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2 months ago
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Options Market Shows Investors Don’t Fully Trust the Recent Rally
According to Amy Wu Silverman of Royal Bank of Canada, the stock market’s strong bounce from April lows hasn’t convinced traders in the options market.Following the sharp selloff sparked by steep U.S. import tariffs, the S&P 500 surged back, recovering all losses posted after the April 2 tariff announcement. From its closing low on April 8 through April 30, the index jumped 11.8%.However, Silverman, who leads equity derivatives strategy at RBC, noted in a CNBC interview that positioning in the options market suggests continued caution. “We may be back to where we started in price, but derivatives markets remain on edge,” she said on Squawk Box.“Looking at the period since April 2, despite the S&P reclaiming most of its losses... the demand for hedges and protective trades has only increased,” she explained. “This tells you something about the mindset—we’re still grappling with uncertainty, not just over the next few months, but potentially the next few years.”Part of this anxiety likely stems from the lack of concrete progress in trade negotiations between the U.S. and key partners. Still, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that the U.S. is “very close” to reaching some agreements.Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones added to the skepticism, warning that even if Trump cut tariffs on China back to 50%, equities could still hit new lows. Currently, Trump has imposed tariffs as high as 145%, prompting retaliatory measures from China.In short, the market may have bounced, but it hasn’t fully escaped the storm.Meanwhile, BMO Capital Markets issued an “Outperform” rating on Shopify, saying the company is well-positioned to navigate tariff-related disruptions. Analyst Thanos Moschopoulos noted in a client note, “Tariffs create short-term risk, but we believe Shopify’s platform gives merchants agility—and that agility becomes a competitive advantage in times like these.” He added that this edge could drive accelerated market share gains.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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Sell
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셀스마트 KIM
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3 months ago
4
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Time to Take Cover? S&P 500 and Dollar Drop in Tandem
Over the past three months, the S&P 500 has fallen 7.96%, while the US Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped 8.99%—an exceptionally rare occurrence in financial markets. A simultaneous decline of over 7% in both the equity and dollar markets has only happened eight times since 1973. Notably, it coincided with major financial events such as Black Monday (1987), yen carry trade unwinding (1998), the dot-com crash (2002), and the global financial crisis (2008).Among these, three key instances—Oct 31, 1978, Aug 23, 1990, and Oct 6, 1998—stand out. The 1978 event was followed by a 10.22% return over the next year, while the 1998 episode produced an exceptional 34.61% recovery over 12 months as global systemic risk quickly dissipated.However, historical data suggests that apart from the 1998 rebound, most dual-drop instances were followed by further declines or extended periods of sideways trading before recovery began. The 1998 case appears to be the exception, not the rule.ConclusionThe current dual selloff is also open to multiple interpretations. As in past episodes, it has emerged amid rising global tensions—this time fueled by uncertainty over the Trump administration’s tariff policies. Some analysts believe this is triggering capital flight from US assets, potentially signaling broader international capital realignment.As such, the recent dual decline could signal deeper market weakness ahead, much like past episodes. Instead of rushing to buy the dip, investors may consider gradual accumulation strategies with risk controls in place, while closely monitoring global economic trends and policy developments.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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Economy & Strategy
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셀스마트 판다
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2 weeks ago
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How Does the S&P 500 React After the ISM Services PMI Release?
