You can check out CORE16’s proprietary CPI forecasting model at the link below.
👉 https://core16-cpi-nowcast.streamlit.app/
CORE16 CPI model predicted June CPI (to be announced in July) at 2.6 percent.
What is CPI, and Why Does It Need to Be Predicted
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is not just a basic inflation number.
CPI is one of the most important economic indicators that moves interest rates, bonds, and equity markets.
The Federal Reserve, in particular, uses CPI as a core reference when setting monetary policy.
In that sense, understanding CPI is essentially predicting the direction of the market.
But CPI is released with a lag—each month’s figure is reported in the following month.
Before the official number comes out, the market has no choice but to rely on speculation, and that gap in visibility has long created differences in investor timing.
To address this gap, the Cleveland Fed developed a CPI nowcasting model.
By incorporating high-frequency data such as oil prices, food costs, and gasoline prices,
the model provides real-time CPI estimates even before official releases.
It is structurally simple, but its speed and interpretability have earned it a strong reputation as a practical tool for market insight.
Inspired by the Cleveland Fed, CORE16 built its own CPI forecasting model tailored for domestic investors.
Rather than focusing on complex algorithms, the goal was clear:
deliver the fastest and most reasonable estimate based on the latest available data.
The CORE16 model updates daily in real time.
Between 2024 and March 2025, it reduced forecast error by approximately 20 percent compared to existing methods.
Looking ahead, CORE16 plans to expand beyond CPI to cover employment data, retail sales, corporate earnings outlooks, and more.
Our mission is to help investors see the market more clearly and respond faster—through data-driven insight and proactive decision-making.
