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Samsung Hits New Lows: Where Is the Bottom? (Sep 11, 2024)
created At: 3/15/2025
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This analysis includes a sell recommendation. Please carefully review all mentioned risk before proceeding.
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Fact
Samsung down for 7 straight sessions. Foreign investors sold ₩2.69 trillion in 6 days. Q3 forecasts: Revenue: ₩79.3 trillion (-5% vs. consensus) Operating profit: ₩10.3 trillion (-23% vs. consensus) Smartphone memory inventory rising to 13–14 weeks. HBM expansion planned for Q4.
Opinion
The market isn’t just reacting to weak earnings—it’s signaling deep concerns over Samsung’s competitive positioning in AI semiconductors. Samsung’s failure to rally alongside NVIDIA suggests that investors no longer see it as a clear AI winner. Rising smartphone memory inventory (13–14 weeks) implies that consumer demand weakness may be deeper than expected. HBM expansion in Q4 is promising but faces execution risks, as the market is skeptical about Samsung’s ability to close the gap with SK Hynix.
Core Sell Point
With B2C demand weakening and AI semiconductor leadership slipping, Samsung’s planned HBM expansion may not be enough to offset broader concerns. Instead of being a growth catalyst, HBM could turn into a risk factor if execution falls short.

Samsung Electronics extended its losing streak to seven consecutive sessions, hitting its lowest level of the year amid growing concerns over Q3 earnings and U.S. recession fears.

Market Reaction & Foreign Selling Pressure

On September 11, Samsung closed at ₩64,900 (-1.96%), marking another 52-week low after hitting ₩66,000 the previous day.

Meanwhile, in the U.S. stock market (Sept 10 ET):

  • NVIDIA gained +1.53% to $108.10, reflecting continued strength in AI stocks.

  • However, Samsung failed to benefit, suggesting that investors remain skeptical of its AI positioning.

Foreign investors sold ₩2.69 trillion worth of Samsung shares over six trading days (Sept 3–10), exacerbating downward pressure.

Brokerage Downgrades on Q3 Earnings Concerns

Target Price Cuts:

  • Korea Investment & Securities: ₩120,000 → ₩96,000

  • KB Securities: ₩130,000 → ₩95,000

  • Hyundai Motor Securities: ₩110,000 → ₩104,000

  • DB Financial Investment: ₩110,000 → ₩100,000

  • Meritz Securities: ₩108,000 → ₩95,000

Key Drivers of Downgrades:

  1. Weak B2C Demand → Sluggish consumer demand affecting memory shipments.

  2. Inventory Concerns → Smartphone memory inventory rising to 13–14 weeks, pressuring DRAM/NAND shipments.

  3. One-Time Costs → Semiconductor bonus provisions & lower inventory valuation gains impacting Q3 earnings.

Korea Investment & Securities Q3 Forecast:

  • Revenue: ₩79.3 trillion (-5% vs. consensus ₩83.3 trillion)

  • Operating Profit: ₩10.3 trillion (-23% vs. consensus ₩13 trillion, below Q2’s ₩10.4 trillion)

  • Chae Min-sook (Korea Investment & Securities):

    • "Both DRAM and NAND shipments will decline QoQ."

    • "ASP (Average Selling Price) gains will remain single-digit, limiting upside."

    • "Q3 earnings are expected to miss estimates."

Will HBM Expansion in Q4 Be a Turning Point?

Despite Q3 concerns, analysts highlight Samsung’s plan to expand High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) sales in Q4.

  • Kim Ji-won (KB Securities):

    • "Samsung plans to significantly increase HBM shipments in Q4."

    • "If premium product sales rise, Q4 earnings should improve QoQ."

However, market skepticism remains high regarding Samsung’s ability to catch up in AI-driven semiconductor demand.

[Compliance Note]

  • All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.

  • The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.

  • Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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