-In April, the stock market nearly recovered to end-of-March levels.
-The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield also returned to levels seen at the end of March.
-The U.S. Dollar Index dropped about 10% from early January highs, hitting a 52-week low.
-White House economic advisor Stephen Miran supports a weak dollar policy.
-Miran emphasizes tariffs and careful execution to drive global trade restructuring.
Opinion
Despite extreme volatility in April, both equities and bonds reverted close to their previous levels, while the dollar continued a clear weakening trend.
This aligns with the White House’s trade restructuring goals, but actual policy execution appears lacking.
Although markets and policy intentions temporarily aligned, the lack of disciplined execution is amplifying long-term uncertainty.
Core Sell Point
Markets and policy are moving in the intended direction, but weak execution leaves uncertainty unresolved.
Back to Square One — But Doubts Persist
April has shaped up to be one of the most volatile months in market history. Now, as we approach the final days of the month, equity markets have almost fully returned to where they stood at the end of March. Whether the S&P 500 can build enough momentum to break through the 5,500 resistance level remains to be seen. However, the past month has largely been a journey back to the starting line.
Similarly, the U.S. Treasury market experienced significant turbulence. Despite widespread fears of mass bond outflows, the 10-year yield is back to its late-March levels.
While stocks and bonds made a lot of noise with little real movement, the dollar continued to slide. After peaking in early January, the U.S. Dollar Index fell around 5% by late March. Following the "Day of Liberation," the decline accelerated — the index dropped another 5%, hitting its 52-week low.
Interestingly, this dollar weakness seems to align with the administration’s goals. Stephen Miran, Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), has been an outspoken supporter of a weaker dollar to help narrow the trade deficit and boost the competitiveness of American exports. In his 41-page essay, "A User's Guide to Reconstructing the Global Trade System," Miran outlines how to address economic imbalances stemming from the dollar’s overvaluation as a global reserve currency.
Miran advocates for tariffs as one of several tools to aid in the restructuring of global trade. However, he emphasizes that success hinges on execution, concluding:
"The Trump administration could reconstruct the global trade and financial system to favor American interests, but the path is narrow and will require careful planning, precise execution, and measures to minimize negative side effects."
In reality, the sequence of events following the "Day of Liberation" might have been part of a broader plan — but so far, nothing about the implementation has seemed particularly careful or precise.
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