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Gold futures have once again hit a fresh all-time high, fueling speculation that prices could rally to $3,700 per ounce by year-end. On April 15, June gold futures closed at $3,240.4, marking a 35% increase year-over-year. In response, Goldman Sachs raised its year-end price target from $3,300 to $3,700, citing mounting macro risks and structural tailwinds.

What’s Driving the Rally?

The current surge in gold is attributed to three overlapping catalysts:

1. Escalating geopolitical and trade uncertainty stemming from the Trump administration’s intensified protectionist stance. Some global banks have reportedly relocated gold holdings from London to New York, underscoring a shift toward physical asset security.

2. A weaker U.S. dollar and growing concerns over fiscal deficits are boosting gold's appeal as a hedge against currency debasement.

3. Sustained demand from central banks—notably China—and strong ETF inflows are reinforcing the structural bull case.

The People’s Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for five consecutive months, now holding 2,290 tonnes, while emerging-market central banks such as those in Poland, Turkey, and the Czech Republic have also expanded their holdings. Bloomberg analysts described this as a potential “modern gold standard revival.”

While UBS flagged short-term overheating and psychological resistance near current levels, it acknowledged that the combination of falling interest rates, a weakening dollar, and geopolitical risk continues to support a longer-term structural uptrend.

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