cuts to interest rates. But he’s also likely to face questions on weak manufacturing and business investment data — and what it tells us about the strength of the world’s biggest economy.Up first: The United Kingdom will report GDP data on Monday. The country’s economy shrank for the first time since 2012 in the second quarter as global growth and Brexit fears loomed large — but economists polled by Reuters think the country will narrowly avoid a recession by notching 0.4% growth between July and September.

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Bonds up - a first in weeks(Nov 30, 1999)

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Bonds up - a first in weeks(Nov 30, 1999)

Treasury bonds rose Tuesday, their first major gains in two weeks, as the highest yields in a month drew investors into fixed-income securities. "Yields were near some of their highest levels of the year,� said Bill Hornbarger, fixed-income analyst at A.G. Edwards."You see some people interested in bonds at those levels.� Just before 3:15 p.m. ET, the price of the benchmark Treasury bond rose 10/32 to 97-27/32. Its yield, which moves inversely to its price, fell to 6.28 percent from 6.30 percent Monday. The gains came despite two economic reports Tuesday that showed the kind of inflation- suggesting strength that might typically spark a Treasury sell-off. The Conference Board's index of consumer sentiment surged to 135.8 in November from a revised 130.5 reading in October. Separately, the National Association of Purchasing Management said its Chicago prices paid index rose to 70.9 from 65.4. But David Ging, bond analyst at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, said Monday�s bond sell-off, which pushed yields to November highs, effectively discounted the day�s news of rising inflation, which erodes a bonds� value. Bond traders, Ging said, "are really looking at the payrolls data because that�s what (Federal Reserve chief Alan) Greenspan�s looking at.� That data comes Friday, when the Labor department�s last monthly jobs report of the year is expected to show the kind of labor market tightness that may lead to rising inflation, and help prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again. The November unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 4.1 percent, near a 30-year low. Economists polled by Reuters estimate that non-farm payrolls grew by 226,000 jobs in November. The Fed tightened credit three times this year in a bid to pre-empt inflation and cool an overheating economy. Analysts said bonds also got support Tuesday as falling oil prices eased concerns over rising inflation. In New York, light crude for January delivery fell 91 cents to $25.05 a barrel. "Oil prices have a lot to do with,� A.G. Edwards� Hornbarger said of Tuesday�s gains. Dollar stuck in the middle The yen rose Tuesday, nearing last week�s four-year high against the dollar, as traders shrugged off the Japanese government�s second effort in two days to weaken its currency. Worried about the strong yen�s drag on exports, the Bank of Japan�s latest effort to sell yen for dollars proved ineffective, as traders bet on Japan�s economic recovery by buying yen. "The market's current belief that U.S. and European monetary officials will not come to the assistance of their Japanese counterparts is rendering Bank of Japan intervention futile,� said Alex Beuzelin, market analyst at Ruesch International. Just before 3:15 p.m. ET, the yen rose to 101.95 from 102.70 Monday, a 0.73 percent increase in the yen�s value. Officials fret that a strengthening yen, because it makes exports tougher to sell, may derail the Asian nation's fragile economic recovery. Yen strength hurt Japanese stock market�s, which were pulled down by major exporters like Sony Corp. and Fujitsu Ltd. But the yen continues to strengthen as money floods into Japanese stocks, which must be bought in local currency. The euro, meanwhile, weakened against the dollar, keeping near lifetime lows versus the U.S. currency Just before 3:15 p.m. ET, it cost $1.0085 to buy one euro compared with $1.0100 Monday, a 0.15 percent drop in the euro�s value. Analysts recently have come to blame the slide of the euro, which has lost about 16 percent of its value in its 11-month lifespan, on uncertainty over the European Central Bank�s policy stance. "The ECB main challenge this week is to give the markets a clear message that it does not favor a precipitous decline in the euro,� Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette said in a note to clients Tuesday. "In our view, any further weakening of the euro below parity (with the dollar) may have to be met with stronger policy coordination than seen to date

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Bonds fall for 3rd session. Yields rise above key 6% level on fears of strong economic data(Aug 30, 1999)

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Bonds fall for 3rd session. Yields rise above key 6% level on fears of strong economic data(Aug 30, 1999)

Treasury bond prices fell for the third consecutive session Monday, sending yields to two-week highs, as the latest set of economic data suggested the economy continues to strengthen. Just before 3:30 p.m. ET, the price of the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond fell 1-8/32. Its yield, which moves inversely to the price, rose to 6.06 percent from Friday's close of 5.97 percent. Bonds immediately began falling after the Commerce Department said sales of new homes rose 0.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 980,000. The rate, well above expectations, is the second-highest ever and suggests the robust housing market is not letting up. Already, fears of an overheating economy have led the Federal Open Market Committee to raise short-term interest rates by a quarter percentage point in both June and August. Monday's housing data, coupled with a series of strong economic data this week, could provoke fears of another rate hike when the FOMC meets in October. Already, traders are looking toward Wednesday, when the National Association of Purchasing Management releases its closely watched index of manufacturing activity, which is expected to rise to 54.5 from 53.4 in July. "NAPM could be quite strong," said Josh Stiles, bond strategist at IDEA Global.com. Anthony Crescenzi, bond market strategist with Miller Tabak Hirsch & Co., agreed. "What we're seeing is an increase in the manufacturing sector," Crescenzi said "The manufacturing sector has been very weak for the last year and a half -- since the Asian (financial) crisis. Now, that sector seems to be recovering." A strong rebound in manufacturing, Crescenzi said, could lead to a 4 percent economic growth rate -- a number not consistent with low inflation. On Friday, the Labor Department releases August employment figures. Analysts expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.3 percent, near a 30-year low, with employers adding 206,000 non-farm jobs during the month. Full circle Explaining Monday's sell-off, traders also cited profit taking, saying the two-day bond rally following Tuesday's FOMC rate hike may have been overdone. Yields have "gotten back to where they were before they tightened," said Bruce Alston, who manages $1.5 billion in bonds for Value Line Asset Management. Also bearish for bonds, the price of oil Monday rose to its highest level since October 1997. Further, traders are worried about the market's ability to absorb an estimated $20 billion in new corporate bonds expected to sell in September. But analysts also noted the day's light trading volume, which can exaggerate the significance of price movements. "It's low volume, so a little selling goes a long way," Value Line's Alston said. Dollar weakens Further weighing on Treasurys, the dollar fell sharply against the yen. Just before 3:30 p.m. ET the U.S. currency slipped to 110.69 yen, almost a 1 percent drop from Friday's close of 111.77. The yen over the last several weeks has continued to strengthen against the dollar, helped by Japan's surging stock market and the belief the Asian nation is recovering from recession.Looking ahead, Tim Fox, currency analyst at Standard Charter Bank, sees the yen pushing higher against the dollar as long as Japanese stocks continue to gain. "A crucial aspect is going to be the Nikkei," Fox said of Tokyo's benchmark stock index. "The Nikkei has been driving the yen higher, trying to latch on to the strength of the Japanese stock market. If that continues, then dollar-yen will persist through that sort of 110 (yen) area, and perhaps break (through to) 108 later this year." The dollar, meanwhile, weakened slightly against the euro. Just before 3:30 p.m. ET, it cost $1.0463 to buy one euro compared with $1.0455 Friday, a 0.08 percent drop in the dollar's value.

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Nasdaq plummets. Index posts 7th largest point loss; strong retail sales data fuels rate hike fears(Dec 14, 1997)

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Nasdaq plummets. Index posts 7th largest point loss; strong retail sales data fuels rate hike fears(Dec 14, 1997)

U.S. stocks ended lower Tuesday, with the Nasdaq composite plunging late in the session. The index, along with the broader market, languished in negative territory throughout the day after a stronger-than-expected retail sales report ignited interest rate fears. In addition, sharp losses in the bond market weighed on stocks. "When the bond market sold off, it caused a drastic reaction in the tech sector and the Nasdaq. There is no company news to account for the big drop,� said Alan Skrainka, chief market strategist at Edward Jones. The Nasdaq composite index tumbled 86.51 points, or 2.36 percent, to 3,571.66. The drop was the seventh largest point loss in the history of the index. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 32.42 to 11,160.17, and the S&P 500 index retreated 12.05 to 1,403.17. Breadth was negative on the New York Stock Exchange with losers widely beating gainers 2,024 to 1,069. Trading volume reached a heavy 1 billion shares. Treasury prices plunged following the retail sales report, with the benchmark 30-year bond losing more than a point, raising its yield to 6.29 percent from 6.19 percent late Monday. In currency markets, the dollar rose against both the yen and the euro. Investors digest key economic news Market participants digested conflicting data on the U.S. economy. The strong retail sales report sparked some interest-rate worries despite a separate report pointing to tame inflation. Analysts said inflation was holding steady following the Consumer Price Index release. The CPI, a measure of inflation at the retail level, rose 0.1 percent in November, the Labor Department said. The number was less than analysts� expectations of a 0.2 percent gain. The core rate, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2 percent, in line with expectations. But retail sales data were more troublesome. Retail sales advanced at a 0.9 percent pace in November, well above economists� expectations of a 0.5 percent increase, fueling some concerns about rate hikes. Gary Schlossberg, senior economist at Wells Capital Management, said retail sales were the real surprise. "The retail sales number implies consumer spending is running well above its long-term average,� he said. The two reports are significant, analysts noted, since they are the last key economic releases that Federal Reserve policy makers will have to consider in determining interest rates at their Dec. 21 meeting. The economic news particularly weighed on financial stocks. The sector is highly sensitive to interest rates due to the stronger probability of borrowers defaulting on their loans when interest rates rise, therefore hurting corporate earnings. Among the Dow components, American Express (AXP) fell 5-13/16 to 160-1/2, Citigroup (C) retreated 1-13/16 to 53-1/2 and J.P. Morgan (JPM) declined 3-5/16 to 131-1/4. Nasdaq tumbles In a late selloff, the Nasdaq plunged after languishing in negative territory throughout the session. Analysts noted a lack of leadership weighed on the market, particularly in the usually strong technology sector. "All the sizzling hot stocks are taking a breather. Investors are reluctant to look elsewhere when the hot stocks are down,� said Charles Payne, head analyst at Wall Street Strategies. The weakness in technology followed the Nasdaq�s 52nd record close of the year Monday. Analysts said many participants were willing to stay on the sidelines. However, many strategists were unconcerned by Tuesday�s market performance. Michael Carty, stock market strategist at New Millennium Advisors, a New York investment firm, said the losses would not be long lasting. "The economy is very strong and interest rates are likely to remain stable. There are many stocks out there with strong potential earnings,� he said. Among the top Nasdaq gainers, 3Com Corp. (COMS), the world's second-largest maker of computer networking products, surged 5-13/16, or nearly 13 percent, to 50-5/8 after the company filed an initial public offering for its Palm Computing unit. Palm makes the No. 1 electronic organizer. But 3Com rivals suffered. Cisco Systems (CSCO) retreated 3-1/4 to 97-15/16, and Lucent Technologies (LU) dipped 2-1/2 to 77-1/4. Internet issues were in the red despite reports of some potential partnerships with major retailers. Yahoo! (YHOO) and the nation�s No. 3 retailer Kmart (KM) are expected to unveil an alliance to offer co-branded Internet access, according to the Wall Street Journal. Yahoo! fell 17-15/16 to 333-1/8, while Kmart rose 9/16 to 12-1/16. The report follows speculation of a potential marketing alliance between America Online (AOL) and Wal-Mart Stores (WMT), the world's No. 1 retailer. AOL slumped 5-3/4 to 88-1/4 and Wal-Mart, a component of the Dow industrials, inched down 15/16 to 67-1/16. The blue chips benefited from gains to Dow component Microsoft (MSFT). Its stock advanced 2-1/16 to 98-11/16 amid rumors that the world's No. 1 software company may be near a settlement of the U.S. government�s landmark antitrust case. However, a Justice Department spokeswoman told CNNfn the rumors were unfounded.��

