logo

HomeArticlesServicePriceAbout

EN
logo
No Relevant Stock
Search Result
Firm
user
박재훈투영인
·
3 months ago
0
0
The Impact of Wikipedia Exposure Frequency on Stock Prices (Mar 10, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
3 months ago
0
0
The Impact of Wikipedia Exposure Frequency on Stock Prices (Mar 10, 2025)
"The Wikipedia Effect: Analyzing Investor Attention for Strategic Investment Decisions"This paper analyzes investment strategies in the stock market using Wikipedia page view trends as a measure of investor attention. Inspired by previous studies that used Twitter activity and Google search volumes as proxies for investor interest, this research empirically examines whether Wikipedia page views reflect investor attention and, in turn, influence actual investment performance.Wikipedia Page Views and Investor AttentionWikipedia is a freely accessible online encyclopedia where users can search and edit information. An increase in Wikipedia page views for a specific company or stock indicates heightened search activity and interest in that entity. This increased activity may be triggered by:New Information: Investors may seek more details on a company following major announcements, such as product launches, earnings reports, or M&A activities.News Coverage: When a company receives significant media attention, investors might turn to Wikipedia for additional background information.Social Media Influence: Mentions of a company on social media can drive investors to Wikipedia for further insights.Rising Interest: As a stock gains popularity, more investors may research it using Wikipedia.Retail Investor Influx: New retail investors often rely on Wikipedia as an initial source of information before making investment decisions.The Relationship Between Wikipedia Page Views and Investor InterestSince Wikipedia page views reflect information-seeking behavior, they can serve as a valuable proxy for measuring investor attention.Reducing Information Asymmetry: Wikipedia provides accessible corporate information, which is particularly beneficial for retail investors.Influencing Decision-Making: Investors may base their buy/sell decisions on information obtained from Wikipedia.Crowdsourced Intelligence: Wikipedia is a product of collective intelligence, offering a balanced and objective overview of companies.Feedback Loop Effect: Increased Wikipedia traffic can trigger further investor interest, potentially driving stock prices higher.Thus, a rise in Wikipedia page views signals growing investor interest, making it a useful indicator for identifying investment opportunities. However, it should be considered alongside other factors in a comprehensive analysis.The Relationship Between Wikipedia Page Views and Stock ReturnsWhy do companies with rising Wikipedia page views tend to deliver higher stock returns? The underlying mechanisms include:1) Increased Interest → Higher Demand → Stock Price IncreaseGreater investor interest typically translates to increased buying activity, pushing stock prices upward.2) Positive Sentiment → Improved Market Perception → Stock Price IncreaseThe dissemination of positive information on Wikipedia can enhance investor sentiment, boosting buying momentum.3) New Investor Entry → Higher Trading Volume → Stock Price Volatility & GrowthMore investors entering the market after researching stocks via Wikipedia can drive trading volume and amplify price movements.Lower EPS, Higher P/E RatiosCompanies with high Wikipedia page views generally exhibit lower earnings per share (EPS) and higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, which can be attributed to:Growth-Oriented Investments: Investors prioritize future growth potential over current earnings, assigning higher valuations to companies with strong potential.Reinvestment Strategies: High-growth firms often reinvest profits into R&D and capital expenditures rather than paying dividends, leading to lower EPS.Market Expectations: High Wikipedia page views indicate increased investor expectations, sustaining higher P/E ratios.Investment Strategy: Wikipedia Page Views as a Trading SignalA long-short investment strategy based on Wikipedia page view trends has demonstrated superior performance over the market benchmark. Specifically, a high-minus-low (H-M-L) portfolio—comparing stocks with high Wikipedia traffic against those with low traffic—produced statistically significant alpha that cannot be explained by traditional risk factors.Alpha Generation: Factor model regressions indicate that portfolios built using Wikipedia page view trends outperform standard benchmarks, highlighting the potential of this metric in investment decision-making.ConclusionChanges in Wikipedia page views can serve as a valuable predictor of stock performance. Investors can use this metric to diversify portfolios and potentially achieve higher returns.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
The Impact of Fundamentals on IPO Valuation (Sep 11, 2007)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
The Impact of Fundamentals on IPO Valuation (Sep 11, 2007)
This study analyzes 1,655 U.S. IPOs from 1986 to 2001 to examine the fundamental factors influencing IPO valuation. It investigates whether IPO valuation methods changed during the rise of the New Economy and which fundamental variables play a more significant role.Key Findings: IPO Valuation and Market Trends1. V-Shaped Pattern in Valuation and ReturnsFirms with negative earnings receive higher valuations than firms with low but positive earnings.This suggests that looking only at positive earnings can lead to misleading conclusions.The pattern is most prominent during booms and busts.2. Growth Potential of Loss-Making FirmsFirms with negative earnings often represent high-growth internet companies.Negative earnings are viewed as a signal of aggressive investment in future growth.3. Ownership Structure and IPO PricingInvestment bankers and first-day investors weigh post-IPO ownership and ownership changes differently when pricing IPOs.The impact of ownership structure on IPO valuation varies depending on the stakeholders involved.4. Fundamental Valuation ModelUses Abel & Eberly (2005) valuation model incorporating:Tangible assetsExpected future cash flowsGrowth options related to future technological upgradesDetailed Analysis1. Market Segmentation & IPO TrendsThe study examines three periods:1986–1990 (early IPO market)1997–March 2000 (boom phase)April 2000–2001 (bust phase)2. Valuation Patterns & ProfitabilityFirms with negative earnings often receive higher valuations than firms with low positive earnings.This phenomenon is strongly tied to venture capital-backed tech and internet firms.Negative earnings serve as a proxy for high growth potential.3. Ownership Structure & Investment DecisionsInvestment bankers and first-day investors assign different weights to post-IPO ownership changes.Insider ownership correlates positively with firm value.Investment banker reputation has a stronger impact on tech firm valuations.4. Role of Fundamentals in IPO PricingAbel & Eberly (2005) model guides the study’s valuation approach.Key factors influencing IPO valuations:Tangible assetsExpected future earningsGrowth options from technological advancementsConclusions & ImplicationsIPO valuation evolves over time, with 1990s tech booms reshaping valuation approaches.Growth options play a dominant role in tech IPO pricing, outweighing traditional financial metrics.Ownership changes influence valuation, but differently for different investors.This study suggests that IPO pricing is not purely driven by financials—market perception of growth potential and ownership structure significantly shapes valuation trends.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Evaluation of Stock Return Volatility and Return Analysis (23.02.03)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Evaluation of Stock Return Volatility and Return Analysis (23.02.03)
"Valuation and Returns on Stock Return Volatility"This paper provides deep insights into how fundamental analysis can be used to develop investment strategies in both stock and derivatives markets. Specifically, the study focuses on the complex relationships between individual firm characteristics, stock returns, volatility, and volatility risk premium (VRP).1. Research Background and MotivationLimitations of Existing Studies: Traditional stock valuation models focus on the relationship between stock prices and company fundamentals, treating derivative pricing separately. Meanwhile, options market research takes prices as given and primarily explains derivatives pricing through volatility.New Connection Attempt: This study develops an accounting-based valuation model that bridges these two research streams, demonstrating how fundamental analysis influences both stock returns and stock return volatility.Investor Uncertainty: Investors face two types of uncertainty when investing in stocks: return uncertainty (variance of returns) and uncertainty about return variance (variance of variance).Volatility Risk Premium (VRP): Investors dislike uncertainty in volatility itself, so they demand a premium to bear this risk. While VRP plays a crucial role in options markets, it has been underexplored in traditional valuation literature.2. Research ModelCore Assumption: The study presents a stock valuation model that accounts for firm earnings volatility, explaining the relationship between stock prices and price variance. It shows that stock risk premiums are related to volatility risk premiums.Fundamental-Based Approach: The model establishes that corporate fundamentals (earnings, earnings growth, etc.) are linked to stock risk premiums and, consequently, to VRP.Key Predictions:Expected stock returns have a positive quadratic relationship with stock return variance.Expected stock returns have a negative quadratic relationship with VRP.3. Data and MethodologyData Sources: The study utilizes multiple datasets, including CRSP (stock prices, dividends), I/B/E/S (earnings and earnings forecasts), and OptionMetrics (options data).Analytical Methods:Fama-MacBeth regressionsGARCH modelingPortfolio construction4. Key FindingsFundamentals and Return/Volatility Relationship:Expected returns, estimated using fundamental ratios (earnings-to-price ratio, expected earnings growth), exhibit a positive quadratic relationship with stock return variance and a negative quadratic relationship with VRP.Firms with higher expected returns tend to have higher return volatility and lower VRP.Risk Aversion Effect:VRP is generally negative, indicating that investors demand compensation for exposure to high-volatility assets.Options Trading Strategy:The study introduces an options selection strategy leveraging expected returns and volatility derived from the model.This strategy outperforms traditional volatility-based strategies.5. Practical ImplicationsUtilization in Options Markets: The study suggests the possibility of generating profits in options markets using fundamental analysis.Volatility Trading Strategies: Investors can enhance their volatility trading strategies by incorporating fundamental insights.Mitigating Information Asymmetry: Identifying overlooked fundamental information can uncover investment opportunities.6. ConclusionThis study explains the relationships between stock returns, volatility, and VRP using a fundamental-based model and introduces an options trading strategy leveraging these insights. The findings provide valuable guidance for both investors and researchers in utilizing fundamental information in derivatives markets.Summary:This paper provides evidence that corporate fundamentals influence not only stock returns and volatility but also volatility risk premiums.Fundamental analysis can be used to create innovative investment strategies in options markets.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
How Analysts Measure Fundamental and Uncertainty Risk (12.11.29)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
How Analysts Measure Fundamental and Uncertainty Risk (12.11.29)
"Can Analysts Assess Fundamental Risk and Valuation Uncertainty? An Empirical Analysis of Scenario-Based Value Estimates"This study empirically analyzes how analysts assess fundamental risk using scenario-based valuation reports. By examining the dispersion and asymmetry in valuation estimates across different scenarios (bullish, bearish, and base cases), the study investigates how these variations relate to future company performance.1. Scenario-Based Valuation Estimates:Analysts’ Perspective: Analysts not only present their forecasts on a company’s future value but also provide scenario-based valuations, outlining how the company's worth could fluctuate under different economic conditions (bullish, bearish).Data Utilization: The study utilizes scenario-based valuation estimates from Morgan Stanley analysts’ reports published between 2007 and 2010.New Metrics: The study introduces two new metrics—Spread (valuation range across scenarios) and Tilt (valuation asymmetry)—to measure analysts’ perceived risk and uncertainty.2. Key Findings:Spread and Firm Characteristics: The wider the valuation range (Spread), the more volatile and financially unstable the company tends to be. This suggests that analysts assign broader valuation spreads to companies with greater uncertainty about their future performance.Tilt and Firm Characteristics: Analysts’ valuation bias (Tilt) toward either bullish or bearish scenarios is linked to company size, beta, and book-to-market ratio. This indicates that analysts’ outlooks are asymmetrically influenced by specific risk factors.Spread and Long-Term Volatility: A wider Spread correlates with greater long-term stock return volatility, indicating that analysts' valuation estimates effectively capture fundamental risk.Tilt and Return Skewness: Analysts’ asymmetric valuation biases (Tilt) are related to the skewness of future stock returns, suggesting they incorporate expectations about return distribution into their assessments.3. Implications:Analysts’ Capability: Analysts can reasonably assess fundamental risks associated with companies.Investment Strategy: Scenario-based valuation reports provide valuable insights that investors can leverage when making decisions.Future Research: Further studies are needed to examine how analyst experience, effort, and behavioral biases influence valuation estimates.4. Conclusion:This study demonstrates that analysts' scenario-based valuation estimates reflect company risk and uncertainty, providing useful information for investors. However, subjective judgment and biases can also influence valuations, necessitating cautious interpretation.Summary:Analysts’ scenario-based valuation estimates incorporate fundamental risks and offer valuable investment insights.Scenario analysis provides meaningful insights even in information-scarce environments.Analysts highlight companies' risk exposure to potential economic shocks.Scenario-based valuation helps analyze higher moments of return distributions.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Valuation Multiples: Accuracy and Drivers (July 10, 2011)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Valuation Multiples: Accuracy and Drivers (July 10, 2011)
Key Insights:Valuation Multiple AccuracyFuture multiples are more accurate: Forward-looking multiples outperform historical and current multiples in valuation accuracy.Profitability-based multiples are superior: EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, and P/E provide better valuation accuracy than asset-based multiples.Enterprise value multiples (EV/IC) outperform equity multiples (P/BV, P/E): Evaluating a company based on total capital yields more precise valuations.Combining multiples enhances accuracy: Using both future and current multiples as well as profitability and asset-based multiples improves valuation reliability.Key Drivers of Valuation MultiplesGrowth expectations: Higher expected growth leads to higher multiples.Earnings stability: Companies with consistent earnings receive higher valuation multiples.Earnings quality: Transparent and sustainable earnings result in higher multiples.Asset utilization: Efficient asset management correlates with higher valuations.Financial leverage: Moderate debt levels enhance valuation multiples, but excessive leverage increases risk.Other ConsiderationsCompany size and liquidity play a minor role in determining multiples.Industry-specific approaches are necessary: No universal multiple applies to all industries.Peer group selection is critical: Comparable companies must share similar characteristics for meaningful valuation comparisons.Conclusions:Enterprise-based multiples (EV/IC) are more effective than equity-based multiples (P/BV, P/E).Future growth expectations should be incorporated into valuation models.Combining multiple valuation approaches improves accuracy.Industry-specific and qualitative factors (stability, asset utilization) significantly influence multiples.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Economic Fundamentals and Stock Market Valuation: A CAPE-Based Approach (May 30, 2023)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Economic Fundamentals and Stock Market Valuation: A CAPE-Based Approach (May 30, 2023)
Key Insights:CAPE as a Valuation ToolThe study develops and validates a fair-value model for stock market valuation using the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio.CAPE is positively correlated with economic growth and negatively correlated with real interest rates and economic volatility.Macroeconomic Drivers of CAPEInterest Rates: Higher real interest rates lead to lower CAPE levels.Economic Growth: Faster-growing economies tend to have higher CAPE ratios.Economic Volatility: Increased uncertainty (e.g., fluctuations in industrial production and inflation) suppresses CAPE.Market Overvaluation and Future ReturnsWhen CAPE deviates significantly from fair value, future stock returns tend to decline.Overvalued markets, as indicated by excessive CAPE levels, are more prone to corrections.Superior Predictive Power of Fair-Value-Adjusted CAPEModels using CAPE deviations from fair value outperform those using absolute CAPE levels.Incorporating macroeconomic variables improves valuation accuracy and return predictions.Policy ImplicationsMonetary Policy: Price stability contributes to stock market stability.Fundamental-Based Investing: Long-term stock valuations should account for macroeconomic fundamentals.Conclusions:CAPE is an effective tool for assessing stock market overheating.Adjusted CAPE models incorporating macroeconomic factors enhance market predictions.Interest rates, growth, and volatility are critical for understanding valuation trends.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Analysts' Estimates Tend to Be Conservative (Oct 14, 2024)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Analysts' Estimates Tend to Be Conservative (Oct 14, 2024)
"Valuation Fundamentals"Key Insights:The Role of Growth Expectations and Subjective Discount RatesTraditional valuation models emphasize cash flow projections, but subjective discount rates play a critical role in analysts' estimates.Analysts adjust discount rates based on risk, market conditions, and company-specific factors, influencing valuation outcomes.Contribution to valuation variance: Growth expectations (72%), discount rates (28%).Risk-Free Rates and Subjective BetaDiscount rate fluctuations are driven by risk-free rates and analysts' subjective beta adjustments.Analysts do not apply market interest rates indiscriminately but adjust them to reflect long-term economic conditions and company sustainability.Predictive Power of Subjective Discount RatesAnalysts' discount rate adjustments align with future returns, implying that these estimates provide useful market insights.This challenges the assumption of market efficiency, suggesting analysts' insights are valuable.Subjective Beta and Risk PremiumsThe Security Market Line (SML) exhibits a steeper slope, meaning analysts demand higher risk premiums than traditional CAPM estimates.Investors expect greater compensation for risk, reinforcing the importance of analyst judgment.Bayesian Updating in Forecast RevisionsAnalysts refine their valuations incrementally rather than reacting immediately to new information.This minimizes estimation errors and reduces unnecessary volatility in stock price targets.Tracking Long-Term Growth RatesAnalysts’ long-term growth projections align with real GDP growth, rather than inflation.Despite using nominal valuation models, analysts' forecasts emphasize real economic expansion.Conclusion:Analysts’ valuation methodologies incorporate both growth projections and subjective discount rates, with risk adjustments aligning more closely with CAPM assumptions. Their incremental approach to revising estimates reflects a preference for stability over market reactivity, reinforcing the idea that market efficiency is not absolute.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
How to Select Stocks in a Volatile Market (Mar 14, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
How to Select Stocks in a Volatile Market (Mar 14, 2025)
Market Behavior and Investor PsychologyInvestors tend to buy more as prices rise, even though traditional economic theory suggests the opposite.Price increases may reflect improving fundamentals or behavioral and technical factors driving momentum.Short squeezes, emotional excitement, noise trading, and window dressing can further amplify price movements.Conversely, falling stocks tend to fall further due to forced selling, ambiguity aversion, and herd behavior among bearish investors.Understanding Overreaction vs. FundamentalsStocks can move sharply up or down due to a mix of real economic fundamentals and market psychology.To determine if a stock’s movement is justified:Imagine knowing the company's true fundamentals five years from now—would it confirm current market expectations?If the answer is clear, investment decisions become easier.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
The Real Concern Isn't Market Concentration—It's Overvaluation (Feb 10, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
The Real Concern Isn't Market Concentration—It's Overvaluation (Feb 10, 2025)
Are Mega-Cap Stocks Becoming Too Dominant?Last week, the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 accounted for more than 37.5% of the index's total market value.Some analysts claim that the market has never been this concentrated.But history tells a different story.In fact, U.S. markets have seen even higher concentration levels in the past. The issue isn't just that a few stocks dominate—it's that their valuations may be overstretched.How worried should investors be?Younger investors have less to worry about.Unlike retirees, they have future labor income, which acts as a hedge against market downturns.Historical Market ConcentrationThe dominance of a few companies in the market is not new:In 1812, financial stocks (banks, insurance firms) made up 71% of the U.S. stock market.In 1900, railroad stocks accounted for 63% of total market value.The Pennsylvania Railroad alone made up 12% of the market, higher than Apple's 7% share today.Even lower concentration levels haven't always led to better returns:From 1965 to 1981, the top 10 stocks' share of U.S. market value dropped from 30% to 15%.Yet, market returns during this period were below long-term averages.Key takeaway:There's no "ideal" level of market concentration.Defining a clear threshold for when large-cap dominance becomes a problem is nearly impossible.The Real Risk: OvervaluationThe S&P 500 is now trading at 22x forward earnings, well above its 30-year average of 16.4x.Even after a brief pullback in tech stocks, the "Magnificent Seven" are trading at an average forward P/E of 43.3x.Higher Valuations + Rising Bond Yields = Increased RiskThe 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged to 4.4%, making equities relatively less attractive.Stocks are now more expensive relative to historical valuation benchmarks.Should Younger Investors Worry?A common concern from investors:"If I go all-in on stocks now, am I buying at the wrong time?"Experts—including William Bernstein, Edward McQuarrie, and Nobel Laureate William Sharpe—agree on two points:Stocks outperform bonds over the long run—but there are no guarantees.Younger investors have "human capital"—future earnings potential—which acts as a natural hedge.For younger investors:Even if stocks are overvalued, long-term earning potential provides a cushion against market downturns.Diversification into undervalued international stocks can further mitigate risk.For retirees or those near retirement:Human capital no longer acts as a hedge.TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) can protect against both stock market declines and inflation.ConclusionMarket concentration is not inherently dangerous—but overvaluation is.For young investors, the key is to stay invested, diversify globally, and accept short-term volatility as part of long-term growth.For retirees, shifting some assets into TIPS may help safeguard wealth.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Fail-Proof Investing: The Answer Lies in Guardrails (Nov 18, 2024)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Fail-Proof Investing: The Answer Lies in Guardrails (Nov 18, 2024)
Self-Control and Self-Awareness in InvestingPeople often fail to accurately assess their own actions, whether in daily life or investing. A study at an Italian restaurant revealed that one-third of diners couldn’t recall how much bread they had eaten, while 12% outright denied eating any. Additionally, those with average body weight underestimated their intake by 20%, while overweight individuals underestimated by 30–50%. This highlights a fundamental human limitation in objectively perceiving our own behavior.The same applies to investing.In bear markets, investors feel it's too early to buy and too late to sell.In bull markets, it feels too late to buy and too early to sell.Holding too much cash leaves investors paralyzed, unsure of when to invest.Large losses create confusion about when to cut losses.Holding investments for too long can lead to Enron or Lehman Brothers-like collapses.Why Investing Is DifficultNo one can predict the market with absolute certainty. Market tops and bottoms are impossible to time perfectly. If someone claims otherwise, they are either lucky or lying. So, what’s the solution?Investors Should Think Like Security GuardsWith more investment options than ever, filtering bad choices is crucial—just like a bouncer controlling entry at a club. Investors need to set clear criteria to eliminate distractions.Musician Jack White called this “freedom through restriction”. To maintain creativity, his band The White Stripes set strict limitations:No blues, no guitar solos, no slide guitar, no cover songs, and no bass.This forced creativity, leading to some of the best albums of the 2000s.The same principle applies to investing. Too many choices lead to confusion and wasted time. Defining clear investment rules and eliminating unnecessary decisions leads to better outcomes.Make Decisions in AdvanceMoney triggers fear, greed, and stress, clouding judgment. That’s why investment rules must be set in advance, ensuring decisions aren’t driven by emotions.Examples:What’s your plan if the market crashes?At what profit level will you sell a stock?What percentage of your portfolio should be in cash, stocks, and bonds?Focus on Process Over OutcomeSuccess in investing isn’t determined by short-term results but by following a consistent investment process.The market appears like a scoreboard, but short-term performance is misleading.Even the best investors make mistakes—nobody times the market perfectly.The key is to trust a reliable investment framework and stick to it.Set Up GuardrailsThe simplest guardrail in investing is asset allocation.If unsure when to invest cash, predefine stock, bond, and cash allocation targets.If unsure when to buy or sell, set minimum and maximum position sizes.Such rules reduce emotional decision-making and enable rational investing despite market volatility.Restrictions Create FreedomToday, a smartphone gives more communication power than a U.S. president had 25 years ago and more information than a president had 15 years ago. But more information isn’t always helpful—it increases the challenge of filtering out noise.The same is true for investing. Chasing every opportunity is counterproductive. Instead, define clear investment areas and strategies, and ignore distractions.Ultimately, investment success isn’t about market predictions—it’s about sticking to pre-established principles, avoiding emotional decisions, and maintaining a long-term perspective.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Future Investment Strategies for the AGI Era (Feb 8, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Future Investment Strategies for the AGI Era (Feb 8, 2025)
Three Key Strategies for the AGI/ASI EraOwn the Robots DirectlyInvesting in AI-driven companies is a valid strategy but may already be priced in by the market.High costs and uncertainties surrounding AGI development present significant risks.AI investment alone does not guarantee success, requiring diversification.Hedge Your Labor, Not Just Your PortfolioHuman skills resistant to AI replacement will gain value.Key areas include aesthetics, curation, empathy, caregiving, and technical expertise.Developing differentiated skills is essential in a shifting job market.Stay the Course but Increase SpeedIndex fund investments (S&P 500, etc.) remain reliable even in the AI era.Building more assets can serve as a hedge against AGI-driven economic shifts.Balancing wealth protection and growth is critical.Realistic Outlook on AGIMore Time Than ExpectedHigh costs and economic constraints will slow AGI adoption.AGI will not instantly disrupt all industries but will integrate gradually.Intelligence ≠ ExperienceEven superintelligent AI requires time to gain domain expertise.Immediate human replacement is unlikely—adoption will be incremental.New Technologies Create New JobsWhile past innovations displaced jobs, they also created new industries.AGI will enhance productivity and generate new career opportunities.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
The Shifting Global Order: Trump-Vance Warnings and the Future of Alliances (Feb 21, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
The Shifting Global Order: Trump-Vance Warnings and the Future of Alliances (Feb 21, 2025)
For 80 years, U.S. alliances have been the foundation of American foreign policy, trade, and cultural influence. U.S. security investments in allied nations have helped maintain peace in unstable regions.However, the Trump administration is actively working to dismantle the post-World War II order. This is not new—Trump has opposed the high cost of U.S. alliances since 1987.During his first term, his cabinet often blocked attempts to sever military and diplomatic ties with allies. But now, Trump has surrounded himself with officials prepared for radical change.At the Munich Security Conference, Vice President J.D. Vance made misleading statements suggesting that European democracies are not truly democratic. He indicated that the U.S. is no longer interested in discussing Europe’s security.Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent presented a two-page agreement to Ukrainian President Zelensky, demanding that Ukraine permanently hand over 50% of all economic value tied to its resources to the U.S.Key Developments & ReactionsEurope’s Contributions to Ukraine: Despite Trump’s false claims, European nations have contributed more than the U.S. to Ukraine’s military and economic survival. However, they are expected to be excluded from this deal.Ambiguity in U.S. Demands: The document does not clarify which American entities would benefit from this resource agreement.Trump’s False Statements on Ukraine:Ukraine did not start the war—Russia invaded and continues to attack Ukraine.Zelensky is not a dictator—Ukraine’s government operates under martial law due to ongoing war threats, but political discourse remains free.European Response:Seizing Russian Assets: European nations should seize $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s defense and reconstruction—a move that could deter Russia by signaling a prolonged war.Creating an Independent Defense Coalition: Given America’s unpredictability, Europe must build its own deterrence capabilities.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Warren Buffett’s 9 Golden Investment Lessons in 2025
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Warren Buffett’s 9 Golden Investment Lessons in 2025
Warren Buffett, Chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, reminded shareholders in his annual letter that his succession to Greg Abel is imminent. Buffett emphasized that Abel fully understands Berkshire’s core values, particularly the importance of honest communication with shareholders.Buffett also highlighted Berkshire’s massive tax contribution, revealing that the company paid $26.8 billion in corporate taxes last year, accounting for 5% of all U.S. corporate taxes. He expressed hope that the U.S. government would use these funds wisely to support those in need.Reflecting on Berkshire’s financial performance, Buffett noted that 53% of its 189 operating businesses saw earnings decline in 2024, yet the company outperformed expectations due to higher Treasury yields and strong investment income.Here are nine key investment and business principles from Buffett’s latest shareholder letter:1) One great decision can change everything.Major moves like GEICO acquisition and Charlie Munger’s partnership were pivotal in Berkshire’s success.2) Stocks outperform other assets.Buffett favors owning quality businesses over holding cash.3) Great businesses and talented people endure.Companies providing essential goods/services can withstand economic turmoil.4) Degrees don’t guarantee success.Buffett values practical ability over academic credentials in leadership.5) Reinvestment beats dividends.Berkshire prioritizes compounding growth over payouts.6) Buy great stocks at bargain prices.Finding undervalued, high-quality stocks is the key to long-term gains.7) Fix mistakes quickly.Acknowledging and correcting errors swiftly prevents greater losses.8) Beware of empty optimism.Honest assessment outweighs misleading corporate rhetoric.9) America must continue to prosper.Berkshire’s success stems from a thriving U.S. economy and responsible fiscal policy.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Analysis of 150 Years of U.S. Stock Market Crashes (Mar 7, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Analysis of 150 Years of U.S. Stock Market Crashes (Mar 7, 2025)
This month marks five years since the COVID-19 market crash. On March 9, 2020, U.S. stocks plunged nearly 8% in a single day. However, the market rebounded within just four months, making it the fastest recovery in 150 years.In contrast, the 2021-2022 downturn, triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war, inflation, and supply chain disruptions, took 18 months to recover—four times longer than the COVID crash.Key Lessons from Market CrashesPredicting recovery time is impossible.Panic-selling during crashes results in long-term losses.Markets always recover and reach new highs.How Often Do Market Crashes Occur?The frequency of crashes depends on historical scope and identification criteria. Paul Kaplan (Morningstar) compiled stock market data dating back to 1871, which highlights key collapses:The Great Depression (1929): A 79% loss, the worst in 150 years.The Lost Decade (2000-2013): The Dot-Com Bubble + Great Recession resulted in a 54% market decline over 12 years.Inflation, Vietnam, Watergate (1973-1974): A 51.9% decline fueled by OPEC oil embargo, war, and political instability.COVID-19 Crash (2020): Fastest recovery (4 months), smallest pain index.Russia-Ukraine War & Inflation (2021-2022): A 28.5% drop over 9 months.Measuring Market Pain: The Pain IndexKaplan’s Pain Index quantifies crash severity by considering depth and recovery time:The Great Depression (1929): 100% Pain Index (worst ever).Cuban Missile Crisis (1962): 22.8% decline but rapid recovery, making it 28.2x less painful than 1929.COVID-19 (2020): Least painful crash in 150 years, thanks to a rapid 4-month recovery.The Five Worst Market Crashes in 150 YearsWorld War I & Spanish Flu (1911-1918)Triggered by antitrust rulings, war, and pandemic.Loss: -51% (from $100 to $49.04).Great Depression (1929-1932)Stocks fell 79% and took 4+ years to recover.Post-Depression & WWII (1937-1945)Market briefly recovered in 1936, then fell 50% again due to policy shifts and WWII.1970s Stagflation (1973-1982)OPEC oil embargo, inflation, and Watergate caused a 51.9% decline.Recovery took 9+ years.The Lost Decade (2000-2013)Dot-Com Bust (2000-2002) and Great Recession (2008-2009) wiped out 54% of market value.Lessons on Managing Market VolatilityHistory proves markets always recover—but timing is unpredictable.The best strategy is a diversified long-term portfolio.Investors who stayed invested always saw long-term gains.A $100 investment in 1870 would be worth $3.1 million today.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Fama-French’s Cross-Sectional Analysis of Expected Stock Returns (Apr 30, 2012)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Fama-French’s Cross-Sectional Analysis of Expected Stock Returns (Apr 30, 2012)
This seminal paper challenged the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) in the early 1990s, reshaping modern financial economics. Fama and French empirically demonstrated that CAPM’s assumption of a linear relationship between beta (β) and returns does not hold in real-world data. Instead, they identified firm size (Size) and book-to-market equity (B/M) as more significant factors in explaining stock returns.1. CAPM’s LimitationsCAPM Assumption: Expected stock returns should be determined solely by market beta—higher beta implies higher returns.Empirical Evidence: Analyzing U.S. stock data (1963-1990), the study found little to no correlation between beta and stock returns. In some cases, beta even exhibited a negative relationship with returns.Challenges in Beta Measurement: Even after refining beta estimation methods (e.g., portfolio construction based on size and beta), the CAPM’s predictions remained unsupported.2. Discovery of Size and Value EffectsSize Effect: Small-cap stocks consistently outperformed large-cap stocks, contradicting CAPM’s risk-return assumption.Value Effect: Stocks with a high book-to-market ratio (B/M), or “value stocks,” generated higher returns than low B/M (“growth”) stocks.Empirical Evidence: Size and B/M strongly explained variations in stock returns, rendering beta’s role insignificant when included in the model.3. Implications for Asset Pricing ModelsDiminished Role of Beta: Once Size and B/M were considered, beta lost explanatory power in return predictions.Multi-Factor Model: Fama and French proposed a three-factor model (Market + Size + Value) to replace CAPM, which became the foundation for modern asset pricing models.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Can ChatGPT Improve Investment Performance from a Portfolio Management Perspective? (Mar 16, 2023)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Can ChatGPT Improve Investment Performance from a Portfolio Management Perspective? (Mar 16, 2023)
This study analyzes whether ChatGPT can enhance investment decision-making from a portfolio management standpoint. It evaluates the diversity of assets selected by ChatGPT and compares the results with benchmark portfolios. The findings indicate that ChatGPT’s asset selection demonstrates statistically significant improvements in diversity indices over random selection, leading to better-performing portfolios. Consequently, ChatGPT is identified as a potentially valuable tool for portfolio construction.Key Research MethodsAsset Selection: ChatGPT is tasked with selecting 2–4 assets from five categories: stocks, cryptocurrencies, commodities, currencies, and bonds.Diversity Index Calculation: The Simpson and Shannon indices measure the diversity of ChatGPT-selected assets, along with the average correlation among asset returns.Portfolio Construction: Based on ChatGPT’s asset selection, a tangency portfolio (optimized for maximum Sharpe ratio) and a minimum-risk portfolio are created.Performance Evaluation: ChatGPT-generated portfolios are compared to randomly selected portfolios using the Sharpe ratio, standard deviation, and other risk-adjusted return metrics.Simpson and Shannon Indices ExplainedSimpson Index: Measures how likely two randomly chosen assets belong to the same category. A lower Simpson index indicates higher diversity.Formula: D=1−∑pi2D = 1 - \sum p_i^2D=1−∑pi2​ (where pip_ipi​ represents the proportion of each asset class)Shannon Index: Measures entropy within the asset distribution, with higher values indicating greater diversity.Formula: H=−∑piln⁡(pi)H = -\sum p_i \ln(p_i)H=−∑pi​ln(pi​)Key FindingsChatGPT Enhances Portfolio DiversityChatGPT-selected assets exhibit a lower Simpson index and a higher Shannon index compared to random selection, indicating greater diversification.It does not simply select different asset classes but strategically diversifies assets with low correlations.Improved Risk-Adjusted ReturnsPortfolios constructed using ChatGPT’s selections outperform randomly generated portfolios in terms of Sharpe ratio and volatility reduction.Tangible Portfolio Optimization BenefitsChatGPT-selected portfolios provide effective risk-adjusted returns, making them useful for diversified investment strategies.ConclusionChatGPT demonstrates an ability to improve portfolio diversity and optimize asset selection beyond random chance. By strategically selecting assets that enhance diversification, ChatGPT-based portfolios deliver better investment performance.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
ChatGPT’s Impact on Stock Prices in the AI Investment Race (Sep 28, 2023)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
ChatGPT’s Impact on Stock Prices in the AI Investment Race (Sep 28, 2023)
A Trillion Dollars Race – How ChatGPT Affects Stock PricesThis study analyzes the short-term impact of ChatGPT mentions in companies' 8-K filings on U.S. stock prices. An event study approach is used to assess whether ChatGPT-related disclosures significantly influence stock returns, revealing that the IT sector experiences positive abnormal returns regardless of the report’s content. Additionally, stock price reactions are influenced by beta, market capitalization, price-to-earnings ratio, and company age, though the significance of these factors varies depending on whether the news is positive or negative.Key Research MethodsData Collection: 6-K and 8-K filings of U.S. publicly traded companies were collected, identifying reports mentioning "ChatGPT" during the first five months of 2023.Event Study Analysis: Stock price reactions were measured using an event study approach, with ChatGPT-related disclosure dates as event dates.Sector-Specific Analysis: Companies were categorized by sector, and the average Cumulative Average Abnormal Return (CAAR) for each sector was calculated.Regression Analysis: Regression models were used to identify factors influencing stock reactions, including beta, market capitalization, price-to-earnings ratio, and company age.Key FindingsLimited Impact of ChatGPT Mentions:Despite frequent mentions of ChatGPT in SEC filings during early 2023, only a small number of reports had a statistically significant impact on stock prices.The market selectively reacts to ChatGPT-related disclosures, depending on the specific context and relevance of the information rather than the mere mention of ChatGPT.Positive Market Reaction in the IT Sector:IT sector stocks tend to show positive abnormal returns following ChatGPT mentions, regardless of whether the report’s tone is positive or negative.This suggests that investors broadly expect generative AI technologies like ChatGPT to drive innovation and growth in the IT sector.Determinants of Stock Price Reactions:Beta: High-beta stocks, which are more sensitive to market fluctuations, exhibit stronger reactions to ChatGPT-related news.Market Capitalization: Smaller-cap stocks, which are typically more prone to information asymmetry, react more strongly to ChatGPT-related disclosures.Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: Low P/E stocks, often perceived as undervalued, tend to receive more positive reactions when ChatGPT-related news is released.Company Age: Younger firms, expected to adopt innovative technologies more aggressively, show stronger stock price responses to ChatGPT-related disclosures.Differences in Market Response to Positive vs. Negative News:The relative importance of these factors varies depending on whether the ChatGPT-related disclosure is positive or negative.Positive news sees company age playing a greater role, while negative news places more emphasis on financial stability.ConclusionThis study highlights how ChatGPT mentions in regulatory filings impact stock prices and identifies key factors shaping market reactions. The findings suggest that ChatGPT does not universally drive positive stock performance—rather, its effects depend on company characteristics and the nature of the news.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
ChatGPT Utilization for Textual and Sentiment Analysis of UK Annual Financial Statements and Its Impact on Investment Decisions (Feb 29, 2024)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
ChatGPT Utilization for Textual and Sentiment Analysis of UK Annual Financial Statements and Its Impact on Investment Decisions (Feb 29, 2024)
The Usefulness of ChatGPT for Textual Analysis of Annual ReportsThis study examines the use of ChatGPT to analyze the textual complexity and sentiment of UK annual reports and investigates its impact on investment decisions. The findings indicate that the sentiment and complexity scores generated by ChatGPT contain economically significant information, influencing both stock price reactions to annual report releases and future profitability. Additionally, these indicators capture investor belief heterogeneity, providing insights into how investors process the textual content of annual reports. Ultimately, the study suggests that investors can utilize AI models like ChatGPT to analyze textual characteristics of annual reports and enhance investment decisions.Key Research MethodsData: Annual report PDFs of FTSE100 companies from 2015 to 2022 were collected.ChatGPT-based Text Analysis: ChatGPT-4 was used to calculate sentiment and complexity scores for key sections of the reports (Chairman’s statement, performance highlights, corporate governance, and ESG disclosures).Index Construction: Sentiment and complexity scores were processed using principal component analysis to create a Sentiment Index and a Complexity Index.Regression Analysis: Sentiment and complexity indices were used as independent variables, while stock price reactions, future profitability, and investor belief heterogeneity were set as dependent variables.Robustness Checks: Fixed effects for firms and years were included, and standard errors were clustered to ensure the stability of the results.Key FindingsUseful Information: The sentiment and complexity indices generated by ChatGPT contain valuable information that influences stock price reactions and future profitability.Impact of Sentiment Index: A higher sentiment index is associated with positive stock price reactions and increased future ROA (Return on Assets).Impact of Complexity Index: A higher complexity index is linked to negative stock price reactions and lower future ROA growth.Investor Belief Heterogeneity: The sentiment index negatively correlates with stock turnover and return volatility, suggesting that positive sentiment reduces differences in investor opinions. Conversely, the complexity index positively correlates with turnover, indicating that higher complexity increases disagreement among investors.ConclusionThis study demonstrates that ChatGPT effectively analyzes textual characteristics of annual reports and extracts valuable information for investment decisions. Investors can leverage ChatGPT to assess the sentiment embedded in corporate disclosures and refine their investment strategies.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Finding Successful Technical Indicators in the Indian Stock Market (Feb 2, 2015)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Finding Successful Technical Indicators in the Indian Stock Market (Feb 2, 2015)
