New Street Research가 Nvidia 투자의견을 중립으로 하향
목표주가 135달러 설정 (현재가 대비 5% 상승여력)
2024년 들어 159% 상승
41명의 애널리스트 중 38명이 매수, 3명이 보유 의견 (매도 의견 없음)
현재 P/E는 향후 12개월 실적 기준 40배 수준
GPU 매출 성장률이 내년 35% 수준으로 예상
Opinion
Nvidia는 AI 반도체 시장에서 독보적인 위치를 차지하고 있지만, 2025년 이후의 실적 전망이 불확실한 상황입니다. 매출 성장률이 중간 십대 수준으로 둔화될 것으로 예상되는 가운데, 현재의 높은 밸류에이션(P/E 40배)은 부담 요인입니다. 과거 성장률이 10% 수준으로 둔화되었을 때 P/E가 20배까지 하락했던 점을 고려하면, 현재의 밸류에이션은 조정 리스크가 있어 보입니다.
Core Sell Point
Nvidia의 성장률 둔화 전망과 높은 밸류에이션으로 인해 New Street Research가 드물게 투자의견 하향을 단행했습니다
New Street Research is raising the alarm on shares of Nvidia after the chip giant’s June rally. Analyst Pierre Ferragu downgraded the dominant manufacturer of semiconductors used in artificial intelligence to neutral, citing limited upside. “We downgrade the stock to Neutral today, as upside will only materialize in a bull case, in which the outlook beyond 2025 increases materially, and we do not have the conviction on this scenario playing out yet,” he wrote Friday, noting that revenue models show growth slowing to a mid-teen rate, with graphics process unit revenues rising only 35% next year. Shares of Nvidia have surged 159% so far this year, building on an AI-fueled rally that kicked off in late 2022 when ChatGPT debuted. But Nvidia has pulled back in recent weeks as investors locked in some profits. Any negative opinion on Nvidia is pretty much unheard of these days on Wall Street. Of the 41 analysts covering the stock, 38 give it a buy rating, while three say it is a hold, according to TipRanks.com . No analysts say it is a sell. There was only one other downgrade of Nvidia from buy to hold this year, by Germany’s DZ Bank in May. Given this contrarian outlook, New Street set a $135 price target on Nvidia, assuming a 35 times multiple, in line with its 2019 and early 2020 multiple. The target suggests 5% upside from Wednesday’s close. Ferragu added that Nvidia may run the risk of seeing a lower price-earnings multiple, as it currently trades at 40 times the next 12 months’ earnings. That multiple bottomed at 20 times in 2019 when growth eased to 10%. “The quality of the franchise is nevertheless intact, and we would be buyers again, but only on prolonged weakness,” he wrote.
