Wells Fargo가 Amazon 투자의견을 비중확대에서 동일비중(equal weight)으로 하향
목표주가를 225달러에서 183달러로 하향 (현재가 대비 2% 하락여력)
2023년 6월 30일 이후 주가 43% 상승 (S&P 500 상승률 29%)
올해 들어 22% 상승
66명의 애널리스트 중 63명이 매수/강력매수 의견 유지
투자의견 하향 후 장전 거래에서 1% 이상 하락
Opinion
Amazon은 AWS와 북미 리테일 부문에서 긍정적인 변곡점을 보여왔고 장기적으로는 마진 확대가 계속될 것으로 예상되지만, 최근의 기대치가 다소 과도해진 것으로 보입니다. 특히 Walmart의 물류 서비스 시장 진출이 큰 위협이 될 수 있습니다. Walmart는 Amazon보다 저렴한 물류 비용과 Prime과 동등한 배송 속도, 전국 규모의 물류센터 네트워크, 오프라인 매장을 활용한 라스트마일 배송 등의 경쟁력을 보유하고 있습니다.
Core Sell Point
Amazon의 마진 확대에 대한 시장의 과도한 기대와 Walmart의 물류 시장 진출로 인한 경쟁 심화 우려로 Wells Fargo가 투자의견을 하향조정했습니다
The good times for Amazon may be over for now, according to Wells Fargo. Analyst Ken Gawrelski downgraded the e-commerce giant to equal weight from overweight. He also slashed his price target to $183 from $225, implying downside of nearly 2% from Friday’s close. Gawrelski noted that Amazon’s consistently better-than-expected growth has led analysts to repeatedly positively revise earnings estimates since the second quarter of last year. Since June 30, 2023, shares have soared 43%, outperforming a 29% S & P 500 gain. AMZN .SPX mountain 2023-06-30 AMZN vs SPX since June 30, 2023 Going forward, that may not be the case. In June 2023, “we saw Amazon on the cusp of significant positive inflections in both key business lines: AWS and North America Retail. These calls have played out,” the analyst said. Amazon Web Services is its cloud unit. “Amazon is likely still a solid margin expansion story over the long term,” he added. “But as Amazon management has said multiple times, margin expansion won’t be linear. We, and market consensus, likely became a bit exuberant in our extrapolation of margin expansion trends in 2023 and early ’24 to ‘25 and beyond forecasts.” Gawrelski also pointed to increasing competition from Walmart as a headwind. “While there were always smaller, independent providers of fulfillment services to Amazon merchants, Walmart’s entry into this market changes the competitive field,” he said. “In addition to cheaper fulfillment pricing than Amazon, Walmart can match Prime’s shipping speeds. Walmart has constructed a national ‘next generation’ fulfillment center network which provides next day or two-day shipping to 75% of the U.S. population. Plus, Walmart can leverage its network of retail locations to facilitate last mile fulfillment,” Gawrelski said. The downgrade puts Gawrelski in the minority among analysts covering Amazon. Sixty-three of 66 analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on the stock, and only three rate it as a hold, LSEG data shows. Amazon shares fell more than 1% in the premarket following the downgrade. Year to date, the stock is up more than 22%.
