KeyBanc가 Apple 투자의견을 섹터중립에서 저평가로 하향
목표주가 200달러 제시 (현재가 대비 13% 하락여력)
2024년 들어 주가 20% 상승
소비자 설문조사 결과 59%가 iPhone 16 업그레이드 관심
현재 P/E는 34.4배 수준
48명의 애널리스트 중 35명 매수/강력매수, 12명 보유, 1명 저평가 의견
Opinion
Apple의 새로운 iPhone SE는 전체 iPhone 판매에 순수 추가 효과를 주지 못할 것으로 보입니다. iPhone 16 업그레이드 의향자 중 61%가 iPhone SE에도 관심을 보이고 있어, SE 모델이 iPhone 16 판매를 잠식할 가능성이 있습니다. 또한 미국 시장의 업그레이드 비율이 2024년 4분기에는 중간 한 자릿수, 2025년 상반기에는 낮은 한 자릿수 하락이 예상됩니다. 시장은 2025년 모든 제품 카테고리와 지역에서 성장을 기대하고 있지만, 이는 현실적으로 달성하기 어려울 것으로 보입니다.
Core Sell Point
iPhone SE의 잠재적 자기잠식 효과와 전반적인 성장 둔화 우려, 그리고 높은 밸류에이션으로 인해 KeyBanc가 유일하게 Apple에 대해 저평가 의견을 제시했습니다
Recent consumer survey data on iPhone sales points to a lack of growth for Apple , according to KeyBanc Capital Markets. Analyst Brandon Nispel downgraded the megacap tech name to underweight from sector weight, and his $200 price target reflects more than 13% downside ahead, as of Thursday’s close. Shares fell nearly 1% in the premarket following the analyst’s move. Year to date, the stock has soared nearly 20%. AAPL YTD mountain AAPL, year-to-date Nispel thinks the iPhone SE is “not purely additive” to overall iPhone sales, citing data from the firm’s consumer iPhone survey for September. The survey showed that 59% of respondents are interested in upgrading to the iPhone 16. Additionally, among those who are likely or extremely likely to upgrade to the iPhone 16, 61% are interested in the iPhone SE. “We think this shows the iPhone SE is not incremental, and could possibly be cannibalistic to iPhone 16 sales,” the analyst wrote in a Thursday note. “From our view, if iPhone SE is successful, iPhone Units could rise but [average sales prices] could fall, contrary to consensus.” On top of that, Nispel anticipates that upgrade rates in the U.S. are not likely to move higher heading into next year. In fact, they could be down mid-single digits in the fourth quarter and low single digits in the first half of 2025. Meanwhile, he thinks an inflection across the company’s product categories is “unrealistic” moving forward. “Consensus expects Apple ’25 revenue growth to accelerate higher and to grow across all product categories and geographies,” he continued. “While it is certainly possible Apple can achieve this feat, it is not probable, in our view.” The analyst also pointed to an expensive valuation. The name currently has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 34.4, according to FactSet. Nispel’s downgrade makes him the lone analyst covering the stock with an underperform-equivalent rating. LSEG data shows that 35 of 48 analysts rate Apple as a buy or strong buy, while another 12 have a hold rating.
