
How Does the S&P 500 React After the ISM Services PMI Release?
created At: 7/1/2025

Neutral
This analysis was written from a neutral perspective. We advise you to always make careful and well-informed investment decisions.
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Fact
June ISM Services PMI is scheduled for release on July 3
May data: Headline index 49.9, New Orders 46.4, Prices 68.7, Employment 50.7
When the index beats expectations:
- Avg. S&P 500 return after 2 weeks: +0.5%
- After 1 month: +0.55%
When the index misses expectations:
- Avg. return after 2 weeks: +0.12%
- After 1 month: +0.63%
Low direct correlation with stock performance, but indirect influence exists
Opinion
The ISM Services Index rarely drives short-term market moves on its own, but it can shape investor sentiment and rate expectations, especially through its signaling effect on Fed policy. Return distributions remain neutral regardless of upside or downside surprises.
Core Sell Point
Market reactions to ISM releases are often muted—don’t expect clear direction from the headlines alone.
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