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Earnings Season Begins: What’s the Upside Potential for JPMorgan?

created At: 4/11/2025

Neutral

This analysis was written from a neutral perspective. We advise you to always make careful and well-informed investment decisions.

JPM

JPMorgan Chase

Fact

EPS beat >15% → +2.0% average return (1M), 67% chance of gain → +6.8% average return (3M), 63% chance of gain EPS miss >5% → –3.2% average return (1M), 58% chance of decline

Opinion

JPMorgan earnings surprises historically result in a slow but steady positive trajectory over the medium term, while negative surprises tend to trigger sharp, short-term downside moves. The reaction pattern emphasizes sentiment momentum more than intraday volatility.

Core Sell Point

A strong beat may support a gradual rally over the following 3 months, while a significant miss could lead to further downside in the near term, outweighing short-lived rebound attempts.

Q1 2025 Earnings Preview – JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
Earnings Date: Friday, April 11, 2025

How Does JPM Stock React to Earnings Surprises?

When JPMorgan posts a positive earnings surprise

(EPS beats consensus by 15% or more)

Average return after 1 month: +2.0%
Probability of gain after 1 month: 67%
Average return after 3 months: +6.8%
Probability of gain after 3 months: 63%

While the short-term upside is moderate, sustained strength over a 3-month horizon is typical when earnings are clearly strong.

When JPMorgan posts a negative earnings surprise

(EPS misses by more than 5%)

Average return after 1 month: –3.2%
Probability of decline after 1 month: 58%

Earnings misses tend to trigger an immediate downside reaction, with increased risk of continued weakness rather than swift recovery.

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