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2 months ago
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Bank of America Highlights High-Quality Financial Stocks with Attractive Dividends
Bank of America’s View: High-Quality Dividends as a Hedge Against Market ShocksAccording to Bank of America, high-quality dividend stocks in the financial sector are among the best ways to brace for market turbulence.Financials have been trading up and down amid trade tensions and economic worries. Stocks have risen this week but remain lower since President Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement. Although reciprocal tariffs have been paused, unilateral 10% tariffs remain in effect.The Financial sector rose by 3% this week. The Financial Select SPDR Fund is roughly flat year-to-date, while the S&P 500 has declined 7%. Bank of America has maintained an Overweight rating on the sector.Although financials have shown some instability, Wall Street largely expects them to benefit from regulatory rollbacks under Trump. Nonetheless, Bank of America warns that policy uncertainty and tariffs could fuel ongoing market volatility and inflation risks."High quality is the best hedge against volatility... and income protection from inflation is where alpha will be generated," said Savita Subramanian."A traditional high-quality dividend approach is warranted," she added.Subramanian focused on financial stocks within the Russell 3000 that pay dividends, selecting companies based on profitability, dividend growth, and stability over a 10-year period. Selected firms had median or higher ROEs, higher dividend yields than the index, and a payout ratio (EPS to forward DPS) above 1.0.Here are five highlighted picks:Morgan Stanley (3.29% yield):Surpassed earnings and revenue estimates in Q1. Stock trading revenue surged by 45%.CEO Ted Pick noted that the outlook is "less predictable." Shares are down 8% YTD.JPMorgan (2.32% yield):Delivered a strong quarter, with a surge in trading revenue.CEO Jamie Dimon announced a $7 billion share buyback and a 12% dividend hike.The company is preparing for a range of scenarios, including tariffs and inflation. Stock is up 2% YTD.BlackRock (2.33% yield):Reported mixed Q1 results.CEO Larry Fink stated that BlackRock’s positioning is "stronger than ever," citing resilience through past crises like the financial crash, COVID, and inflation waves.Shares are down 11% YTD.Fifth Third Bancorp (4.22% yield):Shares have fallen 15% YTD despite an attractive yield.East West Bancorp (2.84% yield):Shares have declined 10% YTD.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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JPMorgan Chase
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4 months ago
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Weekly BoB3! Top 3 U.S. Stocks to Watch in the First Week of February
Weekly BoB 3🏇👉Top 3 U.S. Stocks to Watch – First Week of FebruaryHello, this is CORE16.CORE16 actively responds to market trends by analyzing multiple data points, including 1) stock momentum, 2) trading volume fluctuations, and 3) financial stability, to curate the SellSmart Best of Breed (BoB) portfolio, which selects the most attractive stocks.SellSmart Best of Breed has demonstrated significantly higher returns compared to the S&P 500 index, the global stock market benchmark.Using 2020 as the baseline (100), the S&P 500 has risen to 172, while the SellSmart BoB portfolio has surged to 655, showcasing its superior performance.In our Weekly BoB 3 content, we highlight the top three U.S. stocks from the BoB portfolio that are the most attractive in terms of potential returns for the week.Walmart✅ Walmart operates as a technology-driven omnichannel retailer, managing retail and wholesale stores, clubs, e-commerce websites, and mobile applications across eight countries.✅ Despite concerns over consumer spending slowdowns, Walmart has demonstrated consistent revenue growth and a stable dividend policy, reinforcing its position as a defensive stock.✅ This marks its second consecutive week in the Weekly BoB3, delivering an approximate 3.9% gain over the past two weeks.JPMorgan Chase✅ As a leading financial holding company, JPMorgan Chase operates in four key segments: Consumer & Community Banking, Corporate & Investment Banking, Commercial Banking, and Asset & Wealth Management.✅ The firm has maintained over 10% revenue growth since 2021, backed by its broad customer base and strong positioning within the financial sector.✅ This is its fourth consecutive week in the Weekly BoB3, posting an approximate 5.7% gain over the past four weeks.Meta Platforms✅ Meta Platforms develops products and services that connect and engage users across mobile devices, personal computers, VR & MR headsets, AR, and wearables.✅ Among big tech companies, Meta has stood out with cost structure improvements and strong expectations around AI and metaverse investments.✅ Impressively, Meta has been featured in Weekly BoB3 for 57 consecutive weeks, achieving a cumulative gain of over 80% during this period.The Best of Breed strategy has delivered outstanding performance due to its rigorous stock selection process, continuous portfolio adjustments based on market conditions, and proactive risk management.However, no investment strategy guarantees future success based on past performance. It is essential to consider individual investment preferences and current market conditions when making decisions.At CORE16, we continuously monitor market volatility alongside data-driven quantitative analysis. Stay tuned for Weekly BoB3 updates as we provide insights into the most attractive stocks each week.
