AMD Faces $800M Hit as U.S. Tightens Export Controls on AI Chips (Apr 17, 2025)

created At: 4/17/2025

Strong Sell

This analysis strongly recommends selling due to identified risk factors. Please review the details carefully before making a decision.

AMD

Advanced Micro Devices

Fact

-AMD expects up to $800 million in Q1 losses linked to the MI308 export ban -The MI308 now requires a U.S. export license for China-bound shipments -China accounted for 24% of AMD’s 2024 revenue (~$6.2B) -No precedent for GPU license approvals; timeline remains unclear -AMD stock dropped over 5% intraday on the announcement

Opinion

AMD’s reliance on China as a key revenue source makes this development more than just a one-time write-down. Supply disruptions, delayed product cycles, and market share erosion may follow if licensing hurdles persist. The regulatory overhang poses a strategic threat to AMD’s positioning in AI infrastructure markets.

Core Sell Point

The combination of export restrictions, geopolitical friction, and market share risks creates a structural overhang for AMD—one that may weigh on the stock beyond the near term.

AMD has warned of a potential $800 million loss in its Q1 2025 results due to new export restrictions imposed by the U.S. government. The move targets its MI308 AI chip, now subject to a newly enforced export license requirement as part of Washington’s tightening policy on advanced semiconductor shipments to China.

The projected loss includes provisions for inventory, supplier agreements, and related reserves—and could widen further if restrictions remain in place or expand.

China accounted for approximately 24% of AMD’s 2024 revenue, or $6.2 billion, making it one of the company’s most critical markets. However, U.S. authorities have never granted licenses for GPU exports to China, and this latest directive appears to carry no defined expiration period. Although AMD plans to apply for a license, approval remains uncertain.

The market responded swiftly. AMD shares fell more than 5% following the announcement, and other chipmakers with significant China exposure saw similar pressure. With escalating trade tensions and policy unpredictability, AMD faces risks that extend well beyond one quarter.

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