The U.S. ISM Services PMI for June is scheduled for release on July 3 at 10 a.m. ET. Market consensus expects a slight rebound to 50.5, up from 49.9 in May — a return above the neutral 50 threshold would indicate an expansion in the services sector.In May, the index dipped below 50 for the first time since June 2024, reflecting contraction. New orders fell sharply to 46.4, signaling weak demand. However, the prices index surged to 68.7, suggesting ongoing inflationary pressure, while employment barely held expansion at 50.7.The upcoming data will likely influence both Fed policy expectations and market sentiment. A reading above expectations may signal resilience in services, while a downside surprise could revive concerns about economic slowdown and shift investor preference toward defensive assets.S&P 500 Performance After ISM Surprises (2008–present)After an upside surprise (92 events)+0.50% average return over 2 weeks+0.55% average return over 1 monthAfter a downside surprise (113 events):+0.12% average return over 2 weeks+0.63% average return over 1 monthHistorical data suggests that ISM Services PMI surprises have limited short-term impact on equity returns. While direct correlation remains weak, there is potential for indirect effects via shifts in interest rate outlooks and investor sentiment over a one-month horizon.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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2 months ago
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The Stock Market’s Epic Rally: What Investors Should Keep in Mind (May 15, 2025)
The stock market has gone from deeply oversold to aggressively overbought in record time — and some on Wall Street are wondering if the reversal happened too fast.Investors who boldly bought the dip in April were quickly rewarded. But did stocks rebound too far, too fast? Some strategists believe so.Michael O’Rourke, Chief Market Strategist at Jones Trading, told MarketWatch: “What we’re seeing right now is emotion and fear of missing out driving this rally.”Since the April 8 close — the recent bottom — the S&P 500 has surged more than 17% as of Tuesday’s close, a pace nearly unmatched in the past 75 years. Analysts at Birinyi Associates identified six similar historical episodes dating back to 1950, and in each case, 12-month returns were broadly positive.The most dramatic example was the post-COVID rebound in 2020, when the S&P 500 jumped 47.5% in just 60 sessions following the crash, and then went on to gain another 30% over the next 12 months.Still, plenty of investors expect volatility ahead. Even prominent figures like Paul Tudor Jones have warned the market may revisit its April lows later this year as the economic toll of tariffs becomes more visible.“We’ve gone from oversold to overbought in record time”Mark Hackett, Chief Market Strategist at Nationwide, warned that U.S. equities still look expensive relative to expected earnings over the next 12 months.“The market has screamed from oversold to overbought in record time — the S&P 500 is now trading at 21 times forward earnings,” he said in an email note.The S&P 500’s RSI — a popular momentum gauge — topped 70 on Wednesday, signaling an overbought market. Just a few weeks earlier on April 4, before Trump announced a 90-day tariff pause, the RSI was below 30.Of course, bulls have arguments on their side. Trump has already rolled back many of the most economically damaging tariffs, and few expect him to reverse that decision — at least not those announced on April 2.Meanwhile, hedge funds and institutions that sold or sat out the April selloff may now be under pressure to chase the rally, further fueling gains.Trade agreements with the UK and China suggest the White House is serious about finding off-ramps. According to J.P. Morgan data, following a dramatic reduction in China tariffs this week, the U.S. effective tariff rate has dropped from nearly 24% to 14.4%. Still, even that is well above pre-2025 levels.Most of the hard economic data released so far suggests that the spike in policy uncertainty has not yet significantly hurt the U.S. labor market or consumer spending.However, much of April’s data hasn’t been published, and some believe the full impact of the tariffs could take longer to emerge.Melissa Brown, Managing Director of Applied Research at SimCorp, said, “There’s likely been damage to smaller businesses in particular, and that may be harder to recover from in the short term.”Tariff Agenda Still in FluxUnanswered questions around the White House’s tariff agenda continue to pose risks for equities. Speculation has returned about whether the so-called “Trump put” is still in effect, after the administration appeared to respond to financial market stress with concessions on tariffs.National security tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals remain an open issue. While the administration has stayed largely quiet about the plans, the Commerce Department was reportedly asked to begin an official review in early April, according to O’Rourke. If the White House pushes forward with heavy duties to promote domestic production of sensitive goods, that could hit markets again.This policy confusion underscores a key risk for stocks: Trump could crash the market with a single post on Truth Social.Still, O’Rourke suspects last month’s turmoil may have shaken the president’s resolve.