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META
Meta Platforms
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4 months ago
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General Mills sells North America yogurt operations in $2 billion deal to focus on stronger brands(Sep 12, 2024)
General Mills will sell its North American yogurt business to French dairy firms Groupe Lactalis and Sodiaal in a $2.1 billion deal, the Cheerios maker said on Thursday.Lactalis will acquire the U.S. business and Sodiaal will buy the Canadian unit, the company said.Reuters reported in April that General Mills was working with investment bank JPMorgan Chase to attract interest from potential buyers for the business, which houses brands such as Yoplait and Liberté.Packaged food makers are divesting units not delivering high growth to keep a tight leash on costs while expanding their core brands as they respond to consumers seeking cheaper alternatives.The divestiture will help sharpen focus on key brands that have stronger margins, Chief Executive Officer Jeff Harmening said in a statement.Yoplait is facing tough competition in the U.S. from privately held yogurt brand Chobani, as well as Danone’s Dannon brand.The North American yogurt business contributed about $1.5 billion to General Mills’ fiscal 2024 net sales.The Golden Valley, Minnesota-based company expects the deals to close in 2025, and will dilute adjusted earnings per share by about 3% in the first 12 months after the close.Bloomberg News earlier on Thursday reported that General Mills was in talks to sell the North American yogurt operations to Groupe Lactalis and Sodiaal.Yoplait was started by a group of French dairy farmers in 1964. It partnered with General Mills in 1977 through a franchise agreement giving the maker of Bisquick pancake mix exclusive rights to market the brand in the U.S.Then in 2011, General Mills acquired a 51% stake worth $1.2 billion in Yoplait from private equity firm PAI Partners and French dairy cooperative Sodiaal, which retained the remaining stake.In 2021, General Mills sold the European operations of Yoplait to Sodiaal.
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5 months ago
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Bleakonomics(March 30, 2008)
Strong Sell
Strong Sell
133690
Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF
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5 months ago
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Bleakonomics(March 30, 2008)
Since the bank runs of the 1930s, federal protection of retail depositor institutions has been a hallmark of American capitalism. The Federal Reserve, in a sweeping extension, has now extended the privilege to gilt-edged investment firms.Its flurry of interventions has prompted a double dose of unease. The central bank offered a lifeline to Wall Street investors who, seemingly, deserved a worse fate. And it arguably interrupted the cycle of boom, bust and renewal that leads to a durable recovery.What is the true value of Bear Stearns? If the government-orchestrated takeover of Bear goes through as planned, we will never know. As with Bear, so with the billions of dollars of mortgage securities for which the central bank has suddenly become an eager customer. So, too, perhaps, with the nation’s stock of residential homes — the prices of which, instead of reverting to more realistic values, will get a boost from the Fed’s repeated rounds of interest rate-cutting.Government interventions always bring disruptions, but when