This study analyzes the Indian financial market using technical indicators, specifically applying moving averages, moving average crossover rules, and moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) to Nifty stocks to verify whether these indicators serve as effective tools for successful trading and profit generation. Key Research MethodsData: Nifty 50 index data from January 2014 to December 2014.Technical Indicators: Calculation of moving averages, moving average crossover rules, and MACD.Analysis: Evaluation of the ability of these indicators to predict Nifty stock prices and generate trading signals.Key Findings1. Moving AveragesPrice Prediction: Used to identify trends in stock prices or exchange rates by calculating average prices over a specific period, smoothing out fluctuations, and visually presenting trends.Buy/Sell Signals: A stock price rising above the moving average is interpreted as a buy signal, while a decline below the moving average is seen as a sell signal.Consistency: The study finds that a short-term moving average (3-day) is more consistent than a long-term moving average (10-day), suggesting that short-term trend-following strategies may be more effective than long-term ones.2. Moving Average Crossover RulesDefinition: A strategy using two moving averages (short-term and long-term) to generate trading signals.Buy/Sell Signals: A buy signal occurs when the short-term moving average crosses above the long-term moving average, and a sell signal occurs when it crosses below.Trend Reversal: The crossover point is interpreted as a signal for trend reversal.3. Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD)Definition: A momentum indicator used to measure trend strength, direction, and duration.Components: Comprises the MACD line, signal line, and histogram.MACD Line: The difference between the short-term and long-term exponential moving averages (EMA), indicating trend direction and strength.Signal Line: An EMA of the MACD line, used to smooth its movements and generate trading signals.Buy/Sell Signals: A buy signal is triggered when the MACD line crosses above the signal line, while a sell signal occurs when it crosses below.4. Overall AnalysisEffectiveness of Technical Indicators: These indicators can be useful for predicting Nifty stock prices and generating trading signals.Importance of Selecting the Optimal Period:Short-term moving averages effectively capture short-term trends but are susceptible to noise.Long-term moving averages are better at identifying long-term trends but may respond slowly to trend changes.MACD for Trend Identification: MACD proves to be an effective tool for determining market trend direction and strength.Study LimitationsSingle Market and Timeframe Analysis: The study is limited to Nifty 50 index data from January to December 2014, meaning results may differ in other markets or timeframes.Simplistic Model: The study only utilizes basic technical indicators (moving averages and MACD), suggesting that more complex models could yield improved results.ConclusionThis study concludes that basic technical indicators like moving averages can be valuable tools for analyzing the Indian stock market. However, careful selection of indicators and parameter optimization is necessary, and strategies should be adjusted according to market conditions.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Stock Portfolio Selection Based on Risk Appetite: Can ChatGPT Tailor Investments to Your Risk Tolerance? (Dec 17, 2024)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Stock Portfolio Selection Based on Risk Appetite: Can ChatGPT Tailor Investments to Your Risk Tolerance? (Dec 17, 2024)
A recent study explores ChatGPT’s ability to construct stock portfolios tailored to investors' risk preferences. The researchers asked ChatGPT to create both low-risk and high-risk portfolios using stocks from the S&P 500 and STOXX Europe 600 indices and compared their performance to benchmark indices. The results show that ChatGPT can effectively adjust portfolio risk and returns based on an investor’s risk appetite, but performance varies by market and GPT model version. Additionally, errors in stock selection and weight calculations highlight the need for human oversight.Stock Selection Using ChatGPT:ChatGPT was asked to select stocks from the S&P 500 and STOXX Europe 600 based on risk profiles.Weight Allocation:ChatGPT was instructed to assign stock weightings for a GPT-weighted portfolio and a equal-weighted portfolio.Portfolio Optimization:Applied cardinality constraints (limiting the number of assets) to keep portfolios practical for real-world execution.Performance Comparison:Benchmarked against S&P 500, STOXX Europe 600, Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and popular investment funds.1. ChatGPT Can Construct Risk-Adjusted PortfoliosLow-Risk Portfolio:Focused on defensive sectors such as consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities, reflecting a conservative investment approach that provides stability during market downturns.High-Risk Portfolio:Concentrated in growth-oriented sectors, including technology, consumer discretionary, and biotech, aligning with aggressive investment strategies that aim for higher returns but come with greater volatility.Risk Customization Capability:ChatGPT successfully adjusted portfolio risk levels based on investor preferences, demonstrating its potential as a personalized investment assistant.2. Market-Specific Performance VariabilityGPT-4o performed best for U.S. markets (S&P 500).GPT-4 showed higher returns in European markets (STOXX Europe 600).These results suggest that GPT models may be more effective in certain markets due to differences in training data and market dynamics.3. ChatGPT’s Errors & LimitationsIncorrect Stock Inclusion:ChatGPT mistakenly included stocks (e.g., BioNTech, Sunrun Inc., Square Inc.) that were not actually in the S&P 500.Weight Calculation Issues:Some portfolios had weighting errors, where the sum of weights did not equal 100% (e.g., totaling 98% instead of 100%).Takeaway:Investors must validate ChatGPT’s stock selections and calculations before relying on them.4. Portfolio Constraints for Practical ExecutionCardinality Constraints Applied:Limited the number of stocks to prevent over-diversification and excessive complexity.Helped create realistic, actionable investment strategies.The study confirms that ChatGPT can construct portfolios tailored to investors' risk profiles, adjusting for low-risk and high-risk preferences. However, GPT model performance varies by market, and errors in stock selection and weight calculations require human oversight. While ChatGPT can serve as a useful portfolio assistant, investors should not fully automate investment decisions without verifying AI-generated outputs.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
How to Nudge ChatGPT to Build an Investment Portfolio for Long-Term Success (May 31, 2023)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
How to Nudge ChatGPT to Build an Investment Portfolio for Long-Term Success (May 31, 2023)
This study explores the use of ChatGPT in constructing long-term investment portfolios, based on personal experiments and observations. The author tested ChatGPT’s ability to allocate assets and suggest ETFs and compared the results to benchmark portfolios. The findings indicate that while ChatGPT efficiently provides ETF tickers, it lacks analytical reasoning and customization for individual risk profiles. Thus, human oversight remains essential for optimal portfolio construction.1. ChatGPT Follows Instructions but Lacks Analytical ReasoningChatGPT executes user commands efficiently but does not analyze or think critically about portfolio construction.Human expertise is required to refine investment strategies and ensure appropriate asset allocation.2. ChatGPT Is Useful for ETF SelectionQuickly generates ETF tickers based on asset allocation requests.Saves time and effort in searching for relevant investment vehicles.Requires user verification to prevent overlapping exposure or misallocation.3. Diversification Is Key to Long-Term SuccessA well-structured portfolio should include:U.S. & international stocksBonds & fixed incomeEmerging marketsInflation-linked securitiesCommodities & alternative assetsChatGPT does not automatically optimize allocation, making customization essential.ChatGPT serves as a valuable tool for investment research, but it cannot replace professional financial expertise. Achieving long-term portfolio success requires strategic asset selection and diversification, which ChatGPT cannot fully automate. Investors must review, adjust, and tailor ChatGPT’s recommendations to fit their risk tolerance and investment objectives.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Optimal Trend Following Rules in Two-State Regime-Switching Models (Nov 6, 2023)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Optimal Trend Following Rules in Two-State Regime-Switching Models (Nov 6, 2023)
A recent study, Optimal Trend Following Rules in Two-State Regime-Switching Models, analyzes trend-following investment strategies and provides a theoretical foundation for identifying optimal trading rules. Unlike previous research, which primarily focused on empirical backtesting of various trading rules, this paper derives the optimal trend-following strategy using a regime-switching framework with two market states: bull and bear markets.Key findings include:In a Markov Switching Model (MSM) with fixed transition probabilities, the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) rule is the optimal trend-following strategy.In a semi-Markov Switching Model (ESMSM) where state durations influence transition probabilities, the optimal strategy resembles the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) rule.Empirical analysis confirms that the theoretically derived optimal rules outperform traditional 10-month Simple Moving Average (SMA) and 12-month momentum strategies in real-world data.MethodologyReturn Modeling: Uses a two-state regime-switching model to capture bull and bear market dynamics.Markov vs. Semi-Markov Models:Markov Model (MSM): Transition probabilities between states are fixed.Semi-Markov Model (ESMSM): Transition probabilities depend on how long the market has remained in a given state.Deriving the Optimal Trend-Following Rules: Theoretically derives the optimal trading strategy for each model using mathematical and numerical analysis.Empirical Testing: Applies the optimal trading rules to international stock market data, including the U.S. and 16 other countries, and compares their performance with existing trend-following strategies. Key Findings1. Optimal Trend-Following Strategies Depend on the Market ModelMarkov Model (MSM):The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) rule is optimal.EMA assigns exponentially decaying weights to past prices, allowing it to react efficiently to regime changes.Semi-Markov Model (ESMSM):The optimal rule resembles MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence).Like MACD, this rule incorporates both short-term momentum and long-term mean reversion, making it well-suited for markets where state duration affects trend strength.2. Empirical Analysis: U.S. Market PerformanceThe study analyzes U.S. market data (1875–2020) and evaluates the performance of:Theoretically derived optimal rules (EMA & MACD-like rules)10-month SMA12-month momentum strategyResults: The optimal rules consistently outperform traditional SMA and momentum-based strategies across different market regimes.3. Global Market PerformanceUsing out-of-sample testing on 16 international stock markets, the study finds that:Trend-following strategies outperform buy-and-hold in most markets.The optimal rules derived from theory often outperform traditional SMA and momentum rules.However, in some markets, SMA and momentum strategies perform better, suggesting market structure variations influence strategy effectiveness.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Investor Sentiment in the Gold and Gold Futures Market: Insights from a ChatGPT-Generated Sentiment Index (Jun 26, 2024)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Investor Sentiment in the Gold and Gold Futures Market: Insights from a ChatGPT-Generated Sentiment Index (Jun 26, 2024)
A recent study, Investor Sentiment in Gold and Gold Futures Market: Evidence from ChatGPT-Generated Sentiment Index, explores the use of ChatGPT to develop an investor sentiment index based on social media discussions about the gold market. This index is designed to capture investor sentiment in the gold futures market and assess its impact on price movements.The study’s findings indicate that positive sentiment towards gold significantly boosts gold futures returns, and the sentiment index can serve as a short-term predictive tool. Additionally, the research highlights that during market crises, sentiment plays a crucial role in reinforcing gold’s hedging function.Key Research MethodsData Collection: The study gathers post titles from the Gold Forum on Eastmoney Guba, a major Chinese stock market community, spanning from 2010 to 2022.Sentiment Scoring: ChatGPT API assigns a sentiment score to each post, ranging from -50 (highly negative) to 50 (highly positive).Influence Weighting: Each post’s influence is calculated based on views and comment counts.Daily Sentiment Index Construction: The study generates a daily gold sentiment index by multiplying each post’s sentiment score by its influence weight.Regression Analysis: The sentiment index is used as an independent variable to assess its correlation with gold futures returns.Crisis Period Analysis: The study examines the role of sentiment during four major crises—stock market crashes, the U.S.-China trade war, COVID-19, and the Russia-Ukraine war—to analyze gold’s function as a safe-haven asset.Key Findings1. Positive Gold Sentiment Drives ReturnsIncreased Returns: Strong positive investor sentiment, as identified by ChatGPT, is statistically linked to higher gold futures returns. When investors have an optimistic outlook on gold, buying pressure rises, leading to price increases.Statistical Significance: The study confirms that this relationship is not random, demonstrating a meaningful connection between market sentiment and gold futures performance.Market Trend Formation: Investor sentiment not only affects short-term returns but also contributes to shaping market trends.2. Short-Term Predictive Power of the Sentiment IndexPredictive Indicator: The gold sentiment index can serve as a leading indicator for future gold futures returns.Short-Term Effectiveness: While effective for short-term forecasts, the sentiment index’s predictive power weakens over longer time horizons, suggesting that it is best suited for short-term trading strategies.3. Enhanced Hedging Function During Market CrisesGold as a Safe Haven: During periods of economic and financial turmoil, investors tend to shift towards gold as a safe-haven asset, driving up demand and prices.Sentiment’s Role in Crises: The study finds that investor sentiment plays an even greater role during crises, influencing gold futures trading decisions.Strategic Implications: Accurately assessing market sentiment during times of uncertainty is critical for gold investors, and the ChatGPT-driven sentiment index provides valuable insights into investor behavior.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Formula Investing: Evaluating the Efficiency of Four Popular Strategies (1963–2022)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Formula Investing: Evaluating the Efficiency of Four Popular Strategies (1963–2022)
Study Period: 1963–2022, U.S. stock marketStrategies Analyzed: F-Score, Magic Formula, Acquirer’s Multiple, Conservative FormulaPerformance: All four strategies outperformed the market over the long run, but their effectiveness has declined since the 2000sFactor Exposures: Returns were primarily driven by value, profitability, and momentum factorsConcentrated Portfolios: A top 40-stock portfolio delivered higher returns but also exhibited greater volatilityAnalysis & InsightsLong-Term Outperformance, But Recent SlowdownWhile all four strategies generated excess returns historically, their performance has weakened in recent decades.The decline is likely due to increasing market efficiency and reduced arbitrage opportunities.Characteristics of Each FormulaF-Score: Effective in selecting financially sound value stocks but struggled as the value premium shrank.Magic Formula: Combined profitability and return on capital, achieving strong historical performance but with a recent slowdown.Acquirer’s Multiple: Focused on enterprise value to identify undervalued companies, offering significant value exposure.Conservative Formula: Emphasized low volatility, momentum, and net payout yield, making it attractive for stability-focused investors.Risk-Adjusted ReturnsMost strategies produced positive CAPM alpha, though risk-adjusted performance varied.The Conservative Formula demonstrated superior drawdown management, making it an effective risk-mitigation tool.Concentrated vs. Diversified PortfoliosA top 40-stock concentrated portfolio outperformed more diversified approaches but came with increased volatility.Investors should align their risk tolerance with the appropriate formula-based strategy.No Universal WinnerNo single strategy consistently outperformed across all evaluation metrics.Investors should select strategies based on their specific financial goals and investment style.ConclusionFormula investing remains a viable method for achieving excess returns, but recent market efficiency gains have made it harder to maintain an edge. Investors should carefully assess their investment objectives and risk tolerance before selecting a formula-based strategy.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
The Crack Cocaine of the Stock Market (Dec 26, 2024)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
The Crack Cocaine of the Stock Market (Dec 26, 2024)
This report highlights the growing addiction to high-risk stock market trading, particularly options and cryptocurrency, likening it to traditional gambling. As financial markets become more accessible through apps like Robinhood and Webull, an increasing number of individuals are experiencing severe financial and psychological consequences.1. Trading Addiction on the RiseGambling addiction groups are now seeing members addicted to stock and crypto trading.Pandemic-era retail trading boom introduced many to risky investments like meme stocks and options.Trading apps gamify investing, making speculation as easy as ordering food online.2. Options Trading: The Most Addictive FormExtreme volatility allows for massive gains or total losses within minutes.Retail traders are now betting on intraday price movements, similar to sports betting.A surge in same-day expiration (0DTE) options trading is amplifying risks.3. The Psychological TollSevere losses lead to depression, anxiety, and even suicidal thoughts.Treatment centers report a surge in stock trading addiction cases since 2020.Withdrawal symptoms mimic traditional gambling addiction, with patients experiencing compulsive urges and restlessness.4. Financial Apps Enable AddictionNo consumer protections similar to gambling regulations exist for stock trading apps.Gambling prevention software like Gamban is now blocking trading platforms like Robinhood.Calls for regulatory oversight to introduce safeguards for compulsive traders are growing.The line between investing and gambling has blurred, fueled by easy-access trading apps and high-risk derivatives. Without intervention, the rise of trading addiction could have long-term economic and social consequences. Stronger financial literacy, regulation, and mental health support are needed to prevent further harm.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
"A New Paradigm in Active Equity" (May 31, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
"A New Paradigm in Active Equity" (May 31, 2025)
This report, published by AQR Capital Management, explores how market concentration and technological advancements are reshaping active equity investing. It examines the challenges and opportunities for active managers in a highly concentrated market and presents systematic investing as a competitive edge.1. Understanding Market ConcentrationS&P 500 is more concentrated than ever: The top 10 companies now hold a significantly larger share of the index.Concentration does not always mean higher risk: While high concentration raises concerns, AQR’s analysis shows that volatility differences between capitalization-weighted and equal-weighted indices are minimal.2. Challenges & Opportunities in a Concentrated MarketActive managers struggle to differentiate performance:In a concentrated market, large-cap stocks dominate returns, making it harder for long-only managers to underweight them.Small-cap exposure becomes diluted, limiting opportunities to generate alpha.Systematic investing helps mitigate risks:Diversification reduces exposure to single-stock risks.Sector neutrality avoids overconcentration in industries like tech.Beyond price momentum: AQR integrates fundamental factors and alternative data for more robust signals.3. Leveraging AI & Machine Learning for AlphaBayesian Framework: Combines economic theory and data-driven models to optimize signal weighting dynamically.Adaptive signal weighting:New signals are continuously adjusted based on their relevance over time.Machine learning & NLP help detect inefficiencies beyond traditional quantitative models.The combination of systematic investing, AI-driven signal innovation, and dynamic weighting strategies is essential for active managers navigating today’s concentrated market. AQR's approach leverages advanced technology and statistical rigor to maintain a competitive edge in equity investing.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 자민
·
4 months ago
0
0
Moody’s Maintains Negative Outlook on Korean Banks (Mar 14, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 자민
·
4 months ago
0
0
Moody’s Maintains Negative Outlook on Korean Banks (Mar 14, 2025)
Global credit rating agency Moody’s has maintained a negative outlook on South Korean banks, citing deteriorating operating conditions, asset quality, and profitability over the next 12 to 18 months. The agency warns that weak consumer spending, a sluggish construction sector, and slowing export growth are driving concerns over rising loan delinquency rates and worsening asset quality.Moody’s forecasts South Korea’s real GDP growth to decline to 1.6% in 2025, significantly below the long-term average of 2.5%. The report also highlights political uncertainty, weak job growth, and a struggling real estate market, which are expected to dampen consumer sentiment and weigh on overall economic performance.Key Risks for Korean BanksAsset Quality: Delinquency rates in small business loans and unsecured personal loans are expected to remain around 0.5%, posing a broader financial sector risk. Despite regulatory measures such as stress capital buffers and Liquidity Coverage Ratios (LCRs), Korean banks still lag behind their global peers in terms of capital strength.Profitability: Return on Average Assets (ROAA) is projected to decline to 0.5-0.6%, while Net Interest Margin (NIM) is expected to shrink from 1.6% to 1.5%. Though loan-loss provisions remain stable, weak profitability and deteriorating financial health of non-banking affiliates within financial groups pose additional risks.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
Event
user
셀스마트 판다
·
3 months ago
1
0
Should I Sell Today? What Today’s Signals Are Telling Us
Sell
Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
3 months ago
1
0
Should I Sell Today? What Today’s Signals Are Telling Us
A SELL signal has been triggered by the Market Strength Indicator (MSI)The MSI evaluates the profit/loss distribution among investors. When a majority are in profit, it signals potential market recovery (BUY). Conversely, when most are incurring losses, it reflects a weakening market and triggers a SELL signal.A SELL signal has been triggered by the Crash Indicator (CI)The CI identifies steep short-term declines relative to the 6-month average. A sharp drop in weekly returns is interpreted as a crash warning, signaling elevated downside risk.A SELL signal has been triggered by the Time Varying Parameter (TVP)TVP utilizes a Bayesian time-series framework that integrates market, macroeconomic, and sentiment data to forecast price direction. The current model output indicates a structural downtrend.A SELL signal has been triggered by the Volatility Index (VIX)The VIX reflects investor sentiment through market volatility. A sudden spike signals fear-driven selling pressure. Current readings suggest a risk-off environment with heightened uncertainty.A SELL signal has been triggered by the Gold-Silver RatioThis signal tracks investor risk preference by comparing gold and silver prices. A rising ratio indicates increased demand for safe-haven assets, reflecting growing market anxiety.A SELL signal has been triggered by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII)Based on weekly retail investor surveys, a notable rise in bearish sentiment has activated a sell signal, suggesting weakening confidence in equity markets.A BUY signal has been triggered by the Real Rate InversionThis signal detects a yield curve inversion in real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates, where 1-year real yields exceed 10-year real yields. Such inversions often precede recessions and have historically marked market bottoms.A BUY signal has been triggered by the Fear & Greed IndexThis composite indicator captures extremes in market sentiment. Current readings indicate a fear-dominated environment, typically associated with short-term buying opportunities from a contrarian perspective.
article
Sell
Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Stock Market Risk During the Financial Crisis: How the 2007 Crisis Reshaped Market Volatility (Mar 6, 2023)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Stock Market Risk During the Financial Crisis: How the 2007 Crisis Reshaped Market Volatility (Mar 6, 2023)
The 2007 financial crisis significantly altered stock market risk, particularly across the industrial, utility, and banking sectors. This study examines how market volatility and sector composition shifted during and after the crisis, using U.S. and G12 stock market data from 1996 to 2014. It finds that sector-specific risk (measured by beta values) increased in industrials, remained stable or rose in utilities, and was closely linked to banking sector distress. Additionally, countries where the banking sector had higher pre-crisis risk levels experienced greater industrial sector volatility during the crisis.MethodologyData: U.S. and G12 stock market indices (Industrials, Utilities, Banks) from 1996–2014.Market Risk Model: Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) was used to measure sector risk.Crisis Impact Measurement: Introduced a dummy variable for the financial crisis to assess beta changes.Cross-Country Comparison: Evaluated differences in sector risk based on each country's crisis severity.Robustness Check: Used additional macroeconomic controls to validate results.Key Findings1. Industrials Became Riskier Post-CrisisBeta Values Increased:Industrials exhibited higher beta values during the financial crisis, indicating greater sensitivity to market volatility.This suggests that investors saw industrial stocks as more vulnerable in times of financial distress.Composition Effect:The increased beta values were not solely due to fundamental changes in industrials.Rather, the collapse of banking stocks shifted overall market composition, increasing industrials’ relative market weight and risk exposure.Funding Challenges:Higher sector risk discouraged investment, making it harder for industrial firms to secure capital.2. Banking Sector Contagion EffectPre-Crisis Beta as a Predictor:Countries where banks had higher pre-crisis beta values experienced greater industrial sector volatility during the crisis.Financial Contagion:The findings support a contagion effect, where banking distress spilled over into the industrial sector, increasing its market risk.This suggests that financial sector instability can significantly disrupt the broader economy.3. Mixed Impact on UtilitiesSafe-Haven Status:Utilities are typically viewed as low-risk, defensive assets during crises.However, beta changes varied by country, with some seeing higher risk rather than the expected stability.Market Structure Influence:In some cases, utilities’ beta values rose due to market-wide shifts rather than intrinsic sector weakness.Majority Trend:While most markets saw utilities remain stable, some experienced increased risk exposure, challenging the assumption that utilities always act as safe havens.4. Limitations in the Data & ModelCAPM’s Simplicity:While CAPM is widely used, it does not account for all risk factors, limiting its explanatory power.Country-Specific Crisis Timing:The crisis did not begin at the same time in every country, making exact comparisons difficult.Sample Constraints:Using only G12 data may limit broader applicability to other global markets.The 2007 financial crisis fundamentally altered sector risk, particularly in industrials, banks, and utilities. Industrial sector risk increased due to shifts in market composition and banking contagion effects, while utilities showed a mix of stable and rising risk levels depending on country-specific factors. The findings emphasize that banking crises do not remain isolated but spill over into other sectors, reshaping stock market risk across industries.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
Economy & Strategy
user
박재훈투영인
·
1 month ago
0
0
Wall Street Rebounds, but Earnings Pressure Mounts to Justify Elevated Valuations (May 20, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
1 month ago
0
0
Wall Street Rebounds, but Earnings Pressure Mounts to Justify Elevated Valuations (May 20, 2025)
Market CommentaryThe equity rally that followed the temporary easing of U.S.-China tariffs may be losing steam, as investors grow wary of whether current valuations can be sustained.Adam Parker, founder of Trivariate Research, noted in a recent client memo, “The risk-reward in the S&P 500 isn’t especially compelling,” and flagged concerns over unstable earnings visibility.He emphasized that while the median year-over-year Q3 earnings growth rate over the past 20 years is 4.7%, current projections for Q3 2025 are at 7%. These expectations come despite tougher comps and follow just six months after the imposition of major tariffs.“Does this all really add up? We don’t think so,” Parker said.FactSet data shows the S&P 500 is trading at a forward P/E of 21.6—roughly the same as late 2024, before tariffs were reintroduced.Anthony Saglimbene, Chief Market Strategist at Ameriprise, said in a note to clients that “investors have rapidly shifted from a cautious stance to a more optimistic one,” closing much of the opportunity gap that had existed in early April.Economic OutlookDespite mounting concerns, the U.S. economy has consistently outperformed post-pandemic expectations.Michael Grant, Co-CIO at Calamos Investments, told CNBC he believes economic pessimism is overstated and that a recession this year remains unlikely.“The market is interpreting the current tariff approach as part of a broader economic stimulus effort,” he said.Corporate Messaging Signals CautionYet optimism in financial markets contrasts with the tone from corporate America.According to FactSet, from March 15 to May 15, 381 S&P 500 companies referenced “uncertainty” during their Q1 earnings calls. That figure is well above the 5-year average of 224 and the 10-year average of 179. It's also more than double the number seen last quarter (187), and second only to Q1 2020 (393) in the past decade.In total, 84% of the 451 earnings calls held during that period included the term “uncertainty.”Sector breakdown:The industrials (69) and financials (68) sectors had the highest number of companies citing uncertainty.On a percentage basis, financials (96%), real estate (93%), and industrials (92%) led the field.Bottom LineThese signals reflect a deepening sense of caution among executives in response to trade policy shifts and broader macro risks. For current valuations to hold, companies will need to deliver earnings that decisively beat expectations and help restore confidence in the growth narrative.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
2 months ago
0
0
"Interest Rates at 14%"—Korean Retail Investors Pivot from U.S. to Brazilian Bonds, Reigniting Emerging Market Rally?
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
2 months ago
0
0
"Interest Rates at 14%"—Korean Retail Investors Pivot from U.S. to Brazilian Bonds, Reigniting Emerging Market Rally?
Brazilian government bonds are emerging as a favored destination for Korean retail investors seeking high-yield opportunities, supported by commodity tailwinds. In 2025 alone, net purchases of Brazilian bonds via Korea Securities Depository reached $3.29 billion, up 53% year-over-year. Meanwhile, Brazilian bond funds delivered the highest return among overseas funds, returning 12.95% over the past 3 months.This surge is primarily driven by Brazil’s high interest rate environment. The country’s central bank raised its benchmark rate to 14.25% in response to inflationary pressures, pushing yields on 10-year bonds to the mid-14% range—offering the potential for double-digit returns even without currency gains. Market expectations are now shifting toward rate cuts, adding further momentum to bond inflows.Geopolitical developments are also tilting in Brazil’s favor. The resurgence of U.S.-China trade tensions is raising hopes that Brazil, a major exporter of soybeans, iron ore, and crude oil, will benefit as China seeks alternative trading partners. This mirrors dynamics observed during the first round of trade conflicts, when China ramped up imports from Brazil in response to U.S. tariffs.Currency strength is another tailwind. The Brazilian real has appreciated roughly 10% against the dollar year-to-date, providing a boost to FX-adjusted returns for foreign investors.However, investors should remain mindful of the risks. Brazil’s Ba1 credit rating places it in speculative-grade territory. Structural vulnerabilities such as currency instability and sovereign risk remain present and must be factored into any investment decision.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
2 months ago
0
0
Markets Have Rebounded to Near Starting Levels, But Uncertainty Remains (Apr 26, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
2 months ago
0
0
Markets Have Rebounded to Near Starting Levels, But Uncertainty Remains (Apr 26, 2025)
Back to Square One — But Doubts PersistApril has shaped up to be one of the most volatile months in market history.Now, as we approach the final days of the month, equity markets have almost fully returned to where they stood at the end of March.Whether the S&P 500 can build enough momentum to break through the 5,500 resistance level remains to be seen.However, the past month has largely been a journey back to the starting line.Similarly, the U.S. Treasury market experienced significant turbulence.Despite widespread fears of mass bond outflows, the 10-year yield is back to its late-March levels.While stocks and bonds made a lot of noise with little real movement, the dollar continued to slide.After peaking in early January, the U.S. Dollar Index fell around 5% by late March.Following the "Day of Liberation," the decline accelerated — the index dropped another 5%, hitting its 52-week low.Interestingly, this dollar weakness seems to align with the administration’s goals.Stephen Miran, Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), has been an outspoken supporter of a weaker dollar to help narrow the trade deficit and boost the competitiveness of American exports.In his 41-page essay, "A User's Guide to Reconstructing the Global Trade System," Miran outlines how to address economic imbalances stemming from the dollar’s overvaluation as a global reserve currency.Miran advocates for tariffs as one of several tools to aid in the restructuring of global trade.However, he emphasizes that success hinges on execution, concluding:"The Trump administration could reconstruct the global trade and financial system to favor American interests, but the path is narrow and will require careful planning, precise execution, and measures to minimize negative side effects."In reality, the sequence of events following the "Day of Liberation" might have been part of a broader plan —but so far, nothing about the implementation has seemed particularly careful or precise.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
2 months ago
1
0
Leaving the IMF Would Be an Economic, Financial, and Political Mistake for the U.S.
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
2 months ago
1
0
Leaving the IMF Would Be an Economic, Financial, and Political Mistake for the U.S.
What would happen if the United States withdrew from the International Monetary Fund (IMF)?Experts warn that such a move would severely damage America's global prestige and weaken its privileged role in international finance.Former President Donald Trump previously pulled the U.S. out of the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organization (WHO). Now, he is reportedly targeting the IMF. The Project 2025 policy blueprint, published by the Heritage Foundation, proposes that a future Trump administration should withdraw from the IMF, claiming that the institution supports policies contrary to America's traditional values of free markets and limited government.However, leaving the IMF would almost certainly amount to a self-inflicted wound for the United States.By withdrawing, the U.S. would lose all influence over IMF policies and operations. More critically, it would undermine the global standing of the U.S. dollar.Currently, most IMF operations are conducted in U.S. dollars, and borrowers predominantly request and repay funds in dollars.If the U.S. exits, other countries would assume control of dollar-related operations, pushing the dollar out of IMF transactions.International demand for dollars has already declined by 5.6% over the past four years. A U.S. withdrawal would likely accelerate that trend even further.Although the IMF operates under a multi-currency system, the U.S. dollar remains the dominant currency, comprising 43% of the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket.If the U.S. were to leave, the dollar would have to be removed from the SDR basket, since only currencies from member countries can be included.Relinquishing leadership at the IMF would open the door for China and Europe to expand their influence.China could even push to relocate the IMF headquarters to Asia, marking a symbolic and strategic shift away from U.S. leadership in global finance.Beyond losing a critical channel for international financial assistance, the U.S. would forfeit its ability to influence the very IMF policies it finds problematic.The biggest risk: The dollar could lose its status as the world’s premier reserve currency.Even Trump's former economic adviser, Stephen Moore, emphasized the importance of preserving the dollar’s reserve status. Yet an IMF withdrawal could directly undermine that goal.Leaving the IMF would trigger a realignment where currencies from China, Europe, and smaller nations replace the dollar within the international financial system.U.S. financial institutions would also face reduced preferential access to dollar liquidity through the Federal Reserve, weakening America's leverage globally.This would not simply be a diplomatic misstep.It would represent a rapid erosion of U.S. financial dominance and a crippling blow to the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions as a strategic tool.In short, quitting the IMF would be an economic, financial, and political disaster for the United States.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
2 months ago
0
0
Trump vs. Powell: A Test of Fed Independence
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
2 months ago
0
0
Trump vs. Powell: A Test of Fed Independence
Former President Donald Trump has escalated his confrontation with the Federal Reserve, pressing for aggressive interest rate cuts and even hinting at removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell. However, legal experts widely agree that a president’s authority to dismiss a sitting Fed Chair mid-term is legally ambiguous and would likely trigger a prolonged Supreme Court battle.In his second term, Trump is actively seeking to reshape the Fed, aiming to install loyalists and assert greater influence over U.S. monetary policy. In contrast, Powell remains cautious, prioritizing inflation risks over immediate economic stimulus, despite mounting concerns over a slowdown triggered by escalating trade tensions.This standoff puts the credibility and independence of U.S. monetary policy to a historic test. Although the 90-day suspension of new tariffs on April 9 provided temporary relief to markets, fundamental frictions between the White House and the Fed remain unresolved.Adding to the tensions, Trump recently declared that Powell’s "term needs to end soon," signaling a more aggressive stance toward reshaping the central bank’s leadership structure.Meanwhile, inflation has already surpassed the Fed's 2% target, and the risk of further price increases due to the trade war complicates the Fed's path forward. Cutting rates now risks fueling inflation, while maintaining current rates could deepen an economic recession, placing the Fed in a precarious policy trap.In Congress, skepticism is growing. Representative Patrick McHenry warned that "any attempt to remove Powell would only inject further instability into an already fragile environment," while Representative Frank Lucas emphasized that Fed independence was established as a foundational principle by Congress.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
3 months ago
1
0
Fed Policy Adds to Market Turmoil as Wall Street Sells Off (Apr 17, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
3 months ago
1
0
Fed Policy Adds to Market Turmoil as Wall Street Sells Off (Apr 17, 2025)
Wall Street suffered another broad sell-off on Wednesday as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that trade tensions could stoke inflation, suggesting that the Fed would not move quickly to cut rates.The S&P 500 briefly fell as much as 3.3% before closing down 2.2%, while the Nasdaq 100 slid 3%. Selling pressure was widespread, with around 90% of S&P 500 constituents declining. Losses deepened following Powell’s remarks.Semiconductor stocks were hit hardest after the Trump administration moved to block chip exports to China. Nvidia and AMD both warned of significant revenue hits, with Nvidia anticipating a $5.5 billion charge and AMD expecting up to $800 million. Meanwhile, ASML missed earnings expectations, citing uncertainty from the new tariff landscape. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed down 4.1%.During his speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell stressed that the Fed must prevent tariffs from causing persistent inflation and warned of sustained market volatility ahead. He reiterated that without price stability, the U.S. cannot achieve a strong labor market over the long term.Adding to the bearish mood, the WTO slashed its 2025 global trade growth forecast to -0.2%, citing U.S. tariff escalation and mounting global uncertainty.Bloomberg Intelligence noted that chipmakers are now leading the broader tech selloff, while Tesla shares slumped 4.9% after reporting weaker new EV registrations in California, despite a rush of purchases ahead of new tariffs.The S&P 500 entered a phase of relative stabilization after six consecutive sessions of 4% swings—the longest streak of extreme volatility since the March 2020 pandemic selloff.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 자민
·
3 months ago
1
0
China Accelerates Energy Ties Beyond the U.S., Turns to Canada (Apr 17, 2025)
Sell
Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 자민
·
3 months ago
1
0
China Accelerates Energy Ties Beyond the U.S., Turns to Canada (Apr 17, 2025)
China has slashed crude oil imports from the U.S. by nearly 90% while simultaneously boosting imports from Canada to record levels, according to Vortexa data. In March alone, China imported 7.3 million barrels of oil from British Columbia ports, marking the highest monthly volume on record.This shift is largely seen as a response to escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and the Trump administration’s aggressive tariff policies. The completion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion (TMX) has improved access to Canada's western oil sands, enabling China to diversify its energy supply lines away from the U.S. Notably, Chinese imports of U.S. crude have plummeted from a peak of 29 million barrels per month in June 2024 to just 3 million barrels.Beyond simple substitution, China appears to be strategically broadening its economic ties with non-U.S. energy partners, reducing reliance on traditional suppliers like Russia and the Middle East. Canadian heavy crude offers a cost-effective alternative to Middle Eastern oil, making it an attractive option for Asia's advanced refining infrastructure. This evolving trade pattern could significantly reshape the global energy landscape and diminish America's influence over global energy flows.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Sell
Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
3 months ago
0
0
정크본드 스프레드가 확대되었다 ( 25. 04. 17)
Sell
Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
3 months ago
0
0
정크본드 스프레드가 확대되었다 ( 25. 04. 17)
업로드 한 이미지는 Apollo의 차트 전문가인 Torsten Sløk이 제공한 흥미로운 내용이다. 'off-the-run' 채권과 더 유동적인 투자 등급 회사채의 매수 호가와 매도 호가 간의 스프레드를 보여준다.우리는 신용 시장이 관세 관련 혼란에 뒤늦게 반응하고 있다는 것을 알고 있었다. MainFT가 오늘 보도했듯이, 정크 본드 시장은 완전히 얼어붙었다. 그러나 'off-the-run' 투자 등급 채권의 유동성이 2020년 3월만큼 나쁘다는 것은 꽤 놀라운 일이다.업계 용어에 익숙하지 않은 사람들을 위해 설명하자면, "off-the-run"은 오래되고 묵은 채권을 부르는 말이다. 채권은 일반적으로 새로 발행되었을 때 가장 활발하게 거래되지만, 시간이 지남에 따라 연금 계획이나 보험사와 같은 장기 포트폴리오에 편입되는 경향이 있다.이는 항상 유동성이 낮다는 것을 의미하며, 은행은 더 불리한 가격을 제시한다. 따라서 새로 발행된 IBM 채권 1억 달러를 1억 5만 달러에 사거나 9995만 달러에 팔 수 있지만, 오래되고 묵은 채권을 거래해야 하는 경우 가격은 1억 100만 달러 또는 9990만 달러와 같을 수 있다.위 차트에서 Apollo는 액면가가 10억 달러 이상이고 지난 1년 동안 발행된 회사채를 유동적인 회사채로 분류한 반면, 'off-the-run' 채권은 2년 이상 전에 발행되었고 발행액이 9억 달러 미만인 채권으로 정의했다 (이는 투자 등급 회사채 시장의 약 절반을 차지한다).하지만 몇 가지 의문점이 든다. 우선, 최근 뉴스 흐름이 아무리 나빴다고 해도 코로나19만큼 나쁘지는 않다. 그런데 유동적인 채권의 매수 호가-매도 호가 스프레드는 왜 조금밖에 확대되지 않았고, 2023년 은행 위기 최고조 때보다 타이트하게 유지되고 있는 것일까? Sløk은 다음과 같이 답한다.유동성이 높은 채권과 낮은 채권 간의 격차는 특히 주목할 만하다. 2020년에는 매수 호가-매도 호가 스프레드가 시장 전체에서 확대되었다. 그러나 이번에는 'off-the-run' 채권의 거래 비용이 훨씬 더 크게 증가했다. 이는 공개 IG 시장에서 유동성 격차가 커지고 있음을 강조한다. 'On-the-run' 채권의 유동성은 개선되었지만, 'off-the-run' 채권은 사실상 거래가 불가능하고 실질적으로 매수 후 보유 투자 상품이 되었다.하지만 왜 그럴까? 유동적인 채권의 호가는 왜 'off-the-run' 채권에 비해 놀라울 정도로 타이트하게 유지되는 것일까? 2023년에는 실제로 더 크게 벌어졌었다. 신용 거래량이 새로운 기록을 세운 이유는 알겠지만, 모든 사람이 'off-the-run' 채권을 처분하려고 했고 결국 "거래 불가능"하게 만든 것일까? Sløk의 말처럼 말이다.[Compliance Note]• 셀스마트의 모든 게시글은 참고자료입니다. 최종 투자 결정은 신중한 판단과 개인의 책임 하에 이루어져야함을 알려드립니다.• 게시글의 내용은 부정확할 수 있으며, 매매에 따른 수익과 손실은 거래 당사자의 책임입니다.• 코어16은 본 글에서 소개하는 종목들에 대해 보유 중일 수 있으며, 언제든 매수 또는 매도할 수 있습니다.
