Q1 2025 Earnings Preview – JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
Earnings Date: Friday, April 11, 2025
(EPS beats consensus by 15% or more)
Average return after 1 month: +2.0%
Probability of gain after 1 month: 67%
Average return after 3 months: +6.8%
Probability of gain after 3 months: 63%
While the short-term upside is moderate, sustained strength over a 3-month horizon is typical when earnings are clearly strong.
(EPS misses by more than 5%)
Average return after 1 month: –3.2%
Probability of decline after 1 month: 58%
Earnings misses tend to trigger an immediate downside reaction, with increased risk of continued weakness rather than swift recovery.
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