RBC Capital Markets가 Rivian 투자의견을 섹터수익률로 하향
목표주가를 28달러에서 14달러로 50% 하향
2021년 상장 당시 860억 달러였던 시가총액이 현재 124억 달러로 감소
주가는 2022년 82% 하락, 올해도 27% 하락
2023년 생산목표 5만대, 파워 반도체 공급 제약 예상
장전 거래에서 2% 하락
Opinion
Rivian은 전기차 시장에서 좋은 포지셔닝을 가지고 있지만, 단기적으로는 수익성 개선을 위한 촉매제가 부족한 상황입니다. 특히 고정비용이 마진 개선의 2/3를 차지하는 상황에서 파워 반도체 공급 부족으로 인한 생산 제약은 큰 부담으로 작용할 것으로 보입니다. R2 차량 공개와 생산 확대가 투자심리에 도움이 될 수 있지만, 현재의 계획을 넘어서는 개선은 어려울 것으로 전망됩니다.
Core Sell Point
Rivian의 단기 실적 개선 가능성이 제한적이고 반도체 공급 문제로 인한 생산 제약이 예상됨에 따라 RBC가 투자의견과 목표가를 큰 폭으로 하향했습니다
It’s time to step to the sidelines on Rivian Automotive , according to RBC Capital Markets. Analyst Tom Narayan downgraded Rivian to sector perform from outperform, saying the once-hot electric vehicle stock has limited catalysts in the near term. “RIVN is well positioned to capture market share as the industry shifts towards electrification, and we continue to believe its clean-sheet approach and vertical integration will allow for higher margins at scale,” Narayan wrote to clients Tuesday. “R2 [vehicle] reveal and production ramp can help sentiment, but near-term we see limited catalysts to accelerate profitability and believe margins will remain constrained,” he added. Additionally, the analyst halved his price target on Rivian to $14 from $28. The new price target is just slightly higher than where shares closed Tuesday, at $13.43. The stock was down 2% in Wednesday’s premarket. RIVN YTD line Rivian stock movement Rivian made one of the biggest public debuts in November 2021 when its implied valuation of $86 billion pushed the electric vehicle maker past the market cap of Ford. Today, however, Rivian’s market cap stands at roughly $12.4 billion. The stock is down 27% this year and tumbled 82% in 2022, as rising interest rates and surging inflation soured investors on the prospects of startups. The analyst expects that Rivian’s margins are improving but said the company can do little to improve on fixed costs, citing limited access to power semiconductors this year. “Fixed cost overhead is the single largest driver for margin improvement, representing 2/3rds of the overall bridge to gross margin expansion, but this is where we believe there is limited ability to accelerate beyond current plan,” Narayan wrote. “RIVN is constrained on power semiconductor availability this year and while they have taken action to help mitigate the situation (added to supplier base and cut number of modules needed in a vehicle), we believe upside to the 50k production target is limited (we model 51.9k),” the analyst added. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
