NVIDIA
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셀스마트 판다
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5 days ago
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Nvidia Breaks $4 Trillion—And Flashes a Rare Triple Signal
Nvidia Flashes Three Simultaneous Bullish Signals A $4T milestone backed by a rare technical convergenceOn July 9, 2025, Nvidia (NVDA) sent a clear message to markets: not only did it become the most valuable public company in the world—it also triggered three major technical signals on the same day: •     Demarker(14) broke above 0.7•     Donchian(20) closed above the 20-day high•     CMO (Chande Momentum Oscillator) crossed above 50Each of these indicators alone suggests upside potential. But when they fire together, the story shifts: we’re not just seeing a short-term rally—we may be watching a new trend take hold.From Deepseek Fears to Global No.1Just months ago, Nvidia’s stock was under pressure. Fears of reduced AI capex (sparked by Deepseek) and renewed U.S.-China trade tensions weighed heavily. Now, Nvidia has touched an unprecedented $4 trillion in market cap—becoming the first to do so in history.While headlines focused on Nvidia overtaking Apple and Microsoft, what’s equally notable is the technical picture forming beneath that surge. Demarker(14) > 0.7Entering the overbought zoneThis indicator measures buying pressure by comparing recent highs and lows. While a reading above 0.7 is traditionally seen as “overbought,” Nvidia’s recent price behavior suggests strength, not fragility.Recent triggers: July 9, June 24, June 17Avg. return 1 month after trigger: +6.3%Top 25% outcomes: +13.5%Bottom 25%: -2.9%Win rate: 69.9%   Donchian(20) BreakoutBreaking the one-month highThis trend-following indicator signals when price closes above the highest point of the past 20 days. It often marks the point where even conservative, late-entry traders begin participating.•     Recent triggers: July 9, July 3, June 24•     Avg. return 1 month after trigger: +5.3%•     Top 25%: +11.9%•     Bottom 25%: -1.7%•     Win rate: 68.1% CMO > 50Momentum turning bullishCMO compares the strength of up days versus down days. A break above 50 typically suggests a shift toward upward momentum.•     Recent triggers: July 9, July 7, June 26•     Avg. return 1 month after trigger: +4.0%•     Top 25%: +10.7%•     Bottom 25%: -4.0%•     Win rate: 61.4% A Triple Convergence That MattersEach signal comes from a different angle:•     Demarker = market sentiment•     Donchian = price trend•     CMO = momentum strength When all three align on the same day, it’s not random—it’s a signal that the underlying market dynamics are synchronizing.Over the past decade, Demarker(14) > 0.7 has occurred 212 times. Its track record holds. Combine that with Donchian breakouts and momentum confirmation from CMO, and this isn’t just noise—it’s structure. Bottom Line: A Setup, Not a SpikeThis isn’t necessarily a “buy now or miss out” moment. But it may be the beginning of a new mid-term bullish cycle for Nvidia.Three signals. Three mechanisms. One direction.Technical analysis doesn’t predict the future. But when signals align, it gives you better odds—and better timing—for when to pay attention.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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Neutral
Neutral
NVDA
NVIDIA
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셀스마트 YUN
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1 week ago
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The New Front in AI: Compute Gigafactories and the Invisible Winners
The New Front in AI: Compute Gigafactories and the Infrastructure Behind the RacexAI’s Colossus, now under construction in Memphis, is more than just another data center. Dubbed a “gigafactory of compute,” the facility represents a turning point: the AI industry’s shift toward full-stack physical control.But xAI isn’t alone. Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Google, and Nvidia are all rapidly building their own AI supercomputing hubs. The reason? Winning in AI now depends less on having the best model—and more on owning the infrastructure to train it.Training frontier models like GPT-5 or Claude 3 requires not just GPUs, but vast arrays of stable power, advanced cooling, and high-throughput networking. Software alone no longer wins. Compute scale, speed, and control are becoming the true moat.Unexpected Winners: Servers and Power ProvidersThis infrastructure race is lifting companies that most AI investors overlook.Super Micro (SMCI) is emerging as the dominant builder of AI server systems. Already producing most H100 and B100-based configurations for Nvidia, it’s the go-to for large-scale, liquid-cooled GPU clusters. Projects like xAI’s Colossus and Saudi’s DataVolt have made it the de facto standard for AI server design.Arista Networks, Vertiv, Broadcom are also benefiting from exploding demand in networking switches, power equipment, and thermal management.But compute is meaningless without energy.NextEra Energy (NEE) is betting big on this. As the largest renewable energy provider in the U.S., it’s aggressively expanding AI-focused power purchase agreements (PPAs), backed by solar, wind, and nuclear. It already manages over 31GW and plans to add 36–46GW by 2030.Schneider Electric and Eaton are essential players behind the scenes, ensuring energy stability and power quality—critical in high-density AI compute environments. But There’s Friction AheadProjects like Colossus are drawing backlash over emissions and local impact. xAI’s use of temporary methane generators has already sparked environmental concern. As these facilities scale, resistance from regulators and communities will grow.That’s why infrastructure firms with green energy credentials and efficient cooling tech are becoming preferred partners in this new ecosystem. Conclusion: Big Tech’s Energy War Has BegunThe AI race is entering its next phase: compute dominance. This battle won’t be won by algorithms alone—but by those who can deliver power, cooling, and scale.In the next decade, the real winners of AI may not be chipmakers—but the companies that keep the chips running.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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Neutral
NEE
NextEra Energy
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user
박재훈투영인
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2 months ago
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Buy the Second-Best Stock (May 14, 2025)
According to Scott Nations, president of Nations Indexes, investors should consider taking a bullish stance on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) following a series of positive headlines surrounding the stock. Appearing on CNBC’s “Power Lunch” on Wednesday, Nations also discussed two of the day’s biggest stock stories and shared whether investors should consider buying or selling those names.Advanced Micro DevicesShares of the AI chipmaker jumped more than 4% on Wednesday after the company announced that its board had approved a $6 billion share repurchase program.Nations rated AMD a “buy,” pointing out that former President Donald Trump is reportedly planning to roll back restrictions on U.S. chip exports—something he said would be “positive for the entire sector.” He also called AMD the “second-best name” in the space, citing the company’s recent deal with Saudi firm Humain to help build out AI infrastructure, alongside Nvidia.“If you’re looking to invest in AI, this is a chance to buy at a 35% discount from its 52-week high,” Nations said. While AMD has rallied nearly 25% over the past month, it’s still down more than 2% year-to-date.AbbVieBiotech giant AbbVie saw its stock fall over 5% during Wednesday’s session.Citi downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral and lowered its price target by $5 to $205 per share, still implying over 15% upside. Analyst Geoff Meacham noted that despite AbbVie’s track record of “consistent beats and raised guidance,” the company’s late-stage pipeline appears weak relative to peers.“Fundamentals are solid right now,” Meacham wrote in a note to clients, “but as investors increasingly focus on pipeline strength, the impact of quarterly surprises could begin to fade.”Nations disagreed strongly with that take, calling the downgrade “truly foolish” and reiterating his “buy” rating on AbbVie. “Pipeline matters for every pharma company, but AbbVie keeps beating earnings expectations, raising dividends, and offers a solid 3.5% yield. It’s in a good space,” he said. The stock is down 8% over the past three months.TeslaTesla shares climbed 4% on Wednesday after Reuters, citing sources familiar with the matter, reported that the EV maker will begin shipping components for its Cybercab and Semi truck from China to the U.S. later this month. The report came after the U.S. and China agreed earlier this week to temporarily suspend certain tariffs for 90 days.The development comes as Tesla grapples with declining sales in China and intensifying competition from local automakers. “I see Tesla as a hold right now,” Nations said. “It’s good that they’re resuming imports from China, but don’t forget: there are still some hefty tariffs on Chinese goods. In about 85 days, those could jump again—maybe even triple.”Tesla shares surged nearly 26% last week but remain down about 14% during that same period, leaving the stock still in negative territory for the year.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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Neutral
TSLA
Tesla
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user
박재훈투영인
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2 months ago
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AI-Driven Rally? Analysts See Up to 73% Upside in Key AI Stocks (May 11, 2025)