“He might’ve been so shocked by the market’s reaction to the China tariffs that he won’t push forward,” he said.Then there’s the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield quietly climbed back above 4.50% on Wednesday — levels not seen since the last bout of tariff turmoil. Bond prices move inversely to yields, meaning rising yields pressure both bonds and equities.George Cipolloni, portfolio manager at Penn Mutual Asset Management, said, “Long-term yields are climbing, and that’s now shaping up to be our next big battle.”[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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셀스마트 KIM
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2 months ago
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Is the “Sell in May” Strategy Still Relevant? The Truth Behind the Summer Market Myth
The Origins of the “Sell in May” StrategyThe phrase “Sell in May and go away” is believed to have originated in 17th-century England, when wealthy investors would leave London for the summer. This led to a seasonal drop in trading activity and weaker stock market performance. Over time, this pattern gave rise to the notion that exiting the market in May and returning in the fall could boost returns.Does the Strategy Hold Up in the Data?We compared two S&P 500 investment strategies using data from 1990 to 2024:May–October: Invest each year from May 1 to October 31November–April: Invest from November 1 to April 30Returns were calculated using the index levels at the beginning and end of each period, compounded annually.The results show that the November–April period consistently outperformed the May–October window, aligning with the seasonal strength typically seen in fall and winter.2001–2011: “Sell in May” Was EffectiveBetween 2001 and 2011, May–October returns were often negative and volatile:Notable drops in 2001 (-16.3%), 2002 (-18.5%), 2007 (-31.3%), and 2008 (-7.9%)Average return for the period: -2.5%During this period, “Sell in May” appeared to work as intended.2012–2024: Seasonal Weakness FadesThe trend changed in the last decade:Strong gains in 2012 (11.0%), 2017 (7.8%), 2019 (15.5%), 2020 (13.7%), and 2024 (13.7%)Fewer and less severe summer declinesAverage return for May–October: +5.1%These results suggest the seasonal pattern has weakened significantly.Why the Shift?Several factors likely contributed:Increased global capital mobilityAdvances in technology and year-round trading activityBroader investor participation, including institutions and retail investorsThese shifts have made markets more resilient across all seasons, reducing the impact of traditional seasonal biases.ConclusionWhile the “Sell in May” strategy once had merit, recent market behavior shows that seasonal investing is far less effective today. Instead of relying on outdated calendar rules, investors should build strategies based on fundamentals, macroeconomic conditions, and data-driven analysis.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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박재훈투영인
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2 months ago
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Is the S&P 500’s 8-Day Winning Streak a Signal for a Pullback? (25.05.02)
Today, the S&P 500 notched its eighth straight day of gains, bringing its cumulative return during the streak to an impressive +8.7%. This marks the first such streak since last November, and if gains continue tomorrow, it will represent the longest consecutive advance since 2004.Interestingly, the index has now climbed above its 50-day moving average for the first time since February. However, it still trades about 2.5% below its 200-day moving average—a threshold many technical analysts view as critical for confirming a long-term trend reversal.Historical analysis by @SubuTrade offers perspective: since 1927, there have been only 8 instances when the S&P 500 closed higher for 8 consecutive days while remaining below its 200-day MA. The short-term outcomes were generally disappointing: the average return over the following month was -3.13%, with positive returns in only 50% of those cases. More notably, within two weeks after such streaks, the average return was -0.72%, and gains were seen in only 38% of cases.This pattern suggests that current strength may reflect a temporary bounce rather than a sustained breakout—especially when long-term moving averages remain unbroken.ConclusionWhile the current rally inspires optimism, historical evidence urges caution. Investors should view the 200-day MA as a critical technical level and prepare for potential near-term volatility. Proactive risk management will be key as the market tests whether this rally can transition into a lasting uptrend.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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박재훈투영인
