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"Spring Is Coming"... Morgan Stanley Raises Target Prices for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix (Mar 19, 2025)

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"Spring Is Coming"... Morgan Stanley Raises Target Prices for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix (Mar 19, 2025)

Morgan Stanley, which had maintained a conservative outlook on the semiconductor market, has now raised its target prices for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. With DRAM and NAND flash prices rebounding and production cuts by major players taking effect, expectations for gradual market recovery are growing.In a report, 'DRAM-Looking beyond the valley' released on March 18, Morgan Stanley increased its target price for Samsung Electronics from 65,000 KRW to 70,000 KRW and for SK Hynix from 150,000 KRW to 230,000 KRW. While Samsung retained its "Overweight" rating, SK Hynix’s rating was upgraded from "Underweight" to "Neutral".The semiconductor market is seeing the full impact of NAND flash production cuts, with prices expected to rise by up to 10% in Q2. Additionally, China’s AI investment and economic stimulus policies are expected to positively impact DRAM supply and demand. However, weak consumer sentiment and intensifying price competition from Chinese semiconductor firms could challenge the sustainability of the current uptrend.Morgan Stanley sees greater upside potential in Samsung Electronics compared to SK Hynix. While HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) market growth is already priced in, Samsung is expected to benefit more from NAND production cuts and a slower decline in DRAM prices, leading to a clearer earnings recovery.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Samsung & SK Hynix to Raise NAND Prices in April, Signaling Memory Market Recovery (Mar 17, 2025)

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Samsung & SK Hynix to Raise NAND Prices in April, Signaling Memory Market Recovery (Mar 17, 2025)

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are set to join other global memory chip manufacturers in raising NAND flash prices next month. As supply cuts take effect and demand gradually recovers, the NAND market, which has been in a prolonged downturn, could see a rebound.According to Taiwan’s DigiTimes, Samsung and SK Hynix plan to increase NAND prices by approximately 10% in April, aligning with similar moves by Western Digital’s spinoff, SanDisk. Market insiders suggest that Samsung has already taken steps to prepare for this price hike by significantly reducing its NAND supply. Reports indicate that Samsung’s March NAND shipments amounted to only 20–25% of original orders, with the company citing production constraints—though industry sources believe this is a strategic move to support price increases.The NAND price hikes appear inevitable as several major manufacturers have already announced similar measures. SanDisk previously stated that it would raise prices by over 10% starting April 1 and hinted at further increases in Q2. Following this, Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) and China’s YMTC (Yangtze Memory Technologies) also announced upcoming price adjustments.The NAND market’s gradual recovery is being driven by supply cuts from major manufacturers. Since last year, the world’s top five NAND producers—including Samsung and SK Hynix—have actively reduced production. SK Hynix plans to cut Q1 NAND shipments by nearly 20% compared to the previous quarter, while Samsung is expected to reduce supply by about 10%. Micron officially announced a mid-teen percentage reduction in NAND wafer input, while SanDisk, prior to its spin-off from Western Digital, notified customers of a 15% production cut. Japan’s Kioxia has also been curbing production since December.Reflecting these supply adjustments, NAND spot prices are already rebounding. According to DRAMeXchange, the average selling price (ASP) of 128Gb NAND dropped from $4.90 in September to $2.08 in December, marking four consecutive months of decline. However, as of February 24, NAND prices increased 4.57% month-over-month to $2.18. Another market research firm, TrendForce, predicts that while NAND prices may remain weak in the first half of 2025, they will begin a sustained upward trend in the second half of the year.Samsung and SK Hynix currently lead the global NAND market, with 33.9% and 20.5% market shares, respectively, as of Q4 2024. They are followed by Kioxia (16.1%), Micron (13.8%), and SanDisk (11.4%).

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Samsung Targets AI-Optimized SSD Market with ‘Titan’ to Unlock New Memory Revenue Streams (Mar 14, 2025)

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Samsung Targets AI-Optimized SSD Market with ‘Titan’ to Unlock New Memory Revenue Streams (Mar 14, 2025)

Samsung Electronics is accelerating its push into the enterprise SSD market, leveraging the rapid adoption of generative AI technologies. Through its ‘Titan’ project, the company aims to integrate AI-optimized controllers into its SSDs, offering them as a subscription-based service to enhance AI processing efficiency in data centers. This strategy is designed to create new revenue streams amid a sluggish rebound in the DRAM and NAND flash markets.The Titan project involves long-term subscription contracts with major global server providers, ensuring seamless AI integration into enterprise storage solutions. Samsung’s ultra-high-capacity SSDs, built on proprietary technology, focus on maintaining a competitive edge over rivals, while also strengthening customer retention (lock-in effect).The global SSD market is experiencing rapid expansion. Market research projects growth from KRW 95 trillion (USD 72 billion) in 2024 to KRW 213 trillion (USD 162 billion) by 2029. Samsung retained its leading position in the enterprise SSD segment with a 39.5% market share in Q4 2024, but faces intensifying competition from SK Hynix and other industry players.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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"Analysts Afraid to Issue 'Sell' Ratings While Korean Market Weakens" (Oct 30, 2024)

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"Analysts Afraid to Issue 'Sell' Ratings While Korean Market Weakens" (Oct 30, 2024)

