President Trump has ordered a Section 232 investigation into copper imports, raising the likelihood of tariffs. In response, copper prices have surged, and major investment banks like Citigroup and Morgan Stanley expect the uptrend to continue.
Opinion
The specifics and timeline of the U.S. tariff decision will significantly impact copper supply dynamics. With existing supply shortages, particularly from China, price stabilization in the short term seems unlikely.
Core Sell Point
Given the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and supply constraints, investors should closely monitor policy developments and global supply chain trends before making investment decisions.
Copper prices are surging amid growing concerns over potential U.S. import tariffs. Following President Donald Trump’s recent move to initiate an investigation under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, investors are increasingly worried about prolonged global supply shortages.
In response to the tariff review announcement, Citigroup has revised its Q2 copper price forecast upward. Initially, the bank had projected copper prices at $8,500 per tonne for Q2. However, in a recent report, Citi analysts indicated that tightening global supply conditions could push prices above $10,000 per tonne in the short term until the U.S. finalizes its tariff decision. Similarly, Morgan Stanley has also forecasted continued price increases driven by potential U.S. tariffs.
The global copper market is already under supply pressure. Major commodity traders are rushing to ship copper to the U.S. before the tariffs take effect, further fueling price spikes. On the London Metal Exchange (LME), copper prices have reached an all-time high, trading at approximately $10,071 per tonne ($4.87 per pound).
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