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Samsung Electronics, the largest stock on the KOSPI, continues its relentless decline. Amid growing fears of a U.S. recession and weaker-than-expected Q3 earnings, the stock hit a new 52-week low, sparking a debate between bulls and bears over its recovery prospects.

According to the Korea Exchange on September 11, Samsung Electronics closed at ₩64,900, down 1.96% from the previous session. During the session, the stock plunged over 3% to ₩64,200, marking a new 52-week low. This level was last seen in May 2023.

Samsung Electronics has lost 18.5% year-to-date and has dropped 14% in just the past month (Aug 12 – Sep 11).

With the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision set for September 17–18 (U.S. time), market caution is rising, exacerbating risk-off sentiment in large-cap stocks.

Additionally, skepticism about AI-driven growth sustainability is fueling concerns over the overvaluation of major tech stocks.

Diverging Views on Semiconductor Outlook

Securities firms are sharply divided on the semiconductor industry’s prospects.

Bearish Case: Earnings Decline and Target Cuts

Some analysts remain pessimistic, forecasting disappointing Q3 earnings and cutting their price targets.

Chae Min-sook (Korea Investment & Securities):

• Lowered Q3 operating profit forecast to ₩10.3 trillion (vs. consensus of ₩13.3 trillion).

  • Reasons for the downgrade:

    • Rising memory inventories at smartphone makers are weighing on DRAM and NAND shipments.

    • ASP (Average Selling Price) growth is expected to be in the low single digits.

    • One-off costs related to performance-based bonuses (PS) in the semiconductor division.

  • Price target cut from ₩120,000 → ₩96,000.

    Noh Geun-chang (Hyundai Motor Securities):

  Cited ongoing weakness in smartphone and PC demand due to high interest rates and inflation.

  • Lowered price target from ₩110,000 → ₩104,000.

Other recent target cuts include:

• KB Securities: ₩130,000 → ₩95,000

• DB Financial Investment: ₩110,000 → ₩100,000

Bullish Case: DRAM Price Rebound & AI Growth

Optimists argue that memory chip price recovery could extend Samsung's growth cycle.

• Park Yoo-ak (Kiwoom Securities):

Acknowledges NAND market slowdown and a weaker Korean won as headwinds.

However, believes that DRAM’s supply-driven upcycle is still intact.

Recommends a buy strategy, given the sharp price correction.

• Baek Gil-hyun (Yuanta Securities):

Forecasts DRAM and NAND prices to rise 11% QoQ in Q3.

Highlights potential AI-driven demand from device makers in Q4 and Q1 2025.

Some analysts maintain that long-term bottom-fishing strategies remain viable.

• Noh Geun-chang (Hyundai Motor Securities):

Despite near-term risks, expects earnings momentum to continue.

Suggests buying on dips for long-term demand recovery.

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