The Big Picture: AI as the Fourth Industrial RevolutionAI has been dubbed the Fourth Industrial Revolution, expected to impact society as deeply as steam engines, electricity, and the internet once did.Daniel Ives, Senior Equity Analyst at Wedbush Securities, sees AI as the biggest tech shift in four decades. He estimates the global AI market will reach $407 billion by 2027 and $1.81 trillion by 2030, with a 36% CAGR.While AI isn't entirely new, the mainstream adoption of tools like ChatGPT sparked a wave of public and corporate interest. The development cycle of AI now includes infrastructure buildout (data centers, power systems), training on hyperscaler cloud platforms, cybersecurity, and finally, delivery to end users via software and apps.Wedbush's AI Winners: Sector Breakdown1. Semiconductors & HardwareThese companies build the computing infrastructure that supports AI data centers.Nvidia leads in supplying GPUs for both gaming and data centers, and is a key player in autonomous vehicles.AMD provides CPUs for gaming and computing and is another critical supplier.2. HyperscalersThese cloud giants provide the backbone for AI development and deployment.Microsoft: Its Office suite is integrating AI tools, while Azure is a favorite among enterprise clients.Alphabet (Google): Despite facing competition in AI search and advertising, its growing cloud segment remains under scrutiny from investors.3. Consumer InternetThese firms monetize AI through tools, automation, search optimization, and AI integration in hardware.Apple is building “Apple Intelligence” with a focus on privacy and ecosystem loyalty, though tariff concerns have weighed on its stock.Meta Platforms is improving ad targeting and developing large language models to rival ChatGPT and Gemini.4. CybersecurityCyberattacks are expected to cost companies $23 trillion by 2027.Palo Alto Networks is a prime beneficiary, with a unified platform that Wedbush sees as a key to growing market share.5. SoftwareSoftware bridges AI technology and business adoption.Palantir combines AI and big data analytics for enterprise and government clients. After a strong April, it's trading above consensus target prices.Salesforce is favored for its Agentforce platform enabling autonomous enterprise tools.IBM continues heavy AI investment to drive productivity improvements.6. Autonomous & RoboticsAI is transforming robotics and self-driving vehicles from fiction to reality.Tesla remains a high-profile name in autonomy through its Optimus robot and self-driving systems. However, its near-term EV sales outlook is weak.ConclusionAI is powering a multi-industry transformation, and leading companies are strategically positioned across the value chain—from chips and cloud to software and security. While the long-term growth potential remains massive, investors should be mindful that near-term price surges in certain names reflect high expectations. Selective, fundamentals-based exposure is essential in navigating the next phase of the AI revolution.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
AAPL
Apple
+5
user
셀스마트 판다
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3 months ago
2
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Nvidia Faces $5.5B Hit as U.S. Blocks AI Chip Exports to China (Apr 16, 2025)
The U.S. government has officially barred Nvidia from exporting its H20 AI chips to China, a move that could wipe out $5.5 billion in expected revenue for the company. The impact—equivalent to approximately KRW 7.5 trillion—will be reflected in Nvidia’s Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings, as confirmed in a recent SEC filing.The H20 was specifically engineered with performance adjustments to avoid existing export restrictions. However, the U.S. Department of Commerce issued new directives on April 9, requiring an indefinite export license for any China-bound shipments of the H20, effectively blocking sales to Chinese supercomputing customers.The new restriction signals a renewed escalation in the U.S.-China semiconductor trade war. Nvidia’s China exposure has already declined from 20% to about 10% of revenue, and Morningstar now warns that this could drop to zero. The stock dropped 6.5% intraday following the announcement.The restrictions are not limited to Nvidia. The U.S. is also targeting AMD’s MI308 chips, extending the crackdown across leading U.S. suppliers of AI hardware to China.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Sell
Sell
NVDA
NVIDIA
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셀스마트 대니
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3 months ago
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Is Your Stock at Risk? Top 10 U.S. Companies Most Exposed to the China Slowdown (Apr 13, 2025)
As U.S.–China trade tensions escalate, a select group of U.S.-listed companies with significant revenue exposure to China may be facing heightened earnings risk.According to Goldman Sachs and CarbonFinance, these companies span various industries, yet share a common vulnerability: China accounts for a substantial portion of their total sales.Las Vegas Sands (LVS, 63%) and Wynn Resorts (WYNN, 47%) generate a majority of revenue from Macau-based casino operations, effectively tying performance to the Chinese consumer economy.Qualcomm (QCOM, 62%) and Intel (INTC, 40%) rely heavily on Chinese handset and electronics clients for chip sales.Even Nvidia (NVDA, 39%), despite its AI and datacenter-driven growth, remains exposed to export risks should high-performance chip restrictions broaden.Other notable names include:KLA Corp (KLAC, 51%) – semiconductor inspection toolsCorning (GLW, 39%) – display glassBroadcom (AVGO, 32%) – networking chipsAptiv (APTV, 28%) – auto electronics & wiringTeradyne (TER, 26%) – semiconductor test equipmentIf tariffs increase or export controls are expanded, these companies could see near-term volatility in earnings, paired with declining investor sentiment tied to geopolitical uncertainty.Source: https://t.me/insidertracking/8975[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Strong Sell
Strong Sell
NVDA
NVIDIA
+9
user
셀포터즈 박소연
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3 months ago
1
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In the Age of AI, Why Has AMD Failed to Rebound? (Apr 9, 2025)
The semiconductor industry in 2025 is at a turning point—AI presents a massive opportunity, but also sharpens the risks tied to technological disparity, demand imbalances, and geopolitical volatility. While Nvidia maintains its dominance and Intel accelerates strategic changes, AMD once again finds itself caught between market skepticism and latent expectations.Its technological prowess is unquestioned, but in today’s market, potential is no longer enough. AMD must deliver measurable results.The Fall Behind the NumbersAMD (Advanced Micro Devices) has long stood as a key player between Intel and Nvidia, bolstered by its innovation in high-performance CPUs and GPUs under the leadership of CEO Lisa Su. The company enjoyed significant gains in both product leadership and investor sentiment.But since late 2024, its stock has told a different story. In 2025 alone, AMD shares are down over 20%, diverging sharply from Nvidia’s strong upward trajectory. The decline reflects several compounding factors: relative underperformance in AI semiconductors, a slowdown in server demand, and weaker consumer product sales.The immediate catalyst was AMD’s Q4 2024 earnings, which, despite year-over-year revenue growth, fell short of market expectations—particularly in the data center segment, where slower-than-anticipated growth led to broad disappointment.Entering AI—But Not Yet DeliveringAMD has staked its future AI ambitions on the MI300 series, targeting cloud service providers and AI workloads with high-performance GPUs. The company has signaled an expansion in partnerships and product deployments.However, these developments have yet to translate into meaningful revenue. AMD has stated that MI300-related sales will begin contributing in earnest from mid-2025, but for now, investors remain on hold.Meanwhile, Intel is reasserting itself with next-gen CPU launches and a revitalized foundry business, and Nvidia’s dominance in AI chips remains unshaken. In such a competitive environment, AMD’s performance suggests that technical merit alone is no longer enough to drive a stock recovery.Conclusion: It Comes Down to ExecutionAMD is at another crossroads. Its AI roadmap via the MI300, potential recovery in the server and PC markets, and growing partnerships all present legitimate upside. But markets now demand execution over narrative.In the past, AMD has navigated similar inflection points by proving both its innovation and operational discipline. This time, however, the company must move faster—and with greater clarity.The mission for 2025 is simple: turn technology into results. If AMD succeeds, the current downturn may well prove to be a long-term buying opportunity. That’s why its next steps matter more than ever.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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Neutral
Neutral
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
user
셀스마트 앤지
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3 months ago
0
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Tariff Troubles: Why Tesla and NVIDIA Struggle Under Trump's Trade Policy
Trump’s renewed tariff threats have returned as a major market-moving event, rattling the share prices of key U.S. tech giants.Tesla (TSLA) has been among the hardest hit. Looking at two distinct periods — during the 2018–2019 trade war and the recent November 2024 to March 2025 phase — the stock has posted an average return of -5.8% one month after tariff announcements.NVIDIA (NVDA), a critical player in the global data center boom, also struggled, with an average return of -4.4% and a peak performance of just 1.1% after similar events, revealing its sensitivity to tariff-related risks.Surprisingly, Apple (AAPL), despite generating more than 20% of its revenue from China, has weathered tariff headlines much better, posting an average return of +0.4% and showing far less volatility than its peers.The takeaway? The companies most vulnerable to tariff shocks aren't necessarily the ones with the highest China exposure today. Both Tesla and NVIDIA have proven more reactive to tariff news than Apple, suggesting that market concerns go beyond just revenue breakdowns — growth narratives, supply chain complexities, and policy sentiment also play major roles.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
