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U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have experienced significant outflows throughout March, intensifying downward pressure on the market. According to Farside Investors, more than $1.6 billion exited Bitcoin spot ETFs in the first 17 days of March, while inflows during the same period totaled only $351 million.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) saw $552 million in outflows, while Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) lost $517 million, making them the most impacted funds. Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) also recorded over $200 million in outflows, with minimal new inflows. However, Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF (BTC) showed a net inflow of $55 million, marking an exception to the overall trend.

Bitcoin remains unable to break through the $85,000 resistance level, fluctuating between $84,000 and $85,200 amid investor caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting. The market currently estimates a 99% probability that interest rates will remain at 4.25%–4.50%, while discussions on ending quantitative tightening (QT) could play a crucial role in Bitcoin’s price movements.

In a bearish scenario, if Bitcoin falls below $78,000, the likelihood of further declines increases, with $74,000 expected to act as a key support level. In an extreme downturn, prices could drop to the $71,300–$73,800 range, where a potential rebound would determine the market’s next direction. Conversely, in a bullish scenario, breaking above $85,000 could open the door for further gains toward $90,000 and beyond.

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