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2 months ago
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A Spike in the VIX Sometimes Signals a Market Bottom (Apr 22, 2025)
In 1926, magician Harry Houdini died from acute appendicitis after a surprise punch to the abdomen by a college student, illustrating how an unprepared blow can prove fatal. The same lesson applies to financial markets: the biggest shocks often come from sudden, unforeseen "punches."In April 2025, the U.S. government's abrupt tariff policy announcement was such a blow. With a 145% tariff slapped on Chinese goods and additional levies on major trading partners during what was branded as "Liberation Day," the S&P 500 plunged 10.5% within just two days, and the VIX spiked to 53. It was one of the sharpest shocks since COVID-era turmoil.Markets tend to lower expectations during periods of instability — and the lower expectations fall, the easier it is for even minor positive surprises to trigger a relief rally. The S&P 500’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has fallen from 22.4 in February to 18.1 today, reflecting much lower growth assumptions.Historically, extreme spikes in the VIX have often coincided with market bottoms. Since 1990, roughly half of the markets that dropped over 10% saw their bear runs end within a week after the VIX peaked, with some cases marking the bottom on the same day. This is why technical analysts often advise: "Buy when the VIX is high."However, this downturn may not be a typical short-term correction. Tariffs, high interest rates, and fiscal tightening are jointly pressuring the real economy, suggesting the potential for a prolonged recession rather than a simple dip. During the 2008 financial crisis, even after the VIX peaked, the S&P 500 fell an additional 10% over the following months.Moreover, some argue that the VIX no longer captures market sentiment as accurately as it once did, due to structural changes in the options market. Nonetheless, the fear itself is very real — and expectations are already historically low.Ultimately, the key lies in how one responds after taking the hit. Houdini’s law suggests that while you can't always anticipate shocks, you can prepare to recover from them. If you have patience and a long-term perspective, this could very well be the window of opportunity you’ve been waiting for.(Source: optimisticallie.com)[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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Neutral
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2 months ago
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S&P 500 Likely to Retest Its Lows (Apr 21, 2025)
Market OverviewTechnical analysts warn that the stock market has yet to find a true bottom, as tariff chaos and challenges to Federal Reserve independence weigh heavily. On Monday, the Dow plunged over 1,300 points intraday, triggered by worsening U.S.-China tensions and political pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell.Technical OutlookDespite a recent rebound, analysts say the S&P 500’s internal structure remains defensive. Volatility is expected to persist.Jonathan Krinsky (BTIG): Expects a retest of the 5,000–5,100 zone. Warns markets remain defensive despite attempts to rebound.JC O'Hara (Roth MKM): Predicts an extended correction, emphasizing that repairing technical damage will take time.Ari Wald (Oppenheimer): Suggests buy-on-dips and sell-on-rallies strategy. Highlights resistance at 5,500–5,600 and key support at 4,800.Safe-Haven ShiftGold and gold mining stocks are gaining favor as investors seek safety. Analysts highlight emerging markets like China and Brazil as relatively attractive alternatives to the struggling U.S. market.Strategic ViewsRob Ginsberg (Wolfe Research): Cautions that U.S. rebounds are weak, driven by defensive sectors rather than cyclical strength. Sees better opportunities overseas.Broader market trends suggest time, not immediate action, is required for recovery.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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박재훈투영인
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2 months ago