Washington meddles in financial markets, the potential for the sort of distortion that obscures proper incentives is especially large, due to our markets’ complexities. Even Robert Rubin, the Citigroup executive and former Treasury secretary, has admitted he had never heard of a type of contract responsible for major problems at Citi.Bear is a far smaller company, and, it would seem, far simpler. But consider that as recently as three weeks ago, it was valued at $65 a share. Then, as it became clear that Bear faced the modern equivalent of a bank run,JPMorgan Chase negotiated a merger with the figure of $10 a share in mind. Alas, at the 11th hour, Morgan’s bankers realized they couldn’t get a handle on what Bear owned — or owed — and got cold feet. Under heavy pressure from the Fed and the Treasury, a deal was struck at the price of a subway ride — $2 a share.It is safe to say that neither Jamie Dimon, Morgan’s chief executive, nor Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman who pushed for the deal, know what Bear is really worth. For the record, Bear’s book value per share is $84. As Meredith Whitney, who follows Wall Street for Oppenheimer, remarked, “It’s hard to get a linear progression from 84 to 2.”Capitalism isn’t supposed to work like this, and before the advent of modern finance, it usually didn’t. Market values fluctuate, but — in the absence of fraud — billion-dollar companies do not evaporate. Yet it’s worth noting that Lehman Brothers’ stock also fell by half and then recovered within a 24-hour span. Once, investors could get a read on financial firms’ assets and risks from their balance sheets; those days are history.Firms now do much of their business off the balance sheet. The swashbuckling Bear Stearns was a party to $2.5 trillion — no typo — of a derivative instrument known as a credit default swap. Such swaps are off-the-books agreements with third parties to exchange sums of cash according to a motley assortment of other credit indicators. In truth, no outsider could understand what Bear (or Citi, or Lehman) was committed to. The thought that Bear’s counterparties (the firms on the other side of that $2.5 trillion) would call in their chits — and then cancel their trades with Lehman, perhaps with Merrill Lynch and so forth — sent Wall Street into panic mode. Had Bear collapsed, or so asserted a veteran employee, “it would have been the end: pandemonium and global meltdown.”It is true that Bear’s shareholders have suffered steep losses. But the Fed went much further than in previous episodes to calm the waters. Notably, it announced it would accept mortgage securities as collateral for loans — enlarging its role as lender of last resort. (Wall Street jesters had it that the Fed would also be accepting “cereal box-tops.”) Then the Fed extended a backstop line of credit to JPMorgan to tide Bear over; finally, it agreed to absorb the ugliest $30 billion of Bear’s assets.Government rescues are as old as private enterprise itself, but we are well beyond the days of guaranteeing loans to stodgy manufacturers à la Chrysler and Lockheed. Those cases were contained; the borders of finance are more nebulous. However pure of motive, Bernanke & Co. are underwriting overleveraged markets whose linkages, even today, are dimly understood. The formula of laissez faire in advance and intervention in the aftermath has it exactly wrong. Better that the Fed, with Congress’s help if need be, ensures that regulators and markets have the tools to know what companies are worth before the trouble hits.
