Trump suspended additional reciprocal tariffs (excluding China) for 90 days
Goldman Sachs retracted its U.S. recession forecast following the news
-GDP growth forecast: +0.5%
-Recession probability (next 12 months): 45%
Opinion
While the temporary suspension has soothed near-term market anxiety, the core 10% tariffs and sector-specific measures remain in place, keeping trade uncertainty alive.
Core Sell Point
Even with the tariff suspension, effective tariff rates are expected to rise by around 15 percentage points, which could weigh on corporate margins and consumer demand over the medium term.
On April 9 (local time), President Donald Trump announced a 90-day suspension on select reciprocal tariffs, excluding China. The unexpected move triggered a swift sentiment shift on Wall Street, which had been rattled by trade policy uncertainty.
Notably, Goldman Sachs reversed its U.S. recession call just one hour after initially projecting a downturn, returning to a soft-landing scenario.
Key Developments
✅ Trump’s Announcement
90-day suspension of additional reciprocal tariffs for countries excluding China
Existing 10% baseline tariffs will remain in place
Sector-specific additional tariffs will proceed as planned
✅ Goldman Sachs Outlook Shift
Before Trump’s statement: Adopted a recession scenario, assigning a 65% probability
After the announcement: Reverted to non-recession baseline
U.S. GDP forecast revised to +0.5%
12-month recession probability cut to 45%
Goldman noted that “effective tariff rates will still rise by close to 15 percentage points,” suggesting the macro impact may unfold gradually rather than immediately.
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