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박재훈투영인 프로필 사진박재훈투영인
IEA, 중동 긴장 고조로 유가 상승... 석유 수요 성장 전망 하향 (2024-04-12)
최초 작성: 2025. 1. 25.
중립
중립
이 글은 중립적 관점에서 작성된 분석글입니다. 투자는 항상 신중한 판단 하에 진행하시기 바랍니다.
IMO
Imperial Oil
MGY
Magnolia Oil Gas Class A
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Fact
IEA가 2024년 석유 수요 성장 전망을 일일 120만 배럴로 10만 배럴 하향 조정 2025년에는 110만 배럴로 추가 둔화 전망 하향 사유: OECD 국가들의 수요 부진, 코로나 회복 효과 소멸, EV 판매 증가 중동 지정학적 리스크로 브렌트유 90.62달러, WTI 86.07달러 기록 주요 공급 리스크: 중동 긴장(이란-이스라엘), 홍해 유조선 공격, 러시아-우크라이나 분쟁
Opinion
현재 유가 시장은 상반된 두 가지 힘이 작용하고 있습니다. 수요 측면에서는 전기차 보급 확대와 선진국의 에너지 효율화로 장기적 하락 압력이 작용하는 반면, 공급 측면에서는 지정학적 리스크가 단기적 상승 압력을 만들고 있습니다. 특히 중국과 유럽의 전기차 시장 성장은 구조적인 수요 감소 요인으로 작용할 것으로 보입니다.
Core Sell Point
석유 시장이 단기적 공급 리스크와 장기적 수요 감소라는 상반된 압력에 직면해 있으며, 이는 전통적인 수급 모델의 변화를 시사합니다.

The International Energy Agency on Friday downgraded its forecast for 2024 oil demand growth, citing “exceptionally weak” OECD deliveries, a largely complete post-Covid-19 rebound and an expanding electric vehicle fleet. In its latest monthly oil market report, the IEA said it had revised down the forecast by around 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.2 million bpd. The global energy watchdog said it expected the pace of expansion to decelerate even further to 1.1 million bpd next year “as the post-Covid 19 rebound has run its course.” The IEA’s report comes amid a rebound in oil prices on elevated Middle East tensions, with energy market participants closely monitoring the prospect of supply disruptions from the oil-producing region. Iran, which is a member of OPEC, has vowed to retaliate after it accused Israel of bombing its embassy in the Syrian capital of Damascus earlier this month. The attack has ratcheted up tensions in a region already grappling with the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack. International benchmark Brent crude futures with June delivery traded 1% higher at $90.62 per barrel on Friday at 10:00 a.m. in London, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures with May delivery rose 1.2% to trade at $86.07 per barrel. “We’re seeing the surge in [electric vehicle] sales, especially in China and also in Europe, really taking into gasoline demand, but also in the United States,” Toril Bosoni, head of the oil industry and markets division at the IEA, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Friday. “There has been a lot of talk about sales not increasing as much as maybe was expected, but EV sales and increased fuel efficiencies in the car fleet is lowering gasoline demand, at least in advanced economies and particularly in China.” Asked about some of the main concerns relating to oil supply security, Bosoni replied: “We are watching, obviously, the Middle East very closely. The continued tanker attacks in the Red Sea is of key concern, but also escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, and then we’re seeing tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue, with attacks on Russian refineries.” “So, there are several tension points in the oil market today that we’re watching very closely that could have major impacts ... if there would be any significant outages,” she added.

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