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133690
Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF
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5 months ago
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Run on Big Wall St. Bank Spurs Rescue Backed by U.S.(March 15, 2008)
Just three days ago, the head of Bear Stearns, the beleaguered investment bank, sought to assure Wall Street that his firm was safe.But those assurances were blown away in what amounted to a bank run at Bear Stearns, prompting JPMorgan Chase and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to step in on Friday with a financial rescue package intended to keep the firm afloat.The move underscores the extreme stresses that the credit crisis has imposed on the financial system and raises the once-unthinkable prospect that major Wall Street firms might fail.The developments may only postpone the eventual sale of all or part of Bear Stearns, which has had crippling losses on mortgage-linked investments. To keep the 85-year-old firm solvent, JPMorgan, backed by the New York Fed, extended a secured line of credit that gives Bear Stearns at least 28 days to shore up its finances or, more likely, to find a buyer.News of the bailout ignited fears that other big banks remain vulnerable to the continuing credit crisis, and stocks tumbled in another rocky day for the markets. Financial shares led the way, with shares of Bear Stearns plunging 47 percent. Hours after the rescue was announced, another Wall Street firm, Lehman Brothers, said it had secured a three-year credit line from banks. Its stock fell 15 percent.Policy makers are likely to spend the weekend dealing with the fallout in the financial system, and potential buyers are already circling Bear Stearns.As the Wall Street drama unfolded, Ben S. Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, added fresh warnings Friday about a gathering wave of home foreclosures bearing down on American communities.President Bush, meantime, made his most striking acknowledgment yet of the country’s economic troubles, even as he defended his administration’s responses so far and warned against more drastic steps by the government to intervene.“Today’s events are fast moving,” he said, “but the chairman of the Federal Reserve and the secretary of the Treasury are on top of them and will take the appropriate steps to promote stability in our markets.”The rescue effort began late Thursday evening, when Alan D. Schwartz, Bear Stearns’s chief executive, placed an urgent call to James Dimon, his counterpart at JPMorgan Chase. Mr. Schwartz said Bear Stearns was struggling to finance its day-to-day operations, according to several people briefed on the negotiations, a situation that would threaten its survival.Because JPMorgan settles transactions for Bear Stearns as its main clearing bank, it was in a good position to assess the collateral that Bear Stearns could provide against a loan. But Mr. Dimon insisted on the support of Timothy F. Geithner, president of the New York Fed. Mr. Geithner quickly agreed to the plan.Assisted by Gary Parr, a top investment banker at Lazard specializing in financial companies, Mr. Schwartz and Mr. Dimon spent the night negotiating the deal, which was not sealed until the early hours of Friday.The size and terms of the credit line were not disclosed. JPMorgan will borrow the money from the Fed and lend it to Bear Stearns, and the Fed will ultimately bear the risk of the loan.Meetings between Bear Stearns and prospective suitors have already begun. Interested parties include J. C. Flowers & Company, the private equity investor, and Royal Bank of Scotland, according to people who were briefed on the discussions.The Fed’s intervention highlights the problems regulators face as they contemplate the prospect that investment banks, saddled with toxic securities tied to subprime mortgages, are losing the trust of their lenders and clients — the kiss of death on Wall Street, where confidence has always been the most precious asset of all.Traditionally regulators have helped commercial banks in financial panics, but not investment banks, which do not hold customer deposits. But the 1999 repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act, the Depression-era law that separated investment banks and commercial banks, led to consolidation within the financial industry that has made such distinctions harder to make.“I don’t remember a Fed action aimed at a noncommercial bank; this is the kind of thing you see in this post-regulatory environment,” said Charles Geisst, a Wall Street historian at Manhattan College.The developments represent a devastating blow to Bear Stearns, which has carved a niche by mastering the financial arcana of the mortgage market. But after two of its hedge funds that specialized in the subprime mortgage market collapsed last summer, Bear Stearns’s area of strength became a millstone.In a conference call on Friday, Mr. Schwartz, who succeeded James E. Cayne as chief executive early this year, sounded frustrated as he described the run on Bear Stearns over the previous 24 hours, and raised the possibility that the firm’s days as an independent bank were numbered.