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AI-Driven Rally? Analysts See Up to 73% Upside in Key AI Stocks (May 11, 2025)

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AI-Driven Rally? Analysts See Up to 73% Upside in Key AI Stocks (May 11, 2025)

The Big Picture: AI as the Fourth Industrial RevolutionAI has been dubbed the Fourth Industrial Revolution, expected to impact society as deeply as steam engines, electricity, and the internet once did.Daniel Ives, Senior Equity Analyst at Wedbush Securities, sees AI as the biggest tech shift in four decades. He estimates the global AI market will reach $407 billion by 2027 and $1.81 trillion by 2030, with a 36% CAGR.While AI isn't entirely new, the mainstream adoption of tools like ChatGPT sparked a wave of public and corporate interest. The development cycle of AI now includes infrastructure buildout (data centers, power systems), training on hyperscaler cloud platforms, cybersecurity, and finally, delivery to end users via software and apps.Wedbush's AI Winners: Sector Breakdown1. Semiconductors & HardwareThese companies build the computing infrastructure that supports AI data centers.Nvidia leads in supplying GPUs for both gaming and data centers, and is a key player in autonomous vehicles.AMD provides CPUs for gaming and computing and is another critical supplier.2. HyperscalersThese cloud giants provide the backbone for AI development and deployment.Microsoft: Its Office suite is integrating AI tools, while Azure is a favorite among enterprise clients.Alphabet (Google): Despite facing competition in AI search and advertising, its growing cloud segment remains under scrutiny from investors.3. Consumer InternetThese firms monetize AI through tools, automation, search optimization, and AI integration in hardware.Apple is building “Apple Intelligence” with a focus on privacy and ecosystem loyalty, though tariff concerns have weighed on its stock.Meta Platforms is improving ad targeting and developing large language models to rival ChatGPT and Gemini.4. CybersecurityCyberattacks are expected to cost companies $23 trillion by 2027.Palo Alto Networks is a prime beneficiary, with a unified platform that Wedbush sees as a key to growing market share.5. SoftwareSoftware bridges AI technology and business adoption.Palantir combines AI and big data analytics for enterprise and government clients. After a strong April, it's trading above consensus target prices.Salesforce is favored for its Agentforce platform enabling autonomous enterprise tools.IBM continues heavy AI investment to drive productivity improvements.6. Autonomous & RoboticsAI is transforming robotics and self-driving vehicles from fiction to reality.Tesla remains a high-profile name in autonomy through its Optimus robot and self-driving systems. However, its near-term EV sales outlook is weak.ConclusionAI is powering a multi-industry transformation, and leading companies are strategically positioned across the value chain—from chips and cloud to software and security. While the long-term growth potential remains massive, investors should be mindful that near-term price surges in certain names reflect high expectations. Selective, fundamentals-based exposure is essential in navigating the next phase of the AI revolution.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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The Cloud Wars: OpenAI May Be the Key Battlefield

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The Cloud Wars: OpenAI May Be the Key Battlefield

Q1 2025 Cloud Earnings SnapshotAI fuels Azure’s momentumMicrosoft, AWS, and Google Cloud have all reported robust cloud earnings for Q1 2025. While AWS remains the market leader, Microsoft and Google Cloud posted stronger growth rates, suggesting shifting dynamics in the cloud infrastructure war.1. Global Cloud Market Overview – Q1 2025Total enterprise cloud infrastructure spending hit $94 billion, up 23% YoYSynergy Research’s John Dinsdale: “We’re seeing a clear acceleration in growth across the top cloud providers”Combined market share of the top 3 (AWS, Microsoft, Google): 63%2. Individual Provider Performance – Q1 2025*Note: Microsoft does not report Azure revenue separately; figures are from its Intelligent Cloud segment.AWS: Market leader but losing share (31% in Q1 2024). CEO Andy Jassy emphasized custom silicon (Trainium2) and Bedrock’s flexibility to reduce AI deployment costs.Microsoft: Azure revenue growth 33%, outperforming peers. CEO Satya Nadella highlighted innovation across the stack—from AI infrastructure to applications.Google Cloud: Grew fastest among the top three (28%), buoyed by Gemini 2.5 model rollout. CEO Sundar Pichai stressed Alphabet’s “full-stack AI approach.”3. Why Azure is Outpacing Its RivalsAzure’s 33% growth outpaced AWS and GCP, according to UBSOpenAI may be a key contributor to Azure’s surge, based on a long-term Azure usage deal worth up to $25 billionMicrosoft reportedly powers OpenAI services like Cosmos DB, and UBS suggests OpenAI could now be a major native Azure consumerUncertain macro outlook: UBS warns that AWS and GCP’s slower growth could reflect early signs of a cloud spending slowdown, triggering downward revisions in growth forecasts4. Other Cloud PlayersAlibaba: 4%Oracle: 3%Salesforce, IBM, Tencent, Huawei: 2% eachConclusionThe Q1 2025 cloud market shows continued momentum overall. AWS still leads, but Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud are closing the gap with faster growth. Among them, Microsoft Azure has emerged as the fastest-growing platform, likely driven by its deepening relationship with OpenAI, a major AI infrastructure consumer.Still, looming macroeconomic concerns—such as enterprise IT budget constraints—could temper future growth across the sector. For now, Azure's AI-driven momentum makes it a standout in the cloud arena.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Amazon Hit by Tariff Shock as Chinese Sellers Begin to Exit (Apr 11, 2025)