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Bonds fall for third day(Dec 15, 1999)

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Bonds fall for third day(Dec 15, 1999)

Treasury bonds fell for the third straight session Wednesday, pushing yields to the highest levels of the month, as a series of inflation-suggesting factors kept alive fears of another Federal Reserve interest rate hike ahead. Just before 3:15 p.m. ET, the price of the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond fell 13/32 to 97-5/32. Its yield, which moves inversely to the price, rose to a December high of 6.33 percent, from 6.30 percent Tuesday. Explaining the day�s losses, analysts cited a host of signs of strong economic growth that could ignite inflation and prompt the Fed to raise interest rates again. "Where�s the (economic) slowdown?� asked Josh Stiles, bond market strategist at IDEAGlobal.com. "We�re not seeing it.� Negatives include rising oil prices, surging stock markets and fears that Thursday�s trade report could lead to an upward revision of the nation�s gross domestic product. Light sweet crude oil for February delivery gained 35 cents to $25.80 a barrel Wednesday, igniting fears that gains in the widely used commodity will show up in closely watched inflation gauges like the Consumer Price index. Stocks rose again Wednesday, in a phenomenon that economists say creates the kind of paper wealth that leads to increased consumer spending. "Bonds are reacting a little poorly to the rebound in equities,� said Bruce Alston, who manages $1.5 billion in bonds for Value Line Asset Management. Just Tuesday, retails sales jumped a larger-than-expected 0.9 percent, prompting a major bond market sell-off. Wednesday�s data did not help. U.S. industrial production rose steadily in November as manufacturing businesses hit their fastest stride in a year. Tony Crescenzi, bond analyst at Miller Tabak & Co. mentioned a concern that Thursday�s international trade report for October could show a trade deficit wide enough to prompt an upward revision in the nation�s gross domestic product. "If the trade deficit is reported lower than the consensus estimate of $24.2 billion, this will force GDP estimates still higher toward 6 percent -- a level reached just four times in the past 15 years,� Crescenzi said. That would only add to the view that the Fed, the nation�s central bank, will have to raise rates again to cool an overheating economy. Fed officials gather Dec. 21, but with the meeting so close to potential Y2K worries they are expected to keep their main lending rate unchanged at 5.50 percent. But analysts say a rate hike likely will come at the next Fed gathering in February unless the economy shows signs of slowing. The Fed tightened credit three times since June in a bid to preempt inflation and stem the rapid pace of economic growth. Dollar mixed The dollar kept to a tight range Wednesday, rising modestly against the yen but falling slightly versus the euro. Analysts cited no fresh fundamental reasons behind the day�s limited dollar movements. Just before 3:15 p.m. ET, the euro rose to $1.0069 from $1.0056 Tuesday. Despite the slight gains, analysts say another test for the euro below dollar parity is still possible as long as the U.S. economy continues to outperform Europe�s. "The U.S. economy's strong rate of growth combined with low inflation remains very dollar supportive,� Ruesch International said in a note to clients Wednesday. �Parity in euro/dollar remains a very realistic objective for traders today.� The battered euro, which has lost about 16 percent of its value since its January inception, first fell below $1 two weeks ago. The dollar, meanwhile, rose to 103.68 yen from 103.45 Tuesday, continuing a trend begun Monday.

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Palin sparks fashion frenzy: Women rush to buy rimless glasses(Sept. 12. 2008)

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Palin sparks fashion frenzy: Women rush to buy rimless glasses(Sept. 12. 2008)

Republican vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin is doing for glasses what “Friends” star Jennifer Aniston did for hair in the early 1990s.The rimless glasses that Palin wore during her acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention are flying off the shelves nationwide, including in Hampton.The fashionable frames, made by the Japanese company Kawasaki, have even caught the notice of Trendhunter.com, a Web site that prides itself on tracking the hottest trends across the globe.The site announced that Palin has fueled what they call “a designer-eyeglasses frenzy.”William “Sully” Sullivan, who owns Hampton Vision Center in downtown Hampton, agreed.“She is bringing life again to the rimless drill-mount fashion,” said Sullivan. “We have been selling the rimless glasses for a while, but sales have slowed down a bit. Now that she is wearing it, it’s become very popular again.”The shop, located at 28 Depot Square, is currently sold out of the Kawasaki frames, but they should be back in stock within the next week or so.Sullivan said a lot of people came into his shop in the last few weeks asking specifically about the "Sarah Palin glasses.”The attraction, he says, is that she looks good in eyewear.“It’s kind of the rage right now,” he said. “People are seeing it on her and they are curious about what she is wearing. They see how good it looks on her and wonder what it would look like on them.”He doesn’t remember this much hoopla over a frame since former MSNBC anchor Ashleigh Banfield caused a stir with her square-rimmed Lafont eyeglasses.The newly dubbed Palin frames, not including lenses, sell in the range of $300 to $500.Rimless glasses are available for both men and women and the vision center has several different types of frames at varying prices.“When they first came out, they became popular because they were different and they were lightweight,” Sullivan said. “It also gives the appearance with anti-reflective coating that you’re not wearing glasses at all.”But the store owner warned that not everyone may want to jump on the Sarah Palin eyeglass bandwagon.“Not everyone’s face shape can wear what she is wearing,” he said. “But if not, we can put them in something similar that suits their face shape in style.”

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Fed Makes Emergency 0.75% Rate Cut(Jan. 22, 2008)

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Fed Makes Emergency 0.75% Rate Cut(Jan. 22, 2008)

The Federal Reserve, responding to an international stock sell-off and the likelihood of a sharp drop in America on Tuesday morning, cut its benchmark interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point.The Federal Open Market Committee lowered its target for the federal funds rate on overnight loans between banks to 3.5 percent, from 4.25 percent.In a statement, the Fed said: “The committee took this action in view of a weakening of the economic outlook and increasing downside risks to growth. While strains in short-term funding markets have eased somewhat, broader financial market conditions have continued to deteriorate and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households.”“Moreover,” the statement continued, “incoming information indicates a deepening of the housing contraction as well as some softening in labor markets.”In a related action, the Fed approved a 75 basis-point decrease in the discount rate, to 4 percent.Within minutes after the announcement, trading in stock-index futures, which had been presaging a deep slide on American stock exchanges Tuesday, retraced much of their earlier declines, which had been driven by a second sour day in Asia and Europe.Stock markets across Asia plunged even farther and faster on Tuesday than they had on Monday, as anxious sellers dumped huge numbers of shares on worries that an economic slowdown in the United States could drag down growth around the world.The European stock markets initially followed their Asian counterparts lower, plunging at the opening and then see-sawing back and forth in frenzied trading as investors looked to the start on Wall Street for direction. After the Fed announcement, they had made up those losses and moved into positive territory. But the rate cut was too late for Asian markets, which had already closed.A decade after a credit crisis in Southeast Asia triggered an “Asian contagion” of stock market declines around the world, the credit crisis in the United States is now producing an “American contagion” to which no stock market seems immune.Heavy selling hit each Asian and European stock market as soon as it opened. Some of Asia’s easternmost exchanges, which had closed on Monday before the sharpest declines occurred in India and then Europe, suffered particularly steep drops.

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Energy costs drive February wholesale prices up 1%; biggest jump since 1990(March 16, 2000)

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Energy costs drive February wholesale prices up 1%; biggest jump since 1990(March 16, 2000)

U.S. producer prices posted their biggest monthly jump in almost 10 years in February, reflecting a surge in crude oil prices, the government reported Thursday. However, the core rate, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, advanced at a more moderate pace. The Producer Price Index jumped 1 percent last month, the Labor Department said, exceeding the 0.6 percent increase expected and above January's flat reading. It was the biggest jump in the main index since October 1990. The core rate, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.3 percent, in line with expectations and reversing January's 0.2 percent drop.Stripping out huge advances in energy and tobacco prices, inflation posted only a moderate advance last month -- suggesting to financial markets that the Federal Reserve's inflation-fighting interest rate increases may not come as fast and furious as many had been anticipating. "Oil prices are important for the economy, but there continues to be no evidence that these increases are being monetized and passed on into the general structure of prices," said John Ryding, senior economist with Bear Stearns Inc. "We continue to expect that the Fed will boost rates by only 25 basis points at next week's (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting."The Dow Jones industrial average -- comprised of 30 companies that are generally more sensitive to rising interest rates -- took off at the opening bell as investors concluded that earnings will not be as significantly impacted by higher borrowing costs. Bonds also gained ground as investors gained reassurance that wholesale inflation remains subdued -- at least for the time being.Tame costs on the production line typically mean stable consumer prices, because producers do not have the rising costs that are typically passed on to buyers. Fed officials meet next Tuesday in Washington to discuss monetary policy and the direction of short-term lending rates. Most Wall Street analysts expect the Fed will wrench up its benchmark rate for overnight loans between banks by another quarter point. That would be the fifth quarter-point increase since June. The rate now stands at 5.75 percent. After today's numbers, some analysts expect the Fed may not have to press so hard on the brakes to slow down the economy. While most expect the U.S. economy to post growth upwards of 5 percent in the first three months of the year, very little evidence of accelerating inflation has emerged -- the main reason behind the Fed's recent spate of rate hikes. ABS brakes? "Most people were afraid that we'd start to see some inflation, but I don't think there's much here," said Robert Brusca, chief economist with Ecobest Consulting. "The Fed still has its foot on brakes and will keep tapping them at regular intervals, but perhaps not as much as investors had been expecting." (369KB WAV) (369KB AIFF)Indeed, almost all of February's gains came in the form of rising energy and tobacco prices. Energy prices for producers jumped 5.2 percent in February, the biggest increase since October 1990, reflecting a whopping 30.6 percent surge in the cost of home heating oil and a 12.9 percent jump in prices at the pumps for gasoline. In January, producers' energy costs rose 0.7 percent. Those increases mirrored the recent surge in oil prices, which have almost tripled in price to as high as $34 a barrel in the past 14 months, reflecting concerns that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would not boost its output next month to prevent global shortages. Tobacco prices, meanwhile, jumped 5.6 percent, more than reversing January's 4.2 percent drop. Cigarette prices rose 6.3 percent as manufacturers such as Philip Morris Cos. (MO: Research, Estimates) raised U.S. cigarette prices to distributors by 13 cents a pack, or about 7 percent. New York State also boosted taxes on cigarettes last month, raising the price on a single pack of 20 cigarettes to around $4.50 from around $4.Where's the inflation? In other categories, food prices increased a moderate 0.4 percent in February, after rising 0.1 percent in January. Prices for new computers fell 3.3 percent, car prices fell 1.2 percent, and prescription drug prices declined 0.2 percent. Intermediate goods prices rose 0.8 percent last month, while crude goods prices rose 4.2 percent. So why aren't prices rising? For one, there's productivity. Advances in technology have made companies better at producing and delivering wholesale goods cheaply and efficiently without raising their costs, ensuring prices at the retail level stay the same or even decline in some cases. Worker productivity advanced at a 6.4 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter.Another reason is competition -- from e-commerce companies on the Internet, from government deregulation of industries such as electricity and telecommunications, and from overseas firms who not only produce goods cheaply, but sell them to American producers in currencies that are worth less than the U.S. dollars those producers use to pay for them. All that has led to increased output without higher prices -- a phenomenon that has framed the U.S. economy for more than three years, said Rob Palombi, a markets analyst with Standard & Poor's MMS. What's more, "the U.S. dollar has been on a firming path against the yen and the euro, which should help offset inflation risks on imported goods going forward." After reaching near par against the yen in January, the dollar has risen to above 106 yen. It has also made steady ground against the euro, with the euro falling below parity in late January to trade around the 96-cent level.