“This is a bridge to a more permanent solution and it will allow us to look at strategic alternatives that can run the gamut,” he said. “Investors will be able to see the facts instead of the fiction. We will look for any alternative that serves our customers as well as maximizes shareholder value.”Only days earlier, Mr. Schwartz, a well-connected investment banker who has been at Bear Stearns since the early 1970s, appeared on television to try to calm market fears that the bank was in trouble. Skittish lenders were already calling in loans made to Carlyle Capital, a bond fund sponsored by the Carlyle private equity group, as well as Thornburg Mortgage, a major mortgage firm. Soon the attention spread to Bear Stearns as market players began to question the firm’s ability to finance itself, sending its stock into a tailspin.By late Thursday, Bear Stearns’s top lenders and its hedge fund clients were calling the firm and demanding their cash back, perhaps encouraged by Mr. Schwartz’s comments that the firm’s capital and liquidity were strong.Mr. Schwartz said on Friday that he hoped to find a long-term solution as soon as possible. At its closing price of $30 a share on Friday, Bear Stearns was trading at a gaping discount to its reported book value of $80 a share. Mr. Schwartz said that Bear Stearns, which moved up the reporting of its first-quarter results to this Monday, is still likely to have a result in the range of analyst estimates, suggesting a profit and a slight expansion of its book value, the truest measure of its financial condition.Questions persist, however, concerning the real value of its remaining assets.While Bear Stearns has valuable businesses like its hedge fund servicing and back office unit, as well as aspects of its real estate operations, they are unlikely to command a high price given the current market. But Mr. Dimon, despite having expressed reservations on buying another investment bank, could bid for all or part of Bear Stearns at a discounted price. Bear Stearns might accept his offer if it cannot solicit a competing bid.The troubles at Bear Stearns have come quickly and savagely and hurt some of the putatively smartest money in finance. From Joseph Lewis, the Bermuda-based billionaire who bought $1 billion of Bear Stearns shares last summer, when the stock was trading at $100 and above, to William Miller, the vaunted value investor at Legg Mason, those who have wagered on a turnaround at Bear Stearns are many.As the smallest of the major Wall Street banks, Bear Stearns disdained the big bets that its larger competitors made and shied away from trendy markets like Internet stocks in the 1990s.But as its core mortgage business flourished during the housing boom from 2003 to 2006, Bear Stearns, under the guidance of Mr. Cayne, succumbed to the fervor of the time. Bear Stearns’s stock price soared and hit a high of $171, making Mr. Cayne, who owns 5 percent of Bear Stearns, a billionaire for a brief moment.The demise of the hedge funds began a slow but persistent loss of market confidence in the bank. Such an erosion can be devastating for any investment bank, especially one like Bear Stearns, which has a leverage ratio of over 30 to 1, meaning it borrows more than 30 times the value of its $11 billion equity base.“The public has never fully understood how leveraged these institutions are,” said Samuel L. Hayes, a professor of investment banking at Harvard Business School. “But the market makers understand this inherent risk. This is a run on the bank, just like Long-Term Capital Management, Kidder and Drexel Burnham.”
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Sell
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133690
Mirae Asset TIGER NASDAQ100 ETF
Economy & Strategy
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4 months ago
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Bad news for the economy can also be bad news for the stock market (Aug 1, 2025)
This year, the stock market has shown a paradoxical trend. As economic indicators worsen, a perverse view emerged that bad news could be good news for the market, since it might prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. This idea made some sense when inflation—after a long period—had become the primary market bogeyman amid a slowing economy. However, after the Fed recently decided to keep its short-term rate at the highest level in 20 years, investors are now expressing anxiety over a series of disappointing economic data points.July U.S. Manufacturing Activity: The ISM index dropped 1.7 percentage points from June to 46.8%, signaling an economic contraction (readings below 50% indicate contraction).Unemployment Insurance Claims: First-time filings surged to 249,000 last week—14,000 above estimates and the highest level since August 2023.Layoffs: Announced layoffs in July reached a 20-year high, intensifying concerns about a weakening labor market.10-Year Treasury Yield: Fell below 4% for the first time since February.Stock Market Reaction: Despite the lower yields, fears of a recession have driven the Dow Jones Industrial Average sharply lower, with cyclical stocks like JPMorgan Chase and Caterpillar taking significant hits.Expert Insights:Chris Rupkey, FWDBONDS Chief Economist, stated,“The manufacturing and unemployment data are clearly indicating a downturn, if not a recession, this morning. The market is unsure whether to laugh or cry because, despite the potential for three Fed rate cuts this year and 10-year yields falling below 4%, the winds of recession are blowing hard according to manufacturing purchasing managers.”Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge added,“The ISM shortfall is the latest sign of cooling domestic growth, and it further suggests that the Fed should have begun its easing cycle yesterday instead of waiting until September.”Looking ahead, the upcoming July jobs report is expected to be a crucial indicator of the economic slowdown. Dow Jones estimates predict that job gains will slow from 206,000 in the previous month to 185,000. Depending on how future economic data influences the Fed’s policy decisions, market volatility could increase even further.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.
