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셀스마트 앤지 프로필 사진셀스마트 앤지
Trump Breaks the Stats — What Happens After a Surprise Market Rally?
created At: 4/10/2025
Neutral
Neutral
This analysis was written from a neutral perspective. We advise you to always make careful and well-informed investment decisions.
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Fact
On Apr 9, the S&P 500 gained 9.52%, the third-highest daily return since WWII -By comparison: +11.58% (Oct 13, 2008), +10.79% (Oct 28, 2008) Nasdaq Composite rose 12.61%, the second-highest on record -Highest: +14.17% (Jan 3, 2001)
Opinion
Historically, when the S&P 500 gains 6%+ in a single day, markets have tended to continue higher in the short term, with a 2.8% average return over the next month and a 67% chance of additional gains. In contrast, the Nasdaq’s post-rally performance has been more muted, reflecting higher volatility and lower follow-through.
Core Sell Point
While one-day rallies exceeding 6% often signal short-term momentum, investors should note the variation in outcomes across indices: The S&P 500 and Dow Jones tend to sustain gains, while the Nasdaq shows more volatility and weaker average returns.

Wednesday, April 9, delivered a historic rally in the U.S. stock market.
The S&P 500 surged 9.52% in a single day, marking the third-largest daily gain since World War II, following gains of 11.58% and 10.79% on Oct 13 and Oct 28, 2008, respectively.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite jumped 12.61%, registering its second-largest one-day gain in history, trailing only the 14.17% surge on Jan 3, 2001.

But what happens after such extreme rallies?

<One-Month Return After a 6%+ One-Day Gain: Historical Trends>

An analysis of past instances where the S&P 500 rose more than 6% in a day shows:

  • Average return over the next month: +2.8%

  • Probability of positive return: 67%

The Dow Jones Industrial Average showed similar results:

  • Average return: +2.8%

  • Probability of gain: 70%

However, the more volatile Nasdaq Composite lagged:

  • Average return: +0.9%

  • Probability of gain: 54%

[Compliance Note]

  • All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.

  • The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.

  • Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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