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Amazon Hit by Tariff Shock as Chinese Sellers Begin to Exit (Apr 11, 2025)

The U.S. administration’s aggressive tariff policy is beginning to disrupt Amazon’s core revenue engine. Approximately 70% of products sold on Amazon are estimated to originate from China, and rising tariff costs are eroding seller margins, leading some to raise prices or add “import surcharges.” A growing number of Chinese sellers are now preparing to exit the U.S. market entirely.For sellers manufacturing in China, the inability to fully pass on tariffs to consumers is forcing margin compression. Even if alternative production sites are considered, manufacturing costs often double, making the transition economically unfeasible. These pressures are spreading across Amazon’s third-party ecosystem.Amazon’s business model is highly reliant on third-party seller fees (23%) and first-party product sales (38%), meaning that a seller exodus could translate into direct profitability pressure. With limited contribution from high-margin segments like advertising (8%) and AWS cloud services (16%), the seller-driven disruption presents a material risk to Amazon’s near- and mid-term earnings.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Goldman Sachs Report: Magnificent 7 Decline and 2025 S&P 500 Target Cut (Mar 11, 2025)

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Goldman Sachs Report: Magnificent 7 Decline and 2025 S&P 500 Target Cut (Mar 11, 2025)

Goldman Sachs has revised its 2025 S&P 500 target downward, citing weakness in the Magnificent 7 (Mag 7), economic uncertainty, and policy risks.1. Magnificent 7: From Dominance to Decline?Past Performance (2023):Mag 7 contributed to over half of the S&P 500’s 25% annual return, driving market gains.Current Crisis (March 2025):Mag 7 plunged 14% in three weeks, triggering a broader S&P 500 decline.Some analysts have started calling them the "Maleficent 7."Key Factors Behind the Decline:Policy Uncertainty: Potential tariff hikes are dampening investor confidence.Economic Slowdown Concerns: Growth forecasts are weakening, adding to investor anxiety.Hedge Fund Unwinding: Heavy long positions in Mag 7 are being liquidated, accelerating the sell-off.Market Implications:A market heavily reliant on a few large-cap tech stocks is vulnerable to volatility.Investors may need to diversify away from Mag 7 to reduce risk exposure.2. S&P 500 2025 Target CutGoldman Sachs now targets 6,200 for year-end 2025, down from 6,500 (-4%).Reasons for the Revision:Lower P/E Ratio Assumption:Cut from 21.5x to 20.6x amid heightened risk.Reduced EPS Growth Forecast:2025 EPS growth outlook cut from 9% to 7% (2026 remains at 7%).Macroeconomic Backdrop:U.S. GDP Growth Slowing: Goldman’s economic team revised growth projections downward.Tariff Increases Expected: Rising tariffs could erode corporate earnings.Higher Uncertainty: Political and economic risks are raising the equity risk premium.Supporting Data:Despite the cut, the new target still suggests an 11% upside from current levels.Goldman now forecasts 2025 EPS at $262 and 2026 EPS at $280, below consensus estimates.3. Additional ConsiderationsImpact of Tariffs:A 5% tariff increase could reduce S&P 500 EPS by 1-2%, assuming firms pass most costs to consumers.Market Risk Indicators:The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has surged.The spread between S&P 500 earnings yield and real 10-year Treasury yield has widened.ConclusionThe decline of Mag 7 and the S&P 500 target cut reflect Goldman Sachs' cautious stance on U.S. equities.Rising policy risks, slowing growth, and increased volatility signal a more uncertain market environment.Investors should focus on risk management and portfolio diversification in response to these shifts.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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Economy & Strategy

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Should We Sell Tech Stocks Exposed to Tariffs? (Apr 4, 2025)

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Should We Sell Tech Stocks Exposed to Tariffs? (Apr 4, 2025)