article
Sell
Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
3 months ago
1
0
Lessons from the Tariff Tantrum: What the Market Just Told the White House (Apr 11, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
3 months ago
1
0
Lessons from the Tariff Tantrum: What the Market Just Told the White House (Apr 11, 2025)
The past week offered a sobering reminder: markets still hold veto power.Soaring bond yields on Tuesday night triggered a rare wave of concern—even among those previously dismissive of a financial crisis scenario. The sudden spike in long-term yields appeared to spook the White House into delaying its tariff policy by 90 days.According to The New York Times, insiders revealed that the sharp rise in Treasury yields and broader market chaos pushed President Trump to announce a temporary suspension of retaliatory tariffs on most nations.“Economic turmoil, especially the surge in Treasury yields, caused the President to backtrack on Wednesday afternoon,” said four people with direct knowledge of the decision.What likely drove the bond sell-off? Leverage unwinding, liquidity runs, and perhaps even foreign governments hitting the sell button. Regardless of the cause, the combination of equity losses, rising yields, slowing growth, and inflation fears forced the administration’s hand.The equity market has responded with violent swings:S&P 500 returns over the past six sessions include: -4.8%, -6.0%, +9.5%, -3.5%.Wednesday marked one of the top 10 best days for the S&P 500 since 1928, but the optimism didn’t last.This is not normal volatility. This is structural tension.Bond Market Strikes FirstThe yield surge was not just a market move—it was a message. The fixed income market essentially checked the White House, forcing a rare policy reversal.And yet, the core risk hasn’t dissipated. Stocks remain fragile. Bond yields are still climbing. The U.S. dollar continues to weaken. The tariff regime, even with the delay, remains historically aggressive.The Wall Street Journal reported:“Trump told advisors he was willing to accept ‘pain.’ He acknowledged tariffs could cause a recession but said he wanted to avoid one if possible.”That’s a chilling calculus: accept short-term economic damage for perceived long-term leverage. It also raises the odds of a policy-induced downturn.Bear Market… Or Close Enough?Technically, the S&P 500 has not entered a bear market, falling 18.9% from peak—shy of the 20% threshold. But the market has seen similar near-bear drawdowns before:1976–1978: -19.4%1990: -19.9%1998: -19.3%2011: -19.4%2018: -19.8%In reality, the 1% difference is only relevant to historians, not investors.Markets price in future risk. In 2020, stocks rallied while millions lost jobs. The market looked ahead—and was right. This time could be no different: the market may fall before the recession hits, and rebound while the economy is still contracting.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
3 months ago
0
0
Investor Sentiment Remains Deeply Bearish Despite Market Turbulence (Apr 13, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
3 months ago
0
0
Investor Sentiment Remains Deeply Bearish Despite Market Turbulence (Apr 13, 2025)
Investor sentiment has remained deeply negative, even before last week’s extreme volatility. When the S&P 500 hit an all-time high in mid-February, only 29.2% of respondents in the AAII survey reported bullish sentiment. That figure fell to the 19% range in the following weeks and now sits at 28.5%, barely improved despite intense market moves.Bearish sentiment, by contrast, is sharply elevated. From 40.5% on Feb 20, the AAII bearish response rate has jumped to 58.9%, down slightly from 61.9% last week. The number of neutral respondents is just 12.5%, among the lowest on record since the AAII survey began in 1987—only slightly above the all-time low of 11% in May 2009.Complementing this data, the Investors Intelligence survey, which measures sentiment among newsletter writers, showed bullish sentiment dropping to 23.6%, its lowest level since December 2008. Prior to that, such low readings were last seen in July 1994, underlining the historical rarity of the current pessimism.Importantly, the survey closed before news of U.S. tariff exemptions and the subsequent market rally, meaning the data may not fully reflect the latest developments.Last week also ranked among the most volatile weeks in modern history. The S&P 500’s intraday spread between its high and low closes hit 12%, one of the widest ranges since 1963. This marked the 18th time that the S&P 500 experienced a 10%+ swing during a week in which it also posted a net decline.Historically, such episodes tend to coincide with extreme sentiment lows. This week’s Investors Intelligence data confirm this pattern: bullish readings are near post-2008 crisis lows, and volatility-adjusted shifts in sentiment were more than twice the historical norm.[Compliance Note]셀스마트의 모든 게시글은 참고자료입니다. 최종 투자 결정은 신중한 판단과 개인의 책임 하에 이루어져야함을 알려드립니다.게시글의 내용은 부정확할 수 있으며, 매매에 따른 수익과 손실은 거래 당사자의 책임입니다.코어16은 본 글에서 소개하는 종목들에 대해 보유 중일 수 있으며, 언제든 매수 또는 매도할 수 있습니다.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
3 months ago
1
0
U.S. Travel Sector Faces Sharp Decline — International Bookings Plunge 70% (Apr 13, 2025)
Sell
Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
3 months ago
1
0
U.S. Travel Sector Faces Sharp Decline — International Bookings Plunge 70% (Apr 13, 2025)
The U.S. tourism industry is showing early signs of systemic contraction, following stricter immigration enforcement and tighter border screenings introduced by the Trump administration.From January to March 2025, the number of international arrivals dropped –4.4% year-over-year, with a steeper –10% decline in March alone.Atlanta International Airport reported a 5% drop in traffic, and alarm bells are ringing across the travel and hospitality sectors.The U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has deported approximately 37,000 people year-to-date, averaging 450 per day, further discouraging foreign entry.Tourism contributes 2.5% of U.S. GDP, with $2.9 trillion in annual foreign tourist spending and supporting 15 million jobs. The shock is already materializing: airfare bookings from Canada are down 70% YoY, and the estimated loss in Canadian consumer spending alone could reach $2.2 billion.While the U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) initially projected growth in international arrivals for 2025, cancellations in both leisure and business segments are rising.Analysts warn that if aggressive screening policies, trade tensions, and anti-American sentiment persist, a long-term recovery in the tourism sector may be at risk.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Sell
Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 밴더
·
3 months ago
0
0
China Says “We Will Fight to the End” — U.S.–China Tariff War Enters Long-Term Phase (Apr 12, 2025)
Strong Sell
Strong Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 밴더
·
3 months ago
0
0
China Says “We Will Fight to the End” — U.S.–China Tariff War Enters Long-Term Phase (Apr 12, 2025)
The U.S.–China tariff confrontation has entered a new structural phase. Following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to as high as 145%, China responded on April 12 by imposing retaliatory tariffs of 125% on U.S. imports. With nearly all traded goods now subject to high reciprocal tariffs, analysts warn that bilateral trade has effectively stalled.China’s Ministry of Finance condemned the U.S. actions as "unilateral bullying" that violates international trade norms, hinting at a strategic shift away from tit-for-tat escalation. UBS noted that Beijing’s messaging reflects a recognition that continued tariff escalation yields diminishing returns, given the near-total collapse of trade flows.For the first time, President Xi Jinping addressed the trade conflict publicly, stating during a summit with the Spanish Prime Minister that “China has never depended on the favors of others” and is “ready to fight against oppression.” The rhetoric signals that Beijing is preparing for a protracted standoff. China is also strengthening diplomatic ties, planning a Southeast Asia tour this month and resuming electric vehicle price negotiations with the EU—moves interpreted as part of a multilateral coalition-building effort that excludes the U.S.Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization (WTO) warned that the ongoing trade war could cut U.S.–China trade volumes by up to 80%. In addition to tariffs, non-tariff retaliation has already begun, including restrictions on American films and delays in student visas—indicating that the conflict is spilling over into broader economic and cultural arenas.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Strong Sell
Strong Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 밴더
·
3 months ago
0
0
Dollar Index Breaks Below 100 — Is a Confidence Crisis Brewing? (Apr 11, 2025)
Sell
Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 밴더
·
3 months ago
0
0
Dollar Index Breaks Below 100 — Is a Confidence Crisis Brewing? (Apr 11, 2025)
On April 11, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) plunged to 100.05, briefly breaking below the psychological threshold of 100 for the first time since April 2022. The index declined –0.81% intraday, marking a significant loss in momentum. The move reflects growing distrust toward U.S. assets and currency, amplified by ongoing trade disputes and geopolitical instability.This is more than a typical FX adjustment—it signals a "crisis of confidence" in the dollar. Historically seen as a safe-haven asset, the greenback’s weakness amid rising global risk diverges from its traditional role.Markets are now seeing a reversal of the usual "flight to safety" behavior, with investors increasingly cautious about U.S.-driven geopolitical and trade risks.If this trend persists, the weakened dollar could trigger broader risk-off sentiment in U.S. equity and bond markets. Conversely, a dollar rebound would suggest receding systemic risk, making the Dollar Index a critical leading indicator for global investor sentiment.Source: https://t.me/cahier_de_market/5244[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Sell
Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
3 months ago
1
0
China Tightens Rare Earth Export Controls — Refining & Processing Now State-Owned Monopoly (Apr 10, 2025)
Sell
Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
3 months ago
1
0
China Tightens Rare Earth Export Controls — Refining & Processing Now State-Owned Monopoly (Apr 10, 2025)
In direct response to the U.S.'s 100%+ tariff escalation, China has significantly strengthened its export controls on rare earth elements.The new measures go beyond raw ore restrictions—covering the refining and processing stages as well, which will now be exclusively permitted for state-owned enterprises.The move is expected to substantially disrupt the supply chains of advanced industries and defense contractors in the U.S. and allied nations.On April 4, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced export restrictions on seven heavy rare earths—samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium.Now, these restrictions have been expanded to include smelting and refining operations, effectively institutionalizing long-term controls rather than temporary measures.China currently accounts for 90% of global rare earth refining capacity, and supplies around 70% of U.S. rare earth imports. The updated policy is designed to maximize domestic value capture while applying strategic pressure on the U.S. tech and defense sectors.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Sell
Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
3 months ago
0
0
EU and China Agree to Scrap EV Tariffs, Resume Price-Floor Negotiations (Apr 10, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
3 months ago
0
0
EU and China Agree to Scrap EV Tariffs, Resume Price-Floor Negotiations (Apr 10, 2025)
The European Union (EU) and China have agreed to eliminate tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) and reopen negotiations on a minimum price agreement.This decision comes amid shifting dynamics in the global trade landscape following U.S. tariff escalations against China, and marks a potential de-escalation in EU–China trade tensions.Since 2023, the EU had imposed countervailing duties of up to 45.3% on Chinese EV imports.However, in recent discussions between EU Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič and Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao, both sides agreed to remove the duties and immediately restart talks on a conditional price floor, under which Chinese EVs would not be sold below an agreed threshold.A high-level EU–China summit is scheduled for July.Unlike the U.S.'s confrontational trade posture, this move is seen as a cooperative attempt by the EU and China to resolve disputes bilaterally—a sign that new economic partnerships excluding the U.S. may be taking shape.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
3 months ago
0
0
U.S.–China Trade War Escalates into Full-Scale Tariff Battle (Apr 10, 2025)
Strong Sell
Strong Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
3 months ago
0
0
U.S.–China Trade War Escalates into Full-Scale Tariff Battle (Apr 10, 2025)
Trade tensions between the United States and China have escalated to their highest level yet.While President Donald Trump announced a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs for countries excluding China, tariffs on Chinese imports were raised to 125% without exception.In direct response, China imposed an 84% retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods, effective April 10 at 12:01 PM (local time).Beijing has consistently responded with proportional countermeasures throughout the conflict.When the U.S. announced 34% tariffs, China matched it. When Washington raised it by another 50%, China escalated its response to 84%.Now, the U.S. has retaliated with an unprecedented 125% tariff on Chinese imports, signaling a stark departure from its softer stance toward other countries.This sharp escalation underscores a deepening divide in the global trade system, centered squarely on the U.S.–China axis.The latest developments go beyond trade.China has added 18 U.S. companies, primarily in defense sectors, to its sanctions list. It has also issued travel warnings for Chinese citizens visiting the U.S. and advised caution on student visa applications.Strategic export controls—such as restrictions on rare earth shipments—are also being implemented, pointing to long-term confrontation.The World Trade Organization (WTO) has warned that bilateral trade volumes could fall by as much as 80%, raising global concerns over supply chain stability and geopolitical risk.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Strong Sell
Strong Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 대니
·
3 months ago
3
0
Trump Suspends Some Reciprocal Tariffs for 90 Days — Goldman Sachs Reverses Recession Call (Apr 9, 2025)
Sell
Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 대니
·
3 months ago
3
0
Trump Suspends Some Reciprocal Tariffs for 90 Days — Goldman Sachs Reverses Recession Call (Apr 9, 2025)
On April 9 (local time), President Donald Trump announced a 90-day suspension on select reciprocal tariffs, excluding China. The unexpected move triggered a swift sentiment shift on Wall Street, which had been rattled by trade policy uncertainty.Notably, Goldman Sachs reversed its U.S. recession call just one hour after initially projecting a downturn, returning to a soft-landing scenario.Key Developments✅ Trump’s Announcement90-day suspension of additional reciprocal tariffs for countries excluding ChinaExisting 10% baseline tariffs will remain in placeSector-specific additional tariffs will proceed as planned✅ Goldman Sachs Outlook ShiftBefore Trump’s statement: Adopted a recession scenario, assigning a 65% probabilityAfter the announcement: Reverted to non-recession baselineU.S. GDP forecast revised to +0.5%12-month recession probability cut to 45%Goldman noted that “effective tariff rates will still rise by close to 15 percentage points,” suggesting the macro impact may unfold gradually rather than immediately.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Sell
Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
3 months ago
0
0
Oil Prices Are Falling, But OPEC Is Increasing Output (Apr 9, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
3 months ago
0
0
Oil Prices Are Falling, But OPEC Is Increasing Output (Apr 9, 2025)
Oil prices have come under increased pressure following a sweeping tariff announcement from U.S. President Donald Trump that rattled global markets. Companies and investors are growing increasingly anxious about an escalating trade war and a broader economic slowdown.Goldman Sachs on Thursday revised down its December 2025 forecasts for both major oil benchmarks—Brent and WTI—by $5 each, to $66 and $62 per barrel, respectively. The bank cited the materialization of two key downside risks it had previously flagged: rising tariffs and elevated OPEC+ supply levels.The bank also trimmed its oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026, stating that "given elevated recession risks and heightened price volatility, we no longer see a stable price range as viable." Analysts at S&P Global Market Intelligence warned that, in a worst-case scenario, global oil demand growth could shrink by as much as 500,000 barrels per day.JPMorgan has now raised the probability of a global recession this year from 40% to 60%.So when OPEC, which accounts for roughly 40% of global crude output, not only moved ahead with its previously announced production hike in coordination with non-OPEC allies—but also tripled the expected volume—the market was caught off guard.On Thursday, eight key OPEC+ producers agreed to raise oil output by 411,000 barrels per day, accelerating the planned increase and sending oil prices tumbling by 6%. The group—comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—had been widely expected to implement a much smaller hike of under 140,000 barrels per day.OPEC+ Optimism and the Trump FactorSeveral dynamics appear to be behind the production alliance's decision. One is the group's optimism about oil demand in the latter half of the year—an increasingly contrarian view as investor sentiment sours and fears of a global downturn mount.In a joint statement on Thursday, the eight OPEC+ nations involved in the decision said: "Market fundamentals remain sound and outlooks positive. This move allows participating countries an opportunity to accelerate compensation efforts."They added that "the phased increase could be paused or reversed depending on evolving market conditions."Another factor may well be the “other T-word” in the White House—Donald Trump—who has loudly urged oil producers to pump more crude in order to ease price pressures on American consumers, both during and between his presidential terms."This is, in part, a gesture to appease Trump," said Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee, in an interview with CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Friday. "Trump is likely to pressure OPEC to lower oil prices to counteract the inflationary effects of tariffs."OPEC officials, however, have denied that the move was made with Trump in mind.Compliance Challenges and Market ShareAnother persistent issue for OPEC+ is compliance—some countries are producing well above their quotas, complicating efforts to control market supply. According to Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy and MENA research at RBC Capital Markets, the production boost may be a way to enforce discipline.In a note published Thursday, Croft wrote, "We believe the decision reflects the leadership's intent to send a warning to Kazakhstan, Iraq, and even Russia over continued overproduction." She referenced the March 2020 oil price war, when Saudi Arabia flooded the market to punish Moscow for initially refusing to cut output—causing Brent prices to plunge to around $15 per barrel.Kavonic added that the production hike is also “a clear bid by OPEC to regain market share”—likely at the expense of U.S. shale producers, who are unlikely to welcome the move.What’s Next?Nader Itayim, managing editor at Argus Media, said, "OPEC+ appears confident that markets will rebalance in the coming months, based on assumptions of rising summer demand and a resolution to the tariff standoff."He added that most producers would be satisfied with a Brent price in the $70–$75 range.What happens next will depend heavily on the trajectory of tariffs and any escalation in the trade war. While analysts note that if prices fall toward $60, OPEC+ may be forced to pause—or even reverse—the production hike, this could face resistance from countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan, which have long sought to boost output to increase revenues.Still, Itayim emphasized that the group retains flexibility to adjust plans on a monthly basis.“If things don’t play out as expected, all it really takes is a phone call,” he said.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
3 months ago
0
0
Trump Administration Reaffirms Tariff Push Despite Global Market Sell-Off (Apr 7, 2025)
Strong Sell
Strong Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
3 months ago
0
0
Trump Administration Reaffirms Tariff Push Despite Global Market Sell-Off (Apr 7, 2025)
Despite a sharp sell-off in global equity markets, the Trump administration has reiterated its commitment to proceed with reciprocal tariffs. On April 7 (local time), U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated in an interview with CBS that President Trump’s tariff plans are “no joke” and will take effect as scheduled on April 9.President Trump announced on April 2 that a 10% base tariff would be imposed on all imports, along with additional high tariffs on goods from 57 countries. The announcement triggered a significant market downturn, with approximately $7.46 trillion in global market capitalization wiped out over two trading sessions, according to S&P Global data.Secretary Lutnick emphasized the need to “reset the global trade order,” arguing that the U.S. can no longer tolerate persistent trade deficits while other countries enjoy surpluses. His comments were echoed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on NBC the same day, who confirmed the tariffs would be implemented on schedule, reinforcing the administration’s hawkish stance.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Strong Sell
Strong Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
3 months ago
0
0
Morningstar Warns Gold Prices Could Plunge 40% Within Years (Apr 1, 2025)
Strong Sell
Strong Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
3 months ago
0
0
Morningstar Warns Gold Prices Could Plunge 40% Within Years (Apr 1, 2025)
Gold prices recently surged to an all-time high of $3,160 per ounce, but Morningstar warned that the precious metal could face a significant correction in the coming years. John Mills, an analyst at Morningstar, projected that gold could decline by as much as 40% to around $1,820 per ounce within the next five years.Mills pointed to a sharp increase in supply as the primary driver of the anticipated decline. He noted that gold mining profitability has reached its highest level since 2012, prompting major producers like Australia to accelerate new mining developments. At the same time, gold demand from both central banks and investors is expected to weaken. According to a recent survey by the World Gold Council (WGC), 71% of global central banks plan to either maintain or reduce their gold holdings over the next 12 months.Mills further argued that the recent rally in gold was largely driven by safe-haven demand amid Trump's tariff policies and global economic uncertainty, making the surge likely temporary. He referenced the post-pandemic period as a parallel, where gold spiked but later retreated sharply.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Strong Sell
Strong Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
3 months ago
0
0
How to Defend Yourself Against Stagflation (Mar 31, 2025)
Sell
Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
3 months ago
0
0
How to Defend Yourself Against Stagflation (Mar 31, 2025)
Stagflation — the rare combination of stagnant economic growth, high unemployment, and persistent inflation — creates one of the most difficult challenges for both policymakers and individuals. Typically, inflation rises during periods of strong growth, while recessions tend to lower inflation as demand softens. Stagflation defies this pattern, making conventional economic policy tools less effective.What makes stagflation worse than a typical recession is the policy dilemma it creates. In a standard recession, central banks can lower interest rates and increase government spending to stimulate growth without worrying much about inflation. However, in a stagflationary environment, inflation remains elevated despite weak growth, limiting the effectiveness of traditional stimulus measures and worsening the situation. Stagflation also erodes purchasing power, weakens consumer and business confidence, and prolongs economic hardship. Unlike a normal recession, stagflation creates a double burden of falling wages and job opportunities, while living costs continue to rise.Historical CaseThe 1970s offer a classic example of stagflation. A combination of oil price shocks and policy mistakes led to rising energy prices, high unemployment, and persistent inflation. Ultimately, the Federal Reserve had to aggressively hike interest rates to control inflation, which triggered a severe recession. Today, concerns are rising again. Tariff hikes and a growing risk of recession are raising uncertainty and reducing spending, setting the stage for potential stagflation. While policymakers and wealthy individuals may navigate this period more easily, most ordinary Americans could suffer significant financial pressure.Key Features of StagflationSlow or negative economic growthHigh unemployment despite rising pricesPersistent inflation reducing purchasing power11 Practical Strategies to Survive StagflationFix and stock up now: Repair essential assets like your car and home while prices are still manageable. Stock up on essentials before further price hikes.Maintain 6–12 months of living expenses in cash: Avoid selling assets at low prices during market downturns by ensuring liquidity.Adjust asset allocation: Traditional 60/40 portfolios may underperform. Increase exposure to inflation-resistant assets like commodities, TIPS, real estate, and high-quality dividend stocks.Clarify your investment goals: Understand your timeline and risk tolerance to better navigate volatility.Strengthen your job security: Proactively add value at work and build stronger relationships with colleagues and managers.Diversify income streams: Develop alternative income sources such as freelance work, rental income, or side businesses.Collect outstanding debts and consider private credit: Prioritize collecting loans and explore investing in private credit funds or short-term debt products.For landlords, monitor tenants closely: Maintain good tenant relationships and adjust rental strategies as needed to manage payment risks.If retired, adjust withdrawal rates: Traditional 4% withdrawal rules may be unsustainable. Consider dynamic withdrawal strategies.Consider retiring during stagflation: For financially secure individuals, stagflation may present a good window to retire, as opportunity costs are lower.Consider switching jobs pre-recession: If your company is financially vulnerable, seek employment in more resilient industries before conditions worsen.
article
Sell
Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
3 months ago
0
0
Goldman Sachs Warns: "Trump’s Tariff Policy Could Fuel Inflation, Recession Probability Jumps to 35%" (Mar 31, 2025)
Strong Sell
Strong Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
3 months ago
0
0
Goldman Sachs Warns: "Trump’s Tariff Policy Could Fuel Inflation, Recession Probability Jumps to 35%" (Mar 31, 2025)
Goldman Sachs has issued a sharp warning, stating that President Trump's proposed reciprocal tariffs could severely impact the U.S. economy. Trump is expected to announce a sweeping global tariff package on April 2, dubbed "Liberation Day," which could significantly intensify inflationary pressures and recession risks.Jan Hatzius, Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs, projected that the new tariffs would push the average U.S. tariff rate up by 15 percentage points this year. In response, Goldman raised its year-end core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 3.5%.More concerning is the sharp increase in recession risk. Goldman Sachs lowered its 2025 U.S. real GDP growth forecast from 1.9% to 1.5%, factoring in slower economic growth and deteriorating consumer and business sentiment. Additionally, it raised the probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months from 20% to 35%.The financial market is already reacting. Last Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 716 points (-1.7%), while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropped by about 2% and 2.7%, respectively. The S&P 500 is now down 5% year-to-date, putting it on track for its worst quarter since September 2022.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Strong Sell
Strong Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 SIK
·
3 months ago
1
0
Should I Sell Now? The Signals Are Sending a Hint
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 SIK
·
3 months ago
1
0
Should I Sell Now? The Signals Are Sending a Hint
Market Strength Indicator (MSI) has issued a SELL signal.The Market Strength Indicator analyzes the profit/loss ratio of investors based on market strength. It generates a BUY signal when the majority of investors are in profit, suggesting market recovery potential, and a SELL signal when most are in loss, indicating potential market downturn.Time Varying Parameter (TVP) has issued a SELL signal.The Time Varying Parameter model uses a Bayesian time-series approach, combining market data, macroeconomic indicators, and sentiment indices to structurally forecast stock market uptrends or downtrends.Gold-Silver Ratio has issued a SELL signal.The Gold-Silver Ratio measures changes in the relative value of gold versus silver to gauge market risk sentiment. A rising preference for gold signals heightened market anxiety.American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey has issued a SELL signal.The AAII sentiment index reflects the optimism or pessimism of U.S. retail investors based on survey results.Real Rate Inversion has issued a BUY signal.The Real Rate Inversion detects abnormal yield curve inversions when short-term real interest rates (1-year) exceed long-term real rates (10-year), often serving as a recession warning signal.Fear and Greed Index has issued a BUY signal.The Fear & Greed Index aggregates multiple market indicators to assess extremes in investor sentiment, with readings typically used to identify contrarian opportunities.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
3 months ago
0
0
Korea’s Self-Employed Borrowers Face Highest Delinquency Rate in a Decade, Raising Systemic Risk (Mar 31, 2025)
Strong Sell
Strong Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
3 months ago
0
0
Korea’s Self-Employed Borrowers Face Highest Delinquency Rate in a Decade, Raising Systemic Risk (Mar 31, 2025)
As the prolonged economic downturn and sluggish domestic demand persist, the loan delinquency problem among South Korea’s self-employed is worsening. In particular, rising numbers of financially strained self-employed borrowers have driven delinquency rates in the secondary lending sector to their highest level in a decade.According to the Bank of Korea, the delinquency rate for personal business loans at savings banks (based on loans overdue by one month or more) reached 11.70% at the end of last year, up 0.70 percentage points from the previous quarter. This is the highest level since Q2 2015 (11.87%) and represents a sharp rise of 4.07 percentage points from a year earlier (7.63%). Delinquency rates at credit card companies and capital firms also climbed to 3.67%, marking the highest level in 10 years and 6 months since 2014.Even in the banking sector, delinquency rates remain elevated, recording 0.60%, the highest since 2014. Moreover, both the proportion and total debt of self-employed borrowers with multiple loans continue to rise, signaling a growing risk of further defaults. As of the end of last year, 56.5% of all self-employed borrowers had multiple loans, accounting for 70.4% of the total outstanding self-employed loans.The average debt held by multi-loan self-employed borrowers stood at KRW 430 million, the highest since Q4 2021. With self-employed loan defaults likely to trigger a broader credit risk across the financial system, risk management within the financial markets is becoming increasingly critical.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Strong Sell
Strong Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 밴더
·
3 months ago
0
0
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales Are Slowing — A Hidden Warning? (Mar 30, 2025)
Sell
Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 밴더
·
3 months ago
0
0
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales Are Slowing — A Hidden Warning? (Mar 30, 2025)
Monthly sales of heavy trucks (over 14,000 pounds) — a well-known leading indicator for the U.S. economy — are showing signs of a slowdown. Historically, when U.S. heavy truck sales have dipped below 300,000 units, a recession has often followed, making it a key signal closely monitored by the market.According to the latest data for February 2025, heavy truck sales stood at approximately 436,000 units, comfortably above the 300,000 recession threshold. However, on a longer-term trend, sales have been declining steadily over the past few years, raising growing concerns about the economic outlook.Market analysts caution that while the current sales level is not flashing an immediate recession signal, continued external pressures such as trade policy uncertainty and slowing economic growth could accelerate the downturn. The ongoing softening in truck sales is increasingly being viewed as a potential warning sign for broader economic weakness in the U.S.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Sell
Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 대니
·
3 months ago
0
0
NPLs at Korean Banks Surge to 4.5-Year High — Household Loan Quality in Focus (Mar 27, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 대니
·
3 months ago
0
0
NPLs at Korean Banks Surge to 4.5-Year High — Household Loan Quality in Focus (Mar 27, 2025)
According to the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS), non-performing loans (NPLs) at domestic banks reached KRW 14.8 trillion as of December 2024, the highest level since March 2020 (KRW 15 trillion). While the NPL ratio remained flat quarter-over-quarter at 0.53%, it increased by 6bps YoY. Notably, the household loan NPL ratio rose from 0.27% to 0.29%, signaling growing stress in consumer credit.Following post-COVID credit support measures, the overall NPL ratio had stabilized, but began climbing again from Q3 2022. Although the pace of deterioration has recently moderated, the uptick in household loan delinquencies warrants closer investor scrutiny. Meanwhile, corporate loan NPLs held steady at 0.65%.To brace for prolonged economic weakness and policy uncertainty, banks have expanded their loan-loss provisions to KRW 27.8 trillion, with their reserve coverage ratio inching up 0.3pp to 187.7% from the previous quarter. The FSS noted it will continue strengthening asset quality oversight across the banking sector.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
3 months ago
0
0
Deepening Decoupling: Why the Korean Stock Market Is Not Keeping Up with Earnings (Mar 21, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
3 months ago
0
0
Deepening Decoupling: Why the Korean Stock Market Is Not Keeping Up with Earnings (Mar 21, 2025)
Korean and U.S. Earnings Momentum Breaks from Market TrendsA historically unusual decoupling phenomenon has emerged between corporate earnings and stock market performance in both Korea and the U.S. Unlike in the past, the synchronization between earnings momentum and stock indices has weakened significantly.Since the second half of 2023, Korea’s stock market has remained largely range-bound, while corporate earnings have completed an entire cycle of growth and contraction. A similar disconnect is occurring in the U.S., where stock market gains are not fully aligned with earnings fundamentals, adding to market uncertainty worldwide.Higher Earnings Volatility in KoreaThe volatility of corporate earnings in Korea has been much larger than in the U.S., reflecting the market’s greater sensitivity to global economic uncertainty and political risks.For instance, during Trump’s first term, U.S. corporate profits surged due to large-scale tax cuts, whereas Korean corporate earnings plummeted amid trade tensions with China. However, under the current Trump administration, Korea’s earnings momentum is behaving differently than before, showing resilience despite policy uncertainty.Why Is the Korean Market Stagnating Despite Strong Earnings?Currently, Korea’s earnings momentum is at its highest level of the year, yet the stock market has failed to rise accordingly. This breaks from past patterns, where earnings typically served as a leading indicator for stock prices. The lack of a clear market direction suggests that stock movements may be driven more by investor sentiment than fundamentals.During such periods, irrational behaviors like meme-driven rallies or FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) tend to dominate the market. This increases the risk of stocks rising sharply despite weak fundamentals.source： https://t.me/purequant/12039[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
3 months ago
0
0
Fed Cites Tariff Uncertainty, Lowers Economic Outlook (Mar 20, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
3 months ago
0
0
Fed Cites Tariff Uncertainty, Lowers Economic Outlook (Mar 20, 2025)
Federal Reserve Maintains Rate Stance, Raises Inflation Forecast, Lowers Growth and Employment OutlookThe Federal Reserve has maintained a wait-and-see stance on interest rates while raising its inflation forecast for the year and lowering growth and employment projections.During its policy meeting, the central bank kept the federal funds rate at around 4.3%, as it assesses how the Trump administration’s sweeping changes in trade, immigration, spending, and tax policies will reshape the economic outlook. Consumer sentiment has declined in recent weeks amid headlines about federal spending cuts and tariff hikes."We believe this is a good time to wait for more clarity," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a press conference on Wednesday.Investors were relieved that Powell did not take a more aggressive stance on potential tariff-driven price increases. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9% (about 380 points), while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite gained more than 1% each. According to the Fed’s latest economic projections, 11 out of 19 policymakers now expect at least two rate cuts this year, compared to 15 officials in December who expected the same.Tariffs to Push Inflation Higher, Fed Sees Delay in Cooling PricesFed officials now expect inflation to rise to 2.7% this year, up from 2.5% in January. "This is actually due to the tariffs," Powell stated. He noted that progress in lowering inflation is likely to be delayed for the time being.Currently, policymakers expect inflation to slow in 2026 and 2027, which suggests they see no reason to adjust rates in response to tariffs alone. "If inflation is something that would fade quickly without our intervention, sometimes it is appropriate to look past it," Powell said. "And that could be the case with tariff-driven inflation."Lower Growth Projections, Policy Uncertainty IntensifiesFed policymakers lowered their GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% (December forecast) to 1.7%. Over the past year, they have aimed for a balanced approach. Inflation had fallen from 5.5% two years ago to 2.5% in January, marking significant progress toward the Fed’s 2% target.Officials have sought to avoid unnecessary economic slowdown while allowing price and wage growth to moderate. Between September and December 2024, the Fed cut rates by a full percentage point. However, they also do not want to reverse recent progress on inflation.The Trump administration’s policy shifts make growth and inflation projections more challenging. Deregulation and measures to lower energy prices could boost growth and help inflation cool further. Meanwhile, recent economic data presents a mixed picture—consumer spending has slowed, but employment remains stable, with the February unemployment rate at 4.1%."The economy is still in pretty good shape, and employment remains stable," said Frank Sorrentino, CEO of ConnectOne Bank, which manages $9.9 billion in assets in Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey. However, he noted that policy-driven uncertainty has caused loan demand to slow."We will find ways to navigate through this, but people are struggling to decide whether to start, stop, slow down, or speed up their plans. This makes it very, very difficult for businesses to operate effectively," Sorrentino added.Tariffs Could Complicate Fed’s Rate DecisionsExcluding food and energy, goods prices declined for most of last year, significantly contributing to slowing inflation. However, prices have recently started rising again.Michael Reid, chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets, warned that the Fed faces a growing challenge."On one hand, there are signs of a slowing labor market, but much of this data does not immediately appear in employment reports. On the other hand, tariffs could push inflation higher throughout the rest of the year," Reid said.A combination of stagnant growth and rising prices—often referred to as stagflation—could make it more difficult for the Fed to preemptively cut rates in response to economic slowdown.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
4 months ago
0
0
BoA: "U.S. Stock Allocation Sees Record Drop Amid Trump Risk" (Mar 19, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
4 months ago
0
0
BoA: "U.S. Stock Allocation Sees Record Drop Amid Trump Risk" (Mar 19, 2025)
A recent Bank of America (BoA) Global Fund Manager Survey revealed that U.S. stock allocations saw their largest-ever decline over the past month. BoA released its findings in a report on March 18.Market Sentiment & Trade War ConcernsAmong the 171 surveyed global fund managers, many cited the sharp 10%+ drop in the S&P 500 from its peak as a key driver of the ongoing correction. BoA attributed this sell-off to former President Donald Trump's tariff policies, which have reignited concerns over a trade war.55% of respondents identified "trade war risk" as the biggest threat to the global economy, highlighting fears of a potential recession triggered by escalating trade tensions.Is the Correction a Buying Opportunity?BoA cautioned against viewing the S&P 500 correction as a buying opportunity, noting that trade-related uncertainties could push U.S. stocks beyond a short-term dip into a more prolonged downtrend. As a result, the incentive for dip-buying remains weak.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Measuring the Neutral Interest Rate Is a Complex Process (Mar 8, 2023)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Measuring the Neutral Interest Rate Is a Complex Process (Mar 8, 2023)
What Is R-Star (r)?*R-star (r*, the real neutral rate of interest) is a theoretical rate that allows an economy to grow at its potential without causing inflationary or deflationary pressures.It represents a "neutral" level where monetary policy neither stimulates nor restricts economic activity.R-star is a real interest rate, meaning it accounts for expected inflation.Why R-Star MattersMonetary Policy Benchmark: If the policy rate is above r*, monetary policy is restrictive; if it is below r*, it is expansionary.Long-term Guidance: Central banks use r* to gauge where interest rates should stabilize in the future.Asset Valuation: R-star influences discount rates used in financial models, affecting corporate valuations and asset prices.Challenges in Measuring R-StarUnobservable Variable:R-star is a theoretical construct and cannot be directly observed.It must be estimated using economic models, which yield different results based on assumptions.Structural Economic Changes:Technological progress, demographic shifts, and globalization impact r*, making its estimation highly uncertain.Data Limitations:Economic data reflects past conditions, making forward-looking estimates difficult.Different Models for Estimating R-StarHLW Model (Holston-Laubach-Williams):Uses inflation and unemployment trends to estimate r*.Becomes unreliable when Phillips Curve relationships weaken.UMod Model:Enhances HLW by incorporating labor market variables.Still constrained by data limitations and model complexity.Simplified Approaches:Directly estimate output gaps.Reduce complexity but rely heavily on subjective judgment.Policy ImplicationsOver-reliance on r estimates can misguide policy decisions.*Central banks should use r as a flexible reference rather than an absolute target.*Considering multiple indicators (inflation expectations, labor market conditions, financial stability risks) is crucial for effective policy.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Optimistic Investors Achieve Better Returns (Oct 23, 2024)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Optimistic Investors Achieve Better Returns (Oct 23, 2024)
Pessimism Seems Smart, but Optimism Wins in the Long RunOver the past five years, despite economic uncertainty and negative forecasts, the stock market has demonstrated resilient growth.U.S. stocks (VTI): +15.18% annual returnInternational stocks (VXUS): +7.74% annual returnMeanwhile, many experts predicted recessions and market crashes, but reality proved them wrong.Between 2019 and 2024, the world faced a pandemic, supply chain disruptions, rising interest rates, and inflation surges. Yet, despite these challenges, the market rebounded and surged higher.In early 2020, fearful investors cut back on stock exposure, only to miss out on the historic recovery that followed.The Allure of PessimismPessimism feels intelligent—negative forecasts sound analytical and cautious.Experts warning of economic collapse, housing crises, wars, and financial meltdowns often appear insightful.However, historically, markets have always recovered and grown.If pessimism were always correct, the market would be far lower than it is today.Optimism is often mistaken for blind positivity, but long-term data proves that economies and markets tend to overcome crises and continue growing.For example:Peak oil fears predicted resource depletion, but new technologies unlocked alternative energy sources.Key to Investing: Optimism + PatienceThe best investment strategy is staying invested in the market.Markets are volatile in the short term but trend upward over time.Optimism prevents panic selling and enables long-term gains.Trying to look smart can lead to poor investment decisions.Many investors exit markets due to short-term uncertainty and fear.Yet, those who stay invested consistently achieve better long-term results.Pessimism may seem logical and cautious, but long-term success comes from optimism and persistence.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Trump’s Claim That Bitcoin Can Solve U.S. National Debt Is Unrealistic (Nov 27, 2024)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Trump’s Claim That Bitcoin Can Solve U.S. National Debt Is Unrealistic (Nov 27, 2024)
Trump’s Bitcoin Strategy: Rhetoric or Policy Shift?Is Donald Trump’s recent stance on cryptocurrency just political rhetoric, or does it hint at a potential policy direction? As Selena Zito noted in 2016, while the media tends to take Trump’s statements literally, his supporters focus more on his intent. Therefore, his proposal for a "strategic Bitcoin reserve" and using Bitcoin to pay off national debt should not be taken at face value. However, given his recent statements and the current political-economic landscape, the possibility of U.S. government intervention in Bitcoin cannot be completely ruled out.In July, Trump declared at a Bitcoin conference that the U.S. government would not sell its Bitcoin holdings. Then, in September, he proposed creating a sovereign wealth fund to use Bitcoin for debt repayment. The U.S. government currently holds 210,000 BTC, worth $21 billion. To cover $36 trillion in national debt, Bitcoin would need to reach $17.3 million per coin, an unrealistic scenario. However, government-led Bitcoin accumulation remains a possibility.Potential Avenues for U.S. Bitcoin PurchasesTrump could bypass congressional approval and acquire Bitcoin through the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), a $41 billion emergency reserve historically used for financial interventions. If allocated to Bitcoin purchases, it could boost prices significantly.Additionally, Senator Cynthia Lummis has proposed a bill that would revalue the Federal Reserve’s gold holdings from $42.22/oz (book value) to $2,000/oz (market value), allowing the U.S. Treasury to unlock $640 billion. This funding could also be used to acquire Bitcoin, further fueling speculation.If these measures materialize, the U.S. government would emerge as a massive Bitcoin buyer, triggering an unprecedented bull run in crypto markets. However, such government-led accumulation would have profound financial and economic ripple effects. While Bitcoin lacks cash flow and intrinsic utility, its value—like other financial assets—is dictated by institutional trust and adoption. If the U.S. government openly supports Bitcoin, this would mark a transformational shift rather than a speculative trend.Market participants now assign a 1-in-3 probability that Trump’s Bitcoin reserve plan could materialize by April 2025. While policy execution remains uncertain, dismissing this as mere campaign rhetoric is no longer viable.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
A New Cryptocurrency Gains Attention (Jan 22, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
A New Cryptocurrency Gains Attention (Jan 22, 2025)
Trump’s $TRUMP Meme Coin LaunchPresident Trump has launched a new meme coin, $TRUMP, on the Solana blockchain. Initially suspected to be fake news or a hack, the coin was later confirmed to be officially released. Within four hours, it surged 4,000%, reaching $8 per coin, and later surpassed $30, bringing its market capitalization over $5 billion. After hitting a peak of $74, the price crashed and is currently trading at $38.Such extreme price fluctuations are common in the cryptocurrency market. The meme coin frenzy is nothing new, as similar patterns have occurred with Dogecoin and other altcoins. However, early investors typically capture most of the profits, while latecomers either earn smaller returns or face losses. This phenomenon creates an extreme survivor bias, where success stories are widely publicized, but failures are overlooked.Meme Coins: Speculation vs. InvestmentMany investors have suffered losses in the crypto market, but most recognize it as a form of gambling rather than traditional investing. Meme coins resemble a lottery system, where high risks accompany speculative opportunities. Unlike in 2021, established elites are now directly engaging with crypto, and the launch of $TRUMP reflects this growing trend.Legendary short-seller Jim Chanos warned that "the golden age of fraud" is approaching following the launch of $TRUMP. However, this issue is not unique to Trump. In fact, congressional insider trading may pose a greater ethical problem. At least meme coins openly acknowledge their speculative nature, whereas some politicians profit from non-public information in secrecy.The Rise of the Attention EconomyThe meme coin surge reflects a shifting economic paradigm. In the past, education and traditional careers were primary means of wealth accumulation. Today, "attention" has become the new currency. As people spend more time online, the ability to monetize attention has become a key determinant of economic value. Trump is one of the most adept figures in leveraging attention, and his meme coin serves as an extreme example of financializing public interest.While meme coin trading may yield short-term gains, long-term wealth requires creating real value. Instead of chasing quick profits, developing technical skills and expertise remains the most reliable path to sustainable financial success. Rather than following fleeting trends, individuals should focus on building assets with lasting value.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Nasdaq 100 Index Overview (Feb 18, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Nasdaq 100 Index Overview (Feb 18, 2025)
