Barclays가 Ford 투자등급을 비중확대(overweight)에서 중립(equal weight)으로 하향
목표주가를 13달러에서 11달러로 하향 (상승여력 5.5%)
Ford 주가는 최근 1년간 7% 하락 (S&P500 지수는 같은 기간 20% 상승)
애널리스트 26명 중 15명이 중립, 5명이 매도/비중축소, 6명이 매수/강력매수 의견
4분기 실적은 2월 5일 발표 예정
Opinion
Ford의 현 상황은 자동차 산업의 구조적 변화 시기에 겪는 전통 제조사의 도전을 보여줍니다. 재고 수준 증가는 단순한 일시적 현상이 아닌 수요 예측의 불확실성과 공급망 관리의 어려움을 반영합니다. 특히 2024년의 재고 보충 효과가 2025년에는 사라진다는 점은, 실질적인 수요 성장 없이는 매출 성장이 제한될 수 있음을 시사합니다. 비용 절감 노력에도 불구하고 가격과 판매량 측면의 하락 압력을 상쇄하기 어려울 것이라는 전망은, 전통 자동차 업계가 직면한 수익성 개선의 구조적 한계를 보여줍니다.
Core Sell Point
전통 자동차 제조사인 Ford는 재고 관리의 어려움과 가격 하락 압력 속에서 비용 절감만으로는 극복하기 어려운 구조적 성장 한계에 직면해 있으며, 이는 자동차 산업 전반의 전환기적 도전을 대변합니다.
Barclays is moving to the sidelines when it comes to Ford Motor . The bank downgraded the automaker to equal weight from overweight. Analyst Dan Levy accompanied the move by lowering his price target to $11 from $13, implying upside of just 5.5%. “Considering Ford’s current earnings profile and valuation, it lacks a compelling case for us to remain OW-rated. Simply, with Ford facing headwinds from volume and price in ’25, it’s unclear that cost actions will be sufficient to offset these drags — this uncertainty leads us to step to the sidelines with an EW rating,” the analyst wrote. F 1Y mountain F 1Y chart Levy pointed to Ford’s elevated inventory levels, which will take time to resolve, as one lingering headwind. “Regardless of how much Ford can justify its elevated inventory, the current situation means that Ford will have sharp volume headwinds in ’25 — especially when considering that 2025 will see the non-repeat of inventory replenishment which benefited 2024,” he wrote. “Ford’s inventory issue, in our view, will cast an overhang on earnings until its clearly resolved, as elevated inventory will keep the risk of an adverse turn in pricing elevated.” These volume and price headwinds could limit any potential upside ahead for shares of Ford, Levy added, especially since the stock’s valuation is not currently especially compelling. “Barring a positive surprise on ’25 cost-outs, we see little reason for investors to get excited on the case for Ford fundamentals,” he remarked. Investors will get a look at Ford’s fourth-quarter figures on Feb. 5. Shares of Ford have lagged over the past year, slipping slipped nearly 7%, while the S & P 500 is up more than 20% in that time. The stock lost more than 1% in the premarket on the back of the downgrade. Analyst sentiment on the stock is mixed. LSEG data shows that 15 of 26 analysts covering Ford have a hold rating, while another five rate it as a sell or underperform. Another six have a buy or strong buy rating.