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No Relevant Stock
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5 months ago
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Italy debt concerns plague world markets(July 11, 2011)
World markets slumped Monday, as fears about debt crises plagued both Europe and the United States.Italy in particular, was shoved into the spotlight. Public sparring last week between Italy's prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, and finance minister Giulio Tremonti heightened fears that the debt crisis in Greece and Portugal was spreading to the continent's third-largest economy."Beware." Tremonti was quoted as saying by Italian newspapers, in response to rumors that he might resign. "If I fall, then Italy falls. If Italy falls, then so falls the euro. It is a chain."Global investors are concerned that Tremonti -- credited with saving Italy from the worst of the euro zone's debt crisis -- will be forced out of the government, after his push for steep spending cuts was met with resistance from the prime minister and other cabinet members.That raises fears that Italy's government is not as committed to enacting necessary austerity measures, as Greece or other debt-stricken euro zone countries."What we need to see in Italy is some concrete and clear demonstration that they're not going to be backsliding on austerity -- and that Tremonti will not lose his job," said Peter Westaway, chief European economist with Nomura.Check world marketsIn what Italian media dubbed "Black Friday," Italian stocks and bond yields plummeted at the end of last week, and trading was suspended for some Italian bank stocks following sharp sell-offs."What we're seeing over the last few days in Italy is investors are already starting to speculate against Italy," Westaway said. "I don't think policymakers can sit on their hands any longer and just hope contagion doesn't happen."The selling continued Monday amid fears that those banks won't be able to pass euro zone stress tests -- the results of which will be published Friday. Of the 91 European banks that will undergo the stress tests, about 15 are expected to fail.Shares of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) fell more than 5%, while shares of Bank of Ireland (IRE), Barclays (BCS) and Deutsche Bank (DB) all slumped more than 4%.Jitters about the debt crisis spilled over to Europe's major stock indexes, sending Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) down 1%, Germany's DAX (DAX) falling 2.3% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) tumbling 2.7%.The European Council called an emergency meeting Monday to discuss the continent's debt crisis, ahead of an already scheduled meeting of the eurozone's 17 finance ministers.Why a problematic Portugal mattersMoody's Investors Service downgraded Portugal's debt last week, and two weeks ago, Greece agreed to implement painful austerity measures in exchange for another round of bailout funding.U.S. markets: American investors got little comfort from lawmakers, who failed to strike a deal on raising the government's debt ceiling.Ratings agencies have warned, If the ceiling isn't raised by Aug. 2, the country's pristine credit rating could fall, potentially sending shock waves rippling through the world economy.In midday trading, the Dow Jones industrial average (INDU), the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Nasdaq (COMP) were all down more than 1%, with shares of JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) all down roughly 3%.Asian markets: Stocks ended the day mostly lower in Asia, as investors mulled over reports on China's inflation rate and trade balance.The Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong tumbled 1.7% and Japan's Nikkei 225 (NKY) fell 0.7%. But the Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) in China inched up 0.2%. 
