
Powell Pushes Back on Concerns of Prices Rising, Overheating(2021년 2월 25일)
created At: 2/12/2025

Sell
This analysis includes a sell recommendation. Please carefully review all mentioned risk before proceeding.
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Fact
Powell states economy far from maximum employment
Fed expects inflation rise due to "base effects" and reopening
Fed aims for 2% average inflation over time
Goal may take more than three years to achieve
Powell cites car prices rising due to chip shortage
Fed views current policy as accommodative
Markets expecting additional fiscal stimulus
Treasury yields and commodity prices rising
Opinion
The Fed's stance shows troubling signs of potential policy error. While Powell dismisses inflation concerns as temporary, the combination of fiscal stimulus, supply chain constraints, and accommodative monetary policy creates conditions for sustained price pressures. Most concerning is how the Fed appears to be downplaying asset price elevation and commodity inflation, reminiscent of similar dismissals before previous inflation episodes. The three-year timeline for reaching inflation goals seems optimistic given current pressures.
Core Sell Point
The Fed's dismissal of inflation risks while maintaining extremely accommodative policy despite rising asset prices and supply constraints suggests potential for an inflation surge that could force more aggressive tightening than markets currently expect.
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