New Street Research가 Nvidia 투자등급을 중립으로 하향
2025년 이후 실적 전망의 불확실성 지적
GPU 매출 성장률이 내년 35%로 둔화될 것으로 예상
목표주가 135달러 설정 (상승여력 5%)
P/E 배수 40배에서 하락 가능성 제기 (2019년 성장률 10% 시기에는 20배였음)
현재 41명의 애널리스트 중 38명 매수, 3명 중립, 0명 매도 의견
Opinion
대부분의 애널리스트들이 긍정적인 의견을 유지하는 상황에서 나온 이번 하향 조정은 AI 열풍이 만든 고평가에 대한 첫 경고신호로 보입니다. 특히 수익성 지표와 과거 밸류에이션을 비교한 점은 적절한 기법이라고 생각합니다.
Core Sell Point
Nvidia의 AI 시장 지배력은 여전히 강력하고 애널리스트 다수가 매수의견을 유지한 점은 주목해 볼만한 합니다.
New Street Research is raising the alarm on shares of Nvidia after the chip giant’s June rally. Analyst Pierre Ferragu downgraded the dominant manufacturer of semiconductors used in artificial intelligence to neutral, citing limited upside. “We downgrade the stock to Neutral today, as upside will only materialize in a bull case, in which the outlook beyond 2025 increases materially, and we do not have the conviction on this scenario playing out yet,” he wrote Friday, noting that revenue models show growth slowing to a mid-teen rate, with graphics process unit revenues rising only 35% next year. Shares of Nvidia have surged 159% so far this year, building on an AI-fueled rally that kicked off in late 2022 when ChatGPT debuted. But Nvidia has pulled back in recent weeks as investors locked in some profits. Any negative opinion on Nvidia is pretty much unheard of these days on Wall Street. Of the 41 analysts covering the stock, 38 give it a buy rating, while three say it is a hold, according to TipRanks.com . No analysts say it is a sell. There was only one other downgrade of Nvidia from buy to hold this year, by Germany’s DZ Bank in May. Given this contrarian outlook, New Street set a $135 price target on Nvidia, assuming a 35 times multiple, in line with its 2019 and early 2020 multiple. The target suggests 5% upside from Wednesday’s close. Ferragu added that Nvidia may run the risk of seeing a lower price-earnings multiple, as it currently trades at 40 times the next 12 months’ earnings. That multiple bottomed at 20 times in 2019 when growth eased to 10%. “The quality of the franchise is nevertheless intact, and we would be buyers again, but only on prolonged weakness,” he wrote.