The influence of global investment banks (IBs) on Korean stocks has never been stronger. On September 15, Morgan Stanley slashed SK Hynix's target price from 260,000 KRW to 120,000 KRW, downgrading its rating from "Buy" to "Sell." When trading resumed after the Chuseok holiday on September 19, SK Hynix shares plummeted 6.14%. Similarly, Macquarie recently cut Samsung Electronics' target price from 125,000 KRW to 64,000 KRW, downgrading it from "Buy" to "Neutral." As a result, Samsung’s stock fell below 60,000 KRW, marking a new 52-week low.Why Are Korea’s Leading Stocks Collapsing?There are two key reasons for this:1. Korean Analysts’ Reluctance to Issue ‘Sell’ RatingsDomestic analysts almost never publish ‘Sell’ reports, making foreign IB research seem more credible to investors. With Korean securities firms consistently issuing "Buy" ratings, investors turn to foreign reports for more objective insights—which has triggered massive sell-offs in stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.The issue stems from the conflict of interest between brokerage firms and the companies they cover. Since securities firms earn fees from these companies, issuing negative reports risks upsetting corporate clients. As a result, even when companies underperform, analysts continue to recommend buying.One notable example occurred in April 2023, when an analyst issued the first "Sell" rating on EcoPro. The Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) launched an investigation, suspecting collusion with short-sellers. While the FSS later justified its actions as a response to investor complaints, the incident demonstrated the risks analysts face when issuing negative ratings.2. Weak Market Structure & Investor SentimentThe second issue is the fragility of the Korean stock market itself. The impact of foreign reports is so severe because domestic investors lack the buying power to counteract foreign sell-offs.Even when global semiconductor companies received similar downgrades, Korean firms suffered disproportionately larger stock declines, exposing the weakness of Korea’s capital markets. This issue is further compounded by:Heavy reliance on foreign investment, making local stocks vulnerable to external shocks.Lack of domestic institutional support, meaning retail investors often bear the brunt of market volatility.Conspiracy Theories & Market Manipulation ConcernsWhenever major stocks collapse, conspiracy theories about market manipulation arise. Some suspect coordination between short-sellers and foreign IBs, particularly after Morgan Stanley’s Seoul branch sold 1.01 million SK Hynix shares just before issuing its bearish report on October 13.However, there’s no clear evidence of illegal activity. Foreign ownership of SK Hynix still remains at 54%, and accusations of front-running would require proof that these banks intentionally manipulated the market—an unlikely scenario given the regulatory risks.The Need for Reform: Strengthening Korea’s Capital MarketsInstead of chasing conspiracy theories, Korea must address the root causes of the problem:Enhancing Analyst Independence: Analysts must be able to issue objective research without corporate or regulatory pressure.Strengthening Domestic Institutional Support: Korea must build a more resilient market structure to absorb external shocks.Ending ‘Buy-Only’ Research Culture: Securities firms must prioritize credibility over client relationships to rebuild investor trust.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Where Is Lee Jae-yong's Leadership? The Reality of Samsung’s Crisis (Oct 22, 2024)

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Where Is Lee Jae-yong's Leadership? The Reality of Samsung’s Crisis (Oct 22, 2024)

Concerns over Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Jae-yong's leadership are growing both domestically and internationally. Critics argue that Samsung has failed to respond proactively in the semiconductor industry, while also facing internal inefficiencies that require urgent restructuring.Leadership Under ScrutinyLee Jae-yong marks his 2nd anniversary as chairman on October 27, but Samsung has no official plans for a statement.The company also approaches its 55th anniversary (Nov 1) and 50 years in semiconductors (Dec 6), raising speculation about future strategic directions.Despite his public appearances—such as the fourth anniversary of Samsung’s pediatric cancer support program on Oct 21—Lee has remained silent on the company's ongoing challenges.Samsung’s Mounting Crisis1. Semiconductor SetbacksFalling Behind in Foundry & Advanced Chips:TSMC dominates AI-driven demand, securing contracts with NVIDIA, Apple, AMD, and Qualcomm.Samsung’s foundry & system LSI division posted over ₩1 trillion in losses in Q3.In 2011, Samsung’s non-memory sales were 88% of TSMC’s; by 2023, this shrank to just 25%.Despite ₩15 trillion annual investments, the gap is widening.Taiwan’s Digitimes (Oct 15) stated that Samsung’s price competition strategy failed due to poor yield rates.HBM Missteps:SK Hynix leads the HBM market, securing early dominance in AI-driven memory.Samsung disbanded its HBM R&D team in 2019, now struggling to catch up.2. Stock Performance & Investor SentimentStock Price:October 21 closing price: ₩59,000 (-0.34%).Hit 52-week low amid continued foreign selling.Foreign investors dumped ₩12.6 trillion worth of Samsung shares over two months.Investor Confidence Eroding:Morgan Stanley's “Winter Looms” report forecasts a semiconductor downturn due to DRAM oversupply and HBM price declines.Macquarie downgraded Samsung to "Neutral" from "Buy".3. Inefficient Decision-Making StructureExcessive Influence of Samsung’s Business Support TF (Task Force):Led by Vice Chairman Chung Hyun-ho, this unit is criticized for slow, risk-averse decision-making.Compared to Intel’s past missteps, where middle management bottlenecks delayed crucial technology transitions.Internal Criticism & Employee Frustration:Employee forum discussions describe a rigid, top-heavy reporting structure stifling innovation and accountability.4. Lack of Bold Strategic MovesLeadership & Talent Strategy Issues:May 2024 appointment of new semiconductor chief Jeon Young-hyun was seen as too conservative.No major acquisitions or aggressive R&D initiatives have been pursued.Samsung’s Crisis = Korea’s Crisis?Samsung accounted for 18% of Korea’s total exports in 2023 (₩150 trillion out of ₩830 trillion).KDI research (2017) showed that shocks to Korea’s top 3 corporations explain 59% of macroeconomic volatility—highlighting Samsung’s systemic importance.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Morgan Stanley Downgrade Sends SK Hynix Down 7%, Samsung Hits 1-Year Low (Sep 19, 2024)

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Morgan Stanley Downgrade Sends SK Hynix Down 7%, Samsung Hits 1-Year Low (Sep 19, 2024)

Shares of SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics plunged in early trading on September 19, following a sharp target price cut by Morgan Stanley. The report, released during the Korean Chuseok holiday, significantly lowered its valuation for both chipmakers, triggering investor concerns.Market ReactionAs of 9:25 AM KST:SK Hynix fell 7.00% (-₩11,400) to ₩151,400.Samsung Electronics dropped 1.71% (-₩1,100) to ₩63,300, hitting an intraday low of ₩62,700—its lowest in a year.Morgan Stanley's Downgrade: "Winter Looms"New Target Prices:SK Hynix: ₩260,000 → ₩120,000 (-54%)Samsung Electronics: ₩105,000 → ₩76,000 (-27%)Key Reasons for Downgrade:DRAM Cycle Peaking in Q4 → Downturn expected through 2026.HBM Oversupply Risk → Rising production may push prices down.Chinese Chipmakers Expanding Aggressively → Increased competition may erode Korean firms’ dominance.Morgan Stanley's pessimistic outlook follows its August warning—"Prepare for the semiconductor cycle peak"—which questioned whether the industry could sustain its 2025 growth expectations.The "Winter Looms" title echoes its 2021 report, "Memory Winter is Coming," which accurately predicted the last downturn. This historical accuracy may explain the market's strong reaction.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Conflicting Views on Samsung: What’s Next for Investors? (Aug 9, 2024)

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Conflicting Views on Samsung: What’s Next for Investors? (Aug 9, 2024)

Analysts remain deeply divided on Samsung Electronics, with some raising target prices to ₩130,000, while others cut them below ₩100,000.The key debate centers around Samsung’s position in the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market. While some see a turnaround with HBM3E mass production, others fear oversupply risks.For now, the market leans bullish, citing rising CAPEX guidance from Big Tech companies as a key tailwind for AI infrastructure investments.Brokerage Target Price RevisionsBullish: KB Securities (₩120,000 → ₩130,000)Justification: HBM3E supply ramp-up.Kim Dong-won (Head of Research, KB Securities):"Samsung is entering a phase where concerns are rapidly turning into optimism.""With HBM3E mass production expected in Q4, we see Samsung as the top KOSPI pick for H2."Samsung lags SK Hynix in HBM3E adoption:SK Hynix began HBM3E 8-layer supply to NVIDIA in March and will start HBM3E 12-layer shipments in Q4.Samsung is still undergoing NVIDIA’s quality testing and plans Q3 mass production for HBM3E 8-layer, with HBM3E 12-layer shipments later this year.Bearish: iM Securities (formerly Hi Investment & Securities) (₩101,000 → ₩97,000)Concerns:HBM oversupply risk in 2025.Samsung’s HBM3E supply ramp-up may intensify competition, leading to pricing pressure.AI investment bubble concerns.Song Myung-seop (iM Securities):"This year, HBM demand is expected to reach 880 million GB, but production plans total 1.38 billion GB.""If NVIDIA begins purchasing Samsung’s HBM3E, we could see oversupply and margin compression in the HBM sector."Additionally, NVIDIA’s Blackwell AI accelerator delay could further impact Samsung’s HBM3E adoption.The Information (U.S. tech media):Blackwell production was postponed from late 2024 to Q1 2025.Since HBM3E is a core component of Blackwell, delays could push back Samsung’s shipments.However, KB Securities argues this could work in Samsung’s favor, allowing it more time for mass production preparation.Big Tech CAPEX: The AI Investment Cycle ContinuesDespite AI bubble concerns, Big Tech companies continue to raise AI-related infrastructure spending.Meta increased 2024 CAPEX guidance from $35B → $37B.H1 CAPEX: $15.2BH2 projected CAPEX: $21.8BMicrosoft and Amazon have also signaled higher H2 spending.Shin Ji-hyun (Shinhan Investment & Securities):"Meta’s CAPEX revision reaffirms strong confidence in AI investment."If quarter-over-quarter CAPEX increases, this could fuel further AI value chain growth, benefiting Samsung’s AI-related semiconductor sales.Legacy DRAM & NAND: Supply Shortages Emerging?While HBM faces supply concerns, legacy DRAM and NAND markets are tightening.Morgan Stanley:"The shift toward HBM has created investment gaps in traditional DRAM, leading to potential shortages."Predicts a 23% demand-supply gap in DRAM for 2024, driving price increases.DRAM Pricing:PC DRAM (DDR4 8Gb 1Gx8): $2.10 (as of July 31, stable for 3 months).Shinhan Investment:"Stronger-than-expected memory price growth could offset some of the bearish pressures on Samsung’s stock."Samsung plans to mass-produce QLC-based 64TB and 128TB eSSD products in H2 2024, aiming to capitalize on NAND pricing recovery.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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"Samsung Target Price Slashed from ₩125,000 to ₩64,000"—Inside Macquarie’s Report (Oct 1, 2024)

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"Samsung Target Price Slashed from ₩125,000 to ₩64,000"—Inside Macquarie’s Report (Oct 1, 2024)

Global brokerage Macquarie has cut its target price for Samsung Electronics by 50%, citing deteriorating memory market conditions. This follows a similarly bearish outlook from Morgan Stanley, marking another harsh assessment of the Korean semiconductor industry from foreign investment banks.Macquarie’s Key TakeawaysAccording to the financial investment industry, Macquarie downgraded Samsung from "Buy" to "Neutral" in a late-September report and cut its target price from ₩125,000 to ₩64,000 (-48.8%).Reasons for the Downgrade:Memory Market Downcycle → Declining profitability.DRAM Oversupply → ASP (Average Selling Price) is reversing downward.Weak Demand from Downstream Industries → Pressuring earnings.HBM Supply Delays to NVIDIA → Weakening stock momentum.Macquarie even raised the possibility that Samsung could lose its status as the world’s No.1 DRAM supplier.Additionally, Samsung’s HBM revenue forecast for 2026 is only $13 billion, compared to SK Hynix’s $30 billion—just 43% of its competitor’s projected sales.How Does This Compare to Korean Brokerages?While domestic securities firms have also been lowering Samsung’s target price, none have made a cut as drastic as Macquarie’s.Park Yoo-jin (Kiwoom Securities) argues that DRAM investment is not excessive and believes the market will shift from oversupply (2024) to undersupply (2025).This contrast suggests that Korean analysts may still be overly optimistic, underestimating the depth of the structural challenges Samsung faces.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Samsung’s Semiconductor Profit Could Again Fall Behind SK Hynix (Oct 6, 2024)

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Samsung’s Semiconductor Profit Could Again Fall Behind SK Hynix (Oct 6, 2024)

Samsung Electronics’ semiconductor (DS) division may report lower Q3 earnings than SK Hynix, as the latter continues to dominate the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market.Concerns over a prolonged semiconductor downturn are now compounded by fears that Samsung could lose its position as the world’s top DRAM supplier. Reflecting this uncertainty, Samsung’s market cap share on the KOSPI has dropped to a two-year low.Q3 Earnings Forecast: Samsung vs. SK HynixSamsung Electronics is set to release its Q3 preliminary results on October 8. While detailed segment earnings will not be disclosed, the DS division is expected to contribute over 50% of total operating profit.According to FnGuide, Samsung’s Q3 projections are:Revenue: ₩80.9 trillionOperating profit: ₩10.77 trillionDS division operating profit: ₩5 trillion rangeMemory business profit estimate: ₩5.2 trillion – ₩6.3 trillionSince Samsung’s foundry and system LSI segments remain weak, most of the DS division’s earnings will come from memory chips.In contrast, SK Hynix is expected to report:Revenue: ₩18.1 trillionOperating profit: ₩6.77 trillionIf these forecasts hold, SK Hynix’s memory business could surpass Samsung’s DS division by ₩400 billion to ₩1.5 trillion.This would mark another quarter where SK Hynix outperforms Samsung’s semiconductor division, after having done so for five consecutive quarters from Q1 2022 to Q1 2024. Samsung briefly regained its lead in Q2 2024, but its position is once again at risk.Analysts now speculate that SK Hynix could overtake Samsung in full-year semiconductor operating profit, something previously unimaginable.HBM: The Market Shift Driving SK Hynix’s EdgeThe HBM segment is a key driver of this shift. HBM chips are 3 to 5 times more expensive than standard DRAM, and SK Hynix currently leads this market, securing lucrative contracts with major AI players like NVIDIA.Reflecting these concerns, Macquarie recently downgraded Samsung’s investment rating from "Buy" to "Neutral" and slashed its target price by 50%, from ₩125,000 → ₩64,000.Following Macquarie’s report, domestic securities firms also lowered their price targets, further pressuring Samsung’s stock.On October 2, Samsung hit a 52-week low of ₩59,900 intraday. As of last month, Samsung’s common stock market cap share on the KOSPI fell to 18.61%, its lowest level since October 2022 (18.05%).Samsung’s Response: AI Vision Amid Competitive ChallengesOn October 4, Samsung hosted its 2024 Tech Forum in Silicon Valley, gathering global industry leaders to discuss AI and future business strategies.At the event, Han Jong-hee, CEO of Samsung DX (Device eXperience) division, emphasized:“Samsung is committed to developing AI that enhances daily life.”“Through 'AI for All,' we envision another technological transformation for the future.”However, Samsung’s AI ambitions contrast sharply with its current market challenges. The company’s lagging position in the HBM market suggests that it is struggling to translate its AI vision into real technological leadership.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Falling Price Targets… Only False Hope Remains for Semiconductors (Sep 23, 2024)

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Falling Price Targets… Only False Hope Remains for Semiconductors (Sep 23, 2024)

Concerns over a deteriorating semiconductor outlook continue to grow, weighing heavily on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Once flooded with bullish forecasts, securities firms are now rapidly slashing their price targets.On September 19, Samsung Electronics hit a new 52-week low of ₩62,200, while SK Hynix briefly fell to the ₩150,000 range, returning to levels seen at the beginning of the year.According to FnGuide on September 23, the average price targets for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, as of September 22, stood at:Samsung Electronics: ₩101,958SK Hynix: ₩262,280This represents a 7.97% drop for Samsung Electronics from ₩110,783 on August 22, and a 4.51% decline for SK Hynix from ₩274,667 over the past month.Ironically, securities firms were raising price targets for both companies as recently as July and August, even as AI investment concerns started to weigh on semiconductor stocks. Now, they have reversed their forecasts.Securities Firms’ Shifting Price TargetsAn analysis of this year’s price target trends shows that July and August saw the highest projections, only for them to be cut sharply in September:Samsung Electronics’ average price target (by month):January: ₩94,621April: ₩104,647June: ₩109,071July: ₩110,692August: ₩113,462 → 80% above the current price (₩62,600)September: ₩97,750 (14% decline from August)Some firms have lowered targets below their January estimates:BNK Securities: ₩86,000 → ₩81,000NH Investment & Securities: ₩95,000 → ₩92,000Korea Investment & Securities: ₩99,000 → ₩96,000SK Hynix’s price target trend:January: ₩169,000July: ₩277,655 (+64% from January)September: ₩253,750 (-8% from July)Global Analysts Turn Bearish on SemiconductorsThe bearish sentiment isn’t limited to South Korea. Morgan Stanley, which recently slashed its price targets for Samsung and SK Hynix, also downgraded ASML, a key semiconductor equipment supplier, from "Overweight" to "Neutral".According to FnGuide, analysts from at least three institutions have cut their estimates for Samsung Electronics' Q3 earnings:Operating profit estimate: ₩11.70 trillion (14.3% lower than a month ago)Revenue estimate: ₩81.89 trillion (down 2.6%)SK Hynix’s Q3 forecasts have also been trimmed:Revenue: ₩18.20 trillion (-0.9%)Operating profit: ₩6.94 trillion (-2.0%)Contradictions in Securities Firms’ RatingsDespite the sharp price target cuts, no securities firm has downgraded its investment rating on either Samsung or SK Hynix. In fact, some analysts have even raised their ratings:Kiwoom Securities upgraded SK Hynix from "Market Perform" to "Buy" in August.Yuanta Securities’ Baek Gil-hyun, who cut his Samsung Electronics price target from ₩110,000 to ₩90,000 and SK Hynix from ₩270,000 to ₩220,000, still maintains a "Buy" recommendation.He argues that the semiconductor industry remains a "sector to overweight," predicting a rebound in 2025 as inventory adjustments end and AI-driven IT demand returns.However, most analysts agree that semiconductor stocks will remain volatile in the near term.Q4 Guidance Will Be a Key Market CatalystKB Securities’ Lee Eun-taek emphasized that upcoming earnings releases from Micron and Samsung Electronics will be crucial.“Unless we see a major upside surprise, volatility will persist.”“The most important factor will be guidance for mid-Q4.Depending on the outlook, the market may either fully price in negative factors or immediately rebound.”[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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End of Tightening Cycle: Rate Cuts Begin, but Market Cautious (Sep 19, 2024)

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End of Tightening Cycle: Rate Cuts Begin, but Market Cautious (Sep 19, 2024)

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has officially ended its four-and-a-half-year tightening cycle by cutting interest rates at the September FOMC meeting. The 50 basis point (bp) cut ("big cut") has sparked uncertainty in global markets, with increased volatility expected in the near term.As concerns about an economic slowdown persist, investors are likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach until key economic indicators are released at the end of the month.According to the Korea Exchange on September 19, the KOSPI closed at 2,580.80, up 5.39 points (0.21%) from the previous session.Although the Fed’s rate cut met market expectations, foreign investors were net sellers, dragging down the KOSPI. Foreign investors offloaded ₩1.1765 trillion worth of shares, marking the largest sell-off since "Black Monday" on August 5.Semiconductor Stocks Drag Down the MarketSemiconductor stocks, which dominate the Korean stock market, failed to rally. Morgan Stanley sharply cut its price targets for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix during the Chuseok holiday, further weakening investor sentiment.SK Hynix’s price target: Slashed from ₩260,000 to ₩120,000 → Stock plunged 6.14%.Samsung Electronics’ price target: Cut from ₩105,000 to ₩76,000 → Stock fell over 2%.The KOSDAQ index also saw a rollercoaster session, opening higher, dropping 0.45% intraday, before rebounding 0.86% to close at 739.51.U.S. Markets React Volatilely to Rate CutOn September 18 (U.S. time), Wall Street experienced significant swings following the Fed’s rate cut.Dow Jones: +375.79 points intraday → Closed -103 points (-0.25%) at 41,503.10.S&P 500 and Nasdaq: Hit new all-time highs intraday → Closed lower.Investors initially cheered the large rate cut, but sentiment deteriorated on concerns that the Fed was preemptively responding to a potential economic downturn.Fed Chair Jerome Powell attempted to downplay recession fears, stating that there was no clear evidence of a heightened risk of recession. However, his remarks failed to ease market concerns.Key Economic Data to WatchMarket participants await key U.S. economic indicators at the end of September, which could determine the market's next direction. If economic slowdown fears resurface, a deeper market decline is possible.September 23: U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMIAugust PMI: 47.2 (up from 46.8 in July but still below the expansion threshold of 50).September 26: U.S. Q2 GDPFed revised 2024 GDP growth forecast from 2.1% → 2.0%.September 27: U.S. August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index (Fed’s preferred inflation measure).Diverging Views: Caution vs. Rebound PotentialChoi Sung-rak, Head of Stock Analysis at the International Finance Center, highlighted recession risks:"The biggest risk for equity markets is economic slowdown.""This year’s stock market rally was driven by corporate earnings, making markets more sensitive to recession fears.""AI and semiconductor stocks have already corrected about 15% from their July highs. If there is no sector rotation into other industries, the broader market could see an extended correction."Some analysts argue that foreign capital inflows could trigger a sharp rebound.Cho Joon-ki, SK Securities:"If the right reversal trigger emerges, the market could bounce back strongly.""This rate cut cycle is likely to be a soft landing rather than a response to a recession.""If risk appetite returns, a massive foreign capital inflow could fuel an explosive rally."Bank of America Global Research expects further aggressive rate cuts:Q4 2024: 75 bp cuts.2025: 125 bp additional cuts.The Fed has two more FOMC meetings scheduled for November and December.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Why Is ‘₩50,000 Samsung’ Struggling While Global Semiconductor Stocks Soar? (Oct 11, 2024)

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Why Is ‘₩50,000 Samsung’ Struggling While Global Semiconductor Stocks Soar? (Oct 11, 2024)

Samsung Electronics' stock price has fallen below ₩60,000 for the first time in 17 months, despite the strong performance of U.S. semiconductor stocks. As South Korea’s largest market-cap stock struggles, the KOSPI index failed to break above 2,600, closing in the 2,500 range. Meanwhile, the U.S. stock market hit record highs, boosted by tech stock gains and falling oil prices.According to the Korea Exchange on October 10, Samsung Electronics closed at ₩58,900, down 2.32%, marking its lowest level since March 16, 2023 (₩59,900) and setting a new 52-week low. The ongoing impact of weak earnings has driven the stock down by over 11% in the past month. Analysts expect continued poor performance in Q4, leading to a wave of target price downgrades.Samsung’s decline also weighed on the broader market, limiting the KOSPI’s gains. While other semiconductor stocks like SK Hynix (+4.89%) and Hanmi Semiconductor (+3.07%) surged, the KOSPI managed only a 0.19% increase, closing at 2,599.16.The Korean stock market has remained sluggish since the global sell-off on August 5. According to the Bank of Korea’s latest international finance and foreign exchange report, foreign investors sold $5.57 billion worth of South Korean stocks in September, marking the largest outflow since May 2021 (-$8.23 billion). The sharp increase in stock outflows also turned South Korea’s overall securities investment (stocks + bonds) into net outflows for the first time since October 2023.U.S. Stocks Hit New Highs as Semiconductor Sector StrengthensIn contrast, the New York Stock Exchange set new record highs:Dow Jones: +1.03% to 42,512.00S&P 500: +0.71% to 5,792.04 (44th all-time high this year)Nasdaq: +0.60% to 18,291.62The semiconductor sector soared, fueled by TSMC’s stronger-than-expected September sales.ASML: +2.63%ARM: +3.36%Qualcomm: +2.33%Falling oil prices also boosted market sentiment. WTI crude oil for November delivery fell 0.45% to $73.24 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.Meanwhile, the release of the September U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes introduced some uncertainty regarding future interest rate cuts, but the market largely shrugged it off. The minutes revealed that several Fed officials supported a ‘small cut’ (0.25 percentage points), contradicting earlier reports that only one official, Michelle Bowman, had backed a cut.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Samsung Electronics Continues Downward Trend as Q3 Earnings Concerns Grow (Sep 11, 2024)

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Samsung Electronics

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Samsung Electronics Continues Downward Trend as Q3 Earnings Concerns Grow (Sep 11, 2024)

Samsung Electronics' stock extended its losing streak for the seventh consecutive session, hitting a new year-to-date low during early trading on September 11.The stock closed at ₩64,900, down 1.96%, marking its seventh straight day of losses since September 3. During the session, it dropped as low as ₩64,200, setting a new 52-week low.Despite NVIDIA’s stock rising 1.53% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gaining 1% on September 10 (U.S. time), investor sentiment toward Samsung Electronics remained weak, failing to stage a rebound.Q3 Earnings Expectations Fall Below Market ConsensusOn the same day, Korea Investment & Securities slashed Samsung Electronics' target price by 20%, citing expectations that Q3 results will fall short of market consensus.Chae Min-sook, an analyst at Korea Investment & Securities, forecasted:Revenue: ₩79.3 trillion (5% below consensus)Operating profit: ₩10.3 trillion (23% below consensus)Chae noted:Samsung has been cutting production since 2023, with a strong focus on HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) production capacity.Due to these factors, supply growth will remain constrained even in 2025.If average selling prices (ASPs) begin to decline, the supply-demand balance will likely persist longer than in previous downturns, leading to a more gradual ASP decline.Daishin Securities analyst Park Kang-ho pointed out that in the first half of the year, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix benefited from:Rising DRAM and NAND prices, which improved profitability.Expansion of HBM supply, a high-margin product.However, in Q3, IT demand remains sluggish, leading to concerns that the pace of DRAM price increases is slowing, which is weighing on investor sentiment.HBM Supply Expansion Becomes a Critical FactorWith growing concerns over Q3 earnings, analysts stress that Samsung Electronics must secure growth momentum through HBM expansion.An industry insider stated:“As DRAM prices begin to decline, expectations for Samsung, which has a higher exposure to legacy memory, have weakened.”“Expanding HBM supply will be a key turning point for a potential recovery in the second half.”[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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"Flagship Retail Stock" Samsung Electronics Sees Market Cap Share Plunge (Oct 6, 2024)

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Samsung Electronics

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"Flagship Retail Stock" Samsung Electronics Sees Market Cap Share Plunge (Oct 6, 2024)

As Samsung Electronics' stock price continues its downward trend, its market capitalization share in the Korean stock market fell to a two-year low last month.According to the Korea Financial Investment Association on October 6, Samsung Electronics' common stock accounted for 18.61% of the total market capitalization on the KOSPI exchange in September. When preferred shares are included, its market cap share stood at 20.72%, marking the lowest level since October 2022.At that time, Samsung’s market cap share was 18.05% for common stock and 20.32% including preferred shares.The market capitalization share is calculated as the monthly average of the total market value of Samsung Electronics' stock relative to the total market value of all KOSPI-listed stocks, based on daily closing prices.Why Is Samsung's Market Cap Share Falling?The decline is attributed to Samsung's sluggish stock performance, driven by:The worst semiconductor downturn in history last year, followed by a slower-than-expected recovery compared to competitors.Losing market leadership in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to SK Hynix, despite HBM’s rapid growth in the AI sector.Delayed supply agreements with NVIDIA, a key AI chip customer.Due to these concerns, both domestic and global brokerage firms have been lowering their price targets for Samsung Electronics since September.Brokerage Firms Slash Samsung's Price TargetOn September 25, Macquarie Securities released a report stating that:Samsung's memory division is entering a down cycle, leading to deteriorating profitability.Oversupply in DRAM and NAND memory will put downward pressure on ASPs (average selling prices), negatively impacting demand and earnings.Target price cut from ₩125,000 → ₩64,000, with investment rating downgraded to "Neutral."Similarly, most domestic securities firms have also lowered their price targets below ₩100,000.Samsung's Continued Weak Stock Performance in OctoberSamsung Electronics' stock slump has persisted into October:On October 4, the stock closed at ₩60,600, down 1.14% from the previous session.Market capitalization stood at ₩361.77 trillion.On October 2, the stock hit an intraday low of ₩59,900, marking a new 52-week low.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Foreign Investors Dump Samsung Electronics for 17 Straight Sessions (Oct 1, 2024)

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Foreign Investors Dump Samsung Electronics for 17 Straight Sessions (Oct 1, 2024)

The semiconductor sector, which saw a brief rebound following Micron Technology’s earnings surprise, has once again plunged. Concerns over a peak-out in the semiconductor cycle persist as Samsung Electronics’ Q3 and Q4 earnings forecasts continue to decline.KOSPI Plunges Below 2,600 Amid Semiconductor Sell-OffOn October 1, the KOSPI index closed at 2,593.27, down 56.51 points (-2.13%) from the previous session. The sharp decline in major semiconductor stocks, including Samsung Electronics, drove the index below the 2,600 level for the first time in three sessions. Foreign investors sold approximately ₩1 trillion worth of KOSPI stocks in a single day.Samsung Electronics Hits New 52-Week LowSamsung Electronics fell 4.21% to close at ₩61,500, marking a new 52-week low.The stock dipped as low as ₩61,000 intraday, a level not seen since March 22, 2023—about 18 months ago.Foreign investors have been net sellers of Samsung Electronics for 17 consecutive trading days, dumping ₩8.62 trillion ($6.4 billion) worth of shares in the past month.SK Hynix also tumbled 5.01% to ₩174,600.Semiconductor Sector Drives Down KOSPI Earnings ForecastsOver the past month, KOSPI’s consolidated operating profit estimates have declined by 4.3%, primarily due to the semiconductor sector.Semiconductors accounted for 3.4 percentage points of this decline, highlighting the industry’s significant drag on overall market performance.Q3 operating profit estimates for the semiconductor sector have been revised down by 12.8%, while Q4 estimates dropped by 11%, according to Daishin Securities’ analyst Lee Kyung-min.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Samsung Electronics Investors Are Bleeding: 81% in Losses Over 3 Years (Oct 2, 2024)

