박재훈투영인
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4 months ago
"Buy" Ratings Despite Samsung's Earnings Shock: Are Local Brokerages Ignoring Reality?" (Oct 14, 2024)
"Even after Samsung's stock dropped more than 30%, local brokerages kept shouting 'buy.' I followed their recommendations and now I'm stuck."Even as Samsung Electronics' stock price plunged to the "₩50,000 range" after a disastrous Q3 earnings report, domestic securities firms continued issuing "buy" recommendations without exception.Earnings Shock & Stock DeclineOn October 8, Samsung Electronics reported Q3 operating profit of ₩9.1 trillion, down 12.8% from Q2. The company issued a rare apology statement acknowledging the weak results. Despite this, from October 8–10, not a single local brokerage issued a "sell" rating. Instead, 14 securities firms—including KB Securities, NH Investment & Securities, and Kiwoom Securities—maintained "buy" ratings.Meanwhile, Samsung’s stock fell 31.32% from ₩87,800 on July 10 to October 8, breaking the ₩60,000 level three times. Despite this, local brokerages did not issue a single "sell" report, unlike foreign investment banks (IBs).Morgan Stanley (Sep 15):Report: "Winter Looms"Cut Samsung’s target price from ₩105,000 → ₩76,000 (-27.6%)Reasons: HBM oversupply, declining DRAM prices, and weak smartphone/PC demand.Macquarie (Late Sep):Cut target price from ₩125,000 → ₩64,000 (-48.8%)Reasons: Memory price declines & oversupply.In contrast, domestic brokerages dismissed these concerns, arguing that "negative factors were already priced in." However, Samsung’s Q3 earnings shock ultimately validated the foreign IBs’ warnings.Delayed Target Price Cuts: Too Little, Too LateAfter the Q3 earnings report, domestic brokerages finally lowered their target prices—but only after the damage was done:Target Price Downgrades (After Q3 Earnings Report):iM Securities: ₩77,000 → ₩76,000DB Financial: ₩100,000 → ₩90,000KB Securities: ₩95,000 → ₩80,000NH Investment: ₩92,000 → ₩90,000Eugene Investment: ₩91,000 → ₩82,000Hyundai Motor Securities: ₩104,000 → ₩86,000Heungkuk Securities: ₩110,000 → ₩88,000At the same time, seven brokerages left their target prices unchanged, reinforcing suspicions of biased analysis.Retail Investors Take the HitForeign Investors Sold ₩8.2 Trillion of Samsung Stock (Sep 8 – Oct 8)Retail Investors Bought ₩7 Trillion Worth of Samsung StockSamsung’s Margin Debt (Leverage Trading) Surged 49.4% to ₩923.6 BillionRetail investors, influenced by domestic brokerages' optimistic reports, heavily bought Samsung shares, even increasing margin debt to its highest level in three years. This suggests that brokerage firms' misleading optimism led retail investors into leveraged losses.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
