A back-to-back rally in May and June has historically been a strong setup for the S&P 500.
Since 1988, this pattern has occurred 16 times. In 15 of those years (93.8%), the market continued to climb over the next six months. The average return was +8.8%, with even the bottom quartile posting a solid +5.9%. Top quartile returns reached +11.45%.
There are rare exceptions. In 2018, despite early strength, the index fell 7.8% in the second half—reminding us that outside shocks or policy shifts can break momentum.
Still, history leans bullish. Unless macro risks intervene, a strong May–June tends to set the tone for a strong finish.
