Tesla shares surged +22.3% on Apr 9
Q1 earnings scheduled for Apr 22
UBS lowered its price target from $225 → $190
Energy storage business faces supply chain risks from 125% China tariffs
Opinion
UBS views the rally as being driven by sentiment surrounding the tariff suspension, rather than any improvement in fundamentals.
The firm believes earnings expectations remain too high, and expects Tesla to guide lower in the upcoming earnings release.
Core Sell Point
Tesla’s recent rebound lacks fundamental support.
Ongoing supply chain pressures and likely earnings downgrades may weigh on the stock going forward. Investors should be cautious of short-term price spikes disconnected from operational reality.
Tesla (TSLA) shares surged ahead of its upcoming Q1 earnings report on April 22, but UBS remains skeptical. UBS analyst Joseph Spak stated that Tesla’s 22% rally on April 9—following the reciprocal tariff suspension announcement—is not supported by fundamentals.
UBS believes market expectations remain overly optimistic, and sees a high likelihood that Tesla will lower its forward guidance during the Q1 earnings call. Of particular concern is the energy storage segment, which has seen recent growth but now faces supply chain risks due to the new 125% tariff on Chinese imports—a key source of materials.
Reflecting these risks, UBS maintained its “Sell” rating on Tesla and cut its price target from $225 to $190, citing continued uncertainty in earnings visibility and supply stability. UBS recommends caution in interpreting the recent rally as sustainable.
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