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The U.S. tourism industry is showing early signs of systemic contraction, following stricter immigration enforcement and tighter border screenings introduced by the Trump administration.
From January to March 2025, the number of international arrivals dropped –4.4% year-over-year, with a steeper –10% decline in March alone.
Atlanta International Airport reported a 5% drop in traffic, and alarm bells are ringing across the travel and hospitality sectors.

The U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has deported approximately 37,000 people year-to-date, averaging 450 per day, further discouraging foreign entry.

Tourism contributes 2.5% of U.S. GDP, with $2.9 trillion in annual foreign tourist spending and supporting 15 million jobs. The shock is already materializing: airfare bookings from Canada are down 70% YoY, and the estimated loss in Canadian consumer spending alone could reach $2.2 billion.

While the U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) initially projected growth in international arrivals for 2025, cancellations in both leisure and business segments are rising.
Analysts warn that if aggressive screening policies, trade tensions, and anti-American sentiment persist, a long-term recovery in the tourism sector may be at risk.

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