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Analysts remain deeply divided on Samsung Electronics, with some raising target prices to ₩130,000, while others cut them below ₩100,000.

The key debate centers around Samsung’s position in the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market. While some see a turnaround with HBM3E mass production, others fear oversupply risks.

For now, the market leans bullish, citing rising CAPEX guidance from Big Tech companies as a key tailwind for AI infrastructure investments.

Brokerage Target Price Revisions

Bullish: KB Securities (₩120,000 → ₩130,000)

• Justification: HBM3E supply ramp-up.

• Kim Dong-won (Head of Research, KB Securities):

  • "Samsung is entering a phase where concerns are rapidly turning into optimism."

  • "With HBM3E mass production expected in Q4, we see Samsung as the top KOSPI pick for H2."

Samsung lags SK Hynix in HBM3E adoption:

• SK Hynix began HBM3E 8-layer supply to NVIDIA in March and will start HBM3E 12-layer shipments in Q4.

• Samsung is still undergoing NVIDIA’s quality testing and plans Q3 mass production for HBM3E 8-layer, with HBM3E 12-layer shipments later this year.

Bearish: iM Securities (formerly Hi Investment & Securities) (₩101,000 → ₩97,000)

• Concerns:

  • HBM oversupply risk in 2025.

  • Samsung’s HBM3E supply ramp-up may intensify competition, leading to pricing pressure.

  • AI investment bubble concerns.

• Song Myung-seop (iM Securities):

  • "This year, HBM demand is expected to reach 880 million GB, but production plans total 1.38 billion GB."

  • "If NVIDIA begins purchasing Samsung’s HBM3E, we could see oversupply and margin compression in the HBM sector."

Additionally, NVIDIA’s Blackwell AI accelerator delay could further impact Samsung’s HBM3E adoption.

• The Information (U.S. tech media):

  • Blackwell production was postponed from late 2024 to Q1 2025.

  • Since HBM3E is a core component of Blackwell, delays could push back Samsung’s shipments.

  • However, KB Securities argues this could work in Samsung’s favor, allowing it more time for mass production preparation.

Big Tech CAPEX: The AI Investment Cycle Continues

Despite AI bubble concerns, Big Tech companies continue to raise AI-related infrastructure spending.

• Meta increased 2024 CAPEX guidance from $35B → $37B.

  • H1 CAPEX: $15.2B

  • H2 projected CAPEX: $21.8B

• Microsoft and Amazon have also signaled higher H2 spending.

• Shin Ji-hyun (Shinhan Investment & Securities):

  • "Meta’s CAPEX revision reaffirms strong confidence in AI investment."

If quarter-over-quarter CAPEX increases, this could fuel further AI value chain growth, benefiting Samsung’s AI-related semiconductor sales.

Legacy DRAM & NAND: Supply Shortages Emerging?

While HBM faces supply concerns, legacy DRAM and NAND markets are tightening.

• Morgan Stanley:

  • "The shift toward HBM has created investment gaps in traditional DRAM, leading to potential shortages."

  • Predicts a 23% demand-supply gap in DRAM for 2024, driving price increases.

• DRAM Pricing:

  • PC DRAM (DDR4 8Gb 1Gx8): $2.10 (as of July 31, stable for 3 months).

• Shinhan Investment:

  • "Stronger-than-expected memory price growth could offset some of the bearish pressures on Samsung’s stock."

Samsung plans to mass-produce QLC-based 64TB and 128TB eSSD products in H2 2024, aiming to capitalize on NAND pricing recovery.

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