Morgan Stanley가 Bank of America 투자의견을 비중확대에서 중립(equal weight)으로 하향
목표주가는 48달러에서 55달러로 상향 (현재가 대비 18% 상승여력)
2024년 주가 39% 상승
2026년 예상 IB/트레이딩 매출 비중: BofA 27%, Citi 32%, Goldman Sachs 68%
동시에 Bank of New York Mellon과 State Street는 비중확대로 상향
Opinion
Bank of America는 건전한 성장 전략과 엄격한 심사 기준으로 우수한 자산 건전성을 유지하고 있지만, 자본시장 회복 국면에서 상대적으로 덜 수혜를 받을 것으로 예상됩니다. 특히 트럼프 행정부의 금융 규제 완화 가능성이 높아지는 상황에서, 딜메이킹과 자본시장 비중이 높은 경쟁사들이 더 큰 혜택을 받을 것으로 전망됩니다. 또한 금리 상승 시 HTM(만기보유) 자산의 미실현 손실이 현재 860억 달러보다 증가할 수 있다는 점도 우려 사항입니다.
Core Sell Point
Bank of America는 자본시장 비중이 상대적으로 낮아 향후 자본시장 회복 사이클에서 경쟁사 대비 제한적인 수혜가 예상됨에 따라 Morgan Stanley가 투자의견을 하향했습니다
Bank of America will lag its peers in a capital markets recovery cycle, Morgan Stanley predicted. Analyst Betsy Graseck downgraded the bank stock to equal weight from overweight, but raised her price target to $55 from $48. This updated forecast is approximately 18% above Friday’s close. BAC YTD mountain BAC YTD chart Shares of Bank of America have rallied 39% this year. While Bank of America will benefit from a capital markets rebound, Graseck also shared her preference for banks that are more skewed to capital markets, since those names will likely see more upside. In 2026, she estimated that investment banking and trading would only account for 27% of revenue at Bank of America, but 32% and 68%, respectively, at Citi and Goldman Sachs. “In a bear case, BAC is more credit exposed vs. capital markets pure plays,” the analyst wrote. “In a bull case with rising 10 year yield, we expect unrealized HTM [held-to-maturity] losses to rise above current $86B levels which could impact stock performance.” The downgrade comes as a second Trump administration is expected to ease regulations across industries, including finance. While Bank of America could get a boost from that, other banks tied more closely to deal-making and capital markets may get a bigger one. On a positive note, Graseck pointed toward more net interest margin ahead alongside a compelling growth thesis as catalysts for the stock. “BAC’s long held strategy of responsible growth comes with tighter underwriting standards and strong credit quality, as evidenced by lower loan loss ratios than peers under the severely adverse case in the annual Fed stress test,” she wrote. In the same note, Graseck upgraded Bank of New York Mellon and State Street to overweight ratings from equal weight. The analyst pointed to the former’s operating leverage as its “North Star,” while highlighting potential net interest margin expansion as a catalyst for the latter. The stocks have respectively rallied 55% and 27% in 2024.