AAPL
Apple
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user
셀스마트 판다
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4 months ago
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NVIDIA Unveils Next-Gen AI & Semiconductor Innovations at GTC Conference (Mar 19, 2025)
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang unveiled a host of next-generation semiconductor and AI technologies at the annual GTC (GPU Technology Conference). Through this event, NVIDIA clearly demonstrated its strategy to solidify its dominance in the AI industry, introducing a wide range of new products, including next-generation GPUs and custom processors.NVIDIA announced its next-generation GPU, Blackwell Ultra, set to launch in the second half of this year. Designed to handle large-scale AI models more efficiently, this chip features expanded memory for smoother processing. Additionally, NVIDIA introduced the Vera Rubin Computing System, scheduled for release in late 2026, and the Feynman Architecture, set to debut in 2028. These chips enhance data transfer speeds between semiconductors and support the efficient operation of scalable AI systems.NVIDIA also unveiled a new DGX AI computer for AI development. Equipped with the Blackwell Ultra chip, this device is being developed in collaboration with Dell, Lenovo, and HP, and is expected to compete with Apple’s high-performance Mac products. Furthermore, NVIDIA introduced Spectrum-X and Quantum-X networking semiconductors for AI factories, Dynamo software for optimizing AI model inference, and the GR00T N1, a foundational model for humanoid robots.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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Neutral
Neutral
NVDA
NVIDIA
user
셀스마트 판다
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4 months ago
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KOSPI Rebounds Past 2,600 as Foreign Investors Drive Samsung Electronics Up 5% (Mar 17, 2025)
On March 17, the KOSPI surged 44.33 points (1.73%) to close at 2,610.69, reclaiming the 2,600 level. The rally was fueled by foreign investors, who net bought ₩6.25 trillion in cash equities and ₩8.66 trillion in KOSPI 200 futures. Institutional program buying also contributed to the index’s upward momentum.Key DriversSamsung Electronics led the rally, surging over 5% in early trading as global investment banks aggressively bought in.Investor sentiment was lifted by rising memory chip price expectations and optimism surrounding NVIDIA’s AI Conference (GTC 2025).Despite the foreign buying spree, retail investors offloaded ₩11.85 trillion worth of stocks, creating a stark divergence in investor behavior.Key TakeawaysKOSPI gains 1.73%, reclaiming the 2,600 levelForeign investors net buy ₩6.25T in equities and ₩8.66T in futuresSamsung Electronics jumps more than 5% on strong foreign demand and AI momentumMarket ImplicationsWhile foreign buying and improving sentiment are bullish signals, the massive retail sell-off raises short-term volatility concerns. Investors should closely watch developments in the memory chip market and AI sector catalysts in the coming weeks.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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Neutral
Neutral
005930
Samsung Electronics
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user
박재훈투영인
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4 months ago
0
0
Goldman Sachs Report: Magnificent 7 Decline and 2025 S&P 500 Target Cut (Mar 11, 2025)
Goldman Sachs has revised its 2025 S&P 500 target downward, citing weakness in the Magnificent 7 (Mag 7), economic uncertainty, and policy risks.1. Magnificent 7: From Dominance to Decline?Past Performance (2023):Mag 7 contributed to over half of the S&P 500’s 25% annual return, driving market gains.Current Crisis (March 2025):Mag 7 plunged 14% in three weeks, triggering a broader S&P 500 decline.Some analysts have started calling them the "Maleficent 7."Key Factors Behind the Decline:Policy Uncertainty: Potential tariff hikes are dampening investor confidence.Economic Slowdown Concerns: Growth forecasts are weakening, adding to investor anxiety.Hedge Fund Unwinding: Heavy long positions in Mag 7 are being liquidated, accelerating the sell-off.Market Implications:A market heavily reliant on a few large-cap tech stocks is vulnerable to volatility.Investors may need to diversify away from Mag 7 to reduce risk exposure.2. S&P 500 2025 Target CutGoldman Sachs now targets 6,200 for year-end 2025, down from 6,500 (-4%).Reasons for the Revision:Lower P/E Ratio Assumption:Cut from 21.5x to 20.6x amid heightened risk.Reduced EPS Growth Forecast:2025 EPS growth outlook cut from 9% to 7% (2026 remains at 7%).Macroeconomic Backdrop:U.S. GDP Growth Slowing: Goldman’s economic team revised growth projections downward.Tariff Increases Expected: Rising tariffs could erode corporate earnings.Higher Uncertainty: Political and economic risks are raising the equity risk premium.Supporting Data:Despite the cut, the new target still suggests an 11% upside from current levels.Goldman now forecasts 2025 EPS at $262 and 2026 EPS at $280, below consensus estimates.3. Additional ConsiderationsImpact of Tariffs:A 5% tariff increase could reduce S&P 500 EPS by 1-2%, assuming firms pass most costs to consumers.Market Risk Indicators:The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has surged.The spread between S&P 500 earnings yield and real 10-year Treasury yield has widened.ConclusionThe decline of Mag 7 and the S&P 500 target cut reflect Goldman Sachs' cautious stance on U.S. equities.Rising policy risks, slowing growth, and increased volatility signal a more uncertain market environment.Investors should focus on risk management and portfolio diversification in response to these shifts.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
AAPL
Apple
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user
셀스마트 판다
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4 months ago
0
0
Samsung Partners with Nvidia to Accelerate Next-Gen ‘AI RAN’ Technology Development (Mar 13, 2025)
Samsung Electronics is partnering with U.S.-based NVIDIA to accelerate the development of Artificial Intelligence Radio Access Network (AI RAN) technology, a key component of the 6G era. The two companies plan to expand AI applications in the mobile network sector by leveraging NVIDIA’s GPU technology.The goal of this partnership is to integrate Samsung’s software-based virtualized RAN (vRAN) with NVIDIA’s AI-accelerated computing platform, maximizing mobile network performance and efficiency. Samsung Research successfully demonstrated the interoperability of both technologies late last year.Samsung aims to accelerate AI RAN deployment by integrating NVIDIA’s GPU-based AI platform into Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) servers. This will enable optimized AI network solutions across urban, rural, and suburban environments.Moon Jun, Executive Vice President of Samsung Electronics’ Network Development Team, stated that this collaboration is a strategic move to expand the GPU and CPU ecosystem, emphasizing the company's commitment to exploring further AI technology integrations. Ronnie Vasishta, NVIDIA’s Senior Vice President of Telecommunications, expressed optimism that the partnership would drive faster adoption of next-generation AI-based networks.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
article
Neutral
Neutral
005930
Samsung Electronics
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user
박재훈투영인
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4 months ago
0
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Samsung, Are You Listening? “AI Is Booming, but It’s Ultimately in Taiwan’s Hands?” (Oct 31, 2024)
At 35, Harvard graduate Jung Yoon-seok had his pick of locations across Asia—including his home country of South Korea—to manufacture AI chips for his startup, Rebellions. Yet, he chose Taiwan. “Taiwan is small, and Taipei is even smaller, but everything moves incredibly fast there,” he says.And Jung is not alone. AI leaders like NVIDIA, Microsoft, and OpenAI are all focusing on Taiwan. They rely on Taiwanese firms to manufacture AI chips, build servers, and develop cooling systems. As a result, Taiwan’s stock market has been the hottest in Asia over the past year, led by TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) and Hon Hai (Foxconn).Some investors believe this $400 billion rally is just the beginning. Optimists argue that Taiwan has become the ChatGPT era’s core manufacturing hub, making it a key beneficiary of the AI boom.Former U.S. Commerce Department official Sean King puts it bluntly: “Taiwan is the engine that drives AI.”However, this success comes with risks. For the first time in decades, the global tech supply chain is shifting away from China—and instead, towards its smaller neighbor. As U.S.