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Changes in the Business Cycle(May 14, 1999)

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Changes in the Business Cycle(May 14, 1999)

In December 1998, the current expansion reached a milestone – it became the longest peacetime expansion in post-World War II U.S. economic history, surpassing the record previously held by the 1982-1990 expansion. In fact, if the expansion continues through January 2000, it will tie the expansion associated with the Vietnam War as the longest expansion since our records of such things start in 1854.The experience of the U.S. during the last twenty years has been quite remarkable. The long economic expansion of the 1980s was followed by a relatively short recession in 1990-91, and the economy has been expanding ever since. The U.S. has experienced only 8 months of recession in the last 16 years. The most visible sign of the continued expansion is provided by the unemployment rate. For the past year, it has remained below 4.5 percent, hovering at levels not seen since the early 1970s.Not surprisingly, the long expansion has raised questions about the whole notion of the business cycle. Extended periods of expansion always lead a few commentators to speculate that the conventional business cycle is dead. In 1969, for example, a conference volume titled “Is the Business Cycle Obsolete?” was published just as the 1961-69 expansion came to an end and the economy entered a recession. With two record-setting expansions in a row, and the current one still going, it is to be expected that the notion of regular business cycles is again being questioned. The current favorite hypothesis is that a “new economy” has emerged in which our old understanding of business cycle forces is no longer relevant.While few economists believe we have seen the end of business cycles (just look at Asia and Latin America!), the views of economists about business cycles have changed. These changes reflect real changes in the U.S. economy, changes in our ability to measure economic developments, and changes in economic theory.Dating business cyclesAlthough virtually all data used to analyze the U.S. economy are produced by some agency of the federal government, the standard dates identifying business cycle peaks and troughs are determined by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The NBER is a private, non-profit research organization whose research affiliates include many of the world’s most influential economists.The NBER defines a recession as “a recurring period of decline in total output, income, employment, and trade, usually lasting from six months to a year, and marked by widespread contractions in many sectors of the economy.” Recessions are, therefore, macroeconomic in nature. A severe decline in an important industry or sector of the economy may involve great hardships for the workers and firms in that industry, but a recession is more than that. It is a period in which many sectors of the economy experience declines. Recessions are sometimes said to occur if total output declines for two consecutive quarters. However, this is not the formal definition used by the NBER.Business cycle peaks and troughs cannot be identified immediately when they occur for two reasons. First, recessions and expansions are, by definition, recurring periods of either decline or growth. One quarter of declining GDP would not necessarily indicate that the economy had entered a recession, just as one quarter of positive growth need not signal that a recession had ended. The recession of 1981-82 provides a good example. Real GDP declined from the third quarter of 1981 to the fourth quarter, and then again from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of 1982. It then grew in the second quarter of 1982. The recession was not over, however, as GDP again declined in the third quarter of 1982. Only beginning with the fourth quarter did real output begin a sustained period of growth.Second, the information that is needed to determine whether the economy has entered a recession or moved into an expansion phase is only available with a time lag. Delays in data collection and revisions in the preliminary estimates of economic activity mean the NBER must wait some time before a clear picture of the economy’s behavior is available. For example, it was not until December 1992 that the NBER announced that the trough ending the last recession had occurred in March 1991, a delay of 20 months.Expansions and contractions since 1854U.S. business cycle peaks and troughs going back to the trough in December 1854 have been dated by the NBER. Based on their dates, we can ask whether basic business cycle facts have changed over time.One important aspect of a recession or an expansion is its duration. The lengths of recessions since 1854 are shown in Figure 1. Several interesting facts are apparent from the figure. First, measured solely by duration, the Great Depression of 1929-1933 pales in comparison with the 1873-1879 depression that lasted over five years. And the 1882-1885 recession lasted nearly as long as the Great Depression. Some lasting images of American history survive from this period, including the great debate over silver coinage.Second, while the Great Depression was not the longest period of economic decline, it does appear to represent a watershed; no recession since has lasted even half as long as the 1929-1933 contraction.Third, it is not just that recessions have been shorter on average in the post-World War II era, they have all been much shorter. Of the 19 recessions before the Great Depression, only three lasted less than a year; of the 11 recessions since the Great Depression, only three have lasted more than a year.Figure 2 shows the duration of economic expansions since 1854. Darker bars mark wartime expansions. Based on duration, the changing nature of expansions is not quite as evident as for contractions. But of the 21 expansions prior to World War II, only three lasted more than three years. In contrast, of the 10 expansions since, only three have lasted less than three years. Even if the wartime expansions associated with Korea and Vietnam are ignored, post-World War II expansions have averaged 49 months, compared to an average of only 24 months for pre-World War II peacetime expansions.Is the economy more stable?A simple comparison of the duration of expansions and contractions does suggest the U.S. economy has performed better in the post-World War II era. Recessions are shorter, expansions are longer. These changes strongly suggest that business cycles have changed over time. However, a simple comparison of duration cannot tell us about the severity of recessions or the strength of expansions. This would be better measured by the decline in output that occurs in a recession or the growth that occurs in an expansion. However, most studies that examine how volatile economic activity has been do conclude that output has been somewhat more stable in the post-World War II era.This conclusion, however, is not universally accepted. There are three reasons that comparing the business cycle over time is difficult.First, the quality of economic data has improved tremendously over the past 100 years. If the earlier data on the U.S. economy contained more measurement error because the quality of our statistics was lower, the measured path of the economy may show some fluctuations that simply reflect random errors in output data. This will make the earlier period look more unstable. In addition, earlier data on economic output tended to provide only a partial coverage of the economy. For example, better statistics were available on industrial output than on services. Since services tend to fluctuate less over a business cycle, the earlier data undoubtedly exaggerated the extent of fluctuations in the aggregate economy.Second, NBER dating methods have not remained consistent. Romer (1994) argues that the dating of pre-World War II business cycles was done in a manner that tended to date peaks earlier and troughs later than the post-World War II methods would have done. This contributes to the impression that prewar recessions were longer and expansions shorter.Third, the economy is increasingly becoming a producer of services, and productivity in the service sector is often difficult to measure. In general, the tremendous changes experienced in recent years associated with the information revolution are likely to affect the cyclical behavior of the economy in ways not yet fully understood.Implications for macroeconomic policyUnderstanding changes in the nature of the business cycle is important for policymakers. Most central banks view contributing to a stable economy as one of their responsibilities. Promoting stable growth has important benefits, and reducing the frequency or severity of recessions is desirable as part of a policy to ensure employment opportunities for all workers. Preventing expansions from generating inflation is also important since once inflation gets started, high unemployment is usually necessary to bring it back down.One might think, then, that policy designed to stabilize the economy should attempt to eliminate fluctuations entirely. This is not the case, for a very important reason. A business cycle represents fluctuations in the economy around full-employment output, but an economy’s full-employment output, often called potential GDP, can also change. It grows over time due to population growth, growth in the economy’s capital stock, and technological change. Developments in economic theory have led to a better understanding of how an economy adjusts to various disturbances. These adjustments can cause potential GDP to fluctuate, and it would be inappropriate for policy to attempt to offset these fluctuations. Identifying fluctuations in potential GDP from cyclical fluctuations can be difficult, however, as the current economic expansion illustrates. Is the economy in danger of overheating, risking a revival of inflation? Or have changes in the economy increased potential GDP?While the U.S. economy has enjoyed two consecutive record expansions, a longer historical perspective does help to remind us that business cycles are unlikely to be gone for good. Despite talk of the “new economy,” all economies experience ups and downs that are reflected in swings in unemployment, capacity utilization, and overall economic output. Though changes in the structure of the economy may alter the extent of these fluctuations, they are unlikely to eliminate them.In addition, the business cycle record is not independent of policy decisions. The economy may not have changed fundamentally; perhaps we have simply benefited from good economic policy (see Taylor 1998 for a discussion along these lines). With less successful policies, recessions could become more frequent and longer again. The Great Depression, for example, was prolonged by, among other things, poor economic and monetary policy decisions, and the recessions of the early 1980s were the price of policy mistakes in the 1970s that allowed inflation to rise significantly (Romer 1999). Thus, one reason business cycles can change, even if the underlying economy or source of disturbances haven’t, is because policymakers do a better (or worse) job of stabilizing the economy.

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

United States: A hotly contested election could lead to economic overheating(31 / 10 / 2024)

Sell

453870

TIGER India Nifty 50

United States: A hotly contested election could lead to economic overheating(31 / 10 / 2024)

An election with uncertain resultOn November 5th, Americans will head to the polls to decide between former President Donald Trump (Republican) and sitting Vice President Kamala Harris (Democrat). The outcome hinges on a few key "swing states" where no clear favorite has emerged. In addition to the presidency, control of Congress is at stake: Republicans need only two seats to reclaim the Senate, while Democrats need a net gain of four to take back the House. A divided Congress is likely, though a trifecta – control of both chambers and the presidency by one party – remains possible.Protectionism and trade risksA second Trump presidency would likely escalate protectionist trade policies, including substantial tariffs on imports, particularly from China. Trump has already pledged a 60% tariff on Chinese imports and broader tariffs on U.S. allies, which could severely disrupt global supply chains and raise costs for American businesses.In contrast, Harris would likely continue a more strategic and measured approach to trade, focusing on targeted restrictions, especially concerning China. However, trade tensions are expected to persist, especially in the technology and energy sectors.Diverging fiscal visionsHarris and Trump present significantly different fiscal policies. Harris aims to raise taxes on corporations and the wealthy, offering tax relief to lower-income families. Her platform emphasizes public investment in green infrastructure and social programs, seeking to reduce income inequality.Trump, for his part, wants to extend and broaden the tax cuts he introduced in 2017 and is also considering a cut in corporation tax to 15%. Furthermore, his approach is based on deregulating key sectors to promote economic growth, at the risk of increasing the public deficit.Inflation and economic uncertaintyBoth candidates’ platforms involve substantial public spending, raising concerns about inflation and interest rates. While household consumption is solid, a spike in inflation triggered by the implementation of either candidate's election manifesto could force the Federal Reserve to adopt a more restrictive monetary policy, thereby raising interest rates.Despite these risks, the U.S. dollar remains globally strong, ensuring favorable financing conditions for the country. However, should the Fed's independence come under threat in a second Trump term, confidence in U.S. monetary policy could waver, increasing global economic uncertainty.