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195930
Mirae Asset TIGER Synth-EURO STOXX 50 ETF(H)
+3
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5 months ago
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Credit Default Swaps: The Next Crisis?(March 17, 2008)
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284430
Samsung KODEX 200 US Treasury Notes Balanced ETF
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5 months ago
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Credit Default Swaps: The Next Crisis?(March 17, 2008)
As Bear Stearns careened toward its eventual fire sale to JPMorgan Chase last weekend, the cost of protecting its debt, through an instrument called a credit default swap, began to rise rapidly as investors feared that Bear would not be good for the money it promised on its bonds. Not familiar with credit default swaps? Well, we didn’t know much about collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) either — until they began to undermine the economy. Credit default swaps, once an obscure financial instrument for banks and bondholders, could soon become the eye of the credit hurricane. Fun, huh?The CDS market exploded over the past decade to more than $45 trillion in mid-2007, according to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association. This is roughly twice the size of the U.S. stock market (which is valued at about $22 trillion and falling) and far exceeds the $7.1 trillion mortgage market and $4.4 trillion U.S. treasuries market, notes Harvey Miller, senior partner at Weil, Gotshal & Manges. “It could be another — I hate to use the expression — nail in the coffin,” said Miller, when referring to how this troubled CDS market could impact the country’s credit crisis.Credit default swaps are insurance-like contracts that promise to cover losses on certain securities in the event of a default. They typically apply to municipal bonds, corporate debt and mortgage securities and are sold by banks, hedge funds and others. The buyer of the credit default insurance pays premiums over a period of time in return for peace of mind, knowing that losses will be covered if a default happens. It’s supposed to work similarly to someone taking out home insurance to protect against losses from fire and theft.Except that it doesn’t. Banks and insurance companies are regulated; the credit swaps market is not. As a result, contracts can be traded — or swapped — from investor to investor without anyone overseeing the trades to ensure the buyer has the resources to cover the losses if the security defaults. The instruments can be bought and sold from both ends — the insured and the insurer.All of this makes it tough for banks to value the insurance contracts and the securities on their books. And it comes at a time when banks are already reeling from write-downs on mortgage-related securities. “These are the same institutions that themselves have either directly or through subsidiaries invested in the subprime market,” said Andrea Pincus, partner at Reed Smith LLP. “They’re suffering losses all over the place,” and now they face potentially more losses from the CDS market.Indeed, commercial banks are among the most active in this market, with the top 25 banks holding more than $13 trillion in credit default swaps — where they acted as either the insured or insurer — at the end of the third quarter of 2007, according to the Comptroller of the Currency, a federal banking regulator. JP Morgan Chase, Citibank, Bank of America and Wachovia were ranked among the top four most active, it said.Credit default swaps were seen as easy money for banks when they were first launched more than a decade ago. Reason? The economy was booming and corporate defaults were few back then, making the swaps a low-risk way to collect premiums and earn extra cash. The swaps focused primarily on municipal bonds and corporate debt in the 1990s, not on structured finance securities. Investors flocked to the swaps in the belief that big corporations would seldom go bust in such flourishing economic times.The CDS market then expanded into structured finance, such as CDOs, that contained pools of mortgages. It also exploded into the secondary market, where speculative investors, hedge funds and others would buy and sell CDS instruments from the sidelines without having any direct relationship with the underlying investment. “They’re betting on whether the investments will succeed or fail,” said Pincus. “It’s like betting on a sports event. The game is being played and you’re not playing in the game, but people all over the country are betting on the outcome.”But as the economy soured and the subprime credit crunch began expanding into other credit areas over the past year, CDS investors became jittery. They wondered if the parties holding the CDS insurance after multiple trades would have the financial wherewithal to pay up in the event of mass defaults. “In the past six to eight months, there’s been a deterioration in market liquidity and the ability to get willing buyers for structured finance securities,” causing the values of the securities to fall, said Glenn Arden, a partner at Jones Day who heads up the firm’s worldwide securitization practice