-China tensions escalate, many AI companies are reluctant to manufacture in China, giving Taiwan a strategic advantage. However, as Taiwan’s global significance grows, so does Beijing’s interest in reclaiming what it sees as “separated territory.”TSMC: The King of AI Chip ManufacturingTSMC is at the heart of Taiwan’s success story. As competitors Intel and Samsung struggle, TSMC has tightened its grip on the semiconductor industry, dominating the production of the world’s most advanced chips. Even NVIDIA’s CEO, Jensen Huang, acknowledges that only TSMC can manufacture its AI accelerators.But Taiwan’s AI dominance isn’t limited to TSMC. Several hidden champions play crucial roles in AI development:Quanta Computer – A key server manufacturerDelta Electronics – A leading power equipment providerAsia Vital Components (AVC) – A pioneer in computer cooling systemsThese companies are expected to thrive in the AI market, which is projected to reach $1.3 trillion by 2032.Edward Chen, chairman of First Capital Management, believes Taiwan’s AI boom will last longer than previous tech cycles. With TSMC playing a key role in choosing partners for firms like NVIDIA, he argues that Taiwan’s technology sector is reaching an entirely new level.Taiwan’s stock market performance reflects this shift. The Taiex Index has soared over 40% in the past year, far outpacing China, Hong Kong, India, and Japan.How Taiwan Became the AI Manufacturing HubTaiwan’s rise as a tech powerhouse dates back to the 1980s, when Japanese firms began outsourcing low-cost plastic toy manufacturing to Taiwan. As the economy grew, Taiwanese companies evolved into high-tech manufacturers. While some firms set up factories in China, they always kept their most advanced technologies at home.Meanwhile, U.S. trade restrictions on China have forced companies to seek alternatives, effectively pushing China out of key supply chains. In less than two years, China’s AI hardware industry has been virtually crippled.The numbers tell the story: In the first nine months of 2024, Taiwan exported more than twice the number of AI servers and GPUs as China—an unimaginable shift from just a few years ago.Why Tech Giants Are Rushing to Taiwan"Look at today’s cloud giants," says a tech analyst. "Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google are all racing to catch up with ChatGPT, and they all rely on Taiwanese firms to build their servers."Market research firm IDC predicts that global spending on AI systems and services will more than double to $632 billion by 2028.Liu Fei-chen, a researcher at the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, describes Taiwan as a “one-stop shop” for AI hardware. Companies can source everything they need without leaving the island.Put simply, Taiwan is the gateway to the AI-driven future—where global IT firms’ dreams become reality through Taiwanese technology.The Secrets of Taiwan’s SuccessWhat makes Taiwan’s tech firms so attractive to global giants like Amazon, NVIDIA, and Apple?Customer-First MentalityDuring the pandemic, TSMC had the perfect opportunity to raise chip prices but instead chose to minimize price hikes to maintain trust with customers.This “strategic, not opportunistic” approach solidified its reputation as a reliable partner.Adaptability & Quick TransformationFoxconn (Hon Hai) and Quanta were once known for assembling iPhones and MacBooks.Today, they prioritize AI server orders, proving their ability to shift with market trends.Aggressive Investment in the FutureCompanies like AVC, Delta, and Quanta allocate nearly half of their operating expenses to R&D.They are also expanding beyond Taiwan, with AVC investing $450 million in a new Vietnamese plant.Taiwan’s three-pillar strategy—customer trust, adaptability, and aggressive investment—has created an unstoppable AI powerhouse.AI’s Explosive Growth & Taiwan’s RoleAI demand is skyrocketing, but so are the challenges. NVIDIA’s latest AI server, the NVL72, costs a staggering $3 million per unit and generates extreme heat—a major technical challenge.Companies like Delta and AVC are now scrambling to develop cooling systems that can handle this unprecedented power consumption.Rodrigo Liang, CEO of Silicon Valley-based AI chip startup SambaNova Systems, highlights Taiwan’s geographic advantage:“If a startup founder flies to Taiwan looking for a manufacturing partner, they can meet Delta, AVC, and Quanta all in a single afternoon. The high-speed rail gets you from Taipei to Kaohsiung in just 1.5 hours.”This tight-knit ecosystem fosters fierce competition and rapid innovation—critical factors for Taiwan’s continued AI dominance.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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Where Is Lee Jae-yong's Leadership? The Reality of Samsung’s Crisis (Oct 22, 2024)
Concerns over Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Jae-yong's leadership are growing both domestically and internationally. Critics argue that Samsung has failed to respond proactively in the semiconductor industry, while also facing internal inefficiencies that require urgent restructuring.Leadership Under ScrutinyLee Jae-yong marks his 2nd anniversary as chairman on October 27, but Samsung has no official plans for a statement.The company also approaches its 55th anniversary (Nov 1) and 50 years in semiconductors (Dec 6), raising speculation about future strategic directions.Despite his public appearances—such as the fourth anniversary of Samsung’s pediatric cancer support program on Oct 21—Lee has remained silent on the company's ongoing challenges.Samsung’s Mounting Crisis1. Semiconductor SetbacksFalling Behind in Foundry & Advanced Chips:TSMC dominates AI-driven demand, securing contracts with NVIDIA, Apple, AMD, and Qualcomm.Samsung’s foundry & system LSI division posted over ₩1 trillion in losses in Q3.In 2011, Samsung’s non-memory sales were 88% of TSMC’s; by 2023, this shrank to just 25%.Despite ₩15 trillion annual investments, the gap is widening.Taiwan’s Digitimes (Oct 15) stated that Samsung’s price competition strategy failed due to poor yield rates.HBM Missteps:SK Hynix leads the HBM market, securing early dominance in AI-driven memory.Samsung disbanded its HBM R&D team in 2019, now struggling to catch up.2. Stock Performance & Investor SentimentStock Price:October 21 closing price: ₩59,000 (-0.34%).Hit 52-week low amid continued foreign selling.Foreign investors dumped ₩12.6 trillion worth of Samsung shares over two months.Investor Confidence Eroding:Morgan Stanley's “Winter Looms” report forecasts a semiconductor downturn due to DRAM oversupply and HBM price declines.Macquarie downgraded Samsung to "Neutral" from "Buy".3. Inefficient Decision-Making StructureExcessive Influence of Samsung’s Business Support TF (Task Force):Led by Vice Chairman Chung Hyun-ho, this unit is criticized for slow, risk-averse decision-making.Compared to Intel’s past missteps, where middle management bottlenecks delayed crucial technology transitions.Internal Criticism & Employee Frustration:Employee forum discussions describe a rigid, top-heavy reporting structure stifling innovation and accountability.4. Lack of Bold Strategic MovesLeadership & Talent Strategy Issues:May 2024 appointment of new semiconductor chief Jeon Young-hyun was seen as too conservative.No major acquisitions or aggressive R&D initiatives have been pursued.Samsung’s Crisis = Korea’s Crisis?Samsung accounted for 18% of Korea’s total exports in 2023 (₩150 trillion out of ₩830 trillion).KDI research (2017) showed that shocks to Korea’s top 3 corporations explain 59% of macroeconomic volatility—highlighting Samsung’s systemic importance.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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Samsung Hits New Lows: Where Is the Bottom? (Sep 11, 2024)
Samsung Electronics extended its losing streak to seven consecutive sessions, hitting its lowest level of the year amid growing concerns over Q3 earnings and U.S. recession fears.Market Reaction & Foreign Selling PressureOn September 11, Samsung closed at ₩64,900 (-1.96%), marking another 52-week low after hitting ₩66,000 the previous day.Meanwhile, in the U.S. stock market (Sept 10 ET):NVIDIA gained +1.53% to $108.10, reflecting continued strength in AI stocks.However, Samsung failed to benefit, suggesting that investors remain skeptical of its AI positioning.Foreign investors sold ₩2.69 trillion worth of Samsung shares over six trading days (Sept 3–10), exacerbating downward pressure.Brokerage Downgrades on Q3 Earnings ConcernsTarget Price Cuts:Korea Investment & Securities: ₩120,000 → ₩96,000KB Securities: ₩130,000 → ₩95,000Hyundai Motor Securities: ₩110,000 → ₩104,000DB Financial Investment: ₩110,000 → ₩100,000Meritz Securities: ₩108,000 → ₩95,000Key Drivers of Downgrades:Weak B2C Demand → Sluggish consumer demand affecting memory shipments.Inventory Concerns → Smartphone memory inventory rising to 13–14 weeks, pressuring DRAM/NAND shipments.One-Time Costs → Semiconductor bonus provisions & lower inventory valuation gains impacting Q3 earnings.Korea Investment & Securities Q3 Forecast:Revenue: ₩79.3 trillion (-5% vs. consensus ₩83.3 trillion)Operating Profit: ₩10.3 trillion (-23% vs. consensus ₩13 trillion, below Q2’s ₩10.4 trillion)Chae Min-sook (Korea Investment & Securities):"Both DRAM and NAND shipments will decline QoQ.""ASP (Average Selling Price) gains will remain single-digit, limiting upside.""Q3 earnings are expected to miss estimates."Will HBM Expansion in Q4 Be a Turning Point?Despite Q3 concerns, analysts highlight Samsung’s plan to expand High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) sales in Q4.Kim Ji-won (KB Securities):"Samsung plans to significantly increase HBM shipments in Q4.""If premium product sales rise, Q4 earnings should improve QoQ."However, market skepticism remains high regarding Samsung’s ability to catch up in AI-driven semiconductor demand.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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Conflicting Views on Samsung: What’s Next for Investors? (Aug 9, 2024)
