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On April 9 (local time), President Donald Trump announced a 90-day suspension on select reciprocal tariffs, excluding China. The unexpected move triggered a swift sentiment shift on Wall Street, which had been rattled by trade policy uncertainty.

Notably, Goldman Sachs reversed its U.S. recession call just one hour after initially projecting a downturn, returning to a soft-landing scenario.

Key Developments

✅ Trump’s Announcement

• 90-day suspension of additional reciprocal tariffs for countries excluding China

• Existing 10% baseline tariffs will remain in place

• Sector-specific additional tariffs will proceed as planned

✅ Goldman Sachs Outlook Shift

• Before Trump’s statement: Adopted a recession scenario, assigning a 65% probability

• After the announcement: Reverted to non-recession baseline

• U.S. GDP forecast revised to +0.5%

• 12-month recession probability cut to 45%

Goldman noted that “effective tariff rates will still rise by close to 15 percentage points,” suggesting the macro impact may unfold gradually rather than immediately.

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