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Amid persisting uncertainty over the Trump administration’s tariff policy, major Wall Street institutions are collectively lowering their year-end forecasts for the U.S. stock market.

Barclays cut its S&P 500 year-end target significantly from 6,600 to 5,900, implying the index may not rise much beyond last year’s closing level of 5,881.63. Barclays’ base-case scenario assumes “no recession, but earnings hit by tariffs,” assigning a 60% probability to this outlook. In this scenario, high tariffs on China would remain in place without further escalation, while a 5% reciprocal tariff would be applied to other countries.

Goldman Sachs also trimmed its target from 6,500 to 6,200, citing concerns over slower economic growth and weaker corporate earnings due to rising tariffs. RBC Capital Markets followed suit, lowering its target from 6,600 to 6,200, signaling a broader shift toward caution across Wall Street.

While a bullish case sees the index reaching 6,700, the likelihood is low at just 25%, given limited prospects for tariff rollbacks. On the downside, a worsening tariff shock could drag the index down to 4,400, reflecting growing anxiety over prolonged policy uncertainty and its impact on investor sentiment.

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