Analysts remain deeply divided on Samsung Electronics, with some raising target prices to ₩130,000, while others cut them below ₩100,000.The key debate centers around Samsung’s position in the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market. While some see a turnaround with HBM3E mass production, others fear oversupply risks.For now, the market leans bullish, citing rising CAPEX guidance from Big Tech companies as a key tailwind for AI infrastructure investments.Brokerage Target Price RevisionsBullish: KB Securities (₩120,000 → ₩130,000)Justification: HBM3E supply ramp-up.Kim Dong-won (Head of Research, KB Securities):"Samsung is entering a phase where concerns are rapidly turning into optimism.""With HBM3E mass production expected in Q4, we see Samsung as the top KOSPI pick for H2."Samsung lags SK Hynix in HBM3E adoption:SK Hynix began HBM3E 8-layer supply to NVIDIA in March and will start HBM3E 12-layer shipments in Q4.Samsung is still undergoing NVIDIA’s quality testing and plans Q3 mass production for HBM3E 8-layer, with HBM3E 12-layer shipments later this year.Bearish: iM Securities (formerly Hi Investment & Securities) (₩101,000 → ₩97,000)Concerns:HBM oversupply risk in 2025.Samsung’s HBM3E supply ramp-up may intensify competition, leading to pricing pressure.AI investment bubble concerns.Song Myung-seop (iM Securities):"This year, HBM demand is expected to reach 880 million GB, but production plans total 1.38 billion GB.""If NVIDIA begins purchasing Samsung’s HBM3E, we could see oversupply and margin compression in the HBM sector."Additionally, NVIDIA’s Blackwell AI accelerator delay could further impact Samsung’s HBM3E adoption.The Information (U.S. tech media):Blackwell production was postponed from late 2024 to Q1 2025.Since HBM3E is a core component of Blackwell, delays could push back Samsung’s shipments.However, KB Securities argues this could work in Samsung’s favor, allowing it more time for mass production preparation.Big Tech CAPEX: The AI Investment Cycle ContinuesDespite AI bubble concerns, Big Tech companies continue to raise AI-related infrastructure spending.Meta increased 2024 CAPEX guidance from $35B → $37B.H1 CAPEX: $15.2BH2 projected CAPEX: $21.8BMicrosoft and Amazon have also signaled higher H2 spending.Shin Ji-hyun (Shinhan Investment & Securities):"Meta’s CAPEX revision reaffirms strong confidence in AI investment."If quarter-over-quarter CAPEX increases, this could fuel further AI value chain growth, benefiting Samsung’s AI-related semiconductor sales.Legacy DRAM & NAND: Supply Shortages Emerging?While HBM faces supply concerns, legacy DRAM and NAND markets are tightening.Morgan Stanley:"The shift toward HBM has created investment gaps in traditional DRAM, leading to potential shortages."Predicts a 23% demand-supply gap in DRAM for 2024, driving price increases.DRAM Pricing:PC DRAM (DDR4 8Gb 1Gx8): $2.10 (as of July 31, stable for 3 months).Shinhan Investment:"Stronger-than-expected memory price growth could offset some of the bearish pressures on Samsung’s stock."Samsung plans to mass-produce QLC-based 64TB and 128TB eSSD products in H2 2024, aiming to capitalize on NAND pricing recovery.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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"Samsung Target Price Slashed from ₩125,000 to ₩64,000"—Inside Macquarie’s Report (Oct 1, 2024)
Global brokerage Macquarie has cut its target price for Samsung Electronics by 50%, citing deteriorating memory market conditions. This follows a similarly bearish outlook from Morgan Stanley, marking another harsh assessment of the Korean semiconductor industry from foreign investment banks.Macquarie’s Key TakeawaysAccording to the financial investment industry, Macquarie downgraded Samsung from "Buy" to "Neutral" in a late-September report and cut its target price from ₩125,000 to ₩64,000 (-48.8%).Reasons for the Downgrade:Memory Market Downcycle → Declining profitability.DRAM Oversupply → ASP (Average Selling Price) is reversing downward.Weak Demand from Downstream Industries → Pressuring earnings.HBM Supply Delays to NVIDIA → Weakening stock momentum.Macquarie even raised the possibility that Samsung could lose its status as the world’s No.1 DRAM supplier.Additionally, Samsung’s HBM revenue forecast for 2026 is only $13 billion, compared to SK Hynix’s $30 billion—just 43% of its competitor’s projected sales.How Does This Compare to Korean Brokerages?While domestic securities firms have also been lowering Samsung’s target price, none have made a cut as drastic as Macquarie’s.Park Yoo-jin (Kiwoom Securities) argues that DRAM investment is not excessive and believes the market will shift from oversupply (2024) to undersupply (2025).This contrast suggests that Korean analysts may still be overly optimistic, underestimating the depth of the structural challenges Samsung faces.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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Samsung’s Semiconductor Profit Could Again Fall Behind SK Hynix (Oct 6, 2024)
Samsung Electronics’ semiconductor (DS) division may report lower Q3 earnings than SK Hynix, as the latter continues to dominate the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market.Concerns over a prolonged semiconductor downturn are now compounded by fears that Samsung could lose its position as the world’s top DRAM supplier. Reflecting this uncertainty, Samsung’s market cap share on the KOSPI has dropped to a two-year low.Q3 Earnings Forecast: Samsung vs. SK HynixSamsung Electronics is set to release its Q3 preliminary results on October 8. While detailed segment earnings will not be disclosed, the DS division is expected to contribute over 50% of total operating profit.According to FnGuide, Samsung’s Q3 projections are:Revenue: ₩80.9 trillionOperating profit: ₩10.77 trillionDS division operating profit: ₩5 trillion rangeMemory business profit estimate: ₩5.2 trillion – ₩6.3 trillionSince Samsung’s foundry and system LSI segments remain weak, most of the DS division’s earnings will come from memory chips.In contrast, SK Hynix is expected to report:Revenue: ₩18.1 trillionOperating profit: ₩6.77 trillionIf these forecasts hold, SK Hynix’s memory business could surpass Samsung’s DS division by ₩400 billion to ₩1.5 trillion.This would mark another quarter where SK Hynix outperforms Samsung’s semiconductor division, after having done so for five consecutive quarters from Q1 2022 to Q1 2024. Samsung briefly regained its lead in Q2 2024, but its position is once again at risk.Analysts now speculate that SK Hynix could overtake Samsung in full-year semiconductor operating profit, something previously unimaginable.HBM: The Market Shift Driving SK Hynix’s EdgeThe HBM segment is a key driver of this shift. HBM chips are 3 to 5 times more expensive than standard DRAM, and SK Hynix currently leads this market, securing lucrative contracts with major AI players like NVIDIA.Reflecting these concerns, Macquarie recently downgraded Samsung’s investment rating from "Buy" to "Neutral" and slashed its target price by 50%, from ₩125,000 → ₩64,000.Following Macquarie’s report, domestic securities firms also lowered their price targets, further pressuring Samsung’s stock.On October 2, Samsung hit a 52-week low of ₩59,900 intraday. As of last month, Samsung’s common stock market cap share on the KOSPI fell to 18.61%, its lowest level since October 2022 (18.05%).Samsung’s Response: AI Vision Amid Competitive ChallengesOn October 4, Samsung hosted its 2024 Tech Forum in Silicon Valley, gathering global industry leaders to discuss AI and future business strategies.At the event, Han Jong-hee, CEO of Samsung DX (Device eXperience) division, emphasized:“Samsung is committed to developing AI that enhances daily life.”“Through 'AI for All,' we envision another technological transformation for the future.”However, Samsung’s AI ambitions contrast sharply with its current market challenges. The company’s lagging position in the HBM market suggests that it is struggling to translate its AI vision into real technological leadership.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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Samsung Electronics Continues Downward Trend as Q3 Earnings Concerns Grow (Sep 11, 2024)
Samsung Electronics' stock extended its losing streak for the seventh consecutive session, hitting a new year-to-date low during early trading on September 11.The stock closed at ₩64,900, down 1.96%, marking its seventh straight day of losses since September 3. During the session, it dropped as low as ₩64,200, setting a new 52-week low.Despite NVIDIA’s stock rising 1.53% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gaining 1% on September 10 (U.S. time), investor sentiment toward Samsung Electronics remained weak, failing to stage a rebound.Q3 Earnings Expectations Fall Below Market ConsensusOn the same day, Korea Investment & Securities slashed Samsung Electronics' target price by 20%, citing expectations that Q3 results will fall short of market consensus.Chae Min-sook, an analyst at Korea Investment & Securities, forecasted:Revenue: ₩79.3 trillion (5% below consensus)Operating profit: ₩10.3 trillion (23% below consensus)Chae noted:Samsung has been cutting production since 2023, with a strong focus on HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) production capacity.Due to these factors, supply growth will remain constrained even in 2025.If average selling prices (ASPs) begin to decline, the supply-demand balance will likely persist longer than in previous downturns, leading to a more gradual ASP decline.Daishin Securities analyst Park Kang-ho pointed out that in the first half of the year, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix benefited from:Rising DRAM and NAND prices, which improved profitability.Expansion of HBM supply, a high-margin product.However, in Q3, IT demand remains sluggish, leading to concerns that the pace of DRAM price increases is slowing, which is weighing on investor sentiment.HBM Supply Expansion Becomes a Critical FactorWith growing concerns over Q3 earnings, analysts stress that Samsung Electronics must secure growth momentum through HBM expansion.An industry insider stated:“As DRAM prices begin to decline, expectations for Samsung, which has a higher exposure to legacy memory, have weakened.”“Expanding HBM supply will be a key turning point for a potential recovery in the second half.”[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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"Flagship Retail Stock" Samsung Electronics Sees Market Cap Share Plunge (Oct 6, 2024)
