Deutsche Bank가 Netflix 투자의견을 보유(Hold)로 하향
2023년 주가 65% 상승으로 긍정적 요인이 이미 반영됐다고 판단
목표주가는 460달러에서 525달러로 상향 (상승여력 7%)
2024년 P/E 32배, 2025년 P/E 27배 수준
EPS 성장률 전망: 2024년 38% → 2025년 21% → 2026년 16%
최근 실적: 매출 예상치 상회, 구독자 1,310만명 순증(시장예상 800-900만명)
광고 사업은 50억 달러 규모의 기회이나 2025년 이후 본격화 전망
Opinion
주가 상승과 실적 호조에도 불구하고 나온 투자의견 하향은 흥미로운 시사점을 제공합니다. 특히 Netflix의 성장 모멘텀이 정점을 지났다는 판단은 스트리밍 시장의 성숙화를 반영합니다. 더욱이 광고 사업이라는 새로운 성장동력도 단기간 내 유의미한 기여는 어렵다는 분석은, 현재의 높은 밸류에이션이 부담으로 작용할 수 있음을 시사합니다.
Core Sell Point
Netflix는 여전히 미디어 업계의 선도기업이지만, 높은 밸류에이션과 성장률 둔화 전망은 단기적 주가 상승의 제약 요인이 될 수 있습니다.
Deutsche Bank is moving to the sidelines on shares of Netflix despite another solid quarter from the streaming giant. Analyst Bryan Kraft views the company as the “best story in media among the vertically integrated producers/programmers/distributors,” but nevertheless downgraded Netflix to a hold rating. He said that its leadership position and good news look “fully priced” in to the stock already after its 65% runup in 2023. NFLX 1D mountain Netflix pops after earnings “Netflix is trading at 32x 2024E / 27x 2025E EPS, which we see as leaving little room for multiple expansion given what we think will be peak EPS growth in 2024 (at 38%); decelerating to 21% and 16% in 2025 and 2026, respectively,” he wrote in a note Wednesday. “It is possible that our estimates could prove too low, but we don’t see step change type revisions ahead for 2024 the way we did when we upgraded the stock back in October 2022 when the market simply didn’t believe paid sharing would succeed,” Kraft added. The downgrade from Deutsche Bank comes in the wake of another strong quarter from the dominant player in entertainment media . Netflix topped revenue estimates and added 13.1 million subscribers, easily topping the 8 million to 9 million additions expected by Wall Street analysts. Looking ahead, Kraft expects advertising to be a “meaningful” contribution to revenue and profitability, and balloon to a $5 billion opportunity. But those tailwinds won’t kick in until 2025. “Advertising remains an opportunity for monetization, but it’s still early days and 2024 will be more about growing the ads tier base and building out the international sales effort than scaling ad revenue in a meaningful way,” he wrote. Along with the downgrade, Kraft boosted the bank’s price target to $525 a share, implying nearly 7% upside from Wednesday’s close, from an earlier target of $460. But Netflix is already surging 10.6% premarket Wednesday, touching $544.50. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.