History & EvolutionThe Nasdaq 100 Index, introduced in 1985, tracks the performance of the top 100 non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. As the first electronic stock market in 1971, Nasdaq became a hub for technological innovation, and the Nasdaq 100 has since served as a benchmark for large-cap growth companies.Technology Sector DominanceAs of 2025, the technology sector makes up 62.25% of the Nasdaq 100, led by Apple, Microsoft, and NVIDIA. Companies like Amazon and Tesla, though categorized in different sectors, operate technology-driven businesses, further solidifying Nasdaq’s tech-heavy nature. The ongoing AI and digital transformation boom continues to drive the index, making sector concentration risk and rebalancing impact key factors for investors.Nasdaq’s Competitive Edge in IPOsNasdaq has outperformed NYSE in IPO listings for six consecutive years through 2024. Over 160 companies raised $22 billion on Nasdaq in 11 months of 2024, reflecting growing preference among tech-driven firms. AI-related firms' rapid expansion has further fueled Nasdaq’s dominance in public listings.Inclusion & Exclusion CriteriaCompanies must be exclusively listed on the Nasdaq Global Select Market, maintain high liquidity, and have a minimum 3-month trading history.Financial firms & REITs are excluded.Annual index rebalancing adjusts the composition, removing underperforming stocks.In 2024, Super Micro Computer, Illumina, and Moderna were removed from the index.Nasdaq 100 vs. S&P 500QQQ ETF tracks Nasdaq 100, with a 62.25% tech weighting, making it more volatile.S&P 500 covers 500 companies, offering a more diversified portfolio with lower volatility.Market Performance & Growth TrendsNasdaq 100 experienced major events such as the dot-com bubble (2000), the financial crisis (2008), and AI-driven expansion (2024).After an 800% rise from 1995-2000, the dot-com crash led to a 76.81% decline.The index only recovered its 2000 peak in 2015, but today’s AI-driven rally differs due to companies' strong profitability & financial stability.Innovation & Economic ImpactNasdaq defines innovation as a driver of economic value, knowledge integration, and real-world impact. R&D spending and patent filings serve as key indicators, expanding beyond technology to include healthcare, consumer goods, and other industries.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
4 months ago
0
0
White House Pressures South Korea on Trade Deficit, Demands Removal of Non-Tariff Barriers (Mar 18, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
4 months ago
0
0
White House Pressures South Korea on Trade Deficit, Demands Removal of Non-Tariff Barriers (Mar 18, 2025)
The White House has identified South Korea as a key trade surplus nation and is pushing for the removal of non-tariff barriers. Kevin Hassett, Chairman of the U.S. National Economic Council (NEC), stated in a CNBC interview that the U.S. trade deficit with Europe, China, and South Korea remains a concern. He pointed out that high tariffs and non-tariff barriers make it difficult for U.S. companies to compete. The U.S. is set to announce its "reciprocal tariff" policy on April 2, adjusting tariffs in response to perceived trade barriers.Hassett emphasized that if trade surplus nations like South Korea lower their trade barriers, negotiations could conclude swiftly. However, he hinted at additional tariffs on countries that maintain such barriers. The U.S. government has cited high tariffs and strict quarantine regulations on agricultural products as examples of non-tariff barriers, suggesting South Korea could be included in the reciprocal tariff policy.South Korea already has a free trade agreement (FTA) with the U.S., eliminating tariffs on most American products. However, South Korea’s trade surplus with the U.S. has increased for five consecutive years, reaching $55.7 billion in 2023. Hassett noted that while there may be uncertainty until April 2, the market will soon acknowledge the validity of a reciprocal trade policy.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
4 months ago
0
0
U.S. Retail Investors Exit Stock Market, Shift to Safe Assets and European Defense Stocks (Mar 18, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
4 months ago
0
0
U.S. Retail Investors Exit Stock Market, Shift to Safe Assets and European Defense Stocks (Mar 18, 2025)
U.S. retail investors are pulling funds out of the domestic stock market and reallocating them into safe-haven assets and European defense stocks. Growing concerns over stock market declines, fueled by Donald Trump’s tariff policies, have heightened investor anxiety. Notably, the proportion of U.S. investors manually adjusting their retirement savings accounts, such as 401(k) plans, has surged fourfold compared to the usual levels this year, despite most being managed by robo-advisors.Investors are shifting towards money market funds (MMFs), short-term bonds, and gold, while also increasing exposure to European defense companies. Concerns over potential cuts in U.S. security aid have prompted European countries to ramp up their own defense spending, driving up defense stock prices. In February alone, $1.8 billion flowed into European equity ETFs, while U.S. physical gold ETFs saw $5 billion in inflows over the past month.Although the S&P 500 index rebounded on March 14, it remains down 4.13% year-to-date. Meanwhile, European stock markets continue to rise. Goldman Sachs has warned that each additional 5 percentage points in U.S. tariffs could reduce S&P 500 companies' earnings per share (EPS) by 1–2%. With additional tariff hikes expected next month, market volatility is likely to persist.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
4 months ago
0
0
Indicators Predicting a U.S. Recession (Mar 14, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
4 months ago
0
0
Indicators Predicting a U.S. Recession (Mar 14, 2025)
Discussions of a potential recession are circulating everywhere, fueled by tariffs, government job cuts, budget reductions, and immigration restrictions. Any one of these factors alone could temporarily burden the economy, but together, they create simultaneous pressures across multiple sectors, potentially causing severe economic damage. White House officials have warned that, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated, the economy may require a "detox period." At the same time, Donald Trump’s promised deregulation and large-scale tax cuts are being positively received by many businesses, as they could stimulate investment and hiring.Key economic data has yet to fully reflect the effects of Trump’s presidency. The Wall Street Journal is tracking various indicators to determine whether the U.S. can avoid a recession or is heading toward one. Several notable signs focus on businesses, consumers, and workers.Businesses Are No Longer Talking About a 'Soft Landing'The phrase “soft landing” has significantly decreased in corporate discussions. During the last three months of 2024, the term was mentioned 61 times in U.S. corporate earnings calls, but since early this year, it has appeared only 7 times.While executives avoid publicly criticizing Trump’s policies, a March CEO survey showed that business confidence for the next 12 months had fallen to its lowest level since November 2012.Instead, tariffs have become a major topic. Mentions of tariffs in S&P 1500 earnings calls surged from 49 times in Q1 2024 to 683 times in Q1 2025.The Small Business Optimism Index declined in February, though it remains above average. However, the Uncertainty Index has reached its second-highest level in history, indicating that businesses find it increasingly difficult to predict policy changes.Consumers Across All Income Levels Are Reducing SpendingDue to economic concerns, consumers are cutting back on spending in all categories.According to a University of Michigan survey, the Consumer Sentiment Index has fallen to its lowest level since November 2022, showing a consistent decline across all age groups, education levels, incomes, political affiliations, and geographic regions.Consumers are making fewer impulse purchases at gas stations, while Walmart shoppers increasingly opt for smaller package sizes toward the end of the month.Sales of discount alcoholic beverages are rising, while luxury goods purchases are declining.Airfare sales are slowing, particularly in same-day bookings, as businesses scale back travel budgets and domestic leisure travelers delay trips due to higher costs.Small businesses in immigrant communities report a decline in consumer spending, partly due to fear of mass deportations under Trump’s administration. Hispanic consumer foot traffic has also fallen, impacting major retailers.Workers Are Feeling Increasingly UncertainThe labor market remains strong, with the February unemployment rate at 4.1%, but job cuts and corporate cost-cutting are raising concerns among workers.A New York Fed survey found that concern over rising unemployment jumped from 34% in January to 39.4% in February.A Glassdoor survey reported that employee optimism about their employers has dropped to its lowest level since 2016.In February, U.S. companies announced 172,017 layoffs, the highest level since July 2020. While government job cuts played a role, private-sector layoffs more than doubled.Unemployment Insurance Claims May Be the Best Early IndicatorWhile overall jobless claims remain low, they have surged in Washington, D.C., Virginia, and Maryland, rising 49% year-over-year.Federal employee jobless claims are also increasing as government budget cuts impact contractors reliant on public sector spending.Companies linked to U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and other federal programs face increasing financial strain due to funding reductions.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
4 months ago
0
0
OECD Lowers Global Growth Forecast… South Korea’s GDP Outlook Cut from 2.1% to 1.5% (Mar 18, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
4 months ago
0
0
OECD Lowers Global Growth Forecast… South Korea’s GDP Outlook Cut from 2.1% to 1.5% (Mar 18, 2025)
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has revised South Korea’s economic growth forecast for this year from 2.1% to 1.5%, marking a 0.6 percentage point reduction. The primary reason behind this downgrade appears to be the global economic slowdown driven by escalating trade barriers. The OECD also lowered its global growth projections for this year to 3.1% and for next year to 3.0%, down 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, compared to its December forecast.The OECD attributed the slowdown to tariff wars led by the U.S., which have disrupted global supply chains, adding pressure on investments and household consumption worldwide. Countries with high trade exposure to the U.S. have been hit particularly hard, with growth forecasts for Canada (0.7%) and Mexico (-1.3%) seeing significant cuts. South Korea, due to its trade-dependent economy, was also among the nations experiencing substantial downward revisions.Meanwhile, the U.S. growth forecast was lowered from 2.4% to 2.2%, Japan from 1.5% to 1.1%, and Germany from 0.7% to 0.4%. In contrast, China’s growth projection was raised slightly from 4.7% to 4.8%, with the OECD noting that policy support has helped mitigate the negative effects of trade barriers.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
4 months ago
0
0
The Impact of ChatGPT on AI-Themed Cryptocurrencies (Feb 7, 2023)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
4 months ago
0
0
The Impact of ChatGPT on AI-Themed Cryptocurrencies (Feb 7, 2023)
The ChatGPT Effect on AI-Themed CryptocurrenciesThis study examines the impact of ChatGPT on the returns of AI-themed cryptocurrency assets. It analyzes the abnormal return fluctuations of AI-related cryptocurrencies following the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022 and investigates whether the increased interest in ChatGPT has influenced the cryptocurrency market.Key Research Methods:Data Collection: Price data of 10 AI-themed cryptocurrency assets selected by CoinDesk and Bitcoin price data were collected.AI Cryptocurrency Index: An equal-weighted AI cryptocurrency index was created using 10 AI-themed tokens.Event Study Methodology: The launch of ChatGPT was set as an event, and abnormal returns before and after the event were analyzed.Statistical Testing: The Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to verify the statistical significance of the results.Key Findings:1. The Effect of ChatGPT’s Launch:Abnormal Return (AR): On the launch day of ChatGPT, AI-themed tokens recorded an average abnormal return of 2.71%, which was statistically significant. This indicates that the event had an immediate and positive impact on the AI-themed cryptocurrency market. Abnormal return refers to the additional gain obtained by individual cryptocurrencies beyond the overall market movement.Intensified Interest: On days 8 and 9 after the launch, abnormal returns surged to 5.6% and 22.59%, respectively. This suggests that as awareness of ChatGPT spread, investor interest in AI-themed cryptocurrencies intensified.2. Cumulative Abnormal Return (CAR):Short-term Impact: One week after ChatGPT's launch, the AI cryptocurrency index increased by 18.26%, and within two weeks, it surged by 41.68%. This indicates that ChatGPT's release provided a strong short-term momentum for the AI-themed cryptocurrency market.Widespread Gains: 90% of the analyzed AI-themed tokens experienced positive abnormal returns after the launch. This suggests that the ChatGPT effect was not limited to specific tokens but was a widespread phenomenon across the AI-themed cryptocurrency market.3. Divergence from Bitcoin:Bitcoin Decline: While AI-themed cryptocurrencies benefited from the launch of ChatGPT, Bitcoin experienced a downtrend.Market Segmentation: This indicates that the cryptocurrency market is no longer moving as a single unit but is reacting differently based on specific themes or narratives. AI-themed cryptocurrencies are now being recognized as an independent asset class with a unique investment story separate from Bitcoin.4. The Role of Signaling Theory:Quality Signal: The emergence of ChatGPT and advancements in AI technology act as quality signals that enhance investor confidence in AI-themed cryptocurrency assets, driving up prices.Confirmed Patterns: Investors respond to economic indicators that provide embedded information about market trends.Reduction of Information Asymmetry: By lowering the cost of information dissemination and interpretation, more investors are encouraged to participate.Overall Implications:The launch of ChatGPT can be interpreted as a significant event that positively impacted the AI-themed cryptocurrency market. Investors have recognized the potential of ChatGPT and AI technology, leading to increased investments in related crypto assets. However, these results may be short-term, and long-term performance will likely be influenced by other factors such as regulatory changes, technological advancements, and market maturity.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Can ChatGPT Be Used for Retirement Planning? (May 1, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Can ChatGPT Be Used for Retirement Planning? (May 1, 2025)
Generative AI and Financial AdviceThis study explores the challenges and opportunities of using large language models (LLMs) in financial advisory services. Specifically, it examines whether LLMs like ChatGPT can perform the role of a professional financial planner and identifies the ethical and technical considerations required for their effective use. While LLMs face significant challenges in domain expertise, personalized advice, trustworthiness, and regulatory compliance, they also have the potential to democratize financial services and provide more people with high-quality financial guidance.Key Points1. The Role and Challenges of Financial PlannersFinancial Guidance: Financial planners must understand an individual's financial situation, set investment goals, and develop long-term strategies beyond simple product recommendations.Ethical Responsibility: They must prioritize the client's best interests, disclose potential conflicts of interest, and ensure data privacy.Emotional Support: Financial decisions are often influenced by emotions. Advisors help clients manage anxiety and make rational investment decisions.Regulatory Compliance: Financial professionals must stay updated on evolving regulations and provide clients with appropriate legal and tax-related advice.2. Potential of LLMs in Financial AdvisoryInformation Processing: LLMs can analyze large amounts of financial data, identify market trends, and summarize complex financial products for investors.Personalized Advice: LLMs can process financial data to suggest optimized investment strategies based on an individual's goals and risk tolerance.Democratization of Financial Services: AI-powered robo-advisors can provide cost-effective financial advice, making high-quality advisory services more accessible.3. Limitations of LLMsEthical Concerns: AI trained on biased data may provide unfair or discriminatory financial advice. The lack of transparency in decision-making increases the risk of blind trust in AI-generated advice.Unclear Accountability: If an investor incurs losses due to AI-generated advice, it is unclear who is legally responsible.Accuracy and Timeliness: LLMs are trained on past data and may not reflect the latest market conditions. Their generated insights are not always accurate or reliable.Lack of Emotional Connection: AI struggles to provide the human empathy and trust-building necessary for effective financial planning.4. Improving LLMs for Financial AdvisoryEnhancing Domain Expertise: LLMs need better financial market training, integrating expert knowledge to improve decision-making.Eliminating Bias: AI models must identify and remove biases while ensuring fair decision-making processes.Ethical Decision-Making: LLMs should be trained to prioritize clients' best interests and follow ethical financial practices.Explainability: AI should clearly justify its recommendations so investors can make informed decisions.Emotional Intelligence: AI models should be developed to recognize investor sentiment and provide appropriate responses.LLMs have the potential to transform financial advisory services, but ethical concerns and safety measures must be addressed. While AI cannot fully replace human experts, collaboration between humans and AI can enhance financial guidance and improve accessibility to investment planning.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Can ChatGPT Forecast Stock Price Movements? (Apr 14, 2024)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Can ChatGPT Forecast Stock Price Movements? (Apr 14, 2024)
A recent study, Can ChatGPT Forecast Stock Price Movements?, examines whether large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT can predict stock price movements based on news headlines. The findings reveal that ChatGPT-generated sentiment scores significantly forecast next-day stock returns in out-of-sample testing. The predictive power is stronger for small-cap stocks and those with negative news, suggesting that LLMs are particularly effective at interpreting complex or underreported financial information. The study also proposes that widespread LLM adoption could improve market efficiency, reducing arbitrage opportunities over time.MethodologyData Collection:Gathered U.S. stock market news headlines and daily returns from October 2021 to December 2023.ChatGPT Sentiment Analysis:Used ChatGPT to classify headlines as positive, negative, or neutral.Portfolio Construction:Built long-short portfolios based on ChatGPT sentiment scores.Regression Analysis:Controlled for factors such as news complexity, company size, and industry effects.Out-of-Sample Predictability:Tested whether ChatGPT scores could predict next-day stock returns, assessing their economic value in real-world trading.Key Findings1. ChatGPT’s Sentiment Scores Predict Stock ReturnsChatGPT’s sentiment scores are statistically significant predictors of next-day returns.Stocks with positive sentiment scores tend to rise, while those with negative sentiment decline.2. Stronger Predictability for Small-Cap Stocks & Negative NewsSmall-cap stocks exhibit stronger predictability, likely due to less analyst coverage and higher information asymmetry.Negative news drives sharper price movements, suggesting that ChatGPT effectively captures downside risk.3. Model Complexity MattersLarger LLMs show better predictive accuracy, as they can decode complex financial narratives more effectively.4. LLM Adoption May Improve Market EfficiencyAs more investors use LLM-based analytics, information asymmetries could diminish, making it harder to exploit sentiment-based predictions.This suggests that ChatGPT’s edge in predicting stock returns may erode over time as LLMs become standard tools in financial markets.The study confirms that ChatGPT is a valuable tool for analyzing news sentiment and predicting stock price movements, particularly in small-cap and negative-news scenarios. However, as LLMs become widely adopted, their ability to generate alpha may decline, reinforcing their role in enhancing market efficiency rather than sustaining arbitrage opportunities.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
4 months ago
0
0
Global Dairy Prices Hit 2-Year High, Pressuring South Korean Food Industry (Mar 16, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
4 months ago
0
0
Global Dairy Prices Hit 2-Year High, Pressuring South Korean Food Industry (Mar 16, 2025)
Rising global dairy prices are increasing cost pressures on South Korea’s food industry. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the Global Dairy Price Index reached 148.7 last month, the highest level since October 2022 (149.2). After hitting a low of 112.0 in September 2023, dairy prices have surged 23.2% year-over-year and 4.0% month-over-month.The primary driver behind this price increase is declining milk production in Oceania. Given that South Korea’s dairy self-sufficiency rate is only 44%, the industry remains heavily dependent on imports for essential dairy products like cheese and cream. Furthermore, the Korean won remains weak at around 1,450 per U.S. dollar, raising import costs even further.As a result, domestic food manufacturers are considering price hikes. Industry insiders report that in addition to rising dairy costs, companies are also facing higher packaging and processing expenses, particularly for products containing coffee and cocoa, which are already experiencing cost inflation.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
4 months ago
0
0
Carbon Tax Expansion: Disrupting Global Trade? (Mar 17, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
4 months ago
0
0
Carbon Tax Expansion: Disrupting Global Trade? (Mar 17, 2025)
Carbon taxes are emerging as a key variable in global trade dynamics. The European Union (EU) plans to fully implement the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2025, ending its transition phase by the end of this year. In response, the United States is considering the Clean Competition Act and the Foreign Pollution Fee Act (FPFA), while several states have already adopted Emissions Trading Systems (ETS). According to the World Bank, 39 countries currently impose carbon taxes, while 36 nations operate ETS programs.Carbon tariffs function as de facto import duties, triggering trade tensions. CBAM, in particular, places the carbon tax burden on importers, raising concerns about reduced industrial competitiveness. Emerging economies such as China, India, and Brazil have labeled CBAM a protectionist measure and proposed formal discussions at COP29. India, for instance, argues that CBAM could add a 20–35% cost burden on its steel and aluminum sectors, leading to strong opposition.For corporations, carbon intensity management and supply chain optimization are becoming business imperatives. Under CBAM, when product-level emissions data is insufficient, the average emission factor of the country of origin is applied. Similarly, the FPFA may impose additional costs if the reliability of emissions data is questionable. As a result, carbon reduction is now a competitive necessity, and companies must optimize supply chains to mitigate rising carbon costs. [Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Fund Performance Driven by ChatGPT: Evidence from the Chinese Fund Market (May 24, 2024)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Fund Performance Driven by ChatGPT: Evidence from the Chinese Fund Market (May 24, 2024)
A recent study, Fund Performance Driven by ChatGPT: Evidence from the Chinese Fund Market, examines the impact of ChatGPT-related news on China’s fund market despite the model’s unavailability in the country. The research investigates how financial news mentioning ChatGPT influences fund inflows, excess returns, and Sharpe ratios in China’s equity fund sector.MethodologyData Collection:Analyzed Chinese equity fund data from September 1, 2022, to February 16, 2023.Identifying ChatGPT-Related Funds:Defined ChatGPT-related funds as those holding at least one ChatGPT-concept stock.Difference-in-Differences (DID) Regression:Compared Sharpe ratios and excess returns before and after ChatGPT’s launch between:Treatment group (ChatGPT-related funds)Control group (other public funds)Mechanism Analysis:Assessed whether fund inflows and ChatGPT-concept stock performance were key drivers of fund outperformance.Heterogeneity Analysis:Examined differences in fund reactions based on:Ownership structure (state-owned, foreign, private)Investment style (growth, balanced, value funds)Key Findings1. ChatGPT-Related Funds Outperformed Post-LaunchFollowing ChatGPT’s release, ChatGPT-related funds saw significant improvements in both Sharpe ratios and excess returns.Investor enthusiasm for AI and technology themes fueled this performance.2. Fund Inflows & Concept Stock EffectThe positive market reaction was driven by:Increased fund inflows into ChatGPT-related funds.Surging excess returns of ChatGPT-concept stocks, reinforcing the thematic investment trend.3. Ownership Structure DifferencesState-owned enterprise (SOE) funds showed the strongest reaction to ChatGPT news.Foreign-owned (FOE) and private equity (PE) funds responded less aggressively.4. Investment Style VariationsGrowth and balanced funds benefited from ChatGPT news, while value funds showed little impact.This suggests that technology-driven thematic investing appeals more to growth-oriented strategies.Despite ChatGPT being unavailable in China, news surrounding its development boosted investor sentiment and fund performance in the Chinese market. This highlights how thematic investing and AI-driven narratives influence fund inflows and stock price movements, even in markets with restricted AI access.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
ChatGPT and DeepSeek: Can They Predict the Stock Market and Macroeconomy? (Feb 13, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
ChatGPT and DeepSeek: Can They Predict the Stock Market and Macroeconomy? (Feb 13, 2025)
A recent study, ChatGPT and DeepSeek: Can They Predict the Stock Market and Macroeconomy?, investigates whether large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT-3.5 and DeepSeek-R1 can predict stock market returns and macroeconomic trends by analyzing Wall Street Journal (WSJ) headlines.Key findings reveal that ChatGPT-3.5 demonstrates predictive power by capturing delayed investor reactions to positive news, whereas DeepSeek and smaller models like BERT show weaker forecasting ability due to their training limitations.MethodologyData Collection: Headlines from WSJ front-page articles (1996–2022).Sentiment Analysis: ChatGPT-3.5 and DeepSeek-R1 classify headlines as positive, neutral, or negative.Regression Analysis:Monthly positive news ratio (NRG) and negative news ratio (NRB) are used as independent variables.Stock market returns and macroeconomic indicators are dependent variables.Robustness Testing: Uses ChatGPT-4, fine-tuning, and alternative prompts to validate results.Key Findings1. ChatGPT-3.5’s Market Predictive AbilityPositive News Ratio (NRG) as a Predictor:Higher NRG predicts higher stock returns in the following months.Regression analysis shows NRG has a 0.53% coefficient on next-month stock returns (statistically significant at 5% level).R-squared increases to 8.52% for 12-month predictions, indicating stronger long-term effects.Delayed Market Reaction to Positive News:Investors fail to immediately incorporate positive news, leading to a gradual price adjustment.Limited Impact of Negative News (NRB):Negative news is priced in immediately, showing no predictive power for future returns.2. Economic Conditions & News ImpactNRG is More Predictive During Recessions:During economic downturns, positive news is often undervalued, making it a stronger signal for future stock movements.Novelty Effect:ChatGPT identifies more unique, impactful news—reinforcing its ability to detect high-value information.Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) Interaction:In times of high policy uncertainty, ChatGPT’s predictions improve as investors struggle to interpret complex economic signals.3. Comparing ChatGPT to Other AI ModelsDeepSeek’s Limitations:DeepSeek, despite being structurally similar to ChatGPT, performs worse due to less training on English financial news.BERT’s Weak Performance:Traditional models like BERT fail to capture nuanced financial signals, making them less effective in market prediction.4. Methodological ConsiderationsPrompt Engineering Effects:Different prompts for sentiment classification can affect results.Data Period Dependency:Findings are based on 1996–2022 data, meaning different periods could yield different results.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Performance of Technical Trading Rules: Evidence from the Crude Oil Market (Sep 24, 2019)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Performance of Technical Trading Rules: Evidence from the Crude Oil Market (Sep 24, 2019)
A recent study, Performance of Technical Trading Rules: Evidence from the Crude Oil Market, examines the effectiveness of technical trading rules in the crude oil market. The study applies 7,846 technical trading rules from Sullivan et al. (1999) to WTI crude oil futures and the USO fund, using k-FWER and FDR techniques to mitigate data snooping bias.Key findings reveal that while some trading rules show predictive power, their profitability is not persistent over time. Temporary inefficiencies exist, allowing for short-term gains, but long-term excess returns are not sustainable.MethodologyData: Daily price data for WTI crude oil futures and the USO fund from 2006 onward.Technical Trading Rules: 7,846 rules categorized into five types:1) Filter rules2) Moving averages3) Support & resistance levels4) Channel breakouts5) On-Balance Volume (OBV) averagesPerformance Evaluation: Measured using average returns, Sharpe ratio, and Calmar ratio.Data Snooping Bias Control: Applied k-FWER (Romano & Wolf, 2007) and FDR (Bajgrowicz & Scaillet, 2012) to prevent overfitting.Key Findings1. In-Sample Performance (Ignoring Transaction Costs)High Predictive Power: During periods of high crude oil volatility, more than half of the technical trading rules exhibit strong predictive power.Top Strategies:Momentum-based strategies tend to capture sharp price movements.The best-performing rules show high Sharpe and Calmar ratios, indicating strong past profitability.2. In-Sample Performance (Including Transaction Costs)Profitability Decline:Once transaction costs are factored in, many rules lose profitability.Strategies that involve frequent trades are hit hardest by costs.Surviving Rules:A small subset of strategies still outperforms a simple buy-and-hold strategy even after accounting for trading costs.Calmar Ratio as a Selection Metric:The Calmar ratio helps identify rules that balance profitability and drawdown control, making them more sustainable.3. Data Snooping Bias & Robustness TestsReality Check Test: Applying White’s Reality Check (BRC) confirms that some top-performing rules fail statistical significance tests.k-FWER & FDR Adjustments: These techniques filter out overfitted rules, ensuring only genuinely effective strategies remain.4. Out-of-Sample Performance (Future Data Testing)Lack of Persistence:Rules that performed well in historical data fail to maintain strong performance in future data.This suggests that technical trading rules are not consistently reliable over time.Short-Term Opportunities:Some short-term profitable opportunities exist, but their significance is limited.5. Differences Between Crude Oil Futures and USODistinct Market Structures:The optimal rules differ between crude oil futures and USO, highlighting market-specific trading dynamics.Roll-over effects in USO introduce structural differences affecting trading rule performance.6. Best-Performing Trading Rule TypesChanging Preferences: The most effective trading rules shift when transaction costs are included.Key Rule Types:Support/resistance levels, channel breakouts, and OBV-based rules are the most effective in capturing crude oil market patterns.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Mean-Variance Optimal VWAP Trading (Apr 16, 2012)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Mean-Variance Optimal VWAP Trading (Apr 16, 2012)
A recent study, Mean Variance Optimal VWAP Trading, analyzes Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) trading strategies from a mean-variance optimization perspective. Institutional investors frequently use VWAP strategies to minimize execution costs when executing large trades. This paper develops a framework for deriving the optimal VWAP trading strategy, assuming that the final total trading volume is known.The key finding is that an optimal VWAP strategy can be decomposed into two components:A minimum-variance VWAP hedging strategy, which ensures minimal deviation from VWAP.A price "directional" strategy, which operates independently of VWAP and seeks additional returns based on market trends.The study further suggests that VWAP traders can maximize profitability by increasing the scale of directional trades when handling large execution volumes.MethodologyPrice Process Modeling: Assumes that asset prices follow a continuous-time semimartingale process.Deriving the Optimal VWAP Strategy: Uses a mean-variance optimization framework to separate the minimum-variance hedging strategy from the directional strategy.Simplified Model Assumption: Assumes independence between price and final trading volume to simplify the model.Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) Case Study: Explores an optimal VWAP strategy when price follows a GBM process and is independent of final volume.Key Findings1. Structure of the Optimal VWAP StrategyMinimum Variance VWAP Hedging Strategy:This strategy focuses on minimizing execution risk by closely tracking VWAP while maintaining a market-neutral position.The goal is to execute trades as close to VWAP as possible while reducing price variance exposure.This approach is critical for institutional investors executing large orders while minimizing market impact.Price "Directional" Strategy:Unlike the hedging strategy, this component seeks additional returns by leveraging market price movements.Instead of strictly following VWAP, traders adjust execution based on their market outlook.This strategy is useful for active traders aiming to capture alpha beyond standard VWAP execution.2. Risk Aversion and Trade Size Trade-OffRisk Aversion Parameter (λ):Determines how much a trader prioritizes risk reduction over potential returns.Risk-averse traders prefer strategies that minimize execution risk.Risk-seeking traders may take on greater directional exposure to increase expected returns.Trade Size (β):Represents the trader’s share of total market volume.Larger trade sizes lead to greater market impact, allowing traders to exploit their influence to enhance profits.Optimal execution strategies depend on balancing risk tolerance with market impact considerations.The study highlights that as trade size increases, the importance of directional strategies also grows, offering traders greater profit potential at the cost of higher risk.3. Mathematical Framework & InterpretationContinuous-Time Model:Uses stochastic calculus (Ito integrals) to model the continuous evolution of price and volume in a VWAP strategy.More accurately reflects real-world execution dynamics than discrete models.Semimartingale Price Process:Captures different market behaviors, including mean-reverting trends and momentum-driven price movements.Variance Optimal Martingale Measure (VOMM):A technique for selecting a risk-neutral probability measure, ensuring that risk is appropriately reflected in execution strategies.4. Case Study: VWAP Optimization Under Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM)Assumes price and total traded volume are independent.The optimal VWAP strategy follows:Vt,∞,F∗=VtE[VT∣Ft]V^*_{t, \infty, F} = \frac{V_t}{E[V_T | F_t]}Vt,∞,F∗​=E[VT​∣Ft​]Vt​​Interpretation:Traders should increase execution intensity when observed volume is below expectations and reduce execution when volume is higher than expected.This ensures execution remains closely aligned with VWAP while optimizing trade timing.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Technical Trading Rules in Emerging Stock Markets (Feb 5, 2012)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Technical Trading Rules in Emerging Stock Markets (Feb 5, 2012)
A recent study, Technical Trading Rules in Emerging Stock Markets, investigates the effectiveness of technical analysis in emerging markets. While the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) suggests that technical trading rules should not generate excess returns, market inefficiencies may still create profitable opportunities. This study examines 34 emerging markets to determine whether technical trading strategies can outperform a simple buy-and-hold strategy.To ensure robust results, the study applies White’s Reality Check and Hansen’s Superior Predictive Ability (SPA) test to evaluate performance while adjusting for data snooping bias and transaction costs.MethodologyData: Stock market indices from 34 emerging economies, classified by the IMF.Technical Trading Strategies: A selection of 13 trading systems, including moving averages, filter rules, channel breakouts, and momentum oscillators, based on prior research (e.g., Lukac, Brorsen, and Irwin, 1988).Performance Evaluation: Uses Reality Check and SPA tests to compare technical trading rules against a buy-and-hold strategy.Adjustment for Data Snooping & Transaction Costs: The study incorporates transaction costs and statistical corrections to account for potential overfitting in strategy selection.Key FindingsAfter controlling for data snooping bias and transaction costs, the study finds that technical trading rules generate statistically significant profits in only 4 out of 34 countries. It also provides evidence that trading algorithms performed better during economic crises, suggesting that market inefficiencies arise under specific conditions.1. Alexander Filter RuleFinding: When transaction costs are excluded, the Alexander Filter Rule ranks among the most profitable strategies in emerging markets. The 0.5% filter size, 2-day Bollinger Bands, and 3-day RSI frequently appear in the top 10 strategies.Explanation: The Alexander Filter Rule triggers a buy signal when prices rise above a recent low by a set percentage and a sell signal when they fall below a recent high by the same percentage.Smaller filter sizes result in more frequent trades, while larger filter sizes reduce trade frequency.Emerging markets tend to be more volatile, often exhibiting clear trends, which may explain why this rule is effective.2. Long-Term vs. Short-Term Trading in MexicoFinding: In Mexico, long-term trading generated an average return of 3.47%, significantly higher than the 0.20% return from short-term trading.Explanation: Mexico’s stock market exhibited an overall upward trend during the study period.Long-term traders benefited from sustained market growth.Short-term traders faced higher transaction costs, reducing net profits.Emerging markets tend to be highly volatile, making short-term trading less profitable.3. The Impact of Data Snooping BiasFinding: If data snooping bias is not accounted for, technical trading rules appear highly profitable.Correction Effect: After applying Reality Check and SPA tests, most apparent gains disappear.Implication: Strategies optimized for past data often fail in real-world trading.Rules that performed well historically may not work in future markets due to changing conditions.4. Effectiveness of Technical Trading During CrisesFinding: During economic crises, short-term trading strategies tend to outperform long-term strategies.Short-term position holding periods increase in crisis conditions.Explanation: Bear markets create more short-selling opportunities, and high volatility generates frequent trading signals.Technical analysis can be more effective in highly unstable markets, but consistent long-term profitability remains challenging.Conclusion: The study ultimately states that "achieving consistent profits through technical analysis remains extremely difficult."[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Determining Optimal Trading Rules Without Backtesting (Sep 12, 2015)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Determining Optimal Trading Rules Without Backtesting (Sep 12, 2015)
A recent study, Determining Optimal Trading Rules Without Backtesting, challenges the conventional reliance on backtesting for optimizing trading strategies. The paper argues that overfitting in backtesting can lead to misleadingly strong performance during testing but poor real-world results. To address this issue, the study proposes a new methodology for determining Optimal Trading Rules (OTR) without backtesting.Instead of using a backtesting engine, the methodology builds on alternative modeling techniques and presents empirical evidence that an optimal solution exists when prices follow a discrete Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (O-U) process. The study then demonstrates how to numerically compute this optimal trading rule.MethodologyThe proposed OTR framework follows these steps:Price Process Modeling: Assumes that asset prices follow a discrete Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (O-U) process, which exhibits mean-reverting properties, meaning prices tend to revert to a long-term average.Model Parameter Estimation: Estimates key parameters of the O-U process (e.g., mean reversion speed, volatility) using historical price data.Profit and Loss Targets: Defines stop-loss and profit-taking levels with various combinations.Monte Carlo Simulation: Simulates price trajectories using the estimated parameters and applies different stop-loss and profit-taking rules to calculate returns.Sharpe Ratio Optimization: Computes the Sharpe ratio for each combination and selects the trading rule that maximizes risk-adjusted returns as the optimal strategy.Key Findings & Case StudiesThe study’s primary contribution is demonstrating that optimal trading rules can be derived without backtesting under certain market conditions. Specifically, when prices follow an O-U process, selecting specific stop-loss and profit-taking levels leads to an optimal strategy.1. Case: Long-Term Equilibrium at Zero (Market Makers)This scenario represents liquidity providers such as market makers.When the half-life of mean reversion is short (i.e., prices revert quickly), the optimal strategy is to use tight profit-taking levels and wider stop-loss levels.This approach secures small but frequent gains while tolerating temporary losses.The model shows that in this case, the Sharpe ratio can reach up to 3.2, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns.2. Case: Long-Term Equilibrium Above Zero (Hedge Funds & Asset Managers)This scenario applies to investors holding long-term positions.Since positions have a higher probability of being profitable, the profit-taking threshold is set higher compared to market makers.3. Case: Long-Term Equilibrium Below Zero (Risk-Averse Traders)This scenario applies to traders aiming to minimize losses and exit positions quickly.The strategy prioritizes early exits on losing trades to protect capital.For each scenario, the study visualizes the Sharpe ratio across different stop-loss and profit-taking levels using heat maps, enabling traders to intuitively identify the optimal trading rule based on market conditions.This research presents a novel approach to avoiding backtesting overfitting and developing more robust trading strategies. While it was previously assumed that backtesting was necessary for optimizing trading rules, this study demonstrates that under certain conditions, an optimal strategy can be determined theoretically.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Predicting Economic Events with Relevance: A New Statistical Framework (Mar 10, 2021)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Predicting Economic Events with Relevance: A New Statistical Framework (Mar 10, 2021)
A recent study, RELEVANCE, introduces a new statistical concept called Relevance and explores its applications in predictive modeling. The paper presents a mathematical framework that integrates Relevance, regression analysis, and event studies, demonstrating how this approach can enhance forecasting accuracy. Using empirical examples, the authors illustrate how Relevance can be applied to economic, financial, and political predictions.Key Concepts of RelevanceDefinition: Relevance measures the importance of an observation for making predictions, based on two key components:Similarity: How closely past observations resemble the current situation.Informativeness: How much an observation deviates from the average scenario—unusual observations provide more information.Mahalanobis Distance: A statistical measure that accounts for variance and correlations between variables to quantify Similarity and Informativeness.Applications of RelevancePartial Sample Regression: Instead of using the entire dataset, this method focuses on a subset of observations with high Relevance, improving prediction accuracy.Traditional regression models treat all data points equally, but in reality, observations with higher Relevance may be more informative for forecasting.Empirical Findings1. U.S. Presidential Election Prediction (Time-Series Regression)The model was tested on the 2008 and 2016 U.S. presidential elections.Relevance-based regression outperformed traditional models, particularly in 2016, when conventional methods failed to predict the outcome.2. Corporate Similarity Analysis (Cross-Sectional Regression)Applied to S&P 500 companies, the model identified firms with unexpected but statistically significant similarities.For example, Delta Airlines showed a strong similarity with financial firms, a connection that would be difficult to detect through traditional analysis.3. Interest Rate Prediction Under Monetary Policy Shifts (Event Study)When predicting interest rate movements following expansionary and contractionary monetary policy changes,The Relevance-weighted event study outperformed traditional event studies by focusing on past events most similar to the current economic environment.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
4 months ago
0
0
South Korea’s Millennials & Gen Z Are Giving Up on Job Hunting at Record Rates (Mar 16, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
4 months ago
0
0
South Korea’s Millennials & Gen Z Are Giving Up on Job Hunting at Record Rates (Mar 16, 2025)
South Korea’s job market is losing momentum, with employment rates falling and unemployment rising. As of February, the number of young people effectively out of work—including active job seekers and those preparing to enter the workforce—hit 1.2 million, an increase of 70,000 from the previous year. What was once a challenge primarily for younger job seekers is now spreading into the 30s age group, pointing to a deeper structural issue.A particularly alarming trend is the surge in 30-somethings who have completely stopped looking for work, classified as those who "just took a break." In February, this group grew to 316,000, up 14,000 from the previous year—setting a new record since data collection began in 2003. This marks six consecutive months of increase, with their share of the 30s age group exceeding 4.5%, the highest ever recorded.A deeper look into unemployment among 30-somethings reveals that most are not first-time job seekers. As of last year, only 3,000 had never worked before, while 147,000 had prior work experience. This suggests that the rise in job abandonment isn’t just about companies preferring experienced workers—it’s more likely driven by job mismatches and a lack of quality employment opportunities. Many in this group appear to have resigned from previous jobs but struggled to find suitable new positions, ultimately dropping out of the labor force.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
The Bubble Clock Is Ticking (Jan 7, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
The Bubble Clock Is Ticking (Jan 7, 2025)
Howard Marks outlines the three psychological phases of a market bubble, explaining how investor sentiment shifts over time. His analysis suggests that the current U.S. stock market is exhibiting late-stage bubble characteristics, driven by extreme valuation concentration in a handful of large-cap tech stocks.1. The Three Phases of a BubbleEarly Stage (Post-Crash Pessimism)Market sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish following a downturn.Only a select few contrarian investors recognize potential recovery.Asset prices remain undervalued, as optimism is virtually absent.Growth Stage (Recovery & Confidence)Economic indicators improve, and investor confidence builds.The market rises as corporate earnings and economic conditions strengthen.Investors begin to believe in sustained growth, reinforcing bullish sentiment.Mania Stage (Irrational Exuberance)Widespread overconfidence and speculation drive stock prices to extreme levels.Fear of missing out (FOMO) leads novice investors to rush into the market.Investors dismiss traditional valuation metrics, believing "prices can only go up."2. Signs of a Bubble in the Current MarketMarks references Michael Cembalest (J.P. Morgan) to highlight several concerning trends:Market Concentration:The top 7 tech stocks ("Magnificent Seven") now account for 33% of S&P 500’s market cap, surpassing the 2000 dot-com bubble peak (23%).U.S. stocks dominate the MSCI World Index, exceeding 70%—a historical high.Excessive Valuations & Momentum:The S&P 500 surged 26% in 2023 and 25% in 2024, despite rising interest rates.High long-term bond yields and corporate earnings growth support markets for now, but unsustainable valuations remain a red flag.ConclusionThe U.S. equity market exhibits clear signs of late-stage bubble dynamics, with extreme concentration, high valuations, and speculative behavior. While strong earnings and liquidity have prevented a crash, investors must be cautious, as past bubbles have shown that market sentiment can shift suddenly and violently.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
"Great Powers, Geopolitics, and the Future of Trade" (Jan 1, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
"Great Powers, Geopolitics, and the Future of Trade" (Jan 1, 2025)