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What impending recession? New survey shows most people think they will be better off next year(Dec. 10, 2019)

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What impending recession? New survey shows most people think they will be better off next year(Dec. 10, 2019)

Economists are beginning to predict a near-term economic future that, until recently, would have been considered inconceivable, or at the very least implausible: The idea that the more than decade-old bull market still has room to run.A new survey from the National Association for Business Economics found that economic experts think there is less than a 50 percent chance that a recession will take place next year, and a roughly one-in-three chance that the economy will remain positive at least through mid-2021.NABE survey panelists said there is a 21 percent of a recession taking place by the middle of next year, a 43 percent chance of recession by the end of next year, and a 34 percent chance that a recession won’t occur until after mid-2021 at the earliest.In an interview with CNBC, Fidelity Investments director of global macro Jurrien Timmer suggested that the current state of the expansion could be, “a mini-reflation wave within an ongoing late cycle."I think in many ways, the way the economy has evolved in the past 12 months has been more positive than expected,” said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.com. “If you asked people at the beginning of the expansion if it would’ve lasted more than a decade, most people would have said not,” he said. “This is one of the consequences of slower growth for longer.”Hamrick said the Federal Reserve reversing its rate-hiking trajectory and choosing instead to lower rates three times over the course of 2019 played a big role in reversing the market plunge that took place last December. “I think that is one thing that is huge and in many ways it was an admission by the Fed that it was wrong,” he said.Another key component is the job market, according to experts. The NABE survey was conducted before Friday’s surprisingly strong jobs report, which found that the economy added a robust 266,000 jobs in November, higher than the 187,000 economists anticipated.“The one thing that people point to all the time is the hiring component,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group. “I think that’s the real takeaway here. It’s more about the strength in hiring than anything else. As long as the labor market stays tight, then recession gets pushed off further and further,” he said.Studies show that ordinary Americans’ sense of financial security is tightly tied to the job market, and a new Fidelity Investments survey conducted in October found that people also feel optimistic: More than three out of four of the more than 3,000 surveyed, including 85 percent of millennial and Gen Z respondents, said they think they will be better off financially next year than they have been this year.

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Economists’ fears of a 2020 recession in the US surge(June 6, 2019)

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TIGER India Nifty 50

Economists’ fears of a 2020 recession in the US surge(June 6, 2019)

America’s business leaders are growing more worried that the United States will enter a recession by the end of 2020. Their primary fear: protectionist trade policy.That is the topline finding of a report released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics. The survey, based on responses by 53 economists, is a leading barometer of where the US business community thinks the economy is headed.“Increased trade protectionism is considered the primary downwide risk to growth by a majority of the respondents,” Gregory Daco, chief US economist for Oxford Economics, said in a statement. The report found what it called a “surge” in recession fears among the economists.The report comes as the United States ratchets up its trade war with China and has gone after other major trading partners, including Mexico and India.The risk of recession happening soon remains low but will “rise rapidly” next year. The survey’s respondents said the risk of recession starting in 2019 is only 15% but 60% by the end of 2020. About a third of respondents forecast a recession will begin halfway through next year.According to the survey, the median forecast for gross domestic product growth in the last quarter of 2020 was 1.9%. That would be a big drop from the most recent estimate of current US economic growth — 3.1% in the first three months of 2019.The United States is probably somewhere in the last stages of an epic run of economic growth that began in 2009. Dramatic and coordinated responses by the Federal Reserve, Congress and the Obama administration helped pull the country up from the Great Recession.President Donald Trump, who took the reins of the US economy from Barack Obama in 2017, has aggressively tried to reorder the US position on global trade. He has picked prominent fights with China and Europe and has threatened tariffs on Mexico over illegal immigration and India over access to its markets.Other notable findings from the National Association for Business Economics:– 56% of respondents cited increasingly protectionist trade policy as the greatest risk to the US economy in 2019. Separately, 88% pointed to US trade policy, and retaliation by other nations, for why they lowered their GDP growth forecasts.– 14% believe a “substantial” decline in the stock market, and 10% feel a slowdown in global growth, are the biggest risks to the US economy.– Business spending will moderate this year and next after growing a strong 6.9% in 2018.

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TIGER India Nifty 50

Is the Labor Market Overheating?(APRIL 1, 2022)

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Is the Labor Market Overheating?(APRIL 1, 2022)

Annmarie Fertoli: US employers are hiring at a brisk pace and the unemployment rate is nearing pre pandemic levels. But there are some worries, namely that record high job openings and higher wages could further fuel inflation. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed concerns about that earlier this month when the Central Bank moved to raise interest rates for the first time since 2018. What does the latest jobs report mean for the Feds path going forward? I'm Annmarie Fertoli from the Wall Street Journal, and I'm joined now by Wall Street Journal, Chief Economics Correspondent, Nick Timiraos. Hi, Nick. Thanks for being here.Nick Timiraos: Thanks for having me.Annmarie Fertoli: Nick, overall we saw strong hiring last month, but this is actually something that could pose a challenge for the Fed, which is closely eyeing whether or not this economy right now is overheating. Can you explain those dynamics for us?Nick Timiraos: Well, the Fed is concerned about inflation running too high, and initially the Fed thought that was primarily happening because of a shortage of goods leading to extreme price pressures for a high handful of things like used cars and new cars. But the concern now is that inflation is broadening to include a broader range of goods and also services. And if you think about the services that we purchase, whether it's haircuts, or restaurant meals, those are things where labor is the main expense. And when you begin to see pressures driving wages higher, that adds to the Fed's concern that inflation is going to be harder to get out of the economy than if it were just rising because of some idiosyncratic price increases for things like used cars.Annmarie Fertoli: Now, how does the Fed usually handle these dueling mandates of achieving maximum employment while keeping inflation near the target 2%? We know that inflation hasn't been near that Fed target for quite some time now.Nick Timiraos: Well, sometimes as you note, the mandates can be in conflict. Right now, they're not. Right now, you have very strong employment and very high inflation. And the Fed will look at that and say, "Obviously we need to raise interest rates." Right now, interest rates are just below a half percentage point and the Fed thinks that a neutral rate, which would be where you're no longer providing stimulus, but you're not necessarily stepping on the brakes. They think that's somewhere between 2 and 3%. We're nowhere near their estimates of what a neutral rate would be. Right now, the Fed is on a clear path to get interest rates up this year to something around 2% give or take. The question's going to be, what do you do after that if the economy's still standing strong and inflation's still coming in high? Inflation results when there is an imbalance of supply and demand. The Fed can't do anything about supply of oil, shortages of cars. They can't fix the supply side of the economy. The only way for them to really bring supply and demand into balance in the short run is to reduce demand. And that's what would begin to happen once they get interest rates to neutral. If they decide to keep raising interest rates, they would be trying to deliberately slow down the economy, destroying demand, weakening the job market in order to get inflation to come down.Annmarie Fertoli: We know that the Fed is planning to raise interest rates several times this year. What does the latest data from the jobs report mean for how Fed officials might proceed at their next meeting in May?Nick Timiraos: The big question at the May meeting is not whether the Fed will raise interest rates, it's by how much. Traditionally, when the Fed raises interest rates, they move in just a quarter percentage point increment, but there are times when the data might call for a larger increase, a half percentage point increase. Now, the Fed has not raised interest rates by a half percentage point since 2000, but we haven't been in an environment where inflation's this high and where the unemployment rate is this low. When the unemployment rate fell to this half century low level in 2018 and 2019, inflation was at 2%. The big question now is really will the Fed do a supersized half percentage point interest rate increase in May? And the report from the Labor Department here gives them a green light to do a half point increase if they want to.Annmarie Fertoli: And what does the latest jobs report mean for the Fed's plans to unwind its $9 trillion asset portfolio?Nick Timiraos: The Fed has two tools that they've used to provide stimulus, which is cutting interest rates during the crisis. They cut rates to zero and then after that they purchase longer term bonds and mortgage backed securities, again, to push rates even lower. Now, as they're unwinding their stimulus, they're raising interest rates, but they're also preparing at their May meeting to announce a plan to shrink the asset holdings to allow that stimulus to reverse. And it's very likely that the Fed will begin to do that. And it's a double barreled form of policy tightening. It's not something that the Fed has a lot of experience with because they've only done this one other time after they expanded their asset portfolio. After the 2008 recession, they unwound it a little bit in 2017, 18, and 19. Now they're talking about more aggressively running down the securities holdings in that portfolio. It's very much going to be trial and error, wait and see, Fed Chair J Powell is talking about being humble and nimble. And that suggests that the Fed is doing something they don't have a lot of experience doing, which is to bring inflation down when it's way above its target, possibly raising rates a lot more than they have in the last two decades all while shrinking their asset portfolio.Annmarie Fertoli: All right. That's Wall Street Journal Chief Economics Correspondent, Nick Timiraos. Nick, thanks so much for your time today.

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Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Powell Pushes Back on Concerns of Prices Rising, Overheating(2021년 2월 25일)

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Powell Pushes Back on Concerns of Prices Rising, Overheating(2021년 2월 25일)

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized his view that the economy has a long way to go in the recovery and signs of prices rising won’t necessarily lead to persistently high inflation.“Our policy is accommodative because unemployment is high and the labor market is far from maximum employment,” he told the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, in his second day of testimony to Congress. “It’s true that some asset prices are elevated by some measures.”Powell pointed to the example of car prices rising because of a chip shortage and supply-chain constraints in the tech industry.“That doesn’t necessarily lead to inflation because inflation is a process that repeats itself year over year over year,” he said, rather than a one-time surge.In multiple questions from lawmakers about the risk of the economy overheating -- with additional government aid and continued support from the central bank -- the Fed chair reiterated his view that there’s a long way still to go before returning to pre-pandemic strength.U.S. stocks reversed losses and turned positive as he reaffirmed his view that the economy needs help. Government bond yields jumped along with oil prices.Inflation ConcernsHis remarks were echoed by officials speaking elsewhere on Wednesday. Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida expressed cautious optimism on the outlook but said it would “take some time” to restore the economy to pre-pandemic levels. Govenor Lael Brainard warnedthat inflation remained “very low” and the economy was still far from the Fed’s goals.Powell acknowledged that the central bank does expect inflation to move up because of “base effects” and a surge in demand as the economy reopens from shutdowns during the virus outbreak. But he emphasized that central bank has “the tools to deal with it.”Powell delivered his remarks as signs appear that the economy is strengthening and as optimism grows with the distribution of vaccines. Markets are also expecting further fiscal stimulus from President Joe Biden and Congress.That prospect is setting the stage for a shift away from historically low Treasury yields and energizing the global economic trade, driving up commodities prices and inflation expectations.Read More: Treasuries Rout Accelerates as Quants Deepen Global Debt SelloffDuring the hearing, Powell voiced confidence that the Fed would succeed in lifting inflation and getting it to average 2% over time.“I’m confident that we can and that we will, and we are committed to using our tools to achieving that,” he said. “We live in a time where there is significant disinflationary pressures around the world and where essentially all major advanced economy’s central banks have struggled to get to 2%. We believe we can do it, we believe we will do it.”Powell said that “it may take more than three years” to reach that goal but vowed to update the Fed’s assessment on the issue every quarter.