Since President Trump's tariff announcement on April 2, tech stocks have struggled to find their footing. But some companies are clearly in deeper trouble than others.In particular, hardware-focused tech firms with globally distributed supply chains are scrambling to assess the impact. While some tariffs may eventually be reduced through negotiation, the worst-case scenario would see elevated import duties remain in place — potentially triggering retaliatory tariffs from other countries.Current tariff rates include:China: 54% (including pre-existing 20%)Vietnam: 46%India: 26%Taiwan: 32%Malaysia: 24%These countries are key manufacturing hubs for smartphone components, according to Morningstar equity analyst Phelix Lee.Gil Luria, Head of Tech Research at D.A. Davidson, said:“This is the most significant shift in economic outlook since the onset of COVID-19.”As investors assess how tariffs could impact valuations, risk tolerance is becoming a decisive factor. Those unable to stomach volatility or navigate prolonged uncertainty may shy away from hardware-heavy tech names.For those choosing to stay in the game, it’s worth closely watching companies exposed to imported hardware.According to J.P. Morgan's April 3 report, PCs are expected to face the largest price hikes, followed by servers and networking equipment.While the administration says chips will be excluded from the latest tariffs, many semiconductors are embedded in finished goods like PCs and servers — meaning indirect exposure is still significant.J.P. Morgan analysts noted that many tech companies had already begun adjusting supply chains and fine-tuning pricing models in anticipation of tariffs. However, the unexpectedly steep increases may force firms to accelerate reshoring efforts, which come at a high cost. Executives must now weigh whether these tariffs are a negotiation tactic or a long-term policy.Luria observed:“There was a lot of knee-jerk selling — you could see that in real time. But there’s also paralysis. If I like a company like Apple for the long term — if I believe people will continue buying iPhones and using more services — then I still want to own it. I don’t believe this is permanent.”Pinpointing the exact impact is difficult, as it depends on a company’s sourcing geography — and that information isn’t always disclosed to the market.J.P. Morgan estimates that, for hardware-centric firms, the blended effective tariff rate is around 30%, which could cut gross margins by 10% unless prices are raised.Company-Specific Estimates:Apple Inc.~80% of revenue from hardwareWould need to raise prices 6% globally to offset the impactDell Technologies Inc.75% hardware revenueWould require a 11% global price hike to maintain marginsCisco Systems Inc.34% hardware exposureEstimated 6% price increase neededSuper Micro Computer Inc.100% hardware revenueNeeds just 4% global price hike due to supply chain structureHewlett Packard Enterprise Co.62% hardware revenueEstimated 6% price increaseQualcomm Inc.Only 3% of hardware revenue affectedNo price increase requiredBig tech firms building out massive data centers — like Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon — may also scale back capex as hardware costs surge.Luria noted:“These companies were building AI infrastructure far ahead of demand, made possible by strong core businesses and healthy cash flow. In a weaker economy, with declining demand for goods and services, they’ll likely pull back on those investments.”[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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S&P 493: A More Stable Investment Than the Magnificent 7 Amid Trade Risks? (Mar 24, 2025)

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S&P 493: A More Stable Investment Than the Magnificent 7 Amid Trade Risks? (Mar 24, 2025)

Trade Policy Uncertainty and Its Impact on U.S. EquitiesAs trade policy risks continue to escalate, concerns are rising that the Magnificent 7 (Mag. 7) tech giants could be more vulnerable to global economic slowdown and trade barriers. Meanwhile, the remaining S&P 493 stocks—those outside the Mag. 7—may offer relative stability, given their lower dependence on foreign revenue.Lower Foreign Revenue Exposure in S&P 493According to Goldman Sachs, Mag. 7 companies generate 49% of their revenue from international markets, while Nasdaq 100 (NDX) firms have a similarly high exposure of 46%.In contrast,S&P 493 derives only 26% of its revenue from foreign markets, whileS&P 500 (SPX) overall sits at 28%.Russell 2000 (RUT) and S&P MidCap 400 (MID) have even lower foreign revenue exposure at 21% and 25%, respectively—highlighting their more domestic-focused nature.Mag. 7’s Exposure to Global Trade RisksTech giants such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, and NVIDIA have significant exposure to international markets, particularly in Asia and Europe. This makes them highly susceptible to any U.S. trade protectionism or geopolitical tensions.On the other hand, S&P 493 companies are more insulated from trade volatility, as they derive a larger share of their revenue from the domestic U.S. economy.Investment ImplicationsWith trade policy shifts potentially driving short-term market volatility, investors should carefully assess the risks associated with high foreign revenue dependence and consider strategic portfolio adjustments toward domestic-focused companies.[Compliance Note]All posts by Sellsmart are for informational purposes only. Final investment decisions should be made with careful judgment and at the investor’s own risk.The content of this post may be inaccurate, and any profits or losses resulting from trades are solely the responsibility of the investor.Core16 may hold positions in the stocks mentioned in this post and may buy or sell them at any time.

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