As Samsung Electronics' stock price continues its downward trend, its market capitalization share in the Korean stock market fell to a two-year low last month.According to the Korea Financial Investment Association on October 6, Samsung Electronics' common stock accounted for 18.61% of the total market capitalization on the KOSPI exchange in September. When preferred shares are included, its market cap share stood at 20.72%, marking the lowest level since October 2022.At that time, Samsung’s market cap share was 18.05% for common stock and 20.32% including preferred shares.The market capitalization share is calculated as the monthly average of the total market value of Samsung Electronics' stock relative to the total market value of all KOSPI-listed stocks, based on daily closing prices.Why Is Samsung's Market Cap Share Falling?The decline is attributed to Samsung's sluggish stock performance, driven by:The worst semiconductor downturn in history last year, followed by a slower-than-expected recovery compared to competitors.Losing market leadership in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to SK Hynix, despite HBM’s rapid growth in the AI sector.Delayed supply agreements with NVIDIA, a key AI chip customer.Due to these concerns, both domestic and global brokerage firms have been lowering their price targets for Samsung Electronics since September.Brokerage Firms Slash Samsung's Price TargetOn September 25, Macquarie Securities released a report stating that:Samsung's memory division is entering a down cycle, leading to deteriorating profitability.Oversupply in DRAM and NAND memory will put downward pressure on ASPs (average selling prices), negatively impacting demand and earnings.Target price cut from ₩125,000 → ₩64,000, with investment rating downgraded to "Neutral."Similarly, most domestic securities firms have also lowered their price targets below ₩100,000.Samsung's Continued Weak Stock Performance in OctoberSamsung Electronics' stock slump has persisted into October:On October 4, the stock closed at ₩60,600, down 1.14% from the previous session.Market capitalization stood at ₩361.77 trillion.On October 2, the stock hit an intraday low of ₩59,900, marking a new 52-week low.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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Samsung Electronics Investors Are Bleeding: 81% in Losses Over 3 Years (Oct 2, 2024)
Over the past three years, 8 out of 10 investors who purchased Samsung Electronics shares have suffered losses. Many investors bought shares above ₩80,000 this year, but as domestic and international securities firms continue to slash their target prices, concerns are mounting.Key DevelopmentsSamsung Electronics Hits 52-Week LowOn October 2, Samsung Electronics closed at ₩61,300, down 0.33% from the previous trading day, marking a new 52-week low. During the day, the stock dipped to ₩59,900, falling below ₩60,000 for the first time since March 16, 2023—a 17-month low.81.59% of Investors Are in the RedAs the stock continues its downward trend, a staggering 81.59% of investors who bought Samsung Electronics shares in the past three years (Oct 1, 2021 – Oct 2, 2024) are now in negative territory, according to Koscom data. The largest concentration of purchases (43.29%) occurred in the ₩70,000–₩79,000 range, making these investors particularly vulnerable.For those who bought shares this year, the losses are even more severe. Among 2024 buyers:31.39% purchased at ₩75,000–₩79,90027.36% bought above ₩80,00028.51% acquired shares at ₩70,000–₩74,900Only 12.76% bought at ₩60,000–₩69,900This indicates that nearly 60% of this year’s buyers are deep underwater, as they expected a rebound to ₩100,000 ("Tenbagger Samsung").Why Is Sentiment Crumbling?Foreign Investors & Analysts Cut ExpectationsForeign investors and brokerage firms have downgraded their outlook, further dampening sentiment:Macquarie downgraded Samsung Electronics from "Buy" to "Neutral"Slashed its target price from ₩125,000 → ₩64,000 (a 49% cut)Cited oversupply in memory chips, declining ASPs (average selling prices), and weak demand from downstream industriesHighlighted delayed HBM shipments to NVIDIA, reducing AI-related growth potentialEstimated Samsung’s HBM revenue for 2026 at $13 billion—only 43% of SK Hynix’s projected $30 billionShinhan Investment Corp. lowered its target price from ₩110,000 → ₩95,000, citing:Weaker-than-expected smartphone demandSlowdown in legacy memory salesReduced Q3–Q4 operating profit estimates (from ₩10.2 trillion)However, Shinhan believes the stock is nearing its PBR (price-to-book ratio) bottom, reducing downside risk. Analyst Kim Hyung-tae noted that most of the bad news is priced in, suggesting a long-term buying opportunity as the memory supply-demand balance stabilizes in 2025.Retail Investors Are Betting on a BottomDespite the grim outlook, retail investors are aggressively buying the dip:In September alone, retail investors net bought ₩8.08 trillion ($6 billion) worth of Samsung shares.Many believe the worst is over and that Samsung is undervalued at current levels.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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After dismal 2014, Samsung Elec charts recovery with new Galaxy phones(Apr 3, 2015)
Tech giant Samsung Electronics Co Ltd <005930.KS> likely saw January-March earnings slip for the sixth straight quarter, but investors are betting on a rebound this year on healthy chip sales and high hopes for its new flagship smartphones. Shares in South Korea-based Samsung hit a more-than 21 month high in mid-March as brokerages raised profit forecasts and target prices on its improving business outlook. The stock rose 8.6 percent in January-March following a 12.1 percent gain in the previous period. Investors believe the Galaxy S6 and its curved-edges variant will sell briskly when they roll out this month following positive reviews, and analysts say new mid-tier phones will boost sales, adding to expectations that the earnings slide in its handset business is ending. The recovery is also expected to be backed by strong semiconductor sales. In addition to healthy memory chip demand, Samsung's system chips business is seen returning to profit this year. Its home-grown Exynos processor will power the new Galaxy phones, and Samsung recently added Nvidia Corp as a contract manufacturing client. "This is a year of recovery for Samsung," said fund manager Park Sung-jae at LS Asset Management, which holds Samsung shares. "The stock price reflects that sentiment." To be sure, recovery is expected to be gradual and well shy of record profits in 2013. The median forecast from a Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S survey of 41 analysts tips first-quarter operating profit at 5.3 trillion won ($4.82 billion), down 38 percent from 8.5 trillion won a year earlier as mobile earnings weakened. The company will release its first-quarter earnings guidance on Tuesday. But analysts say the underlying figures should show meaningful improvements, with momentum to pick up further once the Galaxy S6 and S6 edge roll out globally. BNP Paribas analyst Peter Yu expects Samsung to ship 44 million of the new phones this year, compared with an estimated 38 million units of the disappointing Galaxy S5 last year. For the whole year, a Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S survey of 51 analysts expects profits to rise to 26.5 trillion won from 25 trillion won in 2014 - a reversal from the prevailing consensus early this year for another earnings slide. "We believe Samsung's smartphone operations are in a full recovery phase," Yu said in a note to clients last week, adding that there was an earnings upside of up to $1.5 billion to his 2015 profit forecast of 28.1 trillion won because of the new flagship devices. (Editing by Tony Munroe and Stephen Coates)
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‘Price bubble’ in A.I. stocks will wreck rally, economist David Rosenberg predicts(May 25 2023)
Investors piling into stocks with artificial intelligence exposure may pay a hefty price.Economist David Rosenberg, a bear known for his contrarian views, believes enthusiasm surrounding AI has become a major distraction from recession risks.“No question that we have a price bubble,” the Rosenberg Research president told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Thursday.According to Rosenberg, the AI surge has striking similarities to the late 1990s dot-com boom —particularly when it comes to the Nasdaq 100 breakout over the past six months.″[This] looks very weird,” said Rosenberg, who served as Merrill Lynch’s chief North American economist from 2002 to 2009. “It’s way overextended.”This week, Nvidia’s blowout quarter helped drive AI excitement to new levels. The chipmaker boosted its yearly forecast after delivering a strong quarterly earnings beat after Wednesday’s market close. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang cited booming demand for its AI chips.Nvidia stock gained more than 24% after the report and is now up 133% over the last six months. AI competitors Alphabet, Microsoft and Palantir are also seeing a stock surge.In a recent note to clients, Rosenberg warned the rally is on borrowed time.“There are breadth measures for the S&P 500 that are the worst since 1999. Just seven mega-caps have accounted for 90% of this year’s price performance,” Rosenberg wrote. “You look at the tech weighting in the S&P 500 and it is up to 27%, where it was heading into 2000 as the dotcom bubble was peaking out and soon to roll over in spectacular fashion.”While mega cap tech outperforms, Rosenberg sees ominous trading activity in banks, consumer discretionary stocks and transports.“They have the highest torque to GDP. They’re down more than 30% from the cycle highs,” Rosenberg said. “They’re actually behaving in the exact same pattern they have going into the past four recessions.”