This report analyzes how geopolitical tensions, economic nationalism, and national security concerns are reshaping global trade dynamics and provides strategic recommendations for businesses navigating this evolving landscape.Shift in Global Trade DynamicsThe world is moving away from free trade toward a system shaped by geopolitical competition and economic security concerns.The Global South (India, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa) is becoming an increasingly important player in global trade.Major Trends and PredictionsDeclining US-China Trade: Trade between China and the West is slowing, while China is strengthening ties with ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America.Rise of the Global South: Developing economies are growing rapidly, reshaping supply chains and creating new economic alliances.US Protectionism: The potential for higher tariffs and stricter trade policies under US leadership could disrupt global trade flows.Corporate Strategy in a Fragmented Trade EnvironmentDiversifying Supply Chains: Reducing dependence on a single country by expanding supplier networks and improving supply chain visibility.Strengthening Geopolitical Intelligence: Incorporating geopolitical risk analysis into capital allocation and strategic planning.Investing in Emerging Markets: Prioritizing growth regions such as the Global South to secure long-term expansion.Nearshoring & Regional Manufacturing: Establishing nearshore production in strategic locations (e.g., Mexico for US market access) to reduce logistics risks.Localized Market Strategies: Developing region-specific business models instead of one-size-fits-all global approaches.Businesses must proactively adapt to geopolitical shifts by restructuring supply chains, exploring new markets, and leveraging technology to maintain competitive advantages. Flexibility and strategic foresight are critical for long-term success in an increasingly uncertain global trade environment.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Financial Markets and the Real Economy: A Statistical Field Perspective on Capital Allocation and Accumulation (May 6, 2022)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Financial Markets and the Real Economy: A Statistical Field Perspective on Capital Allocation and Accumulation (May 6, 2022)
This study presents a formal model for understanding the complex interactions between financial markets and the real economy, particularly focusing on capital allocation and accumulation dynamics.Sectoral Capital AllocationThe number of firms in each sector depends on total financial capital invested and expected long-term returns.Investors tend to allocate more capital to sectors with higher expected returns.Capital Accumulation PatternsShort-term & long-term profitability drive sectoral capital accumulation.Capital inflows tend to favor sectors with relatively higher returns compared to adjacent sectors.Three Major Capital Accumulation PatternsLow-capital, high short-term returns (early-stage, stable industries).Medium/high-capital, mixed short- & long-term returns (active capital accumulation).High-capital, long-term return driven (potential for unlimited growth but higher instability).Expectation Formation & StabilityHigh-reactivity expectations stabilize capital distribution.Low-reactivity expectations increase market instability.Impact on the Real EconomyFluctuations in financial expectations directly influence the real economy.Excessive capital flows into specific sectors can distort economic fundamentals and increase systemic risk.This study highlights how investor sentiment and expectations shape capital flows, impacting both financial market stability and real economic outcomes.Effective regulation is essential to mitigate excessive capital concentration in speculative sectors and maintain long-term economic stability.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
The Dirt Tells No Lies (Mar 14, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
The Dirt Tells No Lies (Mar 14, 2025)
This article highlights common investor mistakes during market downturns and offers strategies for navigating volatile conditions.Key InsightsInstinct vs. Rational InvestingInvestors often let emotions drive decisions, which rarely leads to better outcomes.The Pitfalls of Traditional Financial SystemsMany financial products prioritize the seller’s profit over the investor’s success.Blindly following market trends can be dangerous.Investors Must Self-ReflectMarket downturns are an opportunity to evaluate personal biases in investment decisions.Investors should ask:Am I improving my expected outcomes?Or am I simply reacting emotionally to market noise?Randomness & UnpredictabilityMarkets are inherently volatile, and unexpected events will always occur.Reacting to uncertainty—rather than sticking to a strategy—can be detrimental.Investment Journey ≠ A Fixed PathUnlike physical paths, investing is full of randomness.Constantly changing portfolios in volatile times often leads to worse results.Expect the UnexpectedMarket surprises are inevitable—investors should be prepared, not panic.Avoid unnecessary portfolio changes that don’t enhance long-term returns.During volatile markets, emotional trading and frequent portfolio adjustments are counterproductive.Investors should focus on long-term principles, avoid impulsive changes, and prepare for uncertainty to achieve lasting success.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Recent Market Decline Is Not Just About the Trade War (Mar 12, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Recent Market Decline Is Not Just About the Trade War (Mar 12, 2025)
This analysis examines the causes behind the recent(Mar 12, 2025) market downturn and provides insights for investors.Key InsightsMarket decline is driven more by shifting investor sentiment than by tariffs.A transition from speculative assets to safe-haven assets is underway.Tariffs are not the primary cause.U.S.-China trade tensions have increased uncertainty, but the main market driver is sentiment shifts rather than direct economic damage.Tech stock weaknessThe sector is undergoing a natural correction after two years of historic gains.Valuations had become excessively stretched.Re-emerging recession concernsYield curve inversion and Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecasts have raised alarms.However, economic fundamentals remain solid according to some analyses.Speculative vs. Safe-Haven AssetsSpeculative Assets:Tech stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other high-volatility, low-cash-flow investments.Tend to rise aggressively in risk-on environments and fall sharply in risk-off periods.Safe-Haven Assets:Bonds, defensive stocks (e.g., Berkshire Hathaway), and other stable, cash-generating investments.Lower volatility and more reasonable valuations.Risk-On vs. Risk-Off DynamicsRisk-on periods: Investors favor speculative, high-growth assets.Risk-off periods: Capital flows into safe-haven assets.The current downturn reflects a broad sentiment shift rather than a fundamental collapse.Investment Outlook & StrategyMarket behavior will normalize once the risk-on/risk-off transition stabilizes.Tariff impacts may be smaller than feared.Recession risks should be monitored, but international diversification can help hedge against uncertainty.ConclusionThe recent market downturn is largely sentiment-driven rather than fundamentally driven. While volatility persists, long-term investors should focus on maintaining disciplined strategies rather than reacting emotionally.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Political Beliefs Should Not Influence Investment Decisions (Mar 7, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Political Beliefs Should Not Influence Investment Decisions (Mar 7, 2025)
"You Can’t Escape Politics. Your Investing Decisions Can."This article emphasizes that incorporating political beliefs into investment decisions does not lead to long-term success and can undermine sound investment principles. The underperformance of politically themed ETFs like the Defiance MAGA Seven ETF and ESG funds illustrates the risks of politically motivated investing.Key InsightsInvesting Based on Political Views Can Hurt ReturnsExcluding or selecting stocks based on political beliefs can negatively impact portfolio performance.Case Study: Defiance MAGA Seven ETFThis ETF focused on companies expected to benefit from Trump-era policies.Since launch, it has underperformed the S&P 500.Case Study: ESG FundsESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) funds attracted significant inflows but have delivered weaker returns than benchmarks.Inefficient Capital AllocationAvoiding certain stocks for political reasons does not directly impact those companies' capital.Publicly traded companies already have access to capital, making politically motivated investing largely symbolic.The Impact of Political PolarizationAs political views become more extreme, emotional decision-making becomes harder to avoid.However, markets do not care how investors vote—only financial fundamentals drive long-term returns.ConclusionInvesting based on political views may provide personal satisfaction, but it does not enhance returns and often undermines sound investment principles.For long-term success, investors should focus on fundamentals and remove emotions from financial decision-making.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Explaining the Valuation Gap Between U.S. and International Stocks (Mar 14, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Explaining the Valuation Gap Between U.S. and International Stocks (Mar 14, 2025)
This report analyzes the persistent valuation gap between U.S. and international equity markets, exploring why U.S.-listed companies trade at a premium and what this means for investors going forward.Valuation Disparity:U.S. stocks consistently trade at higher valuations than international stocks, sparking debate over whether this is justified.U.S. Exceptionalism vs. Mean Reversion:Some argue U.S. stocks deserve a premium due to stronger earnings growth.Others suggest the valuation gap is excessive, predicting mean reversion over time.Factors Influencing Valuations:A regression analysis of the top 1,000 global stocks examines how:Size, quality, profitability, investment style, and sector exposure impact valuations.Listing location (U.S. vs. international) and U.S. revenue exposure affect pricing.Key Findings:Higher-quality companies command higher valuations.U.S.-listed stocks trade at a premium relative to their foreign-listed counterparts.Stocks with higher U.S. revenue exposure tend to have lower valuations.Half of the valuation gap is due solely to U.S. exchange listing rather than fundamentals.Investment Strategy ImplicationsGiven that valuation gaps are largely driven by listing location, international stocks may offer better value despite lagging performance over the past decade.International stocks generally have smaller market caps and lower U.S. revenue exposure, factors that may contribute to their relative undervaluation.ConclusionThis report highlights listing location as a key driver of U.S. valuation premiums, rather than purely fundamental factors.As the valuation gap narrows over time, investors should consider increasing exposure to international markets to capitalize on potential upside.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Emerging Markets Enter a New Growth Cycle (Feb 18, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Emerging Markets Enter a New Growth Cycle (Feb 18, 2025)
"Turning Tides in Emerging Markets"This report advocates for increased investment in emerging markets, highlighting growth potential, attractive valuations, and diverse opportunities for investors looking to enhance portfolio performance.1. Key ArgumentsU.S. Stock Market Growth May SlowRising capital expenditures in the tech sector may weigh on S&P 500 earnings growth.Emerging Markets Show Renewed StrengthImproved economic policies, stronger banking systems, deleveraging, and robust corporate earnings are fueling a resurgence.Attractive Valuations vs. the U.S.MSCI Brazil (-45%) and MSCI Indonesia (-32%) trade at deep discounts based on forward P/E ratios.Diverse Investment OpportunitiesIndia (infrastructure), Indonesia (banking), Brazil (oil), and UAE (real estate) present high-growth potential.Active Asset Management is EssentialEmerging markets are complex, with country-specific risks and opportunities, requiring strategic investment approaches.2. Investment Strategy RecommendationsIdentify long-term opportunities in emerging markets.Diversify across equities, bonds, and real estate to manage risk.Avoid excessive concentration in a single country or sector.Stay informed on global economic and political shifts, adjusting strategies accordingly.3. Country-Specific InsightsIndiaStrong Economic Growth: Pro-business policies and structural reforms support continued expansion.Improved Corporate Earnings: Profitability is rising, boosting investor confidence.Large Consumer Market: India’s domestic demand-driven economy enhances resilience to global volatility.Infrastructure Boom: Government-driven infrastructure investment is a major growth driver.Valuations: Sensex P/E ratio has returned to pre-COVID levels, making it more attractive.IndonesiaPro-Business Government: Similar to India, Indonesia has a stable democracy and strong economic policies.High Dividend Yields: The stock market offers a 5% dividend yield, appealing to income investors.Banking Sector Strength: Leading banks are expected to post double-digit profit growth with 20% ROE.BrazilEconomic Recovery: After a deep recession in the 2010s, Brazil is now on an improving trajectory.Strong Dividends: The Brazilian stock market offers some of the highest yields globally.Petrobras Opportunity: The state-owned oil giant holds world-class reserves and offers double-digit dividend yields.Government Spending Risks: While fiscal expansion under Lula raises concerns, dividend payouts remain strong.UAESingapore-Like Growth Model: The UAE is transforming into a global financial hub.Investor-Friendly Policies: Pro-business reforms are enhancing the investment climate.Attractive Dividends: UAE stocks offer solid growth with stable currency conditions.Real Estate Surge: Double-digit growth in real estate makes it one of the UAE’s most promising sectors.ConclusionThe report highlights India, Indonesia, Brazil, and the UAE as top emerging market investment destinations.Each country presents distinct opportunities but also unique political and economic risks.Active asset management is crucial for navigating emerging market volatility and maximizing returns.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Five Key Factors Driving Recent Market Volatility (Mar 13, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Five Key Factors Driving Recent Market Volatility (Mar 13, 2025)
Fidelity Investments U.S. Market Analysis Report (March 12, 2025)This report summarizes Fidelity Investments' latest market analysis, highlighting five major factors behind increased volatility and strategies for investors.1. Market OverviewInvestor sentiment has weakened, with the S&P 500 down 10% from its February 19 all-time high.The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), or the "fear index," has nearly doubled.2. Key Factors Driving Volatility1) Rising Uncertainty Over TariffsTrade tensions have hurt both consumer and corporate confidence.Consumer sentiment has fallen to its lowest level since August 2021.🔹 Investment Strategy:Long-term investors should avoid overreacting to short-term tariff-related volatility.2) Tech Sector WeaknessTech stocks have been under pressure since the start of the year.Magnificent 7 valuations were overstretched, leading to a correction.The rise of China’s DeepSeek AI model has intensified competitive concerns in the sector.🔹 Investment Strategy:If tech exposure is too high, consider sector diversification to reduce concentration risk.3) Renewed Recession ConcernsThe U.S. Treasury yield curve has inverted (10-year yield < 3-month yield), a key recession indicator.Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model predicts a 2.8% economic contraction.🔹 Investment Strategy:U.S. economic fundamentals remain stable, and short-term recession risk is low.Consider global diversification to reduce U.S. market exposure.4) Persistent Inflation UncertaintyCPI inflation recorded its largest monthly increase in 18 months.If inflation remains high, the Fed may delay rate cuts, potentially slowing economic activity.🔹 Investment Strategy:Consider Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) as a hedge against inflation risks.5) Interest Rates and Government Spending UncertaintyHigher inflation could slow the Fed’s rate-cutting plans, but long-term yields have declined due to growth concerns.Concerns over federal spending cuts have added to investor uncertainty.🔹 Investment Strategy:No significant evidence of major spending cuts yet, but monitor trends in growth and inflation policies.3. Investment Strategy RecommendationsMaintain long-term investment plans despite short-term tariff-related volatility.Diversify away from overexposure to tech stocks to manage risk.Consider international diversification to hedge against U.S. economic risks.Use inflation-protected assets (TIPS) if inflation concerns persist.ConclusionThis report urges investors to focus on long-term fundamentals rather than short-term volatility.The key macro risks—tariffs, tech correction, recession fears, inflation, and policy uncertainty—are driving increased market swings.By adjusting portfolios to account for these risks, investors can navigate the current market turbulence more effectively.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 자민
·
4 months ago
0
0
Estimating the Implied Equity Risk Premium (ERP) in U.S. Stock Market Risk-Return Models (Mar 18, 2019)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 자민
·
4 months ago
0
0
Estimating the Implied Equity Risk Premium (ERP) in U.S. Stock Market Risk-Return Models (Mar 18, 2019)
"Risk and Return Models for Equity Markets and Implied Equity Risk Premium"This study analyzes methodologies for estimating the Implied Equity Risk Premium (ERP), a key factor in equity market risk-return models, and evaluates the limitations of traditional approaches.1. Research ObjectivesUtilize Google Trends search volume data and other market indicators to empirically analyze ERP in the U.S. stock market.Examine financial analysts’ and investors’ approaches to equity return estimation and compare their effectiveness relative to benchmarks.Explore the relationship between capital investment, earnings expectations, and long-term bond yields.2. Research MethodologyCollected data from 1988 to 2009:S&P 500 index, 6-month Treasury bills, and 10-year Treasury bonds.Applied various ERP estimation methods, including:Historical returns approachSurvey-based expectationsDCF (Discounted Cash Flow) model-based ERP estimatesConducted OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) regression analysis to evaluate the relationships between key variables.3. Key Findings1) ERP Estimation is Highly UnstableUsing the DCF model, ERP estimates were inconsistent and highly volatile across different time periods.In some cases, the estimated ERP was negative, highlighting the sensitivity of ERP calculations to model assumptions and input data.2) Model LimitationsChallenges in long-term growth forecasting:The model struggles to predict long-term economic growth trends, making ERP estimates unreliable.Inability to capture short-term volatility:The approach fails to incorporate market shocks or investor sentiment fluctuations.Mismatch with investor expectations:The model may not accurately reflect how investors form risk-return expectations in real markets.3) Limited Data CoverageThe study relied on a relatively short sample period (1988-2009).Extending the dataset could improve the robustness of ERP estimates.ConclusionThis study highlights the difficulties in estimating ERP using traditional models, emphasizing that:ERP estimation is complex and highly sensitive to model choice and data inputs.Existing methods fail to consistently capture investor expectations and market conditions.Future research should explore more advanced models and incorporate alternative data sources (e.g., Google Trends).[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Analysis of the Roller Conduction Effect in the Chinese Stock Market (Oct 15, 2023)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Analysis of the Roller Conduction Effect in the Chinese Stock Market (Oct 15, 2023)
"The Roller Conduction Effect: Evidence from A-Share Data"This study empirically analyzes the existence of the Roller Conduction Effect in the Chinese A-share market, focusing on digital consumption trends and valuation cycles in the post-pandemic economic recovery.What is the Roller Conduction Effect?The Roller Conduction Effect describes a sequential capital rotation phenomenon where:Limited capital exists in the market.One sector's rise triggers capital inflows into another, creating a cyclical uptrend.Not all sectors rise simultaneously—there is a time lag in sectoral uptrends.Psychological factors (e.g., hot money and retail investor sentiment) accelerate this cycle.Example (From This Study)During post-pandemic consumption recovery:Digital consumption stocks rose first as leaders of the upgrade cycle.Traditional consumer goods stocks followed as capital rotated into them.1. Research ObjectivesExamine capital rotation patterns across different consumption sectors and introduce a new classification framework for sensory-based consumption.Analyze whether digital consumption acts as an upgrade driver and receives higher valuations, interpreting the Roller Conduction Effect through temporal and spatial transmission.Identify distinct rotational patterns in stock market capital movements and provide insights for investment strategy formulation.2. Research MethodologyCollected A-share stock data (Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, GEM Index, STAR 50 Index) from January to April 2022.Analyzed digital consumption as a consumption upgrade tool and assessed higher valuation targets.Applied electrical circuit energy transfer models to compare relationships within economic systems.Used the Coupling Coordination Degree Model (CCDM) to quantify correlations and interdependencies between systems.3. Key FindingsRoller Conduction Effect Confirmed:Data analysis confirmed the presence of the Roller Conduction Effect in the A-share market, where the rise of one industry sequentially drives capital inflows into others.Capital Flow Patterns:The effect is most pronounced in stock capital movements, where funds first flow into Shanghai Composite Index components before rotating into other indices.Reversal in the STAR 50 Index:The STAR 50 Index exhibited a clear reversal trend against the Shanghai Composite Index, suggesting that capital rotated from GEM stocks into STAR 50 stocks.Low Coupling State:As of April 2022, the coupling coordination degree between the STAR 50 Index and other indices was low, indicating:The Roller Conduction Effect emerges during valuation recovery cycles.Capital rotates quickly but without a strong leading trend.ConclusionThis study empirically validates the existence of the Roller Conduction Effect in the Chinese A-share market, particularly in stock capital flows.It also highlights the reversal pattern in STAR 50 and its implications for investment strategy formulation.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
The Relationship Between Efficiency and Valuation in Chinese Listed Banks (Jul 19, 2024)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
The Relationship Between Efficiency and Valuation in Chinese Listed Banks (Jul 19, 2024)
"Super-efficiency and Stock Market Valuation: Evidence from Listed Banks in China (2006 to 2023)"This study examines the relationship between bank efficiency and stock market valuation using an unbalanced panel dataset of 42 listed Chinese banks from 2006 to 2023.1. Research ObjectivesAnalyze the relationship between bank efficiency and stock market valuation in China.Use the Super-SBM-UND-VRS model, which treats non-performing loans as an undesired output, to measure efficiency.Compare the results of Super-SBM-UND-VRS with other efficiency models such as Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) and traditional DEA.Investigate whether ownership concentration impacts bank valuation and how interest rate liberalization affects bank performance.2. Research MethodologyCollected annual reports from 42 listed banks in China (2006-2023).Applied Super-SBM-UND-VRS, SFA, and DEA models to evaluate bank efficiency.Used Tobin’s Q as a measure of stock market valuation.Conducted panel regression analysis to assess the relationship between efficiency scores and valuation.3. Key Findings1) Efficiency is more strongly correlated with market valuation than profitability (ROA):Banks with higher efficiency scores tend to have higher stock market valuations, even more than banks with high ROA. This suggests that investors prioritize operational efficiency over traditional profitability metrics.2) Super-SBM-UND-VRS is more effective than SFA and DEA:The Super-SBM-UND-VRS model better identifies inefficient banks and provides a more precise measurement of the efficiency-valuation relationship.3) Lower ownership concentration improves bank valuation:Banks with more dispersed ownership structures tend to have higher market valuations. This suggests that corporate governance improvements from diversified ownership enhance investor confidence.4) Interest rate liberalization negatively impacts bank valuation:Deregulated interest rates increase competition, reducing bank profitability and leading to lower stock valuations.ConclusionThis study confirms that bank efficiency is a more critical factor than profitability (ROA) in determining stock market valuation.It also highlights the Super-SBM-UND-VRS model as a superior tool for assessing bank efficiency.Additionally, ownership dispersion enhances valuation, while interest rate liberalization poses a challenge for banks.These findings offer valuable insights for investors, regulators, and bank executives in shaping governance and risk management strategies.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Analyzing the Effectiveness of Long-Short Strategies in the U.S. Mid-Cap Equity Market (Dec 17, 2024)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Analyzing the Effectiveness of Long-Short Strategies in the U.S. Mid-Cap Equity Market (Dec 17, 2024)
"Market-Neutral Strategies in Mid-Cap Portfolio Management: A Data-Driven Approach to Long-Short Equity"This paper examines the effectiveness of a market-neutral long-short strategy in the U.S. mid-cap stock market, leveraging market inefficiencies and quantitative optimization techniques.1. Research ObjectivesDevelop an effective long-short strategy that exploits inefficiencies in mid-cap stocks.Optimize portfolios using financial indicators such as profitability, valuation, and liquidity.Assess stability and resilience across different market conditions.2. Research MethodologyUsed U.S. stock data (2013-2023) sourced from WRDS and Compustat.Ensured point-in-time (PIT) compliance to prevent data leakage.Applied data preprocessing techniques such as outlier removal, multicollinearity adjustments, and feature selection.Maintained market neutrality while optimizing portfolios based on profitability, valuation, and liquidity factors.Conducted backtesting across various market conditions to evaluate strategy performance.3. Key Findings1.High Sharpe Ratio Achieved:The backtested strategy (2013-2023) produced a Sharpe ratio of 2.132, demonstrating strong risk-adjusted returns.2.Effectiveness of a Data-Driven Approach:Combining fundamental factors (profitability, valuation, and liquidity) proved to be highly effective.Reinforces the importance of fundamental analysis in investment decision-making.3.Stability and Resilience of Market-Neutral Strategy:Backtesting across different market conditions confirmed the strategy’s robustness and consistency.Suggests that the strategy is not overly dependent on specific market trends.4.Optimization Enhances Risk Management:Portfolio optimization effectively controlled risk while outperforming market benchmarks.The balanced long-short position reduced exposure to market volatility.ConclusionThis study confirms that a market-neutral long-short strategy can generate stable returns in the mid-cap segment. By leveraging data-driven optimization techniques, the strategy effectively exploits market inefficiencies while maintaining stability across market conditions.A high Sharpe ratio indicates superior risk-adjusted returns, reinforcing its advantage over traditional benchmarks.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 자민
·
4 months ago
0
0
The Effects of Market Properties on Portfolio Diversification in the Korean and Japanese Stock Markets (Sep 4, 2021)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 자민
·
4 months ago
0
0
The Effects of Market Properties on Portfolio Diversification in the Korean and Japanese Stock Markets (Sep 4, 2021)
"The Effects of Market Properties on Portfolio Diversification in the Korean and Japanese Stock Markets"This study empirically examines how market properties affect portfolio diversification in the Korean and Japanese stock markets.1. Research ObjectivesAnalyze whether the degree of diversification in Markowitz portfolios is influenced by market properties.Explore whether Random Matrix Theory (RMT) can improve portfolio management by controlling for market-driven correlations.2. Research MethodologyUsed KOSPI 200 stock data (Jan 1980 - Jun 2015) and Nikkei 225 stock data (Jan 1983 - Dec 2000).Included periods of market crashes to assess the impact of crises.Collected returns, market capitalization, and investor trading data.Compared correlation matrices with and without market factor control using RMT.Measured intra-portfolio correlation (IPC) and concentration coefficient (CC) to assess diversification.3. Key Findings1.Market factor influence increases during crises:Empirical evidence shows that during market instability, stocks move more in sync with the overall market rather than independently.2.Diversification decreases in volatile markets:When market factor influence is strong, Markowitz optimal portfolios become more concentrated in fewer stocks.This suggests that diversification weakens during periods of high market uncertainty.3.RMT-based portfolios improve diversification:Removing market-driven correlations using RMT results in better portfolio diversification.RMT-based portfolios exhibit lower risk than traditional Markowitz portfolios, highlighting RMT’s potential to enhance portfolio theory.4.Eigenvalue analysis in Japan’s stock market:The largest eigenvalue was positively correlated (96.58%) with IPC and negatively correlated (-73.84%) with CC.This means that as market factor influence grows, portfolio diversification weakens.ConclusionThis study confirms that as market factor influence grows, portfolio diversification declines.Using RMT to control market-driven correlations improves portfolio diversification, making it an effective tool for addressing the limitations of traditional portfolio theory.The findings suggest that RMT-based portfolio construction may be particularly useful in high-volatility environments.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Analysis of Price Momentum Effects in the Korean Stock Market (Nov 28, 2012)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Analysis of Price Momentum Effects in the Korean Stock Market (Nov 28, 2012)
"Momentum Universe Shrinkage Effect in Price Momentum"This study examines the existence of price momentum effects in the Korean stock market and analyzes how the performance of momentum strategies changes as the market universe shrinks.1. Research ObjectivesVerify whether the momentum effect exists within the KOSPI 200 index.Construct subuniverses based on market size and evaluate momentum strategy performance in each subset.Analyze the impact of foreign investors' trading patterns on the momentum effect.2. Research MethodologyUsed daily stock price data from January 1980 to December 2011 for KOSPI 200 constituents.Divided stocks into subuniverses based on market capitalization.Applied a traditional momentum strategy, ranking stocks by past returns to form winner and loser portfolios and measuring future performance.Analyzed how trading patterns of different investor groups (individuals, institutions, and foreign investors) affected returns.3. Key FindingsMomentum effect exists in the KOSPI 200:Stocks with high past returns (winners) tend to continue rising, while low past-return stocks (losers) tend to keep falling.Confirms the classic momentum effect, consistent with Jegadeesh & Titman (1993).Momentum Universe Shrinkage Effect:Momentum strategy performance is stronger in specific subuniverses (e.g., excluding KOSPI 50 stocks).Suggests that momentum effects are more pronounced in certain company sizes and that larger companies may dilute overall momentum performance due to noise.Negative impact of KOSPI 50 large-cap stocks:Top 50 largest market cap stocks weaken the momentum effect.Large-cap stocks exhibit high information efficiency, causing momentum effects to fade quickly.The high institutional ownership of large-cap stocks may limit the effectiveness of short-term momentum strategies used by retail investors.Foreign investors' influence:Foreign investors' trading patterns may dilute the momentum universe shrinkage effect.This may be due to foreign investors favoring specific large-cap stocks or preferring certain trading strategies.Excluding stocks favored by foreign investors could improve momentum strategy performance for retail investors.ConclusionThis study confirms the presence of momentum effects in the Korean stock market, but their effectiveness varies depending on market size and investor composition.To enhance momentum strategy performance, investors should exclude large-cap stocks and consider the impact of foreign investor trading patterns.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Study on the Existence of Fat-Tail Phenomena in the Korean Stock Market (Apr 4, 2019)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Study on the Existence of Fat-Tail Phenomena in the Korean Stock Market (Apr 4, 2019)
"Fat Tails in Financial Return Distributions Revisited: Evidence from the Korean Stock Market"This study examines the fat-tail phenomenon in the Korean stock market using historical data and various statistical methods.1. Research ObjectivesEmpirically verify whether fat-tail phenomena exist in the Korean stock market.Investigate whether fat tails have become more pronounced in recent years and whether they are stronger in small-cap stocks.Analyze the impact of the 1997 Asian financial crisis and volatility clustering on fat-tail distributions.2. Research MethodologyUsed daily log returns from January 1980 to June 2015.Divided the dataset before and after the 1997 financial crisis and categorized stocks by market capitalization.Compared actual return distributions with theoretical distributions (normal distribution, Student’s t-distribution, and alpha-stable distribution).Applied the GARCH model to control for volatility clustering.Measured tail fatness using statistical probability and degrees of freedom from the Student’s t-distribution.3. Key FindingsFat tails have become more pronounced in recent periods:Compared to the pre-crisis era, fat-tail effects have intensified in recent years.Suggests that market volatility has increased and that unexpected shocks occur more frequently, making the investment environment less predictable.Fat tails are more prominent in small-cap stocks:Fat-tail distributions are stronger in small-cap stocks than in large-cap stocks.This can be attributed to higher information asymmetry, speculative trading, and greater influence of market sentiment in small caps.Market crashes significantly contribute to fat tails:Fat tails are evident during financial crises, such as the 1997 Asian financial crisis.However, even after controlling for crisis periods, fat tails persist, indicating that other factors also contribute to fat-tail phenomena.Volatility clustering does not fully explain fat tails:Even after controlling for volatility clustering using the GARCH model, fat tails remain significant.This suggests that traditional volatility models cannot fully explain fat-tail behavior, and additional factors are at play.Asymmetry between positive and negative tails:In the Korean stock market, positive fat tails tend to be thicker than negative ones.While large losses are often seen in negative fat tails, the market experiences more frequent large positive price movements.ConclusionThis study confirms that fat-tail phenomena exist in the Korean stock market and cannot be fully explained by market crashes or volatility clustering.Fat tails indicate that extreme gains and losses occur more frequently than predicted by normal distribution models, making them a crucial factor in risk management. Future research should focus on identifying systematic and unsystematic risks embedded in fat-tail behavior.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
The Relationship Between 'Happiness' Search Trends and Korean Stock Market Returns (Aug 19, 2023)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
The Relationship Between 'Happiness' Search Trends and Korean Stock Market Returns (Aug 19, 2023)
"Words that Matter: The Impact of Negative Words on News Sentiment and Stock Market Index"This study analyzes the relationship between Google Trends search volume for "happiness" (Happiness Search Exposure, HSE) and stock market returns in the Korean stock market.1. Research ObjectivesInvestigate whether HSE serves as an asset pricing factor rather than just an investor sentiment indicator.Examine whether HSE predicts future stock returns, particularly in large-cap and value stocks.Assess whether an HSE-based investment strategy can enhance institutional investor performance.2. Research MethodologyCollected 45,723 Korean economic news articles from January 4, 1990, to December 31, 2021.Gathered Google Trends data for the search term "happiness."Estimated expected returns using the Fama-French 5-Factor Model and calculated abnormal returns.Conducted time-series linear regression analysis to examine the relationship between HSE and the KOSPI 200 index.Controlled for variables such as firm size and book-to-market ratio (BE/ME) to validate findings.3. Key FindingsHSE predicts future returns in large-cap value stocks:Higher HSE is linked to higher future returns in large-cap value stocks.Suggests that HSE reflects a firm's societal utility rather than just financial fundamentals.Firms associated with social value tend to attract positive investor sentiment, leading to stock price appreciation.HSE as a risk factor:Unlike traditional sentiment indicators, HSE can be interpreted as a rational asset pricing factor.Investors tend to favor companies that provide societal utility, and HSE captures this preference.Predictive power remains after controlling for size and value factors:Even after accounting for size and BE/ME, HSE retains its ability to predict stock returns.This suggests HSE is not just a reflection of known market anomalies but contains unique information.Nonlinear relationship between HSE and firm size:Stocks with high or low HSE tend to have lower market value.Stocks with moderate HSE tend to have higher market value.Indicates that HSE does not have a simple linear correlation with firm size.ConclusionThis study demonstrates that Google Trends search volume for "happiness" can function as both a sentiment indicator and an asset pricing factor. HSE effectively predicts returns in large-cap value stocks, suggesting that institutional investors may benefit from an HSE-based strategy. Additionally, the findings highlight that well-chosen Google Trends keywords can be linked to market risk and stock price movements.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Analyzing 3PROTV’s Influence on Stock Selection and Market Timing (Nov 26, 2023)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Analyzing 3PROTV’s Influence on Stock Selection and Market Timing (Nov 26, 2023)
"Information Content of Financial YouTube Channels: A Case Study of 3PROTV and the Korean Stock Market"This study examines the content of 3PROTV, a major Korean financial YouTube channel, and analyzes whether its content provides useful insights for stock selection and market timing.1. Research ObjectivesDetermine whether 3PROTV content conveys positive or negative sentiment about specific stocks.Assess whether 3PROTV content can be used to predict future market returns.2. Research MethodologyCollected transcripts of 3PROTV’s YouTube content from August 2, 2022, to November 28, 2022.Identified mentioned stocks using DataGuide’s Korean company name database.Analyzed sentiment levels using KOSELF (Korean Sentiment Lexicon for Finance).Used the Fama-French 5-Factor Model to estimate expected returns and calculate abnormal returns.Developed a sentiment index to assess its predictive power for future market portfolio returns.Controlled for News Sentiment Index (NSI), short-term interest rates, and liquidity risk factors (PctZero) to validate results.3. Key FindingsStock Selection Insights:Negatively mentioned stocks underperformed after being featured.Positively mentioned stocks performed well before being featured but were often already priced in, limiting their investment value.Investors may overreact to overhyped stocks or face higher volatility.Market Timing Indicator:Changes in 3PROTV sentiment were effective in predicting market returns.The 3PROTV sentiment index successfully predicted the direction of market portfolio returns for the following two days.This predictive power remained significant even after controlling for external factors such as news sentiment, interest rates, and liquidity risk.This suggests that 3PROTV content can provide valuable market timing insights.4. ConclusionThis study shows that 3PROTV content is useful not only for selecting individual stocks but also for determining overall market timing. However, these findings are based on a limited sample period (2022), and negative sentiment appears to have a stronger influence on investor behavior than positive sentiment.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
How to Use the Panic Indicator (PI) for Selling (Dec 11, 2015)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
How to Use the Panic Indicator (PI) for Selling (Dec 11, 2015)
The paper "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Moving Average Trading Strategies" introduces the Panic Indicator (PI), which quantifies investor sentiment using the following methodology:1. Collecting Text DataBusiness analysis news articles are sourced daily from publishers such as Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, and The New York Times Company.The collected text database includes economic analysis articles, article headlines, and educational materials (e.g., CFA curriculum content).2. Classifying Text Data (Positive vs. Negative)Sentences likely to impact the stock market positively or negatively are selected from the text database.The Semantic Tree method is used for subjective classification (Beth, 1955; Bondecka-Krzykowska, 2005; Liu, 2010).A benchmark sentence database containing over 65,000 sentences from past market-affecting news is built.News article headlines and summaries are compared with the benchmark database to classify sentiment as positive, negative, or neutral.Traditional statistical methods, such as bad-good word counting, were found ineffective.3. Calculating the Panic Indicator (PI)PI is calculated based on the ratio of positive to negative macroeconomic news articles using the following formula: PI=Positive Macro News Count−Negative Macro News CountPositive Macro News Count+Negative Macro News CountPI = \frac{\text{Positive Macro News Count} - \text{Negative Macro News Count}}{\text{Positive Macro News Count} + \text{Negative Macro News Count}}PI=Positive Macro News Count+Negative Macro News CountPositive Macro News Count−Negative Macro News Count​Alternatively, the formula can be expressed in terms of pessimistic ratio (kp): PI=1−kp1+kp,kp=Negative Macro News CountPositive Macro News CountPI = \frac{1-kp}{1+kp}, \quad kp = \frac{\text{Negative Macro News Count}}{\text{Positive Macro News Count}}PI=1+kp1−kp​,kp=Positive Macro News CountNegative Macro News Count​4. Panic Indicator (PI) RangePI values range from -1 to +1:PI close to -1 → Extreme fear (all macroeconomic news is negative).PI close to 0 → Neutral market sentiment.PI close to +1 → Optimistic market sentiment.SummaryThe Panic Indicator (PI) quantifies investor sentiment through text analysis of business news articles. It evaluates positive and negative macroeconomic news and calculates a sentiment ratio using a predefined formula. The PI value, ranging from -1 (extreme fear) to +1 (optimism), provides insights into market psychology.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Simulation of Human Stock Traders' Chart Analysis Methods Using Deep Learning Models (Apr 8, 2024)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Simulation of Human Stock Traders' Chart Analysis Methods Using Deep Learning Models (Apr 8, 2024)
This study aims to simulate the methods of human stock traders based on chart analysis using deep learning models. Despite the efficient market hypothesis, inefficiencies exist in the stock market, and deep learning can serve as a valuable tool to capitalize on these inefficiencies and outperform market returns.1. Core ConceptUtilization of Chart Patterns:Professional technical analysts identify specific patterns in historical price charts to predict future price movements. This study assumes that a deep learning model can learn and utilize such chart patterns.Long-Term Data Usage:The model analyzes stock price data from the past 600 days to capture long-term trends.Binarized Returns:The model predicts whether stock prices will rise or fall by 10% or 20% within a specified period (D days). Binarization reduces sensitivity to minor price fluctuations, simplifying model training.2. Data PreprocessingOHLCV Data Collection:Daily Open, High, Low, Close, and Volume (OHLCV) data from South Korea (KOSPI, KOSDAQ) and the U.S. (NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX) markets are collected.Log Price Transformation:To prevent sharp gradient explosions, logarithmic price data (base 10) is used instead of daily returns.Label Assignment:The model classifies stock price movements into three categories:10% (or 20%) Rise: If the highest price within D days exceeds the current closing price by 10% (or 20%).10% (or 20%) Fall: If the lowest price within D days is at least 10% (or 20%) below the current closing price.Sideways Movement: If neither threshold is met.3. Model ArchitectureResNet-Based Model:The model employs skip connections from ResNet to effectively capture long-term trends. A modified ResNet architecture optimized for time-series data, as proposed by Wang et al. (2017), is used.Input:A 5×600 tensor, where 5 represents OHLCV features and 600 corresponds to past days of stock data.Layers:Five ResNet blocks (each with convolutional layers of kernel sizes 7×1, 5×1, and 3×1).Batch normalization and ReLU activation functions applied.Global Average Pooling (GAP) layer to extract key feature representations.Fully connected (FC) layer followed by Softmax activation to output probabilities for price movement categories (10% rise, 10% fall, sideways movement).4. Model TrainingLoss Function: Binary Cross Entropy (BCE).Optimization Algorithm: Not specified.Epochs: 50.Batch Size: Not specified.Precision: 16-bit floating-point precision.Training Duration: 1.5 days for Korean stock data, 5 days for U.S. stock data5. Key Experimental ResultsSouth Korea Market Performance:Annualized return: 75.36%Sharpe ratio: 1.57Outperformed simple market investments and achieved significantly higher risk-adjusted returns.U.S. Market Performance:Annualized return: 27.17%Sharpe ratio: 0.61Outperformed NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones benchmarks but underperformed AMEX.Still demonstrated superior performance compared to major indices.Impact of Softmax Logit Thresholds:Adjusting the Softmax logit threshold significantly influenced backtesting results.Optimized threshold selection enhanced accuracy and reduced trading risks.These findings suggest that deep learning-based chart analysis can be an effective strategy for outperforming market returns. The model's superior performance in the Korean market suggests that chart patterns may be more useful in relatively inefficient markets.In contrast, the model’s lower performance in the U.S. market may be due to higher market efficiency, making it harder to extract excess returns solely from chart analysis. However, the study highlights the potential for improving performance by fine-tuning Softmax logit thresholds, making this an essential aspect of trading strategy optimization.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 자민
·
4 months ago
0
0
World’s Second-Largest Household Debt: Is Korea’s Monetary Policy Being Hindered? (Mar 17, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 자민
·
4 months ago
0
0
World’s Second-Largest Household Debt: Is Korea’s Monetary Policy Being Hindered? (Mar 17, 2025)
As of the end of last year, South Korea’s household debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 91.7%, ranking it second in the world. Although it has maintained high levels—surpassing 100% for four consecutive years since 2020 (with Canada at 100.6%)—a recent statistical reorganization for the previous year showed a slight decline. Nonetheless, the ratio remains significantly above the emerging market average (46.0%) and the global average (60.3%).The surge in household debt is complicating the Bank of Korea’s monetary policy. According to the BOE’s “Analysis of Household Credit Accumulation Risks and Policy Implications” report, higher household credit ratios are associated with lower GDP growth and an increased likelihood of recession in both the medium and short term. One of the primary reasons the Monetary Policy Board hesitated to cut the benchmark rate last year was concern over high household debt and an overheated real estate market.Recently, policies such as the lifting of land transaction restrictions in designated areas have led to increased real estate activity, particularly in the Seoul region. Experts warn that this uptick in transactions could trigger a sharp rise in household loans in two to three months. If such a surge occurs, the Bank of Korea will face significant pressure when considering future rate cuts.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 자민
·
4 months ago
0
0
Cobalt Prices Surge 32% Amid Congo Export Ban, Raising Supply Concerns (Mar 14, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 자민
·
4 months ago
0
0
Cobalt Prices Surge 32% Amid Congo Export Ban, Raising Supply Concerns (Mar 14, 2025)
Cobalt, a key raw material for electric vehicle (EV) batteries, surged 32% in a single day. On March 11, cobalt (99.8% alloy grade) on the Rotterdam exchange rose to $18.5 per pound, marking a 32.14% increase from the previous trading session and the highest level in over 17 months.The price spike followed the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) decision to impose a four-month cobalt export ban, aiming to counter price declines caused by oversupply. As the world’s largest cobalt producer, accounting for 74% of global output (230,000 tons), Congo’s decision is expected to disrupt the global supply chain significantly.Following the announcement, cobalt prices surged nearly 12% on China’s Wuxi Stainless Steel Exchange, temporarily halting trading. Given cobalt’s critical role in EV batteries and consumer electronics, the export ban could have a widespread impact across industries. South Korea, which imported 13,426 tons of cobalt in 2024, sources a significant portion from the DRC (5,995 tons) and China (3,759 tons).[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 자민
·
4 months ago
0
0
U.S. Steel Tariffs Take Effect… Mexico and Brazil Prioritize Negotiation (Mar 13, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 자민
·
4 months ago
0
0
U.S. Steel Tariffs Take Effect… Mexico and Brazil Prioritize Negotiation (Mar 13, 2025)
