
PetroChina worth $1 trillion ... briefly(Nov. 5, 2007)
created At: 2/12/2025

Strong Sell
This analysis strongly recommends selling due to identified risk factors. Please review the details carefully before making a decision.
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Fact
PetroChina's shares nearly tripled on their Shanghai Stock Exchange debut, rising to 43.96 yuan ($5.90) from 16.70 yuan ($2.24) IPO price.
The IPO raised 66.8 billion yuan ($8.94 billion), a record for a mainland Chinese exchange.
PetroChina became the world’s first $1 trillion company in market capitalization, surpassing Exxon Mobil’s $488 billion.
Despite the Shanghai surge, PetroChina's U.S. shares fell 11.2%, dropping $28.56 to $226.50 after a Bear Stearns downgrade.
Bear Stearns labeled PetroChina "overvalued," noting a 51% premium over its 2008 fair value target.
PetroChina trades at a 72% price-to-earnings premium over Exxon Mobil, despite Exxon’s stronger earnings and oil reserves.
Chinese investors are aggressively buying state-backed corporate giants, seeing them as proxies for economic growth.
PetroChina struggles with production growth and is squeezed by government-controlled domestic oil prices despite rising global oil prices.
Opinion
The disconnect between PetroChina’s Shanghai and New York valuations exposes an overheated, sentiment-driven rally in China’s stock market. While local investors blindly chase state-backed corporate giants, the fundamentals tell a different story. The sharp sell-off in New York suggests global investors see PetroChina as grossly overvalued, especially compared to industry leader Exxon Mobil.
China’s stock market frenzy has echoes of past bubbles, where euphoric domestic investors push valuations to irrational levels. The limited access to cross-border trading prevents arbitrage from correcting the disparity, but eventually, market forces will catch up. When sentiment shifts, overstretched valuations in China could trigger a severe market correction, wiping out naive investors.
Core Sell Point
Irrational exuberance fuels China’s market bubble—global investors are already cashing out.
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