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TIGER India Nifty 50

The World Economy Risks Turning Too Hot to Handle(2018년 3월 16일)

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The World Economy Risks Turning Too Hot to Handle(2018년 3월 16일)

The world economy risks growing too fast for its own good.Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers meet next week in Argentina amid the broadest and strongest economic upswing since 2011, with President Donald Trump’s tax cuts adding a dose of accelerant. They convene days after the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development raised its forecasts to show global growth of 3.9 percent this year and next.For policy makers and investors, the key questions are how much faster can the world grow -- and do they even want it to if overheating means an inflationary boom is followed by another bust.Global growth has only matched or bettered 3.9 percent 8 times since 1990 and HSBC Holdings Plc notes every synchronized upswing since then presaged an abrupt shock. The peak of 5.6 percent in 2007 was followed by the financial crisis a year later.“When lots of countries are growing strongly, the global economy is at its most vulnerable, thanks to heightened interest rate and financial risks,” said Stephen King, senior economic adviser at HSBC.In a study of 50 economies published last month, King observed that the credit-crunch recession hit the U.S. in 1990 after a period of robust global demand and then bond markets collapsed in 1994 following another growth spurt. The next boom in 1997 came before the Asia crisis and then the world was buoyant from 2004 to 2007 until the worst recession since the Great Depression.Signs are already appearing that activity is now looking toppish as the Federal Reserve and other central banks tighten monetary policy, China curbs borrowing and Trump implements tariffs. Citigroup Inc. calculates data in major economies are currently undershooting forecasts by the most since September and measures of manufacturing confidence appear to be cresting, albeit at lofty levels.“Even though the sun still shines in the global economy, there are more clouds on the horizon,” International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said in a blog post addressed to G-20 policy makers. “Think of the growing concerns over trade tensions, the recent spike in volatility in financial markets, and more uncertain geopolitics.”The fear of a trade war will be high on the agenda in Buenos Aires, with Bloomberg Economics estimating such an event could wipe $470 billion off the world economy by 2020.Read more on the risks associated with a global trade warInvestors seem placated for now. Global stocks were roiled in January amid concern a pickup in U.S. inflation would force central banks to react, yet subsequent data showed price pressures remain muted even as companies keep hiring.“Overheating -- in the form of a sharp pick-up in inflation -- is still a good way into the future,” Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, said of the U.S.In a report to clients on Thursday, Nomura Holdings Inc. economist Andrew Cates wrote that there is “plenty of scope for this cycle to mature” because tightening labor markets and stronger demand should prompt companies to invest and productivity to advance, allowing the global expansion to continue.There could still be trouble ahead.In the U.S., tax cuts and government spending are stoking demand but could end up provoking the Fed into raising interest rates more aggressively than policy makers now plan, risking another fallout in financial markets. Unemployment is already at 4.1 percent and could fall further.Fitch Ratings said on Thursday that “booming” global conditions will trigger central banks to raise interest rates.“The Fed will need to move rates materially higher over the next few years to head off overheating risk two to three years out,” said Krishna Guha, vice chairman at Evercore ISI in Washington.Still, incoming White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow urged the Fed not to “overdo it” in raising interest rates: “Growth is not inflationary. Just let it rip, for heaven’s sake,” he told CNBC in an interview.

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Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Fed chief Powell says no evidence U.S. economy overheating(March 2, 2018)

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Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Fed chief Powell says no evidence U.S. economy overheating(March 2, 2018)

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Thursday the U.S. economy does not appear to be running hot, even as the influential head of the New York Fed suggested a faster pace of interest rate increases may still be in the offing for 2018."There is no evidence the economy is overheating," Powell told the Senate Banking Committee in his second appearance in Congress this week, saying he expects the Fed to stick with a "gradual" pace of monetary policy tightening.But in remarks at an event in Sao Paulo, Brazil, New York Fed President William Dudley said "gradual" could still apply to a scenario in which borrowing costs were raised four times this year, instead of the three moves Fed policymakers projected when they issued their last set of economic projections in December.Yet the Fed officials' comments were overshadowed by President Donald Trump's announcement of a plan to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, the sort of move Fed policymakers have warned about since the Republican took office last year.Such action, and the risk of retaliation by trading partners, could cloud the U.S. economic outlook and derail the global recovery currently benefiting the United States.Traders of federal funds futures trimmed bets on a fourth rate increase this year after Trump's announcement. U.S. stock indexes fell sharply, with the S&P 500 <.SPX> index down about 1.3 percent in a third consecutive day of losses.In his testimony, Powell described trade as a "net positive" while conceding it created some losers in the economy, and said "the tariff approach is not the best approach. The best approach is to deal directly with the people who are affected rather than falling back on tariffs."The Fed is expected to increase rates at its March 20-21 policy meeting. Policymakers will also issue fresh forecasts that will indicate whether the core of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee has shifted its view.'APPROPRIATE PATH'Powell's twin appearances this week showed that he and the rest of the Fed are wrestling over how to square an economy that is strong on many levels, and possibly about to get at least a short-term boost from tax cuts, but still lacks the kind of inflation and wage gains that would prompt faster Fed action on rates.To some policymakers, the absence of price pressures means the Fed should stand back, wait for wages to gain steam, and give workers a chance to make up ground lost due to the 2007-2009 financial crisis and its aftermath even at the risk of faster inflation in the future."Similar numbers of participants see upside risk to the outlook and downside risks on inflation," analysts from Barclays wrote in a recent note. "If policy is to move faster, or slower, one of these groups needs to gain additional members."Earlier on Thursday, the Commerce Department reported that consumer prices increased in January, with a gauge of underlying inflation posting its largest gain in 12 months. The report added to the sense that inflation is moving up to the Fed's 2 percent target.In prepared remarks for his testimony this week, Powell pledged to "strike a balance" between avoiding any rapid rise in prices while keeping the recovery on track in the hope that the tight job market finally produces significant wage gains.He also acknowledged, in response to lawmakers' questions, that the labor market may have room to strengthen further, given uncertainty about the level of "full employment," a concept generally associated with faster rising wages and prices.Though the current U.S. unemployment rate of 4.1 percent was "at or near or even below" many estimates of the full employment rate, "we don't see any evidence of a decisive move up in wages ... Nothing in that suggests to me that wage inflation is at a point of acceleration," Powell told the Senate panel on Thursday.Powell said risks are "more two-sided" now than early in the recovery, adding that "the thing we don't want to have happen is to get behind the curve."But he said at this point the Fed could continue "to gradually raise interest rates ... That is the path we have been on and my expectation is that will continue to be the appropriate path."Since Powell's appearance before the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, markets have been looking for clarity over whether the Fed will accelerate the pace of its rate increases this year.Powell's bullish comments about the economy on Tuesday sparked a jump in U.S. bond yields and drop in stocks.Reporting by Howard Schneider; Additional reporting by Pete Schroeder and Jason Lange in Washington, Jonathan Spicer in New York and Ann Saphir in San Francisco; Editing by Paul Simao

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4 signs the stock market is overheating(July 1, 2014)

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4 signs the stock market is overheating(July 1, 2014)

The markets are in a state of ecstasy, but investors may be underestimating lurking danger.CNNMoney took a look at a slew of recent data on stock valuations and corporate sentiment, and while the prospects for global economic growth remain robust, savvy investors need to stay vigilant.Here are the most four worrying signs for the markets right now:1. Addiction to the Fed stimulus: Simply put, the financial markets are hooked on easy money, and that has caused them to ignore real economic and geopolitical vulnerabilities, according to an annual report released Sunday by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), an organization of of central banks.While the Federal Reserve and other central banks are widely credited with shoring up the financial system after the crisis by keeping interest rates low and driving investment into stocks, investors may have gotten ahead of themselves."It is hard to avoid the sense of a puzzling disconnect between the markets' buoyancy and underlying economic developments globally," the report said.Related: America's 6 biggest public pensionsThe BIS noted that investors aggressive search for yield has driven them into riskier European and emerging market bonds, as well as lower rated corporate debt. That has left them exposed to a host of problems should interest rates rise quickly or economic conditions deteriorate."Countries could at some point find themselves in a debt trap: seeking to stimulate the economy through low interest rates encourages even more debt, ultimately adding to the problem it is meant to solve," asserted the BIS.2. Stocks are downright expensive: According to a popular metric of market valuation, stocks are trading at lofty levels previously experienced leading up market crashes. According to the Shiller PE Ratio, which tracks inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years, the S&P 500 is currently trading at over 26 times earnings. The long-term average, going back more than 130 years, is 16.5.The Shiller price-to-earnings ratio rose above 25 for the first time in 1901, then again in 1929. At the height of the tech stock craze in 2000, the ratio hit a record peak of 44 before the market collapsed. It was back above 25 in 2003 and stayed around that level until 2007 -- shortly before the so-called Great Recession.Source: Data from multpl.com based on Shiller PE RatioAccording to research by Credit Suisse, once it rises above 26, U.S. stock market returns are typically negative for the next five years.3. Markets are far outpacing actual growth: Stocks are priced in the stratosphere compared to the overall health of the U.S. economy. David R. Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer at Cumberland Advisors in Sarasota, Florida, says that the only other time the total valuation of the stock market relative to U.S. growth domestic product (GDP) was higher was at the peak of the tech bubble."We think the probability of a correction is rising. It is very hard to pinpoint," Kotok explained in a research note Sunday.Still, Kotok is stripping out the first quarter's decline in GDP for his calculations, and he admits that "GDP is not a perfect trading guide."Related: 3 reasons not to freak out about -2.9% GDPBut "it does express that, when stocks are highly priced in the aggregate relative to GDP, the probability is higher that markets are becoming fully valued."Worst Q1 GDP since recession4. Corporate leaders aren't so optimistic anymore: In a survey revealed Monday by accounting and consulting behemoth Deloitte, Chief Financial Officers in the United States have lowered their earnings expectations for the year, with CFOs in manufacturing feeling particularly pessimistic.CFOs' expectations for capital spending also fell, the Deloitte survey found."Net optimism is holding steady, but lower earnings and capital spending growth expectations suggest U.S. CFOs are factoring in bumps that were not on their radar screens three months ago," said Deloitte's Sanford Cockrell III in a press release.

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Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Italy debt concerns plague world markets(July 11, 2011)

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Mirae Asset TIGER Synth-EURO STOXX 50 ETF(H)

Italy debt concerns plague world markets(July 11, 2011)

World markets slumped Monday, as fears about debt crises plagued both Europe and the United States.Italy in particular, was shoved into the spotlight. Public sparring last week between Italy's prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, and finance minister Giulio Tremonti heightened fears that the debt crisis in Greece and Portugal was spreading to the continent's third-largest economy."Beware." Tremonti was quoted as saying by Italian newspapers, in response to rumors that he might resign. "If I fall, then Italy falls. If Italy falls, then so falls the euro. It is a chain."Global investors are concerned that Tremonti -- credited with saving Italy from the worst of the euro zone's debt crisis -- will be forced out of the government, after his push for steep spending cuts was met with resistance from the prime minister and other cabinet members.That raises fears that Italy's government is not as committed to enacting necessary austerity measures, as Greece or other debt-stricken euro zone countries."What we need to see in Italy is some concrete and clear demonstration that they're not going to be backsliding on austerity -- and that Tremonti will not lose his job," said Peter Westaway, chief European economist with Nomura.Check world marketsIn what Italian media dubbed "Black Friday," Italian stocks and bond yields plummeted at the end of last week, and trading was suspended for some Italian bank stocks following sharp sell-offs."What we're seeing over the last few days in Italy is investors are already starting to speculate against Italy," Westaway said. "I don't think policymakers can sit on their hands any longer and just hope contagion doesn't happen."The selling continued Monday amid fears that those banks won't be able to pass euro zone stress tests -- the results of which will be published Friday. Of the 91 European banks that will undergo the stress tests, about 15 are expected to fail.Shares of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) fell more than 5%, while shares of Bank of Ireland (IRE), Barclays (BCS) and Deutsche Bank (DB) all slumped more than 4%.Jitters about the debt crisis spilled over to Europe's major stock indexes, sending Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) down 1%, Germany's DAX (DAX) falling 2.3% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) tumbling 2.7%.The European Council called an emergency meeting Monday to discuss the continent's debt crisis, ahead of an already scheduled meeting of the eurozone's 17 finance ministers.Why a problematic Portugal mattersMoody's Investors Service downgraded Portugal's debt last week, and two weeks ago, Greece agreed to implement painful austerity measures in exchange for another round of bailout funding.U.S. markets: American investors got little comfort from lawmakers, who failed to strike a deal on raising the government's debt ceiling.Ratings agencies have warned, If the ceiling isn't raised by Aug. 2, the country's pristine credit rating could fall, potentially sending shock waves rippling through the world economy.In midday trading, the Dow Jones industrial average (INDU), the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Nasdaq (COMP) were all down more than 1%, with shares of JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) all down roughly 3%.Asian markets: Stocks ended the day mostly lower in Asia, as investors mulled over reports on China's inflation rate and trade balance.The Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong tumbled 1.7% and Japan's Nikkei 225 (NKY) fell 0.7%. But the Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) in China inched up 0.2%.