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Samsung Electronics Investors Are Bleeding: 81% in Losses Over 3 Years (Oct 2, 2024)

Over the past three years, 8 out of 10 investors who purchased Samsung Electronics shares have suffered losses. Many investors bought shares above ₩80,000 this year, but as domestic and international securities firms continue to slash their target prices, concerns are mounting.Key DevelopmentsSamsung Electronics Hits 52-Week LowOn October 2, Samsung Electronics closed at ₩61,300, down 0.33% from the previous trading day, marking a new 52-week low. During the day, the stock dipped to ₩59,900, falling below ₩60,000 for the first time since March 16, 2023—a 17-month low.81.59% of Investors Are in the RedAs the stock continues its downward trend, a staggering 81.59% of investors who bought Samsung Electronics shares in the past three years (Oct 1, 2021 – Oct 2, 2024) are now in negative territory, according to Koscom data. The largest concentration of purchases (43.29%) occurred in the ₩70,000–₩79,000 range, making these investors particularly vulnerable.For those who bought shares this year, the losses are even more severe. Among 2024 buyers:31.39% purchased at ₩75,000–₩79,90027.36% bought above ₩80,00028.51% acquired shares at ₩70,000–₩74,900Only 12.76% bought at ₩60,000–₩69,900This indicates that nearly 60% of this year’s buyers are deep underwater, as they expected a rebound to ₩100,000 ("Tenbagger Samsung").Why Is Sentiment Crumbling?Foreign Investors & Analysts Cut ExpectationsForeign investors and brokerage firms have downgraded their outlook, further dampening sentiment:Macquarie downgraded Samsung Electronics from "Buy" to "Neutral"Slashed its target price from ₩125,000 → ₩64,000 (a 49% cut)Cited oversupply in memory chips, declining ASPs (average selling prices), and weak demand from downstream industriesHighlighted delayed HBM shipments to NVIDIA, reducing AI-related growth potentialEstimated Samsung’s HBM revenue for 2026 at $13 billion—only 43% of SK Hynix’s projected $30 billionShinhan Investment Corp. lowered its target price from ₩110,000 → ₩95,000, citing:Weaker-than-expected smartphone demandSlowdown in legacy memory salesReduced Q3–Q4 operating profit estimates (from ₩10.2 trillion)However, Shinhan believes the stock is nearing its PBR (price-to-book ratio) bottom, reducing downside risk. Analyst Kim Hyung-tae noted that most of the bad news is priced in, suggesting a long-term buying opportunity as the memory supply-demand balance stabilizes in 2025.Retail Investors Are Betting on a BottomDespite the grim outlook, retail investors are aggressively buying the dip:In September alone, retail investors net bought ₩8.08 trillion ($6 billion) worth of Samsung shares.Many believe the worst is over and that Samsung is undervalued at current levels.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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LG Energy Solution debuts after $13 trillion frenzy in Korea's biggest IPO(2022-01-27)

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373220

LG Energy Solution

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LG Energy Solution debuts after $13 trillion frenzy in Korea's biggest IPO(2022-01-27)

Shares of battery maker LG Energy Solution (LGES) debuted Thursday after South Korea's biggest-ever initial public offering (IPO) attracted bids worth $13 trillion, underscoring upbeat prospects for the electric vehicle industry.LGES priced its 12.8 trillion won ($10.7 billion) IPO at the top of the range, becoming Korea's third most-valuable company after Samsung Electronics and SK hynix with a nearly $60 billion market valuation.Spun out of LG Chem, the company commands more than 20% of the global EV battery market and supplies Tesla, General Motors and Volkswagen among others.It sold its shares in the offering at 300,000 won each.Its trading debut will set the tone for upcoming IPOs in South Korea as retail investors ― known as "ants" ― have flocked to the stock market with liquidity aided by the government's stimulus policy during the COVID-19 pandemic."It is quite tricky to predict LGES' first-day trading performance, mainly because the market's recent volatility caused by various factors such as investor concerns over the Federal Reserve and how quickly it will move," said Park Jung-hoon, fund manager at HDC Asset Management in Seoul.More than 4.4 million retail investors bid a record 114 trillion won ($95 billion) to subscribe to shares in the IPO, Asia's largest equity fund raising since Alibaba raised $12.9 billion in its Hong Kong secondary listing in 2019.Nearly 2,000 foreign and domestic institutional investors lodged bids worth about $12.8 trillion.More than 20 companies went public on South Korea's main board last year, raising about 17 trillion won, nearly double the previous record of 8.8 trillion won raised in 2010, according to the bourse operator, the Korea Exchange.While LGES' market value is dwarfed by its bigger Chinese rival Contemporary Amperex Technology's (CATL) $208 billion market capitalization, LG Chief Executive Kwon Young-soo has pointed to a 260 trillion won battery order backlog to highlight the company's growth potential.Analysts caution LGES will still likely face growing competition as Chinese peers expand into the global market and more automakers seek to develop their own EV battery technologies. (Reuters)

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LG Energy Solution

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