and New York derivative.The situation is already taking a toll on insurers, who have been forced to write down the value of their CDS portfolios. American International Group, the world’s largest insurer, recently reported the biggest loss in the company’s history largely due to an $11 billion writedown on its CDS holdings. Even Swiss Reinsurance Co., the industry’s largest reinsurer, took CDS writedowns in the fourth quarter and warned of more to come in the first quarter of 2008.Monoline bond insurance companies, such as MBIA and Ambac Financial Group Inc., have been hit the hardest as they scramble to raise capital to cover possible defaults and to stave off a downgrade from the ratings agencies. It was this group’s foray out of its traditional municipal bonds and into mortgage-backed securities that caused the turmoil. A rating downgrade of the monoline companies could be devastating for banks and others who bought insurance protection from them to cover their corporate bond exposure.The situation is exacerbated by the heavy trading volume of the instruments, the secrecy surrounding the trades, and — most importantly — the lack of regulation in this insurance contract business. “An original CDS can go through 15 or 20 trades,” said Miller. “So when a default occurs, the so-called insured party or hedged party doesn’t know who’s responsible for making up the default and if that end player has the resources to cure the default.”Prakash Shimpi, managing principal at Towers Perrin, downplays this risk, noting that contractual law requires both parties to inform and get approval from the other before selling the CDS policy to someone else. “These transactions don’t take place on a handshake,” he said. Still, being unregulated, there is no standard contract, no standard capital requirements, and no standard way of valuating securities in these transactions. As a result, Pincus said she wouldn’t be surprised to see a surge in litigation as defaults start happening. “There’s a lot of outcry right now for more regulation and more transparency,” said Pincus.A meltdown in the CDS market has potentially even wider ramifications nationwide than the subprime crisis. If bond insurance disappears or becomes too costly, lenders will become even more cautious about making loans, and this could impact everyone from mortgage-seekers to municipalities that need money to fix roads and build schools. “We’re seeing players in all of those spaces being more circumspect about whose credit they’re going to guarantee and what exactly the credit obligation is,” said Ellen Marshall, partner at Manatt, Phelps & Phillips LLP.Shimpi admits a meltdown or even a slowdown in the CDS market would affect the amount and cost of liquidity in the market. However, he dismisses concerns that municipalities and others seeking capital could be left in the dust. “Even if the U.S. takes a hit, there are other markets in the world that have different dynamics, and capital flows are international,” he said.Still, most agree the potential repercussions are far-reaching. “It’s the ripple effects, the domino effects” that are worrisome, said Pincus. “I think it’s [going to be] one of the next shoes to fall” in the credit crisis. Miller said the subprime debacle, rising unemployment, record-high oil prices, and now CDS market troubles “have all the makings of the perfect storm…. There are some economists who say this could be another 1929 — but I don’t believe it,” he said. “We have a lot of safeguards built into the system that did not exist in 1929 and 1930.” None of them, though, are directly targeted at CDS. On Wall Street, innovators are always ahead of regulators. And that can sometimes have a very steep price.
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The Nerds' Secret Formula? Beating the Market with Just 3 Stocks a Week
Ever dreamed of outperforming the market? Beating the S&P 500, not just following it?Meet the algorithm developed by the SellSmart team, and its concept is as bold as its name — "When Nerds Rule the World."This isn’t your usual “find a well-balanced stock” strategy. Instead, this model handpicks hidden gems — stocks that shine in their sectors at the right moments. Every week, it selects 3 top-performing stocks from the largest companies in each U.S. sector. Can this strategy really lead us to profits?Actually, the results speak for themselves.If you had followed the algorithm since the beginning of the year:S&P 500 Index: 1000 (Jan 1) → 953.3 (Mar 31)SellSmart Algorithm: 1000 (Jan 1) → 1021.5 (Mar 31)While the S&P 500 fell about 4.67%, this algorithm delivered a 2.15% gain — outperforming the market by over 7% during a turbulent period. Luck? Probably not. This seems more like the power of systematic, nerdy discipline.And this week’s picks?📌 JPMorgan (Selected since Jan 6)📌 Tesla (Selected since Jan 13)📌 ??? (Revealed tomorrow)Notice something? The same names stick around. That’s another feature of the model — stocks often stay in the list for 3–4 months. Consistency with confidence.Want to see which stock completes this week’s list? Check back tomorrow on SellSmart and find out if this "nerdy formula" could give your portfolio an edge.
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