Macquarie downgrade: "Buy" → "Neutral".
Target price cut: ₩125,000 → ₩64,000 (-48.8%).
2026 HBM revenue forecast:
Samsung: $13 billion
SK Hynix: $30 billion (2.3x higher)
Primary reasons for downgrade:
Memory downcycle, DRAM oversupply, ASP declines, HBM supply delays.
Opinion
Macquarie’s drastic target price cut is a major warning sign. While domestic brokerages are making gradual reductions, Macquarie is directly addressing the structural issues in Samsung’s business.
The HBM market gap is particularly concerning—Samsung’s 2026 revenue is projected to be only 43% of SK Hynix’s. This is not just a temporary setback but a sign of long-term competitive erosion.
The Korean market’s expectation of a "DRAM supply shift to a shortage" in 2025 could be overly optimistic, reflecting a bullish bias rather than reality.
Core Sell Point
Samsung’s weakened position in HBM and potential loss of DRAM market leadership are structural risks, not short-term setbacks. The stock price has yet to fully reflect these long-term competitive weaknesses.
Global brokerage Macquarie has cut its target price for Samsung Electronics by 50%, citing deteriorating memory market conditions. This follows a similarly bearish outlook from Morgan Stanley, marking another harsh assessment of the Korean semiconductor industry from foreign investment banks.
Macquarie’s Key Takeaways
According to the financial investment industry, Macquarie downgraded Samsung from "Buy" to "Neutral" in a late-September report and cut its target price from ₩125,000 to ₩64,000 (-48.8%).
DRAM Oversupply → ASP (Average Selling Price) is reversing downward.
Weak Demand from Downstream Industries → Pressuring earnings.
HBM Supply Delays to NVIDIA → Weakening stock momentum.
Macquarie even raised the possibility that Samsung could lose its status as the world’s No.1 DRAM supplier.
Additionally, Samsung’s HBM revenue forecast for 2026 is only $13 billion, compared to SK Hynix’s $30 billion—just 43% of its competitor’s projected sales.
How Does This Compare to Korean Brokerages?
While domestic securities firms have also been lowering Samsung’s target price, none have made a cut as drastic as Macquarie’s.
Park Yoo-jin (Kiwoom Securities) argues that DRAM investment is not excessive and believes the market will shift from oversupply (2024) to undersupply (2025).
This contrast suggests that Korean analysts may still be overly optimistic, underestimating the depth of the structural challenges Samsung faces.
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