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Mirae Asset TIGER Synth-EURO STOXX 50 ETF(H)

European fear: The wolves are at the gate(August 5, 2011)

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Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

European fear: The wolves are at the gate(August 5, 2011)

A sharp drop in manufacturing, a towering debt-to-GDP ratio and a jaw-dropping decline in equity markets.No -- not the United States. Europe!Many of the underlying tremors that led to this week's steep sell-off in the U.S. have been festering in plain sight in Europe for a year or more.Consider a few figures:European indexes have been hammered over the past month, with the main exchanges of England (UKX) off 12.9%, France (CAC40) 17.6% and Germany (DAX) 16.7%.The economies of Italy and France -- two of the continent's largest -- expanded by only 0.3% and 0.2% in the second quarter.The problem?Developed countries piled on massive amounts of debt during the recession.Advanced economies worldwide increased their debt burden from $18.1 trillion in 2007 to $29.5 trillion in 2011, according to researchers at the Brookings Institution. And that's not the half of it. The number is projected to grow to $41.3 trillion by 2016.Throw 3 coins in the fountain. Italy needs themThe bill collector has already come for some. Billions have been spent propping up Ireland and Greece, and investors have not been shy about sending yields through the roof when they smell blood in the water.Investors lending money to Spain are now demanding interest rates of 6%, while Greek bonds carry a 15% rate and yields on Italian notes spiked this week to 5.5%.Coupled with weak growth, the sharp increase in interest rates only adds to the countries' debt and makes it even more difficult for them to lower their debt-GDP-ratio.There is some evidence that politicians are waking up to the scale of the crisis.What's going on with Italy?German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy planned to interrupt their summer vacations -- a hiking holiday in Italy and a three-week excursion to the French Riviera -- to confer by phone about the growing economic unease.That's welcome news, because while the crisis started at the continent's periphery, it has now arrived at the gates of Italy and Spain.And that, according to Domenico Lombardi, a senior fellow at Brookings and former International Monetary Fund executive board member, should worry policymakers in the United States."Italy has been hit," Lombardi said. "It's the third largest economy in the euro area, and there is no organization that can bail Italy out. It's just too big to swallow."If the situation in Italy were to worsen, the impact could lead to weakening demand for U.S. exports, uncertainty in global currency markets, and consequences for U.S. banks that are exposed to the European banking system.The timing couldn't be worse for the United States, which is about to engage in some fiscal belt-tightening as a result of the debt ceiling deal negotiated in Washington.With the government pumping less money into the economy, policymakers need to find a way to increase demand for U.S. exports, Lombardi said."But this is certainly not going to come from Europe," he said.The tremendous instability in Europe is yet another drag on an already weak U.S. economy and could increase uncertainly, spark a rush to safe-haven assets or delay major investments by American businesses."The economic recovery in the U.S. is inherently fragile," Lombardi said. "And this could have a dramatic effect on the job market outlook."On Friday, EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn tried to calm the swirl of rumors as markets bucked up and down."The market unrest witnessed in the last few days is simply not justified on the grounds of economic fundamentals," he said, having broken off his holidays to return to Brussels. "It is not justified for Italy. It is not justified for Spain."But try telling that to bond markets

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133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Debt ceiling: It's not over until the vote(July 31, 2011)

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133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Debt ceiling: It's not over until the vote(July 31, 2011)

The debate over the debt ceiling has fractured Washington, heightened partisan rancor and sowed seeds of distrust. And before all this ends -- leaders in Congress must garner enough votes to actually pass legislation.The White House and congressional leaders have agreed to a plan to cut spending and raise the debt ceiling in time.But final passage will require votes from both sides of the aisle, and they will have to be gathered at the last minute -- which heightens the risk of a miscalculation.Witness what happened on Sept. 29, 2008, when the House at first rejected the $700 billion bank bailout bill.Weeks earlier, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had been placed into conservatorship by the Treasury Department. Lehman Brothers had filed for bankruptcy. AIG Corp, the world's biggest insurer, had been bailed out by the Federal Reserve.After all that, the Senate passed the bill. And then, as markets watched, the measure was voted down in the House -- a defeat that shocked investors and congressional leaders on both sides of the aisle.Debt ceiling: What happens if Congress doesn't raise it?Following the vote, the Dow slumped 778 points, in the biggest single-day point loss ever.A few days later, the House reversed course and passed a modified version of the bill. Some 58 members switched their votes.Why was the process so hard? A principal reason is that it was rushed.Lawmakers who voted against the bill warned that "being stampeded" into a decision would be a serious mistake."Wall Street is so hungry for the $700 billion they can taste it. To get it they need to ... create panic, block alternatives and herd the cattle. We ask Congress not to rush," California Democrat Rep. Brad Sherman said before the vote.That sentiment stretched across party lines."I am voting against this today because it's not the best bill. It's the quickest bill," Rep. Marilyn Musgrave, Republican of Colorado, told the New York Times. "Taxpayers for generations will pay for our haste and there is no guarantee that they will ever see the benefits."Norman Ornstein, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, said lawmakers now face a similar situation.Lawmakers aren't going to have a lot of time to consider their options. And the negotiations are happening behind closed doors, limiting the involvement of rank-and-file members."With TARP, it wasn't clear that another day or two wouldn't make a big difference," Ornstein said. "If you take two to three days messing around with this, you end up with what could be a profound and very long lasting impact."Alabama Republican Sen. Jeff Sessions has voiced concern about the timeline, saying there is a "very real risk that no text will be available until the last minute."And like 2008, not everyone is dealing with the same set of facts. At that time, every high-ranking government official from then-President Bush on down was warning of dire consequences if TARP faltered in the House.That moved a few members into the "yes" column, but not all."We're on the cusp of a complete catastrophic credit meltdown. There is no liquidity in the market," Rep. Sue Myrick, a North Carolina Republican, said in a statement before the vote. "We are out of time. Either you believe that fact, or you don't. I do."Right now, despite warnings from Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, President Obama, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and even House Speaker John Boehner, a number of Republicans remain so-called debt ceiling deniers."You've got enough people out there, way too many people, who aren't going to be convinced until Armageddon actually happens," Ornstein said

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133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Hedge fund investors seek shelter from meltdown ( SEPTEMBER 1 2008)

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305080

Mirae Asset TIGER 10Y U.S. Treasury Note Futures ETF

Hedge fund investors seek shelter from meltdown ( SEPTEMBER 1 2008)

Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found here. https://www.ft.com/content/29d5939c-75f4-11dd-99ce-0000779fd18cCan hedge fund investors sidestep meltdowns? Take the collapse of Bear Stearns’ high-grade structured credit and structured credit enhanced leverage funds, which reportedly invested primarily in triple A-rated tranches of mortgage-backed securities. Their managers hedged their risk through credit default swaps to produce a positive carry trade, promising steady monthly returns of 100-200 basis points with limited downside. A year after the enhanced version was brought to market, it turned out that the managers were not sufficiently hedged after all and that both funds were more highly leveraged than investors understood. Managers had initially borrowed against their original capital base before then leveraging up. This meant that 5 and 10 times leverage was really 10 and 20 times. Unbeknownst to investors, a special financing covenant with Barclays made the British bank the sole equity investor in the enhanced fund, leaving all other investors with no actual ownership rights. To cut a long story short, when the market for mortgage backed securities froze and there was no meaningful security pricing, these funds plummeted in value. Leveraging banks withdraw their financing, and the funds were dissolved. This was no surprise to some. According to Jonathan Kanterman, managing director at the fund of funds group Stillwater Capital Partners with $925m (£504m, €626m) under management, “ given the funds’ significant leverage and underlying assets, it wouldn’t have taken much of a decline in valuation to wipe out all investor capital.” Olivier le Marois, chief executive of Paris-based Riskdata, a provider of software solutions that helps asset managers and hedge funds control risk, says that given the potential illiquidity of Bear Stearns’ assets, the funds’ steady returns could have raised a red flag. The reason: in a Riskdata study of 3,216 hedge funds and funds of hedge funds, he found that nearly one-third of funds trading illiquid securities may be smoothing their returns, which could mislead investors about actual underlying turbulence. Riskdata helps 150 clients with assets of more than $500bn avoid such meltdowns by forecasting the impact of hundreds of scenarios on funds for both institutional hedge fund investors and managers of funds of hedge funds. “We aren’t market forecasters,” says Mr le Marois, “rather, we provide investors the tools to discern the most likely outcome based on their own projections by combining factor- and return-based modelling.” A client may start with a basic premise that US shares will fall 10 per cent over the next year. How then would this affect a particular hedge fund? Relying on an extensive database of historical co-movements, Riskdata’s software would suggest how such a market decline might affect other key variables such as inflation, interest and exchange rates, yield and credit spreads, real estate values, and spreads between small- and large-cap equities. Then by laying these historical data over a hedge fund’s long-term performance, Riskdata projects the likelihood of various outcomes for the fund. Its software tries to identify vulnerabilities and possible solutions. But to help discern potential risk, Riskdata will measure key variables going back before the fund’s own history began. For example, Mr le Marois cites a US fixed income fund that started up in June 2005. Over the following three years, it generated average monthly performance of 80 basis points, monthly volatility of 0.4 per cent, and the worst monthly drawdown of -0.66 per cent. How could an investor have foreseen that the fund was to collapse 28 per cent between July 2007 through March 2008, with the biggest single monthly decline being nearly 14 times worse than the fund’s previous poorest monthly performance? When credit spreads between one-year and 10-year Treasuries widened by 22 basis points [the largest increase during the life of the fund], Mr le Marois found the fund’s return dropped 1.7 per cent below its average performance. When spreads narrowed by the same amount, the performance increased 12 basis points over its norm. Given that spreads declined an average of 7 basis points during the life of the fund, historical performance would suggest limited downside risk. But by looking at spread histories going back to 1987, Riskdata found the worst spread widening was 96 basis points, which occurred just a year before the fund opened. This suggested far greater risk than historical return analysis would have indicated. In February 2008, credit spreads widened by 98 basis points, sending the fund lower by 9 per cent. Meredith Jones, managing director of PerTrac, maker of asset allocation and investment analysis software used by more than 1,700 clients across 50 countries, believes that “running screens on a regular and ongoing basis can alert you to problems and probabilities that you may not have otherwise known existed”. But she adds that these findings need to be further assessed in a qualitative review. Jiro Okochi, chief executive of Reval, a risk management solutions provider, recommends investors review a fund manager’s track record running different funds. He warns that projections based on historical review could be misleading if a manager’s current strategy and portfolio has deviated from the past. And he urges review of risk management policies and the experience of the chief risk officer. In addition to the stability of its capital base, Mr Kanterman of Stillwater Capital Management also assesses how professionally a firm is run. Transparency is critical. Does performance consistently correlate with strategy, or does it suggest that the fund has exposure in unexpected places? But to Mr Kanterman, the most persistent risk in today’s environment is marking assets to market. Lack of liquidity and fair pricing can drive down the performance of a fund when a few panic-induced transactions become the benchmark on which valuations are based. “When you have extreme swings in asset pricing that occurs irrespective of the asset value,” says Mr Kanterman, “then one needs to be extremely cautious of leveraged hedge positions because lending covenants could easily be breached and loan facilities pulled on short notice.” Ultimately, most industry observers agree that quantitative analysis can enhance transparency. But its findings should be qualitatively filtered to know their true meaning and to help avoid false reads.

