Deutsche Bank가 Netflix 투자의견을 보유로 하향
2023년 주가 65% 상승
목표주가는 460달러에서 525달러로 상향
2024년 예상 P/E 32배, 2025년 27배 수준
최근 분기 실적에서 1,310만 명의 구독자 순증(시장 예상 800-900만 명)
광고 사업이 2025년까지 50억 달러 규모로 성장 전망
투자의견 하향 후 장전 거래에서 10.6% 상승해 544.50달러 기록
Opinion
Netflix는 미디어 업계에서 가장 좋은 실적과 성장성을 보여주고 있지만, 현재 주가에 이러한 긍정적 요소들이 충분히 반영되어 있다고 판단됩니다. EPS 성장률이 2024년 38%로 정점을 찍은 후 2025년 21%, 2026년 16%로 둔화될 것으로 예상되는 가운데, 현재의 높은 밸류에이션은 추가적인 멀티플 확장 여력을 제한할 것으로 보입니다. 광고 사업이 새로운 성장 동력이 될 수 있지만, 2024년은 광고 티어 가입자 기반 확대와 국제 영업망 구축에 초점이 맞춰질 것으로 예상됩니다.
Core Sell Point
Netflix의 실적과 성장성은 여전히 강력하지만, 현재의 높은 밸류에이션과 성장률 둔화 전망으로 인해 Deutsche Bank가 투자의견을 하향했습니다
Deutsche Bank is moving to the sidelines on shares of Netflix despite another solid quarter from the streaming giant. Analyst Bryan Kraft views the company as the “best story in media among the vertically integrated producers/programmers/distributors,” but nevertheless downgraded Netflix to a hold rating. He said that its leadership position and good news look “fully priced” in to the stock already after its 65% runup in 2023. NFLX 1D mountain Netflix pops after earnings “Netflix is trading at 32x 2024E / 27x 2025E EPS, which we see as leaving little room for multiple expansion given what we think will be peak EPS growth in 2024 (at 38%); decelerating to 21% and 16% in 2025 and 2026, respectively,” he wrote in a note Wednesday. “It is possible that our estimates could prove too low, but we don’t see step change type revisions ahead for 2024 the way we did when we upgraded the stock back in October 2022 when the market simply didn’t believe paid sharing would succeed,” Kraft added. The downgrade from Deutsche Bank comes in the wake of another strong quarter from the dominant player in entertainment media . Netflix topped revenue estimates and added 13.1 million subscribers, easily topping the 8 million to 9 million additions expected by Wall Street analysts. Looking ahead, Kraft expects advertising to be a “meaningful” contribution to revenue and profitability, and balloon to a $5 billion opportunity. But those tailwinds won’t kick in until 2025. “Advertising remains an opportunity for monetization, but it’s still early days and 2024 will be more about growing the ads tier base and building out the international sales effort than scaling ad revenue in a meaningful way,” he wrote. Along with the downgrade, Kraft boosted the bank’s price target to $525 a share, implying nearly 7% upside from Wednesday’s close, from an earlier target of $460. But Netflix is already surging 10.6% premarket Wednesday, touching $544.50.
