셀스마트 SIK
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2 weeks ago
S&P 500 Rallies in May and June — What Comes Next?
A back-to-back rally in May and June has historically been a strong setup for the S&P 500.Since 1988, this pattern has occurred 16 times. In 15 of those years (93.8%), the market continued to climb over the next six months. The average return was +8.8%, with even the bottom quartile posting a solid +5.9%. Top quartile returns reached +11.45%.<6-month return distribution after May–June rallies (1988–2024)>Mean: 8.81%25th percentile: 5.90%75th percentile: 11.45%There are rare exceptions. In 2018, despite early strength, the index fell 7.8% in the second half—reminding us that outside shocks or policy shifts can break momentum.Still, history leans bullish. Unless macro risks intervene, a strong May–June tends to set the tone for a strong finish.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