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Mirae Asset TIGER 10Y U.S. Treasury Note Futures ETF

Hedge fund investors seek shelter from meltdown ( SEPTEMBER 1 2008)

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305080

Mirae Asset TIGER 10Y U.S. Treasury Note Futures ETF

Hedge fund investors seek shelter from meltdown ( SEPTEMBER 1 2008)

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305080

Mirae Asset TIGER 10Y U.S. Treasury Note Futures ETF

Credit Default Swaps: The Next Crisis?(March 17, 2008)

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284430

Samsung KODEX 200 US Treasury Notes Balanced ETF

Credit Default Swaps: The Next Crisis?(March 17, 2008)

As Bear Stearns careened toward its eventual fire sale to JPMorgan Chase last weekend, the cost of protecting its debt, through an instrument called a credit default swap, began to rise rapidly as investors feared that Bear would not be good for the money it promised on its bonds. Not familiar with credit default swaps? Well, we didn’t know much about collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) either — until they began to undermine the economy. Credit default swaps, once an obscure financial instrument for banks and bondholders, could soon become the eye of the credit hurricane. Fun, huh?The CDS market exploded over the past decade to more than $45 trillion in mid-2007, according to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association. This is roughly twice the size of the U.S. stock market (which is valued at about $22 trillion and falling) and far exceeds the $7.1 trillion mortgage market and $4.4 trillion U.S. treasuries market, notes Harvey Miller, senior partner at Weil, Gotshal & Manges. “It could be another — I hate to use the expression — nail in the coffin,” said Miller, when referring to how this troubled CDS market could impact the country’s credit crisis.Credit default swaps are insurance-like contracts that promise to cover losses on certain securities in the event of a default. They typically apply to municipal bonds, corporate debt and mortgage securities and are sold by banks, hedge funds and others. The buyer of the credit default insurance pays premiums over a period of time in return for peace of mind, knowing that losses will be covered if a default happens. It’s supposed to work similarly to someone taking out home insurance to protect against losses from fire and theft.Except that it doesn’t. Banks and insurance companies are regulated; the credit swaps market is not. As a result, contracts can be traded — or swapped — from investor to investor without anyone overseeing the trades to ensure the buyer has the resources to cover the losses if the security defaults. The instruments can be bought and sold from both ends — the insured and the insurer.All of this makes it tough for banks to value the insurance contracts and the securities on their books. And it comes at a time when banks are already reeling from write-downs on mortgage-related securities. “These are the same institutions that themselves have either directly or through subsidiaries invested in the subprime market,” said Andrea Pincus, partner at Reed Smith LLP. “They’re suffering losses all over the place,” and now they face potentially more losses from the CDS market.Indeed, commercial banks are among the most active in this market, with the top 25 banks holding more than $13 trillion in credit default swaps — where they acted as either the insured or insurer — at the end of the third quarter of 2007, according to the Comptroller of the Currency, a federal banking regulator. JP Morgan Chase, Citibank, Bank of America and Wachovia were ranked among the top four most active, it said.Credit default swaps were seen as easy money for banks when they were first launched more than a decade ago. Reason? The economy was booming and corporate defaults were few back then, making the swaps a low-risk way to collect premiums and earn extra cash. The swaps focused primarily on municipal bonds and corporate debt in the 1990s, not on structured finance securities. Investors flocked to the swaps in the belief that big corporations would seldom go bust in such flourishing economic times.The CDS market then expanded into structured finance, such as CDOs, that contained pools of mortgages. It also exploded into the secondary market, where speculative investors, hedge funds and others would buy and sell CDS instruments from the sidelines without having any direct relationship with the underlying investment. “They’re betting on whether the investments will succeed or fail,” said Pincus. “It’s like betting on a sports event. The game is being played and you’re not playing in the game, but people all over the country are betting on the outcome.”But as the economy soured and the subprime credit crunch began expanding into other credit areas over the past year, CDS investors became jittery. They wondered if the parties holding the CDS insurance after multiple trades would have the financial wherewithal to pay up in the event of mass defaults. “In the past six to eight months, there’s been a deterioration in market liquidity and the ability to get willing buyers for structured finance securities,” causing the values of the securities to fall, said Glenn Arden, a partner at Jones Day who heads up the firm’s worldwide securitization practice and New York derivative.The situation is already taking a toll on insurers, who have been forced to write down the value of their CDS portfolios. American International Group, the world’s largest insurer, recently reported the biggest loss in the company’s history largely due to an $11 billion writedown on its CDS holdings. Even Swiss Reinsurance Co., the industry’s largest reinsurer, took CDS writedowns in the fourth quarter and warned of more to come in the first quarter of 2008.Monoline bond insurance companies, such as MBIA and Ambac Financial Group Inc., have been hit the hardest as they scramble to raise capital to cover possible defaults and to stave off a downgrade from the ratings agencies. It was this group’s foray out of its traditional municipal bonds and into mortgage-backed securities that caused the turmoil. A rating downgrade of the monoline companies could be devastating for banks and others who bought insurance protection from them to cover their corporate bond exposure.The situation is exacerbated by the heavy trading volume of the instruments, the secrecy surrounding the trades, and — most importantly — the lack of regulation in this insurance contract business. “An original CDS can go through 15 or 20 trades,” said Miller. “So when a default occurs, the so-called insured party or hedged party doesn’t know who’s responsible for making up the default and if that end player has the resources to cure the default.”Prakash Shimpi, managing principal at Towers Perrin, downplays this risk, noting that contractual law requires both parties to inform and get approval from the other before selling the CDS policy to someone else. “These transactions don’t take place on a handshake,” he said. Still, being unregulated, there is no standard contract, no standard capital requirements, and no standard way of valuating securities in these transactions. As a result, Pincus said she wouldn’t be surprised to see a surge in litigation as defaults start happening. “There’s a lot of outcry right now for more regulation and more transparency,” said Pincus.A meltdown in the CDS market has potentially even wider ramifications nationwide than the subprime crisis. If bond insurance disappears or becomes too costly, lenders will become even more cautious about making loans, and this could impact everyone from mortgage-seekers to municipalities that need money to fix roads and build schools. “We’re seeing players in all of those spaces being more circumspect about whose credit they’re going to guarantee and what exactly the credit obligation is,” said Ellen Marshall, partner at Manatt, Phelps & Phillips LLP.Shimpi admits a meltdown or even a slowdown in the CDS market would affect the amount and cost of liquidity in the market. However, he dismisses concerns that municipalities and others seeking capital could be left in the dust. “Even if the U.S. takes a hit, there are other markets in the world that have different dynamics, and capital flows are international,” he said.Still, most agree the potential repercussions are far-reaching. “It’s the ripple effects, the domino effects” that are worrisome, said Pincus. “I think it’s [going to be] one of the next shoes to fall” in the credit crisis. Miller said the subprime debacle, rising unemployment, record-high oil prices, and now CDS market troubles “have all the makings of the perfect storm…. There are some economists who say this could be another 1929 — but I don’t believe it,” he said. “We have a lot of safeguards built into the system that did not exist in 1929 and 1930.” None of them, though, are directly targeted at CDS. On Wall Street, innovators are always ahead of regulators. And that can sometimes have a very steep price.

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284430

Samsung KODEX 200 US Treasury Notes Balanced ETF

Mortgage Crisis Spreads Past Subprime Loans(Feb. 12, 2008)

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133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Mortgage Crisis Spreads Past Subprime Loans(Feb. 12, 2008)

The credit crisis is no longer just a subprime mortgage problem.As home prices fall and banks tighten lending standards, people with good, or prime, credit histories are falling behind on their payments for home loans, auto loans and credit cards at a quickening pace, according to industry data and economists.The rise in prime delinquencies, while less severe than the one in the subprime market, nonetheless poses a threat to the battered housing market and weakening economy, which some specialists say is in a recession or headed for one.Until recently, people with good credit, who tend to pay their bills on time and manage their finances well, were viewed as a bulwark against the economic strains posed by rising defaults among borrowers with blemished, or subprime, credit.“This collapse in housing value is sucking in all borrowers,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com.Like subprime mortgages, many prime loans made in recent years allowed borrowers to pay less initially and face higher adjustable payments a few years later. As long as home prices were rising, these borrowers could refinance their loans or sell their properties to pay off their mortgages. But now, with prices falling and lenders clamping down, homeowners with solid credit are starting to come under the same financial stress as those with subprime credit.“Subprime was a symptom of the problem,” said James F. Keegan, a bond portfolio manager at American Century Investments, a mutual fund company. “The problem was we had a debt or credit bubble.”The bursting of that bubble has led to steep losses across the financial industry. American International Group said on Monday that auditors found it may have understated losses on complex financial instruments linked to mortgages and corporate loans.The running turmoil is also stirring fears that some hedge funds may run into trouble. At the end of September, nearly 4 percent of prime mortgages were past due or in foreclosure, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.That was the highest rate since the group started tracking prime and subprime mortgages separately in 1998. The delinquency and foreclosure rate for all mortgages, 7.3 percent, is higher than at any time since the group started tracking that data in 1979, largely as a result of the surge in subprime lending during the last few years.An example of the spreading credit crisis is seen in Don Doyle, a computer engineer at Lockheed Martin who makes a six-figure income and had a stellar credit score in 2004, when he refinanced his home in Northern California to take cash out to pay for his daughter’s college tuition.Mr. Doyle, 52, is now worried that he will have to file for bankruptcy, because he cannot afford to make the higher variable payments on his mortgage, and he cannot sell his home for more than his $740,000 mortgage.“The whole plan was to get out” before his rate reset, he said. “Now I am caught. I can’t sell my house. I’m having a hard time refinancing. I’ve avoided bankruptcy for months trying to pull this out of my savings.”The default rate for prime mortgages is still far lower than for subprime loans, about 24 percent of which are delinquent or in foreclosure. Some economists note that slightly more than a third of American homeowners have paid off their mortgages completely. This group is generally more affluent and contributes more to consumer spending and the economy relative to its size.Unlike subprime borrowers, who tend to have lower incomes and fewer assets, prime borrowers have greater means to restructure their debt if they lose jobs or encounter other financial challenges. The recent reductions in short term interest rates by the Federal Reserve should also help by reducing the reset rate for adjustable loans.

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133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Dot-com veteran: There’s no bubble now(Nov 3 2014)

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133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Dot-com veteran: There’s no bubble now(Nov 3 2014)

Despite a few seemingly high-flying stock valuations, the dot-com sector isn’t in another tech bubble, Razorfish co-founder Craig Kanarick said Monday.Comparisons, he said, are moot. “I think they’re really off base because both the market itself and the people are completely different than it was 15 years ago,” he said. “You know, in 1999, you had, what, 450, 500 IPOs and, like ours, a fifth of them doubled on the first day. We’re not going to see numbers like that, you know, even close to that this year.”Kanarick, whose then-4-year-old interactive agency went public on April 27, 1999, watched his $16 stock double the same day. It was delisted from the in 2003 and eventually sold for $530 million.On CNBC’s “Halftime Report,” Kanarick said that the tech investing scene had evolved.“The IPO fever has changed to, I think, Series A fever, Series B fever, because these people are now going through crowdfunding, angel funding, Series A, Series B, all sorts of VC funding before they get to the public market,” he said. “And that’s radically different than it was 15 years ago.”The dot-com era of the late 1990s, Kanarick added, was one in which companies were betting on a distant future of ubiquitous connectivity.“I think what the bet was then was about a longer future, that when the Internet finally arrives for everybody, then we’ll have customers, then we’ll make money,” he said. “What’s happening for almost all these companies now, even with high valuations, is they have customers. A lot of them have revenue, so it’s just a different type of feeling.”The veteran tech entrepreneur said that a couple of his current favorite tech names were Uber and Airbnb, “companies that are just sort of disrupting markets and taking assets that weren’t monetized and leveraging them. I think those are really exciting to me.”Correct valuations, he added, were open to interpretation.“It’s hard to tell, exactly,” he said. “They seem high, but at the same time I haven’t seen companies that grow and have the type of reach that those companies have had before.”Twitter and Facebook remain “fascinating,” he said, expressing admiration for Pinterest, as well.Kanarick’s second act involves an indie food purveyor, Mouth, which has raised funding via venture capital firms and private investors.“We are part of this sort of growing movement of both a revolution in the food industry toward smaller brands and different type of manufacturing, and the huge, monster e-commerce trend,” he said.While there is an increased interest in specific dietary profiles, such as gluten-free or the Paleo diet, Kanarick said that the food scene had evolved.“I think also that people have taken an interest in food that they never have before. It’s a hobby for people,” he said. “Young people are spending probably more money on new restaurants and food products than they are on music and film. And so, I think that is a big part of it. People have an interest in where their food comes from, and they’re also rebelling against the equivalent of large pharma, large food, big food companies. They want stuff that feels better to them and is more pure.”

