David Rosenberg(경제학자·비관론자)가 AI 관련주 과열을 경고함.
Nvidia 실적 호조로 AI 테마가 상승세를 이어감.
S&P 500의 업종 내 편중(상위 몇 개 기술주가 주도) 현상이 닷컴 버블 시기와 유사함.
은행·소비재·운송주 등 경기민감주는 약세로, 경기 침체 위험을 시사함.
Opinion
AI 열풍에 휩쓸린 매수세가 현재 주가 수준을 지나치게 끌어올렸다는 지적이 나오고 있습니다. 닷컴 버블 때처럼 기술주가 지수를 주도하지만, 반면 은행·소비재·운송주 같은 경기민감주는 급락세를 보이고 있어 거시적 흐름이 불안해 보입니다. 이렇듯 시장이 일부 주식에 편중돼 상승하는 경우, 조정이 닥쳤을 때 그 충격은 예상보다 클 수 있다는 우려가 제기됩니다.
Core Sell Point
AI 관련주의 과열된 상승이 닷컴 버블 때처럼 경기 침체 위험을 가릴 수 있으므로, 투자자들은 한쪽으로 쏠린 시장에 신중하게 접근해야 한다.
Investors piling into stocks with artificial intelligence exposure may pay a hefty price.
Economist David Rosenberg, a bear known for his contrarian views, believes enthusiasm surrounding AI has become a major distraction from recession risks.
“No question that we have a price bubble,” the Rosenberg Research president told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Thursday.
According to Rosenberg, the AI surge has striking similarities to the late 1990s dot-com boom —particularly when it comes to the Nasdaq 100 breakout over the past six months.
″[This] looks very weird,” said Rosenberg, who served as Merrill Lynch’s chief North American economist from 2002 to 2009. “It’s way overextended.”
This week, Nvidia’s blowout quarter helped drive AI excitement to new levels. The chipmaker boosted its yearly forecast after delivering a strong quarterly earnings beat after Wednesday’s market close. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang cited booming demand for its AI chips.
“There are breadth measures for the S&P 500 that are the worst since 1999. Just seven mega-caps have accounted for 90% of this year’s price performance,” Rosenberg wrote. “You look at the tech weighting in the S&P 500 and it is up to 27%, where it was heading into 2000 as the dotcom bubble was peaking out and soon to roll over in spectacular fashion.”
“They have the highest torque to GDP. They’re down more than 30% from the cycle highs,” Rosenberg said. “They’re actually behaving in the exact same pattern they have going into the past four recessions.”