The Trump administration has officially implemented a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum products, escalating global trade tensions. While several major steel-exporting nations are considering reciprocal tariffs, Mexico and Brazil have chosen negotiation over retaliation.As the second- and third-largest suppliers of steel to the U.S., Mexico and Brazil are cautious about the potential economic repercussions of aggressive countermeasures. Mexico, citing the USMCA trade agreement, has opted for a measured approach, delaying a final decision on countermeasures until next month. Similarly, Brazil, heavily reliant on U.S. steel exports, is prioritizing diplomatic negotiations over immediate retaliation.Trump’s decision, based on Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, threatens to erode the price competitiveness of steel and aluminum exports to the U.S. If trade tensions persist, global supply chains and related industries may face increasing pressures. Investors should closely monitor the volatility of stocks in countries with strong trade ties to the U.S. and fluctuations in related currency markets.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
4 months ago
0
0
World War Tariff: The Outbreak of a Global Trade War (Mar 13, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
4 months ago
0
0
World War Tariff: The Outbreak of a Global Trade War (Mar 13, 2025)
The U.S. Trump administration has imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum products, escalating global trade tensions. Key trading partners, including the European Union (EU) and Canada, have announced immediate retaliatory tariff measures. The EU Commission stated that it would impose additional tariffs of up to 50% on approximately $30 billion worth of U.S. goods, including motorcycles, jeans, and whiskey. As a result, the tariff rate on iconic American motorcycle brand Harley-Davidson will soar from 6% to 56%.The Canadian government has also announced plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on about $22 billion worth of U.S. goods. Meanwhile, the UK has opted for a more cautious approach, prioritizing negotiations with the U.S. over immediate retaliatory action. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated, "We will pragmatically review all negotiation options," indicating a measured stance.In response, U.S. President Donald Trump has vowed to counter the EU’s retaliatory tariffs, declaring, "America will win the war of money." The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) also condemned the EU’s actions, arguing that the bloc has refused cooperation and disregarded U.S. national security concerns.Domestically, public sentiment toward Trump’s tariff policy remains largely negative. According to a recent CNN poll, 61% of respondents opposed the tariffs, while 56% expressed a negative view of Trump’s economic policies overall.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Utilizing Regime-Switching Signals to Reduce Downside Risk in Investment Strategies (Jul 11, 2024)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Utilizing Regime-Switching Signals to Reduce Downside Risk in Investment Strategies (Jul 11, 2024)
A study titled "Downside Risk Reduction Using Regime-Switching Signals: A Statistical Jump Model Approach" explores investment strategies that leverage regime-switching signals to mitigate downside risk. The research employs a Statistical Jump Model (JM) to identify market regimes, where JM applies a jump penalty to each state transition, reinforcing regime persistence. A feature set derived from asset returns—including risk and return metrics—is used, and an optimal jump penalty is selected through time-series cross-validation to optimize strategy performance directly.Empirical analysis using U.S. (S&P 500), German (DAX), and Japanese (Nikkei 225) stock indices from 1990 to 2023 demonstrates that JM-based strategies reduce volatility and maximum drawdowns while improving risk-adjusted returns such as the Sharpe ratio, even in the presence of trading costs and delays. The findings highlight the robustness, practicality, and versatility of JM in regime-switching strategies.Statistical Jump Model (JM)The Statistical Jump Model (JM) is a non-parametric method used in this study to identify market regimes. It overcomes the limitations of traditional Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) and offers the following characteristics:Non-parametric approach: Unlike conventional models that assume specific probability distributions, JM derives regimes directly from data, making it more robust to non-normality and time-variation in financial time-series data.Clustering-based framework: JM relies on k-means clustering, grouping data points with similar features into distinct market regimes.Jump penalty: A jump penalty discourages frequent transitions between regimes, reducing unnecessary trades and enhancing strategy stability. The magnitude of this penalty is controlled by the hyperparameter λ, which is fine-tuned through cross-validation.Feature selection: JM incorporates downside deviation and the Sortino ratio to assess risk and returns effectively.Empirical Analysis: Performance Across Major Stock IndicesThe study applies JM to the S&P 500 (U.S.), DAX (Germany), and Nikkei 225 (Japan) from 1990 to 2023 and compares its performance against HMM-based and Buy-and-Hold strategies.Overall performance: JM-based strategies outperformed both HMM-based strategies and Buy-and-Hold approaches, demonstrating lower volatility, reduced maximum drawdowns (MDD), and higher Sharpe ratios.S&P 500: JM and HMM showed similar risk reduction and return enhancement, with little performance gap due to the index’s relatively low volatility.DAX & Nikkei 225: JM significantly outperformed HMM, maintaining higher Sharpe ratios and avoiding underperformance relative to the market.Trading delay robustness:As trading delays increased, performance declined across all models, but JM remained more resilient than HMM.While HMM underperformed the market after a five-day delay in DAX and Nikkei 225, JM maintained superior or equal Sharpe ratios even with a two-week delay.Bear Market Detection: JM effectively shifted to safe assets during major downturns, notably the Dot-Com Bubble (early 2000s), the 2008 Financial Crisis, and the 2020 COVID-19 crash.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Tokyo Stock Exchange Shutdown Due to Panic Selling (Jan 18, 2006)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Tokyo Stock Exchange Shutdown Due to Panic Selling (Jan 18, 2006)
Key EventsTokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) experienced a two-day consecutive crash, leading to an early market closure due to an overwhelming flood of sell orders.The Nikkei 225 index dropped 2.9%, closing at 15,341.18, marking the largest single-day decline since May 10, 2004.Trading ended 20 minutes early as the system reached its processing capacity.Causes of the CrashLivedoor Scandal:The investigation into internet company Livedoor was a major trigger.Founder Takafumi Horie, a well-known entrepreneur, faced allegations of securities law violations.Prosecutors raided Livedoor’s headquarters, and reports surfaced that the company hid a ¥1 billion ($8.7 million) deficit in its 2004 fiscal year.U.S. Tech Stocks' Poor Earnings:Intel and Yahoo reported lower-than-expected earnings, further rattling investor sentiment.TSE System Failure:A surge in trading volume overwhelmed the exchange’s system.A previous system failure occurred on Nov 1, 2005, highlighting ongoing technical issues.Market ImpactMassive sell-offs hit both internet stocks (SoftBank, Yahoo Japan) and blue-chip electronics stocks (Canon, Toshiba, Sony).European markets felt the shockwaves, though U.S. markets saw a limited impact confined to tech stocks.Some investors saw the sell-off as a buying opportunity, given the previous 40% market surge in the past year.Response MeasuresTSE delayed the next trading session by 30 minutes to manage order flow.The Japanese economic minister requested a formal report on the exchange’s early closure decision.Market Sentiment"Both retail and foreign investors are panic-selling." — Satoru Otsuka, Senior Economist at Mizuho Research Institute."The uncertainty about Livedoor’s situation is the main concern." — Market analysts.The incident was more than just a corporate scandal—Horie’s high-profile status and Livedoor’s popularity among retail investors amplified the market shock.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Determinants of Country-Specific Co-Movements in the Korean Stock Market (Jan 22, 2018)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Determinants of Country-Specific Co-Movements in the Korean Stock Market (Jan 22, 2018)
This study examines the degree of co-movement between the Korean stock market and the markets of the United States, Japan, and China. It analyzes key factors influencing these relationships using industry-level data from 2003 to 2016, applying an international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM).1. Changes in Co-Movement After the Global Financial CrisisDecreased correlation with the U.S. and Japan:After the 2008–2009 global financial crisis, the correlation between the Korean stock market and those of the U.S. and Japan weakened.This suggests that Korea’s economic ties with these countries became less influential, or that external factors had less impact on the Korean market.Increased correlation with China:The Korean stock market’s correlation with the Chinese market strengthened post-crisis.This reflects growing economic interdependence between Korea and China, driven by increased trade and investment flows.2. Trade Linkages as the Primary Driver of Co-MovementTrade volume between Korea and other countries was identified as the main determinant of stock market co-movements.Higher trade dependency on a particular country leads to stronger co-movements with its stock market.Export-driven industries show greater sensitivity to the economic conditions of key trade partners.3. Limited Influence of Financial LinkagesForeign stock investment did not significantly impact market co-movements.Institutional investors appear to focus more on fundamental valuations rather than short-term market trends.Short-term speculative trading by foreign investors likely reduces the impact of capital flows on long-term co-movement trends.4. Industry-Specific DifferencesThe study analyzed 24 manufacturing industries and found variations in co-movements based on trade dependency.Industries highly dependent on Chinese exports exhibited stronger correlations with the Chinese stock market.5. Policy ImplicationsOver-reliance on a single country for trade can increase market instability.Diversifying trade relationships is crucial to reducing vulnerability to external economic shocks.Financial policymakers should monitor global trade patterns to mitigate risks associated with concentrated trade dependencies.Additional InsightsThe study applied ICAPM to assess the global integration of Korea’s stock market.Results highlight the growing economic interdependence between Korea and China, particularly post-2008.The findings emphasize the importance of trade diversification to ensure market stability.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Improving MACD Technical Analysis by Optimizing Parameters and Modifying Trading Rules: Evidence from the Japanese Nikkei 225 Futures Market (Jan 12, 2021)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Improving MACD Technical Analysis by Optimizing Parameters and Modifying Trading Rules: Evidence from the Japanese Nikkei 225 Futures Market (Jan 12, 2021)
This study explores how optimizing MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) parameters and refining trading rules can enhance profitability in the Nikkei 225 futures market. While the traditional MACD settings (12, 26, 9) performed poorly between 2011 and 2019, the study finds that optimized parameter values significantly improved returns. Additionally, applying additional trading strategies helped reduce false signals and further enhance performance.Key Findings:1. Limitations of Traditional MACDThe standard MACD settings (12, 26, 9) were ineffective in the Nikkei 225 futures market.This suggests that a one-size-fits-all approach does not work, as different markets exhibit unique price movement patterns and volatility levels.2. Importance of Parameter OptimizationOptimizing the short-term EMA, long-term EMA, and signal line values is crucial for improving MACD performance.For instance, using optimized parameters (e.g., 4, 22, 3) led to significant performance improvement, highlighting the need for market-specific adjustments.3. Enhancing MACD with Additional StrategiesTo further improve accuracy and reduce false signals, the study introduces three additional trading rules:n-Day Holding Strategy: Holding positions for n days after a trading signal to prevent premature exits.x%-Line Crossover Strategy: Trading only when the MACD line crosses a certain threshold, reducing whipsaws.Peak/Bottom Search Strategy: Identifying the first peak or bottom of the MACD histogram before entering a trade.These strategies only worked effectively when paired with optimized MACD parameters, suggesting synergy between parameter tuning and additional filtering rules.Investment Strategy RecommendationsOptimize MACD settings: Perform backtesting to identify the best-fitting MACD parameters for each market.Utilize additional strategies: Apply holding periods, crossover filters, and peak/bottom detection to enhance accuracy.Implement risk management: Use stop-loss orders and position sizing to limit downside risk.ConclusionTo maximize MACD effectiveness in the Nikkei 225 futures market, traders must customize MACD settings based on market characteristics and integrate additional filtering strategies to reduce false signals and enhance profitability.Cautionary NotesResults are based on data from 2011-2019, and performance may vary in different timeframes or markets.Past performance does not guarantee future results, and traders should apply rigorous testing before implementing strategies.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Empirical Analysis of Price Limit Hits of Tokyo Stock Exchange (Dec 31, 2017)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Empirical Analysis of Price Limit Hits of Tokyo Stock Exchange (Dec 31, 2017)
This study examines the characteristics of stocks hitting price limits on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE), analyzing stocks that frequently reach upper or lower price limits and their distinguishing factors.Key Findings:1. Characteristics of Stocks Hitting the Upper Price LimitLow Systematic Risk: Stocks reaching the upper limit are less sensitive to overall market movements. Even when the market rises, these stocks may not increase as much, and during downturns, they tend to decline less.Interpretation: This suggests that positive stock movements are primarily driven by firm-specific factors such as improved earnings, new business expansions, or strategic announcements, rather than broader market trends.2. Characteristics of Stocks Hitting the Lower Price LimitHigh Systematic Risk: Stocks reaching the lower limit exhibit higher sensitivity to overall market fluctuations. They tend to rise more in bullish markets but fall more sharply in bearish conditions.Interpretation: This indicates that stock crashes are largely triggered by broader market sell-offs, rather than firm-specific factors. Investor sentiment deteriorates during unstable market conditions, increasing selling pressure and leading to lower price limits being reached.3. Effectiveness of Price Limit RulesVolatility Suppression: Price limit rules help curb excessive stock price fluctuations, providing market stability.Market Protection: These regulations prevent panic-driven crashes, protecting investors and maintaining orderly trading conditions.4. Market-Driven Declines vs. Firm-Specific GainsLower price limits are more correlated with broader market downturns, indicating that external macroeconomic factors primarily drive these declines.Upper price limits are primarily driven by firm-specific catalysts, such as strong earnings reports or new growth initiatives.Conclusion:The study demonstrates that price limit rules in the Tokyo Stock Exchange play a stabilizing role by curbing extreme volatility and protecting investors from abrupt market swings. Additionally, stocks reaching upper and lower price limits are influenced by different factors—with upper limit gains driven by internal corporate developments and lower limit declines influenced by broader market trends.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
"Soaring Stock Market Faces Warning Signals from Bonds" (Jan 8, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
"Soaring Stock Market Faces Warning Signals from Bonds" (Jan 8, 2025)
The U.S. bond market is sending signals that the bullish sentiment in equities may be overly optimistic.Stocks are now nearing their most overvalued levels in 20 years compared to corporate bonds and Treasuries. The earnings yield on S&P 500 stocks—the inverse of the P/E ratio—has fallen to its lowest level relative to Treasury yields since 2002, indicating that stocks are historically expensive relative to bonds.Key Market DiscrepanciesS&P 500 vs. Corporate Bonds:S&P 500 earnings yield: 3.7%BBB-rated U.S. corporate bond yield: 5.6% (widest gap since 2008)Typically, stock earnings yields should exceed corporate bond yields due to higher equity risk, but the current negative gap has historically signaled market trouble.Valuation Concerns:S&P 500 is trading at 27x trailing earnings, well above the 20-year average of 18.7x.U.S. investment-grade corporate bond risk premium (spread) is at 0.81%, one of the tightest levels in decades, indicating both stocks and bonds are expensive.Historical Warning Signs:Bloomberg’s Ben Ram noted that such negative stock-bond yield spreads have typically appeared during bubbles or periods of rising credit risk.Morgan Stanley strategists, including Michael Wilson, warn that high interest rates and a strong dollar could weigh on stock valuations and corporate earnings.Short-Term vs. Long-Term RiskWhile this valuation gap does not guarantee an immediate market correction, history suggests it raises downside risk.The spread between S&P 500 earnings yield and BBB bond yields has remained negative for two years, and such dislocations can persist for extended periods before a correction occurs.Investors reacted sharply when the Federal Reserve signaled slower-than-expected rate cuts on December 18, causing stocks to fall nearly 3%—the worst Fed-day decline since 2001—before rebounding.Investor Sentiment & Risk AppetiteDespite these warning signs, investors continue to embrace risk, as seen in soaring equity prices and speculative crypto investments.However, Goldman Sachs has already issued a long-term caution, forecasting just 3% average annual S&P 500 returns over the next decade.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Domestic Slump, Record Unemployment & Business Closures—Korean Economy in Crisis (Mar 10, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Domestic Slump, Record Unemployment & Business Closures—Korean Economy in Crisis (Mar 10, 2025)
Korea’s economy is facing mounting recession risks as both domestic consumption and exports struggle, with the job market taking a significant hit.At the end of February, unemployment benefits payments surged 11.5% year-over-year (YoY) to a record-high KRW 1.0728 trillion, while new claims jumped 25.1% to 117,000, the highest February figure since related data was first compiled in 1997.Small Business Collapse WorsensThe situation is equally dire for self-employed businesses, the backbone of Korea’s domestic economy.In January, the number of self-employed individuals fell to 5.5 million, shrinking by more than 200,000 for the second consecutive month—returning to levels last seen during the COVID-19 crisis.Rising costs and weakened consumer spending have fueled a surge in business closures.Meanwhile, external demand is also declining, eliminating any immediate recovery prospects.The Korea Development Institute (KDI) has warned of downside risks for three consecutive months, citing sluggish construction and worsening export conditions.Falling semiconductor prices, a key pillar of Korea’s exports,The Trump administration’s escalating tariffs—which threaten to deliver further shocks to Korea’s already weakened trade sector.With employment deterioration and prolonged consumer weakness, analysts warn that Trump’s protectionist trade policies could further drag Korea’s economy into an actual recession.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Stock Price Dynamic Behavior in Major Global and Korean Capital Markets (Mar 24, 2022)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Stock Price Dynamic Behavior in Major Global and Korean Capital Markets (Mar 24, 2022)
Summary of the Study: "Stock Price Dynamic Behavior in Selected Global and Korean Capital Markets"This study analyzes the factors driving the movements of the Korean stock market (KOSPI) and investigates its relationship with major global stock markets, including the U.S. (Dow Jones & Nasdaq), Japan (Nikkei), Hong Kong (Hang Seng), and China.Key Findings1. Differences in the Influence of Global Stock Markets on KOSPIU.S. (Dow Jones Industrial Average - DJI):No significant short-term impact on the Korean stock market.This suggests that the overall U.S. economic condition is not directly reflected in KOSPI.However, this study covers data only from 1987 onwards, so the impact before that period remains unknown.Japan (Nikkei 225 - NIKKEI):Like DJI, it does not exert a significant short-term influence on KOSPI.This could be due to geopolitical and policy-related differences between the two economies.Hong Kong (Hang Seng Index - HSI):Has a positive short-term impact on KOSPI.This reflects Hong Kong's close economic ties with Korea and its strong link to the Chinese economy.U.S. (Nasdaq Composite - NASDAQ):Has a positive short-term impact on KOSPI.Since Nasdaq is tech-heavy, its influence may be attributed to the strong Korea-U.S. partnership in the tech sector.2. Impact of Macroeconomic VariablesOil Prices (WTI) and Exchange Rate (KRW/USD):Both factors have a significant short-term impact on KOSPI.Positive Effect of Exchange Rate Movements:KRW depreciation (higher KRW/USD exchange rate) tends to benefit the Korean stock market.A weaker Korean Won increases price competitiveness of Korean exports, boosting corporate earnings.3. Shock Response AnalysisOwn Shock Effect:KOSPI is most affected by its own movements, meaning that it reacts more strongly to domestic factors than external ones.Other Influential Factors:KOSPI is somewhat affected by movements in the Hang Seng Index, Nasdaq, and exchange rate, but their influence is smaller compared to domestic shocks.Conclusion & Investment ImplicationsKOSPI is integrated with global financial markets, but the influence of certain indices (DJI & Nikkei) on its short-term movement is limited.Hang Seng and Nasdaq have a more noticeable impact, suggesting that China-related economic trends and the tech industry play a critical role in shaping Korea’s stock market movements.KRW/USD exchange rates are a crucial factor, reinforcing Korea’s export-driven market dependency.Domestic factors remain the primary driver of KOSPI, implying that domestic economic conditions and policy changes are more influential than global trends in determining market performance.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Short-Term Stock Price Reversals Tend to Be Reversed Again (Jan 23, 2013)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Short-Term Stock Price Reversals Tend to Be Reversed Again (Jan 23, 2013)
Summary of the Study: "Short-Term Stock Price Reversals May Be Reversed"This study analyzes intraday stock price fluctuations to provide insights into the dynamics of short-term price reversals. Specifically, it focuses on the tendency of short-term price reversals to be reversed again. The study examines intraday stock price data for the 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average components from January 2002 to September 2011.Key Findings1. Measuring Intraday VolatilityFollowing methodologies from Becker et al. (2008) and Klossner et al. (2012), the study measures intraday upward and downward volatility.These volatilities serve as proxies for market overreactions to positive or negative news.2. The Phenomenon of "Reversals of Reversals"Concept: When a stock experiences a sharp price movement due to news or information during the trading day but then reverses before market close, it often moves again in the original direction on the following trading day.Mechanism:Initial Overreaction: Investors react strongly to new information, causing large price fluctuations.Intraday Reversal: Some investors recognize the overreaction and engage in profit-taking or position adjustments, leading to a partial price correction.Persistent Effect: The initial information remains relevant, leading to renewed buying/selling interest the next day.Excessive Correction: If the intraday reversal is too strong, the price movement on the following day is even more pronounced.Example Scenario:A company announces positive news, causing its stock to surge.However, by market close, profit-taking reduces some of the gains (intraday reversal).The following day, investors still act on the positive news, pushing the stock back up (reversal of reversal).3. Measuring Reversals Using Volatility IndicatorsUpward Volatility (UV): Combination of movements from the open price to the daily high and from the daily high to the closing price.Downward Volatility (DV): Combination of movements from the open price to the daily low and from the daily low to the closing price.These metrics help assess whether the previous day's price movement can predict the next day's returns.4. Portfolio Construction & Performance AnalysisThe study creates 7 different portfolios based on the "reversal of reversals" strategy.Key Results:All portfolios based on this strategy generate statistically significant positive excess returns.This suggests that the pattern of reversals being reversed can be practically applied to trading strategies.5. HypothesisIf a stock experiences a significant price movement that later reverses intraday, then on the following trading day, it is likely to move in the original direction of the initial price movement.Key Takeaways & Investment ImplicationsThe study challenges traditional assumptions about short-term price reversals.Instead of blindly assuming price reversals are profitable to trade on, investors should assess whether the intraday reversal itself was excessive.By understanding this pattern, traders can potentially capitalize on short-term price swings with greater accuracy.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Factor Selling Timing Based on Business Cycles (May 16, 2022)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Factor Selling Timing Based on Business Cycles (May 16, 2022)
The paper titled "An Empirical Study of Regime-Based Factor Timing Strategies in the US Stock Market" investigates whether a factor investment strategy that adapts to different phases of the business cycle (recovery, expansion, slowdown, contraction) can outperform a static diversified factor model. The study analyzes data from 1998 to 2021, using MSCI factor indices (low size, value, momentum, quality, minimum volatility) and the OECD Composite Leading Indicator (CLI).Key InsightsFactor Performance Analysis by Business Cycle Phase: Identifying which factors perform best in each phase.Recovery: Size and Value factors perform best.Expansion & Slowdown: Momentum factor performs best.Contraction: Quality and Minimum Volatility factors perform best.Developing a Regime-Based Factor Timing Strategy:Two dynamic strategies are constructed based on regime changes:Regime-Based Mean-Variance ModelRegime-Based Factor ModelPerformance Comparison: Evaluating the effectiveness of these dynamic strategies against a static Equally Weighted Model.Robustness Test: Conducting multiple tests to validate the effectiveness of the best-performing dynamic strategy in real-world investment conditions.This study does not explicitly define "selling timing", but it provides indirect insights into which factors should be avoided in different market conditions.The core principle is to reduce exposure to underperforming factors in a given market phase while increasing allocation to outperforming factors.Factor Performance by Market Phase & Selling ConsiderationsRecovery Phase (Post-recession rebound)Factors to avoid: Minimum Volatility, Quality (worst performance)Reason: As markets recover, risk-on factors like Size and Value outperform, whereas defensive factors lag. Consider reducing or selling Minimum Volatility and Quality holdings.Expansion Phase (Strong economic growth)Factors to avoid: Quality, Minimum Volatility (underperforming)Reason: Momentum performs best in this phase. Consider reducing or selling Quality and Minimum Volatility while increasing exposure to Momentum.Slowdown Phase (Economic deceleration)Factors to avoid: Size, Value (high volatility)Reason: Momentum remains strong, but Size and Value exhibit high volatility. To manage risk, consider reducing or selling Size and Value.Contraction Phase (Recession)Factors to avoid: Size, Value, Momentum (worst performance)Reason: Defensive factors like Quality and Minimum Volatility outperform. Consider selling Size, Value, and Momentum and shifting towards Quality and Minimum Volatility.Considerations & LimitationsThis analysis is based on historical data, and past patterns may not always repeat.Real-world factors such as transaction costs and taxes must be taken into account.This information is for educational purposes and should not be taken as financial advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Is It More Advantageous to Sell Gradually Over Time? (Jul 13, 2022)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Is It More Advantageous to Sell Gradually Over Time? (Jul 13, 2022)
Have you ever watched the movie 21 (2008)? Or have you heard of the MIT Blackjack Team, a group of students from MIT, Harvard, and other top universities who used card counting techniques to beat the blackjack game? Do you know what the term "card counting" means?If you're familiar with these concepts, you already know how a brilliant group of students used blackjack to outplay casinos and make money. They followed a relatively simple strategy: by counting the number of high and low cards remaining in the deck, they increased their bets whenever they believed there were more high-value cards left.This concept, known as card counting, was first popularized by mathematician Edward Thorpe in his book Beat the Dealer. Thorpe’s groundbreaking discovery was that the probability of receiving certain cards changes over time based on which cards have already been played. According to his calculations, when played perfectly, blackjack gives the casino only a 0.21% advantage, meaning the casino earns 0.21% of every wager over time.However, when specific cards are removed from the deck, the casino's odds shift. For example, the more high-value cards (Ace, King, Queen, Jack, Ten) that are dealt, the higher the casino’s winning probability. But Thorpe discovered the opposite is also true. In his book A Man for All Markets, he explains:"However, removing lower-value cards such as 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 significantly benefits the player. The best scenario is when all four 5s are removed, shifting the casino's win probability from 0.21% to the player’s advantage of 3.29%."This means that under optimal conditions, the player's long-term losing probability of 0.21% can be reversed into a 3.29% winning probability. Although this percentage shift may seem small, it had a tremendous impact, allowing the MIT Blackjack Team to develop a system that led to millions in earnings and even inspired a Hollywood movie.I often think about Thorpe and his calculations—not because I love blackjack, but because this framework can help us in investing. Recently, a reader asked me:"I am retired and following a 4% withdrawal rate. My question is whether it is better to withdraw 4% of my portfolio at the start of the year or spread the withdrawals evenly throughout the year. Which strategy is likely to generate more wealth in the long run? Let's assume my portfolio consists entirely of U.S. index funds."This is an excellent question. To determine which strategy is more advantageous, let’s compare two different approaches:Lump-Sum Withdrawal at the Beginning of the Year: Withdraw 4% of the portfolio in January and leave the remaining funds fully invested in stocks. Repeat this process every year.Quarterly Withdrawal Strategy: Calculate the total withdrawal amount based on the January portfolio value and then withdraw equal amounts in January, April, July, and October. Repeat annually.By testing these two strategies, we found that while both involve the same withdrawal amount, the timing of withdrawals differs. One method sells everything upfront, while the other spreads it out over time. So, which strategy wins?If we compare these strategies over different timeframes, we find that quarterly withdrawals outperform lump-sum withdrawals in the majority of cases, with win rates ranging from 65% to 100%.For example, if we test these strategies annually from 1926 to 2021, we find that the quarterly withdrawal strategy ends the year with more money than the lump-sum strategy. Over a five-year period, the quarterly strategy wins 62% of the time. Over 30 years, it wins 100% of the time.However, beyond just win rates, we should also consider how much more wealth is generated. Unfortunately, the performance difference is not huge. Regardless of investment duration, the quarterly strategy outperforms the lump-sum strategy by an annualized 0.1%–0.2%.Despite this small performance gap, the advantage compounds significantly over time. For example, on a one-year basis, the quarterly strategy outperforms by 0.05%. Over 10 years, this increases to 0.72%, and over 20 years, it grows to 1.54%. Remember that Thorpe’s blackjack strategy gave players only a 1%–2% edge, yet it still led to massive earnings over time.This small advantage may seem insignificant, but it is not. If you were playing a fair game where the odds were perfectly 50-50, you would have zero advantage. No matter how long you play, you wouldn't gain an edge over your opponent. But if you have even a 1%–2% edge, your profits will compound over time. Whether in blackjack or investing, the principle is the same.You might wonder why the quarterly withdrawal strategy outperforms the lump-sum withdrawal strategy. The answer is surprisingly simple: markets tend to rise over time. Because of this, the best theoretical and practical action is to sell gradually over time. By delaying the sale of income-generating assets, you capture more market growth than someone who sells everything upfront. This logic also explains why lump-sum investing generally outperforms dollar-cost averaging.This logic applies not only to index funds but also to individual stocks. Unless you have a compelling reason to exit a position quickly, selling gradually over time is usually the smarter approach for long-term success.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
When Should You Sell a Stock? (Feb 3, 2021)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
When Should You Sell a Stock? (Feb 3, 2021)
Many investors struggle to determine the right time to sell a stock. While buying at the right price is crucial, knowing when to exit a position is equally, if not more, important.This article presents a systematic approach to selling stocks based on three key principles:Did You Make a Mistake?Has the Company’s Fundamentals Changed?Has the Stock Reached or Exceeded Its Intrinsic Value?1. Recognizing MistakesEven legendary investors like Warren Buffett admit to making mistakes. Errors can stem from misinterpreting competitive dynamics, misjudging regulatory risks, or simply miscalculating intrinsic value.If an investor realizes they made a fundamental error in their analysis, the best course of action is to sell the stock and reallocate capital to a better opportunity.Example:An investor purchased foreign stocks but forgot to factor in currency exchange rates. After correcting the miscalculation, it became evident that the stock was overvalued. Fortunately, the purchase price was low enough to still generate a profit—highlighting the importance of a margin of safety.2. Monitoring Fundamental ChangesEven a well-researched stock can become a poor investment if the company’s business conditions deteriorate. Competitive threats, regulatory changes, or macroeconomic shifts can significantly impact a company’s future profitability.Example:During the COVID-19 pandemic, Warren Buffett sold airline stocks. Despite initially holding these stocks long-term, the uncertainty surrounding the recovery of the travel industry prompted a reassessment of their intrinsic value.Investors should continuously reassess their holdings and be willing to adjust their portfolios when new, material information emerges.3. Selling When the Stock Reaches Its Fair ValueIf a stock has appreciated to its intrinsic value (or exceeded it), selling becomes a logical decision.Value investors estimate a company’s worth using methods like:Price-to-Earnings (P/E) RatioDiscounted Cash Flow (DCF) AnalysisExample:Suppose an investor calculates Bank of America’s intrinsic value to be $50 per share.Applying a 50% margin of safety, they only buy the stock if it falls below $25 per share.As the stock price rises, they monitor its valuation.Many value investors begin selling at 80% of intrinsic value ($40) and fully exit at 100-110% of fair value ($50-$55).Key TakeawaysInvestors should sell when:They made a mistake in their analysisThe company’s fundamentals have significantly changedThe stock price has reached or exceeded intrinsic valueBy following these rational, fundamentals-based criteria, investors can avoid emotional decision-making and focus on long-term profitability.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Does Seasonality Exist in Analysts’ Recommendations? (Nov 12, 2010)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Does Seasonality Exist in Analysts’ Recommendations? (Nov 12, 2010)
SummaryThe paper titled "The Seasonality in Sell-Side Analysts’ Recommendations" investigates whether there is seasonality in investment recommendations issued by star analysts and non-star analysts. The study finds that both star and non-star analysts tend to issue more optimistic recommendations in May, contradicting the well-known market adage, "Sell in May and go away."Non-star analysts were found to be more optimistic in their price targets compared to star analysts. Moreover, the study reveals that the cyclicality in analysts' optimism is more closely linked to corporate earnings announcement schedules rather than overall market trends. Additionally, analysts do not explicitly account for known seasonal effects when setting their recommendations and price targets.Using I/B/E/S data from 2003 to 2014, the researchers analyzed how seasonality influences analysts' optimism cycles and how earnings announcements impact target price forecasts. The study emphasizes that investors should be aware that analysts are most optimistic in May, which could influence investment decisions.Methodology Data Collection➤ Analyst recommendation and price target data were collected from the I/B/E/S database (2003-2014).➤ Star analysts were identified using Institutional Investor, StarMine, and The Wall Street Journal rankings.➤ Compustat data was used to track corporate earnings announcement dates.Market Seasonality Analysis➤ CRSP index data was analyzed to examine seasonal patterns in daily and monthly market returns from 2003 to 2014.Target Price Seasonality Analysis➤ The mean target price expected return (TPER) was calculated separately for star and non-star analysts.➤ Seasonal differences were examined between the summer (May–October) and winter (November–April) periods.➤ The study also assessed how buy, hold, and sell recommendations varied across seasons. Regression Analysis➤ OLS regression was used to analyze factors influencing target price forecasts, with independent variables including:➤ Seasonal dummy variables➤ Past and future market returns➤ Earnings announcement frequency Earnings Announcements & Optimism Cycles➤ Analysts’ average target prices over the year were compared against corporate earnings release schedules to determine the relationship between analyst optimism and earnings cycles.Key FindingsNo Strong Market Seasonality➤ Unlike prior studies, this research did not find a clear seasonal pattern in market returns from 2003 to 2014.➤ The researchers suggest this may be due to the short sample period or increased market awareness of seasonality effects.Target Price Seasonality➤ Both star and non-star analysts issued more optimistic price targets during the summer months, contradicting the "Sell in May" theory.➤ Non-star analysts were consistently more optimistic than star analysts, particularly in buy and hold recommendations.Earnings Announcements & Optimism Cycles➤ Analysts’ optimism was more strongly correlated with earnings announcement schedules than with market returns.➤ As the number of quarterly earnings reports increased, analysts issued more optimistic price targets.➤ However, analyst optimism tended to decline in the month before peak earnings release periods, suggesting that uncertainty leads to excessive optimism during periods of limited information.Star vs. Non-Star Analyst Differences➤ Non-star analysts were significantly more optimistic than star analysts in buy and hold recommendations.➤ In contrast, star analysts were more cautious and less likely to issue overly optimistic forecasts.➤ This implies that star analysts exhibit a more conservative approach compared to non-star analysts.ConclusionThis study provides valuable insights into the seasonal patterns of analysts’ recommendations, challenging the "Sell in May" theory by showing that analysts tend to be most optimistic during the summer months.Additionally, the research highlights that analyst optimism is more influenced by corporate earnings cycles rather than general market trends, suggesting that investors should consider earnings announcement schedules when interpreting analysts' recommendations.Moreover, the study demonstrates clear differences between star and non-star analysts, with star analysts being generally more conservative in their recommendations. This suggests that investors should carefully evaluate analyst reputation and track record when considering investment advice.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
The Four Most Concerning Signs in the Market Right Now (Jul 1, 2014)
Sell
Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
The Four Most Concerning Signs in the Market Right Now (Jul 1, 2014)
1. Addiction to Fed StimulusSimply put, financial markets have become dependent on low interest rates, leading them to overlook real economic and geopolitical risks, according to the latest annual report from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). While the Federal Reserve and other central banks have been credited with stabilizing financial markets by keeping interest rates low and channeling liquidity into stocks, BIS warns that investors have become overly optimistic, creating a widening disconnect between financial markets and the real economy.BIS also cautions that investors, in their aggressive search for yield, have shifted funds into riskier European and emerging market bonds, as well as lower-rated corporate debt. This leaves them highly vulnerable to potential shocks if interest rates rise sharply or economic conditions deteriorate. Additionally, BIS noted, “Persistently low interest rates meant to stimulate economic growth may instead fuel excessive debt accumulation, exacerbating the very problem they seek to resolve.”2. Stocks Are OvervaluedThe U.S. stock market is currently trading at historically high valuation levels. The Shiller PE Ratio, which measures inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years, shows that the S&P 500 is trading at over 26 times earnings, well above the long-term historical average of 16.5 times.Historical instances where the Shiller PE Ratio exceeded 25:1901 (Preceding a significant market downturn)1929 (Prior to the Great Depression)2000 (Dot-com bubble peak: 44 times earnings)2007 (Just before the Global Financial Crisis)A study by Credit Suisse found that when the Shiller PE Ratio surpasses 26, U.S. stock market returns tend to be negative over the next five years.3. Stock Prices Outpacing Economic GrowthStocks are currently trading at unsustainably high levels relative to U.S. economic growth. David R. Kotok, CIO at Cumberland Advisors, points out that the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks relative to GDP is nearing dot-com bubble levels.“We believe the likelihood of a correction is rising,” Kotok wrote in a recent research note. “Pinpointing the exact timing is difficult, but historically, when stock valuations become detached from GDP growth, the probability of a market correction increases significantly.”Even after excluding the Q1 GDP decline (-2.9% YoY), he acknowledges that stocks appear significantly overvalued relative to the economy.4. Corporate Executives Are Losing ConfidenceA report from Deloitte highlights a sharp decline in earnings expectations among U.S. CFOs. Manufacturing sector CFOs, in particular, have grown increasingly pessimistic, and their capital expenditure (CapEx) plans are also being scaled back.Deloitte’s Sanford Cockrell III noted, “Net optimism among CFOs remains steady, but lower earnings expectations and reduced capital spending suggest that U.S. executives are adjusting to uncertainties that were not on their radar just three months ago.”[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Sell
Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Bad news for the economy can also be bad news for the stock market (Aug 1, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Bad news for the economy can also be bad news for the stock market (Aug 1, 2025)
This year, the stock market has shown a paradoxical trend. As economic indicators worsen, a perverse view emerged that bad news could be good news for the market, since it might prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. This idea made some sense when inflation—after a long period—had become the primary market bogeyman amid a slowing economy. However, after the Fed recently decided to keep its short-term rate at the highest level in 20 years, investors are now expressing anxiety over a series of disappointing economic data points.July U.S. Manufacturing Activity: The ISM index dropped 1.7 percentage points from June to 46.8%, signaling an economic contraction (readings below 50% indicate contraction).Unemployment Insurance Claims: First-time filings surged to 249,000 last week—14,000 above estimates and the highest level since August 2023.Layoffs: Announced layoffs in July reached a 20-year high, intensifying concerns about a weakening labor market.10-Year Treasury Yield: Fell below 4% for the first time since February.Stock Market Reaction: Despite the lower yields, fears of a recession have driven the Dow Jones Industrial Average sharply lower, with cyclical stocks like JPMorgan Chase and Caterpillar taking significant hits.Expert Insights:Chris Rupkey, FWDBONDS Chief Economist, stated,“The manufacturing and unemployment data are clearly indicating a downturn, if not a recession, this morning. The market is unsure whether to laugh or cry because, despite the potential for three Fed rate cuts this year and 10-year yields falling below 4%, the winds of recession are blowing hard according to manufacturing purchasing managers.”Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge added,“The ISM shortfall is the latest sign of cooling domestic growth, and it further suggests that the Fed should have begun its easing cycle yesterday instead of waiting until September.”Looking ahead, the upcoming July jobs report is expected to be a crucial indicator of the economic slowdown. Dow Jones estimates predict that job gains will slow from 206,000 in the previous month to 185,000. Depending on how future economic data influences the Fed’s policy decisions, market volatility could increase even further.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
"Why Do We Sell Stocks at the Bottom?" (Mar 14, 2023)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
"Why Do We Sell Stocks at the Bottom?" (Mar 14, 2023)
Selling stocks now likely means realizing losses.In 2022, the S&P 500 dropped nearly 20%, marking its worst performance in 14 years. The Nasdaq 100 performed even worse, declining 28%. As markets tumbled, investor enthusiasm faded, leading to reduced trading activity and lower net inflows by the end of the year.The cycle of euphoria and despair is a well-documented pattern in investing. During bull markets, investors feel invincible—every stock seems to rise, creating an illusion of skill. However, as the market declines, many investors initially attempt to "buy the dip," expecting a quick rebound. But when prices continue to drop, uncertainty sets in, leading to panic selling at the worst possible moment—the bottom.How to Avoid Selling at the BottomThe key to avoiding emotional investing mistakes is to adopt a disciplined, long-term strategy. Some key lessons include:Ignore Financial Media Noise – Financial news focuses on current events but rarely explains market movements in real-time. While useful for staying informed, media should not dictate investment decisions.Develop a Lifelong Investment Strategy – Investing is not a buffet where you sample different strategies. Pick one and stick to it—consistency is key.Live Your Own Life – Vanguard founder John Bogle advised investors not to check their portfolios frequently. Investing should be about long-term growth, not daily stress.Practice Contentment – More money does not always mean a better life. Upgrade your lifestyle cautiously and focus on financial security over short-term gains.Embrace Compounding – If a stock drops 10%, selling might be a valid decision. But holding onto a stock after an 80-90% drop can be too painful to endure. Instead of speculative trading, focus on compounding returns through long-term investing.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 대니
·
4 months ago
0
0
"U.S. Recession Countdown Begins" – BCA Research Predicts Onset Within Three Months (Mar 11, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 대니
·
4 months ago
0
0
"U.S. Recession Countdown Begins" – BCA Research Predicts Onset Within Three Months (Mar 11, 2025)
According to BCA Research, the U.S. economy is highly likely to enter a full-scale recession within the next three months. The firm had previously raised its 12-month U.S. recession probability from 65% to 75% following the November 2024 presidential election. Recent economic data further reinforces this outlook.While NBER’s key recession indicators remained relatively stable in recent months, latest data suggests the U.S. economy has reached 'stall speed', signaling an imminent downturn. BCA warns that traditional economic models have underestimated the impact of U.S.-China trade tensions, Trump’s tariff policies, and the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts, meaning the growth slowdown could be more severe than expected.One major risk is the rapid depletion of excess consumer savings, which had surged to $2 trillion post-pandemic but has now turned negative at -$1 trillion. This sharp decline could further weaken consumer spending. Additionally, delinquency rates in the commercial real estate market have surged to 19%, raising financial stability concerns. Given these deteriorating economic fundamentals, there is skepticism over Trump’s ability to implement large-scale stimulus or infrastructure spending, as excessive fiscal policies could worsen the severity of the recession.source: https://t.me/HS_academy/8782[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
4 months ago
0
0
U.S. Moves to Ban Chinese AI—Tech Rivalry Heats Up (25.03.15)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
4 months ago
0
0
U.S. Moves to Ban Chinese AI—Tech Rivalry Heats Up (25.03.15)