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133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

U.S. Service Industries Lose Momentum(2018-8-3)

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U.S. Service Industries Lose Momentum(2018-8-3)

The U.S. service sector’s rapid expansion cooled in July, though most industries indicated business remains solid.An index of nonmanufacturing activity—reflecting industries such as hair-cutting and accounting—fell to 55.7 in last month from 59.1 in June, the industry group Institute for Supply Management said Friday. That marked the lowest level in almost a year. Any reading above 50 indicates rising activity, as determined by factors such as production, sales and prices.Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected a reading of 58.5.Service industries make up most of the economy. The report suggests the sector remains healthy and growing—sales, production and exports all continued to rise as they have been in recent years. But growth in each slowed last month.Businesses struggled to meet demand for their services in part because they are having trouble finding workers, said Anthony Nieves, head of the ISM survey. Unemployment, at 3.9% in July, is near the lowest level in years. He also pointed to worries about trade disputes between the U.S. and other countries, including China, that might be affecting business plans.Mr. Nieves said activity had risen so quickly earlier this summer that the economy was at risk of overheating. In July, the sector reverted back to the trend of recent years, which he said reflected more balanced, steady growth. Economic output in the U.S. grew at a 4.1% rate in the second quarter, the fastest in nearly four years, and many private-sector economists are calling for 3% growth in the current quarter.“This helps us with a little bit of cooling off right now,” Mr. Nieves said, adding: “It’s better than the economy overheating.”Comments from companies in the survey suggested they remain upbeat.“Current local and national conditions are good,” one executive from the finance and insurance industry said in the survey. “On track to meet goals and projections for 2018.”The report showed companies stepped up hiring to meet demand. An index of hiring across service industries picked up, rising to 56.1 in July from 53.6 in June.Meanwhile, inflation pressures rose. An index of prices for materials and services climbed to 63.4 in July from 60.7 a month earlier.Write to Josh Mitchell at joshua.mitchell@wsj.com

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U.S. Factory Sector Clocks Strongest Growth in 14 Years(2018-9-4)

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U.S. Factory Sector Clocks Strongest Growth in 14 Years(2018-9-4)

WASHINGTON—American factory activity in August expanded at the strongest pace in more than 14 years, despite rising tensions with some of the U.S.’s largest trade partners.The Institute for Supply Management on Tuesday said its manufacturing index rose to 61.3 in August, the highest level since May 2004, from 58.1 in July. Sales of factory-made products, or new orders, output and employment all grew at a faster pace in August.Tuesday’s release surprised analysts who had expected a slowdown in the industry in light of rising trade tensions and a typically weaker month for factory activity. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected a 57.5 reading for August.“Despite concerns over U.S. protectionist policies, manufacturing sentiment remains on a solid footing, supported in large part by firm domestic demand,” said Pooja Sriram, U.S. economist at Barclays.The U.S. and Europe, China and other countries are in the midst of trade battles stemming from steel and aluminum tariffs the Trump administration enacted earlier this year.Mohamed A. El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, tweeted, “In addition to highlighting the strength of the U.S. #economy, this also points to the more general theme of divergence in advanced countries’ economic performance and policies.”Though most economists hailed Tuesday’s report as a sign of robust growth continuing into the second half of 2018, some analysts said there are signs of overheating in the manufacturing industry.“The last time we have seen something akin to the current run late in an expansion occurred in” the late 1980s, when the Federal Reserve had to raise the fed funds target rate to almost 10% to tamp down inflation, according to Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities. “If you want to conclude from this quick history lesson that the Fed is currently too easy and in the process of making a policy mistake, I would not object.”Most private economists expect the Fed will raise short-term interest rates two more times this year, once in September and again in December, with strong economic data continuing to roll into the summer months.Despite the headline growth in factory activity, there are latent signs recent trade actions may be beginning to take a toll. An underlying gauge of new export orders for primary metals, transportation equipment and machinery declined in August, with machinery last declining at the beginning of 2017.“We’re a significant exporter of railcars, airplanes, automobiles…Machinery is our number 6 industry sector,” said Tim Fiore, who oversees the ISM survey of factory purchasing and supply managers. “If export markets are closed off to us, orders will go down, [then] exports and production.”Trade tensions, coupled with what appear to be economic slowdowns in some of the U.S.’s biggest trading partners, could be headwinds for the manufacturing sector.Tuesday’s ISM report also showed a measure of inflation grew at a slower pace; the Backlog of Orders Index continued to expand, at higher levels compared with the previous month; and imports grew at a slower pace.Broader economic growth picked up robustly in the second quarter after a modest slowdown in the early months of 2018. The unemployment rate declined below 4% this spring and forecasters expect solid growth this year, supported by recent tax cuts and strong consumer sentiment.Write to Sharon Nunn at sharon.nunn@wsj.com

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US jobs report shows a steady slowdown in the labor market (Jul 5, 2024)

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451540

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US jobs report shows a steady slowdown in the labor market (Jul 5, 2024)

The US economy added 206,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.Wall Street was hoping for a “Goldilocks” number for June, which would show a slow and steady decline in monthly job gains that equates with a slowing economy.Markets showed little reaction to the jobs data, though the S&P later hit an intraday high.A dramatic increase in jobs could have pushed the Federal Reserve to hold off on cutting rates, keeping lending costs high for businesses and households.On the other hand, a dramatic decrease could have indicated a concerning weakness in the labor market.Friday’s number shows that the labor market remains strong, but is gradually ebbing.For the past few years, Federal Reserve officials said they wanted the labor market to get into better balance after the pandemic ushered in a red-hot labor market, which at its height had a whopping 12 million job openings coupled with an ultra-low unemployment rate. That caused employers to raise wages to attract workers, but in turn, helped usher in high inflation, prompting the central bank to raise rates.Now, Fed officials are starting to get a taste of what they wished for. It might not end well, though.Friday’s jobs report showed the unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in June, the highest level since November 2021. It also marked the second straight month that the unemployment rate rose.Fed officials are currently wrestling with when to cut interest rates, which are at the highest level since 2001. They’ve intentionally kept rates high for a long time to slow economic growth in order to rein in inflation, which remains above its 2% target.The problem, though, is that the Fed is notoriously bad at timing its rate cuts correctly. It’s no simple task, since there are so many unknowns about the economic outlook.Still, if the unemployment rate continues to rise, that could mean the Fed left interest rates at an overly restrictive level for too long, and should have cut rates sooner to minimize the economic fallout.

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TIGER AGGREGATE BOND ACTIVE

Nowcast

SellSmartR

CORE16 Model Forecasts June CPI at 2.6 Percent

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SellSmartR

CORE16 Model Forecasts June CPI at 2.6 Percent

You can check out CORE16’s proprietary CPI forecasting model at the link below.👉 https://core16-cpi-nowcast.streamlit.app/CORE16 CPI model predicted June CPI (to be announced in July) at 2.6 percent.What is CPI, and Why Does It Need to Be PredictedThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) is not just a basic inflation number.CPI is one of the most important economic indicators that moves interest rates, bonds, and equity markets.The Federal Reserve, in particular, uses CPI as a core reference when setting monetary policy.In that sense, understanding CPI is essentially predicting the direction of the market.But CPI is released with a lag—each month’s figure is reported in the following month.Before the official number comes out, the market has no choice but to rely on speculation, and that gap in visibility has long created differences in investor timing. To address this gap, the Cleveland Fed developed a CPI nowcasting model.By incorporating high-frequency data such as oil prices, food costs, and gasoline prices,the model provides real-time CPI estimates even before official releases.It is structurally simple, but its speed and interpretability have earned it a strong reputation as a practical tool for market insight.Inspired by the Cleveland Fed, CORE16 built its own CPI forecasting model tailored for domestic investors.Rather than focusing on complex algorithms, the goal was clear:deliver the fastest and most reasonable estimate based on the latest available data. The CORE16 model updates daily in real time.Between 2024 and March 2025, it reduced forecast error by approximately 20 percent compared to existing methods.Looking ahead, CORE16 plans to expand beyond CPI to cover employment data, retail sales, corporate earnings outlooks, and more.Our mission is to help investors see the market more clearly and respond faster—through data-driven insight and proactive decision-making.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Retirement Funds Embrace Risk: A New Era for Private Assets

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Retirement Funds Embrace Risk: A New Era for Private Assets

Why BlackRock Is Reshaping Retirement PortfoliosIn June 2025, BlackRock—the world’s largest asset manager—announced a shift in how it approaches retirement investing. Its flagship Target Date Funds (TDFs) will now include private equity and private credit—two asset classes long considered too risky or opaque for the average investor.But this isn’t just a new product mix. Retirement funds hold trillions. A change here reverberates across markets.TDFs, in BriefTDFs automatically adjust over time based on your planned retirement year (e.g., TDF 2050). Younger investors are exposed to more stocks early on, shifting into safer assets as retirement nears.Until now, that mix was limited to public stocks, bonds, and a bit of real estate. BlackRock says that’s no longer enough. Why Private Assets?Private Equity: Invests in unlisted companies. High growth, low liquidity.Private Credit: Direct loans to businesses, bypassing banks. Attractive yields, but riskier.These markets are less transparent and highly illiquid. Historically restricted, they’re now being brought into mainstream retirement strategies.Why Were They Banned Before?Because of structural risks:Lock-up periods tie up investor funds for years.Private firms share less information than public ones.Weak regulation raises default and fraud risk.Too much money chasing private deals can inflate asset bubbles.Why Now?1. Regulations are loosening.Post-Biden rollbacks under the new administration have softened financial rules—especially around private lending.2. Rate cuts are coming.With U.S. rates at ~4.25% and likely to fall, leveraged private deals (M&A, buyouts) could thrive.3. The 60:40 portfolio is outdated.BlackRock CEO Larry Fink now recommends 50:30:20, with private assets playing a formal role in long-term growth and diversification.What It SignalsThis isn’t just a BlackRock update—it’s a message to the market:Private capital is entering the core of global portfolios.Expect more retail exposure to private markets, growing flows into unlisted firms, and a rethinking of what “retirement-safe” really means.But with more exposure comes more risk. Shadow banking, liquidity mismatches, and regulatory blind spots could all become flashpoints.The Bottom LinePrivate assets offer promise—but also complexity. As they move into the retirement mainstream, expect richer returns and tougher questions. The very definition of “secure retirement” is evolving—and fast.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Investment Insight

🎉The Smartest Way to Sell — Now available as an App!📱

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