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The upcoming Q4 earnings report is a critical event that could shape the AI semiconductor market. As NVIDIA faces its first major test since the DeepSeek incident, global investors are closely watching whether the company can reassure the market with strong results or fall short of expectations, triggering a broader tech sector correction. Core16 has conducted a comprehensive quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors navigate this earnings season.

Significance of This Earnings Report

First Earnings Report Since DeepSeek’s AI Model Announcement

In late January, Chinese AI startup DeepSeek introduced a large-scale AI model, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of NVIDIA’s high-end GPU business model. As a result, NVIDIA’s stock plummeted 17% in a single day. This earnings release will be crucial in proving NVIDIA’s resilience following the DeepSeek shock.

Impact of Mass Production of 'Blackwell' AI Chips

NVIDIA began mass-producing its latest AI data center GPU architecture, Blackwell, in late 2024. This earnings call will provide insights into the success of Blackwell’s market adoption and its contribution to NVIDIA’s revenue growth.

Given these factors, this report is seen as a major inflection point in the AI semiconductor industry. The battle between AI optimization technologies (like DeepSeek) and high-performance GPU demand will be a key focus, with NVIDIA’s earnings serving as a decisive indicator.

Broader Impact on Tech Stocks

As a megacap stock with significant market influence, NVIDIA’s earnings can drive the overall tech sector. While the correlation between NVIDIA and the S&P 500 has dropped from 71% to 30% since the DeepSeek incident, NVIDIA’s psychological impact on market sentiment remains strong.

• If earnings exceed expectations, tech stocks could see a renewed rally.

• If earnings disappoint, the entire sector’s risk appetite may decline, leading to broader weakness.

Market Consensus & Earnings Forecast

The market consensus for NVIDIA’s Q4 earnings:

• Revenue: ~$38 billion (+72% YoY)

• EPS: $0.84

However, some analysts have raised concerns about slowing growth in the traditional GPU business and headwinds from U.S. export restrictions to China. Overall, the market sees this earnings report as a key test for the AI semiconductor investment cycle, with expectations that NVIDIA will meet or exceed forecasts.

Historical Earnings Patterns & Expected Price Movements

If an Earnings Surprise (EPS Beat) Occurs

• 5 trading days after earnings: Historically, NVIDIA’s stock rises +2.21% on average after a surprise.

• 20 trading days after earnings: Mid-term gains tend to persist, with an average return of +3.69%.

If an Earnings Shock (EPS Miss) Occurs

• 5 trading days after earnings: While a decline is likely, partial rebounds have been observed, with an average return of +0.19%.

• 20 trading days after earnings: Even after short-term weakness, mid-term recovery has been strong, with an average gain of +6.74%.

Investor Strategy

If NVIDIA Reports an Earnings Surprise

• Consider partial profit-taking if the stock surges post-earnings.

• Since a continued uptrend is likely, holding for mid-term gains may be a better strategy.

• If short-term pullbacks occur after the announcement, use dips as buying opportunities.

If NVIDIA Reports an Earnings Shock

• Immediate post-earnings volatility is likely to be high, so a wait-and-see approach is advisable.

• As a mid-term rebound (20 days later) is historically strong, a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy could be effective if the stock declines significantly.

Rather than reacting to short-term price swings, investors should focus on the long-term trend and position strategically based on historical patterns.

[Compliance Note]

• All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.

• The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.

• Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.