Samsung Electronics, the largest stock on the KOSPI, continues its relentless decline. Amid growing fears of a U.S. recession and weaker-than-expected Q3 earnings, the stock hit a new 52-week low, sparking a debate between bulls and bears over its recovery prospects.
According to the Korea Exchange on September 11, Samsung Electronics closed at ₩64,900, down 1.96% from the previous session. During the session, the stock plunged over 3% to ₩64,200, marking a new 52-week low. This level was last seen in May 2023.
Samsung Electronics has lost 18.5% year-to-date and has dropped 14% in just the past month (Aug 12 – Sep 11).
With the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision set for September 17–18 (U.S. time), market caution is rising, exacerbating risk-off sentiment in large-cap stocks.
Additionally, skepticism about AI-driven growth sustainability is fueling concerns over the overvaluation of major tech stocks.
Diverging Views on Semiconductor Outlook
Securities firms are sharply divided on the semiconductor industry’s prospects.
Bearish Case: Earnings Decline and Target Cuts
Some analysts remain pessimistic, forecasting disappointing Q3 earnings and cutting their price targets.
Chae Min-sook (Korea Investment & Securities):
Other recent target cuts include:
KB Securities: ₩130,000 → ₩95,000
DB Financial Investment: ₩110,000 → ₩100,000
Bullish Case: DRAM Price Rebound & AI Growth
Optimists argue that memory chip price recovery could extend Samsung's growth cycle.
Acknowledges NAND market slowdown and a weaker Korean won as headwinds.
However, believes that DRAM’s supply-driven upcycle is still intact.
Recommends a buy strategy, given the sharp price correction.
Forecasts DRAM and NAND prices to rise 11% QoQ in Q3.
Highlights potential AI-driven demand from device makers in Q4 and Q1 2025.
Some analysts maintain that long-term bottom-fishing strategies remain viable.
Despite near-term risks, expects earnings momentum to continue.
Suggests buying on dips for long-term demand recovery.
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