International arrivals (Q1 YoY): –4.4%, March alone: –10%
ICE deportations YTD: ~37,000 people
U.S. tourism share of GDP: 2.5%
2024 foreign visitor spending: $2.9 trillion, linked to 15 million jobs
Canada-U.S. air bookings: –70% YoY, est. $2.2B loss in Canadian tourist spending
Opinion
Heightened border scrutiny and immigration policy shifts are accelerating visitor flight, beyond short-term booking cancellations. This trend could signal prolonged weakness for the U.S. tourism economy, especially in air travel, lodging, and consumer services.
Core Sell Point
Declining inbound tourism may lead to lower revenue across airlines, hotels, and consumer sectors, significantly weakening investment appeal for travel-exposed industries in the medium term.
The U.S. tourism industry is showing early signs of systemic contraction, following stricter immigration enforcement and tighter border screenings introduced by the Trump administration. From January to March 2025, the number of international arrivals dropped –4.4% year-over-year, with a steeper –10% decline in March alone. Atlanta International Airport reported a 5% drop in traffic, and alarm bells are ringing across the travel and hospitality sectors.
The U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has deported approximately 37,000 people year-to-date, averaging 450 per day, further discouraging foreign entry.
Tourism contributes 2.5% of U.S. GDP, with $2.9 trillion in annual foreign tourist spending and supporting 15 million jobs. The shock is already materializing: airfare bookings from Canada are down 70% YoY, and the estimated loss in Canadian consumer spending alone could reach $2.2 billion.
While the U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) initially projected growth in international arrivals for 2025, cancellations in both leisure and business segments are rising. Analysts warn that if aggressive screening policies, trade tensions, and anti-American sentiment persist, a long-term recovery in the tourism sector may be at risk.
[Compliance Note]
All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.
The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.
Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