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Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF
Event
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셀스마트 자민
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4 months ago
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Don't Panic! NVIDIA Earnings Strategy by Core16 (Feb 27, 2025)
The upcoming Q4 earnings report is a critical event that could shape the AI semiconductor market. As NVIDIA faces its first major test since the DeepSeek incident, global investors are closely watching whether the company can reassure the market with strong results or fall short of expectations, triggering a broader tech sector correction. Core16 has conducted a comprehensive quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors navigate this earnings season.Significance of This Earnings ReportFirst Earnings Report Since DeepSeek’s AI Model AnnouncementIn late January, Chinese AI startup DeepSeek introduced a large-scale AI model, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of NVIDIA’s high-end GPU business model. As a result, NVIDIA’s stock plummeted 17% in a single day. This earnings release will be crucial in proving NVIDIA’s resilience following the DeepSeek shock.Impact of Mass Production of 'Blackwell' AI ChipsNVIDIA began mass-producing its latest AI data center GPU architecture, Blackwell, in late 2024. This earnings call will provide insights into the success of Blackwell’s market adoption and its contribution to NVIDIA’s revenue growth.Given these factors, this report is seen as a major inflection point in the AI semiconductor industry. The battle between AI optimization technologies (like DeepSeek) and high-performance GPU demand will be a key focus, with NVIDIA’s earnings serving as a decisive indicator.Broader Impact on Tech StocksAs a megacap stock with significant market influence, NVIDIA’s earnings can drive the overall tech sector. While the correlation between NVIDIA and the S&P 500 has dropped from 71% to 30% since the DeepSeek incident, NVIDIA’s psychological impact on market sentiment remains strong.If earnings exceed expectations, tech stocks could see a renewed rally.If earnings disappoint, the entire sector’s risk appetite may decline, leading to broader weakness.Market Consensus & Earnings ForecastThe market consensus for NVIDIA’s Q4 earnings:Revenue: ~$38 billion (+72% YoY)EPS: $0.84However, some analysts have raised concerns about slowing growth in the traditional GPU business and headwinds from U.S. export restrictions to China. Overall, the market sees this earnings report as a key test for the AI semiconductor investment cycle, with expectations that NVIDIA will meet or exceed forecasts.Historical Earnings Patterns & Expected Price MovementsIf an Earnings Surprise (EPS Beat) Occurs5 trading days after earnings: Historically, NVIDIA’s stock rises +2.21% on average after a surprise.20 trading days after earnings: Mid-term gains tend to persist, with an average return of +3.69%.If an Earnings Shock (EPS Miss) Occurs5 trading days after earnings: While a decline is likely, partial rebounds have been observed, with an average return of +0.19%.20 trading days after earnings: Even after short-term weakness, mid-term recovery has been strong, with an average gain of +6.74%.Investor StrategyIf NVIDIA Reports an Earnings SurpriseConsider partial profit-taking if the stock surges post-earnings.Since a continued uptrend is likely, holding for mid-term gains may be a better strategy.If short-term pullbacks occur after the announcement, use dips as buying opportunities.If NVIDIA Reports an Earnings ShockImmediate post-earnings volatility is likely to be high, so a wait-and-see approach is advisable.As a mid-term rebound (20 days later) is historically strong, a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy could be effective if the stock declines significantly.Rather than reacting to short-term price swings, investors should focus on the long-term trend and position strategically based on historical patterns.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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NVDA
NVIDIA
Economy & Strategy
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3 months ago
1
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Fed Policy Adds to Market Turmoil as Wall Street Sells Off (Apr 17, 2025)
Wall Street suffered another broad sell-off on Wednesday as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that trade tensions could stoke inflation, suggesting that the Fed would not move quickly to cut rates.The S&P 500 briefly fell as much as 3.3% before closing down 2.2%, while the Nasdaq 100 slid 3%. Selling pressure was widespread, with around 90% of S&P 500 constituents declining. Losses deepened following Powell’s remarks.Semiconductor stocks were hit hardest after the Trump administration moved to block chip exports to China. Nvidia and AMD both warned of significant revenue hits, with Nvidia anticipating a $5.5 billion charge and AMD expecting up to $800 million. Meanwhile, ASML missed earnings expectations, citing uncertainty from the new tariff landscape. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed down 4.1%.During his speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell stressed that the Fed must prevent tariffs from causing persistent inflation and warned of sustained market volatility ahead. He reiterated that without price stability, the U.S. cannot achieve a strong labor market over the long term.Adding to the bearish mood, the WTO slashed its 2025 global trade growth forecast to -0.2%, citing U.S. tariff escalation and mounting global uncertainty.Bloomberg Intelligence noted that chipmakers are now leading the broader tech selloff, while Tesla shares slumped 4.9% after reporting weaker new EV registrations in California, despite a rush of purchases ahead of new tariffs.The S&P 500 entered a phase of relative stabilization after six consecutive sessions of 4% swings—the longest streak of extreme volatility since the March 2020 pandemic selloff.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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셀스마트 판다
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3 months ago
0
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Trump Reverses Course — Smartphones and Semiconductors Exempt from Tariffs (Apr 13, 2025)
The Trump administration has announced a tariff exemption on roughly 20 key tech-related products, including smartphones, laptops, and semiconductors. On April 11, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), under the Department of Homeland Security, officially declared that both the base 10% tariffs and additional surcharges would not apply to these items.The decision appears to be driven by growing domestic pressure over rising consumer costs and the need to protect U.S. tech companies from collateral damage in the trade war.Following the announcement, Apple (AAPL) gained +4.06%, and Nvidia (NVDA) rose +3.12%, reflecting a sharp rebound in investor sentiment. Apple, whose production relies heavily on China, had been seen as vulnerable to tariff risks. Nvidia, which sources chips from TSMC in Taiwan, also benefited as the exemption covers core components in its supply chain.Samsung Electronics and TSMC are expected to benefit indirectly. For Samsung, export channels into the U.S. face reduced strain. TSMC gains by securing shipment stability for major clients like Nvidia now protected from tariff risks. However, tariff policy volatility remains high, and future reversals cannot be ruled out.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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Neutral
Neutral
AAPL
Apple
+1
user
셀스마트 앤지
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3 months ago
0
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Trump’s Tariff Shock: Who's Paying the Price?
Trump's tariff headlines have dominated the news cycle and shaken asset markets, but which stocks are taking the biggest hit?Historically, NVIDIA (NVDA) has performed well during rate-cut cycles. Since 2001, NVDA's average 20-day return following a Fed rate cut has been +6.2%. However, despite entering another rate-cutting phase in early 2025, NVDA has underperformed significantly. The key reason? Each time Trump announced or hinted at new tariff measures, NVDA's stock price dropped sharply.Importantly, the ISM Manufacturing Index remains above 50, signaling that the economy is still in expansion—not contraction—territory. This makes it clear that NVDA's recent underperformance is not driven by recession fears, but rather by the negative impact of tariff uncertainty on its stock.Caterpillar (CAT), another stock closely tied to global trade, also showed repeated sell-offs during Trump’s first-term tariff announcements in 2018. However, CAT’s historical sensitivity to interest rates (-6.2% average return after rate hikes in 2018) complicates the interpretation. CAT's decline could be partially explained by monetary policy, while NVDA's recent performance points directly to the tariffs.In short, NVDA's price action defies its usual rate-cut rally pattern, strongly suggesting that tariffs have become the dominant driver behind its recent weakness. Investors should take note that tariff risks may continue to weigh heavily on NVDA and similar trade-sensitive stocks.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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Neutral
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NVDA
NVIDIA
+1
user
셀스마트 대니
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3 months ago
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S&P 493: A More Stable Investment Than the Magnificent 7 Amid Trade Risks? (Mar 24, 2025)
Trade Policy Uncertainty and Its Impact on U.S. EquitiesAs trade policy risks continue to escalate, concerns are rising that the Magnificent 7 (Mag. 7) tech giants could be more vulnerable to global economic slowdown and trade barriers. Meanwhile, the remaining S&P 493 stocks—those outside the Mag. 7—may offer relative stability, given their lower dependence on foreign revenue.Lower Foreign Revenue Exposure in S&P 493According to Goldman Sachs, Mag. 7 companies generate 49% of their revenue from international markets, while Nasdaq 100 (NDX) firms have a similarly high exposure of 46%.In contrast,S&P 493 derives only 26% of its revenue from foreign markets, whileS&P 500 (SPX) overall sits at 28%.Russell 2000 (RUT) and S&P MidCap 400 (MID) have even lower foreign revenue exposure at 21% and 25%, respectively—highlighting their more domestic-focused nature.Mag. 7’s Exposure to Global Trade RisksTech giants such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, and NVIDIA have significant exposure to international markets, particularly in Asia and Europe. This makes them highly susceptible to any U.S. trade protectionism or geopolitical tensions.On the other hand, S&P 493 companies are more insulated from trade volatility, as they derive a larger share of their revenue from the domestic U.S. economy.Investment ImplicationsWith trade policy shifts potentially driving short-term market volatility, investors should carefully assess the risks associated with high foreign revenue dependence and consider strategic portfolio adjustments toward domestic-focused companies.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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Neutral
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AAPL
Apple
+8
user
박재훈투영인
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4 months ago
0
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Nasdaq 100 Index Overview (Feb 18, 2025)
