S&P 500 Rallies in May and June — What Comes Next?
created At: 7/1/2025
Buy
This analysis was written from a neutral perspective. We advise you to always make careful and well-informed investment decisions.
45
0
0
Fact
Since 1988, the S&P 500 has posted gains in both May and June 16 times.
Follow-up rally rate: 93.8%
Average 6-month return: +8.81%
Bottom 25% return: +5.90%
Top 25% return: +11.45%
Exception: 2018 saw a -7.8% drop in the second half.
Opinion
A two-month rally often signals continued upside, supported by seasonality and investor sentiment. In today’s tech-heavy market, sensitivity to rates and policy could further amplify this momentum.
Core Sell Point
A May–June rally has historically been a strong statistical setup for second-half gains—a signal investors shouldn’t ignore.
A back-to-back rally in May and June has historically been a strong setup for the S&P 500.
Since 1988, this pattern has occurred 16 times. In 15 of those years (93.8%), the market continued to climb over the next six months. The average return was +8.8%, with even the bottom quartile posting a solid +5.9%. Top quartile returns reached +11.45%.
<6-month return distribution after May–June rallies (1988–2024)>
- Mean: 8.81%
- 25th percentile: 5.90%
- 75th percentile: 11.45%
There are rare exceptions. In 2018, despite early strength, the index fell 7.8% in the second half—reminding us that outside shocks or policy shifts can break momentum.
Still, history leans bullish. Unless macro risks intervene, a strong May–June tends to set the tone for a strong finish.
[Compliance Note]
- All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.
- The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.
- Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
45
0
0
Comments
0
Please leave a comment first