Leading the U.S. AI sector, OpenAI has officially proposed a full ban on Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) models to the U.S. government. The company flagged security concerns, citing that DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup, could be subject to direct data control by the Chinese government. OpenAI urged for the complete exclusion of such products in the U.S. and allied nations.This proposal underscores the intensifying tech rivalry between the U.S. and China, now extending deep into the AI domain. Chinese firms, particularly startups like DeepSeek and Manus, have been gaining ground with cost-efficient, high-performance AI models. Leveraging low-cost semiconductors and algorithmic innovations, they are offering AI solutions that rival industry leaders. DeepSeek’s latest model, R1, has demonstrated performance on par with OpenAI’s GPT series, with other Chinese firms following suit.The U.S. government has expressed growing concerns over national security risks posed by China’s rapid AI advancements. OpenAI’s recommendation may pave the way for additional restrictions or expanded export controls on Chinese AI technology. If Washington moves to restrict or ban Chinese AI imports, it could disrupt global supply chains, impacting companies worldwide, including those in South Korea.Meanwhile, China is doubling down on AI as a strategic industry, with state-backed initiatives fueling its expansion. President Xi Jinping has directly met with DeepSeek CEO Liang Wenfeng, highlighting the government’s commitment to AI development. As a result, the tech war between the U.S. and China is expected to escalate further.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 자민
·
4 months ago
0
0
Wall Street’s Squid Game: Korean retail investors Playing with Fire (25.03.15)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 자민
·
4 months ago
0
0
Wall Street’s Squid Game: Korean retail investors Playing with Fire (25.03.15)
The extreme volatility in certain U.S. stocks and leveraged ETFs has recently been linked to the influence of Korean retail investors. Owen Lamont, Senior Vice President at Arcadian Asset Management, has warned that the U.S. market is increasingly being shaped by Korean-style investing, comparing it to the high-risk survival game in Netflix’s Squid Game.Lamont noted that while Korean investors account for just 0.2% of total U.S. market capitalization, they disproportionately impact niche sectors, driving wild price swings in speculative assets. In particular, their heavy concentration in thematic stocks—regardless of intrinsic value—has fueled excessive surges and crashes.He also pointed out a peculiar pattern among Korean investors: they tend to pile into stocks right before a crash. As an example, he cited the 2008 Lehman Brothers collapse, when Korean investors increased their purchases of the doomed company’s shares even as its financial instability became apparent. Lamont compared this behavior to historical cases such as Japanese retail investors in 1989 and growth fund investors in 1999, both of whom became emblematic of poor market timing before major downturns.Lamont emphasized that such high-risk, speculative investments often lead to devastating losses for most participants. He urged investors to avoid getting caught up in a Squid Game-style trading frenzy, where the vast majority end up losing.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 자민
·
4 months ago
0
0
Is the U.S. Market Correction a Bearish Signal or Just Volatility? (Mar 15, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 자민
·
4 months ago
0
0
Is the U.S. Market Correction a Bearish Signal or Just Volatility? (Mar 15, 2025)
The U.S. stock market has entered a technical correction phase, declining about 10% from its peak this year. Given that the market had surged approximately 60% over the past two years, opinions are divided between those viewing this as a natural correction and those seeing it as the beginning of a major downturn driven by Trump’s tariff policies. However, an examination of market fundamentals suggests that this is more of a short-term volatility spike than a structural decline.First, Trump’s "America First" policies and tariff hikes are not new market threats. These policies were already experienced and priced in during his previous term, making the recent tariffs more of a temporary adjustment factor reflecting political uncertainty rather than the start of a new financial crisis.Second, there are no clear signs of an economic downturn spreading to the real economy. While market volatility indicators like the VIX (Fear Index) have surged, the OAS (Option-Adjusted Spread between high-yield corporate bonds and Treasuries) remains relatively stable. Historically, both VIX and OAS spike simultaneously during a real economic recession, whereas the current situation aligns more with temporary political or external shocks seen in the past.In conclusion, the recent correction in the U.S. stock market appears to be a short-term adjustment driven by political uncertainty rather than a signal of a long-term economic downturn. However, given that a massive rally like the past two years is unlikely in the near term, investors should consider a short-term trading strategy rather than a long-term buy-and-hold approach.source: https://t.me/purequant/12023[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Finding the Optimal Stock Selling Timing Based on Average Prices (Jul 15, 2008)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Finding the Optimal Stock Selling Timing Based on Average Prices (Jul 15, 2008)
A study titled "Optimal Stock Selling/Buying Strategy with Reference to the Ultimate Average" proposes an optimal decision rule for buying and selling stocks based on their ultimate average price. The study aims to determine the ideal timing for maximizing (selling) or minimizing (buying) the expected price ratio relative to the ultimate average over a given period.Key Findings:1. Problem DefinitionGiven stock price volatility, when is the optimal time to buy or sell based on its ultimate average price?2. Theoretical ModelThe problem is framed as an optimal stopping problem formulated using variational inequalities.The study employs partial differential equation (PDE) methods to analyze optimal strategies.3. Optimal StrategiesUsing Geometric Average:Optimal Selling Strategy:If μ (expected return) > σ²/2 (half of squared volatility), hold until maturity.If μ ≤ σ²/2, sell immediately.Optimal Buying Strategy:Based on a feedback mechanism, dependent on the price-to-running-average ratio.Using Arithmetic Average:Unlike geometric averaging, a clear-cut formula for selling decisions is not available.However, analysis suggests that the optimal selling strategy depends on:The price-to-running-average ratioTime remaining until maturityThe threshold for selling is not fixed but varies dynamically based on the stock price and running average.General Selling Criteria:The study advocates a "bang-bang" strategy, where stocks are either sold immediately or held until maturity, based on predefined conditions.Key factors influencing the selling decision:Type of average used (geometric vs. arithmetic)Expected return (μ)Stock price volatility (σ)Price-to-running-average ratioConsiderations & Limitations:The results are derived from specific mathematical models and assumptions, which may differ from real market conditions.Transaction costs and market liquidity are not accounted for in this model.Optimal selling timing may vary based on an investor’s risk tolerance and objectives.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
"Halloween Indicator: Sell in May and Go Away" Works Everywhere
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
"Halloween Indicator: Sell in May and Go Away" Works Everywhere
A study titled "Halloween Indicator: Sell in May and Go Away – Anytime, Anywhere" finds that the Halloween effect is a strong and persistent phenomenon across global stock markets.Key Findings:Halloween Effect: The average stock market return from November to April (winter) is 4% higher than from May to October (summer).Risk-Return Relationship: During the summer months, the risk-return tradeoff is weak, contradicting traditional asset pricing theories.Global Data: A 323-year dataset dispels concerns of data mining.Widespread Occurrence: The Halloween effect is observed in 63 out of 65 analyzed markets.UK Market: The Halloween strategy has consistently outperformed a buy-and-hold strategy in the long term.Stock Premium: The new upper bound for stock market premiums is 4%.Robustness: The Halloween effect persists beyond sample periods and cannot be explained by outliers or data measurement frequency.Vacation Hypothesis: The most plausible explanation for the effect is investor behavior related to seasonal vacations.Investment Strategy: The Halloween strategy has a high probability of outperforming the market.Sample Size Impact: A small sample size makes it harder to detect the Halloween effect.Psychological Factors: Seasonal affective disorder or temperature changes do not significantly impact stock returns.Methodology: Using a six-month dummy variable does not affect the statistical significance of the results.Comparison: Halloween Strategy vs. Buy-and-HoldReturns: The Halloween strategy outperformed buy-and-hold in 30 out of 37 markets.Volatility: The Halloween strategy tends to have lower standard deviation, indicating lower risk.Sharpe Ratio: The Halloween strategy generally has a higher Sharpe ratio, meaning better risk-adjusted returns.UK Market: Since 1693, the Halloween strategy has consistently outperformed buy-and-hold over 50-year and 100-year subperiods.Bias Toward Gains: The Halloween strategy generates more extreme positive returns while producing fewer extreme losses than buy-and-hold.Long-Term Investment: This strategy is particularly useful for investors with a horizon of 5 years or more.Considerations and Limitations:The 4% return premium for winter months is an average and may not appear in all market conditions.Small sample sizes may make detecting the Halloween effect more challenging.The strategy’s effectiveness depends on market conditions and is not guaranteed to always generate positive returns.ConclusionThe Halloween strategy has historically delivered higher risk-adjusted returns than buy-and-hold, making it a compelling alternative for investors. However, investors should consider their goals, risk tolerance, and market conditions before adopting this seasonal approach.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Analysis of the Korea Discount (Feb 16, 2024)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Analysis of the Korea Discount (Feb 16, 2024)
This study empirically analyzes the causes of the "Korea Discount," a phenomenon where the valuation of publicly traded Korean companies is lower compared to their foreign counterparts. Using data from 45 major economies, it examines the current state and characteristics of the Korea Discount and identifies the key contributing factors.1. Current State of the Korea Discount:The Korea Discount is persistent and significant. From 2012 to 2021, the price-to-book (P/B) ratio of Korean listed firms was only 52% of that in developed markets and 58% of that in emerging markets.It is observed consistently across all sectors except for healthcare.Korea ranks among the lowest in P/B ratios among the 45 analyzed countries.2. Key Causes of the Korea Discount:1) Weak Shareholder Return Policies:Korean companies tend to be reluctant to return profits to shareholders. Low dividend payouts and limited share buybacks contribute to investor dissatisfaction, leading to lower valuations. Investors, especially those favoring dividend income, find Korean firms less attractive due to their conservative shareholder return strategies.2) Low Profitability and Growth Potential:Compared to global peers, Korean firms exhibit weaker profitability and growth prospects. This undermines investor confidence in their long-term potential. Insufficient investment in technological innovation and emerging industries further clouds future growth expectations.3) Weak Corporate Governance:Korean companies often operate under a controlling shareholder structure, with limited protection for minority investors. Issues such as a lack of board independence, weak governance transparency, and insider transactions allow management to prioritize personal interests over corporate value. This deters foreign investment and negatively impacts stock valuations.3. Additional Contributing Factors:Accounting Transparency Issues: There is a perception that Korean firms lack financial transparency, leading to investor uncertainty. However, improvements have been observed following the adoption of IFRS.Low Institutional Investor Presence: Institutional investors, who typically enhance market efficiency and corporate oversight, play a relatively minor role in Korea's stock market.Short-Term Trading Behavior: Korea's stock market is characterized by high retail investor participation and rapid turnover, fostering speculative trading rather than long-term investment.Geopolitical Risks: Tensions with North Korea and diplomatic frictions with neighboring countries contribute to investor hesitancy, though this study finds no direct correlation between geopolitical risks and the Korea Discount.4. Evaluation Methodology:Regression Analysis: Assesses the impact of various factors on stock valuations using P/B ratios as the dependent variable.Dominance Analysis: Measures the relative explanatory power of different factors to determine their significance in driving the Korea Discount.Conclusion:Addressing the Korea Discount requires a multi-faceted approach:Enhancing shareholder return policies through higher dividends and share buybacks.Strengthening profitability and growth prospects by investing in emerging industries.Improving corporate governance transparency and minority shareholder protections.Sustained efforts from companies, investors, and policymakers are essential to closing the valuation gap and making the Korean market more attractive to global investors.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Why Is It So Difficult to Sell? It's Because We Don’t Know the Right Time to Re-Enter (Dec 2, 2020)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Why Is It So Difficult to Sell? It's Because We Don’t Know the Right Time to Re-Enter (Dec 2, 2020)
There are several basic investment principles: diversify your investments, reduce costs, and—perhaps most importantly—stick to your principles even when the market is volatile. That last principle is the hardest to adhere to. Watching your money disappear during market downturns is truly painful, especially when renowned figures predict that the world will collapse amid market crashes.This was the case at the end of February when the U.S. stock market plummeted due to Covid-19. The S&P 500 lost over one-third of its market capitalization in just four weeks—one of the worst situations in history. Many believed that the pandemic would drive the U.S. into a prolonged recession and that the entire industrial sector would collapse, making recovery nearly impossible.In such chaos, holding onto your stocks is a remarkable feat—and the surprising part is that most investors managed to maintain their positions. A recent report from Dalbar, an institution that analyzes mutual fund flows, concluded that “investors’ average preference for stocks did not change even during the Covid period.” Similarly, data from Vanguard Group, which manages assets worth about $6 trillion globally, revealed that only 0.5% of retail clients and retirement accounts were converted to cash between February 19 and May 31 during the crisis.In contrast, during the 2008 global financial crisis, investors engaged in massive sell-offs—a dramatic shift driven by fear. This action was fueled by the prevailing belief that once a crisis begins, the market would never recover.Yet, the market recovered sooner than many expected. Despite no clear signal that the coronavirus had completely vanished, the market began its upward trend by the end of March and recovered to pre-Covid levels by August. As widely known, the stock market started to rebound even eight months before news broke that a vaccine would be developed and administered—a near-accepted truth.The dilemma for investors who sold at the onset of the crisis is now apparent. Since the market bottomed in March, the S&P 500 has surged nearly 60%. Thus, if you had sold your stocks near the high points before the Covid crisis—say, if you had invested $100,000 and then sold after a nearly 50% decline—you would have needed an $83,000 increase just to break even. In contrast, had you stayed in the market, your investment would now be worth $107,000—a return more than 30% higher than if you had sold.The alternative, however, is even more dismal: waiting until the market nears a previous low that may never return. During the financial crisis, even without clear evidence that the financial system would recover, the market began its rebound in March 2009. By October—when all signals had become clear—the market had risen nearly 60%.This is a familiar scenario. Investors who participated in the sell-off during the financial crisis faced similar challenges as those who exited the market during the Covid crisis. Those who re-entered the market during the 2009 recovery, despite concerns of buying at abnormal price levels, ended up earning over three times the returns of those who sold out in panic.There are countless similar examples. Although there are exceptions, history shows that when the market surges from its deepest crisis points, it signals that those investors who stayed in were driving the recovery. Covid-19 is one such example, and investors must continue to adopt this mindset.In other words, during crisis periods, instead of rushing to exit the market, focus on re-entering at the right time. No one can predict the bottom in advance. This means that re-entry can happen either too early or too late. Acting too early is unrealistic. If you feel the urge to sell when the market falls 20%, you likely won’t feel the impulse to buy when it rises 30% or more. The best course of action is to hold your current position.(Source: Washington Post)
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Why Do We Tend to Sell at the Start of a Recession and Fail to Buy at Its End? (Aug 12, 2022)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Why Do We Tend to Sell at the Start of a Recession and Fail to Buy at Its End? (Aug 12, 2022)
The first half of 2022 was dominated by high inflation, central bank interest rate hikes, and fears of an economic downturn. For American investors, the most positive news was that one should not rely solely on superficial figures—such as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP—that merely suggest the onset and conclusion of a recession. While investors can depend on the official recession declaration by the NBER, should they align their portfolio decisions with NBER’s announcements?The chart below displays the S&P 500 index alongside the recession periods as determined by the NBER since 1980. The chart clearly shows that stock market returns during recession periods were markedly negative.So, why do we end up selling when a recession begins and fail to buy when it ends?Of course, all macroeconomic data suffers from a time lag before being released. The NBER’s recession committee reviews various indicators and officially declares a recession only when it is convinced that a cyclical turnaround has occurred. In reality, such declarations often come more than a year after the cycle has shifted. Should investors then sell when the NBER announces that the previous cycle’s bottom has been reached, and buy when it declares that a new expansion has begun?To explore this issue, we collected all NBER recession announcements since 1980 and calculated the average 12‑month S&P 500 return following each announcement. On average, after the NBER declared a peak and the onset of a bear market, the S&P 500 returned +15% over the next 12 months—with only one instance out of six showing a decline (namely, the bear market of 2000–2003).Conversely, when the NBER declared that a recession had ended and a new expansion had begun, the S&P 500 fell an average of –3.5% over the following 12 months, with only two out of six cycles (in 1992 and 2003) posting positive returns.As a market timing tool, relying on NBER announcements is clearly problematic. The lag between the actual market cycle change and the official announcement is so long that the indicator becomes countercyclical. This effect is significant—the performance difference between the NBER’s low and high points is statistically significant at around 10%.However, these overall characteristics based on NBER announcements are merely statistical exercises. Who in their right mind would devise an investment strategy based solely on the NBER’s arbitrary announcements? Just because one can compute returns and statistical significance in an Excel spreadsheet does not mean one should base investment decisions on them. Nor do I claim that you must invest strictly according to Excel formulas.The key to becoming an excellent investor is not the ability to crunch spreadsheet numbers, but to understand what those numbers mean. This is an essential challenge for both inexperienced young investors and quant investors alike.Quantitative investing can easily become a case of “garbage in, garbage out” if one does not fully understand what one is doing and why certain results occur.While the NBER recession cycle examples clearly illustrate this point, the wrecks of bankrupt hedge funds and the unknown graves of Lehman credit analysts remind us that even highly educated experts fall prey to these mistakes on a regular basis.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 자민
·
4 months ago
0
0
South Korea Implements FX Market Stabilization Measures… Yet the Need for Fundamental Change Remains (Mar 11, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 자민
·
4 months ago
0
0
South Korea Implements FX Market Stabilization Measures… Yet the Need for Fundamental Change Remains (Mar 11, 2025)
In a bid to enhance foreign currency inflows and stabilize the weakening won, the South Korean government has recently unveiled a series of foreign exchange measures. These include raising hedging limits for FX derivatives, permitting domestic institutions to invest in foreign currency-denominated “Kimchi bonds,” and streamlining tax filing processes for foreign investors.These policy adjustments come as a response to the won’s significant decline—dropping over 12% against the U.S. dollar last year—and a 9.6% fall in the KOSPI index, underscoring an imbalanced FX market. Notably, data reveals that in 2024, the net foreign investment position held by Koreans reached a record $1.1 trillion, indicating a growing lack of confidence in domestic financial markets.However, experts warn that while these measures might offer short-term market stabilization, they will have limited long-term effect unless accompanied by more comprehensive reforms. Min Gyeong-won, an economist at Woori Bank, commented that without additional policies to support industrial and corporate sectors, attracting sustained foreign investment will remain a challenge.Moon Hong-Cheol, a strategist at DB Financial Investment, echoed this sentiment, emphasizing that the current adjustments alone are insufficient to address the underlying weaknesses of the won. He stressed the necessity for broader economic policy changes to achieve lasting improvements.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
5 Key Points for Determining the Right Time to Sell Stocks! (Jun 18, 2020)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
5 Key Points for Determining the Right Time to Sell Stocks! (Jun 18, 2020)
n the stock market, there are always ample reasons to sell. When the “March stock market massacre” occurred, investors wondered whether they should sell because the market seemed likely to fall further. Now, however, as the market appears poised to continue rising both more significantly and more rapidly, many are confused about whether to sell.Investors who sold stocks when the market was near its bear market lows a few months ago often suffer more with their positions than those currently contemplating a sale. Every time you need to make a major change in your asset allocation, the decision is difficult—especially as retirement approaches, when your human capital diminishes and you have less time to endure a painful bear market compared to younger investors.According to Fidelity and the Wall Street Journal, older investors tend to sell more during bear markets than younger ones. Fidelity’s data show that nearly one-third of investors aged 65 and above sold most of their holdings between February and May, and 18% of all customers completely liquidated their positions. I have discussed with many investors who wanted to sell in March; many were concerned about how prolonged downturns might affect their retirement plans. I fully understand why these retirees feel that their happiness is closely tied to their portfolios. The U.S. stock market enjoyed gains for 10 out of 11 years until 2020. This crisis was even likened to a second version of the Great Depression of the 1930s.We are indeed living in frightening times.However, fear and panic are not sufficient or valid reasons to sell. Waiting to sell until the market stabilizes can be a disastrous strategy. Even valuation-based market timing indicators have become almost useless—something anyone who has traded based on fundamentals over the past 20–30 years can attest to.A bear market is one of the worst times to completely overturn your asset allocation, because your decision-making ability is often clouded by emotion.So, when should you sell all or part of your stock holdings?When It’s Time for RebalancingGoing all in or completely exiting your position are among the riskiest moves in investing. While you might occasionally be influenced by luck, in reality you tend to sell before a major bull market begins or buy before a significant bear market sets in. Unless you have a rules-based investment strategy that you can stick to for a lifetime, extreme strategies like these are prone to leading to huge mistakes at the worst possible time.The simplest sell strategy is to adjust your portfolio allocation according to predetermined targets or timelines. For example, after the stock market rose by more than 30% in 2019, some investors sold part of their stock holdings to purchase bonds, cash, or other investments—only to see the stock market surge afterward. Then, after the market fell by over 30% this spring and bonds played a key role in a balanced portfolio, they sold bonds to buy more stocks. Today, those stocks are up 40%—a truly remarkable decision.When Diversification Is NeededI have seen many investors who allocated most of their retirement assets to the stock market instead of bonds. This strategy isn’t for the faint of heart—it works for pure savers who can endure short-term financial pain.When your investment period ends and retirement forces you to start drawing down your assets, a new dynamic comes into play. No one wants to be forced to sell stocks in a depressed bear market just to meet expenses. Even the most risk-tolerant investors eventually feel the need to cover expenses with cash or bonds.A severe bear market might not be the ideal time to seize an investment opportunity, but a significant bull market is never a bad time to re-evaluate your diversified portfolio.When You Realize You’ve Misunderstood the Investment ThemeThis is particularly relevant for those holding concentrated positions in individual stocks or niche ETFs. Every investor should regularly check whether their entry and exit points for an unexplained investment idea are still valid.This is more difficult than it seems. Questions like, “What if I wait until I just break even?” or “What if I sell and it immediately soars?” are common pitfalls that can be seen in losing positions.When You’ve Won Big in the GameIf you’ve been fortunate enough to accumulate an enormous sum—say, 20 to 25 times your expected retirement expenses—and have managed your spending habits well, you might eventually ask yourself, “What’s the point of continuing to take risks?”In a world where risk-free returns are available, such decisions would be trivial. However, the environment where you can simply live off interest from high-quality bonds no longer exists.Yet, if you have sufficient surplus funds to defend against inflation for the rest of your life, you might find that it becomes increasingly difficult to bear the myriad market risks in your portfolio.When You Need to Reassess Your Risk Profile or Adjust for a Change in Investment Period or EnvironmentMost investors believe that portfolio changes should be driven solely by market characteristics. Consider factors like the CAPE ratio, interest rates, Tobin’s Q formula, the A/D line, investor sentiment, and short-, medium-, and long-term performance metrics.Understanding the past and present market conditions can help guide your future decisions, though not every portfolio decision needs to be based solely on market fundamentals.Additionally, consider how your current environment affects your risk tolerance. You might need to reduce risk exposure if you find yourself in a better situation than expected—perhaps you’ve received an unexpected windfall or spent less than anticipated.If you don’t have a clear understanding of your investment goals from the start, building a portfolio becomes nearly impossible.While the market is critically important, you must always base your decisions on your own environment and goals.<Source: awealthofcommonsense>
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
8 'Secret Principles' for Selling Stocks (Feb 25, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
8 'Secret Principles' for Selling Stocks (Feb 25, 2025)
This article offers eight pieces of advice on determining when to sell stocks—a decision that is often more psychologically challenging than buying. The key is to make objective decisions that minimize losses and secure profits without being swayed by emotions.Everyone Makes Mistakes. Cut Your Losses:When losses occur, don’t wait for the stock to fall further—exit quickly. Let go of your pride and don’t be attached to your losses.If You Don't Sell Too Early, You'll Sell Too Late:To secure definite profits, you should sell while the stock is on an upward trend. It is advisable to follow a sell rule when a stock gains 20–25% from the entry point.Plan Your Exit Before You Buy:Without predefined sell rules and a clear exit strategy, investors may become blinded by greed during a rapid price surge or hesitate to sell when losses occur. Set a target sell price in advance.Don’t Let Good Profits Turn into Losses:If a stock that has gained 10–15% begins to turn downward, do not let the profit evaporate entirely. Securing even a modest profit of 5–10% is better than risking it all.Don’t Marry Your Stocks—Just Date Them:Blind loyalty to a stock is dangerous. Lock in your gains when the opportunity arises, and if problems occur, be willing to end the relationship without hesitation.Sell Your Losers First:It is a mistake to sell profitable stocks while holding on to those that are underperforming. Sell the losing stocks and reinvest in the winners.When Buying, Look at Both Fundamentals and Charts; When Selling, Focus on Charts:Technical analysis often gives warning signals before fundamental issues become apparent. Use price and volume trends, moving averages, and other technical indicators to decide when to sell.The Most Important Buy Rule is Buying at the Right Time:If you buy at the wrong time, it becomes much harder to determine the proper exit point. Confirm three key factors—market trend, new growth drivers, and institutional investor support—before purchasing.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Introducing a Step-by-Step Selling Strategy (Jul 22, 2024)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Introducing a Step-by-Step Selling Strategy (Jul 22, 2024)
It feels great when you pick a stock that performs well. However, you wouldn’t want to miss the ball at the 1-yard line. When you score a touchdown, you want to capture every bit of the associated gains. Today, I want to discuss how to scale back a position that has worked in your favor—a method to lock in the profits you’ve successfully earned. Even when the market is moving perfectly in your favor, you need a clear sell rule.There are three key points at which you should strongly consider selling part of your position after a stock has risen significantly from its initial buying point:When you achieve a 20–25% profit range.When the stock extends 10–15% above its 10-day moving average.When it breaks above the 10-day or 21-day moving average lines.Sell Rule 1After a breakout, once the stock has risen 20%, you might wonder if it could go 50% or even 100% higher—and if there isn’t a sell signal such as a break below the 50-day moving average, why hold it?At first, this may seem counterintuitive. However, experience quickly teaches you that the 20–25% range often represents an ideal point to secure profits and eliminate the risk of losing that initial 20% gain.Studies indicate that most growth stocks tend to establish a new base after rising 20–25% from the entry point. It’s a good rule to secure at least part of your gains. You don’t need to sell your entire position; consider selling as little as 25% or even 20% of your holding.Sell Rule 2When a stock is strongly rising, you may see it extend above its 10-day moving average by 10–15%—in addition to breaking above the 21-day and 50-day moving averages. This is generally an excellent time to sell an additional 25% or 20% of your position. The 50-day moving average is available on all IBD charts on Investors.com.Sell Rule 3It is reasonable to expect a pullback once a stock has extended above its 10-day moving average following an upswing—no stock can keep rising forever. Investors might use the 21-day moving average as a safety line. When a stock falls below either of these moving averages, it is a good time to sell the remaining shares you hold.However, if the stock clearly drops below the 50-day moving average (or the 10-week moving average on weekly charts), it’s time to sell all of your remaining position. A break of these lines on heavy volume adds further reason to sell.Such a break indicates that institutional investors are no longer supporting the stock during a decline. Selling below its previous high will help avoid even greater losses.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
5 Common Sell Signals in the U.S. Market (Mar 10, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
5 Common Sell Signals in the U.S. Market (Mar 10, 2025)
Once you have determined the optimal time to buy a stock, the next step is to figure out when to sell. Depending on your investment strategy, sell signals can help you decide when to exit a position if you are not planning to hold for the long term. Below are five sell signals commonly used in the U.S. market that even non-experts can utilize.High Relative Strength Index (RSI):The RSI is an indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of price movements. An RSI chart often displays upward and downward triangles that indicate whether a stock is overbought or oversold. When the RSI exceeds 80, it typically signals an overbought condition, which may be an appropriate time to sell.High Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio:The P/E ratio is calculated by dividing the stock’s price by its earnings per share (EPS), which is typically reported each quarter. A high P/E ratio compared to the industry average suggests that a stock may be overpriced, serving as a sell signal for many investors.High Short Interest Ratio:Hedge funds and institutional investors often bet on a stock’s decline by shorting it. The short interest ratio indicates the proportion of shares that are being shorted. A high short interest ratio (for example, 10–20%) means that many investors expect the stock price to fall, and in appropriate situations, this can serve as a sell signal.Debt Signals:Debt signals are useful tools in stock analysis. Analysts examine a company’s current debt and its plans for managing that debt to forecast future performance. While extreme examples like China’s Evergrande Group, which carries over $300 billion in debt, are rare, many companies have much lower debt levels. Keep a close watch on company announcements to understand what their debt decisions imply. Taking on new debt at low interest rates can signal growth opportunities; however, restructuring, delayed payments, or even bankruptcy filings may serve as sell signals.Negative Investor Sentiment:Although it is difficult, and sometimes impossible, to quantify overall market sentiment, bad news such as executive scandals, antitrust investigations, or dismal earnings reports can be warning signs for a stock. Investors generally react quickly to this type of news, so it’s important to stay connected. Setting up alerts on search engines for a company’s name can help you respond immediately when necessary.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
When Should You Sell Dividend Stocks? (Jul 10, 2020)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
When Should You Sell Dividend Stocks? (Jul 10, 2020)
Dividend stock investing offers numerous advantages—it can help protect your principal and boost your income. Well-managed, growing companies generate cash flows that can be distributed to shareholders, but their stock prices do not always rise. This raises an important question: “When should you sell your dividend stocks?”Some investors become so devoted to dividend stocks that they never sell, viewing periodic volatility and even occasional dividend cuts as merely part of the market’s ups and downs. However, for income-focused investors, determining the optimal time to sell can be particularly challenging. Will a decline in a stock’s value recover quickly? Even if dividends are cut, does the stock still have long-term upside potential?As Jim Cramer famously said, “Paper profits are not the same as money in the bank.”Below are five useful warning signals that can help you establish an exit strategy and make rational sell decisions to protect your assets.Warning Signal #1: Deteriorating Cash FlowWhen assessing whether a company can sustain its dividend, the first thing to examine is its cash position. Both the cash on the balance sheet and its ability to generate cash flow are critical. If a company’s cash flow deteriorates or it accumulates an enormous amount of debt, its ability to pay dividends will likewise weaken.Warning Signal #2: Declining Credit RatingsThis signal was particularly evident among energy companies in 2016. Renowned energy stocks such as Chevron Corp. (CVX) and Mobil Corp. (XOM) saw their credit ratings downgraded by agencies like Moody’s. Generally, a decline in credit ratings forewarns of an impending formal downgrade, which indicates higher borrowing costs when issuing new debt. Consequently, companies often resort to significant dividend cuts to preserve cash flow and protect their credit ratings.Warning Signal #3: Weak Fundamental MetricsEarnings seasons reveal which companies can sustain share repurchase programs and dividend payments. Companies with weak fundamentals—unable to boost cash flow through revenue or earnings growth—must find ways to bridge the gap and secure cash. Typically, the first step is to halt share repurchase programs, followed by cutting dividends if necessary.Warning Signal #4: Suspension of Share Repurchase ProgramsAs of July 2020, a low interest rate environment spurred an aggressive wave of share repurchases, as companies issued low-cost bonds to fund buybacks, thereby reducing the number of shares outstanding and boosting the value of the remaining stock. However, when a company scales back or stops its repurchase program, it can be a red flag—often indicating that it either lacks sufficient cash to support the program or has taken on too much debt. Without enough cash to continue repurchases, dividends may become the next target for cuts.Warning Signal #5: Falling Stock Prices and Rising Dividend YieldsWhen a company faces financial stress, it may resort to unsustainable measures to maintain its dividend. For instance, it might cut costs or divert funds originally earmarked for capital expenditures to pay dividends, or it might increase debt or sell shares to secure additional funding for dividend payments. The interesting aspect is that when these measures occur, the dividend yield may appear more attractive to income-hungry investors simply because the stock price has fallen. However, if investors fail to examine the underlying reasons for the rising yield, the company may ultimately be unable to sustain the dividend, leading to severe consequences when a cut eventually occurs.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
When Is the Best Time to Sell Stocks? (Feb 02, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
When Is the Best Time to Sell Stocks? (Feb 02, 2025)
Proven Principles for Stock Sell TimingKey Selling Principles:Defensive Selling Rules: Limiting Losses7–8% Stop-Loss Rule: Sell immediately if a stock falls 7–8% from the purchase price.This rule is based on over 130 years of stock market history, which shows that even the best stocks rarely drop more than 8% from their entry point.Capital preservation is paramount—"Sell first, ask questions later."If a stock falls more than 8%, it signals that there may be issues with the purchase timing, the company, the industry, or the overall market.Aggressive Selling Rules: Realizing Gains20–25% Profit-Taking Rule: Sell all or part of your position if the stock rises by 20–25% from an optimal buy point.It is best to sell in a rising, bullish market.Growth stocks typically surge 20–25% following a breakout from a favorable chart pattern before undergoing a pullback.The "72 Rule" applies: achieving 24% gains compounded three times doubles your capital.Exception: The 8-Week Holding RuleIf a stock surges more than 20% within three weeks of a breakout, hold it for at least eight weeks.Stocks with the strength to quickly rise over 20% may have the potential to become market leaders, so this rule should be applied only to true market leaders.While significant adjustments may occur during these eight weeks, you must weather the volatility.After eight weeks, you may then choose to either realize gains or continue holding.Considerations When Deciding to Sell:Assess overall market trends.In weaker markets, consider triggering stop-losses even at 3–5% declines.Calculate profit-taking based on your ideal buy point.Always prioritize capital preservation.Examples from Leading Companies:Even top growth stocks like Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOGL), Netflix (NFLX), and Amazon (AMZN) have experienced steep declines. Timing your exit well is critical to protecting gains.These principles are proven methods for limiting losses and locking in profits in stock investing, thereby safeguarding your portfolio and enabling long-term success.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 자민
·
4 months ago
0
0
Korean Won, the Global Underperformer, Unlikely to Rebound in the Short Term (Mar 11, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 자민
·
4 months ago
0
0
Korean Won, the Global Underperformer, Unlikely to Rebound in the Short Term (Mar 11, 2025)
The Korean won continues to exhibit a distinct weakness compared to major global currencies, failing to show any signs of a rebound. Even as the US dollar weakens, both the euro and the yen have appreciated by 4.04% and 5.41% respectively, while the won has continued to depreciate this year, making it the poorest performer among key currencies.The primary cause of the won’s decline is attributed to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and the ensuing fears of an economic recession. With an export-driven economic structure, South Korea is particularly vulnerable to U.S.-originated tariff risks. In fact, foreign investors have been continuously withdrawing from the domestic stock market to reflect these risks; in February alone, net foreign selling in the domestic market amounted to approximately 3.70 trillion won.Unlike other major currencies, there is a lack of policy momentum to strengthen the won. While regions such as the EU and Japan maintain their currency strength through economic stimulus measures or expectations of interest rate hikes, South Korea faces additional risks such as weak domestic demand and political uncertainty. Experts believe that without a resolution to the tariff risks and political uncertainties, a short-term rebound in the won’s value is unlikely.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
3 Ways to Avoid the Mistake of Selling Profitable Stocks Too Early (Dec 2, 2022)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
3 Ways to Avoid the Mistake of Selling Profitable Stocks Too Early (Dec 2, 2022)
SummaryTraders often sell too early and miss out on long-term profits.Three key hints can help avoid panic selling.It’s essential to learn rational trading instead of relying on emotional logic.As the impending recession frightens investors, many traders immediately sell stocks after hearing the cynical outlook of JPMorgan Chairman Jamie Diamond. Although history shows that the market always recovers, investors repeatedly oscillate between rational and panic selling.The S&P 500 index has increased 119-fold since 1969. As Morgan Housel explains in his book The Psychology of Money, "Investors should simply sit back and let their money grow." Despite various major global crises affecting the market, those who held onto the S&P 500 reaped enormous rewards. A famous adage—“Time in the market beats timing the market”—aptly illustrates that market timing is nearly impossible.Time and the power of compounding naturally drive success, so why do people sell too early?As a behavioral economist, I train traders to remain emotionally resilient during economic turmoil. I help them develop the strength to withstand volatility and the discipline to avoid premature selling. In this article, I share three tips that can benefit traders of all sizes.Why Do Investors Sell Too Early?First, let’s examine why traders fall into this trap. Trading is an emotional game rather than an analytical one. Research in behavioral finance and emotional regulation supports this assertion. Traders often incur losses not because they overlook flaws in a company’s financials, but because their emotional rules compel them to sell as soon as a stock’s price falls.Economic downturns, wars, and pandemics may temporarily damage the market, yet the data shows that doing nothing during these periods can still yield profits.1. Reaching Fair Value: Overcoming Emotional BiasHalo Effect:Traders become overly attached to a successful position, delaying the sale even when it is warranted.Loss Aversion:The natural aversion to realizing losses makes traders wait for a rebound in underperforming positions.Solutions:Quantify Qualitative Judgments:Assign measurable values to factors like a company’s competitive moat, management quality, and financial stability. Compare these metrics across your holdings to replace lower-ranked assets.Blank Slate Test:Imagine rebuilding your portfolio from scratch. This exercise helps remove emotional attachments and forces a more objective selection of assets.Maintain Terminal Inputs:Avoid frequently changing the final assumptions (growth, risk, profitability) in your DCF model.Regularly Review Business Characteristics:Instead of selling at the market cycle’s peak, consider liquidating positions when market sentiment is excessively exuberant.Partial Selling:For quality companies, reduce your position gradually rather than liquidating entirely.Set a Fair Value Range:Rather than fixating on a single fair value number, establish an expected outcome range to allow for flexibility.2. Theme Change: Coping with Shifts in Investment RationaleCompanies evolve over time and may experience unexpected events such as mergers, acquisitions, or CEO changes.Investors can become fixated on past decisions, even when the original investment thesis no longer holds.Solutions:Document Preliminary Sell Reasons:Record the risk factors and expectations you had at the time of investment, and review these notes if those factors materialize.Detect Warning Signals:Pay attention to indicators such as management changes or shifts in business segments—especially those that erode the company’s competitive moat.Philip Fisher’s Three-Year Rule:Consider selling if the company fails to meet performance expectations within three years, as a way to prepare for potential inertia.3. Protect Yourself from Habitual BehaviorNobel laureate Richard Thaler discovered that dinner guests tend to ruin their appetite with finger foods. To ensure guests wait for the main dish, he suggested clearing away the snack bowl from the table.Today, trading is easier than ever. Mobile applications make it simple to tap the “sell” button. To avoid panic selling, you must protect yourself from your own habits. Changing your behavior requires both physical and mental improvement.Tip No. 1: Trade Only on a Desktop ComputerJust as you wouldn’t eat when you’re not hungry, don’t sell when it isn’t necessary. The first tip to eliminate impulsive trades is to trade only on your desktop computer. Behavioral experts compare trading to gambling; traders will do anything to avoid losses while chasing high profits. Most people touch their phones around 2,617 times a day, constantly checking the latest stock prices. Even a small piece of market news suggesting chaos can trigger an unconscious sell order.Tip No. 2: Hire an Asset ManagerAre you managing all your assets yourself? My second tip is to delegate at least 80% of your portfolio to an asset manager. Directly controlling every asset exposes you to significant risk. The media may tempt you to sell solid stocks like Alphabet (GOOG), even when market conditions do not justify such a move, especially when volatile assets like cryptocurrencies are involved.Protect yourself by relying on professionals. Unlike self-managed portfolios, asset managers typically work within systems designed to eliminate emotionally driven trades. Keep only up to 20% of your cash under your direct control and delegate the rest to experts.Tip No. 3: Apply Simulation TheoryMy final advice is to expand on the simulation heuristic: the more you simulate a scenario, the more plausible it sounds, and eventually, you start accepting it as reality. Just as a small, clumsy lie can grow and become more elaborate over time until you believe your own fabrication, simulation theory teaches you to manage your expectations in volatile markets. If you can predict price fluctuations, you’re more likely to avoid impulsive selling. In essence, simulation theory is a mindset: “I know this stock will undergo a turbulent journey for the next 10 years, and I’m prepared for it.”Morgan Housel recommends holding value stocks for up to 30 years. During that period, multiple downturns—including recessions (on average every six years), pandemics, wars, and inflationary episodes—will occur. Acknowledging that volatility is 100% inevitable over a long investment career is a crucial step in emotionally preparing for a rollercoaster ride.There’s one volatility predictor that might surprise you. If you hold shares of Meta Platforms (META), be prepared for a rough ride. One study found that companies with strong CEOs can experience more price volatility. With Zuckerberg holding over 54% of the voting rights, this is not a reason to avoid selling META stock. Rather, it means you should apply simulation theory and anticipate volatility.In Conclusion...Removing the human element from trading can help prevent costly mistakes. Protect yourself and prepare mentally for market volatility. The three tips I have provided can help minimize human interference in trading and build emotional resilience. By trading only on your desktop to prevent impulsive selling, hiring an asset manager to avoid emotionally driven trades, and applying simulation theory to brace yourself for challenging market conditions, you can safeguard your investments. As Warren Buffett once said, “My life is the product of compounding.” Like Buffett, you should let your investments compound by holding onto them.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Why Is It Harder to Sell Than to Buy?