History & EvolutionThe Nasdaq 100 Index, introduced in 1985, tracks the performance of the top 100 non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. As the first electronic stock market in 1971, Nasdaq became a hub for technological innovation, and the Nasdaq 100 has since served as a benchmark for large-cap growth companies.Technology Sector DominanceAs of 2025, the technology sector makes up 62.25% of the Nasdaq 100, led by Apple, Microsoft, and NVIDIA. Companies like Amazon and Tesla, though categorized in different sectors, operate technology-driven businesses, further solidifying Nasdaq’s tech-heavy nature. The ongoing AI and digital transformation boom continues to drive the index, making sector concentration risk and rebalancing impact key factors for investors.Nasdaq’s Competitive Edge in IPOsNasdaq has outperformed NYSE in IPO listings for six consecutive years through 2024. Over 160 companies raised $22 billion on Nasdaq in 11 months of 2024, reflecting growing preference among tech-driven firms. AI-related firms' rapid expansion has further fueled Nasdaq’s dominance in public listings.Inclusion & Exclusion CriteriaCompanies must be exclusively listed on the Nasdaq Global Select Market, maintain high liquidity, and have a minimum 3-month trading history.Financial firms & REITs are excluded.Annual index rebalancing adjusts the composition, removing underperforming stocks.In 2024, Super Micro Computer, Illumina, and Moderna were removed from the index.Nasdaq 100 vs. S&P 500QQQ ETF tracks Nasdaq 100, with a 62.25% tech weighting, making it more volatile.S&P 500 covers 500 companies, offering a more diversified portfolio with lower volatility.Market Performance & Growth TrendsNasdaq 100 experienced major events such as the dot-com bubble (2000), the financial crisis (2008), and AI-driven expansion (2024).After an 800% rise from 1995-2000, the dot-com crash led to a 76.81% decline.The index only recovered its 2000 peak in 2015, but today’s AI-driven rally differs due to companies' strong profitability & financial stability.Innovation & Economic ImpactNasdaq defines innovation as a driver of economic value, knowledge integration, and real-world impact. R&D spending and patent filings serve as key indicators, expanding beyond technology to include healthcare, consumer goods, and other industries.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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셀스마트 판다
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4 months ago
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U.S. Stocks Rise for Second Day on Dip Buying; Tesla Drops 4.8% (Mar 17, 2025)
U.S. stocks extended their gains for a second consecutive session, supported by dip buying and easing economic concerns. On March 17 (ET), the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.85% to 41,841.63, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 0.64% and 0.31%, respectively.According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, February retail sales increased 0.2% month-over-month, falling short of the 0.6% forecast. However, core retail sales (control group) rose 1%, offering a mildly positive signal for GDP growth expectations. Additionally, reports that former President Donald Trump is engaging in negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss ending the war in Ukraine fueled hopes of geopolitical risk reduction.Stock HighlightsTesla (-4.8%):Investors reacted negatively to China’s announcement of free autonomous driving trials, raising market uncertainty.Mizuho Securities cut Tesla’s price target from $515 to $430, adding to the downward pressure.Intel (+6.8%):Surged after announcing a corporate restructuring strategy.Baidu (+9%):Benefited from expectations of increased consumer spending in China due to new government stimulus measures.Nvidia (-1.8%):Weighed down by ongoing U.S.-China tensions.Quantum Computing Stocks Soar:D-Wave Quantum (+10.15%) and Quantum Corp (+40.1%) surged as investors anticipated AI-related breakthroughs ahead of Nvidia’s upcoming AI conference.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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Neutral
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TSLA
Tesla
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user
박재훈투영인
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4 months ago
0
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When Is the Best Time to Sell Stocks? (Feb 02, 2025)
Proven Principles for Stock Sell TimingKey Selling Principles:Defensive Selling Rules: Limiting Losses7–8% Stop-Loss Rule: Sell immediately if a stock falls 7–8% from the purchase price.This rule is based on over 130 years of stock market history, which shows that even the best stocks rarely drop more than 8% from their entry point.Capital preservation is paramount—"Sell first, ask questions later."If a stock falls more than 8%, it signals that there may be issues with the purchase timing, the company, the industry, or the overall market.Aggressive Selling Rules: Realizing Gains20–25% Profit-Taking Rule: Sell all or part of your position if the stock rises by 20–25% from an optimal buy point.It is best to sell in a rising, bullish market.Growth stocks typically surge 20–25% following a breakout from a favorable chart pattern before undergoing a pullback.The "72 Rule" applies: achieving 24% gains compounded three times doubles your capital.Exception: The 8-Week Holding RuleIf a stock surges more than 20% within three weeks of a breakout, hold it for at least eight weeks.Stocks with the strength to quickly rise over 20% may have the potential to become market leaders, so this rule should be applied only to true market leaders.While significant adjustments may occur during these eight weeks, you must weather the volatility.After eight weeks, you may then choose to either realize gains or continue holding.Considerations When Deciding to Sell:Assess overall market trends.In weaker markets, consider triggering stop-losses even at 3–5% declines.Calculate profit-taking based on your ideal buy point.Always prioritize capital preservation.Examples from Leading Companies:Even top growth stocks like Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOGL), Netflix (NFLX), and Amazon (AMZN) have experienced steep declines. Timing your exit well is critical to protecting gains.These principles are proven methods for limiting losses and locking in profits in stock investing, thereby safeguarding your portfolio and enabling long-term success.
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박재훈투영인
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4 months ago
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S&P 500 Shaken by Tariff Shockwaves, While Volatility Traders Rejoice (Mar 10, 2025)
Trump’s trade disputes have sparked market volatility, which has become a boon for options traders.As the stock market continues to rise in 2024, options traders who profit from volatility are thriving amid the chaos triggered by President Donald Trump’s trade disputes. For example, Kris McConnell, an intraday trader, used to rise at 3 a.m. during the overnight session to capture high volatility. However, with the market experiencing even greater turbulence this year, the 56-year-old day trader based in Las Vegas is now earning 80% more than last year—and he’s even able to hit the snooze button on his alarm clock."Every time the VIX jumps above 20, I think, 'Great! I can sleep in today!'" said McConnell, a trader at Bright Trading, a proprietary trading firm. "The more outrageous Trump gets, the better the volatility—and the better it is for all my trades."In a volatile market environment, options strategies offer greater profit opportunities, especially for traders who capitalize on short-term price movements. However, such high volatility can pose challenges for long-term investors and may heighten concerns about overall market stability.Meanwhile, larger long-only investors are suffering more. Following a decline of over 6% in the market value of the S&P 500 due to Trump’s tariff disputes with Canada, Mexico, and China, many people’s 401(k)s and retirement savings have taken a hit over the past two weeks. Yet professional volatility traders are benefiting from the policy moves of the Trump administration that are rattling the market."This is now the market for traders," said Daniel Kirsch, head of options at Piper Sandler.According to Kirsch, those trading volatility now have more opportunities to monetize their positions through hedging and options, as stocks become increasingly correlated.Large-scale macro risks like Trump’s tariffs can often force stocks to move in unison—and that is exactly what is happening. The stock correlation index, which had been hovering near historic lows at the start of 2025, surged to its highest level last week following a shakeout in yen carry trades in early August.Rising Correlations and Soaring VolatilityThe increase in stock correlations has come hand-in-hand with higher volatility. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which measures S&P 500 fluctuations over the coming month, soared above 26 intraday last week—a level rarely seen since the COVID era of 2020-2022. Instead of retreating in the face of market stress, day traders seem to welcome the increased volatility. According to Cboe Global Markets Inc., zero-day (0DTE) options accounted for 56% of total S&P 500 trading volume in February—a record level.A VIX above 26 indicates that market participants expect significant price swings in the coming weeks. Typically, a VIX between 15 and 20 is considered normal, so the current level suggests heightened anxiety among investors.Notably, the popularity of options that expire on the same day (0DTE) has surged. These short-term options offer traders leverage on immediate market movements and are ideal tools for capturing quick profits in high-volatility conditions."Since the early days of COVID, we haven’t seen this level of activity," said John Bartleman, CEO of TradeStation Group Inc., an online brokerage catering to day traders. He noted that clients are moving away from broad ETFs to bet more on the volatile moves of individual stocks, with options trading volumes increasing for companies like Nvidia Corp., Tesla Inc., and MicroStrategy.Although the VIX has risen, it hasn’t spiked to levels signaling full-blown panic, and market observers describe the recent sell-off as "orderly" compared to August. Thanks to robust hedging positions from January and February, investors have been partially shielded from deeper losses, and some positions are now being adjusted in anticipation of further volatility through spring.The current market environment presents opportunities for short-term traders while compounding uncertainty for long-term investors. These contrasting conditions demonstrate that under the same market circumstances, the outcomes can vary greatly depending on one’s trading strategy and time horizon.
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Tax Loss Harvest
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셀스마트 인디
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3 months ago
5
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The Sweet Trap of Covered Call ETFs: Yield Comes with Hidden Taxes and Risks
Amid persistent market volatility and high interest rates, investors are flocking to covered call ETFs as an income-generating alternative. Some of these ETFs have reported distribution yields of up to 15% over the past year, drawing considerable interest. But behind these attractive numbers lie tax implications and structural risks that investors should not ignore.At its core, a covered call strategy is simple: the fund buys underlying assets (e.g., stocks or indices) and sells call options to collect premiums. For example, if an investor buys a stock at $100 and sells a one-month $150 call, they receive an upfront premium. If the stock does not rise significantly, the option expires worthless, and the premium becomes profit. However, if the stock soars above the strike, upside gains are capped, limiting total return potential.Example: Covered Call Payoff Structure – NVIDIAStructural Limitations and Tax SurprisesRecently, Korean asset managers have launched a wave of covered call ETFs, aggressively marketing them as tax-free yield solutions. However, many investors were caught off guard when distributions turned out to be taxable as dividend income, not the tax-exempt option premiums they expected.The issue stems from how Korean equity dividends are distributed. Since domestic dividends are mostly concentrated in March, the majority of ETF payouts during this period consist of taxable income, while non-taxable option premium income plays a smaller role. As a result, some investors faced unexpected tax bills, despite being promised “tax-advantaged” products.Investment ImplicationsIt’s important to understand that covered call ETFs sell upside potential in exchange for monthly income. The dividends received are not “free money” but compensation for giving up future gains.Investors should carefully review the fund’s distribution breakdown, tax treatment, and underlying strategy, rather than relying solely on headline yields or marketing claims. While covered call strategies can be effective in range-bound or volatile markets, they are not magic bullets for long-term growth.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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Sell
Sell
NONE
No Relevant Stock