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Asia's Consumer Staples Emerge as a Safe Haven Amid Tariff Turmoil (Apr 20, 2025)
As U.S.-China trade tensions and global tariff risks escalate, Asia’s consumer staples sector is increasingly being seen as a defensive haven.Fidelity and Goldman Sachs are shifting their strategies away from tech stocks toward staples, signaling a broader investor rotation toward stability.Since the April 2 tariff announcements, the MSCI Asia Pacific Consumer Staples Index has outperformed, gaining 5% even as broader regional benchmarks fell by 2.5%.Chinese retailer Yonghui Superstores and Japan’s Kobe Bussan each rallied by over 19%, while food and beverage companies also showed notable strength.Fidelity has highlighted policy tailwinds in China, while Goldman Sachs raised its weighting on the sector, citing relative insulation from trade disruptions.In contrast, the consumer discretionary sector dropped more than 5% over the same timeframe, underscoring the growing investor preference for essentials.Governments across Asia are reinforcing this trend.China announced 48 initiatives to spur household spending, South Korea unveiled a ₩12 trillion (approx. $8.7 billion) supplementary budget, and a favorable monsoon outlook in India is expected to boost rural consumption.Strategists frame this shift as a transition from export dependence toward domestic resilience.Saxo Markets’ Charu Chanana describes it as "pricing in local demand in a more protectionist world," while Hiroyuki Akizawa of Tokio Marine Asset Management emphasizes consumer staples' lower U.S. export exposure as an added shield against tariffs.JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley have also recommended increasing exposure to Southeast Asian consumer sectors.Risks remain: Aberdeen Investment’s James Thom warns that a sharp inflation surge could erode profit margins and dampen enthusiasm for the sector.Still, for now, consumer staples are widely seen as a relative safe haven, with MSCI forecasts expecting double the earnings growth for staples compared to the broader Asia market over the next 12 months.Nick Twidale at AT Global Markets notes, "Consumer staples are the current focus, but as sentiment recovers, investors may rotate back into discretionary and services sectors" — though he cautions that such a shift would depend heavily on changes in U.S. tariff policy.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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박재훈투영인
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3 months ago
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Is the Worst Over? Why the U.S. Market May Still Struggle (Apr 9, 2025)
Investors are asking the same question on repeat—like a child in the backseat:“Are we there yet?”After one of the sharpest drawdowns in recent history, the S&P 500 briefly slipped into bear market territory on Monday, down more than 20% from its February intraday peak. So, is this the time to buy?It may sound naïve. Trump’s aggressive tariffs are hitting the economy hard and escalating fears of a global recession. Perhaps more damaging than the tariffs themselves is the erosion of confidence in U.S. policymaking—with levies on uninhabited islands and inconsistently applied reciprocity, investors are losing trust in the system. In an environment ruled by fear, equity appetite disappears.Some contrarian investors are taking notice. But is fear truly peaking? And just as important—what could actually trigger a rebound?Sentiment Is CrackingThree weeks ago, I laid out a framework to evaluate whether the market was approaching a bottom. Some indicators were flashing “buy” at the time, but I remained cautious. Today, conditions have deteriorated further.A recent (non-scientific) survey from the American Association of Individual Investors showed that bearish sentiment among retail investors is now at its highest since the 2008 bottom—a striking measure of market anxiety.As the banker Nathan Mayer Rothschild once put it:“Buy when there’s blood in the streets—even if it’s your own.”What Could Break the Downtrend?1. Tariff negotiations could shift.Talks are now underway with more than 50 countries. Even minor concessions could be framed as significant progress, potentially serving as justification to reverse tariffs in some cases.2. Other countries may choose not to retaliate.If U.S. trading partners back off and instead offer improved terms, the administration might respond by rolling back tariffs. While China has pushed back strongly, others are still considering their options.3. The Federal Reserve could intervene.In past episodes of market panic, the Fed stepped in by purchasing risk assets like mortgage-backed securities and corporate bonds. A rate cut remains possible as growth slows, but tariff-driven inflation may limit the Fed’s willingness to act aggressively.Moreover, the central bank may avoid bailing out markets from deliberate policy risks, as doing so could undermine its image of independence.A Market Prone to WhiplashMonday brought a real-time test of market sensitivity. A rumor that tariffs might be paused for 90 days triggered a 6% intraday rally—only for stocks to fall again once the White House labeled the report as “fake news.” Even Trump’s subsequent announcement of a 50% tariff hike on China barely moved markets.That tells us two things:Buyers are waiting for any glimmer of relief.Sellers may already be exhausted.The market could be set up for a bounce, even if a sustained recovery is still out of reach.Don’t Mistake a Rally for a RecoverySharp, short-term rallies are common during periods of fear. Historically, after back-to-back major down days, equities often post gains over the following month.But bear markets are often defined by powerful, unsustainable rallies. One example: the 27% rally in late 2008, which eventually gave way to another leg down before the true bottom in March 2009.Without a catalyst, equities tend to drift lower until a recession either begins or is clearly avoided. A durable recovery needs something that signals recession risk is off the table.What's Next?As earnings season kicks off, CEOs may issue more direct warnings about the damage tariffs are causing—potentially triggering another wave of selling.That said, a significant amount of bad news may already be priced in. More risk-tolerant investors may begin re-entering the market cautiously, while still acknowledging that stocks could fall further if tariffs hold and recession fears intensify.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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셀스마트 판다
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3 months ago
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Could This Be the Worst 3-Day Selloff Since Black Monday? (Apr 7, 2025)
Markets Echo 1987 as S&P Futures Drop Sharply on Tariff Shock and Growth FearsThe S&P 500 futures tumbled more than 3% on Monday (Apr 7), deepening a week-long selloff. If the decline continues, it could mark the worst 3-day loss for U.S. equities since Black Monday in 1987.While history doesn’t repeat itself, it often rhymes — and what’s unfolding now draws eerie parallels to the market crash of October 1987.On October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 22.6% in a single day, wiping out over $500 billion in market value in the U.S. alone. This event, now infamous as Black Monday, triggered a global cascade of losses: London’s FTSE 100 dropped 11%, Australia’s market fell over 40% in a month, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost nearly half its value within a week.The root causes were layered: a long bull run since 1982 had led to overvaluation, compounded by rising interest rates, growing trade deficits, and mounting anxiety. The immediate trigger? An automated hedging strategy called portfolio insurance, which sold index futures during downturns — a tactic that backfired and amplified the crash. Add to that the rise of program trading and the volatility spike from triple witching just days before, and a full-blown panic unfolded.In 2025, markets are once again flashing red. The Trump administration’s sweeping new tariffs, coupled with global growth fears, have led to steep losses and mounting volatility. S&P 500 futures are down more than 3%, prompting some analysts to warn of a "2025 version of Black Monday."Just like in 1987, today’s turmoil is fueled by a mix of structural fragility and external shocks — in this case, policy uncertainty and concentrated risk exposures.Interestingly, gold prices — often seen as a safe haven — continue to rise despite short-term corrections, supported by central bank buying and geopolitical tensions. Some forecasts suggest gold could test $3,255 per ounce in the coming week. In contrast, silver, with its strong industrial demand link, remains more volatile and less reliable as a defensive asset.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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셀스마트 KIM
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3 months ago
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The Survival Record of the S&P 500: Turning Crises into Opportunities
Historically, the S&P 500 has endured numerous crises—yet time and again, it has demonstrated an ability to recover. At SellSmart, we analyzed major market crash episodes and their recovery paths to provide investors with key insights on how to navigate future downturns.<The 2002 Dot-Com Crash>From the peak in March 2000 to the bottom in October 2002, the S&P 500 fell approximately 49%. The collapse was driven by tech stock overvaluation, IPO mania, and accounting scandals involving Enron and WorldCom.In response, the Federal Reserve aggressively cut interest rates from 6.5% to 1.0% and introduced the Sarbanes-Oxley Act to improve corporate accountability. However, structural issues and a prolonged tech slump delayed recovery—it took about 7 years for the index to return to previous highs. During this time, value stocks led a slow but steady market upturn.<The 2008 Global Financial Crisis>From its peak in October 2007 to the trough in March 2009, the S&P 500 plummeted roughly 57%. The subprime mortgage meltdown, Lehman Brothers’ collapse, and a global credit freeze were at the heart of the crisis.The Federal Reserve and the U.S. government launched unprecedented stimulus efforts, including quantitative easing, TARP, and the Dodd-Frank Act. The market took approximately 5.5 years to recover its pre-crisis levels. A new bull run was led by tech giants like Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, and Microsoft (GAFAM), while ETFs saw a massive surge in popularity under a low-interest-rate environment.<The 2020 COVID Shock>From its peak in February 2020 to the bottom in March, the S&P 500 sank by about 34%. The global pandemic, economic lockdowns, and supply chain collapses triggered the selloff.The Federal Reserve launched unlimited QE and slashed interest rates to zero, while the government passed the CARES Act, providing direct fiscal support. Astonishingly, the market rebounded to pre-crisis levels in just five months, driven by tech platform companies and a surge in retail investor participation. The “stay-at-home” trade led the rapid recovery.<The 2025 Tariff Shock>The most recent crisis, the April 2025 “Tariff Shock,” began with the Trump administration’s announcement of tariffs up to 49% on select imports. The S&P 500 has since declined 17.41% from its February 19 peak. In retaliation, China plans to implement 34% tariffs on U.S. goods starting April 10, further intensifying global trade tensions.This tariff shock poses near-term risks to global economic growth and investor sentiment. As tariffs take effect, markets may fall further amid supply chain disruptions and corporate earnings pressures.However, history shows that markets eventually find a new equilibrium and recover.Conclusion:1. The Importance of Policy ResponseAs seen in past episodes (dot-com crash, financial crisis, COVID shock), swift and powerful actions from central banks and governments play a pivotal role in market recoveries. The same will likely apply in the current tariff-driven environment—rate cuts and fiscal stimulus will be critical.2. Long-Term Investment StrategyHistorically, market crashes have offered compelling buying opportunities for long-term investors. Legendary investors like Warren Buffett have generated exceptional returns by buying undervalued assets when fear peaks.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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셀스마트 대니
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3 months ago
4
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April 3, 2025 – U.S. Market Plunge: Surviving with Data
On April 3, 2025, Wall Street investors were gripped by fear.The U.S. stock market saw a major meltdown, with the S&P 500 plunging -4.8% in a single day. The Magnificent 7 — the market’s previous leaders — tumbled as much as 10%, sparking a wave of panic.Market uncertainty always raises difficult questions:“Will it fall further?”“Should I sell now?”“Is this a buying opportunity?”But in moments like this, when fear takes over, a clear strategy and data-driven thinking matter most.What the Data SaysLooking back at 25 years of market history, two key signals offer perspective:1. U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Drops >20bps (Weekly Basis)This has occurred 52 times over the past 25 years.Result? 12 weeks later, yields were higher in 50% of cases and lower in the other 50% — a coin toss.In short: Rate moves provide no clear directional edge from here.2. S&P 500 Weekly Gap Down >3%There were 104 such instances since 2000. One month later, markets recovered in 55 cases (53%) and fell in 49 (47%). Again, the split is nearly even.Conclusion: The market is sending one message — prepare for both directions.Scenario 1: Tactical Buy for a Quick ReboundIf this sharp drop turns out to be a short-term correction, then history is on the bulls’ side.After a 3%+ weekly drop, the S&P 500 gained +1.2% on average over the next month.After breaking below the Donchian channel top, the average return was +2.4% over the next month.If this is just a storm passing through, this might be a strategic buying opportunity — consider averaging into index ETFs or high-quality growth stocks.Scenario 2: A Deeper Downturn — Go DefensiveIf this is the beginning of a true economic downturn, it’s