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KOSPI Rebounds Past 2,600 as Foreign Investors Drive Samsung Electronics Up 5% (Mar 17, 2025)

Neutral

005930

Samsung Electronics

KOSPI Rebounds Past 2,600 as Foreign Investors Drive Samsung Electronics Up 5% (Mar 17, 2025)

On March 17, the KOSPI surged 44.33 points (1.73%) to close at 2,610.69, reclaiming the 2,600 level. The rally was fueled by foreign investors, who net bought ₩6.25 trillion in cash equities and ₩8.66 trillion in KOSPI 200 futures. Institutional program buying also contributed to the index’s upward momentum.Key DriversSamsung Electronics led the rally, surging over 5% in early trading as global investment banks aggressively bought in.Investor sentiment was lifted by rising memory chip price expectations and optimism surrounding NVIDIA’s AI Conference (GTC 2025).Despite the foreign buying spree, retail investors offloaded ₩11.85 trillion worth of stocks, creating a stark divergence in investor behavior.Key TakeawaysKOSPI gains 1.73%, reclaiming the 2,600 levelForeign investors net buy ₩6.25T in equities and ₩8.66T in futuresSamsung Electronics jumps more than 5% on strong foreign demand and AI momentumMarket ImplicationsWhile foreign buying and improving sentiment are bullish signals, the massive retail sell-off raises short-term volatility concerns. Investors should closely watch developments in the memory chip market and AI sector catalysts in the coming weeks.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Neutral

005930

Samsung Electronics

"Analysts Afraid to Issue 'Sell' Ratings While Korean Market Weakens" (Oct 30, 2024)

Sell

005930

Samsung Electronics

"Analysts Afraid to Issue 'Sell' Ratings While Korean Market Weakens" (Oct 30, 2024)

The influence of global investment banks (IBs) on Korean stocks has never been stronger. On September 15, Morgan Stanley slashed SK Hynix's target price from 260,000 KRW to 120,000 KRW, downgrading its rating from "Buy" to "Sell." When trading resumed after the Chuseok holiday on September 19, SK Hynix shares plummeted 6.14%. Similarly, Macquarie recently cut Samsung Electronics' target price from 125,000 KRW to 64,000 KRW, downgrading it from "Buy" to "Neutral." As a result, Samsung’s stock fell below 60,000 KRW, marking a new 52-week low.Why Are Korea’s Leading Stocks Collapsing?There are two key reasons for this:1. Korean Analysts’ Reluctance to Issue ‘Sell’ RatingsDomestic analysts almost never publish ‘Sell’ reports, making foreign IB research seem more credible to investors. With Korean securities firms consistently issuing "Buy" ratings, investors turn to foreign reports for more objective insights—which has triggered massive sell-offs in stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.The issue stems from the conflict of interest between brokerage firms and the companies they cover. Since securities firms earn fees from these companies, issuing negative reports risks upsetting corporate clients. As a result, even when companies underperform, analysts continue to recommend buying.One notable example occurred in April 2023, when an analyst issued the first "Sell" rating on EcoPro. The Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) launched an investigation, suspecting collusion with short-sellers. While the FSS later justified its actions as a response to investor complaints, the incident demonstrated the risks analysts face when issuing negative ratings.2. Weak Market Structure & Investor SentimentThe second issue is the fragility of the Korean stock market itself. The impact of foreign reports is so severe because domestic investors lack the buying power to counteract foreign sell-offs.Even when global semiconductor companies received similar downgrades, Korean firms suffered disproportionately larger stock declines, exposing the weakness of Korea’s capital markets. This issue is further compounded by:Heavy reliance on foreign investment, making local stocks vulnerable to external shocks.Lack of domestic institutional support, meaning retail investors often bear the brunt of market volatility.Conspiracy Theories & Market Manipulation ConcernsWhenever major stocks collapse, conspiracy theories about market manipulation arise. Some suspect coordination between short-sellers and foreign IBs, particularly after Morgan Stanley’s Seoul branch sold 1.01 million SK Hynix shares just before issuing its bearish report on October 13.However, there’s no clear evidence of illegal activity. Foreign ownership of SK Hynix still remains at 54%, and accusations of front-running would require proof that these banks intentionally manipulated the market—an unlikely scenario given the regulatory risks.The Need for Reform: Strengthening Korea’s Capital MarketsInstead of chasing conspiracy theories, Korea must address the root causes of the problem:Enhancing Analyst Independence: Analysts must be able to issue objective research without corporate or regulatory pressure.Strengthening Domestic Institutional Support: Korea must build a more resilient market structure to absorb external shocks.Ending ‘Buy-Only’ Research Culture: Securities firms must prioritize credibility over client relationships to rebuild investor trust.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Sell

005930

Samsung Electronics

Dow closes down 260 points at session low as megacap tech stocks turn negative(May 18, 2021)

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Dow closes down 260 points at session low as megacap tech stocks turn negative(May 18, 2021)

Major U.S. stock indexes wiped out earlier gains and closed at their session lows on Tuesday as Big Tech stocks reversed lower, while data showing housing starts dropped sharply last month also weighed on sentiment.The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the session 267.13 points, or 0.8%, to 34,060.66. The S&P 500 fell 0.9% to 4,127.83. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite erased a 0.8% gain and slid 0.6% to 13,303.64 as Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet all rolled over and fell more than 1% on the dayHousing starts tumbled 9.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.569 million units last month, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday. Economists polled by Dow Jones had forecast starts falling to a rate of 1.7 million units in April.Investors also digested better-than-expected earnings from big retailers. Walmart shares jumped more than 2% after reporting strong grocery sales and e-commerce growth for the quarter. Macy’s posted a surprise profit and hiked its full-year outlook, but its shares erased earlier gains and dipped 0.4%.Home Depot reported earnings of $3.86 a share for the previous quarter, much higher than the $3.08 expected by analysts polled by Refinitiv. Net sales surged 32.7%, more than expected. The stock ended the session 1% lower.Growth-heavy stocks have remained under pressure in recent sessions as investors fret over whether a pop in inflation will entrench or blow over as the Federal Reserve expects. Inflation above the Fed’s 2% target for a sustained period could prompt the central bank to tighten monetary policy and dampen stocks that outperform the market when interest rates are low.″Growth may be peaking, but it’s not a bull-market breaker yet,” said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments. “Data can’t stay at peak levels forever, and tailwinds from fiscal stimulus are likely to wind down. This can complicate the environment for investors; history suggests that when the economy starts to slow, market returns tend to slow with it.”Investors blamed that angst for the S&P 500′s dismal performance last week, which saw the broad market index fall 4% through midweek amid heightened inflation fears. The broad equity benchmark eventually rebounded and ended the week down 1.4%. All three benchmarks posted their worst week since February 26.The Fed’s minutes from its last meeting, which will be released Wednesday, could offer some clues on policymakers’ thinking on inflation.Elsewhere, the first-quarter earnings season is wrapping up with more than 90% of the S&P 500 companies having reported their results. So far, 86% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise, which would mark the highest percentage of positive earnings surprises since 2008 when FactSet began tracking this metric.

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

It looks like Santa Claus is on his way to stock investors in the week ahead(Dec 26, 2021)

Sell

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

It looks like Santa Claus is on his way to stock investors in the week ahead(Dec 26, 2021)

After a period of turbulence, the decks may be cleared for a good old-fashioned Santa Claus rally in the week ahead.Stocks were higher in the past week, after a rough stretch that continued into Monday. The S&P 500 recovered and is up about 3.5% for December as of Thursday.“I think all the things we’ve been concerned about for the month of December to a certain extent, are in the rearview mirror,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities. “We know what the [Federal Reserve] is going to do. We know while this new variant spreads faster, it’s not as dangerous, and we know Build Back Better legislation is now 2022′s business... I think the market can find a path of least resistance to the upside as we wrap things up.”The market has a lot of history on its side that trading days before the year-end are positive for stocks. According to the “Stock Trader’s Almanac,” the Santa Claus rally period — the final five trading days of the current year and first two of the new year — is mostly a time when the stock market gains. The S&P 500 has been positive nearly 79% of the time on those days since 1928 and has gained an average of about 1.7% per rally.Add to that the fact that when the market has had a strong year, the momentum historically has carried into the final trading sessions. In that regard, the S&P 500 is up about 25% for the year.According to Bank of America, when the S&P 500 has already seen such solid gains, the final six sessions are positive. Since 1980, there have been 10 instances where the S&P 500 was up 20% or more going into the last stretch of trading and in nine of those years, it ended the final six days higher.A notably rocky DecemberStocks head into the final sessions of the year with a tailwind, after several weeks of choppiness.“This has been the fourth rockiest December since 1987. The average daily move for the S&P 500 has been 1.1%,” said Hogan. “That’s a lot of action.” The most volatile Decembers were in 2000, 2008 and 2018.Hogan said volume in the last week of the year is typically 20% to 30% lower than normal. “In a low-volume environment, when the market picks a direction, it tends to move in that direction in a robust fashion,” he said.Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group, said positive news on the Covid omicron variant this week was the catalyst that reversed the market’s sell-off. There were studies showing omicron to be milder than other variants of the coronavirus. Further, the Food and Drug Administration approved pills from Pfizer and Merck for the treatment of Covid-19.“Whereas the market was focusing on everything that could go wrong since Thanksgiving, people are now just taking a sunnier view,” Hickey said. He expects that view will likely prevail in the coming week.“As we get toward the beginning of January, we’ll see how markets are positioning themselves,” Hickey said. He said investors will start to turn their attention toward the upcoming earnings season; they do not seem to be overly optimistic, which could spell some upside surprises.“Going into the last earnings season, there was a ton of negative sentiment based on supply chains, inflation and labor shortages. We ended up having a decent earnings season. It’s more mixed this time,” Hickey said.High-growth stocks hitThe selling in November and December dented stocks. Some high-growth stocks and ETFs were down sharply as investors moved into safety plays. Funds that took their lumps in December include the Ark Innovation ETF and iShares Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF.“I think some of these growth areas that have gotten hit hard will do a little better. They could see a bounce early in the year,” Hickey said. “They sold off for a number of reasons. One was concerns over the Fed. Also people had made so much money, and the feeling was taxes are going up. People were selling stocks ahead of higher taxes. That’s more of a question now with a divided Congress.”

Sell

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

KOSPI unlikely to avoid negative impacts from global stagflation shock: analysts(May 19, 2022)

Sell

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

KOSPI unlikely to avoid negative impacts from global stagflation shock: analysts(May 19, 2022)

As the U.S. stock market saw its biggest daily drop in nearly two years on Wednesday, Korea's main index, the KOSPI, fell below the 2,600-point mark on Thursday, with strong sell-offs from institutional and foreign investors, shedding the two previous sessions' gains.The index ended at 2,592.34, a 1.28-percent decline from the previous session, while the tech-heavy KOSDAQ finished at 863.80, a 0.89-percent fall from Wednesday's closing.Korea's benchmark index started off Thursday's session at 2,576.24 points, a 1.89-percent fall from the previous session. The index recovered slightly during the session, as it climbed up to 2,597.79 at around two in the afternoon, mainly owing to net-buying from retail investors."The KOSPI fell to as low as 2,568.54 during Thursday's session. Yet the index gained some strength in the afternoon, reducing the daily drop, as the U.S. stock futures turned positive during after-hours trading and the markets' preference for safe assets retreated a little, with U.S. treasuries' interest rates rising again," Lee Kyoung-min, a strategist at Daishin Securities, said.Thursday's fall in Seoul is largely attributed to the U.S. stock market's significant decline on Wednesday, which sent the S&P 500 down by 4.04 percent, the Nasdaq by 4.73 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 3.57 percent ― the biggest daily decline since June 2020. Wednesday's strong sell-off of U.S. stocks was triggered by the combined impacts from the shock of American retail businesses' earnings and the market's negative earning guidance over a possible recession, which high inflationary pressure would further impair, reducing corporate profit in the future.With the benchmark index reaching is lowest point since November 2020, market watchers say the country's stock markets are likely to continue to suffer from global recession concerns for the time being."Wednesday's U.S. stock exchanges showed that the consumption level can be curtailed due to inflationary pressure, reflecting the market's concerns over a recession. This could lead to a series of downward corrections of Korean companies' earnings guidance," Seo Sang-young, an analyst at Mirae Asset Securities, pointed out, adding that uncertainties regarding global supply chain disruptions would also stimulate the contraction of investment sentiment.Yet some analysts stressed that the Korean stock exchanges' drops will be limited compared to that of the U.S. exchanges, as the local stocks have already been falling for quite a time, factoring in negative economic elements."Amid the same macro environment of tightening liquidity, Korean stock exchanges seem to fare slightly better than U.S. exchanges, as local stock indices have already factored in an adverse market prediction," Chung Myoung-jin, an analyst at Samsung Securities, said.However, the local stock market cannot avoid the general impact from the global trend, despite the slightly better performance in relative terms."Thursday's session ended with a slightly better performance than the U.S. exchanges. But it's not likely that the local stocks can completely differentiate themselves from the U.S. stock market. The ultimate momentum for a rebound for local stocks will come only when the U.S. Fed's monetary policies and inflationary pressure become stabilized," Park Sang-hyun, a chief economist at HI Investment & Securities, told The Korea Times.Meanwhile, Bitcoin also fell below the $30,000 mark, standing at 29,164.85 as of 3:45 p.m. Korea time at CoinDesk, a 2.56-percent fall from 24 hours ago.

Sell

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

Largest Negative Price Reaction to Positive EPS Surprises Since 2011(May 20, 2022)

Sell

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

Largest Negative Price Reaction to Positive EPS Surprises Since 2011(May 20, 2022)

To date, 95% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings for the first quarter. Of these companies, 77% have reported actual EPS above the mean EPS estimate, which is equal to the five-year average of 77%. In aggregate, earnings have exceeded estimates by 4.7%, which is below the five-year average of 8.9%. Given this performance relative to analyst expectations, how has the market responded to positive and negative EPS surprises reported by S&P 500 companies during the Q1 earnings season?Negative Price Reactions to Positive EPS SurprisesTo date, S&P 500 companies that have reported a positive EPS surprise have seen a negative price reaction on average.Companies that have reported positive earnings surprises for Q1 2022 have seen an average price decrease of 0.5% two days before the earnings release through two days after the earnings release. This percentage decrease is well below the five-year average price increase of 0.8% during this same window for companies reporting positive earnings surprises.In fact, if this is the final percentage for the quarter, it will mark the largest average negative price reaction to positive EPS surprises reported by S&P 500 companies for a quarter since Q2 2011 (-2.1%).One example of a company that reported a positive EPS surprise in Q1 but witnessed a negative stock price reaction is Netflix. On April 19, the company reported actual EPS of $3.53 for Q1, which was well above the mean EPS estimate of $2.90. However, from April 15 to April 21, the stock price for Netflix decreased by 36.0% (to $218.22 from $341.13).Large Negative Price Reactions to Negative EPS SurprisesIn addition, S&P 500 companies that have reported negative EPS surprises have seen a much larger negative price reaction than average.Companies that have reported negative earnings surprises for Q1 2022 have seen an average price decrease of 5.4% two days before the earnings release through two days after the earnings release. This percentage decrease is much larger than the five-year average price decrease of 2.3% during this same window for companies reporting negative earnings surprises.In fact, if this is the final percentage for the quarter, it will mark the largest average negative price reaction to negative EPS surprises reported by S&P 500 companies for a quarter since Q2 2011 (-8.0%).One example of a company that reported a negative EPS surprise in Q1 and saw a substantial negative stock price reaction is Under Armour. On May 6, the company reported actual EPS of -$0.01 for Q1, which was below the mean EPS estimate of $0.04. From May 4 to May 10, the stock price for Under Armour decreased by 33.5% (to $9.59 from $14.42).Possible Explanations for the Overall Negative Price ReactionsWhy is the market not rewarding positive EPS surprises and punishing negative EPS surprises more than average?One factor may be that companies are beating estimates for Q1 2022 by a smaller margin than average compared to recent quarters. The earnings surprise percentage of 4.7% for Q1 is below both the five-year average of 8.9% and the 10-year average of 6.5%. If 4.7% is the final percentage for the quarter, it will mark the lowest earnings surprise percentage reported by the index since Q1 2020 (1.1%). Perhaps the market expected S&P 500 companies to report positive earnings surprises by similar margins as recent quarters.

Sell

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

After dismal 2014, Samsung Elec charts recovery with new Galaxy phones(Apr 3, 2015)

Sell

005930

Samsung Electronics

After dismal 2014, Samsung Elec charts recovery with new Galaxy phones(Apr 3, 2015)

Tech giant Samsung Electronics Co Ltd <005930.KS> likely saw January-March earnings slip for the sixth straight quarter, but investors are betting on a rebound this year on healthy chip sales and high hopes for its new flagship smartphones. Shares in South Korea-based Samsung hit a more-than 21 month high in mid-March as brokerages raised profit forecasts and target prices on its improving business outlook. The stock rose 8.6 percent in January-March following a 12.1 percent gain in the previous period. Investors believe the Galaxy S6 and its curved-edges variant will sell briskly when they roll out this month following positive reviews, and analysts say new mid-tier phones will boost sales, adding to expectations that the earnings slide in its handset business is ending. The recovery is also expected to be backed by strong semiconductor sales. In addition to healthy memory chip demand, Samsung's system chips business is seen returning to profit this year. Its home-grown Exynos processor will power the new Galaxy phones, and Samsung recently added Nvidia Corp as a contract manufacturing client. "This is a year of recovery for Samsung," said fund manager Park Sung-jae at LS Asset Management, which holds Samsung shares. "The stock price reflects that sentiment." To be sure, recovery is expected to be gradual and well shy of record profits in 2013. The median forecast from a Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S survey of 41 analysts tips first-quarter operating profit at 5.3 trillion won ($4.82 billion), down 38 percent from 8.5 trillion won a year earlier as mobile earnings weakened. The company will release its first-quarter earnings guidance on Tuesday. But analysts say the underlying figures should show meaningful improvements, with momentum to pick up further once the Galaxy S6 and S6 edge roll out globally. BNP Paribas analyst Peter Yu expects Samsung to ship 44 million of the new phones this year, compared with an estimated 38 million units of the disappointing Galaxy S5 last year. For the whole year, a Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S survey of 51 analysts expects profits to rise to 26.5 trillion won from 25 trillion won in 2014 - a reversal from the prevailing consensus early this year for another earnings slide. "We believe Samsung's smartphone operations are in a full recovery phase," Yu said in a note to clients last week, adding that there was an earnings upside of up to $1.5 billion to his 2015 profit forecast of 28.1 trillion won because of the new flagship devices. (Editing by Tony Munroe and Stephen Coates)

Sell

005930

Samsung Electronics

Where Are Analysts Most Optimistic on Ratings for S&P 500 Companies for 2020?(Dec 23, 2019)

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Where Are Analysts Most Optimistic on Ratings for S&P 500 Companies for 2020?(Dec 23, 2019)

With the end of the year approaching, where are analysts most optimistic and pessimistic in terms of their ratings on stocks in the S&P 500? How have their views changed over the past few months?Overall, there are 10,362 ratings on stocks in the S&P 500. Of these 10,362 ratings, 50.4% are Buy ratings, 42.5% are Hold ratings, and 7.0% are Sell ratings.At the sector level, analysts are most optimistic on the Energy (66%), Health Care (59%), and Communication Services (59%) sectors, as these three sectors have highest percentages of Buy ratings.On the other hand, analysts are most pessimistic about the Consumer Staples (39%), Utilities (42%), Financials (42%), and Real Estate (43%) sectors, as these sectors have the lowest percentages of Buy ratings. The Real Estate sector also has the highest percentage of Hold ratings (51%), while the Consumer Staples (12%) and Utilities (11%) sectors also have the highest percentages of Sell ratings.Since September 30, the total number of ratings on S&P 500 companies has increased by 1.0% (to 10,362 from 10,258). The number of Buy ratings has decreased by 1.8% (to 5,227 from 5,324). Three sectors have witnessed an increase in Buy ratings, led by the Information Technology (+4%) sector. Eight sectors have seen a decrease in Buy ratings, led by the Financials (-9%) sector. The number of Hold ratings has increased by 3.2% (to 4,408 from 4,272). Eight sectors have recorded an increase in Hold ratings, led by the Consumer Discretionary (+10%) and Industrials (+9%) sectors. Three sectors have witnessed a decrease in Hold ratings, led by the Energy (-4%) sector. The number of Sell ratings has increased by 9.8% (to 727 from 662). Eight sectors have a recorded an increase in Sell ratings, led by the Communication Services (+42%) and Materials (+33%) sectors. Three sectors have seen a decrease in Sell ratings, led by the Energy (-4%) sector.

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Dax and CAC indexes break new ground before retreating(Dec 14, 1999)

Strong Sell

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

Dax and CAC indexes break new ground before retreating(Dec 14, 1999)

German stocks grabbed the spotlight in Europe Tuesday, powering the benchmark index to a lifetime high in early trade before trimming its gains in the afternoon. A mixed opening on Wall Street had little impact on late European trading. Frankfurt far outstripped lackluster performances from its continental neighbors, with an increase on the Xetra Dax of 1.5 percent, or 94 points, to 6,221.28. The index had peaked at 6,235.22 earlier in the session. London's FTSE 100 scraped into the black, rising just 7 points at 6,710.7. In Paris the CAC 40 gained 25 points to 5,561.49, having earlier set a new record of 5,587.67, while in Zurich the SMI was up 18 points at 7,310.8. The FTSE Eurotop 300, a broader measure of European stocks, gained 0.7 percent, led by transport and electrical stocks. Evidence of tame inflation in the United States in Tuesday�s report on November consumer prices failed to excite European investors. In Frankfurt, electrical giant Siemens (FSIE) drove the Dax higher after it reported improved prospects for chip pricing. The company plans to spin off its semiconductors unit Infineon. Siemens rose 4 percent to 117.35 euros. Other tech stocks rose in sympathy, with French microchip maker STMicroelectronics (PSGS) gaining 4 percent in Paris. Also on the move in Germany were telecom stocks Deutsche Telekom (FDTE), up almost 3 percent, and Mannesmann (FMMN), which rose 2.5 percent. In London the transport and financial sectors caught the eye in an otherwise dull session. Hopes that a much-publicized government plan to revamp the U.K.'s transport system would have little impact on private rail firms� profits brought relief to rail infrastructure operator Railtrack (RTK). Dealers speculated the train regulator's review later this week will not be too onerous for the company's earnings. The stock soared 10 percent, and was pursued higher by shipping and logistics firm P&O (PO-) and British Airways (BAY). National Westminster (NWB), the subject of competing bids from Bank of Scotland (BSCT) and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBOS), rose 3 percent, while the rival bidders were both some 2 percent higher. Speculation about a bid in the retail sector kept supermarket and other retail stocks moving up, with possible target J. Sainsbury (SBRY) jumping 7 percent and fellow struggler Marks & Spencer (MKS) gaining 2 percent. In Paris, pay-TV operator Canal Plus's (PAN) recent sharp gains came to an end. After rising more than a third in the past week the shares slid� 4 percent Tuesday. Going in the opposite direction was hypermarket retailer Carrefour (PCA), which benefited from the positive sentiment among retail stocks across the Channel. In Zurich the focus was on Ciba Specialty Chemicals, which sold a polymers division to a unit of Deutsche Bank (FDBK) for $1.2 billion, sending Ciba stock up 1 percent. Investors were unimpressed by news that UBS plans to increase its share buyback program, and the bank's stock dropped nearly 5 percent

Strong Sell

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

Panicked Chinese mistakenly hoarding iodized salt(March 18, 2011)

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Panicked Chinese mistakenly hoarding iodized salt(March 18, 2011)

China's economic agency told shoppers Thursday to stop panic buying salt, blaming baseless rumors that the iodine in it can stop radiation sickness.The Chinese government has repeatedly said the country's residents will not be exposed to radiation from a nuclear plant in northeastern Japan which engineers are frantically trying to bring under control after it was damaged by last Friday's earthquake and tsunami.But in a sign of increasing public worries about the risks, people across much of China have been buying large amounts of iodized salt, emptying markets of the usually cheap and plentiful product.The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country's economic policy agency, said price regulators could investigate and punish price gouging.Disaster sparks demand for potassium iodide"In recent days, some areas have been affected by rumors that have sparked intensive buying of salt, and some lawless merchants have leapt at the opportunity to raise prices," said the NDRC in an emailed statement."Don't believe rumors, don't spread rumors, and don't panic buy," said the notice.The spike in demand may be born of a misunderstanding of reports noting that the thyroid gland is susceptible to radioactive iodine — just one of several types of radiation that could be produced by the crippled reactors — and that potassium iodide tablets can block the radioactive iodine if taken before exposure. In the U.S., demand for potassium iodide has swamped manufacturers or suppliers approved by the federal Food and Drug Administration.Salt containing iodine, however, would not shield against the radiation, medical experts said in newspaper reports on Thursday, adding there was no reason for alarm in China, which is thousands of kilometers away from the reactors.Still, some Chinese residents formed long lines to buy salt, and the state distribution company has vowed to speed up supply.At a Hua Pu Supermarket in Beijing, shoppers bought salt faster than the staff could stock shelves with it.One woman carrying a package of salt was stopped and asked by others where she got it."This bag of salt was given to me by my friend who bought it this morning," said the woman, who declined to give her name. "I heard they queued for a long time, and each person was only allowed to buy five bags."

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Is Apple Stock (Nasdaq: AAPL) the Short of a Lifetime or the New Widow Maker?(March 27, 2012)

Sell

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

Is Apple Stock (Nasdaq: AAPL) the Short of a Lifetime or the New Widow Maker?(March 27, 2012)

I have a confession to make.I believe Apple stock (Nasdaq: AAPL) is going to be world's first trillion-dollar company yet I want to short the snot out of it.Am I being compulsive?...impulsive?....or foolish?Perhaps it is all three considering that Apple has risen more than 3,000% in the last ten years, turning almost any attempt to go against the grain into a "widow maker" trade.Trump boom awakens “silent” $2 stock [Sponsored by Timothy Sykes]I say almost because I am one of the lucky ones.A few weeks ago I recommended my Strike Force subscribers purchase put options on Apple, effectively shorting the stock. That resulted in a 47% profit in less than 24 hours for anyone who followed along, excluding fees and commissions.I'm not alone in my thinking.Why Buffett, Bezos, & Congress Are Piling Into This One Sector [Sponsored by Investorplace]Uber investor Doug Kass, general partner of Seabreeze Partners Long/Short LP and Seabreeze Partners Long/Short Offshore LP, tweeted recently that he had covered "half his short" on Apple following the announcement of their dividend and buyback plan.Given that the stock had run up to nearly $608 a share before the announcement, presumably Kass had banked some gains, too.7 Reasons to Short Apple Stock(Nasdaq: AAPL)I haven't spoken with Mr. Kass so I can't comment on his current thinking nor the specifics of his trade, but here are mine:The company has single-handedly repeated the bubble curve of the Nasdaq run up. That leaves a lot of empty space to the downside.Apple is a "fad" or a "hit" company, meaning that its price seems to correlate to new product launches rather than the sustainable development of key product lines. Companies that do that tend to fall back from orbit at some point - especially in the tech world. Palm and Research in Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM) are two that come to mind.When great leaders are gone, their legacies can struggle. While Apple has stood up so far following Steve Jobs' unfortunate death, I can only wonder, as many in the tech community are wondering, how deep and how far out his thinking will live on. Is it one product cycle, two cycles? Nobody knows. But we do know that Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) became a very different company after Bill Gates stepped aside. Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) also flatlined three or four cycles after Andy Grove's departure from day-to-day operations.Apple's short interest of only 9.8 million shares is very low considering the company's three-month average daily trading volume is 18.2 million shares and the company's float is 931.8 million shares.The analyst community is almost completely positive. That's usually a sign of two things: a) that they're soft peddling opposing trades from other parts of the "shops" they work for or b) that they want a run up to maximize profits from positions they already hold. Either way, many have been tremendously wrong in their sales projections in recent quarters, understating anticipated results by as much as 30%-40% - a factor also noted by Kass in his trade set up analysis. Therefore, I am skeptical that they are raising numbers again.Apple's profit margins are unbelievably high at a time when the rest of the economy lurches along. While that's not a bad thing in isolation, I have a hard time believing that Apple can remain so far out of line if for no other reason that what goes up must come down eventually. And, since the road higher is far more unlikely for the rest of the markets, it is logical that Apple likely heads lower in the short term.Apple's fundamentals may soften. There are lots of reasons to love Apple but there are just as many reasons things may not be what they seem. If the economy worsens just how many people are going to buy "gee-whiz" technology beyond the hard core Apple-heads? Is there an Apple-killer in somebody's garage right now? Anti-trust investigations and supply problems are also big what ifs at the moment. Even a carrier failure could rock Apple because it may be their subsidies that keep Apple's costs down and profits high.Add it all up and there is enough to make you go hmmm...Of course, there is no doubt I will incur the wrath of Apple fans everywhere and arm chair traders from here to Tibet.Trump’s Shocking Exec Order 001 [Sponsored by Bayan Hill]Get over it guys; please refrain from the snarky e-mails telling me I'm an idiot or out of touch or worse - I believe in Apple. I really do.What I am suggesting is simply the logic behind Apple as a trading opportunity for nimble, aggressive and like minded market mavens.Besides, if I am correct and Apple does trade lower in the weeks ahead, I'm going to be picking up shares as an investment.

Sell

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

So what can we learn from the Crash of 1929 to avoid a 21st Century Great Depression?(17 September 2008)

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

So what can we learn from the Crash of 1929 to avoid a 21st Century Great Depression?(17 September 2008)

By the end of September 1929, the American stock market on New York’s Wall Street was riding the wave of a decade of intoxicating growth.The Roaring Twenties — that era of the Jazz Age, bootleggers and gangsters like Al Capone — had seen millions of ordinary Americans caught up in the excitement of owning shares, and making money.The Dow Jones Industrial Average of leading shares had grown five-fold in the previous five years.As the social historian Cecil Roberts was to put it later: ‘Everyone was playing the market. Stocks soared dizzily.'I found it hard not to be engulfed. I had invested my American earnings in good stocks.'Should I sell for a profit? Everyone said, “Hang on — it’s a rising market.”’On the last day of a visit to New York that September, Roberts went to have his hair cut.As the barber swept the clean white sheet from his shoulders and bent to brush his collar, he said softly: ‘Buy Standard Gas. I’ve doubled. It’s good for another double.’Stunned, Roberts walked upstairs and said to himself: ‘If the hysteria has reached the barber-level, something must soon happen.’ It did.On October 3, the day after Britain’s widely respected Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Snowden, had warned that the Americans had got themselves into a ‘speculative orgy’ on Wall Street, the New York stock market started to fall.Today, almost 80 years later, history seems to be on the verge of repeating itself — with the Dow Jones index of leading shares on Wall Street falling, followed by major stock markets around the world.Back in 1929, as October continued, so the fall in the value of stocks and shares steepened.On Monday, October 21, six million shares swapped hands, the largest number in the history of the exchange.But then, on the morning of Thursday, October 24, 1929, it went into freefall. When the New York Stock Exchange opened there were no buyers, only sellers.The Great Crash had begun. On the floor of the Exchange, there was pandemonium.Watched by none other than Winston Churchill, who was in the United States on a speaking tour and had come to see how his American investments were faring, there was ‘bedlam’ with ‘the jobbers (trying to buy or sell stocks and shares) caught in the middle’.As Selwyn Parker, author of a new book on the Crash puts it: ‘In vain attempts to be heard above the din, they were screaming orders to sell; when that did not work, they hurled their chits at the chalk girls.'Others, transfixed by the plummeting share prices, simply stood where they were in an almost catatonic state.‘What Churchill was watching,’ Parker goes on to say ‘was the collapse of the collective nerve of American shareholders.’On the street, the crowds of onlookers grew ever bigger as rumours of the falls swept New York — with thousands upon thousands of ordinary Americans fearful that they were about to lose everything.By midday police riot squads had to be called to disperse what The New York Times itself called ‘the hysterical crowds’, but they had little or no effect. Rumours spread everywhere — one was that 11 speculators had killed themselves that very morning, though it was not true.One poor workman on the roof of an office building nearby found himself watched by the crowds below — all convinced that he was about to throw himself to the street below.He didn’t, but the legend that one banker did throw himself to his death was to become one of the abiding myths of what became known as ‘Black Thursday’.Almost 13 million shares changed hands on the NYSE that day, the most that had ever done so, and yet the worst of the falls in value were recouped that same afternoon — in the wake of a rescue attempt by leading bankers who had held an emergency meeting at the offices of JP Morgan.Yet the rally didn’t last. By Monday, October 28, the sellers were back, and on Tuesday October 29, the Great Crash finally came to a dreadful conclusion in what The New York Times described as ‘the most disastrous day’ in the American stock market’s history.On that day — ‘Black Tuesday’ — losses approached £4.5 billion ( equivalent to £800 billion today), and more than 16.4million shares changed hands.No matter what the bankers, or wealthy investors like John D. Rockefeller, tried to do to stem the tide of sellers, their efforts were pointless. They were swept aside, as huge blocks of shares were sold, and confidence drained out of the market.Groups of men — ‘with here and there a woman’ in the words of one observer — stood beside the new ‘ticker-tape’ machines, which monitored the price of stocks and shares, watching as their fortunes vanished in front of their eyes.One reporter noted: ‘The crowds about the ticker-tape, like friends around the bedside of a stricken friend, reflected in their faces the story the tape was telling.There were no smiles. There were no tears either. Just the cameraderie of fellow sufferers.’ The comedian Eddie Cantor lost everything, but kept his sense of humour.‘Well, folks,’ he told his radio audience that evening, ‘they got me in the market, just like they got everybody else.'In fact, they’re not calling it the stock market any longer. They’re calling it the stuck market.'Everyone’s stuck. Well, except my uncle. He got a good break. He died in September.’Groucho Marx, star of Duck Soup and Animal Crackers, lost £400,000, while heavyweight boxer Jack Dempsey, one of the first multi-millionaire sportsmen, lost £1.5million.Even the man who was later accused of triggering the stock market boom, economist Professor Irving Fisher, lost everything.Just four months earlier, Fisher had told the readers of an article entitled Everybody Ought To Be Rich: ‘If a man saves £7.50 a week, and invests in good common stocks, and allows the dividends and rights to accumulate, at the end of 20 years he will have at least £40,000 and an income from investments of around £200 a month. He will be rich.‘And because income can do that, I am firm in my belief that anyone not only can be rich, but ought to be rich.’Small wonder that the most popular song of 1929 was Irving Berlin’s Blue Skies — with its unforgettable lines: ‘Blue skies smiling at me/Nothing but blue skies, do I see.’Millions of Americans had taken Fisher’s advice, often borrowing the money to do so. And, in another parallel with today’s financial crisis, ordinary people were encouraged to take exceptional risks — risks they did not appreciate, and which they would come to regret.Some had their doubts, but not many. One investor later recalled: I knew something was terribly wrong because I heard bellboys, everybody, talking about the stock market.’But, just like today, many of them were gulled by the slick salesmen of the investment houses and banks.As Parker explains: ‘In the five-year run up to the Crash, gullible investors borrowed wildly to get into the market, and many were systematically duped by Wall Street and the stock market fraternity at large.’After the Crash, one expert in the Department of Commerce estimated that almost half the £25 billion of stocks and shares sold in the United States during the Roaring Twenties was ‘undesirable or worthless’.But the other half clearly reflected the growing American economy — with shares in General Electric, for example, tripling in value in the 18 months before the Crash; while a £5,000 investment in General Motors in 1920 would have produced an astonishing £750,000 by 1929.By the end of 1928 most investors had come to expect incredible gains, and the presidential election campaign that November did nothing to quell the fever.Indeed, the Republican candidate Herbert Hoover, who’d been commerce secretary throughout the 1920s, took to the hustings to announce: ‘We shall soon, with the help of God, be in sight of the day when poverty will be banished from this nation.’It was to take a generation — and a World War — to see any semblance of prosperity return.The Great Crash of 1929 plunged America, and the rest of the world, into an economic depression that was to last for the next decade.As one commentator memorably explained afterwards: ‘Anyone who bought stocks in mid 1929 and held onto them saw most of his or her adult life pass by before getting back to even.’So why did the Crash — which had been precipitated by government increases in interest rates to cool off the stock market boom — turn into a depression?Simply because of the uncertainty the Crash fuelled.No one knew what consequences of the Crash were going to be — so everyone decided to stop trading until things settled down.Banks stopped lending money. Consumers stopped buying durable goods from shops.The stores, in turn, stopped buying from the manufacturers.Firms, therefore, cut back on production and laid off workers. And all of this fed on itself to make the depression still worse.In the following ten years 13 million Americans lost their jobs, with 12,000 losing their jobs every single working day.Some 20,000 companies went bankrupt, including 1,616 banks, and one in every 20 farmers was evicted from his land.In 1932, the worst year of the Great Depression which continued until the beginning of the war, an astounding 23,000 Americans committed suicide in a single year.And the pain was not restricted to the U.S.Weimar Germany, which had built its foundations in the aftermath of World War I with the help of American loans, found itself struggling with ever mounting debts.This, in turn, helped to usher in the brownshirts of Adolf Hitler’s National Socialist party.The impact on American self-confidence was devastating.As the Broadway lyricist Yip Harburg, who lived through those times, explained almost 40 years later: ‘We thought American business was the Rock of Gibraltar.'We were the prosperous nation, and nothing could stop us now. There was a feeling of continuity. If you made it, it was there for ever. Suddenly the big dream exploded’.Another writer, who lived through those days, M. A. Hamilton, said the Great Crash of 1929 shattered the dreams of millions of Americans —and that the average working man ‘found his daily facts reeling and swimming about him, in a nightmare of continuous disappointment’.‘The bottom had fallen out of the market, for good,’ wrote Hamilton. ‘And that market had a horrid connection with his bread and butter, his automobile, and his instalment purchases.'Worst of all, unemployment became a hideous fact and one that lacerated and tore at self-respect.’Suddenly, there were lines of men and women queuing up for free soup from the soup kitchens established by the Salvation Army, or provided by the wealthy men who had not been hurt financially, like the millionaire publisher William Randolph Hearst.And everywhere Americans were struggling to eke out a living.Once-successful businessmen were condemned to selling apples on street corners in New York, and, if they couldn’t afford apples, they offered to shine shoes.By the summer of 1932, according to the police, there were about 7,000 of these ‘shine boys’ making a living on New York’s streets.Just three years before they were almost non-existent and most were boys under 17.The New York Times reported ‘an army of new salesmen, peddling everything from large rubber balls to cheap neckties’, while unemployment also brought back the ‘newsboy’ (often men in their 40s) in increasing numbers.‘He avoids the busy corners, where news-stands are frequent,’ the paper explained. ‘And hawks his papers in the side streets with surprising success.'His best client is the man who is too tired to walk down to the corner for a paper’.The Great Depression was an economic apocalypse that no one could possibly wish to see happen again. But could it?There are worrying parallels. The American economist J. K. Galbraith blamed the Great Depression that followed the Crash on credit growth, as did his British counterpart, Lionel Robbins.And few doubt that it is the credit crunch — as well as the greed among bankers who took unacceptable risks with their clients’ money — that lies at the heart of the present falls in stock markets around the world.Certainly, Selwyn Parker believes this. In the past decade, he writes, ‘ somehow the banks managed to slip the regulators’ leash, distributing credit around the world like so much chaff. Casinos were better regulated than the banking industry.’The result of this credit binge, he adds, is the record levels of personal debt that we are seeing now, which leads, when things start to go wrong, ‘to general belt-tightening, fast-slowing growth and banks hoarding capital — the conditions we have right now’.‘The financial system and people’s material wealth today,’ Parker warns darkly, are much more vulnerable than anybody thought.’As stock markets fall around the world, we can only pray we are not on the brink of another economic apocalypse.But history suggests that the omens are far from good.

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

PetroChina worth $1 trillion ... briefly(Nov. 5, 2007)

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

PetroChina worth $1 trillion ... briefly(Nov. 5, 2007)

What the Shanghai stock exchange giveth, Wall Street taketh away.Hours after PetroChina shares almost tripled in value on their first day of trading in Shanghai, they slumped 11 percent in New York after a big investment bank said the stock was overvalued.China’s biggest oil and gas company — the publicly listed unit of state-owned China National Petroleum Corp. — became the world’s first company with a $1 trillion market capitalization after its shares debuted Monday in its homeland.The 4 billion new shares surged to 43.96 yuan ($5.90), nearly triple the IPO price of 16.70 yuan ($2.24). The initial public offering raised 66.8 billion yuan ($8.94 billion) — a record for a mainland exchange.The Shanghai shares are meant for domestic investors and are generally off-limits to would-be foreign buyers. Chinese investors likewise have limited access to overseas-traded shares, crimping the leeway for arbitrage between the markets.The buying frenzy in China, though, didn’t translate to Wall Street.PetroChina’s U.S. shares were off sharply Monday, falling $28.56, or 11.2 percent, to $226.50 in afternoon trading.In a research note, Bear Stearns downgraded the shares to underperform, noting they were trading at a 51 percent premium to the investment bank’s new year-end 2008 fair value and target price.“PetroChina shares have risen 45.6 percent over the past month alone,” Bear Stearns said. “Time to take profit.”Adding the value of PetroChina shares traded in Shanghai, Hong Kong and New York, and the 157.9 billion shares held by CNPC, the company’s total market capitalization rose to just over $1 trillion, far surpassing No. 2 Exxon Mobil Corp.’s $488 billion.However, Bear Stearns noted, based on Wall Street consensus forecasts, PetroChina was trading at a 72 percent premium to Exxon Mobil based on a 2008 price-to-earnings valuation. “From an operational perspective, we see little reason for this disparity,” the investment bank said.Indeed, when measured by earnings, Exxon remains a much larger company. Its $9.41 billion in third-quarter net profit, while down 10 percent from a year earlier, nearly matched PetroChina’s net profit of 81.8 billion yuan ($10.8 billion) for the entire first half of the year.Exxon’s oil and gas reserves — a gauge of future profit potential — stood at 22.7 billion barrels by the end of 2006, compared with PetroChina’s 20.5 billion barrels.The Chinese company has seen revenue soar amid surging oil prices but has struggled to boost production from its aging domestic oil fields. Like rival Sinopec, it’s been squeezed by a widening gap between soaring world crude oil prices and state-controlled prices for oil products in the domestic market.But PetroChina’s strong showing was expected all the same. Chinese investors have shown a huge appetite for elite government giants that are seen as proxies for the country’s economic boom.

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

No Bounds Seen for Investor Frenzy for Funds(2007-10-30)

Strong Sell

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

No Bounds Seen for Investor Frenzy for Funds(2007-10-30)

A paradigm shift is taking place in wealth management as people are pulling money out of bank savings accounts to invest in equity and other types of funds. The asset management industry is set to thrive on the ever-growing demand for these funds.According to a survey of 928 salaried workers by Open Salary, an online salary information provider, the number of those accumulating assets by putting money in savings accounts dropped by 5.2 percentage points from a year ago, while those investing in funds grew by 5.4 percentage points.If the typical Korean middle class used to accumulate money in bank deposits and bought real estate with the money to make their fortune, now the answer is investment in a variety of funds. In the 1980s and 1990s, when interest rates hovered at above 10 percent, one was guaranteed an investment return higher than inflation with safe assets such as bank deposits. Now, however, with the annual interest rate at a mere 4 to 5 percent, the investment return is a de facto minus if one depends solely on savings.While the interest rate for savings accounts is disappointing, some funds have recorded amazing returns during the last few years. Leading the latest boom in fund investment are China funds. Those who put money in China funds at the beginning of this year have reaped over 70 percent in returns so far.Those who have not subscribed to funds yet, regret that they haven't. They envy the high returns the others boast of, but they are also hesitant about subscribing to the funds now. They hesitate over questions like ``Isn't it too late?'' ``What if the stock market collapses?'' And ``Doesn't it seem too complicated?''Various equity funds have produced impressive gains that are far higher than those of savings accounts. Will these funds continue to be a goose laying golden eggs? One thing that is clear is that performances will not be even.On the road toward higher returns, a lot of risks are strewn. Those who are not well aware of, or prepared for those risks might be burned, licking their wounds from investment losses. Here are some useful tips for investment in funds in this era of so-called ``fund capitalism.''Know ThyselfThere are hundreds of fund products prepared when one visits banks or securities firms to start investing. Not a few beginners choose funds by simply seeing a friend enjoying high investment returns, or at the recommendation of banks or securities companies. It isn't that simple. The choice one makes over the short term determines investment returns for years to come.``Investors should think about how much risk they are willing to take, for how long,'' said Hur Jin-young, a fund analyst at Zeroin. She stressed that one should consider risk management first in fund investment.Banks and securities companies offer a number of questions to see how risk-averse a person is. Generally, younger people take more risks. Without spouses or children to support, young people can take a more aggressive strategy. They can take high risks to get higher returns. They have time and strength to start again even if the investment ends in a loss. A high risk, high investment tool would be torture to people with low risk-adaptability as they would be having sleepless nights at the slightest fluctuation in the market.People should also schedule when the money will be needed. If someone plans to get married within a year, for example, putting all their money in funds isn't a good choice as cash will be needed. Fund investment should be a long-term investment.DiversificationOnce one has determined how risk-friendly a person is, there comes portfolio designing. The keyword is diversification: No matter when, don't put all your eggs in one basket. Diversification means less volatility. A part of the money should be kept in stable assets such as savings and bonds, and the rest could seek higher investment returns through equity type funds. The ratio depends on each person.Even within an equity fund, one should diversify region. Analysts advise that investors had better avoid putting over 30 percent of assets in one region, no matter how rosy the outlook is there. The fund portfolio should be diversified to include ones investing in the Seoul bourse, others investing in advanced markets such as the United States, Japan or Europe, and emerging market funds plus those investing in alternatives such as natural resources and crops.The recent recommendation on BRICs funds instead of China only funds shows how diversification matters. China funds have brought joy for many investors, and have been absorbing capital. The high price earnings ratio (PER), however, makes investors fear that it might be overvalued. Some refute this saying that it isn't too high when considering the growth Chinese businesses will achieve in a few years, but investors were uneasy when the Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.8 percent last Thursday, upon the possibility of an interest rate hike on inflation concerns.Analysts say BRICs funds, investing in Brazil, Russia, India and China, can be an alternative to China funds. These funds bet on the high growth potential of emerging markets, including China, while not putting all of their eggs in the China basket. The other three countries' stock markets haven't rallied as much as China recently, but abundant natural resources in Brazil and Russia make their economies go their own way.According to Shinhan BNP Paribas Investment Trust Management, stock markets of advanced countries have an average 0.75 correlation coefficient among themselves. The coefficient among BRICs countries, meanwhile, stands at between 0.2 and 0.5. This means European stock markets are likely to collapse when the U.S. market plunges. Diversifying a portfolio into Europe and the United States only would not help much. By investing in countries that are not much correlated between themselves, meanwhile, one can make up for losses from other solid markets even if one of them goes bad.Long-term InvestmentAnother way to diversify investment is to pay money in installments. Investors don't have to worry about short-term fluctuations if they make investments in installments, over a long period of time. If the market is bullish at the time they put the money in the fund, it lowers the average cost of the investment. Installment investments do not guarantee better returns than a lump-sum investment, but they are safer.Analysts also stress that fund investment should be made over the long-term. Expecting too much in returns, pouring money into a certain fund for a short period of time is not investment but rather speculation and gambling.There are good days and bad days on the market. In the long run, however, the market has been growing. Once the investor makes a decision after thoroughly checking the value and growth potential of a certain fund product, they shouldn't fret about short-term ups and downs. They will gain in the long run if market fundamentals are good. Switching funds too often also results in waste through commissions.VigilanceLong-term investment doesn't mean one shouldn't oversee what is going on with the funds. One should check returns from time to time and gather a comprehensive outlook on the market. The Korean stock market, which had a rally like the Chinese bourse, had a nosedive after the Seoul Olympics in 1988. It lost momentum for a decade after then. Adhering to the Japanese market during the country's lost decade would not be a smart long-term investment. One should know the direction of a graph though short-term fluctuation doesn't matter. One could consider withdrawing part of the money when reaching an investment returns target to also minimize risk.Most funds also send investors reports regularly, which is a good source of information for investors to make decisions. A number of Websites, including www.amak.or.kr, www.funddoctor.co.kr, or www.fundzone.co.kr, provide information on funds.The shift to funds brought a big change to Korean investors. One should keep in mind that funds investment can incur a loss and that the over 100 percent returns of China funds aren't likely to repeat. Funds investment, however, saves time and effort for the investor than direct stock investment, and helps them gain knowledge on the global macro economy.

Strong Sell

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

Dow soars into history(March 16, 2000)

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Dow soars into history(March 16, 2000)

NEW YORK (CNNfn) - The Dow Jones industrial average rose a record 499.19 points Thursday, lifted as money poured into "old economy" stocks out-of-favor for much of the year. The blue-chip euphoria lifted the world's best-known index out of the hole that Wall Street considers a correction, handing the New York Stock Exchange its busiest trading day on record. Investors made heroes out of stocks such as American Express, J.P. Morgan and Minnesota Mining & Manufacturing - all down by double digits in the last three months. The gains came after a batch of tame inflation figures eased Wall Street's worst fears about sharply higher interest rates to come, boosting expectations for strong corporate profits ahead. "The rumors of the Dow's death has been much exaggerated," Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co., told CNN's Street Sweep. Less than two weeks ago a surprise profit warning from Procter & Gamble knocked 375 points off the Dow. That seemed a distant memory Thursday, with the blue chip frenzy lifting 29 of the Dow's 30 stocks and spreading to the Nasdaq composite index, which broke a three-session losing streak. Only Dow member Microsoft, the world's most valuable company, failed to rise. "It's phenomenal," said Charles Payne, head analyst at Wall Street Strategies. "We're breaking all sorts of technical resistance levels like a hot knife through butter." But Goldman Sachs' Abby Joseph Cohen told CNNfn on Moneyline that investors should not look at this phenomenal rise as a trend for the year. (235K WAV or 235K AIFF) The Dow soared 499.19 points, or more than 4.9 percent, to 10,630.60. The gain shattered the previous record, a 380.53-point rise set Sept. 8, 1998. With the day's action, the index is now about 9.3 percent below its all-time high of 11,722 set Jan. 14, pushing it below the 10 percent dip Wall Street deems a correction. Lifted by data The Dow's rise began with the start of trading, when a tame rise in producer price data failed to confirm analysts' worst fears about climbing inflation. Analysts said the news suggests only modest interest rate hikes lie ahead. "I don't see (the economy) overheating," Wall Street Strategies' Payne said. "We've got strong growth and controlled growth. "There still isn't any clear-cut sign of inflation." The Nasdaq, meanwhile, reversed a 127-point loss earlier in the session, rising 134.66, or 2.9 percent, to 4,717.76. That broke three-sessions of double-digit losses.Charles Lemonides, chief investment officer at M&R capital, told CNNfn that the day's action could be the beginning of a broad market advance, countering the narrow gains seen only by the Nasdaq. The day's action supported that. The broader S&P 500 catapulted 64.66, or 4.7 percent, to 1,456.63. And more stocks rose than fell. Advancers on the New York Stock Exchange swamped decliners 2,414 to 410 as trading volume topped 1.48 billion shares, a record. Nasdaq winners beat losers 2,259 to 2,004 with more than 2 billion shares changing hands. In other markets, the dollar fell against the euro and was little changed versus the yen. Treasury securities rose. Dow flexes muscles The Dow's jump of more than 800 points in the last two sessions comes as investors fish for some of the cheapest of blue-chip stocks. Among the big drivers, American Express (AXP: Research, Estimates) rocketed 10-7/8 to 143-3/4, J.P. Morgan (JPM: Research, Estimates) surged 7-1/8 to 124-5/8 and Minnesota Mining & Manufacturing (MMM: Research, Estimates) catapulted 5-9/16 to 88-1/16. "A lot of these stocks were much higher a year ago than they are today," Ned Riley, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors, told CNN's In the Money. "Clearly, the bottom-fishing issue is important and real." Still, Paul Rabbitt, president of Rabbitt Analytics, told CNNfn's Talking Stocks he sees the Nasdaq resuming its lead as investors chase the highest growth tech companies. (408K WAV) (408K AIFF). Even after the day's action, the Dow is still down 7.5 percent this year while the Nasdaq is up 15.9 percent in 2000. But on Thursday, Nasdaq leaders surged alongside old economy stalwarts. Oracle (ORCL: Research, Estimates) jumped 3-5/8 to 81-15/16, Intel (INTC: Research, Estimates) rose 4-7/8 to 125-1/16, and JDS Uniphase (JDSU: Research, Estimates) rocketed 10-11/16 to 129-7/16. But Microsoft (MSFT: Research, Estimates), failed to rise, ending unchanged at 95-3/8. Inflation-friendly data Blue-chip stocks found support after the latest batch of economic indicators suggested inflation remains tame enough to keep the Federal Reserve from aggressively tightening credit, boosting expectations for strong corporate profits. While producer prices posted their biggest monthly jump in more than nine years in February, the core rate, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, advanced at a more moderate pace of rose 0.3 percent. "Inflation appears to be muted," said Alan Ackerman, senior vice president at Fahnestock & Co. Separately, the Commerce Department reported that housing starts rose 1.3 percent to a 1.78 million-unit rate in February, suggesting the housing market remains strong, undeterred by the Fed's four rate hikes since June. Finally, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to 262,000 for the week ended March 11, the Labor Department said.

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Global Markets React to the Japanese Yen Carry Trade Unwind(August 12, 2024)

Sell

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

Global Markets React to the Japanese Yen Carry Trade Unwind(August 12, 2024)

Last Monday, global equities and digital assets underwent a dramatic selloff as the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade rattled markets. The S&P Global Broad Market Index (BMI), which measures the performance of more than 14,000 stocks around the world, retreated 3.3%, its worst trading day in over two years. The Tokyo Stock Price Index, or TOPIX, fell 20% in its biggest three-day wipeout ever. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index tumbled as much as 17.5%.As an investor who’s weathered numerous market storms over the decades, I believe it’s important to understand the underlying causes of these movements and the lessons they hold for us.Carry trades, for those less familiar, involve borrowing in a low-interest-rate currency—like the Japanese yen or Swiss franc—and investing the proceeds in higher-yielding assets elsewhere. This strategy has been immensely profitable, given the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) longstanding zero-rate policy.However, the recent rate hike by the BOJ has thrown a wrench into these trades, leading to a rapid appreciation of the yen against the U.S. dollar. As many of you are aware, a strong local currency can put pressure on that country’s stock market because exported goods become less competitive.The yen’s appreciation mirrored past episodes, such as the 1998 Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) hedge fund collapse and the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis, where the yen appreciated 20% from its low. As of early August, the yen had already appreciated over 10% against the U.S. dollar.Following the selloff, the BOJ walked back its hawkish stance, with Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida pledging to refrain from further rate hikes amid market instability. This should provide some relief in the near term, but the broader implications of the yen’s rebound and the carry trade unwind will likely continue to influence markets.Given these developments, I urge caution. History suggests that the unwinding is not yet complete. In a report dated August 9, JPMorgan says it believes the unwind is about halfway done. What’s more, financial markets are pricing in multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, which could further exacerbate the carry trade unwind. In such a scenario, it’s prudent to remain cautious about “buying the dip.”

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226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

LG Energy Solution debuts after $13 trillion frenzy in Korea's biggest IPO(2022-01-27)

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373220

LG Energy Solution

LG Energy Solution debuts after $13 trillion frenzy in Korea's biggest IPO(2022-01-27)

Shares of battery maker LG Energy Solution (LGES) debuted Thursday after South Korea's biggest-ever initial public offering (IPO) attracted bids worth $13 trillion, underscoring upbeat prospects for the electric vehicle industry.LGES priced its 12.8 trillion won ($10.7 billion) IPO at the top of the range, becoming Korea's third most-valuable company after Samsung Electronics and SK hynix with a nearly $60 billion market valuation.Spun out of LG Chem, the company commands more than 20% of the global EV battery market and supplies Tesla, General Motors and Volkswagen among others.It sold its shares in the offering at 300,000 won each.Its trading debut will set the tone for upcoming IPOs in South Korea as retail investors ― known as "ants" ― have flocked to the stock market with liquidity aided by the government's stimulus policy during the COVID-19 pandemic."It is quite tricky to predict LGES' first-day trading performance, mainly because the market's recent volatility caused by various factors such as investor concerns over the Federal Reserve and how quickly it will move," said Park Jung-hoon, fund manager at HDC Asset Management in Seoul.More than 4.4 million retail investors bid a record 114 trillion won ($95 billion) to subscribe to shares in the IPO, Asia's largest equity fund raising since Alibaba raised $12.9 billion in its Hong Kong secondary listing in 2019.Nearly 2,000 foreign and domestic institutional investors lodged bids worth about $12.8 trillion.More than 20 companies went public on South Korea's main board last year, raising about 17 trillion won, nearly double the previous record of 8.8 trillion won raised in 2010, according to the bourse operator, the Korea Exchange.While LGES' market value is dwarfed by its bigger Chinese rival Contemporary Amperex Technology's (CATL) $208 billion market capitalization, LG Chief Executive Kwon Young-soo has pointed to a 260 trillion won battery order backlog to highlight the company's growth potential.Analysts caution LGES will still likely face growing competition as Chinese peers expand into the global market and more automakers seek to develop their own EV battery technologies. (Reuters)

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LG Energy Solution

Economy & Strategy

AI-Powered Analysis of Corporate Disclosures: A Case Study on KOSPI Top 50 Companies (Sep 1, 2023)

Neutral

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

AI-Powered Analysis of Corporate Disclosures: A Case Study on KOSPI Top 50 Companies (Sep 1, 2023)

"Large Language Models for Semantic Monitoring of Corporate Disclosures: A Case Study on Korea’s Top 50 KOSPI Companies"This paper explores the feasibility of automating sentiment analysis of corporate disclosures from Korea’s top 50 KOSPI-listed companies using large language models (LLMs) such as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5-turbo and GPT-4.1. Key ObjectivesAssess the effectiveness of LLMs in analyzing the sentiment of corporate disclosures.Compare the performance of GPT-3.5-turbo and GPT-4 models.Identify challenges and limitations in sentiment analysis using LLMs.2. Research MethodologyThe top 50 KOSPI-listed companies were selected as of June 28, 2023.Monthly summaries of corporate disclosures from January 1, 2022, to May 31, 2023, were collected.GPT models were instructed to evaluate key factors such as financial stability, market share, and growth potential.Sentiment assessments generated by GPT models and financial experts were compared using a scale from 1 (highly negative) to 5 (highly positive).Inter-rater agreement was measured using Cohen’s Kappa statistic and simple agreement rate.The correlation between GPT models and human evaluations was analyzed using the Spearman correlation coefficient and Kendall rank correlation coefficient.3. Key FindingsSuperior Performance of GPT-4: GPT-4 exhibited a stronger correlation with human evaluations than GPT-3.5-turbo in all conditions, indicating its superior ability to comprehend and assess complex financial language.Optimal Condition: GPT-4 achieved the highest performance across all evaluation criteria under Condition 2, which applied adjustments to reduce overly positive sentiment assessments.Sentiment Bias: The study found that GPT models tended to overestimate the positivity of corporate disclosures, suggesting a natural inclination toward interpreting content favorably. This bias needs to be mitigated through further refinements. However, the study also highlights that these limitations can be addressed through additional adjustments.Agreement with Expert Opinions: Cohen’s Kappa statistic was recorded at 0.352, and the simple agreement rate stood at 68%, indicating a relatively reasonable level of agreement with expert assessments.4. Limitations & ChallengesLLMs lack background knowledge of the analyzed companies, limiting the depth and contextual understanding of their analysis.They are unable to incorporate external data sources such as financial data tables or news articles.They have limited capability in understanding and executing complex financial formulas or advanced statistical analysis.LLM performance may fluctuate over time, leading to inconsistencies.This study demonstrates that LLMs, particularly GPT-4, have significant potential in conducting sentiment analysis on Korean corporate disclosures. However, further research is needed to address the limitations of LLMs, mitigate biases, enhance contextual understanding, integrate external data sources, and improve mathematical analysis capabilities. This research contributes to a better understanding of LLMs’ capabilities and limitations in real-time sentiment monitoring, providing valuable insights for both academia and industry practitioners.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

KOSPI Remains Resilient Amid U.S. Market Crash… Focus on Impeachment Ruling & FOMC (Mar 17, 2025)

Neutral

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

KOSPI Remains Resilient Amid U.S. Market Crash… Focus on Impeachment Ruling & FOMC (Mar 17, 2025)

While U.S. markets experienced sharp declines on March 10—Nasdaq plummeting 4% and the Dow and S&P 500 falling over 2%, the Korean stock market demonstrated relative stability. On March 14, the KOSPI closed at 2,566.36, down 7.28 points (-0.28%), absorbing some of the U.S. market’s volatility while maintaining overall stability.This week, key events such as President Yoon Suk-yeol's impeachment ruling, the upcoming FOMC meeting on March 18-19 (March 20 KST), and the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision are expected to heighten market volatility. While the Fed is widely expected to hold rates at 4.50%, investor sentiment could shift based on Fed Chair Powell’s press conference and any change in policy stance.Analysts warn that the combination of political uncertainty and central bank policy shifts could act as a catalyst for short-term market corrections. Despite KOSPI's resilience, profit-taking or disappointment-driven sell-offs could emerge after these key events, making it a crucial factor for short-term selling strategies.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Neutral

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

Foreign Sell-Off Continues for 7th Month, Shaking Korean Stock Market (Mar 12, 2025)

Neutral

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

Foreign Sell-Off Continues for 7th Month, Shaking Korean Stock Market (Mar 12, 2025)

Concerns over President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and the rise of Chinese AI startup DeepSeek have led to sustained foreign sell-offs in the Korean stock market. In February, foreign investors offloaded $1.81 billion worth of Korean stocks, marking the seventh consecutive month of net foreign outflows. Meanwhile, Korea’s bond market saw inflows as rising short-term interest rates created arbitrage opportunities.According to the Bank of Korea, the Korean won remained weak despite a softer U.S. dollar, with the USD/KRW exchange rate hovering at 1,450. The KRW/JPY and KRW/CNY rates also rose by 4.6% and 0.6%, respectively. Analysts attribute this to Trump’s trade policies and concerns over Korea’s economic slowdown, as the country’s export-heavy economy remains vulnerable to the ongoing tariff war, heightening investor risk aversion.The semiconductor sector has been hit particularly hard, as DeepSeek’s AI advancements raised concerns about industry disruption, further dampening investor sentiment. This has intensified market instability, with major foreign investment banks lowering their outlook on Korea’s economy and corporate earnings.Despite the persistent capital outflows, some stabilizing factors remain. Credit Default Swap (CDS) premiums have declined, and exchange rate volatility remains manageable. However, the future trajectory of Trump’s tariff policies remains a critical risk factor, suggesting that Korean market volatility could increase further. Investors are advised to remain cautious in navigating these uncertainties.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

Neutral

226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

As inflation bites and America’s mood darkens, higher-income consumers are cutting back, too(May 16, 2022)

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226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

As inflation bites and America’s mood darkens, higher-income consumers are cutting back, too(May 16, 2022)

With as much as 60% of U.S. consumers living paycheck to paycheck, it’s not a surprise to see that the spending cutbacks have started. Even with a strong job market and wage gains, as well as Covid stimulus savings, price spikes in core spending categories including food, gas and shelter are leading more Americans to mind their pocketbooks closely.A new survey from CNBC and Momentive finds rising concerns about inflation and the risk of recession and Americans saying that not only have they started buying less but that they’ll buy less across more categories if inflation persists. But these financial stress points are not limited to lower-income consumers. The survey finds Americans with incomes of at least $100,000 saying they’ve cut back on spending or may soon do so in numbers that are not far off the decisions being made by lower-income groups.The high-income consumer demographic is key to the economy. While it represents only one-third of consumers, it is responsible for up to three-quarters of the spending. “If the high-income consumers are out buying, we won’t see a big impact on raw consumer activity,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.Lower-income households are the most at risk, and they are the ones most likely to be making unwelcome tradeoffs to make their money stretch as far as it did just a few months ago, according to the survey results. They are also clearly experiencing more financial anxiety, according to the survey, with 57% of Americans with income under $50,000 saying they are under more stress than a year ago, versus 45% of those with incomes of $100,000 or more. The 68% of high-income consumers who said they are worried higher prices will force them to rethink financial decisions is significantly lower than the 82% of Americans with income of $50,000 or less who told the survey this, but it is still a majority.More than half of people with household incomes under $50,000 say they have already cut back on multiple expenses due to prices, and for those with income of at least $100,000, the cutback levels are already similar when it comes to dining out, taking vacations, and buying a car.“People making six-figure incomes are almost as worried about inflation as people making half as much —and they are just as likely to be taking steps to mitigate its effect on their lives,” said Laura Wronski, senior manager of research science at Momentive. “Inflation is a problem that compounds over time, and even high-income individuals won’t be insulated from the second- and third-order effects of price increases.”The University of Michigan Survey of Consumers finds more consumers mentioning reduced living standards due to rising inflation than at any other time in the survey’s history except during the two worst recessions in the past 50 years: from March 1979 to April 1981 and from May to October 2008. Notably, the consumer confidence gap between low- and high-income levels always shrinks at cyclical troughs and is always widest at peak, and the gap is narrowing now, according to survey director Richard Curtin. In January, the percentage point gap between the lowest-income group and highest-income group in the survey’s sentiment index was 13.2 points. That was erased in March, with the top-income group sentiment actually dipping below the lowest-income bracket in overall sentiment and future expectations. In January, the higher-income group expectations, specifically, were 18 percentage points higher.Right now, there is a unique set of issues that could be exacerbating this gap narrowing, Curtin said, including the potential for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to do more damage to the global economy than forecast and the fact that the majority of the population has not experienced 10%+ inflation, or 15% mortgage rates, as past generations had.“Even at lower rates they may display behaviors associated with more extreme economic conditions in the past,” Curtin said. “Precautionary motives play a big part in consumption trends for upper income groups.”“The American consumer is in a dark mood,” Zandi said of the CNBC survey data. It’s been more than two years since the pandemic hit, first with millions of lost jobs and high unemployment, and now high inflation, and “fractured politics also weighing heavily on the collective psyche.”All income groups in the survey are equally likely to say the economy will enter a recession this year, at over 80%. But there is a key caveat: Spending actions from the economy don’t yet indicate this prediction will come true.Despite the downbeat feelings about their financial situations, and the cutbacks, consumers are still spending strongly, Zandi emphasized. There are now lots of jobs, unemployment is low, debt loads are light, asset prices are high, and there is a lot of excess saving. Even if people are cutting back, spending less on some items, the mood has not yet taken control of the spending motivation to a degree that amounts to more than a slowdown in economic growth. “I suspect the American consumer will continue spending, regardless of their mood, as long as the job market remains strong,” Zandi said.

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226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

5 signs the world is headed for a recession(Oct 2, 2022)

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226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

5 signs the world is headed for a recession(Oct 2, 2022)

Around the world, markets are flashing warning signs that the global economy is teetering on a cliff’s edge.The question of a recession is no longer if, but when.Over the past week, the pulse of those flashing red lights quickened as markets grappled with the reality — once speculative, now certain — that the Federal Reserve will press on with its most aggressive monetary tightening campaign in decades to wring inflation from the US economy. Even if that means triggering a recession. And even if it comes at the expense of consumers and businesses far beyond US borders.There’s now a 98% chance of a global recession, according to research firm Ned Davis, which brings some sobering historical credibility to the table. The firm’s recession probability reading has only been this high twice before — in 2008 and 2020.When economists warn of a downturn, they’re typically basing their assessment on a variety of indicators.Let’s unpack five key trends:The mighty US dollarThe US dollar plays an outsized role in the global economy and international finance. And right now, it is stronger than it’s been in two decades.The simplest explanation comes back to the Fed.When the US central bank raises interest rates, as it has been doing since March, it makes the dollar more appealing to investors around the world.In any economic climate, the dollar is seen as a safe place to park your money. In a tumultuous climate — a global pandemic, say, or a war in Eastern Europe — investors have even more incentive to purchase dollars, usually in the form of US government bonds.While a strong dollar is a nice perk for Americans traveling abroad, it creates headaches for just about everyone else.The value of the UK pound, the euro, China’s yuan and Japan’s yen, among many others, has tumbled. That makes it more expensive for those nations to import essential items like food and fuel.In response, central banks that are already fighting pandemic-induced inflation wind up raising rates higher and faster to shore up the value of their own currencies.The dollar’s strength also creates destabilizing effects for Wall Street, as many of the S&P 500 companies do business around the world. By one estimate from Morgan Stanley, each 1% rise in the dollar index has a negative 0.5% impact on S&P 500 earnings.America’s economic engine stallsThe No. 1 driver of the world’s largest economy is shopping. And America’s shoppers are tired.After more than a year of rising prices on just about everything, with wages not keeping up, consumers have pulled back.“The hardship caused by inflation means that consumers are dipping into their savings,” EY Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco said in a note Friday. The personal saving rate in August remained unchanged at only 3.5%, Daco said — near its lowest rate since 2008, and well below its pre-Covid level of around 9%.Once again, the reason behind the pullback has a lot to do with the Fed.Interest rates have risen at a historic pace, pushing mortgage rates to their highest level in more than a decade and making it harder for businesses to grow. Eventually, the Fed’s rate hikes should broadly bring costs down. But in the meantime, consumers are getting a one-two punch of high borrowing rates and high prices, especially when it comes to necessities like food and housing.Americans opened their wallets during the 2020 lockdowns, which powered the economy out of its brief-but-severe pandemic recession. Since then, government aid has evaporated and inflation has taken root, pushing prices up at their fastest rate in 40 years and sapping consumers’ spending power.Corporate America tightens its beltBusiness has been booming across industries for the bulk of the pandemic era, even with historically high inflation eating into profits. That is thanks (once again) to the tenacity of American shoppers, as businesses were largely able to pass on their higher costs to consumers to cushion profit margins.But the earnings bonanza may not last.In mid-September, one company whose fortunes serve as a kind of economic bellwether gave investors a shock.FedEx, which operates in more than 200 countries, unexpectedly revised its outlook, warning that demand was softening, and earnings were likely to plunge more than 40%.In an interview, its CEO was asked whether he believes the slowdown was a sign of a looming global recession.“I think so,” he responded. “These numbers, they don’t portend very well.”FedEx isn’t alone. On Tuesday, Apple’s stock fell after Bloomberg reported the company was scrapping plans to increase iPhone 14 production after demand came in below expectations.And just ahead of the holiday season, when employers would normally ramp up hiring, the mood is now more cautious.“We’ve not seen the normal September uptick in companies posting for temporary help,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter. “Companies are hanging back and waiting to see what conditions hold.”Welcome to bear territoryWall Street has been hit with whiplash, and stocks are now on track for their worst year since 2008 — in case anyone needs yet another scary historical comparison.But last year was a very different story. Equity markets thrived in 2021, with the S&P 500 soaring 27%, thanks to a torrent of cash pumped in by the Federal Reserve, which unleashed a double-barreled monetary-easing policy in the spring of 2020 to keep financial markets from crumbling.The party lasted until early 2022. But as inflation set in, the Fed began to take away the proverbial punch bowl, raising interest rates and unwinding its bond-buying mechanism that had propped up the market.The hangover has been brutal. The S&P 500, the broadest measure of Wall Street — and the index responsible for the bulk of Americans’ 401(k)s — is down nearly 24% for the year. And it’s not alone. All three major US indexes are in bear markets — down at least 20% from their most recent highs.In an unfortunate twist, bond markets, typically a safe haven for investors when stocks and other assets decline, are also in a tailspin.FedEx isn’t alone. On Tuesday, Apple’s stock fell after Bloomberg reported the company was scrapping plans to increase iPhone 14 production after demand came in below expectations.And just ahead of the holiday season, when employers would normally ramp up hiring, the mood is now more cautious.“We’ve not seen the normal September uptick in companies posting for temporary help,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter. “Companies are hanging back and waiting to see what conditions hold.”Welcome to bear territoryWall Street has been hit with whiplash, and stocks are now on track for their worst year since 2008 — in case anyone needs yet another scary historical comparison.But last year was a very different story. Equity markets thrived in 2021, with the S&P 500 soaring 27%, thanks to a torrent of cash pumped in by the Federal Reserve, which unleashed a double-barreled monetary-easing policy in the spring of 2020 to keep financial markets from crumbling.The party lasted until early 2022. But as inflation set in, the Fed began to take away the proverbial punch bowl, raising interest rates and unwinding its bond-buying mechanism that had propped up the market.The hangover has been brutal. The S&P 500, the broadest measure of Wall Street — and the index responsible for the bulk of Americans’ 401(k)s — is down nearly 24% for the year. And it’s not alone. All three major US indexes are in bear markets — down at least 20% from their most recent highs.In an unfortunate twist, bond markets, typically a safe haven for investors when stocks and other assets decline, are also in a tailspin.Once again, blame the Fed.Inflation, along with the steep rise in interest rates by the central bank, has pushed bond prices down, which causes bond yields (aka the return an investor gets for their loan to the government) to go up.On Wednesday, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury briefly surpassed 4%, hitting its highest level in 14 years. That surge was followed by a steep drop in response to the Bank of England’s intervention in its own spiraling bond market — amounting to tectonic moves in a corner of the financial world that is designed to be steady, if not downright boring.European bond yields are also spiking as central banks follow the Fed’s lead in raising rates to shore up their own currencies.Bottom line: There are few safe places for investors to put their money right now, and that’s unlikely to change until global inflation gets under control and central banks loosen their grips.War, soaring prices and radical policies collideNowhere is the collision of economic, financial, and political calamities more painfully visible than in the United Kingdom.Like the rest of the world, the UK has struggled with surging prices that are largely attributable to the colossal shock of Covid-19, followed by the trade disruptions created by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As the West cut off imports of Russian natural gas, energy prices have soared and supplies have dwindled.Those events were bad enough on their own.But then, just over a week ago, the freshly installed government of Prime Minister Liz Truss announced a sweeping tax-cut plan that economists from both ends of the political spectrum have decried as unorthodox at best, diabolical at worst.In short, the Truss administration said it would slash taxes for all Britons to encourage spending and investment and, in theory, soften the blow of a recession. But the tax cuts aren’t funded, which means the government must take on debt to finance them.That decision set off a panic in financial markets and put Downing Street in a standoff with its independent central bank, the Bank of England. Investors around the world sold off UK bonds in droves, plunging the pound to its lowest level against the dollar in nearly 230 years. As in, since 1792, when Congress made the US dollar legal tender.The BOE staged an emergency intervention to buy up UK bonds on Wednesday and restore order in financial markets. It stemmed the bleeding, for now. But the ripple effects of the Trussonomics turmoil is spreading far beyond the offices of bond traders.Britons, who are already in a cost-of-living crisis, with inflation at 10% — the highest of any G7 economy — are now panicking over higher borrowing costs that could force millions of homeowners’ monthly mortgage payments to go up by hundreds or even thousands of pounds.The upshotWhile the consensus is that a global recession is likely sometime in 2023, it’s impossible to predict how severe it will be or how long it will last. Not every recession is as painful as the 2007-09 Great Recession, but every recession is, of course, painful.Some economies, particularly the United States, with its strong labor market and resilient consumers, will be able to withstand the blow better than others.“We are in uncharted waters in the months ahead,” wrote economists at the World Economic Forum in a report this week.“The immediate outlook for the global economy and for much of the world’s population is dark,” they continued, adding that the challenges “will test the resilience of economies and societies and exact a punishing human toll.”But there are some silver linings, they said. Crises force transformations that can ultimately improve standards of living and make economies stronger.“Businesses have to change. This has been the story since the pandemic started,” said Rima Bhatia, an economic adviser for Gulf International Bank. “Businesses no longer can continue on the path that they were at. That’s the opportunity and that’s the silver lining.”

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226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

Two of the world’s biggest economies are at risk of recession(Nov 10, 2019)

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133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Two of the world’s biggest economies are at risk of recession(Nov 10, 2019)

Investors have recently put fears about the pace of global growth aside, opting for optimism on a “phase one” US-China trade deal. But muted economic data expected out of Europe this week could change the mood.Germany may post data Thursday indicating that it’s in recession. Economists surveyed by Reuters believe the world’s fourth largest economy shrank 0.1% between July and September — marking two straight quarters of negative growth.It’s possible that Germany — which has been hit by the trade war, as well as falling global demand for autos — just dodged a bullet. Exports unexpectedly rebounded in September, rising 1.5% compared to the previous month. August data was also revised upward.“With today’s data, a technical recession is not yet a done deal,” Carsten Brzeski, ING’s chief German economist, told clients, noting that Germany could have avoided another contraction “at the very last minute.”Recession or not, the reality is that Germany’s economy, the largest in Europe, looks very weak. A reminder of that could give investors a jolt.“The fact remains that the German economy has been in de facto stagnation for more than a year,” Brzeski said. “This is clearly nothing to become too cheerful about.”Not to be missed: Also on the calendar is Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress on the US economy, which takes place Wednesday and Thursday.Expect Powell to get grilled on where the Fed goes after three straight “insurance” cuts to interest rates. But he’s also likely to face questions on weak manufacturing and business investment data — and what it tells us about the strength of the world’s biggest economy.Up first: The United Kingdom will report GDP data on Monday. The country’s economy shrank for the first time since 2012 in the second quarter as global growth and Brexit fears loomed large — but economists polled by Reuters think the country will narrowly avoid a recession by notching 0.4% growth between July and September.

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133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Bonds up - a first in weeks(Nov 30, 1999)

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133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Bonds up - a first in weeks(Nov 30, 1999)

Treasury bonds rose Tuesday, their first major gains in two weeks, as the highest yields in a month drew investors into fixed-income securities. "Yields were near some of their highest levels of the year,� said Bill Hornbarger, fixed-income analyst at A.G. Edwards."You see some people interested in bonds at those levels.� Just before 3:15 p.m. ET, the price of the benchmark Treasury bond rose 10/32 to 97-27/32. Its yield, which moves inversely to its price, fell to 6.28 percent from 6.30 percent Monday. The gains came despite two economic reports Tuesday that showed the kind of inflation- suggesting strength that might typically spark a Treasury sell-off. The Conference Board's index of consumer sentiment surged to 135.8 in November from a revised 130.5 reading in October. Separately, the National Association of Purchasing Management said its Chicago prices paid index rose to 70.9 from 65.4. But David Ging, bond analyst at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, said Monday�s bond sell-off, which pushed yields to November highs, effectively discounted the day�s news of rising inflation, which erodes a bonds� value. Bond traders, Ging said, "are really looking at the payrolls data because that�s what (Federal Reserve chief Alan) Greenspan�s looking at.� That data comes Friday, when the Labor department�s last monthly jobs report of the year is expected to show the kind of labor market tightness that may lead to rising inflation, and help prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again. The November unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 4.1 percent, near a 30-year low. Economists polled by Reuters estimate that non-farm payrolls grew by 226,000 jobs in November. The Fed tightened credit three times this year in a bid to pre-empt inflation and cool an overheating economy. Analysts said bonds also got support Tuesday as falling oil prices eased concerns over rising inflation. In New York, light crude for January delivery fell 91 cents to $25.05 a barrel. "Oil prices have a lot to do with,� A.G. Edwards� Hornbarger said of Tuesday�s gains. Dollar stuck in the middle The yen rose Tuesday, nearing last week�s four-year high against the dollar, as traders shrugged off the Japanese government�s second effort in two days to weaken its currency. Worried about the strong yen�s drag on exports, the Bank of Japan�s latest effort to sell yen for dollars proved ineffective, as traders bet on Japan�s economic recovery by buying yen. "The market's current belief that U.S. and European monetary officials will not come to the assistance of their Japanese counterparts is rendering Bank of Japan intervention futile,� said Alex Beuzelin, market analyst at Ruesch International. Just before 3:15 p.m. ET, the yen rose to 101.95 from 102.70 Monday, a 0.73 percent increase in the yen�s value. Officials fret that a strengthening yen, because it makes exports tougher to sell, may derail the Asian nation's fragile economic recovery. Yen strength hurt Japanese stock market�s, which were pulled down by major exporters like Sony Corp. and Fujitsu Ltd. But the yen continues to strengthen as money floods into Japanese stocks, which must be bought in local currency. The euro, meanwhile, weakened against the dollar, keeping near lifetime lows versus the U.S. currency Just before 3:15 p.m. ET, it cost $1.0085 to buy one euro compared with $1.0100 Monday, a 0.15 percent drop in the euro�s value. Analysts recently have come to blame the slide of the euro, which has lost about 16 percent of its value in its 11-month lifespan, on uncertainty over the European Central Bank�s policy stance. "The ECB main challenge this week is to give the markets a clear message that it does not favor a precipitous decline in the euro,� Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette said in a note to clients Tuesday. "In our view, any further weakening of the euro below parity (with the dollar) may have to be met with stronger policy coordination than seen to date

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133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Who's raising our rates?(May 22, 2000)

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133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Who's raising our rates?(May 22, 2000)

Who are these guys, and why are they jacking up the nation's rent, so to speak, by raising the cost of credit-card, car-loan, home-mortgage and other debt?In one sense, last week's stiff interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve's little known Federal Open Market Committee was a no-brainer, given the still sizzling growth of the U.S. economy. But in another sense, the panel's increase in the so-called federal-funds rate from 6% to 6.5% marked a spectacular wager on your future, with your money, by 10 unelected and largely unknown officials operating behind closed doors. By raising the rate that underpins most other borrowing costs to its highest level in nine years, the committee is hoping--make that praying--to cool the economy and forestall ruinous inflation without jeopardizing the longest-running expansion in U.S. history.Such high-stakes crapshoots are routine for the FOMC, a secretive body whose ability to raise or lower interest rates makes it perhaps the second most powerful group of appointees in Washington--behind only the Supreme Court. Led by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan--the one member with star wattage--the panel gathers eight times a year around a 27-ft. 11-in. black granite and mahogany table to issue diktats that are feverishly parsed on Wall Street and around the world. The members are the seven Fed governors, plus five of the 12 regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents at a time. (Two governors' seats are currently vacant; a Ph.D. in economics will help if you'd like to apply.) The remaining bank chiefs are nonvoting but vocal participants.While the press tends to treat Greenspan as the sole author of interest-rate policies, insiders and Fed watchers know that is hardly the case. Greenspan, actually considered a moderate among the group's inflation hawks and doves, is clearly first among equals and exerts a considerable influence over the FOMC. But as a careful consensus builder, he is also at pains to stake out positions that the rest of the committee can live with--and thereby avoid any risk of being embarrassed by a close vote. "There is a limit to how far the chairman's influence can be extended," Fed governor Laurence Meyer recently explained. "A good chairman sometimes has to lead the FOMC by following the consensus within the committee."What confronted this increasingly hawkish panel last week was a maverick economy that simply refuses to do what it's told. The Fed had raised rates a quarter of a percent--or 25 basis points, in the lingo--no fewer than five times since last June, with little tangible impact on either GDP growth or unemployment. Joblessness stood at just 3.9% in April, its lowest level in three decades. This persistent lack of idleness sent shivers up the spines of FOMC members, who fear that tight labor markets will lead to inflationary wage increases. To make matters worse, from a Fed perspective, the economy expanded at a brisk 5.4% clip in the recent first quarter, well above the presumed 3.5% to 4% "speed limit" that many economists have viewed as the upper range for growth without inflation."There is real frustration within the FOMC," says Fed watcher David Jones of the Aubrey G. Lanston investment firm. "Borrowing costs have been going up for more than a year, and yet no one seems to care. The Fed is asking 'What does it take to get the consumer's attention?'" The FOMC's answer: its first 50-basis-point increase in the federal-funds rate--the interest that banks charge one another for overnight loans--in five years, plus a stern warning that you can expect another boost when the committee meets again next month. (What should you do about your finances? See following story.)Ironically, the Fed's get-tough stance came just hours after a Commerce Department report showed that the "core" rate of inflation (the Consumer Price Index with volatile food and energy prices omitted) had fallen to an annual rate of 2.4% in April, down from 4.8% in March. That led Senator Tom Harkin, an Iowa Democrat, to denounce the FOMC increase as "clearly excessive" at a time when "accelerating inflation is not apparent." If this continues, says Harkin, "our economy is going to bleed to death." In other words, the Democrats need a slowing economy in an election year like they do another Monica.Last week's hawkish increase marked a clear departure from the gradualist policies that Greenspan had championed for years. "Three years ago," recalls former Fed vice chairman Alice Rivlin, "some [FOMC] members were worried about the economy overheating. But I wasn't, and neither was Greenspan." Both argued that technology was making workers more productive and stifling inflation. The FOMC thus opted for a string of small rate hikes that became a hallmark of Greenspan's cautious approach to monetary policy.But this spring the chairman reset his course, and other doves on the panel found themselves in full retreat. The tough new thinking was reinforced by the arrival of voting members like Jerry Jordan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (Ohio). "There is [agreement] right now that the economy is growing too rapidly," Rivlin says. The moral: "If you step on the brakes a little and the car doesn't slow down, then you need to step on them a bit harder the next time."The stubbornly strong growth convinced Robert McTeer, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, that larger rate increases may be appropriate this year. McTeer, whose voting term expired last December, had been the only panelist to dissent from Fed tightening in 1999. "I believed, unlike some others, that productivity gains were keeping inflation sufficiently in check," McTeer says. "But as we moved into 2000, the signals from the economy were fairly clear cut. There was little question in anyone's mind that inflationary pressures were building."Nor was there much doubt on Wall Street about what the Fed panel was planning. Just two weeks ago, Robert Parry, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and a voting member, strongly hinted at the outcome by declaring in a speech "We have moved cautiously, but that doesn't mean we only have a single note to play."The curtain went up promptly at 9 a.m. last Tuesday when Greenspan stepped through the doorway that connects his office to the boardroom to signal the start of the FOMC meeting. (The room sports a large map of the U.S. at one end and, at the other, a fireplace with a bronze sculpture of Demeter, the Greek goddess of agriculture and fertility.) Instead of taking his usual place at the head of the table, Greenspan pulled out a chair in the middle--a move that highlighted his desire to forge a consensus but set off a round of musical chairs to preserve the customary seating plan in relation to the chairman.The meeting commenced, as all do, with the approval of the minutes of the last gathering--this is a government bureaucracy, after all--and some staff reports. Then a "go-round" took place in which the presidents and Fed governors discussed the economic outlook, each having had access to two briefing books bulging with fresh data and policy choices. Then it was Greenspan's turn, the meeting's moment of truth, when he delivers his interest-rate recommendation and the rationale for it. "Greenspan always has some striking insight, or some number that no one else has ever heard of before," notes Fed watcher Jones.The complete transcript of what the chairman and other FOMC members said won't be released for five years, yet Fed watchers have little doubt that most speakers expressed exasperation at the refusal of the expansion to knuckle under to past rate increases and stressed their determination to try again.Nor did students of the Fed see any sign of dissent from the doves. "In the old days," says economist Kevin Flanagan of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, "there was a debate over who was an influential hawk and who an influential dove." But today, Flanagan notes, any policy disagreements tend to vanish into Greenspan's carefully nurtured consensus. Concurs Fed governor Meyer, who has a reputation as a hawk's hawk on inflation: "Many members will voice some disagreement with the chairman's view in the go-rounds. But many of those will vote with the chairman in the end."Having done so, the most powerful monetary movers and shakers on the planet invariably line up for an informal boardroom lunch. Reaching for paper plates and plasticware, the FOMC members help themselves to a buffet that last week featured cold cuts, soft drinks, salads and chocolate-chip cookies--a special favorite of many members. Then they headed back to their offices to watch Wall Street's reaction, while bankers across the country adjusted the loan-rate signs in their windows. --Reported by Bernard Baumohl and Eric Roston/New York and Adam Zagorin/Washington

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Bonds fall for 3rd session. Yields rise above key 6% level on fears of strong economic data(Aug 30, 1999)

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Bonds fall for 3rd session. Yields rise above key 6% level on fears of strong economic data(Aug 30, 1999)

Treasury bond prices fell for the third consecutive session Monday, sending yields to two-week highs, as the latest set of economic data suggested the economy continues to strengthen. Just before 3:30 p.m. ET, the price of the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond fell 1-8/32. Its yield, which moves inversely to the price, rose to 6.06 percent from Friday's close of 5.97 percent. Bonds immediately began falling after the Commerce Department said sales of new homes rose 0.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 980,000. The rate, well above expectations, is the second-highest ever and suggests the robust housing market is not letting up. Already, fears of an overheating economy have led the Federal Open Market Committee to raise short-term interest rates by a quarter percentage point in both June and August. Monday's housing data, coupled with a series of strong economic data this week, could provoke fears of another rate hike when the FOMC meets in October. Already, traders are looking toward Wednesday, when the National Association of Purchasing Management releases its closely watched index of manufacturing activity, which is expected to rise to 54.5 from 53.4 in July. "NAPM could be quite strong," said Josh Stiles, bond strategist at IDEA Global.com. Anthony Crescenzi, bond market strategist with Miller Tabak Hirsch & Co., agreed. "What we're seeing is an increase in the manufacturing sector," Crescenzi said "The manufacturing sector has been very weak for the last year and a half -- since the Asian (financial) crisis. Now, that sector seems to be recovering." A strong rebound in manufacturing, Crescenzi said, could lead to a 4 percent economic growth rate -- a number not consistent with low inflation. On Friday, the Labor Department releases August employment figures. Analysts expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.3 percent, near a 30-year low, with employers adding 206,000 non-farm jobs during the month. Full circle Explaining Monday's sell-off, traders also cited profit taking, saying the two-day bond rally following Tuesday's FOMC rate hike may have been overdone. Yields have "gotten back to where they were before they tightened," said Bruce Alston, who manages $1.5 billion in bonds for Value Line Asset Management. Also bearish for bonds, the price of oil Monday rose to its highest level since October 1997. Further, traders are worried about the market's ability to absorb an estimated $20 billion in new corporate bonds expected to sell in September. But analysts also noted the day's light trading volume, which can exaggerate the significance of price movements. "It's low volume, so a little selling goes a long way," Value Line's Alston said. Dollar weakens Further weighing on Treasurys, the dollar fell sharply against the yen. Just before 3:30 p.m. ET the U.S. currency slipped to 110.69 yen, almost a 1 percent drop from Friday's close of 111.77. The yen over the last several weeks has continued to strengthen against the dollar, helped by Japan's surging stock market and the belief the Asian nation is recovering from recession.Looking ahead, Tim Fox, currency analyst at Standard Charter Bank, sees the yen pushing higher against the dollar as long as Japanese stocks continue to gain. "A crucial aspect is going to be the Nikkei," Fox said of Tokyo's benchmark stock index. "The Nikkei has been driving the yen higher, trying to latch on to the strength of the Japanese stock market. If that continues, then dollar-yen will persist through that sort of 110 (yen) area, and perhaps break (through to) 108 later this year." The dollar, meanwhile, weakened slightly against the euro. Just before 3:30 p.m. ET, it cost $1.0463 to buy one euro compared with $1.0455 Friday, a 0.08 percent drop in the dollar's value.

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Nasdaq plummets. Index posts 7th largest point loss; strong retail sales data fuels rate hike fears(Dec 14, 1997)

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Nasdaq plummets. Index posts 7th largest point loss; strong retail sales data fuels rate hike fears(Dec 14, 1997)

U.S. stocks ended lower Tuesday, with the Nasdaq composite plunging late in the session. The index, along with the broader market, languished in negative territory throughout the day after a stronger-than-expected retail sales report ignited interest rate fears. In addition, sharp losses in the bond market weighed on stocks. "When the bond market sold off, it caused a drastic reaction in the tech sector and the Nasdaq. There is no company news to account for the big drop,� said Alan Skrainka, chief market strategist at Edward Jones. The Nasdaq composite index tumbled 86.51 points, or 2.36 percent, to 3,571.66. The drop was the seventh largest point loss in the history of the index. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 32.42 to 11,160.17, and the S&P 500 index retreated 12.05 to 1,403.17. Breadth was negative on the New York Stock Exchange with losers widely beating gainers 2,024 to 1,069. Trading volume reached a heavy 1 billion shares. Treasury prices plunged following the retail sales report, with the benchmark 30-year bond losing more than a point, raising its yield to 6.29 percent from 6.19 percent late Monday. In currency markets, the dollar rose against both the yen and the euro. Investors digest key economic news Market participants digested conflicting data on the U.S. economy. The strong retail sales report sparked some interest-rate worries despite a separate report pointing to tame inflation. Analysts said inflation was holding steady following the Consumer Price Index release. The CPI, a measure of inflation at the retail level, rose 0.1 percent in November, the Labor Department said. The number was less than analysts� expectations of a 0.2 percent gain. The core rate, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2 percent, in line with expectations. But retail sales data were more troublesome. Retail sales advanced at a 0.9 percent pace in November, well above economists� expectations of a 0.5 percent increase, fueling some concerns about rate hikes. Gary Schlossberg, senior economist at Wells Capital Management, said retail sales were the real surprise. "The retail sales number implies consumer spending is running well above its long-term average,� he said. The two reports are significant, analysts noted, since they are the last key economic releases that Federal Reserve policy makers will have to consider in determining interest rates at their Dec. 21 meeting. The economic news particularly weighed on financial stocks. The sector is highly sensitive to interest rates due to the stronger probability of borrowers defaulting on their loans when interest rates rise, therefore hurting corporate earnings. Among the Dow components, American Express (AXP) fell 5-13/16 to 160-1/2, Citigroup (C) retreated 1-13/16 to 53-1/2 and J.P. Morgan (JPM) declined 3-5/16 to 131-1/4. Nasdaq tumbles In a late selloff, the Nasdaq plunged after languishing in negative territory throughout the session. Analysts noted a lack of leadership weighed on the market, particularly in the usually strong technology sector. "All the sizzling hot stocks are taking a breather. Investors are reluctant to look elsewhere when the hot stocks are down,� said Charles Payne, head analyst at Wall Street Strategies. The weakness in technology followed the Nasdaq�s 52nd record close of the year Monday. Analysts said many participants were willing to stay on the sidelines. However, many strategists were unconcerned by Tuesday�s market performance. Michael Carty, stock market strategist at New Millennium Advisors, a New York investment firm, said the losses would not be long lasting. "The economy is very strong and interest rates are likely to remain stable. There are many stocks out there with strong potential earnings,� he said. Among the top Nasdaq gainers, 3Com Corp. (COMS), the world's second-largest maker of computer networking products, surged 5-13/16, or nearly 13 percent, to 50-5/8 after the company filed an initial public offering for its Palm Computing unit. Palm makes the No. 1 electronic organizer. But 3Com rivals suffered. Cisco Systems (CSCO) retreated 3-1/4 to 97-15/16, and Lucent Technologies (LU) dipped 2-1/2 to 77-1/4. Internet issues were in the red despite reports of some potential partnerships with major retailers. Yahoo! (YHOO) and the nation�s No. 3 retailer Kmart (KM) are expected to unveil an alliance to offer co-branded Internet access, according to the Wall Street Journal. Yahoo! fell 17-15/16 to 333-1/8, while Kmart rose 9/16 to 12-1/16. The report follows speculation of a potential marketing alliance between America Online (AOL) and Wal-Mart Stores (WMT), the world's No. 1 retailer. AOL slumped 5-3/4 to 88-1/4 and Wal-Mart, a component of the Dow industrials, inched down 15/16 to 67-1/16. The blue chips benefited from gains to Dow component Microsoft (MSFT). Its stock advanced 2-1/16 to 98-11/16 amid rumors that the world's No. 1 software company may be near a settlement of the U.S. government�s landmark antitrust case. However, a Justice Department spokeswoman told CNNfn the rumors were unfounded.��

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Bonds fall for third day(Dec 15, 1999)

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Bonds fall for third day(Dec 15, 1999)

Treasury bonds fell for the third straight session Wednesday, pushing yields to the highest levels of the month, as a series of inflation-suggesting factors kept alive fears of another Federal Reserve interest rate hike ahead. Just before 3:15 p.m. ET, the price of the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond fell 13/32 to 97-5/32. Its yield, which moves inversely to the price, rose to a December high of 6.33 percent, from 6.30 percent Tuesday. Explaining the day�s losses, analysts cited a host of signs of strong economic growth that could ignite inflation and prompt the Fed to raise interest rates again. "Where�s the (economic) slowdown?� asked Josh Stiles, bond market strategist at IDEAGlobal.com. "We�re not seeing it.� Negatives include rising oil prices, surging stock markets and fears that Thursday�s trade report could lead to an upward revision of the nation�s gross domestic product. Light sweet crude oil for February delivery gained 35 cents to $25.80 a barrel Wednesday, igniting fears that gains in the widely used commodity will show up in closely watched inflation gauges like the Consumer Price index. Stocks rose again Wednesday, in a phenomenon that economists say creates the kind of paper wealth that leads to increased consumer spending. "Bonds are reacting a little poorly to the rebound in equities,� said Bruce Alston, who manages $1.5 billion in bonds for Value Line Asset Management. Just Tuesday, retails sales jumped a larger-than-expected 0.9 percent, prompting a major bond market sell-off. Wednesday�s data did not help. U.S. industrial production rose steadily in November as manufacturing businesses hit their fastest stride in a year. Tony Crescenzi, bond analyst at Miller Tabak & Co. mentioned a concern that Thursday�s international trade report for October could show a trade deficit wide enough to prompt an upward revision in the nation�s gross domestic product. "If the trade deficit is reported lower than the consensus estimate of $24.2 billion, this will force GDP estimates still higher toward 6 percent -- a level reached just four times in the past 15 years,� Crescenzi said. That would only add to the view that the Fed, the nation�s central bank, will have to raise rates again to cool an overheating economy. Fed officials gather Dec. 21, but with the meeting so close to potential Y2K worries they are expected to keep their main lending rate unchanged at 5.50 percent. But analysts say a rate hike likely will come at the next Fed gathering in February unless the economy shows signs of slowing. The Fed tightened credit three times since June in a bid to preempt inflation and stem the rapid pace of economic growth. Dollar mixed The dollar kept to a tight range Wednesday, rising modestly against the yen but falling slightly versus the euro. Analysts cited no fresh fundamental reasons behind the day�s limited dollar movements. Just before 3:15 p.m. ET, the euro rose to $1.0069 from $1.0056 Tuesday. Despite the slight gains, analysts say another test for the euro below dollar parity is still possible as long as the U.S. economy continues to outperform Europe�s. "The U.S. economy's strong rate of growth combined with low inflation remains very dollar supportive,� Ruesch International said in a note to clients Wednesday. �Parity in euro/dollar remains a very realistic objective for traders today.� The battered euro, which has lost about 16 percent of its value since its January inception, first fell below $1 two weeks ago. The dollar, meanwhile, rose to 103.68 yen from 103.45 Tuesday, continuing a trend begun Monday.

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Still On A Roll?(Nov 10, 1997)

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Still On A Roll?(Nov 10, 1997)

New York City's 21 Club, a famed Midtown eatery, was expecting a group of 90 Wall Street types from Salomon Brothers, a famed investment house, for lunch last Monday. Only 40 showed. "And they were grim," recalls Swapan Rozario, who works 21's banquet room. Downtown, the stock market was having Solly and all the other big swinging brokerage houses for lunch, plunging a record 554 points in one nauseating session. The next day, Turnaround Tuesday, Salomon's traders, and everyone else, were too busy making money to have lunch, as the Dow reared up to gain back 337 points of that loss.The mesmerizing pair of panics--the headlong retreat on Monday followed by a buying frenzy the next day--is causing policymakers, corporations and investors to make an abrupt re-evaluation of the economy and the stock market in the face of an unexpected jolt from the Far East. If the market is the sum of all investors' knowledge at any given moment, as many theorists argue, then what on earth is this barking dog trying to tell us?For one thing, it says the notion that small investors, inexperienced in down markets, would bolt at the first sign of trouble is all wrong. It was the pros who fled on Monday: if these guys had been on the Titanic, they would have been fighting the children for lifeboats. The pros were saved by the little guys on Tuesday. Most folks did nothing; others couldn't wait to "buy the dips," just as they had been counseled to do so often. "I have been through this a few times," says Kooshy Afshar, the owner of a small printing company in Beverly Hills, Calif. "When the market goes down, I sit tight. I look at the market as a long-term investment."But beyond that obvious message, is there a deeper meaning? It seems farfetched that such a panic could occur for no good reason and without consequence. We're way beyond normal price volatility here. Throughout history, daily Dow moves of 1% or 2% up or down have been relatively common. But Monday's 7% decline was the 12th worst ever; Tuesday's 4.7% gain, the best in a decade. Was the market right on Monday or on Tuesday?We have been cruising along under the fuzzy notion that the '90s are different, that an economy with seemingly rock-solid fundamentals could withstand the buffeting of currency crises in countries half a world away. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who likes this kind of excitement about as much as he does a rash, carefully reinforced his long-held belief that the Nirvana-like state of low unemployment and steady growth that correlates with his tenure can be sustained by riding herd on inflation. Said he: "Our economy has enjoyed a lengthy period of good economic growth, linked, not coincidentally, to damped inflation. The Federal Reserve is dedicated to contributing as best it can to prolonging this performance." And right on cue, data released Friday showed that inflation slowed dramatically this summer.The consensus on Wall Street and in Washington, where, in both places, it is undeniably lucrative to be bullish, is that Monday was the mistake; Tuesday set things right. The believers in this sort of "new economy" school see the sell-off as an overreaction to an economic slowdown in Asia, a development that heralds only a modest drag on the U.S. economy and the earnings of U.S. companies.Why? Only 4% of America's exports land in the more problematic Asian nations--Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines--not nearly enough for troubles there to seriously cut into the earnings of U.S. companies, at least not directly. In fact, the Asian problems might not have even registered with American investors if not for the fact that stock prices in the U.S. are so high that they have become hypersensitive to any and all adverse news. "It doesn't take much to derail a market that has gone to the moon," says Stephen Roach, chief global economist for Morgan Stanley Dean Witter.In Wall Street parlance, Monday's sharp decline was "a market event," meaning that it had little to do with the real economy and everything to do with the sheer unsustainable height of stock prices. That view makes the decline easy to swallow and lends credibility to the wisdom of staying happy and staying in stocks or, as the little guy did Tuesday, buying even more. "There is no reason to think the U.S. stock market is going to go into a bear market," says economist Allen Sinai at Primark Decision Economics. "The U.S. economy is not going to be knocked down by the crisis in Asia."Soothing proclamations like that one came quickly and from many quarters, reverberating throughout brokerage firms, mutual-fund companies, barbershops and shopping malls all week. Mighty IBM announced that its shares were so attractive, it would spend as much as $3.5 billion buying them back. From her perch as co-chair of the investment-policy committee at venerable Goldman Sachs, Abby Joseph Cohen, the most consistently bullish--and correct--market forecaster of the 1990s, declared the sell-off a buying opportunity and promptly raised from 60% to 65% her portfolio's allocation to stocks.No gesture seemed too small with a full-blown panic possibly still ahead. At half time of Monday Night Football, the NASDAQ stock market, a sponsor, stated its closing value as it usually does, but failed to mention, as it usually does, the index's change for the day. In this case, it was down a record 116 points, or 7%.Perhaps the most soothing of all, though, were the carefully chosen words of Greenspan. In his inimitable style, the Fed chief called the swift market decline "a salutary event" that might be just what the economy needs to keep from overheating and allow the '90s expansion to continue for years.Like a snake charmer, Greenspan talked the market into a catatonic state--or was it that traders were merely exhausted? Prices remained somewhat stable the rest of the week, and by Friday the Dow stood 9.9% below its all-time high and few investors seemed much worse for the wear. There were some casualties, among them speculator George Soros, whose company lost $2 billion on Monday. Several Fed presidents joined Greenspan in talking up the economy. "The basics of the U.S. economy are strong," said Cathy Minehan, president of the Boston Federal Reserve Bank. "I see no reason why that should change." Thomas Melzer, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, said the economy was doing "exceptionally well."

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Palin sparks fashion frenzy: Women rush to buy rimless glasses(Sept. 12. 2008)

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Palin sparks fashion frenzy: Women rush to buy rimless glasses(Sept. 12. 2008)

Republican vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin is doing for glasses what “Friends” star Jennifer Aniston did for hair in the early 1990s.The rimless glasses that Palin wore during her acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention are flying off the shelves nationwide, including in Hampton.The fashionable frames, made by the Japanese company Kawasaki, have even caught the notice of Trendhunter.com, a Web site that prides itself on tracking the hottest trends across the globe.The site announced that Palin has fueled what they call “a designer-eyeglasses frenzy.”William “Sully” Sullivan, who owns Hampton Vision Center in downtown Hampton, agreed.“She is bringing life again to the rimless drill-mount fashion,” said Sullivan. “We have been selling the rimless glasses for a while, but sales have slowed down a bit. Now that she is wearing it, it’s become very popular again.”The shop, located at 28 Depot Square, is currently sold out of the Kawasaki frames, but they should be back in stock within the next week or so.Sullivan said a lot of people came into his shop in the last few weeks asking specifically about the "Sarah Palin glasses.”The attraction, he says, is that she looks good in eyewear.“It’s kind of the rage right now,” he said. “People are seeing it on her and they are curious about what she is wearing. They see how good it looks on her and wonder what it would look like on them.”He doesn’t remember this much hoopla over a frame since former MSNBC anchor Ashleigh Banfield caused a stir with her square-rimmed Lafont eyeglasses.The newly dubbed Palin frames, not including lenses, sell in the range of $300 to $500.Rimless glasses are available for both men and women and the vision center has several different types of frames at varying prices.“When they first came out, they became popular because they were different and they were lightweight,” Sullivan said. “It also gives the appearance with anti-reflective coating that you’re not wearing glasses at all.”But the store owner warned that not everyone may want to jump on the Sarah Palin eyeglass bandwagon.“Not everyone’s face shape can wear what she is wearing,” he said. “But if not, we can put them in something similar that suits their face shape in style.”

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Dollar Bill On Floor Sends Wall Street Into Frenzy(October 22, 2008)

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Dollar Bill On Floor Sends Wall Street Into Frenzy(October 22, 2008)

Wall Street investors experienced a sudden surge in optimism Tuesday when, after six tumultuous weeks that saw record drops in the Dow Jones industrial average, a $1 bill was spotted on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.The dollar bill was discovered in the northwest corner of the trading floor at approximately 12:05 p.m., and its condition was reported as “crinkled, but real.” Word of the tangible denomination of U.S. currency spread quickly across the NYSE, sending traders into a frenzied rush of shouting, arm-flailing, hooting, hollering, and, according to eyewitnesses, at least one dog pile.“With credit frozen and the commercial paper market poised on the brink of collapse, this is the most promising development I’ve seen on Wall Street in months,” said floor trader Tim Formato, one of hundreds who gathered around the $1 bill and excitedly called their clients to inform them that they were looking at actual U.S. tender. “I think I touched it.”According to witnesses, the trading floor was soon abuzz with energy, as traders pointed at the dollar and repeatedly shouted “Look!” and “Money!” A proposal to divide the $1 note into 1,300 equal pieces and distribute them amongst investors was considered, but ultimately rejected. Early reports estimate the dollar may have passed through as many as 65 hands before disappearing in the late afternoon.The bill’s absence, however, did not deter the growing enthusiasm from those on the trading floor. By 2:15 p.m., more than 60,000 shares had beenpurchased in the new publicly traded asset, DLR, after brokers placed a flurry of calls advising their investors to buy into the booming single-dollar market.By the close of day, economists were estimating the dollar bill’s net worth at just under $270 million.“We couldn’t be in a better situation right now,” trader Patrick Kady said. “Unless of course it had been a euro.”However, some financial advisers are warning against the rampant speculation the dollar has caused on Wall Street. Many have cautioned investors not to make rash decisions, such as liquidating all their low-risk government bonds in order to sniff the green paper bill for just a minute.“I bet it smells like rose petals,” mutual funds specialist Ken Stoute said. “My friend’s friend Tim Formato? He’s on the board at Westminster Securities and he says he touched it. He said it was warm and soft and wonderful. He said he knows where it is now, and I can put in an option on seeing it tomorrow for only $85.”Since the appearance of the dollar, the Dow has spiked an impressive 993 points—its largest gain ever. Initial numbers are showing the most sizable rises in technology stocks, a trend some are attributing to Microsoft’s CFO Chris Liddell, who toured the trading floor Tuesday morning with the bill stuck to his left shoe.The overall projection for the market following the incident has been positive, with many analysts claiming that the $1 bill may be an indication of other spare change lying around. This, coupled with reports out of Europe that there is a German college student who has not yet hit her credit card limit this month, could be enough to stabilize the Dow and jump-start the global economy once again.

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Fed Makes Emergency 0.75% Rate Cut(Jan. 22, 2008)

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Fed Makes Emergency 0.75% Rate Cut(Jan. 22, 2008)

The Federal Reserve, responding to an international stock sell-off and the likelihood of a sharp drop in America on Tuesday morning, cut its benchmark interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point.The Federal Open Market Committee lowered its target for the federal funds rate on overnight loans between banks to 3.5 percent, from 4.25 percent.In a statement, the Fed said: “The committee took this action in view of a weakening of the economic outlook and increasing downside risks to growth. While strains in short-term funding markets have eased somewhat, broader financial market conditions have continued to deteriorate and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households.”“Moreover,” the statement continued, “incoming information indicates a deepening of the housing contraction as well as some softening in labor markets.”In a related action, the Fed approved a 75 basis-point decrease in the discount rate, to 4 percent.Within minutes after the announcement, trading in stock-index futures, which had been presaging a deep slide on American stock exchanges Tuesday, retraced much of their earlier declines, which had been driven by a second sour day in Asia and Europe.Stock markets across Asia plunged even farther and faster on Tuesday than they had on Monday, as anxious sellers dumped huge numbers of shares on worries that an economic slowdown in the United States could drag down growth around the world.The European stock markets initially followed their Asian counterparts lower, plunging at the opening and then see-sawing back and forth in frenzied trading as investors looked to the start on Wall Street for direction. After the Fed announcement, they had made up those losses and moved into positive territory. But the rate cut was too late for Asian markets, which had already closed.A decade after a credit crisis in Southeast Asia triggered an “Asian contagion” of stock market declines around the world, the credit crisis in the United States is now producing an “American contagion” to which no stock market seems immune.Heavy selling hit each Asian and European stock market as soon as it opened. Some of Asia’s easternmost exchanges, which had closed on Monday before the sharpest declines occurred in India and then Europe, suffered particularly steep drops.

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Energy costs drive February wholesale prices up 1%; biggest jump since 1990(March 16, 2000)

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Energy costs drive February wholesale prices up 1%; biggest jump since 1990(March 16, 2000)

U.S. producer prices posted their biggest monthly jump in almost 10 years in February, reflecting a surge in crude oil prices, the government reported Thursday. However, the core rate, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, advanced at a more moderate pace. The Producer Price Index jumped 1 percent last month, the Labor Department said, exceeding the 0.6 percent increase expected and above January's flat reading. It was the biggest jump in the main index since October 1990. The core rate, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.3 percent, in line with expectations and reversing January's 0.2 percent drop.Stripping out huge advances in energy and tobacco prices, inflation posted only a moderate advance last month -- suggesting to financial markets that the Federal Reserve's inflation-fighting interest rate increases may not come as fast and furious as many had been anticipating. "Oil prices are important for the economy, but there continues to be no evidence that these increases are being monetized and passed on into the general structure of prices," said John Ryding, senior economist with Bear Stearns Inc. "We continue to expect that the Fed will boost rates by only 25 basis points at next week's (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting."The Dow Jones industrial average -- comprised of 30 companies that are generally more sensitive to rising interest rates -- took off at the opening bell as investors concluded that earnings will not be as significantly impacted by higher borrowing costs. Bonds also gained ground as investors gained reassurance that wholesale inflation remains subdued -- at least for the time being.Tame costs on the production line typically mean stable consumer prices, because producers do not have the rising costs that are typically passed on to buyers. Fed officials meet next Tuesday in Washington to discuss monetary policy and the direction of short-term lending rates. Most Wall Street analysts expect the Fed will wrench up its benchmark rate for overnight loans between banks by another quarter point. That would be the fifth quarter-point increase since June. The rate now stands at 5.75 percent. After today's numbers, some analysts expect the Fed may not have to press so hard on the brakes to slow down the economy. While most expect the U.S. economy to post growth upwards of 5 percent in the first three months of the year, very little evidence of accelerating inflation has emerged -- the main reason behind the Fed's recent spate of rate hikes. ABS brakes? "Most people were afraid that we'd start to see some inflation, but I don't think there's much here," said Robert Brusca, chief economist with Ecobest Consulting. "The Fed still has its foot on brakes and will keep tapping them at regular intervals, but perhaps not as much as investors had been expecting." (369KB WAV) (369KB AIFF)Indeed, almost all of February's gains came in the form of rising energy and tobacco prices. Energy prices for producers jumped 5.2 percent in February, the biggest increase since October 1990, reflecting a whopping 30.6 percent surge in the cost of home heating oil and a 12.9 percent jump in prices at the pumps for gasoline. In January, producers' energy costs rose 0.7 percent. Those increases mirrored the recent surge in oil prices, which have almost tripled in price to as high as $34 a barrel in the past 14 months, reflecting concerns that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would not boost its output next month to prevent global shortages. Tobacco prices, meanwhile, jumped 5.6 percent, more than reversing January's 4.2 percent drop. Cigarette prices rose 6.3 percent as manufacturers such as Philip Morris Cos. (MO: Research, Estimates) raised U.S. cigarette prices to distributors by 13 cents a pack, or about 7 percent. New York State also boosted taxes on cigarettes last month, raising the price on a single pack of 20 cigarettes to around $4.50 from around $4.Where's the inflation? In other categories, food prices increased a moderate 0.4 percent in February, after rising 0.1 percent in January. Prices for new computers fell 3.3 percent, car prices fell 1.2 percent, and prescription drug prices declined 0.2 percent. Intermediate goods prices rose 0.8 percent last month, while crude goods prices rose 4.2 percent. So why aren't prices rising? For one, there's productivity. Advances in technology have made companies better at producing and delivering wholesale goods cheaply and efficiently without raising their costs, ensuring prices at the retail level stay the same or even decline in some cases. Worker productivity advanced at a 6.4 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter.Another reason is competition -- from e-commerce companies on the Internet, from government deregulation of industries such as electricity and telecommunications, and from overseas firms who not only produce goods cheaply, but sell them to American producers in currencies that are worth less than the U.S. dollars those producers use to pay for them. All that has led to increased output without higher prices -- a phenomenon that has framed the U.S. economy for more than three years, said Rob Palombi, a markets analyst with Standard & Poor's MMS. What's more, "the U.S. dollar has been on a firming path against the yen and the euro, which should help offset inflation risks on imported goods going forward." After reaching near par against the yen in January, the dollar has risen to above 106 yen. It has also made steady ground against the euro, with the euro falling below parity in late January to trade around the 96-cent level.

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Changes in the Business Cycle(May 14, 1999)

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Changes in the Business Cycle(May 14, 1999)

In December 1998, the current expansion reached a milestone – it became the longest peacetime expansion in post-World War II U.S. economic history, surpassing the record previously held by the 1982-1990 expansion. In fact, if the expansion continues through January 2000, it will tie the expansion associated with the Vietnam War as the longest expansion since our records of such things start in 1854.The experience of the U.S. during the last twenty years has been quite remarkable. The long economic expansion of the 1980s was followed by a relatively short recession in 1990-91, and the economy has been expanding ever since. The U.S. has experienced only 8 months of recession in the last 16 years. The most visible sign of the continued expansion is provided by the unemployment rate. For the past year, it has remained below 4.5 percent, hovering at levels not seen since the early 1970s.Not surprisingly, the long expansion has raised questions about the whole notion of the business cycle. Extended periods of expansion always lead a few commentators to speculate that the conventional business cycle is dead. In 1969, for example, a conference volume titled “Is the Business Cycle Obsolete?” was published just as the 1961-69 expansion came to an end and the economy entered a recession. With two record-setting expansions in a row, and the current one still going, it is to be expected that the notion of regular business cycles is again being questioned. The current favorite hypothesis is that a “new economy” has emerged in which our old understanding of business cycle forces is no longer relevant.While few economists believe we have seen the end of business cycles (just look at Asia and Latin America!), the views of economists about business cycles have changed. These changes reflect real changes in the U.S. economy, changes in our ability to measure economic developments, and changes in economic theory.Dating business cyclesAlthough virtually all data used to analyze the U.S. economy are produced by some agency of the federal government, the standard dates identifying business cycle peaks and troughs are determined by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The NBER is a private, non-profit research organization whose research affiliates include many of the world’s most influential economists.The NBER defines a recession as “a recurring period of decline in total output, income, employment, and trade, usually lasting from six months to a year, and marked by widespread contractions in many sectors of the economy.” Recessions are, therefore, macroeconomic in nature. A severe decline in an important industry or sector of the economy may involve great hardships for the workers and firms in that industry, but a recession is more than that. It is a period in which many sectors of the economy experience declines. Recessions are sometimes said to occur if total output declines for two consecutive quarters. However, this is not the formal definition used by the NBER.Business cycle peaks and troughs cannot be identified immediately when they occur for two reasons. First, recessions and expansions are, by definition, recurring periods of either decline or growth. One quarter of declining GDP would not necessarily indicate that the economy had entered a recession, just as one quarter of positive growth need not signal that a recession had ended. The recession of 1981-82 provides a good example. Real GDP declined from the third quarter of 1981 to the fourth quarter, and then again from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of 1982. It then grew in the second quarter of 1982. The recession was not over, however, as GDP again declined in the third quarter of 1982. Only beginning with the fourth quarter did real output begin a sustained period of growth.Second, the information that is needed to determine whether the economy has entered a recession or moved into an expansion phase is only available with a time lag. Delays in data collection and revisions in the preliminary estimates of economic activity mean the NBER must wait some time before a clear picture of the economy’s behavior is available. For example, it was not until December 1992 that the NBER announced that the trough ending the last recession had occurred in March 1991, a delay of 20 months.Expansions and contractions since 1854U.S. business cycle peaks and troughs going back to the trough in December 1854 have been dated by the NBER. Based on their dates, we can ask whether basic business cycle facts have changed over time.One important aspect of a recession or an expansion is its duration. The lengths of recessions since 1854 are shown in Figure 1. Several interesting facts are apparent from the figure. First, measured solely by duration, the Great Depression of 1929-1933 pales in comparison with the 1873-1879 depression that lasted over five years. And the 1882-1885 recession lasted nearly as long as the Great Depression. Some lasting images of American history survive from this period, including the great debate over silver coinage.Second, while the Great Depression was not the longest period of economic decline, it does appear to represent a watershed; no recession since has lasted even half as long as the 1929-1933 contraction.Third, it is not just that recessions have been shorter on average in the post-World War II era, they have all been much shorter. Of the 19 recessions before the Great Depression, only three lasted less than a year; of the 11 recessions since the Great Depression, only three have lasted more than a year.Figure 2 shows the duration of economic expansions since 1854. Darker bars mark wartime expansions. Based on duration, the changing nature of expansions is not quite as evident as for contractions. But of the 21 expansions prior to World War II, only three lasted more than three years. In contrast, of the 10 expansions since, only three have lasted less than three years. Even if the wartime expansions associated with Korea and Vietnam are ignored, post-World War II expansions have averaged 49 months, compared to an average of only 24 months for pre-World War II peacetime expansions.Is the economy more stable?A simple comparison of the duration of expansions and contractions does suggest the U.S. economy has performed better in the post-World War II era. Recessions are shorter, expansions are longer. These changes strongly suggest that business cycles have changed over time. However, a simple comparison of duration cannot tell us about the severity of recessions or the strength of expansions. This would be better measured by the decline in output that occurs in a recession or the growth that occurs in an expansion. However, most studies that examine how volatile economic activity has been do conclude that output has been somewhat more stable in the post-World War II era.This conclusion, however, is not universally accepted. There are three reasons that comparing the business cycle over time is difficult.First, the quality of economic data has improved tremendously over the past 100 years. If the earlier data on the U.S. economy contained more measurement error because the quality of our statistics was lower, the measured path of the economy may show some fluctuations that simply reflect random errors in output data. This will make the earlier period look more unstable. In addition, earlier data on economic output tended to provide only a partial coverage of the economy. For example, better statistics were available on industrial output than on services. Since services tend to fluctuate less over a business cycle, the earlier data undoubtedly exaggerated the extent of fluctuations in the aggregate economy.Second, NBER dating methods have not remained consistent. Romer (1994) argues that the dating of pre-World War II business cycles was done in a manner that tended to date peaks earlier and troughs later than the post-World War II methods would have done. This contributes to the impression that prewar recessions were longer and expansions shorter.Third, the economy is increasingly becoming a producer of services, and productivity in the service sector is often difficult to measure. In general, the tremendous changes experienced in recent years associated with the information revolution are likely to affect the cyclical behavior of the economy in ways not yet fully understood.Implications for macroeconomic policyUnderstanding changes in the nature of the business cycle is important for policymakers. Most central banks view contributing to a stable economy as one of their responsibilities. Promoting stable growth has important benefits, and reducing the frequency or severity of recessions is desirable as part of a policy to ensure employment opportunities for all workers. Preventing expansions from generating inflation is also important since once inflation gets started, high unemployment is usually necessary to bring it back down.One might think, then, that policy designed to stabilize the economy should attempt to eliminate fluctuations entirely. This is not the case, for a very important reason. A business cycle represents fluctuations in the economy around full-employment output, but an economy’s full-employment output, often called potential GDP, can also change. It grows over time due to population growth, growth in the economy’s capital stock, and technological change. Developments in economic theory have led to a better understanding of how an economy adjusts to various disturbances. These adjustments can cause potential GDP to fluctuate, and it would be inappropriate for policy to attempt to offset these fluctuations. Identifying fluctuations in potential GDP from cyclical fluctuations can be difficult, however, as the current economic expansion illustrates. Is the economy in danger of overheating, risking a revival of inflation? Or have changes in the economy increased potential GDP?While the U.S. economy has enjoyed two consecutive record expansions, a longer historical perspective does help to remind us that business cycles are unlikely to be gone for good. Despite talk of the “new economy,” all economies experience ups and downs that are reflected in swings in unemployment, capacity utilization, and overall economic output. Though changes in the structure of the economy may alter the extent of these fluctuations, they are unlikely to eliminate them.In addition, the business cycle record is not independent of policy decisions. The economy may not have changed fundamentally; perhaps we have simply benefited from good economic policy (see Taylor 1998 for a discussion along these lines). With less successful policies, recessions could become more frequent and longer again. The Great Depression, for example, was prolonged by, among other things, poor economic and monetary policy decisions, and the recessions of the early 1980s were the price of policy mistakes in the 1970s that allowed inflation to rise significantly (Romer 1999). Thus, one reason business cycles can change, even if the underlying economy or source of disturbances haven’t, is because policymakers do a better (or worse) job of stabilizing the economy.

Strong Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

United States: A hotly contested election could lead to economic overheating(31 / 10 / 2024)

Sell

453870

TIGER India Nifty 50

United States: A hotly contested election could lead to economic overheating(31 / 10 / 2024)

An election with uncertain resultOn November 5th, Americans will head to the polls to decide between former President Donald Trump (Republican) and sitting Vice President Kamala Harris (Democrat). The outcome hinges on a few key "swing states" where no clear favorite has emerged. In addition to the presidency, control of Congress is at stake: Republicans need only two seats to reclaim the Senate, while Democrats need a net gain of four to take back the House. A divided Congress is likely, though a trifecta – control of both chambers and the presidency by one party – remains possible.Protectionism and trade risksA second Trump presidency would likely escalate protectionist trade policies, including substantial tariffs on imports, particularly from China. Trump has already pledged a 60% tariff on Chinese imports and broader tariffs on U.S. allies, which could severely disrupt global supply chains and raise costs for American businesses.In contrast, Harris would likely continue a more strategic and measured approach to trade, focusing on targeted restrictions, especially concerning China. However, trade tensions are expected to persist, especially in the technology and energy sectors.Diverging fiscal visionsHarris and Trump present significantly different fiscal policies. Harris aims to raise taxes on corporations and the wealthy, offering tax relief to lower-income families. Her platform emphasizes public investment in green infrastructure and social programs, seeking to reduce income inequality.Trump, for his part, wants to extend and broaden the tax cuts he introduced in 2017 and is also considering a cut in corporation tax to 15%. Furthermore, his approach is based on deregulating key sectors to promote economic growth, at the risk of increasing the public deficit.Inflation and economic uncertaintyBoth candidates’ platforms involve substantial public spending, raising concerns about inflation and interest rates. While household consumption is solid, a spike in inflation triggered by the implementation of either candidate's election manifesto could force the Federal Reserve to adopt a more restrictive monetary policy, thereby raising interest rates.Despite these risks, the U.S. dollar remains globally strong, ensuring favorable financing conditions for the country. However, should the Fed's independence come under threat in a second Trump term, confidence in U.S. monetary policy could waver, increasing global economic uncertainty.

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453870

TIGER India Nifty 50

What impending recession? New survey shows most people think they will be better off next year(Dec. 10, 2019)

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133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

What impending recession? New survey shows most people think they will be better off next year(Dec. 10, 2019)

Economists are beginning to predict a near-term economic future that, until recently, would have been considered inconceivable, or at the very least implausible: The idea that the more than decade-old bull market still has room to run.A new survey from the National Association for Business Economics found that economic experts think there is less than a 50 percent chance that a recession will take place next year, and a roughly one-in-three chance that the economy will remain positive at least through mid-2021.NABE survey panelists said there is a 21 percent of a recession taking place by the middle of next year, a 43 percent chance of recession by the end of next year, and a 34 percent chance that a recession won’t occur until after mid-2021 at the earliest.In an interview with CNBC, Fidelity Investments director of global macro Jurrien Timmer suggested that the current state of the expansion could be, “a mini-reflation wave within an ongoing late cycle."I think in many ways, the way the economy has evolved in the past 12 months has been more positive than expected,” said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.com. “If you asked people at the beginning of the expansion if it would’ve lasted more than a decade, most people would have said not,” he said. “This is one of the consequences of slower growth for longer.”Hamrick said the Federal Reserve reversing its rate-hiking trajectory and choosing instead to lower rates three times over the course of 2019 played a big role in reversing the market plunge that took place last December. “I think that is one thing that is huge and in many ways it was an admission by the Fed that it was wrong,” he said.Another key component is the job market, according to experts. The NABE survey was conducted before Friday’s surprisingly strong jobs report, which found that the economy added a robust 266,000 jobs in November, higher than the 187,000 economists anticipated.“The one thing that people point to all the time is the hiring component,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group. “I think that’s the real takeaway here. It’s more about the strength in hiring than anything else. As long as the labor market stays tight, then recession gets pushed off further and further,” he said.Studies show that ordinary Americans’ sense of financial security is tightly tied to the job market, and a new Fidelity Investments survey conducted in October found that people also feel optimistic: More than three out of four of the more than 3,000 surveyed, including 85 percent of millennial and Gen Z respondents, said they think they will be better off financially next year than they have been this year.

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Don’t bet on a recession in 2020(Dec 27th 2019)

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Don’t bet on a recession in 2020(Dec 27th 2019)

PAUL SAMUELSON was the rare sort of economist who understood that a well-crafted joke can have a greater impact than pages of complex maths. One of his famous quips was that declines in the stockmarket have predicted nine of the last five recessions. The joke dates from the mid-1960s. But it may well turn out to have particular relevance for financial markets in 2020.Samuelson was one of the architects of the efficient-market hypothesis, which holds that stock prices, like oil prices and currencies, cannot be predicted. That is largely because such prices already have forecasts about events in politics and economics embedded in them. To predict the markets is to make forecasts about forecasts. If it were easy, we would all be rich.Even so, it is wrong to think that all such attempts are futile. Useful things can still be said about how the markets might behave in 2020. To start with, we have a handle on the immediate outlook for the economy. Leading indicators of the world economy point to a continued slowdown. Forecasts for GDP growth are being revised down. And fears of a recession in America are growing. As such worries take firmer hold, share prices are likely to suffer for a while—perhaps quite badly. Yet there is reason to believe that recession fears will recede later in the year. The big surprise in 2020 may well be how quickly the mood in markets starts to recover.Today’s investor anxiety is clearly evident in the thirst for rich-world government bonds, the safest of assets. In Germany and Switzerland, interest rates are negative not just on overnight deposits but also on bonds that mature in the distant future. Yields on ten-year bonds have dipped below short-term interest rates. In the past, this has been a reliable signal that a recession is coming. A survey conducted by Bank of America finds that two-fifths of fund managers expect one in the next year. The same proportion thinks the trade war between America and China will never be resolved. Surveys of business confidence are similarly gloomy.So the big question for markets in 2020 is whether there is something on the horizon that can spur a little optimism. Don’t expect much good news in the early part of the year; signs that the slump in business sentiment is starting to infect the confidence of consumers are more likely. As recession fears build to a peak, stock prices will come under greater pressure. Long-term bond yields will fall further in America and plunge deeper into negative territory in Europe.Yet misery is rarely eternal. There are forces at work to counter it. One is monetary policy. Sceptics are right to point out that with interest rates already so low, central banks are short of ammunition with which to fire up the economy. But interest-rate cuts in America and China, and bond purchases by the European Central Bank, will at least keep credit flowing smoothly to businesses and consumers. That will put a floor under stock prices.It will probably take more than that to lift overall spirits in financial markets. But it would be unwise to bet against such a revival by the end of 2020. If government-bond yields fall further, politicians will wake up to the logic of economic stimulus by fiscal means—tax cuts and spending increases, funded by borrowing. Such policies fell out of fashion because their implementation is often ill-timed: it takes an age for politicians to agree on anything. But as recession fears grow, the pressure on them will build. As investors start to price in aggressive fiscal stimulus, stock prices will revive and bond yields will start to rise. As Samuelson noted a half-century ago, the markets sometimes predict disasters that don’t happen; 2020 could be one of those years.

