This analysis was written from a neutral perspective. We advise you to always make careful and well-informed investment decisions.
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Fact
2022년에는 투자자 심리가 매우 부정적이었음
하워드 마크스는 대중과 반대로 투자하는 것이 쉽지 않다고 언급
투자자 심리 지수는 2008년 금융위기 이후 가장 부정적인 수준이었음
부정적 심리가 극단에 달하면 단기 및 중기 시장 바닥을 형성하는 경향
2022년 10월 이후 시장 참여자들은 경기 침체 회피에 베팅하기 시작
Opinion
작년 투자자들의 극단적인 비관론이 오히려 시장 반등의 촉매제가 되었습니다. 그러나 이는 경기 펀더멘털의 개선이 아닌, 투자심리의 급격한 변화에 기인한 것으로 보입니다. 경제지표 악화, 금리 인상 지속, 은행 리스크 등 실물 경제의 불확실성이 여전한 상황에서, 이러한 급격한 심리 변화는 오히려 시장의 불안정성을 높이는 요인이 될 수 있습니다. 경기 침체 가능성을 너무 일찍 배제하고 위험자산에 무리하게 베팅하는 것은 위험할 수 있습니다.
Core Sell Point
장의 급격한 심리 변화는 경제 펀더멘털의 개선이 아닌 투자자들의 무리한 위험 선호에서 비롯되었으며, 이는 향후 시장 불안정성을 키우는 요인이 될 수 있습니다.
“Bullish measures are getting really bullish.”
This is an interesting statement, given how “bearish” sentiment was in 2022. As I noted then:
“Investor sentiment has become so bearish that it’s bullish.
One of the hardest things to do is go “against” the prevailing bias regarding investing. Such is known as contrarian investing. One of the most famous contrarian investors is Howard Marks, who once stated:
“Resisting – and thereby achieving success as a contrarian – isn’t easy. Things combine to make it difficult; including natural herd tendencies and the pain imposed by being out of step, particularly when momentum invariably makes pro-cyclical actions look correct for a while.
Given the uncertain nature of the future, and thus the difficulty of being confident your position is the right one – especially as price moves against you – it’s challenging to be a lonely contrarian.”
Here is that article’s composite index of retail and professional investor sentiment to visualize just how negative sentiment was then. You will note that sentiment was pushing levels of bearishness not seen since the 2008 “Financial Crisis.”
When levels of negativity reach very low levels, such historically equates to short- to intermediate-term market bottoms. Such is because excesses get built with everyone on the same side of the trade. At that time, everyone was so bearish it was a bullish measure. As we stated then, “the reflexive trade will be rapid when the shift in sentiment occurs.”
Looking back, it is pretty evident such was the case, particularly with the QQQbelieved to be dead. Of course, hindsight is always 20/20. Last year there were many reasons to be bearish. Things were seemingly so bad, with everyone expecting a recession, that there was nowhere to go but up. Since October, market participants have been betting on avoiding a recession. Such has led to a sharp reversal in bearish sentiment as the “Fear Of Missing Out,” or FOMO, kicked in.
Since the end of January, despite the Fed hiking rates, a bank solvency crisis, and weakening economic data, the market has continued to “climb a wall of worry.” In fact, not only did it climb a wall of worry.
