South Korea's CDS premium at 55.33 basis points, down 2.44 points
KOSPI decreased 0.26% to 1962.91
USD/KRW exchange rate remained stable at 1,050 won
Jang Song-thaek's execution in North Korea
Current CDS premium is lowest for 2023
South Korea's economy showing solid fundamentals
Market more concerned about Fed's bond program exit
Opinion
The market's muted reaction to North Korean political turmoil reveals concerning underlying issues. While immediate market impact appears limited, the disconnect between geopolitical risks and market pricing could indicate dangerous complacency among investors. The focus on Fed policy over regional stability risks suggests markets might be underpricing potential geopolitical shocks, which could lead to sudden market corrections if tensions escalate unexpectedly.
Core Sell Point
The market's apparent immunity to North Korean political upheaval masks potential underlying risks, as excessive focus on global monetary policy could leave investors unprepared for sudden geopolitical shocks on the Korean peninsula.
The recent political upheaval in North Korea won't affect the South Korean economy, North Korea experts and economists said Sunday.
The purge, trial and immediate execution of Jang Song-thaek, North Korea's de facto No. 2 official, over an ultra-short period of four days raised concerns about the possibility of it adversely affecting the economy in the South.
But the upheaval in Pyongyang was not priced much in the market, a relief for Seoul.
The credit default swap (CDS) premium for South Korean state bonds stood at 55.33 basis points on Friday, down 2.44 basis points from a day earlier, according to the global market data firm SuperDerivatives. A basis point is a 0.01 percentage point.
The higher the CDS premium is, the higher the risk of sovereign default.
The CDS premium released Friday is the lowest credit default risk for Asia's fourth-largest economy this year. South Korea's risk premium continued to rise in the first half due to a series of provocations from North Korea following the South's joint military drills with the U.S.
The solid fundamentals of the export-oriented South Korean economy largely attributed to the decline in the CDS premium. The US economy's recovery and rising demand from emerging markets also helped, analysts said.
Weighing down the benchmark KOSPI index Friday was rather the U.S. Federal Reserve's imminent exit from its bond-purchasing program, they said. The KOSPI inched down 0.26 percent to close at 1962.91.
Through its official Korea Central News Agency, North Korea said early Friday that Jang, the 67-year-old uncle of supreme leader Kim Jong Un, had been executed for treason.
The news initially heightened concerns about stability on the Korean peninsula and a major impact on the South Korean market.
"The latest development in the North could have triggered a higher level of unrest on the peninsula and its economy," Lee Phil-sang, a visiting professor of the economics department of Seoul National University, said by telephone. "But the market didn't go volatile as the purge does not necessarily mean the dissolution of the Kim Jong Un regime despite Jang's elimination."
Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean Studies at Dongguk University, said market participants "seem to have learnt that sudden twists in the North do not usually affect the economy in the South."
Exchange rates haven't showed any major volatility following Friday's purge, as had happened in previous crises on the peninsula early this year.
The dollar remained unchanged at 1,050 won, Friday.