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Why Is It Harder to Sell Than to Buy?
When and How Should You Decide to Sell Stocks?Long-term investors typically consider three primary reasons when deciding to sell a stock: reaching fair value, capturing better opportunities, and a change in investment themes. However, emotional biases and cognitive errors can hinder rational sell decisions.Reaching Fair Value: Overcoming Emotional BiasHalo Effect: A tendency to cling to successful positions, which delays selling.Loss Aversion: A reluctance to realize losses on underperforming positions, preferring to wait for a recovery.Solutions:Quantify Qualitative Judgments: Measure company characteristics such as competitive moat, management quality, and financial soundness to compare with other holdings and replace lower-ranked assets.Blank Slate Test: Imagine rebuilding your portfolio from scratch and select assets anew, thereby eliminating emotional attachment.Maintain Terminal Inputs: Be cautious about frequently altering the final assumptions (growth, risk, profitability) in your DCF model.Regularly Consider Business Characteristics: Instead of selling at the market cycle’s peak, consider liquidating positions when market sentiment is exceptionally strong.Partial Selling: For high-quality companies, consider reducing your position size rather than selling entirely.Set a Fair Value Range: Establish an expected range of outcomes rather than a single precise fair value, allowing for flexibility.Theme Change: Addressing Deviations in Investment RationaleCompanies evolve over time, and events such as mergers, acquisitions, or CEO changes can occur unexpectedly.Investors may become overly attached to past investment decisions even when the original rationale is no longer valid or has changed.Solutions:Document Preliminary Sell Reasons: Record the risk factors you anticipated at the time of investment, and review these when they materialize.Detect Warning Signs: Pay close attention to changes such as management turnover or shifts in business segments, especially factors that weaken the company’s competitive advantage.Philip Fisher’s Three-Year Rule: Consider selling if the company fails to perform as expected within three years, as a hedge against inertia.Minimizing Regret and Improving Investment DecisionsRecognize that sell decisions, whether the stock rises or falls afterward, may be accompanied by regret.Learn from past sell decisions to improve future decision-making.If you own a fundamentally strong company for the long term, exercising patience is crucial.Conclusion:Selling is both a portfolio management tool and a means of risk control. It is important to recognize the inherent biases and difficulties in making sell decisions and to determine the optimal selling point through rational analysis that excludes emotions. Be patient and focused, and sell only when there is a clear rationale, such as "better opportunities" or "a shift in the investment thesis."
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Lessons from 5 Major Market Collapses Over the Past 150 Years (Mar 7, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Lessons from 5 Major Market Collapses Over the Past 150 Years (Mar 7, 2025)
Five Years After the COVID Shock: Investment Lessons from Historical Market CollapsesIn the five years following the COVID-19 pandemic, the stock market has experienced dramatic declines followed by remarkable recoveries. While the plunge in March 2020 rebounded almost immediately, the downturn at the end of 2021 was deeper and more prolonged. What lessons can we learn from these recent market collapses?Long-Term Rewards Amid UncertaintyThe timing of market recoveries is unpredictable.Investors who avoid panic selling during market collapses are rewarded over the long term.Markets always recover and eventually reach new highs.Lessons from 5 Major Market Collapses Over the Past 150 YearsLet’s examine the fluctuations in investment value through five of the most severe market collapses over the past 150 years:World War I and the Influenza Pandemic:After peaking in 1911, the market began to decline, a trend that worsened with the outbreak of World War I in 1914. A $100 investment fell to $49 before recovering.The Great Depression of 1929:A $100 investment plunged to $21 by 1932. Excessive economic exuberance led to a collapse that took more than four years to recover.The Great Depression and World War II:After recovering to 1929 levels in 1936, the market fell again. Due to shifts in Roosevelt’s policies and the impacts of World War II, a $100 investment dropped to $52 in 1938 before recovering in 1945.Inflation, the Vietnam War, and Watergate:Political uncertainty and OPEC’s oil embargo caused a 51.9% decline. A $100 investment fell to $48 and took over nine years to recover.The Lost Decade (Dot-com Bubble & Financial Crisis):The dot-com crash reduced a $100 investment to $52, which was then further eroded by the subsequent housing bubble collapse and financial crisis.Long-Term Investing Shines Through VolatilityAn investment of $100 made in the early 2000s would have grown to over $300 by January 2025. Had that $100 been invested in 1870, its value today would be approximately $3,125,500.Lessons on How to Cope with Market VolatilityMarkets with high volatility are still worth enduring.Market collapses are always frightening, but recovery is inevitable.Construct a well-diversified portfolio that aligns with your investment style and time horizon.Investors who maintain a long-term perspective will ultimately be rewarded.In conclusion, while market collapses are inevitable, history has proven that markets always recover. The key to successful investing is to avoid succumbing to fear during downturns and to maintain a long-term perspective.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 자민
·
4 months ago
0
0
Trump dismisses stock market concerns, predicting tariffs will robustly strengthen the U.S. (Mar 7, 2025)
Sell
Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 자민
·
4 months ago
0
0
Trump dismisses stock market concerns, predicting tariffs will robustly strengthen the U.S. (Mar 7, 2025)
US President Donald Trump made it clear that he would not consider the stock market’s reaction when making decisions on tariff policies. During an executive order signing ceremony at the White House, he told reporters, “The market is not relevant at all,” adding, “I don’t look at the market. In the long run, America will have a very strong economy under the policies we are currently implementing.”These remarks sharply contrast with the so-called “Trump put” effect that some experts had anticipated during his previous administration. In fact, recent trends in the New York stock market have shown declines—particularly among technology stocks—with the Nasdaq Composite Index falling more than 10% from its previous peak, thereby amplifying overall market uncertainty. The US Secretary of Commerce also stated that minor fluctuations in the stock market are not a crucial factor in policy decisions, emphasizing a focus on economic recovery.This government stance of ignoring market reactions could further increase short-term market volatility. With tariffs and protectionist trade policies in effect, the ensuing drop in stock prices is likely to dampen investor sentiment. Therefore, it is advisable to liquidate positions in the short term and carefully monitor how market trends evolve based on policy direction and global economic factors. Since President Trump’s long-term economic strengthening policies do not factor in market responses, a conservative adjustment of positions followed by a cautious re-entry into the market is recommended.
article
Sell
Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
ChatGPT for Day Trading: Stock Selection via Generative AI (Mar 3, 2024)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
ChatGPT for Day Trading: Stock Selection via Generative AI (Mar 3, 2024)
This study uses ChatGPT to develop and evaluate a short-term trading strategy for the stock market. Twitter news data is fed into ChatGPT to generate lists of stocks to buy and sell, and the profitability of the resulting trading strategy is analyzed. The key finding is that ChatGPT can generate profitable short-term trading signals not only by processing company-specific news but also by incorporating macroeconomic news. Moreover, the strategy’s performance is especially pronounced in stocks where arbitrage opportunities are limited, suggesting that ChatGPT can extract pricing distortion signals from text data.ChatGPT generates buy and sell lists using Twitter news data—specifically, tweets posted by Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal (now on X).Data Characteristics:Twitter data is concise, with tweets limited to 280 characters, typically consisting of 40–70 words.News Types:ChatGPT uses a diverse range of news articles that include both company-specific information and macroeconomic news.Data Volume:ChatGPT processes an average of 795 tweets per day.Timing of Information:ChatGPT uses tweets posted during the 24 hours before the market opens to generate that day’s trading strategy. For example, for a particular day’s day trading strategy, tweets from market open the previous day up until just before the current market open are provided.Company-Specific News:Only about 7% of the Twitter news articles used by ChatGPT contain company-specific information. Nonetheless, ChatGPT successfully identifies relevant companies by analyzing news that is not company-specific.Considerations in ChatGPT’s Sell List Creation:Sector or Industry-Level Analysis:ChatGPT places greater emphasis on sector or industry-level information rather than on individual company characteristics when selecting stocks to sell. This suggests that ChatGPT tends to include stocks from sectors exhibiting a broad downturn or increased risk factors in its sell lists.Retail Investor Nighttime Buying Pressure:The sell strategy based on ChatGPT’s sell lists is related to the nighttime buying pressure from retail investors. This buying pressure can lead to a reversal at night, implying that ChatGPT may select stocks that attract significant retail investor attention as sell candidates.Extraction of Mispricing Signals:ChatGPT extracts mispricing signals from the news data to generate its sell lists. This tendency is particularly strong in stocks where arbitrage is difficult, suggesting that ChatGPT can identify stocks with a higher probability of short-term declines by leveraging market inefficiencies.News Article Analysis:ChatGPT analyzes a variety of news articles, not limited to company-specific information, to select relevant stocks. This demonstrates that ChatGPT is capable of processing a wide range of text data and generating mispricing signals from news that is not directly related to individual companies. For example, it can analyze negative outlooks on certain industries or deteriorating macroeconomic indicators to include stocks from those sectors in the sell list.Keyword Analysis:ChatGPT tends to focus on news articles that contain keywords related to regulation, uncertainty, poor performance, and economic concerns. This allows ChatGPT to detect changes in a company’s fundamentals or its external environment and incorporate stocks with negative factors into the sell list.Specific Methodology for Creating ChatGPT’s Sell List:Using Twitter News Data:ChatGPT uses news data posted on Twitter by Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal. The conciseness of Twitter data makes it well-suited for analysis by ChatGPT.News Article Analysis:ChatGPT analyzes a diverse range of news articles that include both company-specific and macroeconomic news.Extraction of Mispricing Signals:ChatGPT extracts mispricing-related signals from the news data to generate the sell list, especially for stocks where arbitrage opportunities are limited.Sector or Industry-Level Analysis:ChatGPT prioritizes sector or industry-level information over individual company characteristics when selecting stocks to sell.Keyword Analysis:ChatGPT pays attention to news articles containing specific keywords, such as those related to regulatory issues, uncertainty, poor performance, or economic concerns, to build the sell list.Retail Investor Nighttime Buying Pressure:ChatGPT selects stocks as sell candidates that are subject to nighttime buying pressure from retail investors, which can lead to a reversal in the strategy’s nighttime performance.Prompt Engineering:Prompts are used to instruct ChatGPT to execute a "news trading" strategy by analyzing news and selecting stocks, as well as to direct it to choose stocks to buy or sell "for profit." This prompts ChatGPT to generate lists aimed at maximizing returns.Batch Processing of Data:Due to the token limit that ChatGPT can process at one time, the news data is split into multiple batches. For tweets with high token counts, particularly nighttime news, the data is divided into several batches.Repetitive Execution:ChatGPT is instructed to generate buy and sell stock lists 30 times to reinforce the signal and ensure that the portfolio contains a number of stocks comparable to the decile portfolios commonly discussed in asset pricing literature.Comprehensive Signal Generation:ChatGPT generates a comprehensive signal by considering both company-specific and non-company-specific news. This means that ChatGPT is capable of processing a wide array of text data and generating mispricing signals even from non-company-specific news.Process:Collect Twitter data.Write and input prompts into ChatGPT.Divide the news data into batches that conform to the token limit.Generate the buy and sell lists 30 times based on the data.Generate sell signals based on the produced lists.Execute a short-selling strategy.Portfolio Construction Using ChatGPT Signals:Generation of BUY and SELL Signals:Using Twitter News: ChatGPT is instructed to select stocks to buy or sell based on tweets posted by Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal.Batch Processing of Data: Tweets are divided into multiple batches due to token limitations.Strengthening Signal Intensity: Buy and sell lists are generated 30 times for each batch of tweets to strengthen the signals.Construction of BUY and SELL Portfolios:Basic Portfolio: Stocks with BUY signals are equally weighted in the BUY portfolio, and those with SELL signals are equally weighted in the SELL portfolio.SUM_BUY and SUM_SELL Portfolios: These portfolios are constructed using SUM_BUY and SUM_SELL signals, which represent the total count of times a stock is included in the buy or sell lists, respectively.NET_BUY and NET_SELL Portfolios: NET_BUY and NET_SELL portfolios are constructed by subtracting the SELL signal count from the BUY signal count, indicating the net buy or sell signals.Long-Short Portfolio Construction:BMS (BUY minus SELL): A long-short portfolio is created by subtracting the returns of the SELL portfolio from those of the BUY portfolio.SUM_BMS: Calculated by subtracting the SUM_SELL portfolio’s returns from those of the SUM_BUY portfolio.NET_BMS: Calculated by subtracting the NET_SELL portfolio’s returns from the NET_BUY portfolio’s returns.Performance Measurement of the Portfolio:Intraday (Open-to-Close) Returns: The portfolio is constructed at market open and held until market close to measure intraday returns.CAPM Alpha: The risk-adjusted returns of the portfolio are measured by calculating the CAPM alpha.Considerations:Industry Concentration: Portfolios generated by ChatGPT tend to have low industry concentration.Economic Interconnectedness: ChatGPT may select stocks that are economically connected through supply chains.Limits to Arbitrage: ChatGPT signals tend to perform more strongly in stocks where arbitrage opportunities are limited.The trading strategy based on ChatGPT-generated BUY and SELL lists achieved a monthly return of 0.546% after adjusting for market factors, while combining and reinforcing the buy and sell signals led to a monthly return of 3.717%. These returns were primarily generated from short positions in stocks where arbitrage is limited.ChatGPT tends to select stocks for selling based on sector or industry-level information rather than individual company characteristics, which helps it identify mispricing in individual stocks.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
US Stagflation Fears Rise With Latest Economic Data (Mar 5,2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
US Stagflation Fears Rise With Latest Economic Data (Mar 5,2025)
Recently, concerns about stagflation have been raised as the U.S. economy exhibits both declining consumer spending and rising prices. In January, consumer expenditures fell sharply, and companies have warned of price increases driven by tariffs. While experts argue that temporary factors should be taken into account, if stagflation materializes, the Federal Reserve could face a difficult choice between stimulating the economy and curbing inflation.EY’s Chief Economist Gregory Daco stated, "There are slight signs of stagflation, but it is not at that stage yet." Recent indicators reveal weakening sentiment, declining consumption, and rising inflation expectations. This deterioration in sentiment is driven by President Trump’s punitive tariffs and cuts in public spending, as evidenced by a steep drop in consumer confidence in February and record-high inflation expectation indicators.A series of recent U.S. data shows a resurgence of inflation and a slowdown in economic activity, sparking concerns that the world’s largest economy may be heading into a period of stagflation.In January, following an active holiday shopping season, consumer spending fell by the largest margin in nearly four years. Americans have become increasingly pessimistic about the economic outlook, and companies are warning of price hikes due to the aggressive tariff policies of the Trump administration.Economists caution against overinterpreting a month’s data, which may be distorted by factors such as severe winter weather. However, if the risk of stagflation—a situation characterized by low growth and high inflation—materializes over the coming months, the Federal Reserve will face a tough decision between supporting the labor market and completing its long-standing efforts to rein in inflation.Both large corporations and small businesses have expressed concerns about the future outlook. The CEO of Ford warned that tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico could hurt the automotive industry, while Chipotle mentioned the possibility of food tariffs. Small businesses are worried about frozen expansion plans, price hikes, and declining profits, with a Harris Poll indicating that about 60% of American adults expect prices to rise due to Trump’s tariffs. For example, NaturePedic, an organic mattress manufacturer, is facing inevitable cost increases due to tariffs on imported materials and is calling for tariff exemptions on materials that are not produced domestically or that are excessively expensive.S. Treasury yields, which had reached record highs just before President Trump’s inauguration, have been trending downward, and bond investors are mindful of the possibility that the Federal Reserve might become more concerned with an economic slowdown than with inflation.Federal Reserve officials have begun to acknowledge the possibility of a recession amid persistently high inflation, presenting a difficult challenge for the central bank, which must pursue both price stability and maximum employment. Lowering interest rates can boost the labor market but risks fuelling inflation, while keeping rates high can curb price increases but may trigger a recession.Historical examples show that the Fed has previously responded aggressively to suppress inflation and curb inflation expectations. In the 1970s and 1980s, the Fed raised rates to very high levels, which led to rising unemployment and a recession.This time, by keeping inflation expectations low, the Fed has managed to significantly suppress inflation without triggering a recession. However, as inflation expectations rise, the Fed may have to maintain high interest rates even in the face of economic weakness.Diane Swank, KPMG’s Chief Economist, remarked, "The Fed might have been slow to raise rates, but stagflation is a completely different issue for the Fed. The Fed cannot allow stagflation to take hold."President Trump has argued that tax cuts, deregulation, and tariff hikes will stimulate investment across the economy. Steven Miron, who was named chairman of the White House Economic Advisory Board by Trump, stated that despite high tariffs, a "great economy" is achievable.However, companies are expressing their concerns. J.D. Yuing of COE Distributing, an office furniture wholesaler based in Pennsylvania, commented, "If our prices rise, our customers’ prices will also go up. This is something that must be fully understood. If implemented on a wide scale, there is no choice but for everyone’s costs to increase."
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Technical Trading Strategies for Surviving a Bear Market (Feb 8, 2016)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
박재훈투영인
·
4 months ago
0
0
Technical Trading Strategies for Surviving a Bear Market (Feb 8, 2016)
The study "Performance of Technical Analysis in Declining Global Markets" analyzes the effectiveness of technical trading strategies during global market downturns. The key findings are summarized below.ObjectiveThis research examines the performance of technical analysis during global market declines and evaluates whether technical strategies provide higher returns than the Buy & Hold strategy.Data & MethodologyThe study uses data from 1,050 companies across 21 countries.Key data sources include OSIRIS and Yahoo Finance databases.The analysis focuses on 2010 (non-declining trend) and 2011 (significant global market decline), with an emphasis on 2011.Various technical indicators, including SMA (Simple Moving Average) and WMA (Weighted Moving Average), were utilized. Specifically, SMA5, SMA10, SMA15, WMA5, WMA10, and WMA15 were applied.Three trading strategies were tested: Long (buy-and-hold), Short (short-selling), and Long-Short (combined approach) to ensure robustness.T-tests and regression analysis were employed for hypothesis testing.Buy/Sell SignalsBuy Signal: Generated when the stock price crosses above the SMA or WMA. This occurs when P0 > SMAn and P-1 < SMA-1 or P0 > WMAn and P-1 < WMA-1.Sell Signal: Triggered when the stock price crosses below the SMA or WMA. This occurs when P0 < SMAn and P-1 > SMA-1 or P0 < WMAn and P-1 > WMA-1.SMA and WMA were used to generate buy/sell signals, determining optimal trading points based on price movements relative to moving averages.Since WMA assigns greater weight to recent prices, it reacts more sensitively to price fluctuations compared to SMA.Key FindingsThe study analyzed the profitability of technical trading strategies during 2011, a year characterized by significant global market declines.Overall ProfitabilityTechnical trading strategies outperformed the Buy & Hold strategy.This suggests that technical analysis can be effective in bear markets.Performance by StrategyLong (Buy-and-Hold) Strategy: SMA-based long trades yielded negative returns (-5.37% for SMA5, -10.85% for SMA10, -11.15% for SMA15). This indicates that long positions are not suitable in bear markets.Short (Short-Selling) Strategy: SMA-based short trades generated positive returns (+9.61% for SMA5, +7.79% for SMA10, +7.84% for SMA15). This suggests that shorting is an effective strategy during downturns.Long-Short Strategy: The SMA5-based Long-Short strategy produced the highest return of 19.16%.Performance by IndicatorBoth SMA and WMA exhibited similar trends.Shorter-term indicators (SMA5 and WMA5) tended to generate higher returns.Comparison to Buy & HoldAll technical trading strategies outperformed Buy & Hold after adjusting for market declines.This indicates that the Buy & Hold strategy is less effective during bear markets.ConclusionDuring a global market downturn like 2011, technical trading strategies yielded better results than the Buy & Hold approach.Short-term strategies and shorter-period technical indicators (e.g., SMA5, WMA5) were particularly effective.Key TakeawaysInvestors should adjust trading strategies based on market conditions.In bear markets, technical analysis-based short-term strategies tend to be more profitable, while Buy & Hold is more effective in bull markets.Final ThoughtsThis study provides empirical evidence that technical analysis can be useful during market downturns, reinforcing the importance of adjusting investment strategies based on market conditions. Additionally, factors such as market size should be considered when evaluating the effectiveness of technical analysis.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
4 months ago
0
0
U.S. Economic Growth Forecast at -1.5%… Is Recession Becoming a Reality? (Mar 1, 2025)
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
4 months ago
0
0
U.S. Economic Growth Forecast at -1.5%… Is Recession Becoming a Reality? (Mar 1, 2025)
The U.S. economic growth forecast for the first quarter has been sharply revised downward. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model now projects a -1.5% growth rate, a significant 3.8 percentage point drop from the previous estimate of 2.3%. This downward revision has been ongoing since late January, raising growing concerns in the market about a potential recession.The primary factors behind the declining growth rate are the slowdown in personal consumption expenditures (PCE) growth and a sharp drop in net exports. The real PCE growth rate for Q1 has been revised down from 2.3% to 1.3%, while the net export contribution to GDP has plummeted from -0.41 percentage points to -3.70 percentage points. Analysts attribute this to the anticipated tariff measures announced by President Trump, which have impacted market sentiment, leading to stagnating exports and rising imports.While private sector economists surveyed in the Blue Chip Consensus still project a growth rate in the high-1% to mid-2% range, the GDPNow model’s influence on Federal Reserve policy decisions means investors should closely monitor upcoming economic data. Additionally, with about a month left in the first quarter, further forecast revisions remain a possibility.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
Stock Picks
user
셀스마트 판다
·
3 months ago
3
0
🎉The Smartest Way to Sell — Now available as an App!📱
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
3 months ago
3
0
🎉The Smartest Way to Sell — Now available as an App!📱
Now, experience SellSmart faster, easier, and smarter right from your phone.Whether you’re on the subway or lying in bed,you can now check “Should I sell now?” instantly, anytime, anywhere.📌 All Your Favorite Features — Now in the App!✔️ Sharp, data-driven sell-side articles✔️ Smart strategies powered by real market insights✔️ Sector & theme-based selling signals👇 Download now and take control of your portfolio decisions!🍎 Available on the App Store🌌 Available on Google Play
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
Tax Loss Harvest
user
셀스마트 인디
·
3 months ago
5
0
The Sweet Trap of Covered Call ETFs: Yield Comes with Hidden Taxes and Risks
Sell
Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 인디
·
3 months ago
5
0
The Sweet Trap of Covered Call ETFs: Yield Comes with Hidden Taxes and Risks
Amid persistent market volatility and high interest rates, investors are flocking to covered call ETFs as an income-generating alternative. Some of these ETFs have reported distribution yields of up to 15% over the past year, drawing considerable interest. But behind these attractive numbers lie tax implications and structural risks that investors should not ignore.At its core, a covered call strategy is simple: the fund buys underlying assets (e.g., stocks or indices) and sells call options to collect premiums. For example, if an investor buys a stock at $100 and sells a one-month $150 call, they receive an upfront premium. If the stock does not rise significantly, the option expires worthless, and the premium becomes profit. However, if the stock soars above the strike, upside gains are capped, limiting total return potential.Example: Covered Call Payoff Structure – NVIDIAStructural Limitations and Tax SurprisesRecently, Korean asset managers have launched a wave of covered call ETFs, aggressively marketing them as tax-free yield solutions. However, many investors were caught off guard when distributions turned out to be taxable as dividend income, not the tax-exempt option premiums they expected.The issue stems from how Korean equity dividends are distributed. Since domestic dividends are mostly concentrated in March, the majority of ETF payouts during this period consist of taxable income, while non-taxable option premium income plays a smaller role. As a result, some investors faced unexpected tax bills, despite being promised “tax-advantaged” products.Investment ImplicationsIt’s important to understand that covered call ETFs sell upside potential in exchange for monthly income. The dividends received are not “free money” but compensation for giving up future gains.Investors should carefully review the fund’s distribution breakdown, tax treatment, and underlying strategy, rather than relying solely on headline yields or marketing claims. While covered call strategies can be effective in range-bound or volatile markets, they are not magic bullets for long-term growth.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Sell
Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
3 months ago
1
0
Turning Losses into Tax Savings: The Magic of Tax Loss Harvesting
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
3 months ago
1
0
Turning Losses into Tax Savings: The Magic of Tax Loss Harvesting
❓What Is Tax Loss Harvesting?Not every investment results in a profit—and that's okay.When you handle losses strategically, they can work in your favor—by reducing your tax bill.This approach is known as Tax Loss Harvesting.In simple terms, it's the strategy of selling losing investments to offset the taxes on your gains.📌 How Does It Work?Here’s a simple breakdown:Let’s say you invest $10,000 each in Stock A and Stock B.Stock A performs well and is now worth $20,000—a $10,000 gainStock B, unfortunately, drops to $5,000, resulting in a $5,000 lossIf you sell both investments:Normally, the $10,000 gain from Stock A would be taxable.But the $5,000 loss from Stock B can offset that gain, reducing your taxable gain to $5,000.👉 That means you just cut your capital gains tax bill in half!If your losses exceed your gains, you can even carry forward the unused losses to reduce taxes in future years.🚨 Important Rule: The ‘Wash Sale’There’s one critical rule to remember: the Wash Sale Rule.This rule prevents you from claiming a tax loss if you buy the same or a substantially identical investment within 30 days before or after the sale.For example, if you sell Samsung Electronics at a loss and repurchase it 14 days later, the IRS will disallow the tax loss.So you must avoid buying the same asset for at least 30 days after selling it.🧐 Who Can Benefit from This Strategy?Anyone facing a high tax bill due to large capital gainsInvestors holding losing positions they’re ready to part withThose using taxable accounts (This strategy doesn’t apply to tax-advantaged accounts like IRAs or 401(k)s)🔍 3 Easy Steps to Start Tax Loss HarvestingIdentify and sell underperforming assets to realize the lossUse the loss to offset capital gains—and even up to $3,000 in ordinary income annuallyReinvest in a similar but not identical stock or ETF to maintain your portfolio allocationIt’s a simple but powerful strategy to reduce taxes and keep your investments growing.📋 Quick SummaryYou can use investment losses to reduce taxes on gains from other investments.Up to $3,000 in excess losses can be applied to ordinary income annually.Unused losses can be carried forward to future tax years.Avoid buying the same or similar investment within 30 days—that’s the wash sale rule.Tax loss harvesting is an easy, smart strategy that turns losses into tax-saving opportunities—helping boost long-term investment returns.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
Nowcast
user
SellSmartR
·
2 days ago
0
0
CORE16 Model Forecasts June CPI at 2.6 Percent
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
SellSmartR
·
2 days ago
0
0
CORE16 Model Forecasts June CPI at 2.6 Percent
You can check out CORE16’s proprietary CPI forecasting model at the link below.👉 https://core16-cpi-nowcast.streamlit.app/CORE16 CPI model predicted June CPI (to be announced in July) at 2.6 percent.What is CPI, and Why Does It Need to Be PredictedThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) is not just a basic inflation number.CPI is one of the most important economic indicators that moves interest rates, bonds, and equity markets.The Federal Reserve, in particular, uses CPI as a core reference when setting monetary policy.In that sense, understanding CPI is essentially predicting the direction of the market.But CPI is released with a lag—each month’s figure is reported in the following month.Before the official number comes out, the market has no choice but to rely on speculation, and that gap in visibility has long created differences in investor timing. To address this gap, the Cleveland Fed developed a CPI nowcasting model.By incorporating high-frequency data such as oil prices, food costs, and gasoline prices,the model provides real-time CPI estimates even before official releases.It is structurally simple, but its speed and interpretability have earned it a strong reputation as a practical tool for market insight.Inspired by the Cleveland Fed, CORE16 built its own CPI forecasting model tailored for domestic investors.Rather than focusing on complex algorithms, the goal was clear:deliver the fastest and most reasonable estimate based on the latest available data. The CORE16 model updates daily in real time.Between 2024 and March 2025, it reduced forecast error by approximately 20 percent compared to existing methods.Looking ahead, CORE16 plans to expand beyond CPI to cover employment data, retail sales, corporate earnings outlooks, and more.Our mission is to help investors see the market more clearly and respond faster—through data-driven insight and proactive decision-making.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 KIM
·
1 week ago
0
0
Retirement Funds Embrace Risk: A New Era for Private Assets
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 KIM
·
1 week ago
0
0
Retirement Funds Embrace Risk: A New Era for Private Assets
Why BlackRock Is Reshaping Retirement PortfoliosIn June 2025, BlackRock—the world’s largest asset manager—announced a shift in how it approaches retirement investing. Its flagship Target Date Funds (TDFs) will now include private equity and private credit—two asset classes long considered too risky or opaque for the average investor.But this isn’t just a new product mix. Retirement funds hold trillions. A change here reverberates across markets.TDFs, in BriefTDFs automatically adjust over time based on your planned retirement year (e.g., TDF 2050). Younger investors are exposed to more stocks early on, shifting into safer assets as retirement nears.Until now, that mix was limited to public stocks, bonds, and a bit of real estate. BlackRock says that’s no longer enough. Why Private Assets?Private Equity: Invests in unlisted companies. High growth, low liquidity.Private Credit: Direct loans to businesses, bypassing banks. Attractive yields, but riskier.These markets are less transparent and highly illiquid. Historically restricted, they’re now being brought into mainstream retirement strategies.Why Were They Banned Before?Because of structural risks:Lock-up periods tie up investor funds for years.Private firms share less information than public ones.Weak regulation raises default and fraud risk.Too much money chasing private deals can inflate asset bubbles.Why Now?1.   Regulations are loosening.Post-Biden rollbacks under the new administration have softened financial rules—especially around private lending.2.   Rate cuts are coming.With U.S. rates at ~4.25% and likely to fall, leveraged private deals (M&A, buyouts) could thrive.3.   The 60:40 portfolio is outdated.BlackRock CEO Larry Fink now recommends 50:30:20, with private assets playing a formal role in long-term growth and diversification.What It SignalsThis isn’t just a BlackRock update—it’s a message to the market:Private capital is entering the core of global portfolios.Expect more retail exposure to private markets, growing flows into unlisted firms, and a rethinking of what “retirement-safe” really means.But with more exposure comes more risk. Shadow banking, liquidity mismatches, and regulatory blind spots could all become flashpoints.The Bottom LinePrivate assets offer promise—but also complexity. As they move into the retirement mainstream, expect richer returns and tougher questions. The very definition of “secure retirement” is evolving—and fast.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
NONE
No Relevant Stock
Politics
user
셀스마트 판다
·
3 months ago
0
0
Korean CDS Premium Rebounds Amid Political Uncertainty and Rising U.S. Tariff Pressure (25.03.30)
Sell
Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock
user
셀스마트 판다
·
3 months ago
0
0
Korean CDS Premium Rebounds Amid Political Uncertainty and Rising U.S. Tariff Pressure (25.03.30)
Korea's 5-year Credit Default Swap (CDS) premium is rebounding sharply amid persistent political uncertainty and escalating tariff pressures from the U.S., raising concerns about the country's sovereign credit risk. As of March 27, the premium stood at 36.36 basis points (bps), up significantly from its recent low of 28.13bps recorded on February 27. The premium previously peaked at 40.42bps in mid-January, highlighting heightened market caution.Political instability remains a critical driver of risk sentiment as the Constitutional Court delayed its impeachment ruling against President Yoon Suk-yeol from March to April amid intense protests. Citi has warned prolonged political uncertainty could place downward pressure on Korea's sovereign credit rating and weaken economic policy stability. Similarly, Nomura notes that ongoing uncertainty could prompt investors to anticipate further rate cuts by the Bank of Korea, increasing the risk premium on Korean assets.Externally, Korea faces renewed economic threats following President Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on foreign automobiles starting April 2, directly impacting Korea’s key export industry. S&P recently highlighted that such tariffs pose substantial risks to Korea's export-dependent economy, leading multiple international institutions—including Capital Economics, Barclays, HSBC, and S&P—to revise down Korea's 2025 GDP growth forecasts.Foreign investor sentiment has also notably deteriorated, shifting to net selling in Korean government bond futures. Specifically, net outflows from 3-year bonds began on March 25, while 10-year bonds have seen continuous outflows since March 18. JP Morgan emphasizes that Korea’s financial markets urgently require clearer signals regarding the impeachment timeline and forthcoming economic stimulus measures.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Sell
Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock