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Market Overview

Technical analysts warn that the stock market has yet to find a true bottom, as tariff chaos and challenges to Federal Reserve independence weigh heavily. On Monday, the Dow plunged over 1,300 points intraday, triggered by worsening U.S.-China tensions and political pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Technical Outlook

Despite a recent rebound, analysts say the S&P 500’s internal structure remains defensive. Volatility is expected to persist.

• Jonathan Krinsky (BTIG): Expects a retest of the 5,000–5,100 zone. Warns markets remain defensive despite attempts to rebound.

• JC O'Hara (Roth MKM): Predicts an extended correction, emphasizing that repairing technical damage will take time.

• Ari Wald (Oppenheimer): Suggests buy-on-dips and sell-on-rallies strategy. Highlights resistance at 5,500–5,600 and key support at 4,800.

Safe-Haven Shift

Gold and gold mining stocks are gaining favor as investors seek safety. Analysts highlight emerging markets like China and Brazil as relatively attractive alternatives to the struggling U.S. market.

Strategic Views

• Rob Ginsberg (Wolfe Research): Cautions that U.S. rebounds are weak, driven by defensive sectors rather than cyclical strength. Sees better opportunities overseas.

• Broader market trends suggest time, not immediate action, is required for recovery.

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