time to pivot to recession-proof names. The following six stocks have historically held up well during past market sell-offs:Erie Indemnity (ERIE) – Stable earnings from insurance operations.Coterra Energy (CTRA) – Resilient performance during energy-driven shocks.Hormel Foods (HRL) – Consumer staples with defensive demand.Merck & Co (MRK) – Pharma giant with low economic sensitivity.Amgen (AMGN) – Biotech leader with robust fundamentals.Hershey Foods (HSY) – Consumer goods brand with strong pricing power.Historical Performance During Market Downturns:Q4 2018 (Trade War, S&P -14%): ERIE +4.5%, HRL +8.3%, MRK +7.7%, HSY +5.1%2020 COVID Crash (S&P -12.5%): CTRA +23.4%, HRL +12.1%, ERIE +3.7%2022 Rate-Hike Recession (S&P -19.4%): MRK +44.8%, CTRA +29.3%, HSY +19.7%, ERIE +29.1%If recession takes hold, rotating your portfolio into defensive winners is a proven strategy.Bottom Line: Let Data Drive DecisionsThis may feel like a moment of chaos, but it’s also a moment for rational, data-backed strategy.Whether preparing for a bounce or bracing for a downturn, the key is not to panic — but to stay disciplined and allocate based on what the data tells us.Because in every crisis, there is always opportunity — if you're prepared.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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Neutral
Neutral
MRK
Merck & Co
+6
user
박재훈투영인
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4 months ago
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Healthcare Stocks in the Trump Era: What Should Investors Do? (Nov 20, 2024)
A photo of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. sharing a McDonald’s meal with Donald Trump aboard Trump Force One has sparked early contradictions in the administration’s "Make America Healthy Again" agenda.Donald Trump Jr. shared the image on X, joking, "Making America healthy starts tomorrow." While it's unfair to criticize Kennedy for enjoying fries and cola, the image highlights the paradox of a vaccine-skeptic health advocate dining with a fast-food enthusiast—the very man who once boasted about accelerating COVID-19 vaccine development.Potential Conflicts in Healthcare PolicyKennedy’s anti-corporate stance—particularly against Big Pharma—is more aligned with left-wing populism than Trump’s pro-business policies. While Trump prioritizes tax cuts and tariffs, he has lacked a consistent healthcare reform agenda. His previous attempts to reshape drug pricing and overhaul Obamacare were largely abandoned.Kennedy’s nomination as Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) could bring significant regulatory uncertainty for the pharmaceutical industry. His calls for stricter FDA oversight over major drug companies stand in stark contrast to Trump’s deregulatory agenda—a divide already evident within Trump's camp.For instance, Vivek Ramaswamy, a biotech investor and Trump ally, argues that the FDA is overly restrictive and hinders innovation. If Ramaswamy influences Trump’s decisions, it could lead to FDA deregulation, favoring pharmaceutical companies. The key question remains: Will Trump align with Kennedy's aggressive stance on Big Pharma, or will he side with the industry and Wall Street?Market Reactions & Investor ConcernsHealthcare stocks plunged following Kennedy's nominationNYSE Arca Pharmaceutical Index: -5%SPDR S&P Biotech ETF: -10%Big Pharma stocks are already trading at a discountCurrently priced ~35% below the S&P 500Excluding Eli Lilly, the discount rises to 45-50%Uncertainty looms over Kennedy’s actual influenceHHS oversees the FDA, NIH, and CDC, impacting over 80,000 employeesKennedy has advocated caps on drug prices and tighter restrictions on pharmaceutical ads—policies viewed as worst-case scenarios for the industryDespite these concerns, Kennedy may struggle to enact sweeping regulatory changes due to the sheer bureaucratic complexity of the FDA. According to BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Seigerman, Trump is likely to appoint an industry-friendly FDA chief—just as he did in his first term with former Pfizer board member Scott Gottlieb.Long-Term ImplicationsInvestors should temper expectations for radical healthcare reforms.Trump’s first term showed that healthcare reform is a slow, complex process requiring bipartisan compromise.Kennedy’s opposition to obesity drugs (GLP-1 treatments) could backfire politically, limiting his ability to push through drastic policy changes.Trump may roll back Biden’s Medicare drug pricing negotiation policy, providing relief to pharmaceutical firms.The potential removal of FTC Chair Lina Khan—a critic of Big Pharma—could open the door for more biotech M&A activity.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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Sell
Sell
453640
KODEX S&P500 Health Care