According to Amy Wu Silverman of Royal Bank of Canada, the stock market’s strong bounce from April lows hasn’t convinced traders in the options market.
Following the sharp selloff sparked by steep U.S. import tariffs, the S&P 500 surged back, recovering all losses posted after the April 2 tariff announcement. From its closing low on April 8 through April 30, the index jumped 11.8%.
However, Silverman, who leads equity derivatives strategy at RBC, noted in a CNBC interview that positioning in the options market suggests continued caution. “We may be back to where we started in price, but derivatives markets remain on edge,” she said on Squawk Box.
“Looking at the period since April 2, despite the S&P reclaiming most of its losses... the demand for hedges and protective trades has only increased,” she explained. “This tells you something about the mindset—we’re still grappling with uncertainty, not just over the next few months, but potentially the next few years.”
Part of this anxiety likely stems from the lack of concrete progress in trade negotiations between the U.S. and key partners. Still, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that the U.S. is “very close” to reaching some agreements.
Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones added to the skepticism, warning that even if Trump cut tariffs on China back to 50%, equities could still hit new lows. Currently, Trump has imposed tariffs as high as 145%, prompting retaliatory measures from China.
In short, the market may have bounced, but it hasn’t fully escaped the storm.
Meanwhile, BMO Capital Markets issued an “Outperform” rating on Shopify, saying the company is well-positioned to navigate tariff-related disruptions. Analyst Thanos Moschopoulos noted in a client note, “Tariffs create short-term risk, but we believe Shopify’s platform gives merchants agility—and that agility becomes a competitive advantage in times like these.” He added that this edge could drive accelerated market share gains.
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