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article
박재훈투영인 프로필 사진박재훈투영인
U.S. Service Industries Lose Momentum(2018-8-3)
created At: 1/31/2025
Sell
Sell
This analysis includes a sell recommendation. Please carefully review all mentioned risk before proceeding.
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Fact
7월 미국 서비스 부문 확장세가 다소 둔화되었으나 대부분의 업종은 여전히 견조한 상태 비제조업 활동 지수는 6월 59.1에서 7월 55.7로 하락, 약 1년 만에 최저 수준 판매, 생산, 수출은 계속 증가세를 보였으나 증가 속도는 둔화됨 기업들은 노동력 부족과 무역 분쟁에 대한 우려로 어려움을 겪음
Opinion
비스 부문의 확장세가 둔화된 것은 경기 과열을 막는 데 도움이 될 수 있으나, 노동력 부족과 무역 갈등이 기업 활동에 부정적 영향을 미치고 있는 점은 우려할 만한 부분입니다. 지수 하락이 일시적인 조정인지, 아니면 향후 성장세 둔화로 이어질지 주의 깊게 지켜볼 필요가 있어 보입니다. 물가 상승 압력도 높아지고 있어 연준의 추가 금리 인상 가능성도 배제할 수 없는 상황입니다.
Core Sell Point
미국 서비스 부문 확장세가 7월 들어 둔화되었는데, 이는 노동력 부족과 무역 갈등 등의 영향으로 보이며 향후 성장세에 대한 우려를 자아내고 있습니다.

The U.S. service sector’s rapid expansion cooled in July, though most industries indicated business remains solid.

An index of nonmanufacturing activity—reflecting industries such as hair-cutting and accounting—fell to 55.7 in last month from 59.1 in June, the industry group Institute for Supply Management said Friday. That marked the lowest level in almost a year. Any reading above 50 indicates rising activity, as determined by factors such as production, sales and prices.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected a reading of 58.5.

Service industries make up most of the economy. The report suggests the sector remains healthy and growing—sales, production and exports all continued to rise as they have been in recent years. But growth in each slowed last month.

Businesses struggled to meet demand for their services in part because they are having trouble finding workers, said Anthony Nieves, head of the ISM survey. Unemployment, at 3.9% in July, is near the lowest level in years. He also pointed to worries about trade disputes between the U.S. and other countries, including China, that might be affecting business plans.

Mr. Nieves said activity had risen so quickly earlier this summer that the economy was at risk of overheating. In July, the sector reverted back to the trend of recent years, which he said reflected more balanced, steady growth. Economic output in the U.S. grew at a 4.1% rate in the second quarter, the fastest in nearly four years, and many private-sector economists are calling for 3% growth in the current quarter.

“This helps us with a little bit of cooling off right now,” Mr. Nieves said, adding: “It’s better than the economy overheating.”

Comments from companies in the survey suggested they remain upbeat.

“Current local and national conditions are good,” one executive from the finance and insurance industry said in the survey. “On track to meet goals and projections for 2018.”

The report showed companies stepped up hiring to meet demand. An index of hiring across service industries picked up, rising to 56.1 in July from 53.6 in June.

Meanwhile, inflation pressures rose. An index of prices for materials and services climbed to 63.4 in July from 60.7 a month earlier.

Write to Josh Mitchell at joshua.mitchell@wsj.com

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