Sell

133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Economists’ fears of a 2020 recession in the US surge(June 6, 2019)

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453870

TIGER India Nifty 50

Economists’ fears of a 2020 recession in the US surge(June 6, 2019)

America’s business leaders are growing more worried that the United States will enter a recession by the end of 2020. Their primary fear: protectionist trade policy.That is the topline finding of a report released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics. The survey, based on responses by 53 economists, is a leading barometer of where the US business community thinks the economy is headed.“Increased trade protectionism is considered the primary downwide risk to growth by a majority of the respondents,” Gregory Daco, chief US economist for Oxford Economics, said in a statement. The report found what it called a “surge” in recession fears among the economists.The report comes as the United States ratchets up its trade war with China and has gone after other major trading partners, including Mexico and India.The risk of recession happening soon remains low but will “rise rapidly” next year. The survey’s respondents said the risk of recession starting in 2019 is only 15% but 60% by the end of 2020. About a third of respondents forecast a recession will begin halfway through next year.According to the survey, the median forecast for gross domestic product growth in the last quarter of 2020 was 1.9%. That would be a big drop from the most recent estimate of current US economic growth — 3.1% in the first three months of 2019.The United States is probably somewhere in the last stages of an epic run of economic growth that began in 2009. Dramatic and coordinated responses by the Federal Reserve, Congress and the Obama administration helped pull the country up from the Great Recession.President Donald Trump, who took the reins of the US economy from Barack Obama in 2017, has aggressively tried to reorder the US position on global trade. He has picked prominent fights with China and Europe and has threatened tariffs on Mexico over illegal immigration and India over access to its markets.Other notable findings from the National Association for Business Economics:– 56% of respondents cited increasingly protectionist trade policy as the greatest risk to the US economy in 2019. Separately, 88% pointed to US trade policy, and retaliation by other nations, for why they lowered their GDP growth forecasts.– 14% believe a “substantial” decline in the stock market, and 10% feel a slowdown in global growth, are the biggest risks to the US economy.– Business spending will moderate this year and next after growing a strong 6.9% in 2018.

Sell

453870

TIGER India Nifty 50

The Next U.S. Recession Will Start in 2020, Survey Says0(May 10, 2018)

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453870

TIGER India Nifty 50

The Next U.S. Recession Will Start in 2020, Survey Says0(May 10, 2018)

More than half of the 105 real estate experts and economists in the quarterly survey by housing data provider Zillow and research firm Pulsenomics LLC point to “monetary policy as the likeliest cause.”Fed officials have signaled at least three rate increases this year. A year ago. a geopolitical crisis was seen as the most likely cause of the next recession by survey panelists.In the meantime, the housing market is expected to see stronger price appreciation than forecast a year ago with home values rising 5.5 percent to a median of $220,800 in 2018, according to Zillow and Pulsenomics. Last year, forecasts called for a 3.7 percent gain.A separate Fannie Mae survey forecasts home prices will rise 3.9 percent over the next 12 months.

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453870

TIGER India Nifty 50

Is the Labor Market Overheating?(APRIL 1, 2022)

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133690

Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Is the Labor Market Overheating?(APRIL 1, 2022)

Annmarie Fertoli: US employers are hiring at a brisk pace and the unemployment rate is nearing pre pandemic levels. But there are some worries, namely that record high job openings and higher wages could further fuel inflation. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed concerns about that earlier this month when the Central Bank moved to raise interest rates for the first time since 2018. What does the latest jobs report mean for the Feds path going forward? I'm Annmarie Fertoli from the Wall Street Journal, and I'm joined now by Wall Street Journal, Chief Economics Correspondent, Nick Timiraos. Hi, Nick. Thanks for being here.Nick Timiraos: Thanks for having me.Annmarie Fertoli: Nick, overall we saw strong hiring last month, but this is actually something that could pose a challenge for the Fed, which is closely eyeing whether or not this economy right now is overheating. Can you explain those dynamics for us?Nick Timiraos: Well, the Fed is concerned about inflation running too high, and initially the Fed thought that was primarily happening because of a shortage of goods leading to extreme price pressures for a high handful of things like used cars and new cars. But the concern now is that inflation is broadening to include a broader range of goods and also services. And if you think about the services that we purchase, whether it's haircuts, or restaurant meals, those are things where labor is the main expense. And when you begin to see pressures driving wages higher, that adds to the Fed's concern that inflation is going to be harder to get out of the economy than if it were just rising because of some idiosyncratic price increases for things like used cars.Annmarie Fertoli: Now, how does the Fed usually handle these dueling mandates of achieving maximum employment while keeping inflation near the target 2%? We know that inflation hasn't been near that Fed target for quite some time now.Nick Timiraos: Well, sometimes as you note, the mandates can be in conflict. Right now, they're not. Right now, you have very strong employment and very high inflation. And the Fed will look at that and say, "Obviously we need to raise interest rates." Right now, interest rates are just below a half percentage point and the Fed thinks that a neutral rate, which would be where you're no longer providing stimulus, but you're not necessarily stepping on the brakes. They think that's somewhere between 2 and 3%. We're nowhere near their estimates of what a neutral rate would be. Right now, the Fed is on a clear path to get interest rates up this year to something around 2% give or take. The question's going to be, what do you do after that if the economy's still standing strong and inflation's still coming in high? Inflation results when there is an imbalance of supply and demand. The Fed can't do anything about supply of oil, shortages of cars. They can't fix the supply side of the economy. The only way for them to really bring supply and demand into balance in the short run is to reduce demand. And that's what would begin to happen once they get interest rates to neutral. If they decide to keep raising interest rates, they would be trying to deliberately slow down the economy, destroying demand, weakening the job market in order to get inflation to come down.Annmarie Fertoli: We know that the Fed is planning to raise interest rates several times this year. What does the latest data from the jobs report mean for how Fed officials might proceed at their next meeting in May?Nick Timiraos: The big question at the May meeting is not whether the Fed will raise interest rates, it's by how much. Traditionally, when the Fed raises interest rates, they move in just a quarter percentage point increment, but there are times when the data might call for a larger increase, a half percentage point increase. Now, the Fed has not raised interest rates by a half percentage point since 2000, but we haven't been in an environment where inflation's this high and where the unemployment rate is this low. When the unemployment rate fell to this half century low level in 2018 and 2019, inflation was at 2%. The big question now is really will the Fed do a supersized half percentage point interest rate increase in May? And the report from the Labor Department here gives them a green light to do a half point increase if they want to.Annmarie Fertoli: And what does the latest jobs report mean for the Fed's plans to unwind its $9 trillion asset portfolio?Nick Timiraos: The Fed has two tools that they've used to provide stimulus, which is cutting interest rates during the crisis. They cut rates to zero and then after that they purchase longer term bonds and mortgage backed securities, again, to push rates even lower. Now, as they're unwinding their stimulus, they're raising interest rates, but they're also preparing at their May meeting to announce a plan to shrink the asset holdings to allow that stimulus to reverse. And it's very likely that the Fed will begin to do that. And it's a double barreled form of policy tightening. It's not something that the Fed has a lot of experience with because they've only done this one other time after they expanded their asset portfolio. After the 2008 recession, they unwound it a little bit in 2017, 18, and 19. Now they're talking about more aggressively running down the securities holdings in that portfolio. It's very much going to be trial and error, wait and see, Fed Chair J Powell is talking about being humble and nimble. And that suggests that the Fed is doing something they don't have a lot of experience doing, which is to bring inflation down when it's way above its target, possibly raising rates a lot more than they have in the last two decades all while shrinking their asset portfolio.Annmarie Fertoli: All right. That's Wall Street Journal Chief Economics Correspondent, Nick Timiraos. Nick, thanks so much for your time today.

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Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

The World Economy Risks Turning Too Hot to Handle(2018년 3월 16일)

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Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

The World Economy Risks Turning Too Hot to Handle(2018년 3월 16일)

The world economy risks growing too fast for its own good.Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers meet next week in Argentina amid the broadest and strongest economic upswing since 2011, with President Donald Trump’s tax cuts adding a dose of accelerant. They convene days after the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development raised its forecasts to show global growth of 3.9 percent this year and next.For policy makers and investors, the key questions are how much faster can the world grow -- and do they even want it to if overheating means an inflationary boom is followed by another bust.Global growth has only matched or bettered 3.9 percent 8 times since 1990 and HSBC Holdings Plc notes every synchronized upswing since then presaged an abrupt shock. The peak of 5.6 percent in 2007 was followed by the financial crisis a year later.“When lots of countries are growing strongly, the global economy is at its most vulnerable, thanks to heightened interest rate and financial risks,” said Stephen King, senior economic adviser at HSBC.In a study of 50 economies published last month, King observed that the credit-crunch recession hit the U.S. in 1990 after a period of robust global demand and then bond markets collapsed in 1994 following another growth spurt. The next boom in 1997 came before the Asia crisis and then the world was buoyant from 2004 to 2007 until the worst recession since the Great Depression.Signs are already appearing that activity is now looking toppish as the Federal Reserve and other central banks tighten monetary policy, China curbs borrowing and Trump implements tariffs. Citigroup Inc. calculates data in major economies are currently undershooting forecasts by the most since September and measures of manufacturing confidence appear to be cresting, albeit at lofty levels.“Even though the sun still shines in the global economy, there are more clouds on the horizon,” International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said in a blog post addressed to G-20 policy makers. “Think of the growing concerns over trade tensions, the recent spike in volatility in financial markets, and more uncertain geopolitics.”The fear of a trade war will be high on the agenda in Buenos Aires, with Bloomberg Economics estimating such an event could wipe $470 billion off the world economy by 2020.Read more on the risks associated with a global trade warInvestors seem placated for now. Global stocks were roiled in January amid concern a pickup in U.S. inflation would force central banks to react, yet subsequent data showed price pressures remain muted even as companies keep hiring.“Overheating -- in the form of a sharp pick-up in inflation -- is still a good way into the future,” Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, said of the U.S.In a report to clients on Thursday, Nomura Holdings Inc. economist Andrew Cates wrote that there is “plenty of scope for this cycle to mature” because tightening labor markets and stronger demand should prompt companies to invest and productivity to advance, allowing the global expansion to continue.There could still be trouble ahead.In the U.S., tax cuts and government spending are stoking demand but could end up provoking the Fed into raising interest rates more aggressively than policy makers now plan, risking another fallout in financial markets. Unemployment is already at 4.1 percent and could fall further.Fitch Ratings said on Thursday that “booming” global conditions will trigger central banks to raise interest rates.“The Fed will need to move rates materially higher over the next few years to head off overheating risk two to three years out,” said Krishna Guha, vice chairman at Evercore ISI in Washington.Still, incoming White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow urged the Fed not to “overdo it” in raising interest rates: “Growth is not inflationary. Just let it rip, for heaven’s sake,” he told CNBC in an interview.

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Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Fed chief Powell says no evidence U.S. economy overheating(March 2, 2018)

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Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Fed chief Powell says no evidence U.S. economy overheating(March 2, 2018)

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Thursday the U.S. economy does not appear to be running hot, even as the influential head of the New York Fed suggested a faster pace of interest rate increases may still be in the offing for 2018."There is no evidence the economy is overheating," Powell told the Senate Banking Committee in his second appearance in Congress this week, saying he expects the Fed to stick with a "gradual" pace of monetary policy tightening.But in remarks at an event in Sao Paulo, Brazil, New York Fed President William Dudley said "gradual" could still apply to a scenario in which borrowing costs were raised four times this year, instead of the three moves Fed policymakers projected when they issued their last set of economic projections in December.Yet the Fed officials' comments were overshadowed by President Donald Trump's announcement of a plan to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, the sort of move Fed policymakers have warned about since the Republican took office last year.Such action, and the risk of retaliation by trading partners, could cloud the U.S. economic outlook and derail the global recovery currently benefiting the United States.Traders of federal funds futures trimmed bets on a fourth rate increase this year after Trump's announcement. U.S. stock indexes fell sharply, with the S&P 500 <.SPX> index down about 1.3 percent in a third consecutive day of losses.In his testimony, Powell described trade as a "net positive" while conceding it created some losers in the economy, and said "the tariff approach is not the best approach. The best approach is to deal directly with the people who are affected rather than falling back on tariffs."The Fed is expected to increase rates at its March 20-21 policy meeting. Policymakers will also issue fresh forecasts that will indicate whether the core of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee has shifted its view.'APPROPRIATE PATH'Powell's twin appearances this week showed that he and the rest of the Fed are wrestling over how to square an economy that is strong on many levels, and possibly about to get at least a short-term boost from tax cuts, but still lacks the kind of inflation and wage gains that would prompt faster Fed action on rates.To some policymakers, the absence of price pressures means the Fed should stand back, wait for wages to gain steam, and give workers a chance to make up ground lost due to the 2007-2009 financial crisis and its aftermath even at the risk of faster inflation in the future."Similar numbers of participants see upside risk to the outlook and downside risks on inflation," analysts from Barclays wrote in a recent note. "If policy is to move faster, or slower, one of these groups needs to gain additional members."Earlier on Thursday, the Commerce Department reported that consumer prices increased in January, with a gauge of underlying inflation posting its largest gain in 12 months. The report added to the sense that inflation is moving up to the Fed's 2 percent target.In prepared remarks for his testimony this week, Powell pledged to "strike a balance" between avoiding any rapid rise in prices while keeping the recovery on track in the hope that the tight job market finally produces significant wage gains.He also acknowledged, in response to lawmakers' questions, that the labor market may have room to strengthen further, given uncertainty about the level of "full employment," a concept generally associated with faster rising wages and prices.Though the current U.S. unemployment rate of 4.1 percent was "at or near or even below" many estimates of the full employment rate, "we don't see any evidence of a decisive move up in wages ... Nothing in that suggests to me that wage inflation is at a point of acceleration," Powell told the Senate panel on Thursday.Powell said risks are "more two-sided" now than early in the recovery, adding that "the thing we don't want to have happen is to get behind the curve."But he said at this point the Fed could continue "to gradually raise interest rates ... That is the path we have been on and my expectation is that will continue to be the appropriate path."Since Powell's appearance before the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, markets have been looking for clarity over whether the Fed will accelerate the pace of its rate increases this year.Powell's bullish comments about the economy on Tuesday sparked a jump in U.S. bond yields and drop in stocks.Reporting by Howard Schneider; Additional reporting by Pete Schroeder and Jason Lange in Washington, Jonathan Spicer in New York and Ann Saphir in San Francisco; Editing by Paul Simao

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Economists React: China's GDP Shows Signs of Overheating(April 15, 2010)

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Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF

Economists React: China's GDP Shows Signs of Overheating(April 15, 2010)

China's latest economic data show an attention-getting 11.9% surge in the first quarter's gross domestic product, combined with moderate inflation and slowing investment spending. Although China's leadership is clearly worried about a real-estate bubble, their next step is not obvious. Economists highlight what the mixed signals might mean for the future:Growth is strong, but there are signs of overheating. With stimulus already partly removed, the key is whether the authorities can steer the economy onto a more sustainable growth path, or whether generalized inflation and/or an asset bubble will break out in the second half and then trigger a bigger policy-induced slowdown for China in 2011. - Stephen Green, Standard CharteredWith 11.9% year-on-year GDP growth surpassing potential growth, overheated demand not only exhausts spare resources but also overstretches the supply capacity of raw materials, energy and infrastructure, leading to rapid upward pressure on prices. This is likely to be exacerbated by the fast export recovery, given that warming global demand puts new orders to China's manufacturers which exhausts the spare manufacturing capacity and ultimately adds pressures on consumer goods. ... In sum, the latest data releases have pointed to rising overheating and inflation risks. -- Qu Hongbin, HSBCThe acceleration in growth argues for further policy tightening. Yet, the call is not straightforward. CPI inflation is currently lower relative to the last two tightening periods in 2004 and 2007. The government is also concerned about producing a 2008-style correction in the property market. ... The fact that residential investment is the major driver of growth remains a concern. Residential apartments are a more politically sensitive issue than, for instance, steel factories, meaning the government may be reluctant to tighten as aggressively as it has in the past towards other sectors. - Ben Simpfendorfer, Royal Bank of ScotlandCPI inflation remains muted, at least for now. However, after four quarters of consecutive above-potential-level of GDP growth we believe the output gap is closed. We think in absence of a dramatic fall in external demand, it is critical for the government to tighten policy more decisively than they have been doing in order to prevent overheating. However, as CPI inflation remains low for now and policymakers remain very cautious on the external demand outlook we are likely to see more decisive tightening measures after CPI inflation rises to a relatively high level of say 3%-4%. - Yu Song & Helen Qiao, Goldman SachsWith growth now strong but headline inflation still subdued, the government has a window of opportunity to reign in the policy stimulus before it tips over into excess. ... On interest rates, the government is faced with an unpalatable choice: raise rates and damp the ardor of investors in the real estate sector, or leave rates on hold and allow the property bubble to expand further, and risk inflationary expectations taking hold. - Tom Orlik, Stone & McCarthy Research AssociatesFor now, the print of data does change the economic policy debate. There has been growing speculation that China may move on interest rates in response to the stronger property data (both volume and price) in April. We believe that the better than expected price data in March will be sufficient to keep the PBoC sidelined until the second half of the year. ... China's exit strategy continues to be one of subtlety and restraint. - Glenn Maguire, Societe GeneraleThe acceleration in year-on-year growth in Q1 was entirely due to weakness a year ago. Growth has continued to slow in quarter-on-quarter terms and the economy is now expanding at an unremarkable pace. Price pressures too seem to be easing. While we expect policy tightening over the coming quarter, there is no need for dramatic measures. - Mark Williams, Capital Economics

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NK risks fail to impact economy(2013-12-15)

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226490

Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

NK risks fail to impact economy(2013-12-15)

The recent political upheaval in North Korea won't affect the South Korean economy, North Korea experts and economists said Sunday.The purge, trial and immediate execution of Jang Song-thaek, North Korea's de facto No. 2 official, over an ultra-short period of four days raised concerns about the possibility of it adversely affecting the economy in the South.But the upheaval in Pyongyang was not priced much in the market, a relief for Seoul.The credit default swap (CDS) premium for South Korean state bonds stood at 55.33 basis points on Friday, down 2.44 basis points from a day earlier, according to the global market data firm SuperDerivatives. A basis point is a 0.01 percentage point.The higher the CDS premium is, the higher the risk of sovereign default.The CDS premium released Friday is the lowest credit default risk for Asia's fourth-largest economy this year. South Korea's risk premium continued to rise in the first half due to a series of provocations from North Korea following the South's joint military drills with the U.S.The solid fundamentals of the export-oriented South Korean economy largely attributed to the decline in the CDS premium. The US economy's recovery and rising demand from emerging markets also helped, analysts said.Weighing down the benchmark KOSPI index Friday was rather the U.S. Federal Reserve's imminent exit from its bond-purchasing program, they said. The KOSPI inched down 0.26 percent to close at 1962.91.Through its official Korea Central News Agency, North Korea said early Friday that Jang, the 67-year-old uncle of supreme leader Kim Jong Un, had been executed for treason.The news initially heightened concerns about stability on the Korean peninsula and a major impact on the South Korean market."The latest development in the North could have triggered a higher level of unrest on the peninsula and its economy," Lee Phil-sang, a visiting professor of the economics department of Seoul National University, said by telephone. "But the market didn't go volatile as the purge does not necessarily mean the dissolution of the Kim Jong Un regime despite Jang's elimination."Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean Studies at Dongguk University, said market participants "seem to have learnt that sudden twists in the North do not usually affect the economy in the South."Exchange rates haven't showed any major volatility following Friday's purge, as had happened in previous crises on the peninsula early this year.The dollar remained unchanged at 1,050 won, Friday.

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Samsung KODEX KOSPI ETF

Mortgage Crisis Spreads Past Subprime Loans(Feb. 12, 2008)

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